 Can I now ask all the presenters here today to join on the table at the top and can I now introduce our discussant Yese Lastonen who will give some reflections on the presentations so far All right. Thanks a lot David and thanks for the very insightful presentations. So I'd like to start by expanding upon something that David mentioned in the introduction I think Grins also mentioned which is say a little bit more about the Southmount policy notes So like mentioned since 2015 when the Southmount project was started at UNU Wider Kind of one fundamental piece of the project has been delivering these three-day training events to local participants in the respective countries covering the models Covering an introduction to tax-benefit micro simulation modeling in general and one of the challenges with these Training events earlier has been kind of to trying to keep participants engaged after after each training And between training events which are usually around one year apart So we wouldn't want to attend these of these events simply to forget about the models for a year after hopefully attending the next event and These policy notes with which you've seen today and there are many others as well They're kind of an innovation to help address this issue So to have the participants to work actively on the models also after its its training event And it's not just additional engagement as we saw from the presentations The policy notes also offer us a way to kind of ask the right questions questions that the local experts know are Important to their countries So in these training events which we now actually call retreats as I think Grins also mentioned We asked the participants to come up with policy ideas policy evaluation ideas where a You can actually use tax-benefit micro simulation models to evaluate them and be Notes that address questions that are actually important to the local policy debates in each country So the participants start to work in the in the retreat and then continue Working on the on the policy notes for the coming months after the after the retreat with the help of Myself and others at wider SASP and of course the national teams from which we have representatives here in the panel So, yeah, I think it's a great initiative and as you've seen It's a very interesting mixture of of notes that cover a range of policy reforms and their effects on public spending poverty and inequality among other things So I thought I'd mention a few things that I think Tied these notes together a little bit. So I think one common threat that comes up quite a bit is Targeting so not surprise not surprisingly. We've seen that if you really want to reduce poverty in a country You need to target the poor similarly, if you want to improve the welfare of Self-employed women or orphan children or older people you should really target those groups in most cases And I think these studies really highlights how policy goals can be achieved cost-effectively when targeting is done done in a proper way so you have you know more per capita support for the target group you can use less resources overall and It's also possible to design the benefits more often to promote desired behavioral Behaviors like school attendance in the case of one of the Vietnamese briefs Of course, there are some caveats or counterarguments just using this narrow Targeted benefits like the general difficulty in identifying a small group of beneficiaries Targeted benefits can also be harder to administer Sometimes politically less feasible and so on so there are these caveats that we also need to keep in mind when thinking about these benefits Another point that is relevant to the topic of the conference is that even if the targeting is successful any Effective social protection measure still requires sufficient funding sufficient revenues raised to fund it so We saw for instance from the Mozambique note that increasing the benefit amounts and the coverage Amounts of the BSSP policy. It's it can reduce poverty quite substantially same with Orphan gas transfer in Tanzania Some of the model benefits had a very large impact on poverty reduction in the country But at the same time the cost implications are are quite noticeable in those cases and these ties to what I would call Win-win reforms where changes in tax-benefit arrangements actually lead to reductions in poverty and inequality Without requiring additional public spending on net or even increasing revenues on net terms So as we saw in the note from Ghana for instance the focus was on Streamlining the little bit problematic education support policy and reallocating these additional resources to the kind of more cost-effective OLEDs benefit one of the Vietnamese notes in turn showed how a New education related benefit to minority children could be fully funded by income tax adjustments So these are some of the examples of these these type of policies that allowed for both Allowed for reduced in poverty in the revenue neutral manner and the zombie on case was also Similar not fully revenue neutral but basically also had the goal of using public resources kind of more effectively to reduce poverty and inequality and Identifying these Finvin situations basically hypothetical reforms That are favorable both from budgetary point of view, but also distributional point of view I think this is where tax-benefit micro simulation modeling really signs and it's also where I think policymakers would benefit most from the methodology So yeah, finally just another kind of a policy related point, but also a technical technical point Which is about different scenarios you've seen in many of these policy notes so In one of the well from a policy maker's point of view you want to have policy options that you can easily Compare against each other. There should be something that would make them easily comparable and In one of the Vietnamese notes for instance the one with the benefit to self-employed women The study compared three scenarios that differed by their targeting and benefit amounts But the total budget in each case was exactly the same So this makes it really easy for policy makers to kind of pick and choose based on their goals Which reform would be the most favorable? So this is something I think we should strive to do in these analysis in most cases Simply because it makes it easy to compare the findings So yeah, I think I'll leave it at that And hand it back over to David and leave the rest of questions to the floor. So thank you Thank you. Yes. I Before we open up the questions to the floor Can I ask any of the speakers so far whether they'd like to respond to any of the points that yes a has just raised? I think he is a kind of who not really raised