 The following is a presentation of TFNN the Tiger Technician Hour with your host Basil Chapman call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648. Hi everyone Basil Chapman here Tiger Technicians Hour Monday October the 4th and October is starting to be very interesting big move on Friday from below 3375 785 in the Dow bam goes right to the look this right on the daily chart on the left side the week in the middle monthly on the right goes right to the 14 period exponential moving average and it gets repelled back to when the tad over then it got repelled so basically what we're doing for subscribers to an opening call we went along a position and the diamonds on Friday but only as a trade because we're anticipating at some point this week we probably going to go back to the short side and with that said so far we're down 40 we were up a little bit we went to 34,410 just above the nine-page little pink nine-page moving average and now we below that this is a real struggle and the more work I said to subscribers to an opening call in the overview that I did I do a webinar on Saturday or Sunday it was in Saturday this week for subscribers to an opening call and I said we're going to go through things but there are a lot of stocks that are very interesting that I'd like to get but not yet there's really little that I actually want to buy I'd rather just go with an index and they have a stop so we take a profit and boom get out of it and in the meantime back at the ranch what we're looking at is the MACD is holding quite nicely in the data look the histograms improving but the pink nine-page moving average is way under the 14 there's going to be a real struggle to go positive that's number one number two is the stochastics pulling back is a 38% and the on balance volume showing no strength whatsoever so all I can say is that I'm anticipating that this arch formation the pattern that I call in the Chapman way methodology I always look at basically three three forms of movement one is a straight line up or down two is a cup formation that could be a V where you're going from one point down in the back and how you deal with that left side high is very important and number three is where it makes an arch or an inverted V and sometimes like today you get that single leg A to the upside you'll see it here in the one minute chart look single leg A up after making a peak D it pulls back at about 850 this morning around about 4340 come down down down all of a sudden pop to the upside and that's a single leg A up and it fails and now it's struggling to try to find any support whatsoever that's the E-mini so now what we're looking at is this arch formation which often fails at a peak A or B the second first or second peak and comes down we're going to be watching this really closely my anticipation is that we get some form of where did that go some form that it is some form of the lowercase h they can become a lowercase amma so that it goes sideways and basically a rectangle formation and then takes out the bottom it often does that we're going to be watching that very closely all right back to our story let's get out of that right there so the parameters are very simple a close below 34200 that's just 110 points lower than we are right now says a really good chance that it's going to fail or struggle and make just a really weak push to the upside if I later on in the day the down is trading up about 60 points or more and holding and you can get a little bit of a bounce in the cues or the IWM muscle 2000 that will help but that's not happening right now let's go to the SMP and you can see the weekly chart I put it down arrow at this peak G at 35,631 we've had seven weeks six weeks this will be the seventh week below the all-time high the monthly chart is made a peak D does that mean at peak D the fourth highest peak other things can happen that's when we usually get very cautious this is the down monthly chart we'll see what happens make it real simple anytime in the next week or two the close below 33,300 says uh-oh probably going all the way back down to the low that was made back in what was in June at 30 33,271 so this is going to be ready 33,271 wait my way that was the low the week of the 18th of June so that says a close below 33,000 at any point that would be really negative and we're at 34,455 so that's quite a way off on the upside a closing weekly price above 34,650 would be very good and say yep there's that rectangle or arch formation let's go to the SMP SMP at this particular point week down 26 at 43,30 there's that lowercase h it failed it took out the left side low of 4305 back on the what was it the 18th of September big rally to the Jaffa we've inside track repellent zone gets repells at a peak a goes to peak a minus whoops I forgot to make that a minus because it took out the left side starting point and always becomes a minus you have to start over and it went below it went to 42 88.52 on Friday tried to rally couldn't even make it to the ninth year moving average and kaboom we're down a game today this is really very weak action and that weekly chart has gone from a cell signal I should have said it's probably a cell mode because it closed underneath the nine-period moving average but that nine-period moving average is still way above the 14-period moving average I'm just giving it a little