 What's up everybody welcome to this week's video update today's December 6th. Happy Friday in this video We will review all the trades all the alerts. This is exclusively for our pro members. So welcome Let's jump in to the community and check out who got caught being hot this week As I mentioned the women of the trade hacking community are bringing the heat lately another woman trade hacker Congrats Evelyn you got caught being hot and you know I've always I've always kind of thought that it's interesting how there are not more women traders I mean looking at our our numbers and our kind of demographics of our membership I mean, it's literally over 95% men, but and I really think just kind of that there's a closing bell Just kind of the mental makeup of women is actually better suited for trading than men a lot of times But for whatever reason not as many women trades So I love seeing women in the trade hacking community. Keep it up. Congrats Evelyn. You got caught being hot All right, let's Joe. Let's go to the alerts starting with Monday the second First trade was a closing adjusting trade in ZB the bond So we had two different sets of short strangles on in the bonds closed out one of them booked over 50% of max profit on this piece of the trade we're still down overall on the trade but wanted to reduce risk Get rid of this piece books and profits and then and then we'll we'll deal with the other piece Which I'll get to you here in a minute because we had another adjustment to that trade today Next trade was an opening trade in Google So we did a an iron duck in Google at that point with 11 days to expiration We actually took that off today Had such a big move to the upside took that off for the beak profit And so we are actually out of that one instead of holding it all the way to expiration We had less than a 10% chance of getting back to the duckhead. So we went ahead and booked that Next trade opening trade in Roku. So we did a reverse iron duck in Roku had some decent call skew Meaning the calls were trading richer than the put so we were able to do the reverse iron duck Put this on with 11 days to expiration. So let's check. Oh, let's take a look at that one Roku So we've got we've got two pieces in Roku. This is the first one This one actually expires today. So like you heard the closing bell just happened So we'll book beak profits on this of a hundred and twenty two bucks So not not a lot, but hey, you know what? It's a winner No risk to the downside on the reverse and then we've got this one here Where price is just kind of hanging out right here just starting to enter the the duck snout We like to call that so You know if we can just kind of hang out right here get a little bit lower into next week into the end of next week Got a possible chance for a duckhead here. And so that's where we're at in Roku Next trade we've got an opening adjusting trade in Ford slash GC So we opened up an iron condor in GC and then we closed the other one So you can almost think of this as rolling You know, we just moved out to the next cycle You can't a you can't technically roll futures in one transaction and then because an iron condor is a four-legged spread We're not going to roll that we can't roll that in one transaction So it's really just two different things So we entered a new one closed that one out the one that we closed We booked over 50% of max profit on that piece and then so we're still we're still in this gold iron condor Let's take a look at that Price moved down in gold pretty decent today over a percent So you can see prices hanging out right here coming in the lower quadrant, but well inside the The range here on gold Next trade was an opening trade in booking calm BK and G we added a new iron duck in booking Did this one was 17 days to expiration prices moved higher. It's all the way. It's already all the way up the duck beak So we're you know at this point We've got about a 12% chance of getting back into the duckhead and so you know price kind of stays up here Into Monday, we are not going to hold this. I mean like I said, we've got at this point We've got 14 days to expiration. So there's really no reason to hold that for another 14 days We'll go ahead and close that out Monday again per our criteria We like to if there's under 10% chance of getting back to the duckhead. We like to just close those out Next trade closing trade in Shopify. So Shopify got us this week We had two closing trades in Shopify for a couple losers had a massive move up For those of you that were in this trade SHOP It's gonna my three-month daily here. I mean we just had we had this, you know, we got in On this day here and when when the mark was down and it just so it had three rips higher rip rip rip And that's a that's a pretty substantial move. I mean we're talking from you know, depending on where we got in You know 315 up to 370 and in the matter of a couple days, you know You just you can't sustain that even though it's a high probability trade We got smoked out of a couple of those Shopify ducks And we've got another one on so you can't be afraid to jump back in you got to look at kind of every trade as a separate probability I know I know some people say well, I'm not trading Shopify it, you know, I got hurting it last time Well, that doesn't really have anything to do with what it'll do this time But I understand the feeling So anyway, we've got One of one of the next alerts was adding another reverse duck in Shopify So here we are and prices hanging out right here And so, you know, obviously if if Shopify Shopify goes back down We'll collect that big profit if we get a continuation to the upside. Hopefully not too far We, you know, we will have a chance at a duckhead now. This is December 