 Well, digital asset news or Dan for short. My name is Robin today. I'm gonna do a little bit something different I need to bring in more people that of course who are smarter than me and can actually give me some really great information And one of those people that I reach out to was Tom crown and Tom. I want to say thanks so much for accepting the invite Hey, man. Thanks for having me on Dan. I let me know when you find someone smarter than you to have on I'd love to have them on too That's a good one. So we don't know Tom's got his own his own night YouTube channel He's also pretty active on Twitter. I think that's a pretty great guess and does a lot of great things and one of the things I like about Mr. Crown here is that he doesn't go too heavy or heavy at all into the hype It's mostly just kind of like my material where I give it to you straight sometimes It's you know the things that you'd want to hear but most of times is just the reality of the situation So Tom want to say it first of all Thanks for doing those types of things and talking and just making things simple for trading I'm not a trader. So it is interesting to watch your content Yeah, as soon as I saw your content I put it, you know connected the dots and I said man We have a lot in common here just the rhetoric you were using and honestly even just the tone in which you speak during your Livestreams, it's definitely something I strive for as well because I think that's really important to the viewers If we're freaking out, they're probably freaking out even if there's nothing to freak out about So we're I like to be a voice of reason. I think you do. Yeah, well, perfect This would actually bring me to my questions first and foremost. We're gonna go over them. Let's see first Tom Who are you? How'd you get into crypto and who is your information for a second thing? I want to talk about is the market. It's down I want to just get your quick opinion about where we're going 2023 What's your strategy here as a trader because I gotta tell you you guys your traders can feed me There's all these different types and then next to last I want to have you critique my exit strategy I did a video not too long ago where I talked about the things that I'm looking for when during the next bull run and how I can maximize Those exits and those profits and then finally finally, let's go over some final thoughts on them And I think this is the biggest part the mental aspect of trading because it's very easy To quote-unquote buy the dip and and buy a little bit and then maybe take a little profit But the mental aspect to really get into it. So the first things first Tom tells who you are How you got into crypto and who is this information for? Who am I? I'm just a normal dude. You know, I worked to nine to five. I did sales. I Went to school for political science. I was really into politics not politics, but government the structure sure and Leaving college. I found that everything was kind of an illusion You know democracy wasn't really how it was presented to me things weren't really the way that I thought in the world and I found myself with very little belief and I just stumbled across cryptocurrency probably in the same way many people do and I Got obsessed with it. It just clicked. I said this is you know, it clicked voting voting should be done on a blockchain This is what it seems to be for This is like the solution to so many of the questions that I I felt weren't really true And so I was in sales and I got laid off and I had unemployment and for the first time in my life You know I'd gone from school to school to school to work job job job I got to sit there and say what do I want to do and the answer was obvious I wanted to do you know, I'm a Bitcoin maximalist. I a little bit different than what you might think don't judge me But I can't apply to Bitcoin right? I can't say hey Bitcoin give me a job And so I kind of came up with what if I just started streaming because I see a lot of content on YouTube and on the internet and there wasn't quite as much then but That I didn't really feel helped the viewer it didn't really help share At least my passion it kind of didn't set them up for success and I thought maybe I could help fill that niche And here I am almost four years later. It's working somehow. I don't know. Yeah, well, I mean that's good It's good. You're doing that the non-hyper up But so to move on just a little bit like who is your information for like like for me I kind of get into I make Things bite-sized pieces. I try to break it down from the complex as simple as best I can give people information as far as the news and kind of Lead them down the path of what I am doing so they can make their own decision for the best choice for them So Tom for your channel, who is this for? Yeah, well if we look at my demographics people very similar to myself kind of 24 to 35 guys in the US UK Who's it really for it's for people who are crypto curious a lot of my content is a little too My trading content can be a little complex for people who haven't traded before I have put out some shorts recently that help address that and fill the gap They're way more friendly to beginners, but really you know people curious about crypto and I Do a lot of trading content because it's it's stuff to watch, you know while I'm live I can do things it doesn't reflect my personal strategy Completely it is a good bit for content, but I think anyone you know, where do you go to learn about trading? There's really isn't trading school. You can't go to it in college And so I actually learned a lot of my stuff by watching other people do things live And I think anyone that's interested in learning a little bit more about trading Probably good content for you. Yeah, and like I will tell you this I don't do the shorts we talked about this as far as the videos themselves But like we were talking about beforehand like this one right here Like you break it down to the most basic principles kind of like what I do myself as far as like for trading Like just take a just take a watch of this. There are two ways to enter a trade A limit order is used when you're not available to monitor the charts limit orders allow you to simply set it and forget it However, these can cause losses if executed without confirmation A market entry can be a more conservative way of entering trades as you can see the price action in real time When price has tagged your point of interest you want to drop down to a lower time frame and wait for a shift in market structure You