 Welcome to the weather forecast for the week beginning Wednesday, July 6th 2022. I'm chief meteorologist John insworth for Longmont public media I'm going without camera this time. I'm up at the red feather lakes library Our lunar phase is a full moon Wednesday, July 13th So rising about nine o'clock at night setting about 5 a.m The current face of the sun shows some big sunspots coming around the eastern side So we could see some geomagnetic activity about a week from now for spending about a week after that We can't drop conditions across Colorado Since we skipped last week. This is going back two weeks You can see going forward. There's some relief down in the four corners area and then going to the current map We have worsening conditions out here on the northeast plains and a Good amount of relief in the southwest corner of the states or still a little weirdly imbalanced, but the northern central mountains here around Red Feather Lake are drought free Going nationally going from two weeks ago to this week You can see it the monsoonal flow here across Arizona and the Mexico into Colorado has Lessened to drop conditions there and new draw conditions are showing up or beginning to show up in the southeastern part of the nation Rainfall of the last week a pretty good coverage almost everywhere except the northeast plains the light green and is about a half inch of precipitation the darker greens to yellows take you from one to two inches and That is going to continue Just taking a look at the smoke forecast from the HRR model for Friday morning There's some fires on California and Nevada where things are still very dry But no smoke is affecting Colorado at this time Looking again at the animation of severe weather Climatology starting at the last week of March. We are moving through April You can see it expanding up and including eastern Colorado the first week of June now Continues to move up the plains by the first week of July. We're sort of at our peak chances of severe weather again, this is usually hail and Straight line damaging winds going into the second week of July. It's just beginning to decrease a little bit the Expected chance of severe weather The actual forecasters severe weather Wednesday was for high winds The long I-25 just east of Fort Collins and out on the plains with a slight risk including hail in the Northeast part of the Plains for Thursday It's hail and high winds right down I-25 and out on the eastern plains Then that moves a little further east on Friday on Saturday We just have a chance of convection in the mountains and southwest part of the state Look at the surface analysis We do have a bit of a cool front draped down across northeast Colorado chance of precipitation for much of the state Going for Thursday. We have Little less chances on the western slopes the rest of Colorado could get some thunderstorm activity for Friday. It really does move out And then for a Saturday, there's chances again Coming into the eastern plains Of the next 10 days our normal high temperature goes from 89 to 90 degrees normal low temperature 58 to 59 90 is the highest normal High temperature It will remain 90 for about three weeks and then begin to drop again The normal low temperature will still increase to about 60 61 I believe over the next couple weeks and then it will plateau it well The beginning of summer is June 21st, but the peak heat is about a month later See the good chances of rain here at the beginning for the weekend Friday and Saturday and kind of Sunday We have a very dry spell and then next week the African thunderstorms return All this is because we are getting an early Take on monsoon moisture. Some of that comes from the Gulf of California Some feeds in from the Gulf of Mexico gets brought in around high pressure that sets up in the eastern part of the nation Or even further out around the Bermuda Island. So it's a Bermuda high If there's general flow up out of the south you can see the grays and White coloration even these pink colors or clouds and blues or thunderstorms There's a lot of moisture in place So this is all coming around the high that is currently centered in eastern Texas in this situation and moisture is feeding up for Wednesday also This is the GFS version of Atmospheric moisture. This is precipitable water. So how much can you squeeze out of the atmosphere at best with thunderstorm activity? And it's pretty high. The greens are above normal amounts of moisture. The brown is below normal amounts of moisture By Saturday the high moves right into what the eastern plains of Colorado Diverting the moisture off to our east. You can see where we have below normal amounts of precipitate Precipitable water. So yeah, we're gonna be very dry and very hot on Saturday We don't get a return of this flow until about Tuesday You can see very rich moisture is back in the state allowing afternoon storms to happen. So for the next 10 days the 500 millibar map here is the airflow and ridges and troughs That in this summer this doesn't matter as much you can see this giant ridge is just kind of drifting back and forth This is a little more important map in the winter when you're looking for cold fronts coming down and then warm fronts returning But this high just keeps kind of dancing around out here looking at the two meter Temperature anomaly. So reds are above normal blues are below normal. You can see we get really hot over the next few days in the weekend There's a little cold front activity coming down here in the northern plains By Monday that cool air actually does come down on the eastern side of the state So there we are below normal by Wednesday the heat baking California and Washington, Oregon out west of us This is the real Telling map. This is the precipitable water animation. Here comes the weekend with the dry air There's Saturday into Sunday still dry. Moisture tries to make a comeback, but it really isn't until Monday night And then much better on Tuesday Moisture is Returning so here's Wednesday Into Thursday, there's some good moisture out in the western states as well We do dry out late next week Only to go into next weekend with another big river of moisture across the state So we kind of go back and forth. There's our Wednesday storms clearing out here the lesser Storm coverage on Thursday. There's nothing on set Friday and Saturday Sunday just up in the mountains Every day the afternoon and pulse of thunderstorms. It was Monday with another really happening then Tuesday the storms are back Wednesday lots of storm action. You can see some severe weather return there And then for Thursday it dries out a little bit more into that weekend So the next five days we can see Basically the higher elevations out to the eastern plains get the largest amount of rain over the next 10 days the northeast Plains where that drought is worse than does seem to get a good amount of rain So we're gonna might see the state balance out a little bit better And just for fun the next 10 days of snow in the state. Yeah, there's nothing All right, so Wednesday into Thursday around the 80s Friday We jump to the 90s and for the weekend we should break a hundred hundred 102 area You could even see a hundred and five out around Lyman Places in a lower elevation like that and then next week we're back to more seasonable weather with the 80s as highs And I think about being in Colorado is even if it's hot in the day You're down in the 60s at night for some good relief We do have before we go a hurricane to take a look at we have hurricane Bonnie It got up to a category three of the last few days But it's hitting colder water as it moves away from the Baja Peninsula out Generally towards Hawaii and it'll be a tropical depression in just a few days For more frequent weather updates and local news check out longmont leader calm room field leader calm This has been chief meteorologist John insworth Keep looking up