 Good morning Tuesday the 11th of May. Hope you're doing well and quite a few things for me to get you up to speed on Starting off with the lower clothes on Wall Street last night And as we saw some heavy-selling pressure in the tech space once again, which saw the nasdaq 100 closed down around 2.6 percent Comparative to losses of just point 1% in the Dow and 1% in the S&P 500 So we'll have a look at that. We'll also then have a look at oil prices and update on the colonial pipeline We've got vaccine updates over Novavax and also a quick look at the confirmation of the Lockdown roadmap as outlined by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson that came after Sterling currency saw a really strong performance yesterday And then we'll have a look across the charts and talk about what's coming out for the day ahead as well so just going straight into how the charts look this morning and following on from the losses from yesterday and Index futures saw some additional selling pressure in the late overnight session However, we'll look over the lights of the nasdaq some quite nice technical Support areas coming in here at the lower bound and certainly the nasdaq has acted as a bit of a front runner for some of the Consequent movement in these US indices But before I get into the charts just kind of summarizing a few things of what contributed to yesterday's sell-off and Actuality there wasn't too much of a great deal of follow-through movement in other assets like Yields gold and to a certain extent FX it was quite a concentrated move in equities when the market started to break down yesterday and Certainly whenever you start to see tech stocks weaken it typically in this current environment is being tied to rising inflation expectations and a lot of that is coming with Quality prices rising which we've seen of course over recent weeks and months and copper jumped to a record yesterday While iron ore futures surged more than 10% Again to kind of build up of the reopening Particularly coming out of the Far East as well It's just bolstering some of those base metal prices the New York Fang plus index So this is when you start talking about the bigger kind of tech names in America all as well Including like the likes of Baidu and Netflix guys like that That was actually down as much as 3.4 percent yesterday. So really did see some selling pressure there Inflation expectations as measured by treasury inflation protecting securities over the coming five years So this is something the markets look at in terms of this monitoring of forward-looking inflation expectations That actually rose to 2.73 percent on Monday And that is a 10-year high and it was contributing factor I guess why some people are getting a little bit apprehensive about inflation again And of course timing's wise this comes ahead of tomorrow's midweek US CPI report Which is expected to see a really sharp meaningful uptick I think the market will have to look through the year-in-year Which could be as high as 4% Given the fact that that's because of the base effects particularly how low we were back in April of 2020 You remember just coming into the midst of the the negative oil price we had at the time 12 months ago the other thing of course of Why I think Equities are seeing a bit of a rotational effect, but T notes are relatively sanguine in terms of reaction is the idea the Fed are kind of holding true to the to the line at the moment and you know if you're just looking at Some of the commentary that was coming out last night and there were a number of Fed speakers But I'm only going to focus on the voters because that's really the ones that that matter and this is Charlie Evans And he said last night that the Federal Reserve officials would like to see higher inflation more wage growth and Several months several months of strong employment gains averaging 1 million jobs Added before they would consider adjusting monetary policy in addition You also had Mary Daly another Fed voter spoke last night reiterated that we are a long way from home And there's not yet time to talk nor think about tapering So once again, I think the Fed Continue to reinforce that stance and they almost Solidify that with these speeches at the time when the market like yesterday and the equity sees a little bit The weight come in on some of the renewed focus on inflation expectation rising as measured by tips as we saw Over the over the coming five years. So for me, I do not see the Fed reacting to some of the markets kind of reaction effect to the inflation at this point. I think it's more down to The emphasis because of the inflation reading we're going to get this week It's kind of brought it back into the forefront and as we saw last week I think equity markets at the moment at these elevated record levels are just finding a little bit tough to make Decision at the moment on where we need to go next and of course the S&P We did have that bump off the payrolls. Obviously that poor figure Reinforcing the Fed stance did knock us up to record-high territory and so there was room for as well I think for a little bit of a profit-taking on those short-term longs That's I got a couple of charts then on that matter because yesterday Obviously we saw some some decent downside and I'm going to start off with the NASDAQ 100 because there's quite a nice Technical setup here on the NASDAQ. I'll just adjust my chart Excuse me. Let's move it down to here. I'm going to start off with Let me just shrink this chart. I'm looking at a 120-minute candlestick here. I know it's a little Messy to see but there's a couple of indicators I can talk you through here And so this is the ramp up that we've had in the NASDAQ since the 25th of March Up to the record high on the 29th in looking at NASDAQ 100 futures here that we saw on the 29th of april Taking a fib retracement of that move the 618 retracement and on the daily pivots the s1 And that rectangle horizontal from the resistance Through the 22nd 23rd of march and then the 31st before the eventual breakout on the 1st of april All coalesce on this same area 13158 looking on the 120 chart here and you can see the market given the asia pack followed through Asia was also negative overnight a little bit of added weight more evident in the nikke After japanese governors warned and the nationwide state of emergency cannot be ruled out Amid a lot of japanese earnings as well But we bounced quite nicely at that technical point and that technical point is also further validated by the 100 dma line Here's a lot of people looking at on the higher time frame And that in itself again just covering that same technical area of what was resistance through Mid to late february also held up in mid march and turn support in early april before then the push back up to Record high territory. So where we close here on the daily is really important. We've had a little Flurry of price activity to try and move below there But it's failed to sustain and 100 dma holding up at the moment So that level with these technical Areas here on that fib retracement from that Load to high with the daily s1 and that previous area of support resistance This will be a key area to watch today It'll be interesting to see whether or not given quite an aggressive down day Do we get some buyers come in and this market starts to lift From this point point on another chart just briefly to have a look at Because when you look at the heat map yesterday You can see just how concentrated the sell-off was in the major tech names So you like that amazon down three facebook down four apple down two and a half You can see here tesla was down six point four four percent And there's a couple of charts i was sharing with the community about tesla yesterday I think on a few different time frames tech tesla looks a little bit interesting here If you are looking at that single stock and so If i just bring over the chart of tesla Not not too much fuss about here Kathy woods ark invest fund starts to sell that pretty much defined the peak on the 14th of april But that 14th of april level was pretty good from a technical standpoint anyway Just encapsulating so that price movement seen at the beginning of the year And for one kathy's not having too much of a good time at the moment whilst equities Particularly the set off is focused on the tech space But go back to tesla if you go back to the trend line starting from the summer of august the 11th of 2020 This trend line has been really nicely respected As we've gone through october november and also early march And we just closed proximity to testing that at the close yesterday So that's something i'm keeping an eye on at the moment as well If you look at the on a shorter term chart yesterday it did break down in price And so that would be a key area also to watch and you know if we if it coincides with a bit of a nasdaq bounce on those levels Be interested to see whether we get a corresponding move there after a significant down day for for tesla shares as well Okay A few other things to to speak of for one as a headline This is something to be aware of and just getting up to speed our bob gasoline futures pretty much reversed the entire move See on sunday night and this comes after colonial pipeline sees that coming back up in the coming days So they see services mostly restored by the end of this week And so if we just look at the chart here Of wti crude there's a few things. I just wanted to show you as well First of all, let's have a look at our bob gasoline You can see this was the gap up that we had on sunday night the recommencement of trade And you can see we had already really taken back that move On confirmation of that colonial situation here and we tried pretty much scratch If you take the current price from where we closed on friday So that that kind of shipper sales so to speak on on that issue or potential issue And on a technical point of view, so I think I am watching here again on the trend line going back to April march, excuse me, april 27th retest at the beginning of may again Last week on friday had a brief momentary break of that but it's held up really nicely and This morning and that also coincides with kind of nice technical area here You can see despite that extension on the wick and the breakout the price closing and holding above this key level And you can see here going back to late april The response and support going on the early hours of On tuesday last week And then also on that end of last week. And so that's been quite a nice respect at that level. So also here The trend line working quite nicely this morning any further push back up Probably be looking up to target. You've got pivot seen just above then the 65 dollar handle really marked that that kind of upside area Of resistance as you can see here In yesterday evening session and also was a double bottom From monday's trade in the overnight asia pack session in the european morning on the test As you can see over here The other thing was sterling while we're looking at the chart sterling obviously was just phenomenal ride yesterday Bit of a short-term breakout here just quite zoomed in on the price activity from This is the overnight asia pack session Things were just kind of squeezing in and we've just broken out there Hence the little run down here to the range low retesting the overnight asia pack below But obviously on on the 90 minute a bit more evident to see just the breakout and strength that we had in sterling yesterday And even more so on the daily you can see that Colored rectangle there on the the break up that we printed and on the daily chart. We've got as high as 141 59 And obviously multi Month highs here. Well, I should say multi month. I should say we're going back to where we were in beginning of feb but also Any test on the upside of that levels would put us back to levels not seen since 2018 there So really strong day for the pound And obviously the the whole thing about scotland's main independence party An outright Failing to get really an outright majority strengthening the grip of the conservatives As well in addition to the local elections and also confirmation of the roadmap, of course And from boris johnson yesterday. So thankfully touch wood Everything remains on track for the time being so further loosening now before the bigger one then comes Towards mid to late june So what can you do if you did want to check out this just for your personal sake as well as For what's going on more more specifically then you can just go on my twitter account You can see this graphic But people can meet outdoors in groups of up to 30 now six people or two households can meet indoors Holidays are broadly allowed within traffic light systems overnight stage with people outside your household Indoor dining these sorts of things so quite a significant Loosening of the restrictions now has been Confirmed and of course then in step the covet alert level now decreasing to level three so gradual relaxation of restrictions and social distancing measures And all coming at mid as well not only a fairly suppressed covid situation, but vaccine rollout still kind of Tracking along at this point in time obviously the the color combination here the blue or the teal color is the first dose The orange color second doses