 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network We have got some awesome conference games coming up this week across college football Clemson Wake Forest, Florida, Tennessee Wisconsin, Ohio State a lot of fun games a lot of conference games in the doctor We're gonna break those down Let you know what to bet within those games and the best bets across week four in college football This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as I am each Wednesday by Dr Ed Feng you can find his work at the power rank calm and find him on Twitter at the power rank and Ed I gotta ask you There was a video this week on Twitter about a new walk-on recruiter Penn State named Chad Powers Can your numbers account for a walk-on coming out of nowhere looking suspiciously like Eli Manning? you know, how do you adjust for a alleged Hall of Fame quarterback walking on in disguise at college Hall of Fame is a little bit of a push which I mean I said alleged, you know I if you throw the word alleged in there, you can say whatever you want. That's the rule. It's exactly I mean, I argue I argue that point with my Giants friend Fan all the time about the merits of Eli Manning But yeah, if you were gonna put some analytics on it, you know, you would have to understand the velocity of his rocket arm Which I thought was pretty apparent from the video But it didn't seem like anyone from the Penn State. Well, I mean Franklin knew but yeah, like anyone. Oh Franklin knew Oh Yes, you gotta write you gotta watch the right clip. Yeah, so I watched the short one And what we're talking about is there's this this thing that Eli Manning did He did like a tryout of Penn State did a walk-on using like a weird like nose Makeup and stuff like that and like worked out as this guy named Chad Powers and Slares the clip that I saw The only clip you see a Franklin is Franklin yelling at the guy for running a five four and nine in the 40-yard dash And I was like, oh, wow, like he's he's given this guy this walk-on grief You know, I didn't realize that Franklin knew he knew so okay. Okay, go to Twitter search up Chad Powers and There is you want to you want to look for the one with Omaha Productions because it's God tells the bar story and yeah I think it gets into a little bit of the makeup artists that help Eli pull off being 26 year old Chad Powers home school by his mom and You know, there's an even longer one on YouTube, which is also worth checking out Anyways, this is a pretty good laugh. If you want some something entertaining Tonight, please go please go check that out Well, one thing I was curious about was like they're not curious about this guy who looks like super old trying to walk on a Quarterback, then I remember that Shawn Clifford is like also 26 effectively I think he's like 22 but like he's been there for a decade So I guess that probably makes it a little bit less weird to have this super old guy at quarterback I mean, that's kind of funny that a 22 year old guy is so old this day and age and in big-time college football, but Yeah, I mean it was fun. It was fun. So yeah, think fast run fast think fast run fast Think think well bet well, maybe we can go with that. We'll try to work that in here somewhere throughout the show for today We're gonna break down week four from a college football perspective Let you know what Ed's numbers are saying about this week and much more But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are here every weekday both on the covering the spread podcast feed and on the fangirl YouTube page So go subscribe there if you want video version But also check out the covering the spread podcast feed to get our NFL and college football podcast as they go live each and every day Twisted tea and fangirl have joined forces to bring you a one-of-a-kind Contest series that gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars inside credit Introducing twisted teas college football picks a sports betting focused contest series that is entirely free to play The contest is simple each college football game will be assigned money lines spread in total markets With aside points to each market like to do is make six selections based on these three markets and earn points for each correct Selection you made if at the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contest You'll be eligible for your share of site credit head over to fandewald.com Slash twisted tea picks one word fandewald.com slash twisted tea picks and make your picks and reminder Please drink responsively. Let's dig in now in to week number four We got some big conference games this week across all the big conferences But the problem is a lot of these teams been facing off in non-conference play for the most part thus far and One thing I've always liked about your model is that I feel like it does a very good job of accounting for Strength the schedule. So I want to go through that process for people who may be new listeners here What do you do to account for the wildly different schedules teams have played thus far when trying to Project how they perform against different levels of competition There's two different ways that that happens in my model. So my primary model right now just it essentially just teams based on how they performed in games and It accounts for strength schedule because it has some baseline expectation for how you are expecting those teams to play in that previous game so, you know the one interesting example when Vanderbilt Vanderbilt went out to to really beat Hawaii in week zero You know that made a pretty significant adjustment the markets, you know favorite Vandy I think I have a game closer to a pick. So you just get a huge adjustment in favor of Vandy you get a you know a huge adjustment against Hawaii and It's all relative to what I thought before that. I actually bring that up because that's an example of a game in which I'm