 Okay, hello everyone. Welcome to today's webinar. About a minute with eight star things. Let's get through these risk warnings. So we're going to start off looking at equity markets, some of the most popular products that we offer. So the US 30, the UK 100, Germany 30 sort of covers that. US, European, UK angle on equities, what you'll find is they all look fairly similar. And that does make sense because the reasons for some of the more dramatic movements that we've seen in the last few weeks have pretty much all been of a sort of global nature, you know, namely a lot of the China-orientated stuff and the prospect of a rate hike in the US. And so we've known that the US are gearing towards a rate hike for a while, but now it's getting perilously close. You know, we're two weeks away essentially from a possible US rate hike. And when it's been summer trading, so liquidity is lower in the summer, generally causes sharper market movements, China devalued the currency and we've seen equity markets fall off a cliff. Now I want to pull up some of the charts here. It's entirely possible that we formed a base for now in equities, in some of these industries. I'll start with, since we've mentioned the US and the prospect of a rate hike there, I'm going to start with the US, pull out to a weekly chart. This is the US 30, the Dow, really. And you know, you're pretty clear to see why we spiked quite massively off this level, corresponded with the low here. Listen, I mean, lows don't always work. We went straight through this low, but this one did correspond to the 200-week moving average and we pulled off pretty massively. Now we closed down the following week after that big recovery, and that's not a good sign. And to me, you may be wondering what these X's are on the chart. I've drawn them in just to remind myself what the trend is here. So these larger X's denoting the kind of weekly trend. What I'm looking at is, you know, that to me is more of a significant peak, but really any candle that has a couple of closes down on either side, I'm calling a peak. And so you can see the last two major weekly peaks that we formed, none of these down here really classify because they haven't had two candles closed on either side on the weekly chart. So these two, the last two, in and around the top were lower. And then this is the last weekly close that we had that you could really kind of call a low because it had two higher closes either side. And this one will be at the end of this week if we don't drop below there. At the moment, I'm just calling it a little X, which is a daily. We're above the 200-week moving average. You know, that did correspond with the low over here to help it be support. But it's not something I follow that much. And I don't think this is something that the market follows as much as a major indicator. So to me, just because we're above the 200-week moving average, yes, it's supportive, but to me, it's not the be all and end all as to what the direction of the trend is. And like I said, it was still generally speaking thought of as being in a bull market for equities. But to me, the trend is down right now on a weekly and a daily basis. And so I'm not looking to get long just yet in the market. That's just how I view things. I realize that we could have based, but I want to see some reversal of the shorter timeframe trends, namely the daily trend, to feel confident enough to get in again here. Now that's starting to happen. Here's these two Xs denoting the kind of last two major daily. Again, I haven't put one here just because we haven't closed today yet. So there's only one lower close either side of this peak. We've got the two higher lows here. So we've got lower highs but a higher low. So it kind of puts the trend a bit uncertain at the moment. Really, what you'll see is that there's a 16,000 here. The pattern looks very similar in the UK 100. We'll look up in a minute with a 6,000. Here in the Dow, it's the 16,000 level. And that's basically where we put this second high low in. If we break below that, this is canceled. The downtrend to me is resuming, and we're at least getting a test down towards the lows in that sort of 1,500 fatinity. But should we push against not so much this high, but up against here, obviously enough. That puts us into not only a higher low, but a higher high too. So below the 200-day moving average, so we've still got to be a little bit careful at targeting on new all-time highs. We're probably not going to be that optimistic. But the daily trend will be higher, and we can feel a bit more confident about going along. Even though the weekly trend is, in fact, would still be lower at that point. Now, it's Labor Day in the U.S. today, so we're not going to get too much movement, I suspect, in the U.S. 30. And to be honest with you, we didn't get that much, even though it maybe felt a bit tumultuous last week. U.S. 30, not as crazy last week as it has been. The U.S. probably was the most volatile of all of them. If we look at the Germany 30, in our proxy for the DAX, we zoom out to the weekly chart here, basically an inside week where the higher the week, just about thereabouts, didn't take out the higher the previous week, and nowhere