 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now Larry Pezzavento. Okay, looking good, Billy Ray feeling good, Louis. We're going to change strategy here a little bit folks and focus on what needs to be done instead of looking at that back in the footsie which we do for educational purposes. I posted both of the charts for the natural gas that we've been talking about. Folks, we mentioned if we went below 120, 190, that was not good. We're trading below that right now at 220. That sets up a price objective of around 210. That's $1,000. If you want to throw $1,000 away, stay in the position. I would not do that. Anyway, that's what I would be looking at here folks. This thing is failing. That's the one thing that pattern recognition will try to do for you because if the patterns work, they're going to work within a very, very short time frame and that's what your risk and that's what your advantage is. You know exactly how much you're risking and if the pattern fails, it's most probably, I mean highly probably going to the next ratio. In this case, you're looking at 210. I'll look at it again there. We've seen this happen many times. We went through this with Ruby with coffee. She bought it right and it wrote it all the way up to 116 and it's dropped 16 or 17 cents down from that level. When the patterns work, it's great. When they don't work, get out. Stand aside. We have Bill Meridian who is going to be on at the first break in about seven minutes. He's going to spend the whole time with us. He's got some really great stuff to talk about like he always does, so it'll be fun. Also folks, I'm not going to be here Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. These are going to be where I'm doing a marathon. I'm starting this afternoon around noon and I'm going to press the old pedal to the metal and get a lot of things done here in the next five days. I think I've learned more in the last five and a half weeks than I have in the last 10 years, so I'm really looking forward to something. There is something big getting ready to happen in these stock index these futures. It's going to be a big surprise. I don't know what's going to cause it, but there's a chance for a very, very, very substantial downdraft and I'm really looking forward to that and I've been focusing on how to trade those downdrafts and because many times, like on the gold, the market went straight up and I didn't chase it and I said I can't allow that to happen again. I've got to find a way to enter the market, even if it's not the way I'd like to, maybe buying on strength in markets that are really strong or selling on weakness in markets that are really weak and that's what I've been trying to do. As I was doing this research, I could see Mark Douglas standing behind me and telling me why don't you just buy when the pattern fails, why don't you just reverse and he sat there with me for 10 days and every time it reversed it made money. So maybe Mark's looking over me again so we'll have to keep in. Scaling in is another good way, you betcha and that's it, what you really want to be doing. Okay, oh Russ, I see your private message there. Russ, you would really be a big service to me, buddy. If you would send me a private, send it to my email Larry Pesavento at gmail.com with your comments, I would really appreciate it. I don't have any time today to answer you back early this morning here, but after the show I certainly do but if you do that I would certainly appreciate that. That would be very, very important. We are looking at some really interesting patterns today folks. One of them that we're looking at is the treasury bonds. If you notice the treasury bonds have broken pretty badly to the downside. We've been saying that for quite some time that this market looks like it wants to go a whole lot lower but we have to wait and see if that's the case. Also keep a very close eye on the euro folks. Remember we're down at that 111 area and we're coming into a weekend. So what that means is most probably we're going to be looking at a situation where we're going to have some type of a potential reversal over the weekend. And believe me here's one of those situations a reversal could be to the downside. So we want to sort of keep a close eye on that. That's I think what we think is very, very important when we look at some of these things. So that's pretty much it. I believe that Steve Roach summarized what I'm thinking about the gold. I believe we've made a significant top in gold. The open interest has told us that and both silver and gold and the price objectives were absolutely perfect. You know, we hit those numbers just like magic. So 14, we ever get about 1456. I'll be a buyer gold. Well, I shouldn't say that. But we'll keep a close eye on it for sure. Anyway, those are just a few of the things that we're following here this morning. And we want to watch those occurrences very closely mainly because of that US dollar. I'm going to be doing an extensive newsletter this weekend because we have so many things happening in the currency markets, the bond markets and in the stock market. So I'll have that done probably by Sunday afternoon and then also do the futures because we've got some really great patterns coming up in the futures markets for wheat, corn, beans and cattle and hogs and even in crude oil. So crude oil is going to be a real interesting one because Bill has some really good statistics today on that and I think it could be very, very interesting. But let's keep our powder dry here and on that natural gas, folks. You don't want to stand in front of that freight