 Welcome everybody to the show. Today, it's what everybody's been talking about recently, which is the jobs report came out and just how badly the different economists got this one wrong and where we're potentially headed. And if you haven't seen it already, which I doubt many of you have not seen this, but we'll just go over it real quick, which is the jobs report came out. And it looks like America has added a ton of jobs. Now, I don't wanna go over the specifics because some people will say, well, this is all about seasonality and they're kind of part-time workers versus full-time workers or they're talking about gig economy or whatever else. I'm just telling you that the numbers that came out, it's not looking too good for what the Federal Reserve is trying to do. And the Federal Reserve is trying to do, they're trying to raise rates to crush inflation and bring everything down. And they want the unemployment rate to actually skyrocket and go up. They want people to be out of work and they don't want so many jobs to be created. And that is a problem moving forward as far as with the rates and the economy. And of course, this was for 336,000 jobs in September alone. And the economists, which I gotta tell you, there's like two jobs you can have and be wrong all the time and still get paid. And one of those is a weatherman. The second one is an economist. And they have predicted the U.S. that added just about 170,000 jobs last month. That was the prediction. And that didn't come true. They also thought the unemployment rate would come back to 37 or 36. And that didn't happen. It's stuck at 3.8%. So what really happens is as time goes on and you see these negative macro indicators and you think to yourself, okay, that's negative. So what's gonna happen is that the market's going to just go up. And I said, let's go up raising the rates. And then of course, the job report comes out and you're like, what the heck? This is gonna be awful. It's a bummer. And it's gonna be awful. And things are gonna start to collapse and it's gonna be bad. And this is the next big thing. And I gotta tell you, there is no shortage of chicken littles as the sky is falling coming out. And I'm not saying that we're not gonna see our session. I think we are. But it just is amazing to me just how negative we really get. And of course, if we take a look at the unemployment rate. We're at Ben's site here in the Cryptiverse links in the description. First month, 10% off. We can see that, yeah, it's unemployment rate was 3.8% last month. And we are here again at 3.8% this month. And nothing really changed. And I think people were freaking out in July when they said, oh my God. And this of course is in August when I went 3.5 and actually was decreasing. And then of course it went up and everybody was happy. And now here we are again. And people are like, oh, this is the worst thing of all time. So what does that mean for rates? Well, if we take a look at the Fed tool, CME Group, and we can just see that the next Fed meeting is the 1st of November. And right now the federal funds rate, we're looking at between 5.25 and 5.50. So our job are in 5.33, whatever they say. And the probability of a Fed rate hike is now 32%. And the funny thing is you can take a look, if you click on this, there's a link in the description for this website. By the way, if you wanna check it out, if you click on historical and you can take a look at, this is a target rate probability history for the Federal Reserve meeting. What's always interesting to me is just, is just how all over the place everybody else is and where they think things are going and what's gonna actually happen. That's why I'm just not that smart. I just don't really think I can time the market perfectly or even well enough to do anything. I still believe the time in the market is more important than timing the market. I still believe the dollar cost averaging has its place. That's just me. And you can just see like, now again, 525 to 550 is where we're at right now. If we're going to raise rate to 555, 75, back in to August 15th, August, the probability of the first November rate hike was 35%. And you can see that in the left-hand corner. It's kind of hard to see and I can't really blow it up and very sorry, but just trust me, that's what it says. And of course, as time goes on, we can see that that probability, depending on the news that came out, depending on whatever factors that are out there, it really was pretty high, 40%. It was almost like a 55, 45 split. This was back in September, 13th. And for whatever reason, we dropped off a cliff and everybody believed, economist included, that there's not a chance that we're going to raise anything. The probability of the Fed not doing anything and just pausing again in November was almost 82%. And 18% for a rate hike. And then, of course, we got some