near took out the lower the previous week. So one week is inside the other. So pretty directionless. But you can see similar general idea here, where the last two major weekly peaks were down, in the midst of forming a lower low on the weekly chart, so the trend is down. But like that 200-week moving average in the U.S. 30, we do have quite a decent rising trend line here, which I'm sure a lot of you have on your charts, and I certainly won't be the only one to have on this chart, as far as other analysts and traders out there. This will be well seen. Now, I certainly got two touches, but this last one did bounce nicely off there, and it did correspond to that previous low. So that's where we got the bounce. It wasn't quite as dramatic as the U.S. bounce. And equally, this little move here wasn't quite as forthright to the downside, just because we didn't bounce as much in the first place, in terms of the week before last and then the resulting down move last week. You can see on the RSI chart, this has been our support for quite a long time. The previous trend line bounce is also where we're bouncing at the moment. So if you're not familiar, worth a little bit of research on an inside day candle pattern or an inside week, also known as Harami, if you're looking at just the bottoms, as far as a Japanese candlestick pattern, but you can trade it as a breakout. So if we break above the highs of the first week, it's a possibility for going long according to this strategy. If we break below either conservatively below the lows of the first week or more aggressively below the low of the second week, that's a breakout lower in a possible short position. Generally not best to trade it by itself, but in combination with some other technical indicators to confirm it's a known pattern. So something to look out for on the longer term frame. Again, you'll notice a pretty similar pattern. We've just formed this higher low. So we're kind of in the midst of a correction of the sharp downtrend that we got after the China devaluation, the currency devaluation, and we're not quite sure whether we're able to take it higher yet. We pulled back off that previous high. We've been down since then, and so then the real trigger will be in the Germany 30, it's the 10,000 level really that we're watching out for. We did get a close below there, but we popped back up again last week. So we'll have to be mindful of that possibility, but really we want some substantial close below 10,000 to tell us we can go back to the lows and potentially lower. Now as far as big events this week, it's all about trade balances tomorrow. So if you remember, it was the China trade balance data where there was a massive drop in exports that actually triggered them to devalue the currency in the first place, so that will be probably one of the most interesting data to watch tomorrow, especially will be that China trade data which obviously was released early, but we do have the same thing for Germany and France as well. It's probably a better week for UK data in general, so that being said, let's pull up the UK 100. Here it's a daily chart, we'll get to that in a second. UK, if anything, is looking at one of the weaker charts that we have. To me, this was the clear area of support where we'd failed to get through on multiple occasions, that's 6,000 level, got up through, found support multiple times. Here we got below it, we pushed up and kind of closed in and around it, but the fact we're going this far below, to me, is a bit of a sign of weakness, and we have closed below this fairly obvious trend line and we're well below the 200 week moving average as well. Dropping down to that familiar looking daily chart, higher low again, like the other indices, and here the 6,000 level is the one that we need to break down to show us that this is just a little correction of what's going to be a new downtrend. We don't know if it will take up the low yet, the general source of the trend where we're below the averages, below the broken trend line, et cetera, would suggest that we will. But as I mentioned, we've got UK industrial production tomorrow, also the UK manufacturing production that comes along with that tomorrow, as long as the UK trade balance tomorrow, but the biggest one will be Thursday when we have the right decision from the Bank of England. Now, these have got more interesting recently because they post the minutes at exactly the same time as they do the decision. So we immediately know how many members voted for keeping things on hold or could go any voted for a rate hike. Last time it was just one, one member, McCafferty, who voted for a rate hike, and so we'll have to see if anyone's joined him. But given the fact that oil prices have fallen off a cliff, inflation has been lowered and inflation forecasts and expectations are down. Probably no one's going to join him. That fringes maybe one person, but it's pretty unlikely there'll be a rate hike. So holding off on a rate hike on the face of it, there's two ways of looking at it. It's not a good sign for the UK economy necessarily, but it is good from the prospect that companies still get to borrow at low rates and the housing market still gets some support