so given that Supply bottleneck that we've had from AstraZeneca over the last several weeks It's been being much more concentrated as we know in in getting the second doses underway And so you've had quite a nice steep pickup in people getting fully vaccinated But that should start to shift as we get towards the latter part of may and june And we should start to see further pickups then in first doses as well as As further inoculation of the population continues and obviously the uk one of the front runners in that regard in above 50% at this point in time So just a quick run through of some other points to be aware of China overnight we did have The cpi and ppi numbers the ppi probably in the more the focus point year on year 6.8% against expected 6.5 In fact, it was the fastest pickup pace since 2017 Yet the cpi 0.9 below the expected 1% So definitely still reflective Of these kind of price pressures coming at the the speed of trying to keep up with demand at the moment And this this is again is in in an interesting one from inflation perspective because then the pass on cost down the line To purchaser and then onto the consumer, which is what's fueling some of these inflation fears at the moment The domestic consumer side though is much weaker in china And yesterday one of the things that we saw because of the weakness in the dollar post payrolls Was a multi-month high in the chinese yuan Which does get people a little bit nervous about state intervention to weaken their currency And what they might do with policy But you would think then from an overall policy perspective The the central bank of china likely to stand put at this point given the disconnect that we're seeing I guess with the ppi pressure is it going to be transitory to that respect? But unless you saw something much more encouraging on the consumer price level Then there's no need to really be adjusting policy at this point in view is probably the most appropriate stance Talking of Vaccines and and and covid there's a few things to cover here first of all Quick look at the this is looking at the us and the uk isreal Just looking at the us one here and you can see we've had a little dip here And this is a seven-day rolling average of new cases in the states And new coronavirus Infections in the u.s. Have fallen to the lowest level as you can see here in 11 months But vaccination rates will also continue to wane from their quickest pace from a month ago To give you context of numbers The u.s reports the daily average of 2.1 million new doses administered in the last seven days That was from a peak of around 3.4 million in mid April so that is something i'd just be keeping a half an eye on at the moment But again this situation though in covid cases means that the further the reopening will continue And although the jobs report was pretty dire on friday The point being is that it job situation is going to pick up most likely going forward The other thing from a vaccine point of view Was a couple things Pfizer and biotech covid 19 vaccine was being cleared now for use in younger teens So we're talking about the ages 12 to 15 in the u.s And that paves the way for mass vaccination in middle and high school students before the start of summer camps and the next school year And then separately another drug is novavax They've pushed its timeline and will apply for authorization of its vaccine in uk u.s in europe in q3 When they were previously looking at q2 And the reason is because the company is struggling to quickly collate the data required For that submission process to take place Now what is the impact of a delay in novavax doesn't have any implications? Well, the us and uk are not Relying on the novavax job jab for immuno immunizing their populations Because orders are being fulfilled from those other drug makers like astrazeneca and Pfizer and maderno for example And that pretty much meets their needs But if authorized novavax's drug The protein based vaccine would boost the global supply of jabs and benefit developing countries Especially because of the fact of its storage can be easily stored in a refrigerator It doesn't need these ultra cool temperatures like the likes of Pfizer and maderno and so on And so for the global situation and solution to covet on that mass level Particularly in those emerging markets, which have been the ones struggling such as like in india The novavax one is quite a key Player So not so much of the western world So probably not going to have too much of a net effect in the near term as far as global financial markets are concerned But as we know, there is a kind of timing disconnect between what we're experiencing in the emerging markets To get that latter group back on track novavax is quite key Excuse me All right, a few other final points then just to go over And just on the calendar. What have we got for the day ahead? Pretty quiet actually for today. Not a great deal going on We've got the german zew coming out at 10 a.m. This morning, london time expended to uptick to 72 From 70 spot 7 don't really see that as too much of a big game changer to be quite frank But worth keeping an eye out for And then nothing really coming out the states So definitely I think it's going to be a day of do we get a rerun and repeat of yesterday in the equity space? Or do we find a bit of a flaw and given it was one of the biggest down days that we've had in the naztac? Going back A couple of weeks. Do we get a bit of a bounce back now given those technical levels? We've just discussed in the briefing today. You've got the api infantry numbers coming out later on tonight There are a lot of speakers on the docket More concentrated in the afternoons during us hours and with the fed Feds williams feds brainard and feds daily. They're the three. They are all voting members And just given the context of what market kind of led the equity move yesterday Be interested to see do they stick to their kind of party line on the inflation front too early to talk about tapering type mantra I absolutely think that they will continue to recycle those phrases As per evils and daily last night. So williams at 330 brainard at five daily at six You've also got bank mingling governor bailey speaking alongside williams at 330 this afternoon Supply coming out of the uk and you've got 58 billion dollars in a three-in-o auction and the us at six o'clock this evening And with that i'll wrap it up. So Don't forget if you're watching this on youtube to like and subscribe It would be much appreciated. Don't forget to check out amplify live.com if you're not already part of the community And have a great day ahead. Thanks very much