 Right welcome everybody. So today I keep getting the question about Where's the market going? What's happening and is December the next bull run? I had to take a step back just think about it because maybe I'm just biased and a little bit too bearish So I had to try to peel back the data and see what it shows us So we're gonna take a look at December potentially starting the bull run Maybe also take a look at some of the data Bitcoin having 15 months out starts the crypto bull run Or is that the case and we'll take a look at the data there and we'll go over some I think more important perspective, which is the timing nuances Recessions quantity of tidying fed pivots and soft landings And lastly we'll quickly go over what's going on in the crypto market as far as the news Which is there's layoffs by buy bits looks like the ripple Legal team has rested their case looks like decisions coming potentially March 2023 Also take I'll talk about my decision to step down from the dca show and just give a little perspective and finally finally We'll do a little q&a. So let's just jump into a lot of things to cover. So the first things first, which is this It was uh pretty interesting. I had this um This tweet sent over to me. This is from timothy pertas and peterson. Excuse me chief financial Uh analyst and uh, he is the investment manager at cane islands alternative advisors Went down stocks went down gold bitcoin spreads like a virus and he came out and said look he goes I just went through 840 months of data Three consecutive up months signaled the end of the bear market in every single case. Let me say that again three consecutive up months Singled the end of the bear market in every case one false positive 2001, which was a pretty bad time. We'll be honest October and November 2022 are both up. So if December is up, I'd say 90 chance the bear market is over There's your december signal. I had to take a step back. I thought about I go 840 months quite a long time I think he's talking about equities because we haven't been around that long For crypto right only been around 12 years or so since 2009 so I thought I think he's just talking about uh equities and stocks and then I also I took a look at uh Ben's website, which I steal all this data as much as I possibly can and uh, don't worry I don't show anything like super important like uh time and risk bands. That's pretty cool stuff But this one bitcoin monthly returns double you can find this anywhere not a big deal and you can see that in 2022 specifically Which would be this this year uh november was kind of a Crappy month. We were down 16 percent in october for some reason. We did pretty well 5 percent and october Historically has been a pretty good month. It's only had four negative months uh since 2010 and uh, so that's After the all-time high so in 2017 we had an all-time high in october negative 3 percent in 2013. We had an all-time high 2014 negative month So I was expecting a little bit of a negative month But no which gave me gave me hope for november and that was dashed of course And now here we are in december and so far we're down just a little bit But who knows so again for this little piece right here I would say it's uh pretty much Talking about equities and moving from there, but then there's another piece That caught my attention that that was pretty interesting Which was a comment From livy livy ughd. He says this is a fud channel debatable, but okay He says making money from shorting, but you are wrong bull market is in january We're just close to december thing and I said, hey, man. I hope you're right quite honestly I don't think we're gonna see any much big fireworks till 2025, but there was uh It had a lot of comments quite honestly, but there was one that struck me is quite interesting From crypto riccardo. Uh, he's been falling for a while Good insights and stuff like that And uh, he says look rob him a longtime follower and you see is a good read of general sentiment Also debatable So if you don't think the bull market would back in 2023 it probably will no offense Which is he's talking about, you know Usually when people think something's gonna happen the exact opposite happens But hey, someone's got to be right and someone's got to be wrong So he says again if december closes green It'll be pretty good and then Comment on timothy peterson And of course we took a look at that. I was at equities not crypto and crypto does fall in line with The traditional markets but not all the time And he made a good point here He goes also if you base your thesis on bitcoin having which I do if history is an indication The bull market starts roughly 14 to 16 months before the having Now that I thought it was interesting 14 to 16 months before the having which is meant to be around april 2024 April 2024 actually it's march april. He's right minus 15 months equals january 2023 So, okay, let's take a peek. First of all, let's define exactly what a bull run or a bear one potentially is and from that This is just uh from just information picked out Bull markets are associated with a rosy or healthy economic environments where asset prices have risen by at least 20% And are expected to continue rising. So again bull markets 20% or more and they expect expectations of continuing rising Bear markets when we when we fall by 20% and we think it's going to keep going down. Got