train to the downside. We've done that. I mean, well, we don't do that because we try to use stops. But just since we've been on the air here, it's dropped $100. And it's got another $900 on it. So I should sell one here just in Mark's, just for Mark, but I'm going to wait and see. Anyway, the number we're looking at in the crude is at $1207. That's down $1,200 from where it is right now. That's the 1.27 expansion and that'll come in spot on to the 78% level on the weekly chart. So that's in the future, Bob, that's where we're looking for. Don't look anything farther than that. So we should be able to do that without too much trouble at all. Okay, we'll have Bill on here in about five minutes, which will be a lot of fun. And if you have any questions, be sure to send them in or call in or drop us a line here at TFNN so we can see what is going on. Someone's asked a question about the bond market. Folks, I posted those long-term charts and bonds and notes so often that all we just had happen here talking about all this negative interest rates and stuff was nothing more than a 61% retracement on the long-term weekly chart. All you have to do is to look at the weekly chart on the long-term notes and you can see it was right up there at that 128 and we're trading 126 now. So let's sort of keep in mind that's what we're looking at. Anyway, we will... Oh, the YIN. The YIN, I have a YIN. The YIN, let's just give a quick look for our good friend, Mr. Marshall and we'll get this up here. Marshall, I have some bad news, bubba. Let me just... Here, I'll put the AI up for you today so you folks can take a quick look what we're looking at in the YIN because this might be related to the stock market too. But let's look at the YIN on a daily basis. You can see we're still heading up Marshall to the ABCD pattern and I think what we're seeing now is just a small correction here but I believe we're going to get to that 109.30 level without too much trouble so I would be waiting for that. That's a beautiful ABCD pattern coming in spot on at the 109.36. So I certainly hope that helps. Marshall, I do have some rather disturbing news here as they closed one of the Guadalajara's here in Houston. If you're not currently using the TAS Profile Scanner when looking at setting up your trading opportunities then your arsenal is short a mighty weapon. The TAS Profile Scanner is a standalone piece of software that instantly filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks, ETFs, commodity futures and forex. Heated by Steve Dahl, TAS understands that in today's technological world the use of top-flight software applications and technical analysis expertise is essential for successful trading in today's market. You also gain access to the webinar that Steve Dahl and Tom O'Brien just hosted the best way to use the TAS Profile Scanner to profit. This webinar archive is available for all subscribers immediately upon signing up. All new subscriptions also come with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Start your subscription by visiting the front page of TFNN.com today and you'll find the TAS Profile Scanner under the Services tab. TAS Profile Scanner will open up today. From the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating, Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market. Before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future, call Tiger Real Estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 or email us at tiger at TFNN.com That's 727-329-8322 call us today. Detailed on The Tire's Den or on the front page of TFNN.com Call now. Toe free. At 1-877-927-6648 internationally. At 727-873-7618 Okay, we're back folks, and I hope we have Bill Meridian from Cycles Research on the line. Bill, are you there? Well, we don't have Bill to go We've got to love the old technical capabilities of Mr. William Valentine We'll try to get him on here. No, he's supposed to be on now at 917. So let's try to call him now because he's got a lot of things to cover today. I posted that to you this morning, but evidently I missed it, Al, sorry. So try to get Bill on the line now if you could because he's got, you know, a whole PowerPoint presentation that I want you folks to see all of it because these are all cycle-related, all numbers and stuff, and the things that we really like to look at. So we'll try to get those things on. I will, I'm going to show you, well, I already showed you what he wants to talk about today. And, okay, Bill, are you there? I sure am. Oh, thanks for joining us, my friend. I really appreciate it. I've got your first chart up, the second chart looking at today's perspectives. Do you want to just go on to number three and get started there? Well, let me go to today's perspective first. You bet you. Go ahead. Oh, is bonds empty? I forgot to finish it. Today's, now I know why you wanted to skip it, Larry. Stocks likely to correct in August. The cycle's turning down as we'll see. Bonds, I think, will continue to rise moderately. Gold, I think, is likely to make a good move up in August. And oil is, in fact, selling my oil ETF at the close today. So let's go down to the first graph that's on page three. And that is the monthly standard and poor cycle. And let me just, I just got an email from a subscriber which I just answered. So let me explain. We use spectral analysis to extract all of the valid cycles out of the data. And then we run it through a buy-sell signal test. And those that are not profitable are dropped out. And what you see here is the result. Those are the cycles that make the money. And as you can see, there