 cutting the YouTube I can see the link today so everything should be good for posterity right I'm gonna make sure I'm speaking above the microphone and not into it so we don't get those pops nine seconds and not into it so we don't get those pops good morning everybody and welcome to another hour on a Friday morning and the markets just giving us a bit of volatility as we speak before we do the disclaimers or as we do them I'll just flick over so you can see what I mean so yeah they're both just shot upwards anyway I must do the disclaimers so let's go and do those all book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations trading futures equities and digital currencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results okay let us just um quickly have a look at this wasn't expecting as a violent a little upthrust there we had some sell icebergs which you can see in pink in NQ they've been smashed through you've got some resting liquidity up at that round number of 14 950 after such a violent little move let's see if it can get at least to this wall of liquidity up there yeah so we'll just watch that for a second by the way I have gone back to the side-by-side I like to switch things up you probably know that already but one thing that I do use in my own trading and this applies equally to stuff that I have outside of book map as to stuff inside book map is I do like it to see market side-by-side especially since I'm trading both of these markets and you're aware that I look at quite a few other markets because I believe more in relationships confluence correlations than I do in any magical indicators which I do not and I have coded a few so I know of the mathematics involved right okay so we had a little pump up now it's coming back let's go to our slides so we can talk about we have going so it's still the the new format we're not necessarily doing it in this order I think today we are more likely to do the context before we do anything else and then we might go back into a couple of things that we saw in ETH because it was quite interesting especially the way those icebergs set up before that plunge upwards okay there is some news that is probably the reason for that volatility but they probably knew that beforehand anyway the news that I can read out is that the US and China are to start working groups on economic and financial issues so that came out at a belatedly but the actual news was at eight o'clock exactly and we saw that coincided with the surge upwards okay anyway let's go on to our context right we've got nothing major in the 8 a.m. to 9 a.m. on the economic calendar so we don't we should not need to wonder too much about it's another surging volatility unless there's another unexpected piece of news we do have one fed member FMC member Cook speaking at 10 to 9 so that's towards the end of our hour right let's have a look at some of the context okay instead of doing a daily heat map I saw something posted in another of the book map discord channel so I thought I'd put this in here as well this is a weekly snapshot of sorry I'm just looking at the comments just making sure I am covering comments at the same time okay this is a weekly snapshot of what has happened in the S&P 500 this week right and remember the context for the multi-month uptrend rally has been the leading or the narrow the narrow grouping lead of five big texts you know Amazon Nvidia Google Microsoft Apple okay and this week we had the Apple iPhone 15 release so maybe that's the reason why that is not as down as the others but the others have had fairly massive wipes you know Nvidia which was the leader earlier in this trend that is down nearly 11% as is Amazon so that's that's interesting there is a liquidation of the market okay back to this chart I've left the multi-month uptrends on there just so you can see so we have broken through this double bottom zone I was wondering if we get any kind of spring maybe we'll get that today but yeah that was a key zone and we've got the longer term uptrend still in place but this particular multi-month uptrend the sharper one steeper one has been broken quite clearly and yeah NQ is still going up we can flick backwards again if you anybody would like so you can see that surge upwards towards that liquidity there so if you had managed to get in and ride a trail on that iceberg you would be sitting quite pretty in fact you could have got back in on the on the retest but we can go that go through that in a little while okay let's get back to the slideshow okay next NQ a daily again same kind of interesting zone but more importantly it's very close now to the the second uptrend line this is the shallower multi-month uptrend line so it is in danger of completely breaking the uptrend I discount anything I particularly read on Twitter about how low it can go or any videos that people suddenly post you know everything I know nothing I do not know the future I can only trade on probabilities based on what I see and we are more interested in alpha eyes in edge over the longer term than at forecasting the future here okay I thought I'd just throw in the 15 minute the reason I have this here is because after a big day's range it's interesting to see where we are in relation to yesterday's so you've got yesterday's low there which we tagged and bounced off this is for ES and the halfway point being yesterday's mid are we anywhere near that because after a big big range they quite often come back and tag that it's not a probability I'm not going to quote any market statistics on that one I'm just saying that after a very very extended range day as in ranges in trend down day or trend up day they often have this habit of getting back to yesterday's mid and finally NQ so a little bit of a stronger bounce we're sort of halfway between yesterday's mid and yesterday's low okay alright let's go back okay and yeah although I have got ES and NQ over here I am not ignoring what we normally look out over here on the right being the three minutes I do have them elsewhere on my screens I can show you can drag them down what I thought I would do is quickly drag this down and just to give you an idea of of of patience I suppose we can see in book map that