from low mortgage rates which does feed through into consumer pockets at a time when wages do seem to be rising. So there's low inflation and that's the reason they're not hiking interest rates, but that low inflation is largely because of oil prices and so the economy still seems to be improving although there's been a bit of a slowdown in some economic data recently which explains why the pound has been so weak and we'll have a look at the pound in a minute. Fundamentally, the UK economy looks good, but just the FTSE 100, you've got to look elsewhere in terms of catalysts because it's not so much about the UK economy. It's a lot about the nature of commodities and the commodity stocks that we have on here and some of them will beat in up sectors like banks which we've just heard today, may face billions more in fines and the oil companies which again are exposed to low oil prices and supermarkets where we have news today, Tesco has sold, had to sell off a profitable business just to focus on a home where the losing market shares. So some of these big weighted companies in the FTSE 100 not doing so well, hence the index is not doing so well, even though the economy in general is doing alright. So it's difficult one to trade the FTSE at the moment. Difficult one to trade fundamentally. Better to look at just exactly what the companies on the FTSE 100 are doing which don't necessarily ebb and flow according to the UK economy. We do, I believe, did I miss out? CPI inflation nature is next week for the UK but CPI data for Germany is on Friday. So since we did touch briefly on the pound there, let's switch over to currencies. Now we're looking a lot better in the pound today and you can see this, I'm not just drawing this on today, this has been on my chart for a good while now and it's just been on my chart. We have the big spike reversal there, we've found support there in and around that vicinity and now we're bouncing pretty nicely off there and if today stays as it is, just about edging out a bullish engulfing pattern which is a bullish reversal off the bottom of the range. So that would be a confluence of coming out of oversold on the RSI, a bullish candlestick pattern off a former support level which would kind of keep us in track with this sort of sideways range that we find ourselves in. Got to be careful, we're below the 200-day moving average but that just has less significance when we're not in a trending environment. We're really in the range right now so that's what takes precedent. We're in an environment where just overbought is an opportunity for selling and oversold is an opportunity for buying rather than buying at overbought levels as you might do in a trend. But we did worth mentioning that we had, I think, nine days in a row of the pound closing lower which is something that hasn't happened in quite a few years and so, yeah, sentiment pretty negative on the pound but concurrently also sentiment pretty bullish on the dollar because we're still eyeing up that September rate hike from the Fed but as we just discussed, less likely from the Bank of England. Now, obviously, should the Bank of England catch us out on Thursday, we could see a real extension off the bottom of that range for cable here. So a possible fundamental driver for higher prices and for the moment I suggest that this bullish pattern that we're seeing today is just at the range support you know, it's people who have been short for nine days thinking, well, we've had a pretty good run nine days and we've also got this fundamental risk of the Bank of England who probably aren't going to say too much different but could insert a reason to take money off the table on any short cable positions for the time being and if we judge on this candlestick pattern potentially good long position, obviously, yeah, hard to see what the Bank of England could really say that's too supportive of the pound, given the inflation outlook. Let's have a look at the euro. I think that was just me tracking it pretty short term for the non-farm payrolls which we had last week which I haven't mentioned yet. If you haven't read around, we've got the general just on that number. The headline number came in below expectations which typically in itself is dollar negative and we originally saw immediately after the release we saw a move down in the dollar but that was quickly reversed and the dollar finished, well, after that initial surge closed strongly, taped it back a little bit after that but the reason for that reversal was we did see quite a, you know, quite a surprising lift in wages and the unemployment rate dropped down to 5.1% which is close to what the Federal Reserve calls full employment. So in terms of their labor market mandate which, you know, they have the two mandates, one for inflation, one for unemployment. As far as the unemployment one, they're pretty much there. So it's just the inflation that's a worry at the moment. You know, if all prices stay low for longer it's just going to make it less likely that they're going to reach their 2% inflation target anytime soon. So the question is, do they look through all prices in a prolonged period of low inflation and high interest rates anyway? That's