 Hello, everyone. Welcome to another IR capsule for the Shankar IAS Academy. Last week, we spoke about the Raisina dialogue in Delhi, which was participated by about 99 countries, senior officials, ministers, etc. And I said that this was an inopportune time for a dialogue like that because quite unnecessarily the focus was on India's position on the Russia-Ukraine war. European leaders, one after the other, questioned India as to why India was on the side of autocrats and not of democrats. And so the two days of conversations, much of the time was taken by the Minister of External Affairs defending as it were India's position in a kind of combative manner. He told them back that India is an independent country and we do not want any kind of advice beyond what is necessary. Even in the United Nations, Ambassador Thiti Murthy said, don't tell us what we should do, we know what we should be doing in international affairs. So it was some kind of a kid for cat dialogue. And that didn't seem to go very well with India's very good relations with Europe. So but within a few days after that, President Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself went to several European countries, because he went to three places, but in Germany, he had a meeting with the new chancellor. Then he went to Copenhagen, Denmark, where the Nordic states, six of them met, there was a Nordic summit and upwards on his way back, he also met President Macron of France, who has recently been re-elected. This may have been a coincidence, maybe these meetings were fixed long ago, I don't know, particularly the summit, it could not have been called in a few days. But maybe he combined it with Germany and France to give a better perspective on what is happening in Europe. The one change that has taken place in Europe after President Putin invaded Ukraine was that there is a greater unity between the NATO countries and generally Europe with the United States. Because during the President Trump's days, he distanced himself further and further away from his allies. He felt that the United States was spending so much money on NATO and he told them that they should spend their own money to strengthen their defenses and the United States cannot keep on paying for it. And the Europeans resented it and there was a certain amount of defense opinion come between President Trump and NATO as a whole. And that had created some misunderstanding and the European Union leaders were saying that now we have to stand on our own, we cannot depend on the United States etc. This was the state of affairs when President Trump lost the election and left the scene. President Biden immediately tried to rebuild this relationship. He went to Europe, talked to various people and generally gave the impression that the United States depends on the European Union and NATO as their most important allies. Of course they were their most important allies all through. But the disturbances, the things that started during the President Trump's time, they had the impression that they had to work on their own. Which of course gave us an opportunity of dealing with these countries independent of the United States. We were working with Germany, Europe and France, Europe and UK and there wasn't much of a coordination between them and the United States with regard to India. But after the war started, NATO, the European Union, all of them have come much closer to the United States and the United States welcomed it and started supporting them and also giving them arms and ammunition as necessary and also started siding the Ukrainian government against Moscow. And so this new unity between the Europeans and the Americans has created a slight problem for us because the Americans and the Europeans started saying the same things. They have the same kind of opinion that Putin is a dangerous dictator. He must be defeated and even the soft-spoken Europeans like the Scandinavians or the Nordics etc. all united against Putin and that unity was demonstrated in the number of sanctions. All the sanctions are bound into 100 sanctions and all these countries, about 41 countries in the world have got together and imposed very strict sanctions against Putin and consequently there is a problem everywhere, not really in Europe but also in Asia, Africa everywhere, there is a crunch, there is an energy crunch taking place, people are trying to find ways of escaping it. There is a food security problem and there is a security problem itself and there is a nuclear threat. So all these new elements have come up after February as a result of this and nobody knows where this war is going and the Europeans and the Americans have said we will not fight any war, you will meet this crisis by sanctions and so it is a sensitive situation and what they cannot understand, what America cannot understand and what the other European Union countries also do not understand is why India is not on the side of democracies. These are all democracies and there is a movement towards unity of democracies etc. And in this situation, how come India is with Russia, of course we are not with Russia, we are very clear, we have criticized what Russia has done and but what we did not do is to join the, of course voting, abstaining on the resolutions is one thing. Then not joining the sanctions because these sanctions are not given sanctions, so it is not compulsory. It is advisory that they have given a big country to boycott Russia, but we could not boycott Russia because of our good relations with Russia, one. And secondly we felt that we must somehow contribute to the resolution of the problems of energy of food etc. We are trying to be helpful and this has been seen by the Americans as well as the Europeans as some kind of a problem in their relationship with India. So all of them came to India basically to find out why India is taking this position and also to persuade us to change our position. All of them mentioned their strong ties with India, the beneficiary cooperation that we have these countries and