 With all this information that we have as Alex introduced how can we then go down to the regional scale and try to do an Assessment that is really local and what we mean for assessment at the regional scale. So just to Bring you to the methodology on how this was done Let's start with another things that was unique for this Latest assessment is the for the first time we can use the word unique unequivocal So it's an equivocal that the human activity are causing climate change We can do this now because we have more evidence. We have longer observational record We have better model and we have much more process understanding. So you start to see that these things comes together they are important and it makes us to move from the From it what it used to be in the past So this is a little bit of the history of the terminology that was going on from the first assessment Reboard until now. So you see that in the first assessment by board the humankind is capable in the second is The balance to just that a discernible human influence on global climate is there on the third We started with the likely confidence interval expression of the confidence we have in Assessing that the human is contributing to the change and we move to the very likely extremely likely now We are today unequivocal So we made a step forward and the other step forward We made is that we could write something like that that climate change is already affecting every region north in multiple way and this change will be Proportional to the warming but how do we really do that? How can we say this is the first time that we can really assess the change on each of the region? And we need to have a methodology the methodology is sketch is represented in these figures here and Exactly what we need to be able to go a such a such Higher resolution scale. Let's say we need to take into consideration To construct the information together with the stakeholder and to take the information many of the things So we need to evaluate the observational data We have the model the literature to understand what is happening then we need to synthesize all this information then we need to Create some distilled climate information and then we need to try to deliver this information through data so on and by Estimating the uncertainty we have we need to use a storyline if it's needed I mean if we want to tell what is the worst case scenario and how likely it is We can use something like storyline and then we can use a good graphic all this information has to be user oriented And to be co-produced with the user so to use a nice catch from Catherine that you will meet this week This is what we do we need to condensate this multiple line of evidence coming from multiple source and try to get a final assessment So let's cut down this in pieces and see how we actually did so the first step for us for all of us working in this process was to Collect the information for each what we call line of evidence So we were asking our self for a specific region in the world that could be South America East Asia Africa North America Do we have enough observation of this specific CID we want to study and if yes For example, we do do we have an attribution study that is telling us that what the observation are showing is due to the Human activity and do we have a projection and which kind of projection do we have? Once the first step is done then we move to the second one and then we assess each of the line of evidence So the confidence the final confidence is obtained from the expert judgment But expert judgment has to take it to account all the tree Line of evidence that we mentioned before so for example We need to ask ourselves do the observed trend agree are they significant do they cover the same period that is very relevant For example for variable like the precipitation are the past trend attributable to the human activity and Are these consistent with what we observe and then last and not least Do the model projection agree and then are these change that we see significant for this region if we can if we are able to say to assess all of this then we can trace all this process in a Fantastic trace mathematics that was just a nightmare for us in which for each region we tried to Note exactly which was the line of evidence Which were the line of evidence we were using and which was the confidence for each of them and then we finally perform the Assessment by using some of the table like the one that Alex showed before but Exactly, what does it mean? So let's try to understand how this process work. I mean, how do we assess this light of evidence? Let's start from the observation. Do we have observed trend? We have observed and we can use a different kind of source. We have Global data set for example This is an observed trend from there for the precipitation. We have original this asset This is temperature and this is again precipitation. How can we reconcile the two? So one is coming from the global one is coming from the region the data set are different are detailing us the same things if yes, if there is a kind of confidence then we can say yes, it's significant if not we have to To be able to say it's not significant. So I cannot use this information in my assessment Then the second step is the attribution. What does it mean to have something attributed to the To the the human activity. So let's think to have some PDF like a distribution of events that belong to the past and then think that some suddenly in a certain point of time You have okay, you have sorry the past and then you can have a future then in a certain point of time Something happened that just follow over there, but it's happening today like for example the flood there been a recent very high damaging flood in Italy There are many usually in the fall season and everywhere else Bangladesh and everywhere else So if these events happen, how can we say if these events belongs to the past or to the future? So this is the question we need to answer So we need to create a framework by which we create a factual and counterfactual Words and we analyze these two words in a way that