it. Got it So if we take a look here, here's the bitcoin having record We had one in two november 2012 July 2016 and may 2020 and we're going to go for 2024 roughly around march april somewhere around there so If that be in the case, let's take the first one November 2012 and if we go to what I use all the time coin get go. It doesn't even go back that far It stops at 2013. So for accurate historical data for bitcoin you have to go to 99bitcoins.com very simple to find and if we take a look back again For let's just let's just stick with 15 months 14 to 16 months. We'll we'll we'll split hairs roughly 15 months. So november 2012 if we go back 15 months or so Now we're looking at This isn't it august september somewhere around there Of 2011 remember one year back plus plus three months or so so august september I took a look at i'm like, you know, if that Would indicates the bull run bull run you could have bought Bitcoin at almost nine bucks, which let's be honest Would anybody complain if like, oh man, I got it for nine bucks? and unfortunately later I had to buy it for I could have bought it for You know two dollars, of course, that's a big difference, right? And this is what I'm trying to get to If you had to buy it at Roughly eight dollars nine dollars Because that's one of the time, you know 14 to 16 months, but if we move forward Again november of 2012 was the bitcoin having So if you just take out 12 months You could have got a pretty a lot less Is it a big deal probably not but then moving forward three dollars four dollars six dollars somewhere around here Even if you wait a little bit longer And this is guaranteed a bear market, right? You could have still seen some pretty impressive gains moving forward So maybe the bear market's over But uh, I'm not going to back up the truck and buy everything So moving forward, let's take a look also at 2016 july 2016. So we take that minus 15 months Looking at april 2015 somewhere around there and this one a little bit more accurate You're looking at 232 bucks for bitcoin again, would that be awful? No, especially all the different altcoins you could have gotten So 235, but what if you just weighed a little bit and just didn't get in you could have gotten a lower in august Which again If you're looking at 14 to 16 months That would be 11 months before the having Right around here And you got up for 225, which is pretty close to 243 or whatever it was, right? So if you mess up you're like, well, I think it's 14 16 months for sure It's not always the case Now let's take a look at May 2020 so 15 months prior you're looking at February 2019 somewhere around there So again, this one's a little more accurate So February 2019 you could have got bitcoin at $3,400 and 64 3,464 And we take a look that really was a pretty good time to buy because it didn't really come down too much until right around Yeah, not even there Then the next dip was in 2020 of march $5,000 so this one sure it could be But the point i'm trying to make here is this is that even if you Miss the timing go, okay. Well, these are some hard rules 14 to 16 months. I'm gonna do it like that There's still opportunities out there and it's just people will say well This is they're so sure that this is the bottom and this is the top and this is this And I look at that and I think to myself Is it really that important to shave off? The pennies or the thousands As opposed to the hundreds of thousands. Yes in 2011 you could shave off pennies to get you know thousands of dollars Here there's a diminishing return type of thing. So Are we spinning our wheels a little bit too much to deal with this? And maybe if we just I don't know do this thing called dollar cost averaging move forward That's what works for me. Anyhow, let me know what you think about that in the comment section That will leave me my next point The nuances of time And this was brought to my attention, which I think everybody knows right now By simon which I call the sign indicator and he says and yeah, I think he's being besieged here People don't realize this is the first bear market in a recession So far every crypto bear market has been in the equities Bull market the pen will be a while and of course people will say well come on simon I mean, it's not like nobody knows that but I think in all honesty a lot of people don't Not not you who are here if you're here right now, you're not a tourist. You're a seasoned veteran I'm not talking to you. I'm talking to people who the people who come up to you on the streets Your relatives your friends family and say, hey, what's up with this bitcoin? Well, it's down right now. I don't think they realize They obviously don't That the whole time we've done this whole crypto market It's been in a pretty big upswing and quantitative easing moving forward. So Again, the nuances are this we could be in this next bull run But just remember that it comes down to a lot of factors and one of those is well first the Fed This was from November 28th the Fed presidency's inflation fight stretching into 2024 What does that mean? That means that I don't know if they're going to keep raising rates, but they're not going to lower them This is the Federal Reserve head of st. Louis expect the central banks fight to curb high inflation in the u.s To stretch into 2024 That this is the Fed reserve president james bullard looks pretty