therefore on the whole, the dialogue left a kind of as they say a bad taste in the mouth as well as India. And this is why this visit was very important. Of course, I am sure Mr. Modi when he went to this visit meet these leaders. They must have talked to him about Ukraine, definitely and he must have given an answer. But it has been mentioned in all the joint communications that were mentioned together with various other things. But the focus Mr. Modi ensured is on a long term cooperation with Europe and USA not to link it with the present problem. It is a problem just to be solved and everyone wants it to be solved and India is taking the position that we have taken the best way to solve it that is reconciliation, diplomacy, ceasefire, coming to an agreement and not war or sanctions. So but when they say no war or sanctions against Russia and impression is created that we are trying to be on the side of Russia which for Americans and the Europeans wrong side of history as a part because India is a democracy how can it be on the side of Russia. But we must remember that we had good relations with Russia even in the Cold War and nobody complained because there was some mutuality mutuality of interest between India and Russia and Russia was the only country was willing to buy Indian consumer goods and in exchange we were able to get heavy machinery industry. So that's how it started. There's not an ideological linkage at all, not a linkage of mutuality and there was a greater mutuality between India and the Soviet Union than with the United States that was the reason and therefore we were able to manage to do many things in India thanks to the United States without having to go through the Americans or using the US dollars. So there was a rupee arrangement, rupee ruble arrangement even at that time. So in two cases we decided to bring back those arrangements. One was to buy Russian oil we also used to buy earlier but Russian oil was available at a cheaper price after the war and then we decided to buy some a few tons of oil at a cheaper price and also we started talking about a rupee ruble arrangement so that whatever train which takes place with Russia is calculated on a differential basis something like a mortar arrangement. So these two things they found them quite effective that India is not going to be but in Delhi we made it very clear we are not going to change this policy but we look forward to better relations with Europe in the long term and so that is what he did in each of these countries in Germany for example. So the questioning on Ukraine must have continued and the Prime Minister must have said some things but what we did was to say that once the war is solved or the war solution is a different matter and for that effort is being made by everybody else but we would like to look beyond it rather than look at the war so but this approach by India that we should look beyond the war and not to solve the war was considered unethical or unacceptable to them. So somewhere he talked to them or immediate concern, immediate consequence of the war was increased cooperation as I mentioned so in Germany for example he was going there fifth time and shows how deep our good relations with Germany is and he has gone there for the first time after the new chancellor was elected so this was a good opportunity for him to meet the new chancellor and also to talk about the various linkages between India and Germany. Most important being economic, not only economic climate change because the Europeans had a softer attitude to climate change than the Americans all through they have supported several initiatives so we have very strong ties with them and on climate change we also have this international solar alliance for which we are very supportive from France and we have had a, sorry, from Germany and Germany also has had, Germany is one of the biggest trading partners so we started discussing these what are the things that we can do between Germany and India rather than talking about the war we should talk about what the multifaceted relation between India and Europe was and that was much more fundamental to the situation and all the future rather than looking at one single issue. Ukraine is only a single issue, it's geopolitical but at the same time that should not cloud our relationship with Germany because that is much more important. So the fundamental and a solitary issue of geopolitical dynamics and so we started the for example we're having five times India, Germany, intergovernmental consultations are taking place and they'll help India to give critical importance to long-standing commercial ties so this meeting took place and strategic partnership was emphasized trade technology cooperation climate change or of a continuing nature while the war was a temporary phenomenon and so the bilateral discussions on partnerships between the two countries went very well because the Germans also realized that it was important for them to continue this partnership because it is beneficial to both countries and they are a big training partner for us beneficial to them in that way and therefore we talked about Indo-Pacific where they have an interest because they are not part of the quad but Indo-Pacific they have been trying to basically because of their problems with China they have been working with us then strategic partnership including post-COVID recovery that is a major challenge at this time then there is an Indian diaspora also in Germany not very big and they assemble and Prime Minister Modi addressed them and he challenged them to come to India's help some tourists here and generally be supportive and they all promised and the indication given that Germany would invite India because Germany is going to chair the G7 meeting you know G7 are the richest industrialized countries in the world and there have been a very powerful force in the world of course after COVID they haven't had any exchanges it may be informal but there was no formal meeting and now they are having a meeting of G7 and we are