is a red sell signal here in the first week of August, which is next week. But the market was just at new all-time highs just a couple of weeks ago. So it's no major sell signal. So let's go to the next graph, which is the advanced decline line. And I, as one of my key market indicators, I take the 10-day moving average of this, and I follow that. And that's one of the best short term oscillators because if you think about it, it's stocks moving up that make a bull market. It's not a stock market. It is a market of stocks. And if most of them are going up, you have a bull market. Now, that cycle downturn, there should be some signs, which I will go here. These are just a few of them on page five. These are just a few of the gathering storm clouds, as I call them. You look internally, and if you see a cycle peak coming, you ask yourself what's happening underneath the surface of the market. What are the numbers showing you? What is sentiment? So first of all, less stocks are participating in the uptrend. Second, more stocks are on the new highs list, but the new lows list is also expanding for the first time since October. This is called a dispersion index. And as far as I know, the first person to point it out was Norman Fosback in his book Stock Market Logic way back in 1974. Today, they've been worked on a bit more. One of them is known as the Hindenburg Omen. The other one is the Titanic indicator. They both have the same underlying premise. And on last Thursday, in other words, one week ago yesterday, the Hindenburg Omen cell signal was triggered on both the big board and the NASDAQ exchanges. Now, the market has been lower. After this has occurred, the market has been lower one to two months later, about 75% of the time. One to two months later would take you to what? Mid-August or early September, or maybe mid-September. Now, momentum measures such as the McClellan Oscillator are starting to roll over. And the Investors Intelligence Survey of newsletter writers have a full ratio in the top 5% of all readings in the past 30 years. Such high readings are bearish. Too many people have become bullish. And let me give you the rest of them. Yes, there is a second page. Now, depending on the earnings for S&P 500 companies, they're going to be lower than they were in the same quarter last year. If the market is rising based on earnings per share expectations, this is a negative, especially if it occurs in Q2. Because you have the seasonal weakness, August, September, October, right in front of us. And if you saw it yesterday, I was short, both Ford and Tesla, both automobile companies, the one fell 7% and the other one 13%. And now this morning it's coming out that all the European carmakers aren't making any money. And the Sands profits down 99% according to Bloomberg this morning. So it's something is a chill wind is hitting the auto stocks. So that's a negative fundamentally. And here's a curious one. The smallest of options traders, these are guys who are usually wrong, placed a record bet on a stock decline in late May and early June, a strategy that was incorrect. Last week they spent 40% of their volume of their money on speculative call options. That's one of the most leveraged bets since 2000. And hedge funds, and I noticed this, you know, you know how much the stock market is up this year. Since January 1st, the hedge funds are up 7%. How can you lag the market like that? In the last month or two, they've drastically ramped up their holdings of stocks. And when you make a shift like that very quickly after being bearish for so long, to me that is not a positive sign. So this is just, let's say four and three, that's just seven indications. I could give you more, but I think that's enough that the market is in need of arrest. And for those of you who have heard these broadcasts from me before, I'm expecting the market to be higher by January 1st. So it is not any reason to run out and sell the whole portfolio. But if you have stocks you were thinking of unloading because you don't like them, now would be a good time. And if you wanted to buy, add to your portfolio the end of August, probably the second half would probably be the time to do it. So that is how the stock market looks at the moment. So let us, can we go down one to the bond cycle? You bet you, we're ready to go. It's really good stuff. Thank you so much, Bill. I really, really appreciate this. There you go. We're at the Treasury notes right now. Monthly bond cycle. This is the U.S. 10-year note. That is its cycle. And you'll notice it is going up into that is early November, late October around Halloween. So the JGB cycle, which is the Japanese government bond, looks the same. The Bund, which is the German bond, looks the same. So you have the principle of reinforcement. And I'd like to really drive that home with these next slides. If you go down one, this is, this was, oh, this is the one where I couldn't get a heading to stick for some reason. That is the U.S. 10-year note. That is the annual histogram. In other words, July and August are very strong. Well, if anybody asks you, when should I buy, when should I buy bonds? If you say June and sell them in late August, you're going to be right most of the time. The histogram you're looking at is calculated in the following way. We take the percentage of times that the U.S. 10-year note has been up and multiply it times the percentage increase. So in other words, if it's up 70% of the time, 2%, 0.7 times 2% is 1.4%. That is what you're seeing. We're going to pay a few bills here. Stay with us, Bill. Yeah, stay with us. We'll be right