leeway what I can say is sliding doesn't have to close but a slide below 42.75 says uh-oh weekly cell mode we've got time and price on our hands into October and the monthly chart is only in a leg B we always expected these four higher peaks in a buy mode this is a buy mode in the monthly at some point we should get to leg C and then leg D up nice move suddenly and sudden suddenly some somebody did some buying look at this on the one-minute chart boom all of a sudden you got a little spike to the upside so you've seen a lot of those a lot of those are felt I think there's a little bit of a leverage here towards the upside oh I need to do something else let me just show you before I forget the QQQ the 354.38 low of yesterday after 382.78 I mean that's a 30 point down move and so that's it's almost like a nine percent move in the Q's that any x100 and they were the leaders and that's the big thing that I'm talking about all the time I yes they say higher yields do affect and impact negatively the tech stocks but you know the index 100 is made up of other things as well it isn't just tech stocks so I'm looking at this and I'm thinking that they do for a really good timeout this is a timeout and they don't have to go all that much deeper there from here there's a lot of support in the 350s but a break below 350 says oh now we're into something a lot more serious so just in the meantime think of it as a big consolidation in the index 100 IWM the Russell 2000 those small caps are trying to find some support they also have those smaller banks they have the smaller this oil service sector but even here it's a struggle it's just a sideways strut in fact it kind of looks like the gold chart look sideways move look at the gold sideways move this is making lower lows and low highs just down one right now 1757 I just think that gold is in play for intraday trading but nothing yet bigger than that I wouldn't be surprised if there is something into gold just a little later on if we start to see the gas solar as well as solar is up just a little bit stuck in the lower range but if we start to see the Bitcoin while it was having a big move here I was still on that the Bitcoin is small position we are short the QQQs along the down shorter so we're back back in a moment because we want to look at high fake profit when looking cutal when looking bonds will be back are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio Tom O'Brien is here to help Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC Tom O'Brien founded DFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you Tom's daily market newsletter market 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eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN educating investors call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 hi folks we're back this is Monday the 4th of October the Dow is now down 35 estimate he's down 25 and we're looking at Bitcoin boy Bitcoin is up 90 and a really yeah these moves in Bitcoin are not for the the the the fickle hearted because I'll look at this it goes from 53,125 a peak D in the Chapman we remember D the fourth highest peak is where other things can happen wow the other things happen it had a range of 53,125 and a low of 43,840 then it gets stuck in the range and it does dreaded H pattern goes under it over it under it and then out of the blue the second H pattern is successful one off the 200-speed moving areas whoop the rocket ship back up again has a spectacular move between Thursday and Friday game from the 41,000 to the 48,000 here it is a 48,510 but if you look at the weekly chart that really tells you what's going on it's kind of stuck in the range but very much in play for some people with much bigger moves than gold now it is trading at 48,900 510 and if you're looking at gold is trading at 1755 I would say that there's a little difference in price but if you're looking at patterns percentage wise you've got big moves here but the unfortunate thing about gold is it's making this arch formation it is holding way above the low that was made back around about the ninth or so of August in the below 1680 with a big move to a peak D in the daily chart at about 1838 ish and then it comes down with these H patterns it hasn't had that big spike but if you look at the XLF excuse me in play towards the upside S&P financial spider fund why because of this look the TLT yields are going up as the TLT bonds are price is going down from 151s down to the 153s is trading 144 36 right now and because the because the year the rates are going up it's helping the banks now it's not the end all and be all but it is an important component in terms of the bank now if we start to see the XLF once we start to see a slowing economy and we really should see that because let's face it inflation kind of slows things down the the shipping situation is really bad containers if you just can't get the goods then all of a sudden what happens to Christmas what happens to you know all these different aspects that you're looking at for the holiday season well if the XLF because you'll suddenly have a balance and the XLF sudden or for whatever reason if the XLF starts to trade under 37 or in the whole of October actually trades under 36 I suspect that's going to be because of fear and that'll create some fear in the banking area and that's where I think