 Hey everyone, this is Dan. BioNTech and Moderna have been moving up quite a bit in the last few days. Let's see what's going on. First of all, let's review my price predictions in the video I posted on April 16, 2021. In that video, I predicted that Moderna will be at $200 a share and BioNTech at $210 a share before the end of 2021. On April 16, Moderna was at $170 and BioNTech at $151. Today is Sunday, May 2, 2021. As of last Friday, April 30, 2021, Moderna closed at $178 and BioNTech closed at $188. Both stocks have gone up quite a bit since I made my prediction, and they are now getting much closer to my price targets. As of today, I'd like to give a little preview. My prediction will be that Moderna will be still at $200 a share and BioNTech at $210 a share, except I believe they will reach those targets by the end of August of this year, instead of having to wait till the end of December of this year, because things are looking very bullish based on the developments in the last two, three weeks. Let me tell you more. In the next few minutes, I'll be talking about the most important news that happened recently, which drove up the stock prices. And we'll look at the new COVID cases in the US, UK, and Israel, where they have high percentages of people vaccinated with either the Moderna vaccine or the BioNTech vaccine. The case counts in these countries is a good indication of how well those vaccines are working. We'll look at the evaluation of the two companies, and we'll compare the different vaccines available in the market now. And then finally, we will look at technical analysis. We will check out the charts. A recent piece of news that actually caused the Moderna stock as well as BioNTech stock to go down a little bit, but since then the stock prices have recovered. It is that the White House is reportedly considering how to vaccinate the world. They are saying that maybe the White House should temporarily stop the patent protections for COVID related patents. If you have been watching my Moderna videos, you will remember that I mentioned Moderna way back on October 8th of 2020 already made a statement that they would not enforce their COVID-19 related patents during the pandemic. And they are willing to license their intellectual property for COVID-19 vaccine to others for the post pandemic period. Therefore, the discussion about waiving the patent is really a move point as far as Moderna is concerned. Moderna has also received billions of dollars of funding from the US during the development process of the COVID vaccine. And that's why the White House has some leverage in terms of persuading Moderna to make the vaccine available to developing nations. Although I don't think that'll come in the form of waiving the patent protection. Something will happen. I will explain more. In the meanwhile, the World Health Organization just authorized Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use. I think this is going to lead to implementation of the Moderna vaccine in the developing nations. And back in December 31st, 2021, the World Health Organization already approved the emergency use of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. This is what I think will happen. First of all, Moderna received billions of dollars of US government funding for their vaccine development process. And that's why they will be open to persuasion of the US government in terms of making the vaccine more available to developing nations. And Moderna is most likely to license pharmaceutical companies to manufacture the vaccine for developing nations at lower prices than what they've been charging for developed nations. Because there's more than just the patents. There's also the know-how of how to formulate the ingredients describing the patent so that it will be viable. And those are the things that any other manufacturer cannot easily learn without the help from Moderna. That's why these drug manufacturers would need to have the cooperation from Moderna to train them how to make the vaccine. And BioNTech will most likely follow suit after Moderna has made the agreements. Now in my evaluation of the two companies, I only assume 20.5% of the world population is covered by the two vaccines in 2022 and 2023. Therefore, if the White House is able to persuade Moderna to license their methods to additional drug companies for the developing nation, then we still have almost 80% of the world population to cover. Even at a lower price, it will be an increase to the valuation of both companies. And I don't think they will change the pricing much for the developed nations. And also in my pricing model, I assume there will be a gradual decrease in the prices for the Moderna vaccine and the BioNTech vaccine due to competition, especially in the year 2022 and 2023. And that's why I'm so confident about pricing target of Moderna being at $200 a share and BioNTech at $210 a share by the end of August this year. More news items. Based on the report from the New York Times, the EU is in the process of sealing the deal with Pfizer-BioNTech for 1.8 billion doses of the vaccine for 2022 and 2023. Notice that the EU has only a population of about 440 million people with 1.8 billion doses. That's enough to supply all the people in the EU pretty much for 2022 and 2023. And that's definitely a huge order. But in the meanwhile, that also take away from the business opportunities for Moderna, unfortunately. And that's why my most recent price projection for BioNTech is $210 and only $200 for Moderna. Because it looks like the EU is favoring the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine over the Moderna vaccine. Not surprisingly because BioNTech is a German company, whereas even though Pfizer is an American company, but they've teamed up with this German company, whereas Moderna is an American company. And you might know that the EU is traditionally very protective of European companies. And that's why they will be leaning towards Pfizer-BioNTech more so than towards Moderna. BioNTech recently increased the production target of 2.5 billion doses a year, which is in line with my calculation for the value of stock. And then Moderna recently announced