 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White. And welcome to our Power Trading Hour with me. And it doesn't matter where you're at. As long as I'm here in the free state of Florida, and we meet at the appointed time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. And what else do you have going on today? Well, I will go through my sit-rep and I have probably my best indicator that the market did find some kind of low. That low is going to happen in the next 24 hours after yesterday's close. Just because the market has stopped going down doesn't mean it's going up. And especially with the damage done in the market, it's going to take a little bit of time. I do suspect that we have a market that's more of a stock pickers. Wasn't expecting a great deal from the indexes today. Was looking for the opportunity to buy some things that I think can do well in the coming year. But again, remember those are all going to be, you're going to be sailing into the wind for those people that have ever learned to sail. Sailing with the wind behind your back, of course, a very old saying, maybe the wind be at your back. Why? Because that's the easiest sailing that there is. You really don't have to cut back and forth. You don't have to trade in and out so much. But I think we're probably looking, at least in the next fall, a stock pickers market. But remember that even if you think that this is a bear market, that the market is going to be going up. Maybe only one point a day, but three-fourths of the time, it's going to be going higher at the end of the day. At least the indexes are probably going to be higher. Doesn't mean that they're going to be that much higher. And you can have some kind of significant downturns. But I think that there's a few things going on in the market. A great deal of the hurry up and get out at any cost, I hear from my deep, deep inside sources in the market, which have really never steered me wrong when they passed something along, says that this is because of reduced margin multiples, and especially on these larger hedge funds. As the Fed starts to pull money out, many of these bigger broker-dealers behind these folks have said, you got 30 to 1, you got 35 to 1 margins. We're going to bring that down and you better start right now. And so what we've seen is a bit of that. You've seen the people that are really on the wrong side of many trades, like ARK Investments and seeing the big downturn on those. Apparently the ones that are targeting are the ones that are probably gone after the stocks with the biggest PE multiples. I'm talking about multiples in the hundreds. This one's got 18 and that one's got 16. Of course this week, if there was any theme, it was people running out of high-multiple stocks into medium-multiple stocks. The big names of the Dow, we saw that for a day. As we said earlier, if there's just one thing that you can learn from a trader, probably fairly good, and that's all I learned from Joe Granville is one thing. And that is that if the bonds are going down, people are going to run very temporarily into another part of the market, but it's the Titanic, it's still going down. So am I bearish for the rest of the year? The answer is no. I do suspect that Chairman Powell has learned the lessons that he's been on the Fed for the last, what, almost 10 years now, and President, not that long, that he's not going to do anything to crush the markets. He's certainly going to let the air out, but that air is going to be let out depending on what's necessary. If you're in a stock that needs lots of cash and cash gets harder to get, more than likely those companies are going to go and start issuing shares. Now, these are the same companies that have been buying back shares. This is the opposite side of that where there'll be a larger float, not a smaller float. A great deal of the appreciation of stocks has been these companies like Apple and Microsoft and others, buying their shares back, making less shares available, making it harder for short to stay there, and again a little wind at your back when you have people shorting you and your company's actually not a complete fraud. You make money, you have money in the bank so you don't need money. You're not going to need to issue shares, you may not buy as many back, but there's going to be a real theme I suspect to this year and that is going to be stocks that need less money, that are more stable, the more speculative the stock, the harder it's going to be for it to rally. But I at least talked at Nausium a little bit with my deep inside source, and he's saying that the Fed over Christmas in the first of the year made it fairly plain that these guys that are way out over the tips of their skis are probably going to have to pull a back a bit and of course these are the same companies that drove prices probably beyond any kind of reasonable evaluation, but certainly the more speculative of stocks, those that need to raise cash, are going to be the targets of bear raids this year and those bear raids probably going to be justified and these companies have to issue more shares and we can see. Now, like I said, I don't think the Fed is going to open a trap door and let everybody fall into the pit of despair. The pit of despair? I can't remember my princess bride, but I think it's the pit of despair. It could have been something else. A great princess bride aficionado will email me or put