the big question really. Now, worth looking at the weekly chart for the euro, look at that. I'm sure you've seen that but, you know, just in context to hear those previous weekly highs we broke out and just cataclysmically closed lower. We haven't really built on it but that was just such a huge reversal. There's only so much downside momentum you couldn't have at one time. So going from looking pretty positive with a kind of rising trend line and a break at a high is to make a former higher high, it's a bit more negative in the euro now and I could maybe see us breaking this rising trend line and maybe even the support just off that big bearish candlestick pattern which anyone who cares to look at these longer time frames won't want to be trading against that. Conversely, of course, you've got to always admit when you're wrong and if we do trade through that, that would be a really bullish signal. So no more rule of trading. Prepare to be wrong and when you are wrong, reverse the position because that will normally be the right one. So short a term here in the euro, again, looking pretty weak because we weren't even able to bounce off these two peaks which would be a logical place. We dropped through it, got a little tepid bounce, now we're down below it again but even if we get a bounce towards the highs again here I wouldn't see us getting through. I suspect we're dropping down to this trend line again which a lot of people should have on their charts but fourth time test, a fifth time test even. It will correspond probably with that low by the time we get there over here. So confidence and support could see a little bounce but my default assumption would be that we're breaking it. Not to mention that we're back below the 200 day moving average here which you can see we kind of moved up, bounced off and lower. Over to Dolly Yen. So this has been a pretty volatile chart namely because the Yens considered a bit of safe haven and stocks are considered risky. So generally stocks and the Yen move in opposite directions, stocks and Dolly Yen move in the same direction. So Yen actually, if you are using that correlation with the Yen in stocks, the Yens move down a lot more than, sorry Dolly Yen has moved down a lot more than the stock market has so could actually imply that we've got a bit more downside to go in stocks. Below the 200 day moving average and I haven't drawn the X's on but similar pattern isn't it? We're clearly making lower lows, made lower highs up here with pretty much a double top pattern which this objective was in and around this 116 area I believe might have been 115. But we've broken this rising trend line to come off, broken down through there, come back, failed to get above the 200 day and then we're heading down again. So to me looking pretty bearish and did manage to form a higher low there but we've already rolled over in the Dolly Yen whereas in the equities we're kind of hovering in this kind of vicinity if you can picture the same thing, presuming a bit. We haven't taken out this low yet in equities in Dolly Yen we have. So lower low on the daily chart as well. Can't use that as a high but that can really lower highs there. Any questions at all on the sort of things I'm talking about here obviously if I'm saying anything too quick I'm not explaining myself properly. You know, happy to explain again. Equally any other markets you want me to cover. Now be the time because we've got about five minutes left of this other webinar today. Let's for the time being jump over to commodities. Let's have a look at gold. Okay, always worth looking at a longer time frame first. So this is what keeps me pretty negative on gold and the long term perspective. You know I'm still a seller on bounces in gold because of this declining trend line. You know this is a longer term perspective but you just got to look at where we are. At the moment we've got this. Fairly nicely defined down the sloping trend line as well. So even though it's tempting for us to think maybe there's a base being formed here after this nice little couple of week rally in gold. Really we're still in the kind of concept we're still in the vicinity of just selling on bounces opportunities. So we're already starting to see this roll off. Now if we can't take out the lows we've got to change our perspective a little bit but you can see that this was the kind of long term base in gold that we've slipped below, comeback retested thereabouts. Now we could get up there and push a little bit higher into that. Nothing's perfect but you can see generally what's happening here. My default assumption is that we do take out the lows and that's just following the trend. You know just keep assuming the trend will keep going until it's finally proved itself broken. So we've had a little dip here. So we had a, you know it's not, okay let's drop down to the daily chart so you can see it's a bit better. We've had higher highs put in. Now unfortunately we've had a lower low put in, lower high. We're right in the vicinity of putting in a, you know we're basically, if I just draw a line in, you know there's no surprise that we closed in there on Friday and we're hovering just above this line because from going