that they would aim for building 3 billion doses in 2022. I think probably they are already talking with the White House as far as increasing the production so that they can supply the developing nations. Recently, as of April 20th, EU announced that they have reached agreement to increase the purchase from Pfizer-BioNTech by 100 million doses. And also UK recently announced that they bought an extra 60 million doses of the BioNTech vaccine. So these two pieces of news are definitely very positive for BioNTech and that's why BioNTech has been going up quite a bit in the last few days, much more so than Moderna. Both Pfizer and Moderna are saying that booster shots are probably going to be needed. And both companies are saying that their vaccines are effective for probably six months. Some other news items, both Moderna and BioNTech are testing booster shots for the new variants and also both companies have been conducting trials including children as young as age five and they hope to have results by June 2021. So these are all very bullish news items for both companies. That's why I believe the stock prices will continue to go up. If you like what you've seen so far, please click the like, subscribe and notification button so that you'll be notified when I post an updated video. And also this is for the sake of the YouTube algorithm. Thank you very much. Let's continue. Let's compare the different COVID vaccines. The Pfizer BioNTech vaccine is a two-dose vaccine and it's about 95% effective selling for about $20 but those with the recent contracts Moderna is also about 95% effective. It's a two-dose vaccine and it's been selling for $32 to $37 per dose. We're more expensive. And then Johnson & Johnson is a one-dose vaccine but it's only 68% effective and it's been selling for $10 a dose. And then AstraZeneca, 76% effective. It's a one-dose vaccine and it's selling for only $3 to $4 a dose but it's got blood clotting issues. Johnson & Johnson also has blood clotting issues but looks like AstraZeneca seems to have more serious problems with its issues. That's why the rollout of the AstraZeneca vaccine has been stopped in quite a few countries. The Sinovac vaccine made by China, it's a two-dose vaccine depending on where it's reporting. The effectiveness ranges from 91% to 50% and Sinovac also by China is a two-dose vaccine. It's reported to be 86% effective based on the report from UAE and then CanSino also from China it's a one-dose vaccine. It's about 66% effective. Then Gamalaya Sputnik from Russia is reported to be about 91% effective. Overall Moderna and BioNTech have the vaccines that are the best defense against COVID-19 and that's why I believe the developed nations especially the Democratic nations will gravitate towards Moderna and BioNTech. Let's look at the daily new cases in the US. In the US so far 43.6% of the population already received the first shot and then the 30.5% of the population already received the second shot. As you can see the case count has been going down. UK 51% of the people have received the first dose and 22% received the second dose. The decrease is even more impressive. Then Israel they have the higher percentage of population receiving the first dose than both US and UK. 59% of the people received the first dose and 56% of the people received the second dose. The case count is almost zero by now and that's the indication that the Moderna and BioNTech vaccines are indeed very effective against the original strain of virus as well as any new mutations that have been going around the world. This is the recap of a slide I showed in my April 16 video. In that video I mentioned that because the other vaccines are really not as effective as Moderna's or BioNTech's and some of them have pretty bad side effects and that's why Moderna BioNTech will start displacing the other vaccine. With my estimate I believe Moderna and BioNTech will be getting 1 billion more doses of contracts in 2021 and those orders will be shifted from AstraZeneca and Johnson and Johnson and it's already happening as you can see from the last few slides that the EU already placed in order for 100 million additional doses with BioNTech and then UK placed in order for additional 60 million doses. This is a recap of the Moderna evaluation that I showed in my previous videos. With these calculations and assumptions I arrived at my forecast of $200 a share. Now the latest development is that Moderna is planning for 3 billion doses for 2022 and 2023. That means the volume will be tripled from my calculation and no matter at what price it sells to the developing nations it will definitely increase the valuation of Moderna. For BioNTech my calculations and assumptions arrived at $210 a share. The number of doses for 2022-2023 are about 2.2 billion doses which is in line with the latest news we heard. Let's look at analyst's opinions. For Moderna the current price is $178.82. My price targeted $200 by the end of August 2021. The Yahoo business target is $175.5 which is lower than the current price. Lewis-Nevillier gives them an overall A rating to ranks.com gives them a moderate buy and the high rating compared to the 416 number is still the same 234. The average price target has been increased from 165 to 177 and the low target has been increased from 80 to 100. So that's a bullish sign. CNN Money gives them a buy rating. The high estimate is 234 unchanged. Medium rating 182 unchanged and the low rating actually got a little bit lower from 80 to 78. For BioNTech the current price is $188.28. My target is $210 by the end of August 2021 and Yahoo business increased the price target a little bit from 126 to 128 which is still way below the current price and below my target. Lewis-Nevillier gives them an overall A rating which is a strong buy and tip ranks.com gives them a moderate buy rating with the high target increased from 130 to 152. Average target increased from 117 to 126 and low target remains the same at 104. Overall I believe the analysts are still not catching up with what's happening in reality especially after BioNTech is able to sign a contract with the EU for 2022 and 2023. I'm pretty sure the professional analysts will