the cell icebergs and NQ were placed on the let me draw this without my pen I'll take that in a second the cell icebergs were placed around about there on this stroke down right there was tremendous opportunity to get in for a long to to retag those cell icebergs and you had a big spring which would be a quite a hard one to take of the NQ low but this little retest here this one just let me just draw that on a three minute chart that is the beauty in fact the one previously so you had two good opportunities to get in and showing patience to tag that and you know depending on the way you trade you might have been done for today it's just interesting the way that they set that up for people so sometimes they do provide really good opportunities in this session up to the US open let me just get that one out of the way and let us have a look in NQ and they've put another cell iceberg here at the top so again I'd say the probability is looking at the number of 15 sorry for moving my cursor around so much they've got 15 there they've got up to up for more you've got liquidity up above that they're screaming out the idea is patience wait for structural setups and here you know you might well get a break of this low point here and that might get us a trigger to go along again but let's just go back in time to have a quick look at this so as we're going to be careful dragging because if I zoom out too much then we may end up a long way from where we want to be okay so you have this great big drive up and well it's not great big but a good drive up and then they place two cell icebergs here and that bounds the market by that I mean that there's a swing high which almost tags it and then they go lower all right what I'm saying for those is that where you have a significant size on that iceberg in NQ I tend to ignore the tiddly ones in NQ but I pay attention to the small ones in the ES that are above the market I either sell icebergs but not necessarily the buy icebergs that constitutes one piece of market generated information for you that is a target or an initial target remember the idea or the idea that I'm suggesting is that you scale so that would be an initial target and I might not even be your first scale depending on how good your entry was into this trade so that you have this target time to dig out the pen did you get out so which color should we go for let's go for blue right see if the tablet is working behaving today nope cannot see it let's ignore the tablet then it's not being my friend today so a bit of a wobbly square so you have some swing lows here now we can start zooming out and looking at opportunities to get in so the idea here is you're looking to take out that swing high get any stops of anybody that is here thrust up into that sell iceberg and then see what happens so in other words you made more than your one R by the time you have broken through or at least tagged at those two icebergs and the idea again is to show plenty of patience because NQ in ETH will have multiple opportunities and the idea as well if that you are scaling and you are getting in I have to get rid of those because they know in the way if you're scaling in it does not matter if it does not get to the targets the first time so I'm saying here if we draw a line across we mark the swing low and we have a look at this trade here which was a 48 that is a that's a lovely trigger type trade what do I mean by this being a trigger I mean it's a structural spring so it's a breakout failure below the last swing or below a significant swing low on this time frame doesn't matter if it's not a significant swing on the 15 minute or the early on this chart it's a significant swing takes it out fails and you've got a lot of volume being 50 ish on NQ which at this time of the day what quarters at 8 in the morning was significant and and you've got you've got the main target which I described up there and you have a tight stop so so whatever you get in whether it's 5 to 10 points whatever you manage to get in there's a good chance you've got at least one hour by around about here and that could have been to our so the fact that this doesn't actually get you straight there does not matter what I talk about a lot is repetitions or opportunities actually it does so I take that back with what it did actually come back down one more time so I'm suggesting that you might have your one hour around about here to our could have been this little stop run up there or one to half hour depends where you put your scales I think on my current might my scales are partly dependent on statistics on how I've been performing and how rotations have been at that time of the day but my current scales are in the order of 1 1.5 2 3 and 4 and certainly with the 3r and the 4r if the trade is working I have absolutely no hesitation in just moving those far far away and doing a manual trail behind price again I cannot predict the future and if the trade suddenly starts working out who am I to complain if it goes in my favor alright just checking to make sure we have no comments and also to make sure we've got an audience and he's on and beyond YouTube if you've got any issues with reading any charts or any of my microphone issues please pop a comment into the chat box in YouTube and I will see it okay so I'm just saying that you had a spring the trigger was sizable volume at a spring location and it smashed straight through that somebody knew about that economic release or the economic news at 8 a.m. it was just too convenient but ours is not to wonder if they did actually know ours is to trade what they gave us and they gave us a good opportunity to go long and it's still driving long now as you can see it's taken out that resting liquidity at 14 950 and it's still pushing up so if we're talking about microstructure here and you've got a swing high you've got draw again bit annoyed that the tablet is not working at the moment but you've got like a micro balance area they break out again from that and now they're exploring higher so we zoom right in we will talk about the ES as well in a minute I've had some requests as well to talk about NQ because I keep mentioning that you do get more opportunities and buy more opportunities