we might see gold move higher because gold at this particular point it needs did I just do that I did that was a mistake just went to the wrong thing there it is we're back okay good oops we're not back got it back yep there is so what we're looking at here is if the XLF actually trades into the 39 30 to 39 55 area that's probably going to be because years or so to pull back even further so we've got this we've got everything all our longs that we've held and we're making new highs just recently we expected them to pull back taking real nice gains kept core positions and all I can say is that you've got to keep your eye on a couple of things let's just go to Crudo right now and see what Crudo is breaking out is this a brand new is this old F or brand new B well the magnetic hasn't shown a single sign of turning down the stochastic's flattered 83% over 80% I like that's very good the unbalanced volume is suggesting that it's a little toppy but a little toppy just means it could pull back some so I normally do this I go I'm a little conservative in this case I'll say with the F and if it pulls back and then makes another high I'll say it's probably not a G probably going to be a G-C in the meantime there's nothing to do if one is long anything to do with the Crudo so far this is acting so beautifully now if you look at the monthly chart that break out in the Chathamway falling exformation what is that that's a lower highs a much lower lows and then it breaks out to the upside this is suggesting that there could be a one at least a one-to-one to the upside going from the well this is already fair because it's $7.51 for Crudo that's because we had that terrible April of last year action where we went actually the futures went minus but let's just say there's get it's a Harvard there's a move from 38 to the breakout level of 60 so you've got yourself 15 points 15 points from the breakout here of 65 takes you to the to the 77 area that's where we are and this is a leg D so anything above this starts to say that the left side high which is the higher in a continuous contract of October of 2018 and that was an 86 20 remember this gets smoothed out so the price gets changed the date the pattern everything else is perfect there's nothing wrong with that the moving averages but the price gets a change so that high we will go to the high the current high which is at we're at 78 38 to the high of the day but we're looking at the high of October and that was an 86 20 so I would say that left side high would actually be ace up and I at least an upside target over the coming weeks and we're going to be watching that very closely what's the support there's huge support between the 72 and 69 area if there's whatever reason it is it suddenly turns down so this is a very important moment now that does down 165 recipes down 37 are we stopped out of our long position not yet no we have we got in right of the low on my Friday so we have a little cushion but as I say we are still short the QQQ's and the QQQ right now has it taken out the left side low of Friday yes we below that we below your Friday's low we're now 353.92 this is not good when you don't have leadership and I needed to go to high grade copper high grade copper we're doing all these things because it's Monday beginning of the week we want to know what's going on I guess this is so fast and high grade copper is doing well within a trading range it's actually up to date 0.07 and 4.263 all I can say is that if copper is holding well this is an international economic icon we've always used it and it shouldn't change and if I go to oh let me just do this now I'm going to go to this I sure I forgot subscribers of opening call for God on Friday I sent it out this morning I'll do it right now this is my weekly where we go now this is my weekly chart of the three yields that's the 10 year that the 30th 10 year and 5 year as well as with the ice is the temper forest GZF as well as the Philadelphia housing index and look at this nice U turn in the 30 year the 10 year the TNX is a brown one and the 5 year FVX this is actually leg C already in the in the 5 years only a leg B in the weekly but if we go above last week's high in the yield 21.03 that's 2.103 one penny above extends leg B one penny above the 10 year which the high last week was 15.67 you got a 15.68 1.568 and that extends leg B as well let me just double check 11 to 13.85 3.86 yes I'll be back in a moment bowser chap and doubts on 210 SP's down 42 little problem here I would say I'll be back are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den trading room only at tfnn.com the Tigers Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world subscribers to the Tigers Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with 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the trend continues higher on a shorter-term basis I think we're really stuck in the trading band in the yields and that's all you need to think of that is a trading band that is right now at the Chapman Wave inside track repellent zone and if it does close any day this is a weekly chart so any day above 2.155 that's quite a breakout and then it could go all the way back in a cup formation back to the previous side at about 2.5 but wait a minute the weekly chart of wood the eyeshares of the global timber and forestry ETF had an all-time high of 98.98 back in something like May and then it pulls back sharply that's a straight line down and then it makes a little cup formation the dreaded age successful because it went under it but it closed above that says you can rally towards the previous high of the arch if you go above it that's impressive but you've got to stay above and in this case it went one week above one week below and then it came all the way back it hasn't made a lower low but today's trading up 14 cents at 80s 85.11 so keep an eye on this because if it starts to trade any day of the week below can I read that below 84 man it's at 85.11 that's going to be a big negative and it should go lower than that and if it trades up into the 90 areas at 85.11 right now that'll be very impressive now look at the Philadelphia housing index because the dreaded age it took it out on the left side it's got another two bars to go before we make a decision about it but so far if that 444.15 low of the week of the 23rd of July after making an all-time high of 538.36 back in May I think yep May the week of the 14th this is a negative not a big negative but it is a negative for the housing sector all right let's get out of this and you just say save a closed workspace don't forget to save yes to all because we want to keep saving as much as you can now question I had well first there's a number of questions let me just go backwards yeah the last question I had with Shardia as the first question was fang diamond back energy ink it is just about to make its leg D in the monthly chart above 102.53 the high today's around number 102 I suspect it'll do that then it might get a little toppy but so far there's nothing you have to say that there's a change of trend the MACD stochastic and the daily all fantastic the weekly did cross positive it's very good it's not great but it's good the prices at a recovery high but I'd like to see the stochastic not at 64% hold these stated 80% or higher so so far there's a really good price action no question about leg D in the daily let me do the FXI because this covers the questions that I had new low this is now a multi month low the last we're at 37.59 the major low was back in 2020 March where it went to 33.11 and then it's screened to 54 let's say 54.53 February of 2021 and now it's done the arch formation remember patents just repeat over and over and over arch formation with a lower lower low than last month and we've just begun August now I might have to read and renotate this this could very well could be e-slash a f-slash b and now we're looking at g-stacy in the weekly chart and look at this dreaded age pattern unsuccessful in the daily chart and a new low at 37.59 this is just real quickly because I always get asked about it Baba this is any Baba training at a low and a new monthly actually it's at a new multi-year low the low from January of 2019 of 129 83 screens up into the 300s peak D remember how many peak these have we seen how important this D is and it comes plunging down trough a trough B legs see to the downside at 138 not good at all and by do just do this quickly by do also turning down but it's holding way better than the others but it started to fill the gap and that low that was made back on the 19th 19th of August at 135.49 went to a peak D in the daily just at 100 just under 170 and now it's down at 145 this is not good action not good action at all so let's go to I wanted to show you the dollar the dollar was pulling back is pulling back again 93 74 down point 31 had a really good move to a peak E in the daily leg E because we have to wait all week before we see if it's taking out the 9450 high and so far it's 93 73 it's this is a pretty it has pretty severe pullback when it keeps making higher highs and higher lows let's put that together with your EUR USD we're looking at that rally commensurate rally so this will have in the chapway falling exclamation lower highs and much lower lows that is suggesting to me that at 1.16 1.16 30 up point 0 0 3 7 this is acting a nice balance is really a balance because I think the dollar but basically is still very strong so it needs to break above the 1.16 5 area to test the 1.16 8 9 period moving average but that's not the issue the issue is this downtrend line the chapway falling exclamation with a chapel wave inside track repellent zone you want to see within a week from today a week from today is the following week if there is a push above 1.71 you'll see a commensurate slide in the dollar that's going to be important USD JPY which usually goes in the same direction this is dollar not the same price action or percentage is down a tad at one at down a 13 at 110.94 this is a single a but I treated as if it's an E slash B it went to a higher high than that high that was made way back in July July of this year the week of the second we went to 111.65 it went much higher than that on Thursday it went to 1.1 so 112.07 and now it's pulling back but the trend is the weekly chart is good because it broke above and now it's back into the rectangle but look at the monthly chart monthly charge got a peak C a leg C and the technicals are really good and it says suggest to me that the yen is holding pretty well and should move higher now I need to do this did that did that did that did that did that oh dollar DE do w this is the Dow Jones German it's not like the DAX index the chart looks exactly the same price is different because this is the Dow Jones Germany stock index so it has a different price level it's trading in 444 and it's gone underneath the 200 period exponential moving average never a good sign and yes the other thing the GB do w this is great group made a pp in the monthly chart and it's in the sideways range it's holding okay but thanks thanks that's gonna be a big I'll be back in a moment dozen are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger real estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying 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including the possible loss of principle the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four-side fund services LLC don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger TV that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger TV Oh folks we're back don't forget today that every comes on 11 so this is a there's a change in says just a scheduling the same players different different time slots and it's a gold is not up 10 I might be a little delayed this is the action you want to see when the market suddenly starts to pull back and you begin to see a particular area that becomes favored you want durability you want sustainability so the fact that it was weak and it went down to 1747 on the continuous contract and now it's 20 points higher than that says watch gold and you know it's funny not the gold stocks are lagging very badly there are they are prepared to move up if that I move down but I'm really looking at gold and if you're looking at the GDX you can see that yes there's a nice move it's up 31 cents at 29.64 is this the start of a bigger move I'm quite prepared I would like very much to go into you know we're we're choosing sectors that we think are weak or strong and that's that's the way we're playing it right now and we've got a lot of cash for subscribers from opening call we've been building up cash position for quite some time more importantly we want to have some trades as well as some position plays for this particular shaky period there's no question about it remember I talked about the dark news cloud cover let me just put this here for a second right here look dark news cloud cover we've been in that we've had our second arch formation this is the first time we've had anything quite as deep as this on the second iteration and it's lowered down this is not a good sign at all that's number one the other is I don't want to do it now we've had reversal signals all over the show so Dow is the strongest of the of the different sectors but that that'll weaken because it's got some some areas that could turn soft so I'm being very careful here so the GDX is a potential play I think your risk now is more that you get in and stalls it doesn't do anything but I'm thinking that yeah I'd like to see it in play I'd like to see the GDX trading at 30.63 Ohio within my Tuesday or Wednesday even sooner but Tuesday or Wednesday what are we trading at 2966 right now that to me would say ah now there's a chance you can start to pull some of the gaps and at least you can have a decent kind of countertrend rally as this channel or Chapman falling exformation to the downside right there and expands on the downside that's it so what that means that if you break above it if you close above 30.29 it's called a 30.30 in the next two sessions and of course this could all happen very quickly if it does that instead of closing out at 29 it actually moves up then you can get a one-to-one to the upside and you can get a move to the 3120s quite quickly so I'm saying this is maybe risk reward I think this is kind of the way I look at it right now that's what I wanted to do oh I had a question could I look at it wait the question is in video hi there's only video do we wait for dust to settle or nibble here for long-term hold I wouldn't touch this at this particular point if you think that this chip phenomenon is just oh you know it was very selective in the sense that it really impacted the kind of chips that are you know Dave White can explain beautifully I'll just do my best the chips that the the automobile companies require of the simplest the older kind so it's saying to the fabs will you build new old-fashioned fabs for the auto industry who don't need the very sophisticated chips or should they move into the 21st century get sophisticated chips and wait for the new products to come online and then change all your mechanisms the electronic mechanisms to be able to be conducive to the new upgraded chips not the old ones that's the issue so the whole thing with the automobile industry is actually a lot more serious than has been that I've seen discussed but you can look and you can see the general motors is up because it's been a being right here and do that again that's being hoisted upon a lot of people but I would say to you that this is a big spike to a leg E at 50 4.63 up a dollar 50 looking out I think yes general motors is doing the right things in many cases but I think that this gap is gonna be filled in because there's a problem you you try to get a car and you have to pay full price and then they say to you they give you a great trade-in but they they're slapping on they say these are the only cars around and they're gonna load the cars with as much as they can so this is