can then enter based on a newly created order block that created a shift in market structure This can provide you a higher probability of the trade working in your favor So yeah, so like like stuff like that makes things very super simple and I can appreciate that especially for the new Person who's getting into crypto and going well, what is you know, should I Leverage myself 1500x and maybe should I put all my money into it or maybe just do something like this So that kind of asks those questions in the shorts. I like those. It's only 40 seconds or less So Tom, this will be my next one You're a trader you've been in the in a game for quite some time the markets sucking Let's be honest. So where what do you think we're going in 2023? I Saw one of your recent live videos. He had go solo way on I believe he thinks that we can go to 12 13k Bitcoin I think his worst-case scenario might be 5k or something like that But where are we going from here and then also what's your strategy moving forward? Yeah, well, there's definitely many approaches something I want to point out So in that short, it said, you know, higher probability Trading is not magical. It doesn't see the future. There's there's no magic bullet. It's all about probability And so when we were talking at me and Gareth about lower lows and There's always a probability of pretty much any number that you can imagine the scary ones tend to come true in both directions and Where we are right now in the market Does not look so strong. You know, we we hit 15.5k I don't really see a reason that the market would stop there. However, markets aren't always rational So I am even looking at that 13-8 level. That's a really solid support. It was Resistance in 2019 when we rallied up off of 3,100 low price rejected there. It's a good spot to look for support But into the next year, you know, we don't know how long these things could take that could that could resolve by the time The video comes out or you know, it could happen in a year Timing is something that I really stray away from because it's very difficult. I don't really see kind of positive market action At least at this moment coming I think it internet like maybe at the start of next year is the earliest unless we see a major pivot from the Fed or Maybe Congress in the US signs into existence a bunch of money There doesn't really seem to be any super strong catalysts at the moment So I'm not looking for a really strong quarter four here without, you know, the exception of some kind of white swan We've had enough black swans. I invite the white swans in we like all the kinds of swans here But of course, you know lower lower than that is possible as well. I'd be looking at 10 5 I don't I really am skeptical the price will go lower than that. However, I will admit when I'm wrong I thought the bottom was in at least twice, you know since last year and I've been wrong So it's all about probability and I think when we get to kind of how we might approach that I think you're gonna really vibe with with what I would say as well Yeah, you know what it's a good point we brought up about, you know being wrong and The bottom we just did a show today DCA with Ben and James from best answers in the cryptiverse and one of the things I talked about was I Never thought the bottom was in in June, but I thought it was wasn't in for a different reason I thought it was macro events. I thought it was the Fed not pivoting. I thought it was war in Ukraine I thought it was the supply chain issues. I did not see FTX totally being the biggest rug pole and birdie made-off type of play in in history So I couldn't see that I was I was correct, but it wasn't correct for for the right reasons So to me what that says is that on this one? I got lucky But who knows what's gonna happen and like you said Tom like is there another black swan event? We will welcome some white swans because we haven't had so many but again So hard to know and that's what what you talk about as far as probabilities. I think with trading which makes a lot more sense Uh and then for this one The next part here So you say maybe 10-5 maybe 13-2, okay We know the market's awful right now. Let's look forward into what I think is the next Bull market I have learned my lesson to not do a any kind of price predictions because those are I am I think I'm shooting 25% accuracy on that one. That's not bad. That's not that's not bad But let me tell you I had some pretty bad calls. I thought Bitcoin was 150k I thought if they're gonna go to 10k those did not play out too well Yeah, I thought higher you're you're in the more realm of actually happened I was thinking higher well, you know, I might jump into this even though this isn't really our question Um, sure I looked at the past cycles and I said, all right. I'm gonna look I had a whole chart And it was like well bottom to bottom we saw this increase and top to top We saw this increase and I kind of compared them. We really only had what maybe three full cycles I guess now four and so my projections were based on what the data we had And so I kind of compared them maybe subtracted a little off the top and I was looking for like 300 000 I was I was looking high uh the 69 top really took me off guard and I learned a lesson here too is Looking back obviously the past isn't the predictor of the future Yeah, but Maybe kind of all these assumptions that we have I think I'm still in the four year cycle boat But I think that as time goes on we're gonna find everything that we know to be true about price is probably gonna end up being false I think that this cycle was unlike anything we've seen before And not really in a good way actually when it comes to price action at least in adoption. Yes, but not not so much in price Yeah, I have to agree who I mean There was very few people like that saw through the ftx Facade and actually saw for what it was. So for them, I gotta give my hat tip my hat to them Go it's amazing that these things were seen because there was so many different people And it's the same people that are actually also were calling for I mean monstrous blow-off top rallies For for crypto and digital assets. So again, we'll see how it all works out But this would lead me to my my question about my exit strategy So I am not smart enough to figure out the absolute top or the absolute bottoms nor am I no stradamus So I figured to myself I should just play probabilities And look at a couple of different factors and I put out this video not too long ago. It was looking right here It was when