I'm talking about good opportunities to get several scales on a trade and remember even if your win rate is only around 50% you know even slightly less or slightly more if you get a few of these winners that achieve much higher scales and we're talking about two three four five five are you know that is wonderful you know you just go and do the maths go and write it out go and do it in Excel and see what happens if you have a 50% win rate and your average win is 1.5 R 1.6 R and your average loss is 1 R and take commission into account there and you can see the maths for yourself and again this is a mathematical game the emotions are just to throw you off the maths and the fact that it's about probability it's not about winning it's not about losing it is about the statistical probability of you winning and having a positive expectancy of your wins versus your losses i.e. overall over a series of trades okay so you've broken out of this little bounce area and now let me just get rid of that so what I'm saying is that you've got some eyes so you've got them pushing but if we really really zoom in on the micro basis I've only got half the screen here because I've got ES as well you can see that it is exploring up every time we on this tiny time frame that can zoom up again you tag they cannot get any lowest they form a low they can't get back down to it they're exploring up that is micro trend motion it can turn into a major trend but that was micro trend motion up until there and then yeah then we stopped now they're saying how far low they can get but bearing in mind you've still got this liquidity above and again bearing in mind that we cannot predict what is going to happen okay I've got it I'm just saying sorry I thought there was a comment but it's a comment on another bookmap channel so that is neither here nor there okay I'm trying to find my own channel again just so I do not miss any other comments come on channel find you Lisa yep there we go okay right okay I was also going to start talking about ideas and some of the things that you see in a slightly different type of market and this week has been a slightly different type market so you know I went pull up that slide again of the heat map of the S&P 500 over this week but you know if you remember that one that we just looked at a few minutes ago we've had a fairly major down move and again if you look at the the daily you can see that too there so what kind of action can you expect in ETH or what kind of action is there typically or may there be typically in such a scenario because if we let me just I might just drag a chart over again okay which we do it with we'll do it with NQ here this is a 15 minute chart and if I was I mean you can see the large spike bars that's always around the 930 open so that's the RTH so I don't even need to draw them on it's clearly at the beginning of that but you can see on that day which assuming as yesterday the font is tiny on this particular monitor but that you can see that down move there in the European session that was a big big move down right that was a large part of the overall move down so you can if you know if you measured it and you know we took a straight line here and we went all the way down and said what do we achieve in the European session we achieved about one half of that overall move that is a lot of points you know regardless of whether you are looking at the NQ or the the ES you had the opportunity on such a big trend down day you know to to get I mean if you're into points again I'm not into points I mean to our multiples but if you were into points you had an opportunity to get as many points in the NQ session in one trade or in a couple of trades as you would do in the RTH session okay so you've got a big move down in Europe what telltale signs were there and I haven't got my arrow okay so I'm just moving that out of the way again okay and I've just got to get rid of all the markers on my screen okay that's better okay what telltale markers and let me see if we can just get a whiteboard going up here and some text maybe yep let's do some text okay okay so major economic most certainly not priced into the current indices market price or stock price whatever you want to call it right and that happened on the Wednesday afternoon with the FOMC statement not the interest rate rise itself but what they actually said at the same time or just afterwards so what can often happen with these reversals or these longer term type reversals is that as you've seen over the last couple of years it can keep going up and up and up and up and people are convinced it's going to go forever and then suddenly it will just drop and it will drop hard the market's still going up right what do we see okay right I haven't got a replay session in book map that I can show you right this second on on the screen let me just get rid of that for a second I'll keep that there but I'll move it notice it's not ready in the waste we'll just leave that there for a second so we can absorb what it is that I claim to have said okay what clues do we get okay one of those clues is by looking at the size of individual trades that occurred right and those trades we go back to this okay what do I mean by that statement there they have multiple avenues to trade in okay we're talking about the big boys here we're talking about the people that deal in millions and millions and millions of dollars right they operate yes they do operate in futures yes they do operate in ETFs yes they do operate in various options plays right and they do operate in all sorts of different markets which are interlinked okay but if they have decided for whatever reason you know maybe this statement has not been priced in and that price is too high and they need to explore a lot lot lower what they will do is that they need to get rid of some inventory so they need to offload inventory and we're talking about people people who's a daisy sorry right so we're talking about people that deal much bigger size and retail they are likely to use futures as one avenue okay that's about it we can go back to the market now so I think I'll put it into enough sentences there right in other words they are going to trade much