bad news and then I went up to like a 70, 30 split. And then of course, just yesterday, just yesterday, October 5th, it is October 6th, right? Yeah. Just yesterday, it was an 80, 20 split. Because everybody was like, look, when these job reports come out, it's not a big deal. Because we know what it's going to be. The economist are saying it's going to be business. It's going to be a slight uptick. It's not going to be a big thing. We're going to see a slight reduction and it's not going to happen. And what happened? Well, of course, we get a job report. Now everybody's like, oh, that's going to be the worst thing. I bet you this number will rise by tomorrow. Maybe up to be like a 60, 40%. But again, in the long run, who knows if the Fed's going to raise rates? Nobody absolutely knows. And quite honestly, I'm kind of hoping it does. So we'll see how it all works out. And then of course, the big thing to consider everybody, Treasury yields, that's what everybody says and believes is a very great indicator for a recession. And I'm not going to say it's not because it's been pretty darn accurate going all the way back into the 70s. Of course, we take a look at the 10 year and two year spread. We can see that every time, we talk about this numerous times on the channel, every time there's an inversion and it goes down. And once we start to recoup, then we start to go into a recession. Happened in the 70s. Happened again in the 80s. Over here, happened in the 90s. We see an inversion. Everything comes back and everything's good. Everybody's like, oh, it's a big deal. And then of course we have recession. Happened in the dot com era. There was an inversion. Then it uninverts, then we have a recession. Happened in 2007, the great recession. A little small one down here, not too bad. And then of course, very slight, very, very slight in the, uh, surveys of virus and now here we are in 2022. And we've seen this, this is going back to June. This is a year ago and it's been pretty darned deep. And of course, now we were coming up to the spot of where it may at some point unvert. But once we get there and it rises, then we'll see a recession. So who knows when it could be, who knows it could be a soft landing, a hard landing, I'm not for sure. But all this, this data, all this information that we have and we think we know where things are going. What does the market do? It does whatever it wants to do. Bitcoin last 24 hours up 2%, 7 day 4%. Ethereum last hour 0.1, 2.3. And I purposely didn't do a live stream two, three, four hours ago because it was nothing but negative news. It was nothing like, okay, jobs before it comes out, we're gonna see a huge drop off. And actually, if you take a look at Bitcoin the last 24 hours, I think there was. Yeah, here it was. And this is for the rookies, you know? And if you're watching this video, you're not. You've been here for quite some time. And this is where people go, okay, you wanna dump? All right, I'll wait, I'll wait, I'll wait. And then for the scalpers, they pick this stuff up and then boom, off it goes. What happened to traditional markets? Same thing. You know, there was an opening, opening bell, 930, a little bit of a drop off and they're like, we don't care, whoop, and there it goes. Now over five days, that's actually still up. One month, of course, he adds down, but six months, S&P 500 is doing quite well. One year, still pretty good. Now we're not at the all-time high, obviously, but I mean, look at this. Not too bad, although there's been a little drop off and a little recovery. So for me, when I take a look at these things, I'm just like, just par for the course and don't really care too much. So anyhow, let me know what you think about that in the comment section. And then let me come up to here. So what we're just talking about, everything as far as the S&P 500, and we took a look at the different rates and stuff like that. This really does correspond to, I think, and I call it, this was one of the, this was one of the most bullish interviews I've seen. That's Dan Morehead. He is the CFO of Pantera Capital. And I just went by this piece by piece. It was about a seven minute interview, but we broke it down. And what he talks about, he's talking about how massively overvalued the stock market is. Equities, he says, are massively overvalued 23 to 43%. And he expects a drop somewhere around there. Not saying it's gonna definitely happen, but he's like, look, these things are super overvalued. And then he gets into some really good things when he talks about how Bitcoin used to be correlated to the stock market or traditional markets. And it is at times, but we go through this and we take a look that yes, it actually is not correlated all the time. And it's actually hovering around the 0 to 0.2 level, depending on the date. And we took a look at how he said, it's gonna be 20 years for a wild ride as Bitcoin and mass adoption comes in. And he said something very interesting. He said, we're so very early and institutions have next to nothing as far as exposure. And it was a pretty good bullish video if you care to watch that link in the description. And then that was yesterday this morning I put out the interview between me and Gary Cardone, not Grant, Gary Cardone. I mean, Gary's a great guy. Watch the video. You'll see, I know people are like, is this Grant or is it Gary? It's Gary Cardone. And what we talked about was the same thing. And Gary here was the VP of natural gas clearing house president CEO of Dynage in Europe, Fortune 30 company. And he's been investing in crypto slowly since 2016. And now he's really ramping things up and really getting specific about what he's doing and really trying to load up on the things that he wants, which is mostly Bitcoin, as he says. But what was interesting to me is that when he talked about this stuff and he said, there was two things. He goes, first of all, he echoed the same thing that Dan Moritz said. He goes, institutions, the family offices, they have next to zero exposure. They're starting to understand. He said, just like I understood how this all works. And he said that right now in 2023, as Bitcoin is 28,000, it's a better investment as far as risk goes than it was in 2017 at $8,000. And people were asking, what does it mean by that? I can't speak for Gary, but I can tell you right now that to make it super simple, if we take a look at, and I've been showing this chart for the last three days, I think it's just a brain dead easy thing to understand. If you take a look at all the asset classes, even if we wiped out 2011, 12 and 13, which had like, you know, 2012 was 186%, but the 1400 and 5500, we wiped that out. We're still above all of the different asset classes out there over the last 10, 12, 13 years. And when these institutions, these family offices, and I think they're all looking at it and going, oh, okay, we get it. We just gotta wait a little bit because, you know, regulatory clarity, Gary Gensler, blah, blah, blah. But when they look at this, they're like, okay, we get it. I think once, no one wants to be like the first, but nobody wants to be last, that's for sure. And back in my day, and you know, when Gary was also accumulating, in 2016, 2017, we didn't have the institutions that are coming in. We didn't have sitting senators, congressmen and women debating on just how big crypto and digital assets would be and the different laws that need to have as far as governance and regulation and clarity. We didn't have a country using it as legal tender as El Salvador does. We didn't have the rails and everything else that we have right now in 2023. So back in 2017, it was a whole different ball game. It was a heck of a lot of risk here because we didn't have all the things that were coming. Now right now it kind of sucks because we have to go through Gary Gensler, the nonsense that is. But I think when Gary talked about that in the interview and I linked in the description, it makes a lot of sense. Yes, there's less risk, but of course, you're not getting at that great price level. I can see where things are, I think things are going, but the market does what it wants to do and I think there's a massive upside. So now talking about all that sunshine that I just showered everybody with in that great Hopium, let's get a little balance because we can't just talk about the moon without talking about the rocket ship ride to get there. So I'm biased on this channel. You know that, I only talk about the things that I own and I will also talk about when there's trouble in paradise. So polygon, I don't know if you know this, but you should be made aware that the second exec has stepped down from polygon itself. And this is one of the co-founders. The other ones, we'll get to that in a second. So polygon co-founder, Jainty Kanani, revealed on Tuesday, he's been stepping down. He's gonna be moving on to new adventures after helping launch it polygon in 2017. And this makes Kanani the second of 10 polygon co-founders in the third exec to announce their third departus here. So I stand corrected, it was second co-founder in the third executive to actually step down. And that's really never good. You know, when we hear these things and of course we always think about FTX and all the people stepping down and whatever else, so you get scared, but hold on, just wait. Maybe it's not all bad. Back in March, co-founder Adrien left the company to work on a modular blockchain spin-off. The other co-founder project called Avail. Later polygon labs president, Ryan Watts stepped down from his role. And he was replaced by the chief legal officer, Mike Mark Boyron. Polygon also remains ahead of most competitors in DeFi, boasting the fifth highest TVL