not sure the adjustment was done correctly simply because why it has is terrible They're trying to rebuild Vandy is probably not particularly good as we've seen in the subsequent weeks so it doesn't always necessarily get it right, but that's basically what I'm trying to do the the strength of schedule so far is is baked into what we expect to be forehand and That's in the preseason prior. That's something I feel very good about I'm pretty sure the preseason prior is You know about as good as you can get heading into the season with the different components that I have in there And then you're adjusting that based on what you see and and you do have to do that in college football because Things change very rapidly and you need to adjust on teams Nebraska maybe being the the primary example there The other thing I do is I have an algorithm that adjusts for strength of schedule So this is something I developed based on my PhD work long long time ago And this is kind of how I got into sports analytics about a decade ago And you can do this with just about anything I started with margin victory in games and I use my algorithm to adjust for strength of schedule And you can do that for the first three point whatever weeks of the season Whatever you count week zero as and there was also kind of complete garbage It's just a lot of noise and points right now I was kind of shocked that Georgia was only second in those numbers because you know, they had really beaten up on Oregon and Oregon I really beaten up on BYU USC's the you know the best team in the nation according to that right now, which is probably not true Which is almost certainly not true. So there's there's a lot of noise in that I also have some numbers with success rate adjusted for strength of schedule and while it's still very noisy over a three-week sample It is less noisy. And so there are some insights there and we'll get into a couple of those today when we when we talk about these games It's interesting that you're like your PhD research actually like translates to sports betting I guess like it makes sense that like having a math PhD would be useful here, but I guess I didn't realize how Directly it translates the stuff you still use today Yeah learning a lot of math is always gonna be useful I try to tell us anyone that will listen to me You never know I mean, there's a long history of pure mathematics that a hundred years later ends up getting applied to something I was pretty lucky that I was able to you know do my work in a field That was heavily into randomness and applied probability and that kind of naturally worked itself into sports but yeah, I guess it's fortuitous and You know still taking advantage of it. So going back to the Vandy Hawaii example The assumption that the model makes then is that it's bi-directional where it was too low on Vandy too high on Hawaii And then as the season goes along it kind of can better suss out which direction it was wrong and kind of tailor that is that correct Nah, not really still bi-directional regardless. Yeah. Yeah. No I mean it assumes that if you're off on a game that you give equal contribution to both teams That may or may not be correct You can imagine if you know if you played a team that the quarterback gets injured in the first quarter sure Then that should change things, right? So Ultimately, I think the solution to that is going in and going through every game and making manual adjustments That's not something I'm doing yet with with my college football stuff. I just kind of let it run But there's always room for improvement That's what we talked about the NBA, you know doing that for accounting for which players were in which players are out How much the spread accounted for those players being in and out stuff like that But a lot tougher when there are 120 teams to account for it to Account for every single person who may miss being there So let's now dig into some games and talk about potentially some adjustments as you alluded to starting off with Clemson at Wake Forest Clemson seven and a half point favorite here total is 55 and a half and Clemson did cover Against Georgia Tech. So talking about the error there The point differential actually was probably in line with what you were expecting But the route to get there was odd offense didn't seem to be fully on Had they done enough the past two weeks to give you confidence in Clemson here? What's your feel on this game? No, uh Nothing Clemson has done is has given me a bunch of confidence who I don't remember who they were playing last week But it it was close until Clemson was able to pull away late. I think they covered still So on the scoreboard they look fine and some of my justice success rate numbers it is is not good and Talking to people who've dug into the tape a little bit more. It doesn't really seem like the offense has figured it out and you know, they're sticking with dj uber lele and that might not be the best decision and It's one of these things where you know, like when I look at my justice success rate The defense is actually not looking good. It's not top 10. It's actually more close to fps average And there I kind of say I kind of wave my hands and be like, you know, small sample size I'm not sure enough on the bed on the defensive side of the ball there. Let's let's wait a couple more games Uh to see what is going on with that But on offense, you know, you if there wasn't going to be a change You kind of would hope to expect to see it right now and I simply don't This game is uh, it's a little it's a little bit hard to model It's a little bit hard to handicap simply because we don't know what's going on with Clemson's offense We don't see the improvement in the number. So there's a big question mark there and wake forest, uh, the prior At least parts of the prior assume that san harman the quarterback was going to be gone for a significant