a message in the dip in the den of that, but that's kind of the way I see the market. Doesn't mean that we're at a low. I did buy some stocks this morning. I think that there are some opportunities in individual stocks. I did get some emails asking me about Joe DiNapoli's interview today and I think while not politically correct for some folks, he basically echoed a lot of the same things that I did, although he's much more gun-ho on guns and ammo. See what I did there with the rhyme? Thinking that military stocks are probably a good place to hang out, otherwise known as the defense sector. I went into something that I think is a little bit more defensive and cyber-defensive this morning and it had a nice bounce, but I kind of know that these things are going to fall back. It's not going to take right a long time. There's still a little bit of worry out there and the market has not given me the all clear to the point where I'm betting the farm. I will judiciously and prudently buy stocks as more evidence says they are ready to go higher. We'll be back in a minute. David White is able to find a path of least resistance. David White's trading newsletter, The Path of Least Resistance, is delivered daily before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win. Visit tfnn.com today and subscribe to David White's ultimate trading newsletter for $119 a month and try all of our newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee. Take the path of least resistance at TFNN Educating Investors. Separating you from the most successful men and women on Wall Street. That's right, information. Having all the information gives us the perspective we need to place the right trades at the right time. The TAS Profile Scanner is the premier market-profile-based scanner. 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TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. All now, toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. Talking in the den, somebody actually spent a semester to see a great movie. I can't recommend it highly enough. Of course, I love everything sailing, but if you get a chance to see it, White Squall, the true story of a learning... like a preparatory school on the ocean, circa 1962, and I won't spoil the rest for you, but about 95% true. There were a few liberties. Maybe a very tiny bit, almost everything that they thought that they may have to put in there as a special effect ended up being actually done in dunk tanks. One of the reasons why a great deal of all the special effects in Hollywood ended up in the eastern block of what used to be the Soviet Union. Hungary, Poland, a lot of that stuff, almost all the... That's where I learned that almost everything was leaving Hollywood and moving because it was just so much cheaper to do it outside and they didn't have to pay any attention to the unions, Hollywood unions. So almost everybody, always a very interesting thing to see, the most pro-gun hoe folks when it comes to money. Speed at warp speed away from Hollywood to save a buck. And always interesting. Anyway, great, great, great, great movie. And especially if you love the water. But I remember seeing the movie when it came out with some friends of mine. And at the time I was actually living on a boat. I'll tell you a little bit how much I love the water. But that's it. Anyway, we got a member in the den talking about his time at sea. And of course occasionally I bring it up, but I was on a ship and you'll occasionally see it on the weather channel. Storm stories. But I was on a 279 foot ship that was supposed to be a wedding present. But they dumped us all off in Honduras. And depending on whether you see the long or short version, there's a 30 minute cut and a one hour cut on the weather channel. You'll see it. But 1998 they dumped us off. The ship went off to sea. And was never seen again. Heard from them for a few times on the radio. But nothing like a boat that's actually riveted together at top speed can make five and a half knots trying to outrun some storms. Did very well for about a week and a half. But finally caught up to him. But I'd been on that ship for several times. Maybe that's one of the reasons why that I started going so many on those barefoot cruises. But I knew the captains well. They were twins from England. One had one ship, one had another. But anyway, the Pamponito. No, that's not what I'm thinking of. The Fanto May if you want to look it up on the internet. But yeah, they dumped me off. And never came back. I kind of spoiled my view of the barefoot cruises after that kind of heartbreaking. But man, I think I went on 12 different cruises on those tall ships in the 90s. I really disliked going on those big cruise ships with 4,000 people. But to have 30 people with 35 crew on a 278 foot ship where they would let you help climb the rigging, let you sleep in the widow's peak out front at night. Certainly an experience I love. I think there's still somebody doing it again today. But again, kind of heartbreaking. I'll post a link to it in the den. And I do digress. Oh, a little bit of history. Got to do that and we'll move on. Wow, that was good. And on this day in 1838, Samuel Morris' telegraph system has demonstrated for the first time at Speedwell Ironworks in Morriston, New Jersey, the telegraph revolutionized long-distance communication reaching the height of popularity in the 1920s and 30s. It was slowly replaced