not members of G7 but the host can invite us and therefore Germany has given an indication though earlier there was some indication that because of our Ukraine position we may not be invited to G7 but now they have agreed that they will invite us and the expectation is that the focus will be not on Ukraine alone and there will be other things to be discussed and India can make a contribution. As far as the India Nordic summit is concerned these are the most some of the most prosperous and peaceful nations in the world Denmark Finland Iceland Norway and Sweden so these countries are called Nordic countries and they have had very good relationship with us they are particularly interested in economic assistance to both the countries and there are lots of programs in India about the alleviation and developing projects and this has been going on they have not been very active in politics but the Ukraine war has brought war to their doorstep and so they have concerns and so they also welcomed a meeting with Prime Minister Modi and they said that discussed several things they are actually anxious to know what the power equations of the world would be because that is the big question mark what will happen to Putin and what will happen to Russia once the war is over but two views one it may be that the situation will become so bad that a world war might start and the other is that probably this will end soon and present constellation of countries may remain but if the war happens or a big change in alliances and so on there will be a good problem so they would like to know and they must have picked Mr Modi's brains as to what he thought the future would be so in the new world order what India would be able to do they were anxious to know and the discussions were quite good because even though they may have had concerns about India's position on Ukraine they did not press that beyond the point they concentrated on the operation between India and the Nordic countries rather than the war but they also were concerned about the fact that India was not cooperating in the sanctions because sanctions was the only thing that they are doing against Russia it is in their interest to see that sanctions continue and they are enforced so they must have tried as to focus on these things also when it comes up and much of the conversation on the subject may have been left to the US so they may not be actively campaigning for all this because of the new understanding between US and Europe many much of the conversation may take place from the US India so we do not know what the next meeting will be we have had a virtual summit between Prime Minister and President Biden so these issues we discussed at the Americans level and the other countries can work out their own relationship so in the reports from Germany indicated that they are really expecting a change in their attitude so but Mr. Modi in all these meetings stressed that the multifaceted relationship between India and Europe was much more fundamental that is the point that he made and commercial ties and strategic partnership etc so as I said imitation to G7 is a plus point and everything else business as usual that is the effort that he made and he must have made some impact so that was about Germany and then Modi countries he asked Mr. Modi asked Modi companies to invest in the blue economy you know what the blue economy is relating to the ocean that is Sagar Malak because all these countries or small countries with huge oceans around it and they are very good in maritime security and maritime development and so he suggested that they should come and then the Arctic region like the Antarctic region is an Arctic region which is now a kind of a shall we say inheritance of humanity which is left without any particular ownership of any particular country but there is an Arctic agreement under which all of us are able to and allowed to go and do research so India has already got an Arctic policy and the Prime Minister maintained that this Arctic policy was very much in keeping with the policy of the Nordic countries so that was identified as another new area of cooperation between India and the Nordic countries and then came France. France also was very important as I said Mr. Macron has just won an election which is a tough election he was he had to go to a second run and finally he won with a narrow majority and the right extremist groups are becoming stronger and stronger in France and so we do not know how long Mr. Macron will continue as President he has to sort out several things it's not going to be easy but luckily he has won the election and he is very friendly to India and so Mr. Modi thought that he must connect with him so that you know the business as usual we also have nuclear power operation France in fact France had agreed to set up some nuclear power stations in India after the nuclear deal but then because of the liability law he was not able to do so and also there was some criticism that these French nuclear stations were not very efficient and it's not being proved although 80% of their power, electric power is produced from nuclear reactors but in India there was some criticism that these are not proved but anyway it's going to come about the Americans wanted to give us six reactors that has not come about so eventually what we have the only foreign reactors we have are in Kudankuram which was set up by the Russians at the time of the Soviet Union goes back to Gorbachev and Rajiv Gandhi days and is still working some hitches here and there but it produces a certain amount of nuclear power which is very useful so the effort this was a kind of I call it a fence mending visit you know you have to mend your fences with your friends when you have any problem between us so there is a period when Mr Modi and the Indian leadership is engaged in mending the fence between India and Europe and that was his objective and also to accelerate the process of power operation in spite of whatever positions we have been taking on the so his trust again and again