part of the season He got injured. He had a blood clot issue in his leg and then all of a sudden he comes back after, you know, missing a week or two and You know, it's kind of hard for You know the model to kind of catch up to that right? So it's certainly picking up on things that hey, you know The offense is doing a lot better The model has Clemson by nine. I'm not sure I necessarily believe I'm not sure I would I would not bet this game based on that I think uh, this is one that you want to trust the markets on and You know Clemson by seven and a half sounds about right. I wouldn't be surprised if uh, wake forest wins this game We talked to parker, uh Parker a couple weeks ago about how his model adjusts for changes in coaching staffs and we talked about this a lot Last year with north western where they lost my kank wits and the defense collapsed Do you think there's a shot? We're seeing that with Clemson with Brett Venable is being gone now because obviously he's the best there was the best defense coordinator in football Do you think that could be an impact here or is it too soon to tell and you don't want to react into that assumption? Yeah, I think it's too soon to tell from everything that I read preseason They have an immense amount of talent on the defensive side of the ball And we expect them to be a top five unit like they have been every single season For as long as anyone can remember So, you know, is it going to fall off without menables? Maybe but let's let's wait until week six to to make that assessment Yeah, well to see uh Parker Fleming was the guy we talked to at stats of war on twitter. He was talking about the Changes in coaching staffs back then. Let's dive in now the college game day game of this week It is florida at Tennessee Tennessee attended the half point favorite total of 62 and a half and Florida did get that huge win back in week one, but they struggled since then so ed When you look at them when you go at they done so far, can they bounce back here and cover a 10 and a half point spread against Tennessee? I think it's a tall order. I mean, they've really looked pretty terrible in the subsequent games They lost to kentucky where the offense had some anemic success rate Uh, which is just really not what you want when you have a quarterback like Anthony Richardson Uh, and they were only able to beat south florida by three points. I think they were a 23 point favorite or something like that so Uh, my models really downgraded them Since the beginning of the season since that utah win I think the jury is still a little bit out on Tennessee. Uh, they beat up on a couple of bad mac teams and then needed overtime to beat pit a team that I I wasn't particularly high on this pre season. So i'm not exactly sure what's going on there and also in that pit game You know keaton's flow has got hurt and the backup played for a significant part of that game as well You know the numbers really like tennessee's offense um, and hendon hooker's been been pretty good and uh, I don't know. I think the jury's still out about their defense But you know when you put it all together My model has tennessee by 13 in this game and the action network said this line opened up at tennessee minus four and a half Which I cannot personally verify. I know there were eight and a halves Uh on sunday Um, I I know that I bet a little bit of nine and a half. I would still lean Uh, I would still lean towards tennessee at minus 10 and a half, but the number's getting high Probably gets even a little bit higher. Uh, but probably a lot of value is not There's certainly not as much value now as it was on sunday Now it's not that tough when I know that there's a better number available previously to like to bet into it But but if it's still showing two and a half points of value like that's not a bad number Is it a hesitance to think that the model is overreacting to florida's rough couple weeks or What kind of is it just knowing you had a better number earlier? I mean florida clearly has talent and so maybe they come and decide to play and then tennessee's defense Looks more like they did the second half of the year last year instead of the first half of the year Uh, you know all kinds of things come into play. I mean, I would still lean towards tennessee at this number um But obviously don't love it as much as I did earlier Right for sure. Okay, so let's finish up here with wisconsin at ohio state ohio state now an 18 and a half point favorite That number is at 19 some places as well So could keep on moving it was 17 and a half yesterday afternoon now 18 and a half total is 56 and a half and Wisconsin had the stumble against washington state They did bounce back with a route last week, but it seems like the betting public skeptical Or at least enthusiastic about ohio state. Uh, what's your view of this match up here with the number now at 18 and a half in favor ohio state ohio state came into the season with a lot of questions on the defensive side of the ball and The success rate numbers actually like that side of the ball so far Still a small sample size, but it looks like they're at least going to be better on that side of the ball and You know the unit that actually ranks the worst for ohio state is their pass offense Uh right now they're 59th in in the country and adjusted success rate and that's clearly wrong That's clearly a small sample size and a lot of that is like they didn't really have a good performance against Notre Dame Notre Dame we expect to have a good defense, but they completely Like suck the next week against marshal and so, you know between those two games. That's really Screwing up what we're seeing in the adjusted success rate numbers And as much as I tell you that these will converge faster to the truth than than anything else Uh, you know, it's probably going to take till week six to to really figure this out Wisconsin, you know, obviously had that terrible game, you know losing to washington state You know the defensive numbers don't look good right now. They look more like fbs average Which is not what we expect out of wisconsin They've they've usually always been great on that side of the ball. The front seven is particularly good. It looks like they They used a lot they use the transfer portal to fill in slots in the secondary and at the quarterback position and um You know, that's that's not a good place to have your weakness in the secondary against Ohio state. So You know, my number actually puts this at 20 over 20 So maybe a little bit value at 18 and a half um, obviously it was better when it was 17 and a half earlier this week, but uh It's always uh, you know, we'll talk about this later in another game, but When when you're looking at a big spread like this Obviously it's easier if you believe in the offense to to want to lay that number and uh, yeah, you're more likely to do it because because we We know how state has pretty explosive offense and and we do expect to see that And how much do you think that the jackson smith and jigba injury may have played a role in the issues Ohio state had because it seems like in that when he when he first got hurt It did seem to have a big impact. Um, obviously they've rebounded nice healthy as well Do you think that that could have an impact too and kind of dragging things down for Ohio state Potentially indicate that there's more value than your numbers may indicate on the 18 and a half at this point Yeah, I mean, I think it's always Going to be bad to lose the most talented receiver in the nation Yeah, but on the other hand, I just don't think Ohio state played that well Yeah, I think I think that would they just didn't play that well and if they play up to their ceiling They're going to be just fine Okay, so as of right now some value still on a tennessee minus 10 and a half and a bit of value Not as much on ohio state minus 18 and a half versus wisconsin for this week Let's open up the board here ed. Where else you see in value across college football me for Yeah, i'm actually going to stay home in and over here and um I actually like maryland to cover 17 points here So we have a michigan team that has looked good Quote unquote good, but they have played You know two of the bottom five teams in the nation and in connecticut and hawaii and a colorado state team that You know is not cracking the top 100 um So I you know and I think like as good as they looked as good as Well, basically as good as they looked the competition Goes up significantly this week against maryland This is a team that kind of had some question marks on defense But we know that you know, we expected them to be pretty good on offense and You know the wide receiver the receiver room should be Probably the second best unit in the big 10 behind behind ohio state. Um, you know My model has really adjusted them up and I think the main reason why like maryland in this game is is just how big The number is it's 17, you know, my model has the closer to 14 and I think it's going to be hard for a michigan team. I mean michigan's going to have to show a lot on offense to Cover that kind of number could they do it sure and I'd be happy to be wrong about this But at the end of the day like I'm not sure that this receiving group is great I think they're I you know, I think the receivers have been okay over the last couple years and I think they need to be I think we need to see more from the receiver groups and from jade and macarthur For for me to believe that they're going to cover 17 points. I think michigan wins this game But I can kind of see it being closest at halftime, you know, maybe they pull away But um, yeah, I'll take maryland plus points here You think that the mccarthy factor in this is kind of lending itself towards a tighter game because it seems like With the way they tend to play when he's in there. It's a bit more I don't want to say it's not conservative, but it does seem as though it's more conducive to Unders to lower scoring games that's less conducive to a bigger spread. Do you think that a mccarthy led offense is Better for this kind of situation because it'll keep things tighter. What's your view of of this kind of new style of offense they've got I mean, I'm not sure it's more conservative under mccarthy. I mean, I think I have seen them go deep quite a bit, you know with mccarthy I mean mccarthy has more upside. It's pretty interesting. He was 101 to win the heisman Uh preseason took five snaps week one and went up to 60 to one to win the heisman and at some point I think last week he was 20 to one. Yeah, he's kind of fallen down a little bit since then Um, but he's 30 right now Yeah, yeah, so he fell down. I think I think I saw him at 25 on fan duel at some point. Um but Someone out there was betting him before we saw many snaps this year and he clearly hasn't high upside Yeah, and honestly, it's not like I think he's looked pretty good And I think, you know of anyone that's going to adapt to playing against big competition It's going to be him because he just clearly has the physical capabilities in terms of the leiticism in terms of his big arm I need to see this from the receivers. Um, I mean, I've been talking for you Even even all through last year that I just I'm not sure that michigan's receivers are that good And you know, I think for them to cover 17 points, the receivers need to be good and we'll see if that happens Yeah, I think I mean the thought process in mccarthy might be that he's because he's more likely to run It might keep the clock running more which is conducive to a slower game overall Slower games tend to be conducive to more, you know, tighter spreads lower scoring games Even if he's more efficient and like better That could be the thought process there for maryland potentially covering