back with Bill. We got you for the whole half hour, buddy, so we've got plenty of time. 877-927-6648 The key markets that he is watching during the day. This will be up to the date active trading information that will help you in your daily trading. In Larry's first week alone, he sent out 25 charts, 6 videos, and a full report to his subscribers in just one week. If you're a technical trader that uses patterns and retracements to trade, then Larry's service Fibonacci 24-7 is something that you must try. Right now, new subscribers can get a full 30-day money-back guarantee. With nothing to risk, sign up now to Larry Pezzavento's Fibonacci 24-7 by visiting the front page of TFNN.com under Trading Newsletters. The path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter, and if you're looking for active trading ideas, then now's a perfect time for a 30-day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service. David uses his years of trading experience to offer his subscribers his trading ideas each morning in his path of least resistance newsletter. Using a combination of equity trades along with options, David keeps his subscribers up to date with all pertinent market information with intraday afternoon updates when warranted. Don't miss out on this great chance to get a 30-day free trial to David's daily newsletter, the path of least resistance, with no obligation to pay anything. 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The Art of Timing the Trade Charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. And right now, we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Okay, we're back, folks. We're talking with Bill Meridian, Cycles Research. Bill, I believe we're on chart number nine. We are on, well, we just looked at eight, which is the U.S., the U.S. 10-year note, and its seasonality. And we noticed that July and August are very strong. So let's go down one to, this is the JGB annual cycle. Does this look familiar? Look at July and August, and that's the Japanese bond. And now go down one more. And that is the German bond. Look at July and August. So it is not in your best interest to go short bonds in June through September because you're running uphill. You're eating soup with a fork. You're running up the down escalator. You're swimming up a waterfall. The trend is against you. And you notice the monthly cycle. That was the very first one we looked at back three or four slides ago. So in other words, the static cycle, the seasonal cycle is bullish, and the dynamic cycle extracted from all the current most profitable cycles. They both point up. So it's your choice of up and up. So that's why I'm not advising anyone to sell bonds, especially not to short them right now. So that is, that is how I come to the conclusion that August is probably going to be a pretty good month for bonds. So now what I find most interesting is gold. Now, if you might recall that little circle, that is, you got it? Yep. Let me get the next one up here. I had a little small technical problem here. I had an echo I had to fix. Hold on a second. We're going to be looking at this one right here. This one in the gold now? Yeah, the gold correction has been flat. Yeah, it sure has. There we go. So on that date, this was in Forbes too. I wrote a piece saying that that would probably be, that's the 2056 would be the high day it was. But look at that correction hasn't been much of a correction. Now, Dow, Charles Dow would say a flat market can be a correction, or Ralph Elliott would be called this type of correction a flat. And so that has been the correction. So now let's look at the seasonality for gold next. And you tell me, what are the strong months? July, August, September. And I know the numbers here. August gold is up 60% of the time in September 61. But the percentage increase, because we're multiplying 0.61 times the increase in all past September's back to 1969. Look at that. That is the single most profitable month to hold gold. And so, number one, the downturning weekly and monthly cycle. Well, you remember June, Larry, the two cycles turned up in tandem during June. And if you're looking here is June a strong month. No, but it rallied anyway because the dynamic cycles pulled it up. July is a somewhat stronger month, but not great. The two cycles turned down. So what did we get what we saw on the previous slide, which is a flat. Now we're going into August and September. And let's look at the cycles right now. Let's go to 13. And that is the weekly gold cycle. And look where the low is right here in early August next week. And by the way, the average low for gold in any year is August 6th or August 8th. If you're in a bull market. That is the weekly cycle. So now we've got the seasonal cycles. We have August, September up. We've got the weekly cycle up. Let's go to the next page and see the monthly cycle. The monthly cycle bottoms right around the average low for any year, but bottoms around August 10th. So I'm going to be adding the is it. And now I forgot to assemble the double long gold ETF to the portfolio for the month of August and probably sometime into September. Now that's all great. But what is the technical picture for gold? Let's go to the next slide and get the technical picture. Look at that. That is a monthly chart. That is a major breakout. I did not think that was going to occur. And if you took the title off and you took the dates off of the bottom and you asked any technical analyst, is this bullish or bearish? They're going to say bullish. You have a symmetrical triangle, which in other words are rising highs and lows