 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaccesotrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody's having a great weekend. If you live in the northeast, you're kind of like me. We're sitting here just watching the raindrops complete washout for Saturday and Sunday. So hopefully you guys are keeping yourself busy, looking at charts, preparing yourself for the week, and trying to have some fun in the process. So let's talk about it, right? Let's talk about the market. Before we do, if you are brand new to us, we invite you to come aboard, right? Spend 15 minutes a day with us, like, share, subscribe, help the channel out. We'll try to help you out, navigate this journey on a day-to-day basis. But most important is via unbiased technical analysis. So let's talk about the week. The highlight of the week was the anticipated FOMC meeting that was held on Wednesday. On the surface, they held rates in check, which kind of, you know, at least initially told people, well, maybe this inflation thing is under control, and then Powell started the Q&A as we talked about on the weekend, on the Wednesday video. And he started talking about, obviously, a window with potential more heights. We already knew that that wasn't going to be anything to surprise, but the market did not want to hear that. And the market started selling wealth pretty aggressively. And all this has been going on, if you guys remember, we've been going over and under the 50-day moving average for about a month. In the last five days, we clearly got below the 50-day, started building below the 50-day, and now we are very, very close, and we'll talk about the ramifications here in a few minutes. We're very, very close losing this whole big macro channel, this rise in support on the Qs. But the most important part was it was the fear aspect, right? And a lot of traders still remember 2022, when they started 2022, buying the dip below the 50-day moving average, and they kept on dipping and dipping and dipping. You saw some stocks like UPSC, I was using UPSC as an example. Some stocks are down 70%, 80% off their highs, and it really brought back a lot of really bad memories for perma-bulls. And when you look at how the technology space, especially performed this week or underperformed this week, it's really kind of a highlighted sign of what potentially could happen next if the bulls don't defend very, very key levels. When you look at the final tally, you have the SPX down 3% for the week, Dow down 2% in the week, and the NASDAQ got hit the hardest 3.6% for the week. And when you look at all these big tech names, and we'll go through some charts here, you'll kind of see the same thing kind of correlating or mirroring where the NASDAQ 100 is kind of playing out and what's a line in the sand for the NASDAQ 100 is obviously going to be a line in the sand for a lot of technology names as well. So let's go through some names, kind of give you an overview of what potentially we might be looking at here. So Microsoft, again, just like the NASDAQ 100 is below the 50-day moving average, also got below the 100-day EMA that the Qs are trying to hold on to very, very important for dear life to start the week. And you can see this macro channel developing from the lows from August 18th. Microsoft starts confirming, especially Fridays, Thursdays, lows. We can see the bottom channel of August 18th lows, very, very important to understand that. Amazon, right? We talked about it a week ago. I had a really good move on Amazon two weeks ago. It broke out above 43.60s when up to almost 46 pre-market. And the next thing you know, just like the rug completely got pulled, correlated obviously with the selling with the whole space. And now Amazon is sitting right on, you know, right on rising, you know, big trend line support here of the 100-day SMA. So again, things are getting very, very hairy. A name like AMD, excuse me, a name like AMD, right? AMD, again, has been predominantly below the 50-day moving average, right? And this stock has been getting killed, killed, killed like nonstop. And we're approaching a major trend line as well. Tesla will go over, Tesla really saved my day on Friday. We'll get the individual pivots there in a second. But Tesla lost its 50-day moving average, right? Lost its 50-day. I think this is a scenario we could probably see 238, you know, around the 240, 238 level, maybe even the 235 level this week. If we get one more pushdown, especially on Monday. And a name like Apple. Look how, guys, look how big this channel is of Apple. This one really, really caught my attention last week. And we've been just waiting for a couple of days for this thing to confirm. I think this could be a really exaggerated potential swan dive effect. If you look at this channel, it's going all the way back to 818, which is correlating with a lot of stocks on the summer lows. But if it starts taking down this whole channel here, guys, this is a long channel. We're almost in October. If it starts taking down this whole channel here, we could really, really get a move into the 170 area for Apple going into next week. If you look at the SPY, for