questions, but Sort of argumented what has been done I was in this country and he tried to show again What we've been in for say that he this particular model can be really very useful in Trying to translate what people see at the macro level people talk about the economic growth Those macro variables, but you don't see what's happening on the ground. So you see It's important that we are able to show to the policy maker Especially the government people that look all this struggle in efforts to reduce the inequality and poverty Can be really achieve within? Exactly evidence-based scenarios. I think this is what he has been trying to say I think it will help a lot to have something on table to say look We talk about vulnerable in terms of example based on this does more than we have done in universal coverage There has been a big debate in that to help a lot a lot to clear and give insights They've been issue about the vulnerable individuals in the households the child grants and now we've done this often and People talk about what would be the impact of introducing different subsidies and they are quite a number of other Areas we are going to look at especially when they introduce the The fees I mean taxes of easy on communication plus the one on the I can remember we call tozo there is in communication when you use it when you call somebody and The other also taxes as well old fees So the quite a lot this model which are capable of doing to try to bring an evidence on the table of What will be the impact in one sense when it comes to welfare and inequality what that will cost government resource whether is the sort of exempted taxi or Using a public fund, but more so the kind of beneficiaries in a little bit criteria So I think he just has tried to summarize what has been doing and I'll really thank you very much You know where to come with this innovation or form Do a retreat where people Come with a policy brief because this government people are very busy Well, they're there after meeting they're going back So if you tell them in advance you people from social protection unit, what do we think is important? You people from the minister of agriculture. What do we think is important then come with the idea then you work with them They see example the new scenarios. I think that's helped a lot That is to support to what this has been saying. All right. Just just to add a few words Yes, it mentioned. Thank you and you mentioned targeting as one of the key challenges when it comes to Suggesting policy reforms and that is what makes these Particular reform. We are suggesting the update car case. You're searching in Ghana quite unique Because then the government doesn't have to disturb itself with worrying about issues of Seen to it that the targeting is quite propo because with this reform it it it kinds of on its own Delineates the poor from the From those who are actual those who can actually pay and are willing to pay. So then the government takes up just the Day cost then those who are willing to pay for the residential Moves on to pay and no one is discriminated against right? So this this is also unique way to go around the Targeting issues because currently their suggestions about government's properly targeting and Focusing on those who actually need these cost the fee Rebates and those who actually need these benefits, but the challenge has been how to Target on the government side and I think this can be a crazy targeting strategy that can be adopted by the government. Thank you Yeah Just to conquer with the other speakers. I'd like to speak also additionally about another aspect Obviously yes, I mentioned some of the important things that we're able to do But also as a member of the team working on the model the policy notes and the policy solutions also help us as teams Working on the model to also think about Some of the limitations of the model. What else can we do to improve the model? What sort of data? Can we look for because as we discuss these various ideas we then also are able to realize that the model has limitations There are certain data limitations and I think this process has been helpful for us also as teams to understand How else can we make this model work? What sort of questions are being asked? What policy questions are being asked that we might have challenges answering? And so how do we work to improve that model? What other pieces of data can we look at? How can we find these data pieces and put them into the model so that we basically Help and improve to understand Some of these are problems for example one of the challenges we had is When we looked at the the policy note that we prepared we were not able to model The administration costs which are quite huge and so the model or the presentation results will basically show that This change will be as a result of this this this reform will result in additional costs But in reality we know that the savings on the administrative costs, which we do not model In the in the model are far higher And so actually even with the new reform and the additional funding in reality the government might not be able to In the government will not need to spend additional money So it's sort of those challenges that we also face that help us to think about how best we can Improve and work on the model so that we ensure that our results are actually more effective and more convincing for the policymakers. Thank you So I just want to add some few words for the case of Vietnam And I think that the tax policy of the tax policy the reforms of tax policy is a way controls Not only in Vietnam, but also in other countries So the micro simulation comes from the household level So it can like be a good evidence base or for convincing the government to include some kind of the Evidence for the government to think of the policy adjustment So for example, it might be in the case of Vietnam. We have some some reason reforms of the tax management system So one of that is like the personal income tax that I have already presented or In one case that the forthcoming study on the Adjusting excited on tobacco is quite consul to control so And it has been last quite long time ago five six years ago in one way the producers they want to promote their productions and they want and in other side the government want to increase the revenue so What to do with the VN mode or the micro simulation is that we provide The evidence base so that to have some justification as well so conferencing for the government through some of the very specific Programs specific policy or very specific amount that can be like evidence Thank you men. Thank you everybody Okay, we we started slightly late, so I hope you don't mind if we continue for