20th. So this isn't even next week We've got 14 days to expiration So we will see what happens in Shopify Shopify owes us some money so hopefully they'll give it back with the next trade or two and Next trade was a closing trade in Ford slash CL oil So we closed out our short strangle booked over 30% of max profit Got a really nice contraction in implied volatility on that day Give us a chance to just get out of that with a nice quick winner Next trade closing trade in Shopify. So that was the second one I mentioned Next trade opening. So this is the one we opened. Sorry. I'm kind of jumping ahead. So we already already covered that That's the one we just showed Next one opening trade in RH. So we did a earnings iron duck in RH This one just had two days to expiration and so this worked out fine for us It it after the announcement price really ran higher. So we were in the duck beak We're gonna collect a duck beak profit And then what happened is last night in the overnight session, which is when it typically happens We got assigned and so what happened is we got assigned on one So we were doing two contracts on the trade We got assigned on one of our 192 half calls now. I know a lot of people in the community were in this trade and I don't know if Anybody else even got assigned, you know, it's kind of it can be kind of random sometimes And so we had two contracts We only got assigned on one of them and so what we did is we just closed out the rest of the trade I So I sent out an alert we had to do it kind of in legs because because it was an odd number versus our even number of Contracts so we just we basically closed out the short stock that we were assigned and we closed out the remaining calls And we just left on this this put vertical spread, which is what you'll see here So that'll just disappear. It'll expire worthless. And so we essentially just booked the Beak profit of that duck overall, you know that a lot of people get a little bit freaked out about assignment We do have a mini course all about options assignment. So make sure you check that out It's not really that big of a deal if you get assigned what we typically do is we just close it out and you know Your risk doesn't change nothing really changes We went it we we ended up just booking that beak profit So it's no different than had it expired We had to pay a couple extra bucks in commission to close those out, but not that big of a deal So this part of trading it's gonna happen from time to time Especially with these trades that you're holding close to expiration It's just part of it when you have in the money options that close to expiration that deep in the money Especially after with our age. I mean look at this huge move up I mean it was so far in the money and that's why we got assigned So not a big deal, but that's what happened in RH by the way if you want to know more about that If you're still not quite sure just based on that brief recap go to the community I posted two different videos one before the market even opened alerting our members about the situation and then well after I closed it and kind of legged out and pieced out I wanted I thought it warranted more Clarification so I recorded another video. So those are in a post in the community So if you have questions about that, feel free to check that out Next trade opening trade in Ulta. So another earnings iron duck and this one kind of same situation It's like Groundhog Day. The market goes up up up up up I don't think it's it's not allowed to go down is what I'm starting to learn So another earnings iron duck in Ulta. So let's take a look at that This is another one that we're just going to let expire. Where's Ulta? There it is So big move up after earnings as you see And here is our iron duck. So price is way out here The options are going to get exercised and assigned Toss in the US doesn't charge any fees for that. So that's why we're not wasting any commission to exit We'll book a profit of 130 which is our Beak profit Next trade closing trade in RUT so we had a weekly double calendar on in rut booked a nice profit of over 450 I think it was 460 to be exact The front week options were set to expire the following day So we kind of look at that as anywhere from one one day or less until expiration We like to get out of that either on expiration day or one day before and so we had some nice profit Didn't want to let that get away. So we went ahead and book that Next trade opening trade in Costco. So we did a pre earnings long straddle In Costco just targeting 15% these are you know, which we just try to book small profits on these You know, we had a nice contraction. Let me show you the chart of Costco a nice contraction in implied volatility And it went even further today But we've got earnings coming up next week, okay So we've got earnings right here on the 12th, I believe Let me double check that yeah 12 12 aftermarket and so look at this implied volatility. It's just it's just contracting So by buying a straddle, we want implied volatility to expand or go higher and we want to a decent Move in the price of the stock. So either decent move down or a decent move up. We don't care So that's what this looks like on the risk profile graph And so you can see prices hanging out right here. We're down a little bit I mean just a huge contraction in implied volatility today So if we can get a little bit of an expansion going in and a price to move one way or another We'll be in good shape and hopefully can book a profit on that before the earnings announcement We do not hold these through earnings. We want to be out before the announcement happens to avoid the IV crush Next trade closing tray. That was the RH one like I showed I bought back those Short shares