example, again, kind of the same thing as the Qs. A lot of names have gotten really beat up. Again, as you know, the SPY is a hodgepodge of technology, banks, energy, retail. And speaking of retail, man, look at names like KSS, look at names like Target. Again, this is a really big kind of showpiece of showing consumer confidence, right? Consumer spending or lack of spending. If you look at the retail names versus technology, although technology has looked bad, the technology has looked bad for about a week and a half. I know stocks like Target and Coles, they've been getting hit hard all the way since springtime. So it really is an ugly picture going into next week. Here's what the market needs to do, right? Here is what it needs to do is some levels that the market needs to hold on to. And I'll go through each individual ETF. So this whole area here is the 100-day EMA of the Qs. As you can see here, two days in a row, the Qs are trying to hold on to their desperately. Thursday, we had that big, big macro sell-off. Friday, we actually gapped up about 100 points. And I sat there in the webinar and said, I'm not buying a damn thing. I'm not buying a damn thing because, again, when you have technical damage over the previous two days and the next day the market gaps up, you don't want to buy that tape. You want to make sure that tape gets rejected off the previous days' levels and confirms starts putting in downward prices. That's exactly what happened. The Qs literally got rejected from Thursday's lows and went right on the day, right? Finished the day up a nickel. I mean, the Nasdaq 100 was up like 100, 130 points, and we called it flat. So the Qs have to hold on to $3.5750. See that, guys? That's the low for the last two days, $3.5750, $3.5750. If the Qs start losing $3.5750, we're going down to August 18 lows, which is roughly $3.5470, and any close below $3.5470, you have a $10 pocket potential swan dive to the next 150-day EMA. SPYs, right? SPY is already broken formation, okay? This was the bottom channel here. We talked about this in the webinar on Thursday, 4.33. Got taken out, put in new lows, and now the next area of potential soft landing is this 4.29 level, which is the 150-day EMA. Any close below the 150-day EMA on the SPYs gets it all the way down to 4.25 and all the way down to 4.23. So SPYs have to hold on to this 4.29 level. When you look at the IWM, this has been underperforming, for the exception of the last run, this has really been underperforming all the major other ETFs. Again, just like SPYs, this thing was broken the last week, and now it's holding on to the linear regression lines. You can see it stopped perfectly at the linear regression line. Again, when new traders turn around and say, hey, Dan, why do you have all these lines? Well, again, stocks just don't stop randomly. It's stock because, again, because these silly lines, right? So IWM needs to hold on to this 176 level. If the IWM does not, again, then I'm not saying the markets will go down every single day. We obviously know that's not the truth. Even the worst-performing markets, we still have instances of debt-cab balances, some aggressive rallies in between. But just like we saw in 2022, when you are below the 50-day moving average, 80% of all the days are going to be down days, and that's the reality. My playbook, my blueprint during 2022 was short the days that had trend to the downside and avoid the days that had debt-cab balances. Again, those debt-cab balances are a roll, and debt-cab balances are what they are. They're debt-cab balances. They could balance 50 cents. They could balance $5. But the point is that we saw this on Friday before the rod pull. As soon as we saw futures getting pulled, we saw bids getting pulled $2 at a clip. So the market is very, very sitting on very thin ice right now, and these levels that we just spoke about, write them down, okay, write them down. Even if you don't trade the ETFs, write them down and use them as a course of reference. Going into this week again, any gap-up should get faded. The market, that's exactly what happened on Friday until the queue started building above from the point of reference. For the market to get a debt-cab balance, a truly debt-cab balance back to the 5-day and even 10-day moving average, the queues have to reclaim 362. It's gotten rejected below 362 now, back-to-back days. But before then, we started talking about reclaiming back 362s. They have to hold on to this 357.50 because if they don't, we're going to start going lower prices. So let's talk about some pivots. I came in short, I came in short NVIDIA, right? I came in short NVIDIA on Thursday into Friday. If you guys remember, NVIDIA got absolutely destroyed, absolutely destroyed from its 420 level. So I came in short. The stock was down another $3 after the close. I was making some covers. Everything was good. And Friday, the market gapped up. And unfortunately for me, NVIDIA didn't just gap up to $3. It was up like 9-10 bucks. So after everything was said and done, we went from being up like 4-5 bucks on NVIDIA to actually losing net-net $3 on the trade. So I wasn't happy about it, but