and a flat top. And you break out above that the measuring formula is you take the low, which is about 1050 and you measure up to the high, which is about 1350. That's a difference of 300 points. And you add that to the point of breakout, which is around, let's say it's 1350. That counts up to 1650 to 1700, which takes you up close to the old highs. So however you look at gold, it looks bearish bullish right here. The only thing that's bearish is that those commercial hedges are shorting it and they're usually right. But I'm going to have to go with what I've shown you here because I think the weight of the cycle and the technical evidence is on the side of gold bulls right now. So any questions about gold? Well, that's just really splendid. Not just splendid. It's spectacular work. I really like that last one of that breakout that really shows you. But I didn't realize that the possibility or the probabilities of gold with that positive August is really, really important. Wow. I want to add in one other thing for the planetary fans out there. If you remember the last time I was on, I showed in June, there was Jupiter Square Neptune in June. And when they're 90 degrees apart, gold and oil usually rally. Well, that effect lasts about a month. So that was offsetting it and it applies to both gold and oil. Let's take a look at oil next. That is the oil monthly cycle and note note where the peak was. This cycle was run at the beginning of the year and it caught that peak within a couple of days within a week. And it still points down and it points down through the year. I'm giving you a very long term view of this. And what happened in June, that rally that you see from June that just peaked in the early July. That was Jupiter Square Neptune. So in other words, the software only uses spectral analysis. It doesn't use any planets. The planets have to be overlaid. And the overlay I showed it to you last time I was here. And that effect lasts about 30 days. So if you take 30, maybe 40 days, that has expired over the last week or two. So the effect of Jupiter Square Neptune, which juiced oil up so much is now dissipating. And let's go down to the weekly cycle down here. Now the weekly cycle, you'll notice a little peak here in early August. So that is sort of that's next week. So if the monthly cycle points down, if the bullish effect that had buoyed oil up is dissipating and expiring. And this is turning down in this period here in beginning around August 2nd or 3rd, both the monthly and the weekly cycles will point down with nothing holding it up. So I am closing out. I just sent a letter to subscribers yesterday that I'm going to be selling the double long oil ETF in which we have a scant profit at this point. I'll be selling that out. Now here is the monthly expected return. And you'll notice August, so this should cushion the decline a little bit, but look where we're going. Look at October and November. So from this point forward, if you see any cell signals of oil rallies up, hits a resistance level, you know to short it. Because the monthly cycle, I just showed it to you, it's going down through to the end of the year and look at where we are on the seasonality. And this dovetails with... We'll be right back with Bill Meridian, Cycles Research, Vienna, Austria. If you are in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the Tiger First mortgage program may work for you. The security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Tax Act of 2018 set up tax-free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits, which makes these lots valuable. The investment is anywhere from $30,000 to $75,000. The interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis. According to bankrate.com, the best rate for a four-year CD in the country as of February 20th is 3.1%. A $50,000 investment at a normal four-year CD rate of 3.1% would give you income of $1,550 per year or $6,200 over the four-year period. That same $50,000 investment in the Tiger First mortgage program would give you $3,500 per year or $14,000 over the four years. What should you prefer, $6,200 or $14,000 of interest on your investment? If you'd like more information about the Tiger First mortgage program, you can call me at 877-518-9190. That's 877-518-9190. Tom O'Brien published the 900th issue of his weekly newsletter, The Gold Report, on July 22nd. It's amazing he started The Gold Report more than 17 years ago when Gold was trading at only $252. To celebrate, we're having a special Tiger Dollar sale. Right now, you can spend only $495 and will give you $200 extra Tiger Dollars, so you'll end up with $695 Tiger Dollars, which is the yearly price of The Gold Report. Tiger Dollars can be used for any TFNN newsletter or service and this offer is open to new and current subscribers. With Gold making six-year highs and Gold mining equities trading higher, this is a great time to sign up for The Gold Report at a dramatic savings. For all the details, visit the front page of TFNN.com. This deal ends July 31st, so don't miss out. Get your Tiger Dollars and sign up today for The Gold Report 900th issue sale. Bill, the S&P 500 continue to climb for bold trades on U.S. large cap stocks in either direction trade SPXL, SPUU or SPXS, directions daily S&P 500, bull and bear, leveraged ETFs, direction leveraged ETFs. An investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges and expenses before investing, a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus, call 866-476-7523 or visit directioninvestments.com. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the fund is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor for side fund services, LLC. The Bull Bear, binary option hour, next on TFNN. Okay, Bill, Meridian Cycles Research. Bill, we have a question from two of our listeners. What is the double long for gold and the double short for the oil and the ETF? Could you give us those symbols? Oh, I do. In fact, I was just closing positions before you came back from the air. Let me give those to you. Let me make sure I have them right. The double short oil is SCO. That's double short. The double long is UCO. Now, for gold, if you want to go long gold with no multiplier, just on a one-for-one basis, it's GLD, which is very easy to remember. Sure. And if you want to be double long the gold, it is UGL. Great, that's good. And those are very heavily traded, correct? Let me see. You see the UGL, average volume, 95,000. And the oil, the GLD is 8.6 million a day. And I can give you the UCO, which is long oil, 3.6 million a day. And the short oil is 2.4 million a day. Oh, that's huge volume. So we're in good shape there. Bill, could we take a minute and talk about this panic cycle that you're going to show us today? Yeah, well, the panic cycle, as I've explained before, I was on Wall Street as an analyst from age 23 to 40. And when I was 40, I got hired by Abu Dhabi and I was a fund manager strategist. I was on the currency hedging committee. And everybody in the universe came to our door and did presentations. And as I said before, it was one presentation in the European department. The guy sitting in front of me stood up and he turned and he looked at me at the end. He says, Bill, you are looking unimpressed. You are acting unimpressed. And I said, Ahmed, this is not an act. I said, you know, most of these, you know, as I was hired as a junior analyst at the Valley Line Investment Survey in New York in the old days, they said, your job is to make an educated guess. Well, that didn't really sit with me very well. There's got to be a better way to do things. And so, you know, people commit and say, well, you can't really predict the future. Well, if you don't make any effort, of course you can't. And, you know, who knows when, who knew that panic was going to occur in 2007, 2008? Well, myself and some other astrologers also due to the Saturn Neptune opposition. The panic cycle was created. I went back to the year 1600 and I set up a form on the PC of month by month 1600 to the present. And I went through my entire library, charts, graphs, and I marked a regular month as a one and a panic month as a two. Now, needless to say, by far and away, most months are regular months. They get a one. It's a binary language. But, you know, I came up with panic, even a panic in the Thai bot. And remember when they had the Thai monetary crisis? It was a short time. It was only like three or four months, but those all got twos. And most of the period in the 30s got twos because there was a very long protracted panic into depression. So that's the database. And I use regular spectral analysis to pull the cycle out. And as you can see, if you look up at the top, cycles plotted 8.54. The 8.54 month cycle at the time I ran this was the strongest. Second was 15.5 months and on down. The longest one being about 67 months, which is about five years. So you'll note it bottomed in September 2018 and notice where it tops September 2020. Well, most years ending in zero, years ending in zero have the worst possible returns for equities, according to the decennial pattern that was developed by Edgar Lawrence Smith at Ameritrust Bank in Cleveland way back in the 30s. And so, and most stock market lows have been in the year ending into two. So if you want to get into instant stock market forecasting, the odds will be on your side. If you say the market is going to top in a year ending in zero and bottom in year ending in two, you'll go back and look at 2000, 2002. And so that's one indication. There are a number of other ones that I have spoken about on your show. And since I've created this index, it has successfully it rose to a moderate level like where it is September 2020. It rose to a moderate level and then it dropped during the Greek crisis. So I told clients and people who were calling me, is this going to get worse? The answer was no. The cycle has peaked at a low level and now it turns down. It also the crisis in Cyprus. It was only one month off on picking up that. So a low level means that people feel comfortable. The news could be bad, but they're not going to panic. In September 2020, it indicates that anxiety will be at a very high level. And it may just be that everything will be up and people will look down and say, wait a minute, is this stock I'm holding really worth 30 or 40 times earnings? Or is this a gold that I bought? And then they start to panic. So that's what it is. And if I went back and I back-tested this, the panics that occurred in the 20s and 30s, you might be wondering, what did this graph show? Well, it showed readings up around 3.0. And if you look at this September 2020, it doesn't even come up to 2.0, just to give you an idea of magnitude. So I think 2020 to 2022 will be like 1980 to 1982 when Reagan took over. I think they may have to tighten a lot of the screws up and stop. We live in a credit-based economy. And as Jerry Geithner, Jeremy is his name guy, is Timothy Geithner, said when he left as Treasury Secretary under the previous administration, he said, the wire system is set up, this credit system, we're just setting up for the next crisis. And he's correct. I agree with him because it's based on credit. And