by the telephone faxing an email. However, it wasn't until January 2006 at Western Union. Perhaps the most famous telegram company sent its last telegraph. And of course, in any business, you'll always sell your last buggy whip or something else. But on this day in 1838, the start of telecommunications. And of course, figured out a great deal from there. So what else do we have here? Check the emails. Got a few of those. Okay, the pit of spare. Okay, it was the Princess Bride. It was hard to remember. But I think Zach asked another question. Could you discuss your, this is from yesterday, just before the close, your perspective on gaps? I noticed the previous close at the end of the price action is a range indicated simply untreated space. Gaps tend to get filled. They don't tend to get as filled as quickly as they once did. But I think that was a lot of Fed cash coming in over the last 10 years. I think a lot of people are not going to be able to trade markets that aren't just straight up. This is, as they say, everybody's a genius on the way up. This one just longer than most now that the Fed's pulling out cash. Generally, what you're going to find is that a lot of cash went into places that it shouldn't have. And we're going to find out about that. So you better be pretty sure about your company and the way that the market looks at it. But I mostly don't spend a great deal of time on gaps other than gaps up with volume tend to be support. But the big thing is to notice whether or not the story has changed on the stock or the market. And if it hasn't, then a high volume gap that's tested by half the volume is probably about an 80% chance of a really good trade from there. That's really the Wycoff method. And I tend to try that a great deal. That and just a very low volume test and maybe it's higher. We'll be back in a minute and talk a little more about gaps. You having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den Trading Room only at tfnn.com. The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas. Join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world. 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So I sent a link and put it in the den, but it's the Phantom A, F-A, not P-H. Interesting. And yeah, if you watch the weather channel long enough, you'll see me climb into one of the boats on that. This has sound cut off a little bit. Say high volume gaps that are tested on 50% of the volume are 80% likely to break and low volume test holds. I don't have any set up here, but this is the way generally you would want to look at it, and that is the standard Wycoff model is that you get a lot of energy into the stock and generally that's a gap higher. It takes two weeks, three weeks, comes back, fills that gap. All of that is on lighter volume. Let's say you gap up on five million shares, you come back and you test, come into that gap with two and a half million shares. All the time that it's coming back, it's on lighter volume. You don't exceed that big first move. Come back and you get two and a half million, two million, one million shares. And that is the big chance to come back. You fill the gap, you've done it on lighter volume. And yeah, about 80% of the time, you're going to get a fairly decent trade, probably back up to the original high. And it's a lot safer. Wycoff called this, he said there's really two kinds of rallies in stocks. One, he said one that has a lot of preparation and one he would just call an automatic rally. Automatic rallies don't always know. Maybe there's some kind of news that comes out. No one knew about it. Ketch is a lot of short sellers off the wrong side. So you get the real big move and it lasts a handful of days and then it comes back and fills the gap, but there's no volume. The other kind is more like, well, we talked about CCJ yesterday, taking a good look at that. You had a big move higher. It gives it all up in a day. CCJ, right? There we go. Not generally a good sign when you come back, but if you hold that high and it does well and then it pulls back all the way, this is kind of the other side of that coin. You don't want it to give up most of the move almost instantaneously. But this is, when you get into markets that are fairly nervous, anytime something pops, you tend to get a lot of sellers very quickly, which means that if it is a longer term move higher, you're probably going to take a little bit more time that it has in the past to move higher. But I'm trying to think if there's anything else out here that really has some gaps that I'm looking at. Maybe I'll run it along something. But generally you want it to take, if you pop, you want it to take a week or two to come back. You want it to do it on a light volume. And then generally that's where you want to buy the pullback. But there's the other kind. And I guess, you know what I need to do? I need to send you my white paper on Three Gap Plays. It's old, but it pretty much has left the test of time. The other gaps I like to play are Three Gap Plays. And I'll find it during the next break and send it to you, Zach. But also show it on the show here so everybody can see it. But actually a fairly good treatise on what I look for. If you get two gaps higher or lower, I'm going to also say that there's about an 80% chance you get a third gap. And it may take a month to get that third gap, but generally you get it. So I'm one that you get one gap and