significantly increase the price targets for BioNTech. Let's look at how the stock prices have been moving with the broad market. The candlestick chart here is from Moderna. This is the daily chart for the last six months and the white color chart here is BioNTech. The yellow color chart here is TCCQ which is a triple ETF picked to the NASDAQ 100 index and then the red line here is SPY which is the ETF picked to the standard pool 500 and the blue line here is QQQ which is the ETF picked to the NASDAQ 100. As you can see in the last six months Moderna went up an impressive 166 percent and BioNTech went up an impressive 116 percent whereas TCCQ only went up by 83 percent and S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 only went up by 25 percent. This is a three-month chart comparing the two companies with the broad market. BioNTech jumped up by an impressive 64 percent in the last three months primarily because of the news about the impending contract with the EU and then Moderna also went up by about 12 percent not nearly as impressive as BioNTech. SPY QQQ and TQQ only went up by about 3 to 10 percent. Let's look at BioNTech this is the daily chart for the last six months the stock really went up impressively in the last three four weeks it was just going up and up because of the all the positive news about new orders from the European Union. We see the buy signal here from DMI way back about three four weeks ago and it's still positive same bullish buy signal from MACD. Now we do see the warning sign here from RSI which has been above 70 since three weeks ago but it's still going up and up that tells you how bullish the stock is. Is it going to come down pretty soon? At this point I would say unless it touches the upper bolinger band and also it hits some of the resistance points on the Fibonacci expansion that I think it will still continue to go up especially if you look at the short interest ratio in the last few days the short interest ratio is actually going down which is the bullish sign which is currently sitting at about 13 and definitely not high and that means I don't think there is going to be impending drop in the price of BioNTech however when the contract is signed between BioNTech Pfizer and the EU for the 1.8 billion doses I think people will start selling on the news because that development has been brewing pretty much for the last two three weeks. After the announcement is made and or maybe shortly before the announcement is made if I see the stock price starting to drop for more than three to four percentage point I will most likely sell maybe half of my BioNTech shares but long term I'm still bullish about BioNTech. I'm not a financial advisor you should make your own decision with regard to buying or selling stocks I share my trading strategy for educational purpose only let's continue let's look at the supporting resistance levels for BioNTech because we are now way above the previous peak here around 130 or so that's why I have to rely on the Fibonacci extension to predict the resistance points for the Fibonacci extension I used this minimum point in late August and this maximum point in December that's the basis and I see first of all the support from the Fibonacci extension at 177, 168 and 161 and resistance at 190 and 206. Let's look at Moderna this is the daily chart for the last six months looks like the price broke out of this triangular pattern and started to head up in the last couple weeks however it's not quite there yet as far as reaching the previous peak which is around 189 and that of course will turn into a very strong resistance level in the meanwhile we see this high RSI point at almost 70 about four days ago and then since then it came down a little bit so after a bit of consolidation in my starting to pick up again we do see a positive buy signal from DMI about three weeks ago and a positive buy signal from MHCD about the same time and so far both of them are still bullish to look at a short interest ratio it's it went down for the last one to about three days and then it went up after the fourth day and then at this point it's at around 16 it's a little bit higher than the short interest ratio of 13 some and change for BioNTech but 16 is still not very high as you can see back in august it was as high as 36 when the price dropped and that's why I don't think Moderna at least from the short interest ratio is not pointing to an imminent drop yet let's look at the support and resistance level again I'm using the Fibonacci extension using this point in January as a low point and this point in February as a high point and I see the support level at 170 158 and 124 these are historical levels and then resistance from the Fibonacci extension I see at 185 which is actually a historical level and 189 that's the historical peak and then going to the Fibonacci extension of 194 and oh actually 194 it's upper bowling event which of course we move from day to day but I would believe that in the next two three days if the price gets close to 194 it'll be a resistance level and then 206 which is Fibonacci extension of 23.6 percent again I'm bullish on both stops and but we have to be careful when the good news for BioNTech is announced about contract with the EU people might start selling on the news to restate my targets Moderna I believe will be at $200 a share and BioNTech at $210 a share before the end of August 2021 if you're watching this video a few days after mage second 2021 please make sure to check out the update section below this video just in case I've entered any update notes if you like what you've seen so far please click on the like subscribe and notification button as usual I will very much welcome your comments questions and suggestions thank you very much I'd like to mention again that I'm not a financial advisor you should make up your own decision before buying or selling stock and you should probably consult with the financial advisors before you do so I share my stock trading strategies for educational purpose only this about wraps up my video for now I will chat with you again in the next few days in the meanwhile I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments