 Okay, it is Friday the 15th of October. Hope you're doing well and hope you've had a great week so far and just gonna jump straight in and start Talking about Bitcoin seen a decent move in the overnight session Which has seen Bitcoin futures bust through $60,000 and it all comes on the back of this headline which came out in the overnight Asia pack session Where the SEC is poised to allow the first US Bitcoin futures Traded fund to begin trading and this is of course a watershed moment for the crypto currency industry I must stress though that this has not been confirmed In fact the SEC spokesperson declined to comment on this report according to Bloomberg who tried to reach out to them overnight But again looking at what's been on the agenda here the push to have a Bitcoin related ETF There's been something which has been underway for several years So this being as I said a watershed moment And if so would mean that there's as you can see on this table for futures backed Bitcoin ETFs that could begin trading on US Exchanges as soon as this month as you can see here 18th 19th and the 25th of October from in the likes of in Vesco Pro shares being the first one here and So looking at the chart the overnight move was was sharp in terms of reaction We broke through the weekly high Which was the prior overnight APAC session higher at 59 K and as you can see here We've run up. I've just put a rectangle on the overnight Movement that we've seen in Bitcoin futures just looking here at this this trend channel with some of the price action That we've been looking out over the last two weeks So I'm just quite interested to see here We've just fatigued a little bit on that initial blip on the reaction when Europe is coming to the markets Just found a bit of a top on that top end of that trend line, which would come in come inside as well Just short of the 61,000 mark. So yeah some really strong moves in Bitcoin on the daily chart obviously of breaking above 60 if we can close above that is somewhat symbolic and we can see here that previous high was at the same level on the 10th of May and Was an inflection point through the kind of end of Q1 commencement of Q2 of this year And would open up then further upside technical levels of relevance not until we to get a little bit higher probably around first of all 61 just above 61 350 and then ultimately 64 K and then back up to the 65 territory So yeah, we'll be interested to see how the close on the Bitcoin looks today But otherwise other than that, let's just jump straight into an overall flavor of what we've got for other asset classes this morning And as you can see equity index futures are slightly positive Or be it a slight drift off their Asia Pacific session highs It does come in the context of a really strong close on Wall Street And as a matter of fact, you know, just having a look at the lights of the S&P the Nasdaq now over the course of the last 48 hours or so really phenomenal Comeback after just printing that double bottom that we had through Tuesday Wednesday the mid part of the week We've just come racing back to the upside and on the daily chart for the S&P here We're back above the 50 DMA Which is obviously quite key and again it needs to see how we close the session later on today and for the Nasdaq We're just below that point So still keeping a half an eye there Nasdaq obviously tends to swing out and under performed depending on the largely the rate environment and hinged on the the Fed expectations and on the daily chart You can see here an interesting one to watch if we continue to pressure on it on or push to the upside As we go into the US session today that 50 DMA with that Rectangle here I've put which has been a key area of resistance previously back in Summer and if we can break back above there then perhaps we can continue to push back on on this recovery higher up But that would be a key obstacle to tackle in the short term for the Nasdaq which on the 30 minute bar You can see it's just had a really phenomenal ride Of late over the last two sessions or so Why is that been happening? Well a couple of things to just have a quick look at This is looking at earning season and obviously yesterday We're starting to see that pick up a little bit more pace couple more banks were reporting So the largest financial institutions city Bank of America Morgan Stanley, they all finished higher yesterday post earnings United Health Group led gains in the Dow They were up in excess of 4% the health care giant raised its outlook and as you can see here these green rectangles indicative of the earning seasons that we've had since the onset of the Pandemic and every single earning season generally we've moved higher Question marks a little bit more this time and earnings going forward Because now we're starting to see just the economy just come off the boil a little bit from that rampant pricing in of the Recovery coming out of the pandemic, but certainly be interested to see how things play out still super early of course in the in the earning cycle So far the other thing of course we had yesterday was the likes of the applications for us state unemployment benefits They fell to their lowest as you can see here since March of 2020 So the best that we've had since the pandemic showing employers are hanging on to their workers in this tight labor market and then the other thing was prices and As you can see here cost pressures of cooling prices paid to American producers rose in September the slowest pace of the year Amid cooling costs for services including airfares as the Delta Variant impact impacted demand so they're kind of to explain the rationale why equities have been so bullish I guess in a sense is the case of look It's not that the Fed are not going to taper and start their tightening cycle That's still very much going ahead. It's the fact that inflation. Yes, it's high. It's sticky. It's perhaps non-transit tree However, it's cooling Also some signs of that being the case and whether it's not it's cooling or not It's just not going higher at this point And that seemingly has been enough from the CPI PPI reports to just alleviate some of that Yield movement that we were seeing last week, which was really dictating proceedings as people are really aggressively pricing in those inflation expectations So they've been perhaps rained back a little bit as to where we're at at this moment in time Some of that jobless data also helping with some of the positive earnings as a consequence Hence the reason we get a little bit of a bullish sentiment just materialized over the course of the last 48 hours A few other things then to be aware of but before I get into them Don't forget we've got the latest episode of the market maker Coming out on the podcast channel. So again Apple Spotify Google podcast just type in amplify me market maker And the latest episode is going to be going out at 10 a.m. This morning. So remember to check that out Otherwise, yeah, a few other news stories and then if we'll look at a few other charts This is to do with vaccines So I don't think this is particularly a big deal I'd say largely expected but again another kind of positive in regards to another variable to throw in the mix a panel of expert advisors to the us fda unanimously voted yesterday to recommend booster shots of modern as covet 19 vaccine For americans age 65 and older all those at high risk of severe illness or occupational exposure to the virus so again when Generally, the efficacy rates of vaccines are decreasing. It's well known that then that's going to require booster shots So the more approvals that come You know the more that I can counteract any vaccine hesitancy and things like that to give people more confidence to go out Go ahead and get those booster shots. And again that helps just again alleviate any concerns about any returns of Covid as we go into the seasonal kind of cooler months of the year in the western in the western world Um, otherwise other charts then following some of the the movement inequities Um oil is right back up there again Not that there's been anything too specific in an oil related headline But as far as the sessions concerned today from an intraday perspective I'd keep an eye on the weekly high that was printed on monday We've come just short of that as europe has stepped into the market that would be at 82 18 obviously on the weekly Well above that key area of really 80 dollars and so oil looking good at the moment I mean from a from a more multi-day weak perspective Even if we were to pull back you still got some pretty solid support now I was be eyeing up at around that 80 dollar handle and now we're training at 82 Wouldn't be a surprise at all Barring anything unexpected that we continue to just if we can break out above that weekly high Then we continue pushing on with the next kind of technical error resistance not seen till 84 In the futures market at the moment Currency wise it's pretty quiet Dollar are perhaps a touch softer this morning. The Dixie's trading down about one tenth of one percent So just giving a bit of light reprieve for the major currency pairs and top left euro dollar cable up 16 29 pips each respectively as far on the commodity market gold Pretty much locked in a period of consolidation after the breakout to the upside that we had Yesterday afternoon in the u.s. Session So confined it by at the moment 1800 bucks on the upside in the futures market and be looking down at around the S1 and the low that was seen in the apax session at 1788 as an area of support to define that Period of consolidation that we're in All right, a few other headlines overnight in asia Perhaps a few things just to be aware of Just in the context of what's been going on with everground not too much movement on that specific company in itself But china have come out on loose and restrictions on home loans at some of its largest banks According to people familiar with the matter default risks mounting for china developers as funding dries And so a bit of an attempt here To just just get back into control of that situation and stop any spillover effects that that can have from chinese authorities In a similar type of fashion here the pboc the central bank injected 500 billion yuan through its medium term lending facility That was very much generally Infitting with expectations Generally that was what was rolling off and maturing today. So they've just kind of filled that void As well as to keep the system functioning Flush of liquidity for the time being Elsewhere brexit I did write quite a bit about this in my notes that you can access on my twitter account My handle was here if you want to have a read of that, but a long story short The european commissioner yesterday struck a bit of a conciliatory tone presented his proposals resolving what's been The issue from the beginning of brexit, which has been the how they're going to deal with trade and the issue of northern ireland and Apparently the european commissioner early in the day told european diplomats behind closed doors that the bloc would retaliate forcefully If the uk seeks to pull out of the northern island protocol Now the problem that that has is that the p.m. Boris johnson is expected to Push back against the latest proposal from europe and so hence the reason why we're getting a little bit of a Elevation if you like in in the confrontation at least a verbal rhetoric happening between the two sides once again You know we haven't been here for a while, but we have been here of course many times over the recent years Again, what's the outcome? hard to say at this point Frost who's on the uk side said that the uk is prepared to trigger article 16 A clause in the protocol that allows for unilateral safeguard measures If serious economic societal or environmental difficulties result from its implementation so again while the uk has kind of Been somewhat surprised almost by the proposal and somewhat concessions being made by europe so far to come forward with their latest plan British demands that the european court of justice oversight be ended is is a key sticking point for the uk so at the moment There's going to be a lot more hot words said i guess But i don't necessarily think that that's going to phase the sterling currency for now Because i think the the market's fairly acclimatised to the fact that There's probably not going to be a result of this It'll just drag out for a considerable period of time If there's any looming deadlines on any type of agreements, they'll just get rolled over as they have done multiple times in the past All right So a quick look at the day ahead. What do we got on the schedule? So pretty quiet overall for this morning not too much going on french cpi data coming out in in a Next half an hour or so from when i'm recording this expected you in yet 2.1 percent, which will be unchanged in previous Otherwise, it's really more of a us centric session as you can see here You've got us retail sales first of all the headline figure for this afternoon expected at minus 0.2 percent Coming back down from the previous plus 0.7 As you can see here that we had previously in the month of august now According to analysts at i and g they say that retail sales will be dragged lower by a plunge specifically in Vehicle sales That's more of a function though of a lack of supply than a drop-off in demand Given the dearth of infantry to sell the ongoing production bottlenecks and the fact that second hard car prices are just Astronomically high at the moment. They're up around 45 percent this year So outside of autos the figures should remain positive With rising incomes and surging household wealth providing strong underpinnings So I guess the takeaway from what they're suggesting is Although it might look weak on the surface if it is indeed Factor of then specifically weighted to auto sales You can almost disregard that look at the other underlying figures and it might be that they're actually more positive But it's just a motor motor vehicles are pulling the number down So if there is any initial knee jerk negative type reaction, just be careful of a quick reversal As as traders will be looking out for those details Otherwise on the calendar, you've also got the New York fed manufacturing figure at the same time as retail sales and later on you get university michigan sentiment That's the preliminary number for october so worth keeping an eye on with that looking for a slight improvement from last month up to 73.1 from 72.8 Speaker wise feds bullard non-voter 445 obviously more on the hawkish disposition then feds williams close one to watch voting member speaking at 5 20 and that is it so again Check out the latest pod card episode coming out later on this morning 10 o'clock london time had a chat with eddie About the bank earnings from this week and investment banking fees just going through the roof Why is that happening? How long can it last? How hedge funds are looking to get in on some of that? Deal making action as well so Yeah, hopefully you'll enjoy it and with that I wish you a great session and a fantastic weekend ahead take care