from where that X here to trending higher on the daily time frame we've banged into that weekly declining trend line and now we've dropped off, we've failed to take out the highs again by any stretch and now we're pushing into the sport. So if we drop below here, to me the longer term downtrend is resuming and we're heading down to the lows potentially lower and RSI looking a bit like a head and shoulders down here as well which you do get right on the 50 line as well. So RSI we've already taken out the 50 line. So that's assigned the price maybe about to do the same. Now we've done the time. Let's have a look at silver. Was looking distinctly better because we hadn't taken out the lows of the year. Was that November? Okay it was November. So we did make new lows of the year but then we still held on to that November low until that week which was, looks like the last week in August and what was looking promising, same as in gold where we had a little bounce, thought maybe we'd put a base in and then just crashed and rolled over. Silver's trading a bit more like copper at the moment than it is gold. Gold trades quite well as a safe haven, silver not so much and so a very indecisive inside week last week and again sort of inside week trade. If we take out the low here and close below it suggesting that we'll probably drop in well below 14. Bit choppy on the daily chart. Get pretty hard to trade at the moment. You know look out for obvious reversal points in the past because they can work. You know vaguely speaking we put in a double top, dropped down to new lows. We were kind of bounced. That looks to me, I haven't actually done this yet, it looks about 50%. We can see here that these two candles hit the 50 and then this one almost pushed up to the, you know the correspondence of those two highs and the 61.8 is just a bit above. Start to roll over again until the, we're probably not going to seriously head to new low lows until the Fed actually hike rates. I think if they don't hike rates and what is it, two in a week and two weeks time, then we may have put actually a base until the goal for a while. If they do, you know that's I think the trigger for us dropping well down. Smooth over to oil in the last few minutes we have here. Brent first. So yeah it was pretty fascinating. We had that massive rally where we came off the lows here. So we hit new six mafia lows and then we just rebounded 10% that was in one day and then the next day I think it was 8%, the next day it was sort of 5% or something and then we dropped off about 8% the next day. So some wild moves going on, some big profitable trades possible here if you're on the right side of it. But now it's the question mark as to whether this, whether this correction was just a big short covering rally and we're dropping straight down again. I tend to think we may try and push into the lows of this range and then I think we might hold up. You know that kind of the intensity of that rally to me suggests people aren't going to try and push through the lows just yet. We might have a bit higher to go. But that being said, the trend is down if you're looking at the 200 day moving average. But we have taken out, if I'm drawing Xs that would be an X there and I'd be higher Xs up here and that would be an X down there, an X down there. So like daily chart has sort of turned into a little uptrend but it's just getting threatened with being reversed at the moment but not quite there. So holding above this low looks good that this rally could extend even if we drop down so that I think the bottom of this range which works before might still be good for a low value reversal to push higher again. Let's see how WTI compares with that. Difficult to judge or fundamentally at the moment. We all know the situation. We know that Mark has massively over supplied. The only thing we can really look at is US inventories data. That's out on Wednesday as it is every week. And just be aware of when there's OPEC release their monthly report and be aware of any comments from OPEC ministers there's still an outside chance of an emergency OPEC meeting. We've not heard much about that in the last week or so. So it's sort of pushed for by Venezuela I believe but not to really been much response from the likes of Saudi Arabia on it. Iran would also want it but I haven't heard of it actually happening yet. So this spike was largely short covering on the prospect of that meeting possibly happening. I think we might get another little spike if it actually gets announced or maybe just anyway. WTI has not come off as much as Brent. Brent's actually closer down here into the lows from Wednesday but we are getting a little bit of RSI bearish divergence. Not so much bearish divergence but it's sort of like a lower peak because the market also formed a lower peak here but just suggested if we take up that little low at 50 then we haven't managed to push beyond 60. We drop below 50 in the RSI. The momentum is just turned bearish again. Okay. That's about it for this week. A couple of minutes over but we did start a couple of minutes late so I hope that was useful. Good luck with trading this week. I'll catch you at the same time next week. Thanks for listening.