about another ten minutes Can I ask Questions on the floor and whether we have any questions online? Yes questions on the floor we have one of we any more should we take to take two questions if we've got them Okay, just a gentleman here first Could you introduce yourself say where you're from please? Thank you I'm Arnold Chinfuenbe from the Zambia Revenue Authority. That is Zambia so I'm not sure if it's more of a question or a comment, but Great presentations and I think it's it's great research obviously in what we're trying to look at Social welfare and reducing poverty But obviously when you look at the flip side of the coin There's an issue of raising those the revenues and obviously you can't just rely on grants There's the taxation aspect and if we take an example of a country like where we are in Norway The rate of personal income tax is quite high So those are factors that would probably need to be considered when we look at When we talk about the social benefits you look at the flip side of the coin on how it to affect the taxation of the individuals in those countries so now this also takes me into the targeted groups my thoughts around this With Ghana, I think because of the targeted groups. It's something that works well, but when you look at Probably Tanzania. I was thinking around instead of looking at Providing cash to the households. Are you able to convert that into another form of benefit? proposing maybe foods foodstuffs for example maybe rice a bag of rice because if you are going to provide Cash to a household that is looking after an orphan Chances are that that person might not actually benefit from that actual resource that is being taken to that so my thoughts were around that if in in the research probably there's a Way in which you can move the element of the cash transfer for the orphans Especially children instead of giving the the people that are taking care of them that's actual cash Try to find ways in which you can support They may be give them uniform for schools or pay for their school fees Do that actual benefit instead of just giving them cash and on a lighter note You might find that relatives are taking out each other's what they benefit from their resource. Thank you Thank you for that for that question before we ask the panel to answer that there's a lady of the head has a question as well Thank you. I'm Lillian Prasthair from NORAD and thank you for great presentations And a variety of examples that were really interesting to listen to so I wanted to ask about Specifically the Zambia case but a bit general where you compare a Policy that is related to distributing inputs versus cash. I mean I think it's a bit You know there this will create quite a bit of interest I think because cash is a little bit in time now but I was wondering if When making policy recommendations whether you then also have to consider effects of you know introducing cash instead of inputs when it comes to The access to these inputs for people who get cash instead I mean will it raise the price or what will happen to that? Yeah, so that was One question whether you need then to follow up or or if you can I don't know if it is possible to capture it And the other question was how And more generally to the model how The alternative Policies are selected. Is it selected together with the government to? you know to choose alternatives that are Doable or desirable from the government side Or is it more kind of based on your research design? Yeah Or both maybe Thank you very much for those two questions. Can I suggest that? Michelle, oh do you want to take the question about FISP first as that's quite specific and then the questions around? The Bates around the food packages versus cash and the issue in the process of policy reform selection is maybe a broader discussion for the panel Okay, great Yeah, so obviously It's quite interesting that we compare two programs So firstly the social cash transfer program in Zambia, which is which provides cash to households has also been running for around the same period also around two decades and This is delivered in cash to households Maybe the issues would be the difference in what the purpose is so for example The cash transfer is then meant to support the household in terms of it meeting food costs and other Living costs so whatever it is that the household needs to pay for whereas For the inputs, they are very specific and they are forming inputs. So they receive them in kind However, the challenge is and why we looked at this particular program is these inputs firstly are not produced locally in Zambia so These are imported inputs Fertilizers imported and in the last two or three years the price has been significantly high because of what has been happening in Ukraine So it's meant also that government has been had to spend far much higher There are other issues also outside the inputs that we consider for the agriculture sector I think one of the concerns from policy makers is what happens to nutrition. What happens to food production? One of the things that we look at they're not considered in the model At the point of selecting these policy reforms is we also consider what are the productivity levels? If you look at rural households in Zambia that are already receiving these inputs for farming 30% of rural households in Zambia are actually net buyers of maize because the inputs largely go into maize production So despite government giving inputs to produce maize 30% of these rural households actually end up buying maize meaning in terms of productivity There is nothing that's happening on the ground. So those are also some of the concerns that we consider So ideally instead of pushing these households to produce maize We're basically saying can we give them a cash grant that they can then use to buy food rather than Production of maize which they might not be so good at. Thank you Yes, let me attempt to attempt to the Three questions quickly as fast as there is concern. Then my friend will help as well So I understand that there is a tax fatigue And in our governments, they always tax those who are formerly which is very bad So this model allow to look for source other than tax And when we are doing for example in West of earth coverage We have so many other source outside of the tax system. It's not all about doing tax swaps So we went to the livestock market. We assume if Every for a single let's say Keto or goats you take this amount You go to a tourism. There are quite a number of transactions there. You take certain amount You go to airport assuming that the People are traveling a middle class and the they afford a lot of things So we have a range of issues where we can generate a big sum For the