larger than you normally see and some of those trades will be included in the futures market been that okay so we can at least see the market we have to re-center the ESO it doesn't go off the screen so what I'm saying is that you're going to see them at structural locations and certain times of the day those times of the day are likely to be if they're not necessary at structural points at the beginning of sessions so if you go back into your charts and maybe into your bookmap replays for ETH if those if there's any of you here that do actually keep them and you look on a volume bubble basis not on a Delta basis because you won't see it on the Delta basis necessarily if you look on a volume dot basis and you go back to the start of yesterday's where are we sorry Wednesday that's Thursday morning your time so yeah Thursday morning my time which would be Wednesday evening after the FMC US time so it'll be 1800 hours Eastern time on the Wednesday the 20th of September and you go back and you look at the volume of trades in NQ and the volume of trades in ES and also you look at in the in the ES for example at a massive absorption levels at those key times I'm talking about at all before the Japanese open at all before the Chinese open at all before the German open and at all before the London open you have a look at the size of those trades you may see something right and this is why am I even bothering with this I'm bothering with it because what you want to know or what you want is market generated information at all times you know that's that's the name of the game we're playing we're not playing forecasting we're not playing magic indicators we're looking for market generated information that may be of practical value that we can act upon so if you see some huge trades and I'm giving you a hint here if you go back into NQ for example yesterday in the first sorry on the Wednesday evening in the first two or three hours you'll see those huge trades and they position themselves right and then you look at the end of that ETH session or the end of the RTH session next day in other words nearly 24 hours later and you look at the position that the market has gone from and to and you know we can do we can dig out that daily chart slide again just a second let's go back in time and dig that one out yeah the NQ daily so we're talking about this bar here that great big bar there right so I'm saying that in the ETH session you'll find that they were key monster trades up here and also at some of the other opens and almost certainly the case also for ES when you see them and yet you see the market plunge you might still have that instinct in you that says oh I must pay this this has gone too far this has gone too far this has gone too far but what I'm saying is that you need to take those into context and put some of these pieces of the jigs all together to see whether this is a slightly different day now if you keep records of what happens to be a large individual trade in ETH on a normal type session and then you see something completely out of the ordinary that does give you a clue I'm not necessarily saying you can make any money out of it but it gives you a clue and at the very least it may stop you from trying to fade and holding with a very very wide stop because that is the kind of day that you know if you had taken a long and there were some nice structural technical longs in NQ in Asia you taken along there for example there you know towards the top of the daily candle you know you could have been in a lot of strife and your broker would have closed out your account if you haven't got a stop in place so yeah that's all I'm saying I'm also saying that another type of redistribution I think is pretty the best way of course talking about it in this situation we can always draw that I'll draw it on the chart I have to draw it with a mouse because my tablet is not working so redistribution is in the market and the market can often do that and what you are interested in there and you will find a few examples of this on the Wednesday overnight into Thursday morning ETH session is the size of the trades in ETH in these redistribution sessions you should have a few to look at because the market went down so long so far so there are probably a few little accumulation distribution I don't remember what word people use I had to call it a bouncing phase before the continuation or a pause before the continuation and the idea there is if you see some out of the ordinary really unusual trades you've got to stop for a second and think should I really be going long today if they are putting that size on and in the context of the news that we had at the FOMC okay that was just a little quick chat about what can happen after a large economic release on some types of trend days remember not all trend days are going to give you the information you know not all trend days are going to be preceded by a major economic release after a massive multi-month uptrend you know that is kind of an unusual scenario quite often you'll just get quite large trend days in EAS and NQ and they may come out of the blue or they may be driven by information such as economic releases that happened in Japan or China or Germany or the UK you know remember that when we were looking at on Wednesday's webinar which unfortunately wasn't recorded on YouTube and we were talking about the pound and the UK CPI was lower than expected in the pound shot I think it was I can't remember whether the pound shot up or shot down but it was it was such a huge spark of news that caused quite a run in the indices that was the DAX the FTSE and the US indices at that time of the day in the European session when we were looking at that live at the London Open or just before the London Open okay I'm just going to stop and we can have a look at some of the market action live for a second and I know I haven't reached spoken about EAS so maybe this is a good opportunity to do what we often do at this time of the day which is to zoom out and look at the liquidity and where it is and how long it's been there I think I only rebooted this I think I've got the whole of the Asian session as well I think I do no I don't anyway that does not