credit, psychology, if people get frightened to start to pull back, that cascades down into a panic, into a deflation. And so I think that's what we're up against. I don't think the economy is going to turn down that much. I think it's going to be a bear market and paper securities. And by the way, the real estate cycle is an excellent book. And I'm going to wheel it around and make sure I get the title right because it's over here in the library. It is called The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking by my friend in London, Phil Anderson. The first two thirds of the book is about credit cycles, which we all know about. But the last third is about the real estate cycle, which runs 18 years. And it works this way. Seven years of moderate growth, seven years of accelerating growth, because people think, well, gee, real estate prices haven't fallen much in seven years. Let's pile in. And then it starts to accelerate. And then it peaks and you have four years of crisis. And Phil goes through that in the book, seven, seven and four. And he and I both concluded that the last low was around 2010. I bought my home in New Jersey in 2012 outside of Princeton. I paid an unbelievably low price for it. Now at seven to 2010, you come up with 2017, 18. So this is where real estate prices should start accelerating. And they should top in 2023. So it could be that real estate doesn't suffer much from this panic. It may just be real estate prices are flat. So I think the brunt of this downturn will be in equities and stocks. I don't think it'll be so much in commodities. What it means is it's the reverse of that old situation that I get a laugh with. If you want to know how inflation works or credit multiplies in the banking system, just take your lady to the shopping center and give her two to three, four, $5,000 and come back about six hours later. This is the reverse of that where people will panic and they just say, hey, you know, I'm overextended. I have too much real estate and they start to pull back. Bill, stay with us. We've got four questions if you don't mind. Not a month. I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best in everything you do in life. It's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share. If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money, let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets. I'm Steve Rhodes, author of Mastery Probability. 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Later Basil found the computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhance the degree of accuracy in calling price turns as well as market trend calls. Thus was born the Chapman Wave sequence. Using the Chapman Wave methodology along with other indicators, Basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter. Right now you can get a two week free trial to the opening call Basil's daily trading newsletter by visiting the front page of TFNN.com. Cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing. Get your two week free trial to Basil's newsletter of the opening call today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Okay we're back folks. We're talking with Bill Meridian from Cycles Research. Bill we have a question from one of our listeners about Bitcoin. Do you have an opinion on Bitcoin or blockchain technology? Well blockchain technology, yeah. I met with New York University, my alma mater, their expert on blockchain. I'm trying to think of his name. Professor Solonso, I might come up with it in a minute. But blockchain I think is going to first of all crypto currencies I just don't look at. Because to me it's like a gold rush and I'm not sure whether it's fool's gold or real gold. And so I just don't spend any time on it because I don't see any way to make money. There's not enough price data for me to do any of my work. So anyway the professor's opinion is that a lot of transactions which now require middle people are going to disappear. He said, if you're sending your kid to school to get an education, have him study managing technology people. He said, because there'll be people that have to monitor blockchain and work with it. And if you want to make money, become a manager of those people. But he said a lot of legal, real estate, a lot of commercial transactions are going to be handled peer to peer. And you will eliminate this person. That's how secure blockchain is. And he told, he went through the numbers of the Fortune 100 companies that he consults to and there's some enormous amount of resources being poured into this. Because for them it's lower costs. So yeah, blockchain is a big future. Cryptocurrencies is like something, can I bring up something from the last show Larry? Yes please do. The Cannabis Hemp Expo, a Javits Center in New York. I told you those of you who don't know, my two dear friends run it. So I get a free pass every year. The one in New York has a nice boat ride on Friday night around the island of Manhattan. Anyway, there were 35% more exhibitors this year than last year. What does that tell you? And last year there were small legal and accounting firms. One guy was selling safes. He said most banks wouldn't accept profits in the marijuana business. So he's selling home safes. And this time he's selling some recognizable names from the legal and accounting industry. And now there's a well-known, there's a Sorterra Wellness in Atlanta. Three executives have left Kellogg to join them. What does that tell you? Wow. Bill, thanks for joining us buddy. Be safe and hope to see you soon. Thank you. Bill Meridian, Cycles Research, Vienna, Austria.