compared to other networks at 794 million. However, competitors in the layer two solution of Ethereum scaling, Arbitrum is beating them quite soundly with 1.7 billion TVL. And actually I think it's even more than that. We've talked about Arbitrum a lot. Why are we talking about Arbitrum? Because Rob owns it, that's why. So there is those things going on. And then also don't forget, the reason why Polygon's down roughly 80, 85%, I can't remember, but it's not as bad as some, but it's still not a great year for them. And one of the reasons is because the SEC sued Coinbase in June and they named Matic among a host of tokens that deemed to be unregistered securities. Sure, they just named it, but they didn't bring any legal action, which is also nice. So you have the problem with being named a security, but you don't have the legal recourse to come up for the SEC, fantastic. And of course, there were other swept up in the controversy as Cardano and Solana were also named in that case. Although I will say one thing about Solana, if you take a look at 2023 January to today, Solana is up pretty well. So it didn't really affect them too much. The company is now applying to transition to Polygon 2.0, interconnected network of layer two chains powered by zero knowledge tech. This transforms Polygon's current Matic token into pole. And essentially what they're gonna do is instead of doing a bunch of bridges and wrapping, you're just gonna be able to go through Polygon 2.0. I'm not the big tech person, so don't ask me on this one. We know it's positive, but I'll break it down at some point. But again, I want to bring this to everybody's attention that this is the third, one of two co-founders recently stepped down and also the third executive, if you want to take a look at it. So maybe there's trouble in paradise, maybe there's not, but that's for you to decide and I can't give you financial advice just how to bring it to everybody's attention. Also, some other news. The bear markets hit everybody in different ways. And unfortunately ledger just had to cut 12% of its staff. Now, I use ledger and I think this is a smart move if it is what it is, because that's how you stay lean and that's how you survive to 2025. If you have to lay off people, nobody wants to do it. I hate doing it myself, but at some point, if things are going right, you gotta do these things. But it's just a sign of time. So what does this mean? How many people laid off? So the Paris based company has 734 employees, which I was actually shocked. I'm like, that's a lot of people working for ledger, but I guess they need them. That's 12% cut would mean elimination of roughly 88 jobs. Not too bad, but for those 88 people, I'm sure it's pretty horrible. Cuts come just months. And this is the interesting part. The cuts come just months after ledger announced it had raised a 109 million funding round at around a $1.4 billion valuation. So take that as you will. And that's what's going on with ledger. Now, me personally, I personally have a ledger device. I also have an ellipal and I also have a tangent wallet. And one of the biggest things about tangent wallet, again, these are all cold storage devices. One of the things about tangent that people gave me a lot of guff about when I did my deep dive video, links in the description, affiliate link as well. You don't have to use it, but you don't get 10% off. Is I showed you exactly how it works, how you two or three cards, how even if the company expires and goes away that you can still access your crypto, and then of course how to move crypto between your centralized exchanges and your cold storage device and the technology behind it a little bit. And when I did this, a lot of people were like, you know what, I like it, but you can't write down your demonic phrase because the private key is within the card itself. And some people don't like it. I think it's going to be the boom for the next bull run because that's what people are used to. So for the OGs, like ourselves, let's be honest, that wasn't available. Well, now tangent 2.0 was out and they're allowing that to happen with their new devices that are shipped out. Not too expensive. Again, they're between if like a two cards is like 39 bucks, three cards is like $55. So I'm not gonna go into it, but link in the description, you can check the video out. I will update that video with the new information, but I'm waiting for them to also update the app on the phone because there's more functionality and I wanna show everybody what that is, but that's available right now. The app upgrade, not the hard storage, the cold storage device is already upgradeable and ready to go. So there is that. And then lastly for the news, some really, I think this is good news. I do. And for an ETF, again, this would be, going back to a question about how safe is it or how, as far as