a big issue going forward look at a and which is the a and as the what a nation Inc went to a peak D it's pulling back now there's this hold or just there's this start to slide it's gonna tell us a lot what a nation I don't want to get involved in this right now I do want to go to another queso Nvidia SMH is in the semiconductor area estimators are making a new low that is off to Friday's low 249 35 was a low round about the 1920th of last month spirals up to a peak E at 278 276.69 all-time high plunges dreaded H pattern failure and plunges down this is serious stuff for the semiconductors the next thing I want to look at question came in can I look at if oh wait right CLF CLF is Cleveland Cliffs Cleveland Cliffs Inc flatball steel iron or pellets take over but I took over AK steel which we once had and now what we're looking at is it's really struggling of the 200-period moving average so this is just saying to me you have to put this into the category of U.S. steel down that looks the same thing at the bottom SLX which is the steel ETF looks the same just have patience it's almost like Nvidia just the wrong moment in the wrong industry just at this particular point it'll be back in favor but at this particular point have patience I think you're gonna get some fantastic buys in these things just be patient so I don't know why you're looking at different areas for instance Mars which is the mosaic company phosphate and potash new recovery actually there's no I'm not sure if it's an all-time high but a new recovery high trading at 38 put 18 up 38 cents this is nice so what why are we seeing phosphate and potash in play why are we seeing high-grade copper holding well because I think intrinsically there are other things going on in the economy that are kind of working and if you're looking at the home depots HD Home Depot peak F in the daily chart peak D in the weekly chart of this no new recovery high this is saying it's very selective right now it is extremely selective and if I go on to what was the question I had right there did that did that oh the question came in could I look at myrna which you looked at on Friday and had a huge decline from that peak D weekly chart in the dreaded age pattern yeah I'm just gonna say to you this is very selective you've got to be very selective I don't see any reason why holding cash cheated as a position holding cash is a position a legitimate position that says I don't see anything I want to buy right now I prefer to be in a cash position because after the drubbing that's so many of these really fantastic companies has they've taken there will be fabulous buys I'd rather be buying strength the catcher falling life was beefy golfing the dead used to say you want to buy a falling catch a falling life I'll send you the metal drugs go back in a moment goes down 340 years sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market 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Petersburg, Florida your investment can be anywhere from 100,000 to 500,000 you want to make 1000 per year on 100,000 dollars invested or 7000 per year on a secured Tiger first mortgage the Tiger first mortgage program may be just the program for you the Tiger first mortgage program pays 7% per year paid monthly for more information you can call 877-518-9190 that's 877-518-9190 this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com things came in just yet so the question how come the DB agricultural fund is moving so nicely but thank you for it yeah so we are long subscribed we've been long from 30.77 we've just taken a tad off at 14.93 straight right that 19.45 this is the DB agricultural fund so it's testing the upside highs 19.50 they made it by two cents a new recovery high so look at this wheat that's wheat is trading in leg B to the upside very nice move but wait a minute soybeans down at the lows not good at all they're looking at corn as we say here just about to make a leg D in the day but not great but it's also sugar SB which is going sideways it's really wheat that's wheat that is doing the whole thing here corn complain the DBA I think would pull back a little bit in fact is holding really nicely that's good another question came in oh the VIX index yeah the VIX index this is a big clue if the VIX index trading right now 24.58 all day holds strongly and you see the Dow and the S&P are trading in the last hour towards their lows watch that VIX because if it suddenly spirals into the 24.80s rather than suddenly pulls back and sees a bounce in the market but it goes to the 24.68 to 24.78 area what was the high on Friday the high isn't that funny that the high on Friday was so high 24.89 what if it goes to 24.93 at any point today has just going to suggest that this this market can't take a breather to the upside and that's the reason why we're raising the raising the cash we just that you've got to have some cash around for those like the Nvidia like the buys that you want to get and that semiconductor index making new lows again from Friday's low I don't like it so see you due to a very conservative coming up be very careful out there I think if you take your buys coming along just hook up a nice cash decision see you due to Larry and then you've got to think a strong think we've got Steve, but they have a tough check out more people on the day 27. See you tomorrow have a great day