that we were assigned we bought back the 192 half call And then we are letting the put vertical expire worthless To collect that beak profit And then rolling adjusting trade in ZB So what we did here and by the way, I got a lot of questions on the The role of this from some newer members So when you are trading options on futures and you need to roll those options to the next cycle the exchanges and then hence the brokers don't support Rolling options on futures in one transaction. Okay, so you have to do it in two separate ones And that's why the alert looks like this. So essentially we're buying back our current piece and we're reselling it in the next cycle And then we can adjust our strikes to which is which we did in this case We just are a calls from 164 to 161 kept our puts at 161 And so now we have the short 161 straddle in the next cycle, but you've got to do that in two separate transactions It's a pain. It's not as it's not as easy. It's not as efficient as equities, but it accomplishes the same thing We're buying this back for 330 and we sold it for 436 So you're getting that net credit just like you would if you rolled a an equity Product okay, so it's the same thing just got to do it in two different steps There was also there's very little value left in the calls with bonds moving down So we rolled our calls down and then with just 21 days to expiration We rolled it all out to the next cycle with 49 days to expiration another thing again a reminder the Different brokers display the month title on these options on futures a little bit differently So what what toss labels as Jan and Feb? Tasty works might label as December January So always pay attention to these days to expiration You know, we're always gonna be doing this between that 30 and 60 days to expiration So when you're getting ready to do this make sure you're checking the DTE Not necessarily that what they're calling the actual Future cycle okay Next trade opening adjusting trade in ZW so we added an iron condor in wheat We did have the ability we we well here first of all here's here's the one we just added So we just did this today. So price is right here centered No profit or loss yet. The other piece of this the one in the previous cycle We we certainly could have taken off today, but I just figured hey Let's give it over the weekend see if we can squeeze a little bit more juice out of this But we're over 50% of max profit on this piece and we'll we'll take that off probably first thing on Monday Now we're gonna be kicking ourselves if we get a huge move You know on Sunday night or before the market opens on Monday But you know assuming just kind of normal market action We should be able to squeeze a few more shekels out of this one Next trade and lastly was the closing trade in Google so already mentioned that we put on that iron ducking Google earlier this week And just a few days later booked a big profit and we were out of Google So this can this this market just continues to be super strong I mean what we were looking I put out a video last night just kind of with some thoughts and my Anticipation was after this big flush down. We're getting this little bit of a pullback And I was looking for a potential rollover Knowing that the non-farm payroll and jobs reports were coming out before the cash open today I anticipated downside. Well, that's not what happened. We exploded higher. And so what what now, right? So, I mean nothing nothing changes. I mean that that's simply an assumption, right? And you can play that assumption with different short Delta. We already had some short Delta I didn't I didn't put on any more short Delta based on that Actually, I did in my personal account but not not in the alerts portfolio But so now, you know, what what's happening? Are we off to the races to the upside and just gonna continue to hit new tie after new high after new high? Well, that's certainly an option or we could we could you know still roll over So we'll see what happens, you know, we're we're we're positioned with short Delta So anytime a big rip higher like this happens, you know, obviously that doesn't feel good on those short Delta positions But at the same time if this thing tanks or if it did tank then you you want that short Delta So it's you know, you just need to find that balance of what works well for you right now We're about three to one on our short Delta versus our theta ratio. So and that's beta weighted to spy So for every dollar of theta, we have we have about minus three dollars of Delta's or $3 of short Delta and so we are we are definitely positioned for a downside But we're also, you know, I mean if it does go higher, is that gonna hurt our profits? Yeah, but I also think it's a necessary evil to have so that's the plan I've gone over all the alerts. Let's take a look at some of the other positions starting with four slash six B The the British pound you can see we've had a little bit of a rally in the British pound lately as well And so here is our short strangle that we've got on Still well within range We've got some profit here if we can get a little bit of a bounce back in a little bit more implied volatility Contraction we could get out of this one early next week CL we've got this iron duck in CL you can see we're up in the in the duck beak if it moves much higher And we get down under that 10% Probability of getting back in the duck head we may close this one out early next week Yes, we've got this long put vertical prices moved with a strong market moved right outside the range Holding this for that short Delta exposure. I mentioned gold Natty gas big move down today I'm just big. I mean we're talking three to seven percent moves in that gas almost every day. It seems like So a decent