matter we can see that the liquidity here the bandit 4265 is it really 4265 yes it is keep thinking wow it's down at 4265 and the bandit forward oh sorry ah thank you sorry thank you Tom I had flicked across and I hadn't actually flicked to the display capture sorry what I've done on this is I've simply zoomed out vertically so that we can see when the these resting liquidities came in I'm just saying that the 4265 one which is the nearest price and therefore the most interesting and also not at a round number has been in place since the beginning of the Asian session so even if we're driving up now what are we driving into we are driving into a round number sorry that's the 4400 not the 4300 the fonts are small so I apologize but we're going into a wall of liquidity which may certainly act as a barrier whether that's temporary or permanent for this session I do not know and I cannot forecast but it's interesting that we're going into such a thick barrier and it's easier to see the barrier when we do zoom out vertically but you also have an interesting amount of liquidity which has been there for quite a long time you can see exactly when they added this 200 and they added that at 640 a.m. and at the same time they added 400 above again you know these may just be markers just placed for for the sake of it and they may know how it may have no value in terms of an interaction with price but again I see it as market generator information even if it's an advert that they just flagging something for us we may not understand what it is they're flagging it or why it is that they are flagging it but they are flagging it this is more interesting to me because this is resting liquidity at 4365 which has not been touched for the entire ETH session so you know one scenario is if we do hold this area here or we tag that area there that we will come all the way down there more likely an RTH than ETH given that we've only got 57 minutes left of ETH one of the thing that I've got and you know some of you have obviously noticed is I've got the absorption indicator on here in ES we can blow this up maybe see if it's easier to see let's just blow that one up and zoom in a bit vertically okay you've got two types of pink on the ES chart here and there's lots of them so let's stop for a second and start talking about what they are the dark pink is an absorption indicator so if we go to our indicators and we go there I don't change this I just leave it as it is it's just saying that in a fraction of a second there's basically been a trade of a hundred or greater okay and in ETH that's a lot more significant than RTH and since I tried more in ETH than RTH that's just interesting to me yeah in some RTH days I will double that or go to 250 but quite often I'll just be focused on other things and leave it alone so you've got the dark pink being the absorption and you've got the light pink being the icebergs so what is of note or of interest here is that as we've gone up into this wall and you know we just talk about this wall here you know aggregating all those bands together is that there is a lot of absorption taking place there which gives the basis maybe of a push down later what we haven't done actually is look at the profiles so maybe I will drag those across so that we can look in context because this is where those profiles can come in really handy so this is RTH as in white and ETH is shaded with gray light gray so and there is a big gap down from after the FOMC the end of the FOMC day to Thursday so you can see that gap there from 48 down to almost about 18 so you know a 30-point gap that's massive okay and it is not unusual if they want to explore back and tag it and looking at some of the key levels one of the ones here LML is last month's low since we're now well into September last month's low being the August low is quite a long way away so it's a quite a long time ago so it's quite a significant number potentially and it's also a big fat round number being 4400 so that's just interesting the fact that we're only 12 points off there in fact we came within 10 points off there that might be an area and then I look at the profile and see you know is this nice fat HVN you know as in an area they've done much business in something that they may want to go back to again and I can always zoom in and out on the profile to have a good look yeah but is and also look at the value there to see you know where is the value so if I dig out the pen and notice that the value really the pen did not work come on pen notice that the value really is is that part of the value which we haven't explored yet so there's a chance that you know we could get it back up to there again which has confluence or close confluence with last month's load that's just some of the stuff that I look at from a profile perspective where you know why do I have that there within near eyesight or near of my book map so that's just one of the reasons that I have it there and whilst we're doing the ES1 maybe we should have a look at the NQ1 because we normally do that in our prep as well so let us have a look at the NQ1 the NQ1 you've got a really nice distribution there in this value range we are in it right I haven't drawn it very well it's just really around about a two 14 9 1 6 50 per the mark of the black marker there but you know there is a good potential if they can get through some of this resting liquidity like you can see just there that they can get up and explore the entirety of that distribution and maybe even get a little bit into the gap but again we do not predict the future we do not even try to predict the future it's just there just saying that you have a nice curve distribution so it's possible now that we are in that distribution that we can go to the other edge of that distribution and the other edge of that distribution is up at their 15 0 2 0 mark that's just and again it's more about profiles than it is about necessarily looking at the order flow inside book map and I apologize to those of you that aren't interested in profiles okay going back on to the topic of walls and barriers and resistance so if you've got a big barrier there and you're looking for some scalp opportunities at this time of the