kind of a coin flip. You get two gaps and I would stay away from the stock unless you're already got a position in it, in which case I almost always wait for the third gap. Not that it's going to happen, but there's a generally an 80% chance you're going to get it. And I sell on that gap higher. My example in my white paper goes back to I think 2013, maybe John and the Den can actually bring it up to me. But I think that's what it was, but it was certainly, which stock was it? I don't think of it in a minute when I find the white paper. But it was exactly what you were looking for, the three-gap play back into the highs. And I'll show it when I come back. We've got a few minutes here. We'll go into some other things. But what do we have here? A question about a Vago. I think this is from yesterday. I have puts in it. I don't see any reason. Did we answer this one? I think, but maybe he didn't tell me he had puts in it. But yeah, I think this is probably coming back to 600 bucks. But he says they expire the 21st. I probably would hold on to him until Tuesday next week and see how the market's doing. But I don't see any reason why I would abandon them today. Look pretty good. 650 puts, they're in the money. You had a big day yesterday, you're doing a little bit. But it's going to take a handful of days to continue moving down lower, I suspect. The market's probably going sideways. A great deal. Okay, that's that. Had a question earlier from a subscriber. It says, is this all you're buying today here? And as I said in the beginning segment, maybe I didn't. I don't, you know, when you have markets that are this violent and this quick moves down, I'm not one to go all in unless this is, you know, taking weeks to set up. But on a couple of days set up, I'll buy some. But I'm not going to, there's nothing yet here that makes me say I want to be 100% longer, short anything at this moment. I'm going to keep my cash and maybe we get lucky and get a super huge blowout, which would mean that I lose a little money now, but probably get the opportunity to buy a whole lot lower. But then I'm just not thinking that a index that are probably stuck around these levels for at least a couple of days. If we're going to start moving up, my guess is probably next Wednesday in the indexes. I have another question about GLD and gold. As I explained yesterday in a down market, even gold tends to go lower for about the first two weeks in a market. You had a little bit of a rally and now you have a reversal. But could I see maybe all the way into expiration before gold really starts getting a hand-hold kick foot? I don't think there's anything really bearish in gold unless you're trading it very short term. But at the same time, I think you're going to have to move your breath for a little while. But probably in a couple of weeks it will. We'll be back in a minute. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa, and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value, or you're in the market for a second home or investment property, Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels. 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The Perspectus or Summary Perspectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. I tend to watch this. It's not a pattern that happens frequently, but I do have a white paper on it because I've made so much money on this pattern when it's worked out, and it works out quite a lot. But as I said, probably the biggest thing I look at in gaps is support and resistance, but kind of really tough. There's more to that. It's one piece of the pie. It's not overwhelming. There is one overwhelming pattern that I love, and that is the proverbial three-gap play. This is the one I have here in Netflix, mostly because I talked about it on air. I executed on it and made a wad of cash in one day, although it continued on. The three-gap play are three big gaps, and on the third big gap, and this is not tiny gaps. These are huge gaps. You'll want to pull the trigger on it short if things look like they're a little bit too rosy out here. Netflix on this day, what is this? October 22nd, looks like it dropped. I'm pretty sure it dropped $100. I think it went from $395 all the way to $300 in one day. I mean, it just absolutely gave it up, and as soon as the market opened, I was short and was buying puts on it. But of course, on a gap higher like that, every body is just throwing up their puts, and we were buying them $0.10 on the dollar. I remember mostly because John from Philadelphia was in there. My gating, I haven't changed anything. If it's anything, it's Skype, so he says I'm taking. Maybe we can reconnect or in the break or something. Well, I haven't touched anyang. I'm looking at all the settings, and they're all where they're supposed to be, and they're all changed here. I've got little marks on all my equipment, so I know exactly where they should be set, and nothing's really changed. Out here. I can turn that up a little bit. Let's see what else we have. Anyway, three-gap play. If you want this, email me at path at tfnn.com. A lot of people look at little tiny gaps, but that's not what you want. You want big gaps, and this gives you a little bit of idea of just how those are. 10%, 24%, 39%. You get to a bubbly top, and those almost always are just huge. They tend to not come back and close those gaps, and they remain open all the way back up. But like I