move down in that gas We had reduced our exposure by buying back one of our other sets of short strangles And so if price does kind of move near one of our break-evens, we are not going to hesitate to add another piece especially with the implied volatility levels that we're continuing to see in Natty gas if we take a look at the corresponding ETF which is UNG, you know IV percentile 86 IV rank at 55 So nice and juicy options in there would like to get another piece to that on If if it presents itself Oops, let me get back to the platform Let's see what else we got bonds. I mentioned wheat. I mentioned apple Apple continues to be just a monster to the upside. We've got this short Delta piece on so prices moved out of our range We'll look to either roller close this potentially next week if it continues higher Otherwise, we're just gonna hold steady for now hoping it gets back into range at some point Adobe we've got this pre earnings long strangle. It's almost a straddle, but you can see It's just one strike apart Price is just kind of stayed in this little range. So we're down down a little bit So just waiting looking for price to make a decent move Outside and and so we to book a profit. So we'll see what happens adobe announces earnings on 1212 so we've got a few days into next week for that to happen again We just like the Costco one. We're gonna close this before the earnings announcement So we're looking for a for a quick move before that if not, we'll just close it out Other earnings before I move on here other earnings to look at for next week AVGO, which is Broadcom. I mentioned adobe Costco Autozone Lulu lemon or a coal so some decent earnings next week Several of those with iron duck earnings potential as well So we will be checking out those and look for posts about that in the community from both us as well as other members Amazon Amazon, oh Amazon. So we've got this iron duck in Amazon. It expires next week Friday and you can see prices right here in the duckhead. So if we can kind of if we stay right here We'll book a nice nice duckhead profit. Obviously, we've got a full week of trading before that happens But hopefully it stays in this range Booking I mentioned booking. Yeah Costco I mentioned DE John Deere, we've got this short call vertical here We're at a point where we we could even take this off or roll it I'm gonna continue to keep this for some of that short Delta exposure Kind of what I was talking about before we got this big push down We've kind of rallied up and hopefully we can get a little bit more of a rollover in John Deere So we'll see what happens there DIA we've also got a couple of short Delta positions a couple short call verticals with this strong move up Prices moved out of range. So we just need a little downside to get back in there same with IWM and Same with QQQ. So kind of singing the same dance Singing a dance singing the same song on that one So that's the that's the deal there Rh I mentioned that one Roku. I mentioned Shopify. I mentioned SMH We've got this short strangle prices hanging out up here in the upper end of the range I was hoping to get on another piece in SMH, but man this implied volatility contracted quickly and so we didn't we didn't get one on I was wait, you know, I wanted price to be kind of near the break even but also have that higher IV and Implied volatility just collapsed. So now it's down into the 10 range. So not looking to add to that. Just going to manage your current position SPX we have today expires one of our ducks So we're going to collect a beak profit of 115 You'll see that alert go out after the market closes And then we've also got this other one Which expires? next week or December 16th, I should say and You can see prices hanging out right here. So we've got about a let's line up our calendars here put it on 12 17 You know, so we've still got it over a 30% chance 32% chance that it could come back down into our duck head So I'm not looking to take that one off yet But the one does expire today for beak profit. So if we get some decent action next week We will well probably even if we don't we'll probably add another another SPX iron duck I like to have at least a couple of those on at any given point SPY we've got this short call vertical, which was originally part of an iron condor Price outside the range, which is similar story to our other short delta positions. I mentioned Ulta Be a book in the beak profit there And then lastly XLK another short delta position We need some downside to get back into range on that one or we'll be looking to either close or roll that So those are all the alerts. Those are all the positions look for those earnings plays next week Well, either it just posts in the community or actual official alerts and then The other thing I was go the other thing I was gonna mention is bonds. So let's go to ZB Where are you ZB? There you are so the other thing is with with bonds the The implied volatility is really high. So this is the one we just adjusted. So it's the 61 straddle With and price is kind of hanging out here near that lower end of the range So what we might look to do is add to this if we look at TLT. Let's go to the chart and look at the corresponding ETF You see implied volatility is nice and high IV percentile 73 IV ring 44 And so we may look to add another strangle in ZB. Just kind of centered around Centered around the current price here kind like that. No, that wasn't very good If this is the price It's gonna be more like this See if I can use my skills. There we go. So anyway, just kind of spreading out those break-evens Taking advantage of that high implied volatility. So that's the plan in bonds Hope everybody has a great weekend. If you have any questions, let us know