case of sounds a bit was even interesting because the doing this is negotiations They talk so much about zakat and the zakat. I think is Like what is it teeth in Christian and the Muslim sons bow and at nine point nine percent They give a lot and have institution and they say they give a thing to is easy 2.25% and that's the amount of money significance the issue is about the Mechanism through which that can be turned around it to be sort of social protections It's done it partly Nigeria southern Sudan most of these Arabic countries and it ends a lot of in it It's not only about tax and the in Tanzania or Kenya or other areas There is this they say syntax the casino and whatever so there are so many others other than the former one it all depends how you Implement and this is bring me to the second day beats I mean a shall we give direct money to the parents who may end up a colleague or do other things or Should have other approach and in that most of this is a transfer They are programmed other than giving that the money condition condition attending school condition attending clinic or The package you could have been in the hospital for example maternity grants and the supermarket where You only get in kindly but the man has already been paid in there So there could be many approaches to ensure that the targeted the orphaned child Or vulnerable or poor household or whatever they really get the money. I think he That's gonna be done. And the it's about it's about how you you organize in the plant that one And the last one was about the member Sure, well, should we can I ask whether and Prince and Min would like to respond to the question the ladies question about the Process through which policy reforms have been selected Yes, maybe a bit of that one like in your case. You see I just presented on behalf of the government people And this one is a good case because in this is a good in this is a group what was referred as the Intersectoral multi-sector short protections Where is the under prime minister office as heading that but people come from Minister of Agriculture Minister of Health some government departments the TASF and the vulnerability department in prime minister. So It's them they engage they came with ideas We only organize II think it through whether it can be done within the model and we let them go with some support from Some support from you wider and they come up with a policy. So this policy is really by MDS means Government means department and agents who came together under the training for the case of the one for Tanzania That said, I don't think there's much to add from Ghana because the strategy to Selecting policies is basically the same. So we don't impose any policy prescription on them is the participants who have Who have diverse background who come up with these? Policy suggestions and our role is just to to help them see whether the model can help address The questions they have in terms of policy and then essentially that helped because they come From a point of need that okay the government or the civil society Institution is interested in knowing ABC about tax social assistance How does gamut help then we help them shape things and then put this up, all right Yeah, so for the case of Vietnam's we Especially first one talk about the upcoming study first. So on the excite tax on tobacco The policy is being promoted by the government on the tax reform system so we involve in a lot of Debate and also involve in a lot of dialogue with the policy makers and also the other stakeholder of the industries we found some of the Scenarios that is being discussed or being or maybe included in the proposal to the government so by using the model we can have some better evidence or better Justifications for the government to see that if you change that kind of policy You can get how much and how much come to the household how much come to the production and how much come to others Different stakeholder. So that is like the real policy reform So not only in like the policy note the two other policy note is also comes from the ideas of the Participants from the training retreat and but actually it's still based on the very practical issues in Vietnam That you you have not yet touched upon a certain target group that need to be like Have more benefit. Yeah. Thank you Okay, I'll just finally also that these policies from from particularly from Ghana often Policies where there's much talk about it in in Normative talk, right without facts. So these Individuals are often interested in How do we get facts to contribute to this discussion? Right. So currently ongoing free research is a big talk in Ghana now, but it's all being okay out of value judgments So this helps them add some figures So some statistical basis to the suggested reforms Thank you very much So we've just about reached time now in fact just gone over for my side I just quickly reflect to my three main reflections I think both from the sessions today, but also from my in my years of work on this program with colleagues here and around the world Firstly, I mean a conference this week We've heard a lot about the importance of Simulating tax and tax reforms for generating revenue. I hope for the you'll see you'll have seen today That also there's a lot of value in in simulating the effects of benefit reforms in conjunction potentially with tax reforms For tackling poverty and inequality across the global south. I Hope you'll agree with me that and the models that you've seen presented today Demonstrate a high degree of flexibility We've heard about policy notes on issues around low-income women children in schools Orphans farmers labor constrained households. There's been work around the effect of the impact of COVID on incomes and distributions So these models have a great deal of flexibility both the modeling the effects and tax systems, but also benefits And finally a theme that has been raised a number of times over the last few days And is the importance of collaboration and I think this is a real strength of the south pod program in that There's no way we could have reached the point We are now without really strong bonds and working relationships between Our local experts on the ground in these countries Why they're ourselves that's asked for the other academic institutions, but also really importantly the participants in the training courses The people who are employed in the ministries who actually know on a day-to-day basis what these policy needs are Which we can hopefully help to support them in developing this evidence base So I'd like to thank everyone who's come today to watch I'd like to thank everybody online and find I'd like to thank our our speakers and our discussant