happy right here crushing people's dreams I'm just kidding, but not really because I think we'll probably have to stay there all during 2023 and into 2024 Meeting minutes from the federal open market committee foam c. I foam c suggests that it's next meeting in december Board members were open to raising interest rates by 50 basis points instead of another 75 basis point hike But again, they they raise those rates And they're going to keep them there for a while. And what does that mean? Probably a recession Forecast by bloomberg hits it at 100 percent other places will say 92 98 percent some people say that we're not even going to a recession whatsoever I personally think we will go into it as we see a little bit more of the tightening economy and speaking of tightening tightening and conditions There's quantitative easing which is where we start to print money like crazy and we're really good at that america Now we're not so good the other part quantitative tightening This is domestic security holdings as a number 30th This is from the new york fed dot org and you can see that the change from prior the week This is in thousand so you're looking at they're they printed so much money and put it out there now It's time to take back The fed giveth and the fed take it away and right now read negative 32 billion as they Ratchet up for quantitative tightening and take everything or not take everything But take a good chunk back here and there off their trillions that they added on their balance sheet so just be aware of that also You have to remember that even if the fed pivots and there's a lot of definitions from when the fed pivots is Is the fed pivoting? when they start to decrease The amounts of rate changes. I don't think that's what we're talking about here I think we're talking about when we top out from the federal funds rate and they start to either stall Or decrease those rates and you can see that even when we and we're not even close We're not well, maybe we're close. I should take that back but even when the fed pivots The feds like okay, you know the funds rates is at the all-time high We've gotten inflation under control Recession to this job It'll still go down negative 40 negative 27 percent. This is back in the 70s and 80s even the current 90s 2000s 19 roughly of course that was A little pandemic called coronavirus. I don't know if you heard about that, but it was big And yeah, so you can see that even when the fed pivots and their federal funds effective rate tops out You're still gonna have some pain and again the federal funds effective rate We're not This may be the top But they just talked about that they're gonna raise rates in december's meeting So don't expect that and even after that how long is it gonna take? Who knows? So again, I do see a little bit more pain on the horizon, but I will just say this The news is just the news the news is is just data It's either it's either good news or bad news. It's all how you look at it for me I always take a look at this and go well I mean at least I know and I'm prepared for the future. So I don't really See it so much as like this is the negative thing of all time and everything's gonna collapse And to say well, that's the data now The question is what do I do with that data and that is where you come You're smart enough to figure it out. You can take things that are that are Thrown at you And I think that's uh with the information that you get at least you can mentally be prepared So you can say okay. I know this is coming I'm gonna plan for both sides of the of the same coin and I move forward Whatever that is for you is you for me. It's personally. I just continue to Again So for me, it's just so it's simple. I just buy a little bit and I wait I don't Gary again, just trying to shut me down. Are all my investments been out? Probably not. I mean, let's be honest that wag me You're all gonna make it. We're not all gonna make it. That's why I diversify So let me just think about that in the comment section now. Let's finish up with Some quick crypto news and this is important Because this is these are the things that I look at to see What's gonna be the next Exchange project that uh, we'll make it so buy bit and swift x believe they're in australia Join the list of crypto firms reducing workforce. This is on top of uh, kraken It's laid off 30 and that's how businesses work and I applaud them for this because if you want to keep going and stay Have buoyancy and keep your head above water. This is what you have to do. This is from benzao The buy bits CEO has had difficult decision made today, but tough times demand tough decisions I just announced plans to reduce our workforce As part of an ongoing reorganization of the business as we move to refocus our efforts the deepening of their market The plan laughs will be across the board 30% same thing as uh kraken It's important to ensure buy bit is the right structure and resources in place to navigate the market slowdown And is nimble enough to seize the many opportunities ahead. I gotta applaud you for that You know, you didn't full up like a lot of these centralized exchanges go Hey, we know you we have all your funds, but we're gonna fold and we're gonna keep everything In chapter 11 and good luck getting a back suckers Good job, ben You doing what you're supposed to do to keep things above water and uh, maybe