day and again I'm not encouraging any scalps not encouraging any particular method of trading but I am encouraging a minimum of one R multiple type trading that you know if you've got such a thick barrier there you might look at you know you know where you're back into the supply zone and you've got a nice little move down there it's not huge what is that move it's only about two points and then it comes back with a decent trade 684 on that one we could zoom out and see it's a cluster of trades you've got some liquidity there yeah you could take a tight stop and try and get back to the other side of that little mini range and you know if you zoomed out there and you drew it you had a range so your range scalping is what I'd call that so you're taking a supply zone and going to the going to the demand within that range I only say that if people are actually interested in that kind of trading it's more appropriate to a dull day and a dull session than the kind of sessions that we've been having this week okay where are we 20 40 let me just stop as I said I was inviting comments and I've got a comment from trader JBR in YouTube oh no JC sorry you point out what Tom said which is that I was not showing the book map and I apologize I was on a slide at that time it's the problem when you when you've got multiple streams or scenes into OBS that you forget sometimes that the one that is streaming is not the one that you are actually looking at the comment from trader JBR good morning is that trader view when did you write that one I don't actually know I have shown trade of you trade of you or not trade of you trading view is that one right and I'm using trading view and I am endeavoring whenever I do display trading view to make sure that I only display things that are free as in there is no price attached to them is there a price attached to any of this I'm using the trading view data feed because I have that free because I have an interactive broker's account linked to that that's why that that is free none of the indicators that I ever show on trading view cost any money and the same applies equally to any of the indicators in trading view under their name mobs to 16 they are all freely available okay they do not charge for those right the profiles are in Sierra and that is where I do most of my trading I I like programming in C double plus so that that's one of the things I just find that in terms of being able to get execution processes that I have designed specifically for myself and my methodology of trading it is better to customize them yourself and build them yourself and just found that easier to do in Sierra with C double plus okay we I've got some live action here so let's just stop for a second I know I haven't quite gone through the idea section one of the things I wanted to do because Wednesday session was not recorded was doing a very very quick recap of the research paper that I linked to in the discord channel called the overnight drifts I'll do a five minute recap of that just so that it can be on YouTube and so other people can watch it later at some time okay so let's just stop for a second and dwell on the market by the way also I mean I noticed in my Wednesday feed I'd labeled these as Delta buyers and Delta sellers I've changed the labels they are the same thing but Delta was just something in my mind these numbers here at the bottom both of the ES and NQ again this is another free part of the main core part of bookmap the sub chart the sub chart forgotten what the actual word is but basically the data being displayed in this below the columns so this is simply the sum total of all sellers which is that one below one volume sellers and the sum total of all buyers which is that number there within the chart within the chart display so if I zoom right in you'll see that those numbers dwindle rapidly what I find in terms of working out if it is a good area for me or one of the things that I find is really useful to zoom in really really quickly and see you know what is being absorbed on the delta column and the seller numbers and also the total here so you know if I was zooming right into a little bit which I thought they were they were absorbing sellers I would look very quickly to get an idea of the number of sellers being absorbed and you know work out in my head as to whether or not that could equate to fuel that might drive it upwards okay interesting the the action in NQ is looking a little bit more interesting in the way that they have put in these heavy liquidity bands pushed price a long way away and the first thing that happens then is a magnetic impulse of attraction back to the liquidity so you can see relatively big move down in terms of points that was from 972 to 54 about 18 points and then it popped straight back up to the year the first liquidity and there was a decent size trade there okay so we've got 15 minutes I might go to the overnight drift okay and I have drawn this this time so I was having trouble moving around I was having trouble on this drawing here getting left and right I've now checked the instructions on the sky draw so as and when I do draw some of these flowcharts for visual strategy on future occasions I will be able to you know draw and scale so you can have an infinite canvas so I'm just saying that you know if we start drawing and start talking about a topic and it ends up going horizontally left way over to the right I'll be able to to to do that okay right the overnight drift so there was a research paper and it was an academic research paper why do I say that I say that because I don't think or I don't instinctively jump to the conclusion that there was a huge commercial incentive to the academics in writing that paper okay it was just an observation maybe they were writing it for a phd or whatever or maybe they were just making a comment to the fed reserve okay there were four statements or four four main statements the page the paper is reasonably long so there are more statements but I've I've I've cut it down to four for the purposes of this discussion for 10 minutes okay by the way I will try and keep this over here so you can keep watching es over there in case there's something that we suddenly want