it is what it is. And then obviously NVIDIA started moving lower. I obviously still like this thing lower, especially if the market continues to get pulled. I'm going to watch the bottom channel here. You see how it just keeps on just holding on to the 100-day SMA. I'm going to watch this 100-day SMA because if this thing loses it, then we're going to go back to those dreaded August lows to retest the bottom channel here. But Tesla, right? Tesla definitely saved the day on Friday. We had an initial pivot, 254 of bills below can flush. So the first pivot on Tesla and lost to 54, went down to 52 and bounced, right? So I covered pretty much about three-quarters of my position just for a scalp got stopped out at the rest and Tesla at one point almost went green in the day. And then towards the afternoon, we knew and this is kind of the most important part. If you scroll up here, right? If you scroll up here, right? 252 now is the 50-day EMA. If it builds below, it can flush more. I would say it flushed. So it lost that 252 level and the stock sold off $8, literally $8 in the afternoon. One of the most violent sell-offs I've seen of real or recent memories in the afternoon. I'm still holding about 25% of the position. I think we see at some point this week, I think we see two between 235 and 240. Somewhere around the 238 level would be great for this interval close at 244. So if it starts losing the Friday's channels, for Monday or even Tuesday, whatever the case may be, I think we do see a 240, 238 level for a potential next soft landing. Buyers are coming in really aggressively right from the word go on Tesla Friday morning, the 247.5 weeklies. And then they were coming for next weeks, which is this week's expiration, the 245s. Everything's correlating. Now we just want to see if we can get to this 238, 240 level of congratulations again, guys. Congratulations for all you guys who are still short Tesla going into this week. HPQ 2678 earnings low for bill's welcome flush. Has not flushed yet. Has not flushed yet. It's sitting there. It's sitting there literally at earnings lows. Watch HPQ this week. If this thing confirms this channel, HPQ will get hit. Marvel never saw this 5179 level, Meta never saw this 293 level. So this is basically where we were short from Thursday to 414 level and then the 411.40 pre-market lows went all the way down to 407, 408. The problem is it stopped us out on the next day on the 419 area. So we wanted to be losing about three bucks in the trade, but it is what it is. The video blah, blah, blah, Tesla. And just in case we were looking for upside. So Tesla definitely saved the day. Definitely, definitely saved the day on Friday. And now we are set up for this week's as well. So here's some pivots we should definitely be watching. Watch Hewlett Packard, guys. Definitely keep an eye on Hewlett Packard for this week. Again, just sitting right on earnings lows. A couple of names that I started positions with this past week. They still haven't cracked, right? They still haven't cracked, but I'm still sitting in them. Cargill, I've been short now for a week. I'm still waiting for it to crack. It's literally at my, I feel like it's a broken record, but it literally has not cracked. Can't go move higher. It's literally at my short entry. So I'm just waiting for this damn thing to crack. I also started a position this week on MG and I. I'm up about a nickel there, nothing big yet, but I'm still waiting for these things to just crack. I love these earnings low play. Sometimes you'll be in these things for a number of weeks, but when they finally have that expansion day, it's going to be good. Again, just kind of a case in point. I've been sitting in Peloton for two weeks. We have about an 10, 11% move on this thing. I just got a runner left, but I'm still looking for that $4 washout move. So that's that. Let me give you guys a couple of names to watch this week. Obviously, keep an eye on Tesla. If it starts losing Friday's channels, I do think we get, I do think we get 230, between 235 and 240 on that soft landing. But let me give you guys some other names I'm definitely watching. Look at Goodyear Tires. Again, another name, another name that is a potential earnings lowest place. It's just a matter of time. Eventually, it's going to lose this whole channel here and it's going to get lower. I've been watching this thing for a couple of weeks, has still not confirmed. I love this Apple chart, guys. Again, it doesn't necessarily have to confirm, but boy, oh boy, we're getting very, very close. If Apple confirms this whole entire formation, it's going to be a pretty good move down. And look at Neil, right? Look at Neil as well. Neil as well had a big gap up, kind of did nothing for the last couple of days. Watch Neil this week. If it starts losing this whole channel here, maybe you have more selling to come in. So that's it, guys. We're prepared on the ETFs. We're prepared for the individual equities. Now the key is sit back, relax, be patient, and let it confirm organically. God bless you. Have a great remainder of your weekend. And with God's help, I'll see you all Monday. Take care.