the next bull run and you guys will be the dominant Crypto exchange not for sure, but at least you'll be around and that's what's important Also, if we take a look at a great website called nomics By bits not small If you take a look at uh, the amount of volume Binance is number one Hold on. What happened here? Let me let me reshuffle this Ah, that's better. Binance is still number one 24 percent. Okay x is 5.42 percent and being x is 4.9 percent All they used to be ftx not anymore bit get 4 percent and then buy bit Almost 3 percent and you have bit 4x maxi global who will be bit true Coinbase exchange That's a weird 0.87. Huh. Look at that And so on and so forth. So again, I think it's a pretty Big player in the game as they lay off and continue to build And lastly for everybody who still owns ripple or excuse me xrp myself included. This is pretty big Ripple files final submission against sec is landmark case near zen. I gotta tell you I'm tired of hearing about this case It's almost over. It's almost over. It's almost over. This is why I didn't cover it because it gets just kind of dull But looks like we're here Ripple argued in this motion document that the sec has failed to prove it's offering of xrp Between 13 and 2020 was an offer sale of an investment contract and therefore a security Stuart alderati Nailed it general counsel of ripple stayed on twitter on December 3rd. This is ripple's final submission Action the court to grant judgment in its favor Alderati continued to slam the sec on December 5th and referred to it as a bouncing regulator quoting two statements he suggests it ends with each other Which the how we provides a clear express test For determining what constitutes an investment contract. This of course is from 1933 I believe when they determine what would be a Security which is kind of weird because I mean we barely had cars at that point sec April 22nd, 721, then they talk about him and speech what he's talking about here Said there's really three issues left to resolve Said the summary judgment motions expert challenges and sealing issues were going to the expert reports And the Hinman documents and other material laid out by the sec and their motions and ripple The Hinman document referred to the speech that William Hinman delivered at the yahoo finance all market summit Where he said that ether was not a security which I got to tell you if I'm an investor and I hear the head of the sec at that point go it's not a security. I may have FOMO'd in a little too hard. So who's responsible there? and then one big Written ruling will be released likely on or before march 31st 2023 for all these Three issues summary judgments expert challenges Hinman documents and that would be by judge torris So hopefully this is true We can get a little clarity about what's going on and if that happens expect xrp to go up exponentially if they Just went part of it and go from there and then lastly my decision to Take off from dca. So look that I think they just did their show a little bit ago. It was uh, james and cto larson and uh Banter something like that and look it's a great great lineup. Sounds good. I just had to tell james ago Man, I think it's time for me to step away for a bit. We've been doing it for a year I thought things needed a new direction and uh said well, it's good enough I just went over there wish those guys well looks like a banger of a of a format and that's it So I'm gonna take a little step back a lot of things going on and um, just time for new horizons So I wish those guys the best and that's it. No hard feelings is that's why I told james and he's understand and then lastly just a little perspective because I know we get wrapped up in our The day-to-day conundrums of the crypto market of things that are going on I want you to take a look at this So this right here. This is uh, glenny crings Lenny crings cute five-year-old durable She has inoperable brain cancer And they gave her three to six months So as a parent mean people who have kids, you know, this is devastating So what they did was the parents they Gave her the best birthday she could possibly have the whole town pitched in there was a parade balloons And activities and it was just the best thing of all time because she probably won't hit her sixth birthday And I wrote it like this like a week get wrapped up in our day-to-day. We want the crypto to go up We want our investments to go up. But is that the big thing? It's not the big thing The big thing is getting out there and living life, right? And then also just remember this Healthy people you and I have a thousand wishes, but a sec a sick person only has one So just remember this when you think to yourself man life is tough It's not that bad and that's it. So look that's it for today If you like today's video, give it a thumbs up I consider subscribing a lot of things we talk about our time sensitive mostly And that is it. So now if you want to stick around and do a little q&a I'll be here. I'll answer all your burning questions to the best of my abilities as we go from there So if you gotta take off take off here in 20 minutes now, let's get into my favorite part of the show little q&a We were this banner all right Bicky reminds me not financial legal attacks advice the channel's room tamper zoning Dan is not an expert obviously or financial planners. These are just my opinions