to stop and talk about okay the four statements firstly price by the way this story this is talking about the u.s. indices so we're talking about basically es ym and q price goes up overnight overnight is the period 1800 hours to 9 30 eastern time price goes up significantly more during the european sub-session that's the session from I think they used to am onwards than before 2 a.m. i.e. the period from 1800 to 2 a.m. there is an inventory imbalance at settlement there buying off the lows if you were to buy off the lows in europe and just use that as a strategy an objective strategy do exactly the same thing day after day after day and disregard anything else that returns significantly more money than shorting off the highs in europe okay so it's basically saying that you know if you've got a push down you might be able to trail a good trade from that push down if you've got a long somewhere near the lows okay whereas if you did the opposite at the highs it would not return you as much money okay how can these things be useful to you right i think the um the third thing which we've spoken about quite a few times in this channel we've spoken about that the market loves to come home during the eth session often loves to come home during the rth session home is settlement settlement is yesterday's close or you know as provided by the exchange it's the price that they know that they determine is the final settlement the closing price not necessarily the price that you would just chart in any old charting program but then the number the price released by the cme in terms of nq and es okay so there is inventory imbalance at settlement so it's lopsided in some way all right why will this encourage people to come home because they know that if it goes from one side i'll let me just draw this okay so let's say we have settlement here settlement it's this price here and we've got a whole bunch of let's make them let's assume they mean by by um by sellers and buyers something like this okay i've used red and greens red for sellers or pink for sellers and green for buyers this is just an example who knows what the situation really is right but um say price during asia oh no i'll have to draw it again excuse me for not doing that correctly let's go blue okay so um so that's where we open asia and say in asia we chopped around and then we had a push down into the pre-open for germany right and then you've got this level right here and you've got something called an imbalance right around there one incentive for them to drag it straight back in there and through there is to check out that imbalance because that imbalance could for example result in loads of stops so that if you get there and you get just above it you get loads of buy stops and that pushes the market even further forward and higher and they get even more return on their money from taking a long around about here off the lows and through settlement and beyond right that is why this notion of tagging home during you know the the the european session the london session the early german session becomes of interest you know that that's one thing that they noticed in their paper i don't claim to notice anything ever i have ideas some of them are generated by me some of them i just look at other people's ideas and investigate them right okay come on let's go back to the cursor now that we can we can go across so what i was talking about on wednesday is is this true okay the first thing i do whenever i read anything which could have value in my trading which is really interesting to me is ask this question is this true or is this rubbish i've got a couple of questions by the way i will get onto those in a second i'll just finish this one right so what i'm saying is that you need to go and check out whether any of these theories are true for yourself okay and the first way of doing that is manual backtesting so in nearly every charting platform that i've used you know whether it's multi charts ninja investor rtcro whatever you can create custom session templates so in other words you could you could create a session that was right you could create that as a session right and then you could look at daily bars just manual eyeballing daily bars seeing what happened in the asian session in general and then do the same for daily bars in the european session right and just see you know yeah are the buys more up bars than down bars for the european session are they bigger up bars than they are for the asian session then you drill down into sub-session so you take that and you make a smaller sub-session so it might be two hours within that or three hours within that right and then and that way you begin to work out whether whether um this theory has any legs any validity to it at all and only then do you you know you get into looking at some of these statistical ways you can analyze that uh and then you can look into ranges you can look into rotations and when you talk about details statistical analysis you can take something as basic as excel you can export your data you open high low closed bars from those sessions that you've just created analyze them in excel just just do very very simple excel formulae uh and charts to see whether any of that stacks up right and then look at the rotations within then that section now why would i say you'd look at the ranges and the rotations the ranges are just to see whether the up moves are bigger than the down moves for example and when they're bigger than the down moves i i looking at one hour bars or 30 minute bars or 15 minute bars whatever you look at rotations are really like if you were to try and start doing this you know in addition to any of the other things that you do in your trading uh let me just go back to let me uh let me go back to that now so that we for the last few minutes we have got book map on the screen um you can see some basis for why you might have held a trailing stop um or trailed for a larger move right so i'm just saying if you put in the work and you can see that in that that kind of theory and this is just one of many theories you can find out many many theories out there in x or twittland or on the internet stub stack wherever then you go and investigate