we can then Attribute these events. There are several way to do this work This is just an example for you. If you're curious, you can use method that are called analog methods So you go and look some atmospheric analog for the specific events. So this is one specific events This is the Mediterranean heat peak on August 2021. So this is for example, the Means a level pressure field. This is the temperature and this is the the total the total precipitation I think and And this basically if I take these events, I will look for analog in the past So I will divide my period the observed period I have in two. I will look for analog in the past and In the more near future I make the difference between the two and try to assess how significant is the difference Like for example in this case the difference in temperature Corresponding to this atmospheric part is quite significant and positive But we can also use another method like a steady more statistical method for which we have a time series of some Observable one CID for example precipitation. This is an example for the Liguria extreme precipitation 2021 we make the same Game we divide our time series in two So and we call it the factual and counterfactual word where the factual word is the word where you live now The counterfactory is the word of the past then we use the extreme value theory We fit our time series and we see how is changing a return period of a specific event And if this change is significant if this is significant this means that these events although is happening In the today world bodies due to the action of the two human actions. So the warm is due to global warming Okay, then we can put all these things together as we have done in the IPCC and then create those observed map and Attributed for which we have three for example CID the heat extreme the heavy precipitation and the drought for each of the region Of the world so the hexagon are the region This is the mad region where we are today and for each of these we can see if the trend is Significant or not. So if the region is colored the trend is significant if you have one two or three dot you have different Confidence for the attribution of these events we can use all this information and then move To the process understanding and climate projection. So once we have the observation the attribution What about the projection can we? understand why our climate model are telling us that for example in the South Southeast South America region, there would be an increase of precipitation in the future So these are the projection coming from the global model from the regional model. What do I do? I need to use all of them. I need to reconcile this with the observation I need to have a mechanism and understanding of what is happening there if I have all the three of them Together with the attribution hopefully then I can be sure that this signal what I see projected in the past in the future. It's With high confidence. So it's very likely that this will be the Projected part I can do this also for another region like the Mediterranean same story. I have my Observation this is the example for the Mediterranean summer warning. I can use my the observation the observation are telling me that the Mediterranean is The trend in the Mediterranean is of warming is in summer. It's quite Heavident then I can use I can look and see if the model can reproduce this trend are the model and the Observation agreeing on this front. I can build the heat map here See how the distribution looks like and then do I have a process that explain? Why is this happening? Yes, I do in this case I can sketch out which is the process that I see the influence of the warm atlantic auction There is there is a influence of the warm atlantic ocean the reduction of the aerosol the drying of the surface That is a positive feedback I can put all these together and then I can say okay this signal It's real. So there is high confidence and I can come up with the final assessment saying that there is high confidence that in the Mediterranean region as Experienced a summer temperature increase in recent decade that is faster than the increase for the north hemisphere summer mean and also there is an eye confidence that this Will keep going on with the global when the global warming level would rise This is the procedures that we have followed for each of the region, but also we made the the step to use not only the time horizon as As a methodology, but also the global warming level of rise on so if I have a signal so if I have the global mean temperature that is rising and then I Have several scenario. I can see one for example for a specific scenario I'm crossing a certain level of global warming level the 1.5 or the 2 and these of course will be in a different window either Closer to us or far away from us So I can use instead of the time reference the global warming reference I can do this because I can track for each of the global warming model from the global for each of the global model, which is the crossing time of the specific global warming level and I can use this new reference framework to Build my assessment if I do this then they come up with a final finding that was That was our regional assessment Point for the SPM in which we say that with further global warming every region is projected to increase Increasingly experienced concurrent multiple change in climatic impact driver change in several climatic impact driver Would be more widespread at two degree compared to one degree and even more widespread for ideal warming So then we can summarize this in some table that are the one that Alex already Explained connecting each CD which it with with each of the region for all the part of the words and then finally We can handle this information as from working group to just ready to the group from from working one to the working group To why it's this not working The animation was not working was just the handling handling of the information from the working one to the working group to and then This gives a nice introduction for the following talk that will come but after coffee. Thank you