 I'm joined by Mark Bailey from Fig Securities and who would be this guy? Mark, I mean how, what do you say, you just go in there and try and pretend like everything is fine at home, everyone's on the same page at home and really it's just a complete state of flux? Yeah, good morning James, I think that's exactly what David Davies has to do, he has to kind of go in there and you know almost project to the United Front but again you know there's calls in the UK press over the weekend that maybe Theresa May only has 10 days to turn around her premiership, prime ministership sorry and you know the handling of the tower fire in Grenfell Towers she hasn't done particularly well there so there's talk that maybe there's some kind of stalking horse from the soft Brexit camp again you know again doesn't help that United Front but you know the negotiations start today. Strangely though if you look at the price action on Sturl and given the kind of almost surprise election result and the strength of Labor you've actually seen Sturling versus the Euro in terms of the volatility at the lowest levels so far this month and the amount of movement since 2014 which is probably slightly perverse given the shocks that we've seen over the last few weeks but in terms of the currency markets positioning on Sturling it's the most bearish out of the G10 currencies if you're looking at the option traded baskets and looking at how the pricing is there so the market is certainly expecting to see Sturling coming out weaker and I think part of that is due to the fact that you're seeing weakness in terms of their position bargaining position on the Brexit and who knows how that's going to go forward you know they've got to try and secure the rights of the UK citizens in Europe and vice versa the EU nationals in the UK and also they've got that tricky problem of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic so those are the key issues that they will want to try to resolve first but you know I'm sure the on the other side the EU is going to want to hit them with the the exit bill which we've seen that you could be up to you know 80 billion euros which is you know way too much than the UK government is prepared to pay and they've kind of said ballpark you know between one and five billion as as a fair fair price to pay to leave so it's all up for negotiations that those negation negotiations kick off today in Brussels with David Davis heading over there but you know it's going to be a very difficult two-year conversation. Yeah just looking forward I mean you mentioned their low volatility which is fairly surprising but those currency moves I mean given now that these negotiations are getting underway do you think you know a bit of angst will sort of ramp up a bit of volatility uncertainty around that region? I think so and I think you know they're kind of the markets will hinge slightly on some of the rumours and some of the deals or you know the positioning that does take place I've seen a lot of talk in the in the in the financial markets it's more about the tone of the negotiations and if the tone is constructive then you I think that will help to dampen your currency volatility but I think you know there's always a chance and I think it's an increased chance that you know Britain will leave the European Union without a deal I think that probability has increased significantly since the general election since kind of Labour's strength in the polls and you know they still got to cement that I guess agreement with the the either Irish party the DUP in terms of what that they actually need to do to get those guys on board and again it's there's still a pretty much a way for thin majority in any case so I think you're gonna see weakness in stealing over the next three to six months and then potentially you may see a bit of strengthening as everybody's position for that starts to reverse out. How do you think the BOE, Mark Karni led BOE view it all I mean we saw just last week a surprising amount of members actually vote in favour of a hike far above what the market had expected I mean could you imagine a situation where you're seeing hikes with all of this brexit uncertainty around UK floating about? Yeah look the the Bank of England meeting last week and the 5-3 split in terms of you know 5 for whole 3 for hikes was considerably higher than the market expected in terms of favour for hikes I think one of those is is leaving the NPC next month so she will drop out of the voting one is a renowned hawk and the other one was probably a bit of surprise so probably actually wasn't as hawkish as initial reads would indicate but having said that you know I still think it's remarkable that the Bank of England is almost kind of it seemed to ignore the election results which was a surprise and also the chance of volatility coming through in terms of the brexit negotiations on the flip side though we have seen you know higher inflation coming through whether it's in the CPI prices or the RPI prices they both surprised on the on the upside so again that's something that the Bank of England has to be aware of but I struggled still to believe that you gonna see the Bank of England hiking rates given the amount of uncertainty that's still surrounding the UK economy even if you do see inflation starting to pick up and run run through but a lot of that is driven by the fall that you've seen over the last six months to a year in sterling importing inflation and maybe once that works it works its way through the system you're still not seeing any kind of wage inflation coming through in the UK as you're not here or in the States so that will give the Bank of England a bit of breathing space so to potentially look through any kind of it temporary spikes in in inflation. Mark can we just extend the conversation beyond this point decline Jessica Russ at Live at Fig will welcome into the show and putting this one into context now so all about the data from here on in and just looking at those home figures the starts at an eight month low it's problematic is it not and the markets expressing it to a measure. Good afternoon Carson thanks for having me that's right this is another example of some weaker data coming through out of the US they were expecting a 1.22 mill annual with those house starts that came in at 1.09 mill and so that is a drop of 5.5 percent as you did mention there which is the an eight month low so what we have seen is yields drop lower on the back of that we've got the 10 year currently at 2.15 percent and the highest has actually been this year has been at 2.63 percent so it's come off quite significantly and this is after there have been you know four rate hikes so it's quite it's quite interesting to see. Domestically news out on the sovereigns exercise on its selling now 400 just 400 mill the 2037 bonds what a 375 level here what do we make of this you know this this uptake like the uptake. Yeah we have had we had some issuance last week on the three year those 10 year and also 30 years well it has been met with muted demand we our yields here have actually been holding quite steady they've been trading around the for that 10 year in particular it's been trading around the 2.39 to 2.41 percent and it's currently at 2.4 percent so it's been trading quite quite range quite a tight range and we are seeing that with this new issuance as well coming through from Australian government yields as well that they've been the same. Jessica must make a move but thank you as always good to get an update Jessica Russell live at FIG we'll take our own.