it and see whether you can apply it directly to your intraday trading uh and and that's when you start you know when some of this order flow stuff that i go through in book map in nq and es has extra legs because you know if you get this wonderful trigger based on the types of order flow analysis that we've been looking at and it's somewhere near the lows after a choppy asian session somewhere near the lows relatively early in the european session and you've analyzed that and maybe the theory's got legs maybe you'll get a big trade out of it who knows who knows um right let me get on to the question so by the way there's another little cell iceberg it's not big in nq it's five and you've got a couple of icebergs in es which have been removed so that is interesting again and we're just looking at the liquidities they've added 75 down at 4 3 80 so yeah again my point about these racing icebergs they are interesting as targets but do not expect the price to come back and tag those immediately the price may go a heck of a long way and then you're going to get some structural triggers or you're likely to get some structural triggers and you can trail the target towards them but um to use them you know to to take you know oh wow we've got this there let me take a long hit that's not how i would suggest it i don't make recommendations to anyone again i cannot predict the future but that is not how i personally might play it okay we have six more minutes so we've got some questions and i will look at those okay trader jbo can you explain what are the numbers in the box what do they mean okay oh yeah i think you're talking about these boxes here or there could be a few boxes i do this occasionally in some of these streams i will talk about some of these boxes so a black number means they increase liquidity you know if you we zoomed right into es here the settings for this if the if it this is the liquidity marker that you're talking about is it shows me it shows me changes of at least 20 that's adding or taking off at least 20 and showing me up to 10 markers on the screen and ignoring any changes within four price levels of current price okay so that's all that's showing me what i'm trying to see is you know have they got more interest you know when we're down here you know to trade up towards there are they flagging that as an advert that they want people to trade up there and yeah that is what that outside marker is if you mean these boxes i think i've already explained that is just the volume of the sellers and the volume of the buyers within this chart space mason t-arts can you share your volume dot dot settings do you have a minimum two display bubble yes this week i am doing that so i will sorry i will go and show you i was doing it partly for those educational purposes because i wanted to put less noise on the heat map for demonstrating some of these abc supply demand at type structural structural setups that we talk about so if we go into the volume dot settings this is nq firstly i am filtering out anything below 10 so we still have a minimal trade size of one but we're not showing anything any dot that hasn't got at least 10 and on es it's 50 okay exactly the same basis so even if we zoomed right in on any of these dots it should not show a volume less than 10 you can see that one's 17 that one there is 21 and the reason why i'm doing it and again it's not a recommendation for your your trading price purposes at all the reason why i'm doing it is to make it clearer to you when there is a large volume trade i.e. say here you have a volume of 149 which might be one or two or three trades i'm not sure until we zoom right in that that stands out because quite often that will be the trigger for a micro swing reversal and a micro swing reversal is a kind of trigger that you might be looking for you know i mean maybe we should do the opposite here let us have a quick look at what it looks like if we go back to one so we've got nq here we just got a quite zoomed in patch and we then go back down to one right you might see what i meant you know for the purposes of saying to you this is a potential spring you know you've got a really good volume hitting into a resistance liquidity it breaks out and fails and then goes back down right it is a little bit noisy trying to explain that that might be a really good trigger for a short called an upthrust or breakout failure but if we then just you know 10 is an arbitrary number i chose 10 because i like the the lower amount of noise that you see right and we took a look at the same the same potential setup right and you know you might have wanted to short this here i'm saying that you did get a nice trade of 42 there the trade that it took out was 147 but they're all relatively clear that looks really big and that is the idea that it's not crowded by dozens and dozens of dots so you cannot see that that trade there is large and that trade there is sizable so that is the only purpose of why i have them there and again in those settings i am looking at volume as 3d bubbles i am not looking at delta i know a lot of people use bookmap and they do look at delta and that is entirely up to them right i i am more interested in large transactions because you know large transactions are part of what i consider auction theory auction theory is all about you know trading in a certain in a certain direction or bouncing around a certain zone so to facilitate a trade right trade is measured in volume it is not measured in delta inside my brain so that is just an explanation of why those dots are partly filtered and again part of this is a teaching session yes i do trade but i want to demonstrate how you look at the market so i have to do this partly in an educational way so that you don't get blindsided by the millions of dots because many of those dots might be meaningless to you in what you are looking for so it might be better to see them filtered out so that you can focus on the larger ones at the structural locations that you might be looking for right i think i've rattled on for a good hour so i will call it a day i am again i hope that it was a value to people i tried to cover a fair bit so i'm have a lovely weekend and good trading today