 We're going to talk about land, land and earth. And we will take a closer look at AIDS impact on land use. First in sub-Saharan Africa, the trends and patterns of land use change when international aid comes into the picture. Please welcome Efraim M. Konya, Senior Research Fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C. Welcome. The topic of my first slide is saying that sub-Saharan Africa is the future breadbasket. Can you believe me? But you know that that's where a lot of people are starving. Then how can this be true? If you read the headlines yesterday, the Prime Minister of Japan has something which is very similar to what my first slide's heading is saying. He said Africa is the center, the world center of growth. That's Abhi Anso and he said that yesterday. And I want to go back and justify this statement. The first one, you're saying that in the world, in the past 50 years, almost 1961 to about 2005, 77% of the agricultural production in the world has been coming from increase of yield. That the yield increase has been the determinant factor for 77% of the growth in food production. But the bad news is that that yield gap, the yield difference between the potential yield and the actual yield has been diminishing in developed countries. There is no room to get more food from yield increase rather from yield, I mean from production increase of crop and expansion. But in sub-Saharan Africa, the yield gap is very wide. So there is a big potential for increasing yield in sub-Saharan Africa to provide food not only to Africans but to the rest of the world. The second fact is that of the remaining, there are about 1.8 billion hectares that are remaining arable land that's remaining for expansion of area, 90% of this is coming from sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. And to prove this point, we have seen that what we have been calling land grabbing, where did it happen? 66% of the land grabbed by international companies and countries, it came from Africa. Proving the point that Africa is the bread basket of the future. There are many problems for us to be able to exploit the potential of sub-Saharan Africa to become the bread basket of the world in the future because there are so many challenges and that's the motivation behind this paper that what can be done to address those challenges so that we can exploit the potential that is lying in Africa. So the first question which is actually the major reason that we are looking here is that how is aid helping Africa, how is aid impacting crop land and agricultural productivity in Africa? Now the results that are shown here showing that I can just summarize the statement saying that aid has been going to areas where there has been crop land expansion and not intensification. And as you can see those three graphs, we can see that the areas that are showing a lot, the aid here as I did it, aid as percent of GDP itself and you see that this is where we are seeing a lot of money going in terms of the percentage of, as measured by the percentage of the agricultural GDP. Another bad thing is that when crop land expansion occurs in Africa, 90% of that is replacing the forest which is not a good thing. So crop land expansion is not a good thing but it's a good thing when it is done in a way which is not affecting the environment and they already presented the things about the forest and all that. So crop land expansion can be good but it can be very bad if it is replacing the forest because actually the forest and we are not talking about the forest being the benefit of the world but the benefit of the people who are by the forest. The people who can harvest the forest sustainably to feed their own kids are not carbon sequestration are the people who are around those forests they care more about feeding their kids than carbon sequestration and those benefits are the ones that we are talking about that if they replace the forest they actually have negative impact on themselves, something which is not a good thing. I want to give examples of two countries and this actually can tell us the problem, the magnitude of the problem and the impact of the problems. I'm taking DRC Congo and Botswana. Beginning with DRC Congo, DRC Congo accounts for 34% of the carbon stock in sub-Saharan Africa so it is well endowed with a lot of resources. 24% of the fresh water in Africa is in DRC Congo so the country is well endowed with a lot of resources. Botswana is a country of the rich. There is almost nothing. There is one common thing between those two countries. Both of those countries have a lot of mineral resources. I believe that all of you, 100% of you, have a cell phone. It's very likely some of the chips were made from minerals that we have harvested from DRC Congo. But if you look at the GDP of DRC Congo and the GDP of Botswana, those two countries are very different. The human development index, DRC Congo, had the lowest in the world. What on earth is going on? A country is endowed with all those resources but still the human development index is the lowest. But look at Botswana. Botswana is not a poor country. It's a middle income country. And that has happened only the 50 years ago. Before that, the country was also very poor. So what is determining the development in one country, which is very poor in terms of resources, but another country which is rich in resources but nothing is happening? And that's something which can really help us if we can be able to address that question. So we did, in this study, actually my slides are very few. I'm almost coming to the end of it. We did a study and looked at many aspects that are looking at affecting the crop land expansion. And we looked at them and we were using a lot of data that we had. One thing that we have been seeing is that investment in agricultural research and development is that it first increases crop land expansion, but then it decreases. My arrows here are wrong. They are supposed to be reversed on the first line. So we are seeing in this analysis that if you invest in agricultural research and development, the first thing on the reaction of the farmers when they have new seeds, which are very high yielding, they expand the area, but then there is a threshold which is reached and they start decreasing the area. And that's something which is very good because we see that there is an intersection, but at the same time there is expansion at the very beginning, but after that there is a decline, which is what we want. On international aid, the international aid is also having the same impact that at first, when international aid comes in, when you account for all the other factors that we have put into our analysis, it first increases the crop land expansion, but then after there is a threshold which is reached where it goes down. Something which is also good for aid that at the very beginning, if the aid is not that big, it does not have an impact which is gonna lead it to intensification of agriculture and the reduction in crop land area. And access to roads does something which is quite worrisome because there are two things which are happening that if you improve the roads, the access to roads, I know that two things are happening at the same time. There is agricultural intensification, but also there is crop land expansion. So both of them are happening in areas which they have very good market access. And that's something which is leading us to the other factor that can be very interesting. The population density, it's always the same case that we know from the environmental cruise net curve and the both European induced the sewer of intensification. That's something which we know very well. And the agricultural export is something which was quite interesting that agricultural export, as it increases, actually it reduces the crop land expansion. Something which we know very well that export crops, they are highly intensified that the farmers apply fertilizer, they use the improved seeds and all those. And this one is actually leading to the reduction of the crop land, something which is very good. Meaning that international trade is very important for us to address the problem of crop land expansion in the southern Africa. At the same time, it's a very important aspect which is determining crop agricultural intensification. So export is very good in that regard. Now, the other factor which is very interesting and which actually explains why we see such a big difference between Botswana and DLC Congo is that government effectiveness is something which is very, very important in the sense that governance is an important aspect and that's why we see a country which is well endowed with a lot of resources, nothing is happening because of governance is an important aspect. But in this study which we're looking at how the governance is affecting the crop land expansion is actually doing what one would not expect that it is actually leading to crop land expansion. And I fully understand that when we looked at the data in Africa, the government effectiveness, the level at which it is is very small. But we looked at some of the countries where the government effectiveness is very high. For example, Botswana and South Africa are the countries which have the highest government effectiveness and in those countries there is a crop land is reducing and something which is very good. So that's something which is very interesting. Another interesting thing is that in areas where the land tenure security is high, the crop land expansion is decreasing and that's something which is what we would expect. So land tenure is something which is very important and we had the population density and poverty we saw that and we saw that the conclusion was that in years where the poverty is very high and population density is very high, there is very, very rapid crop land expansion is something which is not a good one. So that's the end of my presentation. Thank you very much.