a bigger spread Just because if the clock runs more often that could potentially Benefit them as well But we haven't had we haven't seen him have to run much because the scores have been so lopsided I'm curious What those numbers look like in a tighter potentially tighter game on saturday as well Also fandal did post the ohiova stavers in michigan spread for november. Do you have a guess? Have you seen this yet? Yeah, I mean I was looking at my numbers. I think right now In columbus, I'd probably make ohiova state like 11 or 12 points favorite 10 and a half right there. Yeah So, yeah, I'd probably take a nibble at 10 and a half Ohio state at this point Especially if you think that they cover big against wisconsin I think now would be the time to get that potentially before we see movement If you think that ohio state covers this week in michigan does not kind of thinking the way your your model works Adjustments and stuff like that. It'd be better to bet it now If you think both those events occur Yeah, I mean, I mean we could be sitting here in a week and talking about oh well I was wrong about michigan the receivers are great and they they covered the number But I will also say, you know, I was talking to eddie walls yesterday in my podcast. He's a professional sports better and his uh His knowledge of college football is is immense and it was interesting to hear him say that he actually didn't think that michigan's secondary was that good And I've actually been under the assumption that that might have been one of the stronger parts of the defense And they certainly have been playing well. I'll be it against, you know, pretty bad competition But after that conversation, I went back and looked and I was like, oh, you know One of the guys I thought was back is actually not back. Yeah Cornerback vinson gray. So I completely goofed on that in my podcast yesterday. So please call me out on that And they are playing a converted wide receivers or slot corner and You know a couple guys that a couple corners that were back last year, but also no dax hill and you know It remains to be seen who's going to rush the passer against An offense with a pulse. So That's another reason. Um, I like this game is I mean, that's another reason You know that I like maryland and I believe in my numbers here, you know They they have a pretty good receiving core and and uh, I think that's secondary. I'll get a test That's another reason to be correlated to the Ohio State game because of the receiving talent They have an Ohio State the necessity they'll have in rushing the passer So those bets could potentially be correlated as well With the uh, Ohio State minus 10 and a half for the game later on this year That's all we got here for today on the college football version of covering the spread But eddie we're talking about your podcast. I'm talking about a guest you had on there Where people find that and all the rest of your work Yeah, so uh catch my podcast at the football analytic show. I had eddie walls who's a pro sports better college football mba and uh, he's also works with raz ryan angle sports um, which is is one of Only two places that you should ever consider buying picks from One of only two places that's ever done it Really the right way and it was I honestly kind of intimidating talking to someone with such an immense knowledge of college football I think my knowledge of college football is pretty good, but uh Yeah, the man really knows the stuff. It was pretty clear Why he's a pro After talking with them. So yeah, honestly great conversation talked a bunch about music at the end as well so check that out at the football analytic show anywhere you get your podcasts and then also, um Check out my uh sports betting email newsletter. You can get that at thepowerrank.com One of the things I write about games that I bet but I also we also I also put together I'm still doing we because every regards you seven nuggets on saturday but it's mostly me these days and It was interesting to see other media organizations. Uh use the term nuggets recently So I was texting with edward about that, but uh catching on I try on saturday like not to make it about me I certainly put links to podcasts that i've done Put links to this show as well But uh, I try to make that about other people and what other people are thinking So I think people really like that. So check that out at thepowerrank.com You mentioned the football analytic show. I've got my football analytic show mug Uh, I made an appearance in my wife's instagram story. I believe last week I made a cappuccino in our new espresso maker and so the football analytic show mug made an appearance that A cameo there. So it's going worldwide is very exciting. I think it was the story I'm not sure how to check a story on instagram. I've been told you can do it somehow But I don't know instagram very well. So yeah, you gotta like click you got to click on the logo Someone someone someone younger than me was showing me this I think I posted a thing accidentally last week when I was at a work event as my story when I meant to post As like a post. Yeah, I don't know. I'm old. I'm like I'm outdated if it's not twitter. I can't use it. So We're figuring that out. But the the football analytic show is becoming instagram famous. So Remember me when you get famous from all these instagram stories ed Find ed on twitter at the power rank. Check out his podcast the football analytic show and check out his E-known newsletter by going to thepowerrank.com. I am on twitter not instagram I am there, but don't bother. I'm on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s tomorrow We're breaking down nfl week number three with ryan williams going to be a blast We got player props coming up friday as well. Should be good rest of the week We'll talk to you all then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network