said, that third gap, whether higher or lower, can take a long time to come in, and you may have a little gap in that, and it was kind of a little bit of that, but I think this thing was coming into earnings, and I think that was just a market maker spoof. Someone came out with a downgrade, and it lasted all five minutes, but this gap on number three back on Netflix was kind of like one of those home runs that they hit in the last game of the World Series. You'll never forget it, and one of the reasons why trading, if you can do it well, you'll always remember your first love and the first time that you acted on something that just made you want to throw up, because it was scary, but paid off in spades. Okay, well, if that's working, let's turn it up a little bit more. Okay. Got some more emails here. Let's go ahead and take a look at that. Again, if you want this path at TFNN.com, anyway, three gap play, it can go both up and down, but like I said, the last thing you want to do with two gaps, unless you know something I do not know about a particular stock or index, and you can read that as insider information is do anything before the third gap, even if you have to miss the stock, because so many times it does exactly that, and if you're long, you stay long, you get the third gap, then you're out of it before you can absolutely blink. Okay, what else do we have out here? Two, two, two. Anyway, three gap play, probably the most important thing to learn, because that's where you can lose a lot. 877-927-6648. We've got a couple of minutes left. A couple of questions. GDX. I think anything else is going on. Now, I just think you're down. You got light volume today, a good sign in it. I'm just going to say that gold has a long history of making you just absolutely miserable. And it doesn't mean you're on the wrong side. This means it really tries the patience of folks. And again, you'll always remember, I remember we were in the Tiger's Den and it had to be, I don't know, 2006, 2008, something like that. It was a long time ago, and literally everybody cursed at me when I said I was going long, gold, because they were all sure it was going back to 300 bucks. And I thought there's never a better indicator than when literally everybody tells you something's going lower. But guess what? That always stuck with me in the big moves and the big profits I've always made in gold. Haven't been playing the long trends have been when literally everybody is either bullish or bearish on gold and they become incredibly, what would you call it? I'm going to say despondent or euphoric. But I'm not a big fan of going short gold, but certainly when the people have become absolutely the most despondent in sideways moves like this, it becomes it. But I think maybe mid next week you should look for some kind of significant lows in this. And yeah, I think eventually it's going to turn and not quit going up for years probably. But when that happens, hard to say. 877-927-6648 with one minute left in this segment. We'll take a quick look. I got a question about Apple. He got a little more down today, but volume is starting to shrink. The big problem was you tested the previous high of Apple with 153 million shares with 99. Again, this is a stock that a lot of big hedge funds were driving up by buying it on margin. They're having to sell a bit of it now. And I don't think anything's going to change. I think you're going to find that as the Fed goes through, you're going to find out that you're going to have to see that those multiples that the hedge funds have, 35, 25 to 1 of money are going to be sold. So just get used to it. We'll be back in a minute. 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So if you didn't get your copy of my white paper on Three Gap Plays, make sure and email me once again. But I think I sent them all out. Now, last is a question about British Petroleum. Company I'll always remember because when I moved to Cincinnati, the guy there was a big Ohio kind of guy and decried every day British Petroleum buying its local gas station line and saying that they would never rename it to British Petroleum and leave the old name. And they signed an agreement and promptly within one year renamed everything to British Petroleum. So I knew they were liars and weasels, but I didn't have anything invested in it. But he certainly did. I always remember that. Now on a pattern basis, this gap down on the 2nd of November with almost 19 million shares. You're back up here today with 10 million shares, 13 million shares yesterday and 15 million shares. Yeah, I'd ring the register and I'd be out if this is just a trade. If you've got a longer term one, crude looks like it's probably in a good business. The U.S. government is incredibly hostile to the fossil fuel industry. And that's only going to mean that the people that are willing to stick it to us in the mid-east, Venezuela, the rest are just going to glom on. I have to say that I think this is the single biggest input to the huge problem we have with inflation that when they change that and everybody started raising prices on crude, it has literally gone into everything. Anybody's going to try that again? They've done some stuff. Until we change our policy here, I think the green light on crude as they make sure it's harder and harder to get. See you tomorrow. Same Bat Channel, same Bat Time. Remember to sell when you can, not when you have.