the importance of our being together even after the war and also how to cooperate in order to improve the situation and also to keep an eye on the international relations which way it is done so I'm sure President Macron must have been very anxious to hear what Mr Modi has to say about the situation and then the friends also they have a new number of new proposals in order for India and France to enhance its operation so by doing this in these three capitals dealing with several European countries he may have in a way succeeded in creating an impression of positive relationship and having explained why we did why we are trying to build a ruble arrangement and how these things are already old arrangements etc I think he has given them some hope that there will be mutuality and also mutual interest and there will be a business as usual if not better than as a result of his visit but some reports coming in today I don't know some of you may have read an article in the Hindu by a friend of mine Chanti Maria D'Souza she's a strategist thinker she's actually a specialist on Afghanistan but she's also working for some institutions in Germany and she happened to be in Germany during this period after her conversations with several Germans she wrote an article today in the Hindu saying that yes the visit was fine as far as it went but there is a certain amount of dissonance of the word she used certain dissonance that is lack of what shall we say harmony because when you have harmony you don't have dissonance you say when you play music music is okay but sometimes one instrument goes away from there or goes wrong or one musician goes to sleep or whatever happens then there will be a certain dissonance coming in and it just to be rectified then only the music can go on so in her view there is a certain dissonance because of India's positional effect at the same time people do realize in Germany that India and Germany have many things to do in common together in a new situation of India sorry US and China Cold War or US China Russia Cold War all these situations we have to be prepared for so Germany like France is anxious was anxious to do all this but in her opinion it will help matters if India shifted its position a little bit and that may take time and therefore what she's saying is that though and I can believe this they may not contest anything that we tell them and we may have they have gone along with all the projects that we had proposed earlier there must be some dissonance somewhere that we are not fully with them and that remains even after the visit and it'll take a little time for it to subside so new alliances are coming up Russia China alliance you know so there are several situations and depending on the end of the war there will be no new constellations new arrangements and India and Europe should stand together when only we can benefit from whatever new world geopolitical world that we see so on the one hand we have a little apprehension about India particularly about the conflict between authoritarianism and democracy we don't see it that way but they do see it that way we deal with Russia because it is authoritarian we are not interested in their internal politics but now there is a challenge to all that and so our best bet is to post at the war if we can and then people think that India is in a good position to mediate or help but India is not in a mood to do that because we are generally against mediation and arbitration etc we should be diplomacy and I know that's our position so we have been encouraging that but many people think that now that India is neutral maybe India is a country which can propose something but what can we propose we already proposed the ceasefire we have already proposed the humanitarian assistance we have already proposed stopping off refugees flows from Ukraine all this we have talked about but to give them a formula what can how can we give them a formula about nature how can you give them a formula about Russia wanting to get back the glory of the Soviet Union so these are things which we cannot and therefore that is not likely but there is expectation that India might be able to do something and if you are able to do something will be even better otherwise we have to wait out the war and see the situation is and then jump in and then all this you can see China is lurking and they are not taking a very active position on this but we know very clearly that they are on the side of Russia and also their ideas about what to do with Taiwan and if Ukraine was just an experiment as to how to deal with Taiwan because they have agreed to help each other just as China will help Russia to deal with Ukraine while Russia will help China to deal with Taiwan that's a much much bigger issue and that's another time when we may have to make up our mind as to where we understand so as far as the visit is concerned my assessment is that was very helpful it may get our relationship back with the European Union but behind it all is they are concerned about India's supporting and authoritarian regime they don't see India or Russia relations as an innocent you know political economic relationship but something which has resulted in some kind of dissatisfaction for them because they are not able to impose sanctions effectively but time heals and time heals as countries develop and develop mutual interests and that is what we have and that is what Prime Minister Modi stressed during his visit anyway I hope things are clear you understood the trust of what I said and this is very important from your examination perspective because any of these things can come up and so please keep reading newspapers and following these developments till the very first day of your examination or your clear examinations so nothing is unimportant particularly for those who are taking the glimpse because anything and everything in words like no big summit various cooperation projects and all that and come in because we don't know so it's important for you to follow these developments thank you