risk reward compared to 2017, there was no Bitcoin ETF spot being talked about. The only one that we talked about back then was the CBOE Futures Bitcoin ETF, which crashed the market. It was launched on December 19th, 2017. But spot ETFs gonna be good. I have had my theories and thoughts about this, but this came out yesterday, or a couple of days ago, actually. An ex-BlackRock director says the SEC will approve a Bitcoin ETF in three to six months. Look, I don't think it's gonna be approved, but again, like I said, I'd rather be wrong and rich than right and poor. So here's what we got. So the ex-employee, or excuse me, the ex-BlackRock director, which has like nine or 10 trillion assets in our management, named Schoenfield, said that he would have given the industry crypto industry nine to 12 months before an approval of a spot ETF. But he has changed his mind because the SEC's recent decision to delay giving verdicts on several pending ETF applications is unlike previous delaying tactics by the SEC, instead of completely rejecting the whole list. And again, there's numerous ones. There's Fidelity, there's Bitwise, there's BlackRock, a ton of other ones that are out there. They're probably all be, if they do get approved, it all be all at once, because only the SEC wants to give somebody first mover of edge. But they say instead of completely rejecting the whole list, they've asked for comments, which is a marginal but significant improvement in the dialogue. There's also the grayscale lawsuit, which the SEC lost, which means they're most likely going to have to allow the grayscale Bitcoin trust to be converted into an ETF. And you know, Mr. Schoenfield, I hope he's right and I hope it works out, but one thing we've seen in the past, Gary is incredibly stubborn and we'll see if it works out. I don't know if he will do it, but let's hope he does. And then of course, I have a bet going on with Mr. Simon Dixon. And I told him that if, I don't believe it's gonna be approved. And I said, if it is approved, I will wear an I Heart Mishinsky T-shirt. Now, if it's not approved, Simon has to wear the same T-shirt, which neither of us want to do. And we'll see how that works out, but I'm a man of my word and I will actually do that. But just so as a reminder, Simon, part of the Celsius recovery solution, he's announcing, he's putting out three videos. One out of the three, the first one was today. Everything you need to know about substantial emotions. Everything you know about the Celsius crypto distribution. And then the third one is everything you need to know about the Celsius equity distribution. So I tweeted that out. Also, there should be a link in the description or you can go to simondixon.com forward slash recovery and learn everything you need to know about the Celsius recovery. Me personally, awful situation. I think, I lost, Simon lost, we all lost, it sucks. And I think this case with Sam, Scam, Wakeman, Fried is just a precursor for the Alex Mishinsky trial and we'll see how that works out. And then also lastly, lastly as a reminder, still giving away the 100,000 sweat coin, that's to 20 people. We'll be giving away 20,000 sweat. All we have to do is follow me on Twitter, all the sweat economy, comment below and then fill out this form. And I'm gonna be drawing that on October 14th. And that's for the wallet that's coming to the United States on the 17th. So just as a quick refresher, they're all the sweat coin with the sweat wallet. You're gonna be able to not only just, get free sweat coins for walking and get all these things as far as like buying. You're also be able to swap tokens in there. So you can't really see it, but you can get like for sweat coin, you can get the near token, near you can get for ETH, near for ETH, and then down here, it's kind of hard to see, but you got Euro for sweat. So this is gonna be an on ramp, it's pretty cool. And then also, there's other different things to win that they're putting in the wallet itself, like Amazon Prime and USDT wins and all that great stuff, Xboxes and treadmills and blah, blah, blah. And of course, how does sweat coin make their money? Well, they've been around for like seven, eight years and just like YouTube, you get to see ads and that's what they do, but they just give it back to their community instead of giving it to influencers. So that was a long stuff, a lot of things going on today but we'll see how it all plays out. Again, I don't think anybody has a crystal ball, that's by time in the market, it's better than timing in the market. And that's it. So look, like today's video, give it a thumbs up, consider subscribing. Also don't forget about the two videos I talked about, the one with Dan Moorhead and the one with Gary Cardone, links in the description and it kind of just kind of sets us up for hopefully the next bull market. So that's it.