and why i'm selling 80 percent of all my crypto and you're looking at this right now over on The website dan teaches crypto. Everybody knows it's 100 for a on to tell them, but on this one It's uh, it's rather lengthy for me over 30 minutes and I talk about the things i'm looking at As far as pi cycle top and upl well multiple mv rv z score and different things So tom what I had you did do was to review it Before we actually came on and I need you to critique it and tell me where there are faults in there And how you would correct those faults to make it uh more comprehensive and better Absolutely, I I watched the whole thing more than once actually was a very solid video So I don't have that many critiques. So instead or when I don't have them I'll fill them in with kind of The alignment of our thinking and it starts with your dogecoin millionaire example And I love it because this is almost it almost seems like you made this video for me dan and I appreciate it Not a millionaire, but I uh, I've been in the crypto space a long time and I Had some doge and it wasn't a crazy amount of doge. Um, I think maybe I invested 150 or 200 in it a few years ago And I witnessed, you know, what the dogecoin millionaire witnessed I saw that turn into six figures to deep six figures And like you, of course, I don't know the bottom and I don't know the top And in fact, I don't really believe people can know those things. And so you're gonna love this Um I trade or I trade against bitcoin Mostly, but I guess for this example, I can use it in dollars just to make it simpler maybe for people watching Um, so I accepted I don't know the top and no one no one can And so what can we do to make sure that we still sell the top that sounds like a loaded question? But it is possible. The answer might not be satisfying Uh, what I did is I essentially took small pieces of my doge and I set limit sell orders Up every increment. Uh, I did it against bitcoin. So it was in sats. I did it every 50 sats I had a small sell order. So I get to say I did sell the top Uh, I didn't sell all of it at the top, you know, I sold a small amount But I also sold a small amount all the way up and it's a really easy strategy for trading is you find your cost average And you can simply just layer selling orders above your cost average if they fill, you know, you're in profit If they don't you're sitting there holding the bag Um, and I did I held I held that bag for I want to say two and a half years maybe more So this was not overnight Um, but I I put myself in my favorite position, which is a win-win position So as doge continued to go up I continued to fill selling orders And then when it stopped going up I was okay. I still had some doge left in case, you know, it exploded even higher I wasn't going to be like, oh no, I did the wrong thing I have to throw my money in and then end up getting wrecked on that side And as it came down, I felt nothing. I felt no fear. I felt no anxiety because I had already taken out At least 10 fold what I had put in and that's an extreme example, of course That that's a very lucky example that took, you know, many years to unfold and complete But that's really my my take on most trading in general and my content might go against that because as I said That is content I do because you can do it in real time Something like this doge trade took years. I couldn't do that in a live stream But that's the majority of my trading is very kind of slow swing trades And I use mostly just limit orders and sometimes they'll sit there for years Sometimes they are still sitting there for years and maybe they'll never fill But I really liked that you used the doge example because I Stuck to my rules. I did it. I made a good profit. I still have some doge And I'm happy either way, you know, if it never goes up again, I'm good And if it does I still have some I can ride that on and be happy And that brings us to kind of the second point in your video, which is Define your type and know your exit. So what I like about that strategy is Your exits can really just be incremental almost robotic, you know, you could say every thousand dollars down And this isn't financial advice, but I'm going to buy x amount of bitcoin every thousand dollars lower it goes Well numbers eventually reach zero, right? You can't go negative and so that defines it for you You need to accept that well, some of these may never fill you'll be surprised They do end up filling even the ones you don't think but It allows you really to take the time preference off the table and stick just to the math of it And that's a concept that's really done well for me over the years And that even lines up with your dca examples because that isn't dca based on time Which is the typical dca, which I think is a great approach in general But that's dca on price and so it's really just a little twist on that time You know time proven method of dollar cost averaging You're just choosing a price instead of a time and at the end of the day if you have orders that never fill Basically, you just go cancel them and you've lost a little bit of money for the opportunity cost But you basically You know just get your dollars back and maybe you're upset you didn't quite get as much as you wanted But that's that is the most successful strategy I've ever encountered in crypto and it really does take the in the moment kind of panic or fomo feelings off And I think anytime you do that you're setting yourself up for success Excellent excellent response. So so there's two questions that I have so let's talk about the cost basis Let's really dig down into it. So for your cost basis I know a lot of people have this this issue too is For your do you have a specific program that you use for trading that tells you the cost basis like tom look You bought You know dogecoin to at most of it was at a penny and then some was at a dime So now you're like around fit five cents if you sell it around six cents You're you know pretty much in the money Is there some kind of program that you use or is it all in spreadsheets? So you can absolutely do it on a spreadsheet. I think that that you know, it's what you're comfortable with You can definitely do it on a spreadsheet that would take a lot of manual entry. Exactly. There are many There's many software programs out there. I don't want to like really push one I use just coin tracking dot info. They don't pay me or anything There's many of them some are free some are premium I like that one. I pay for the premium because I can do api uploads so it'll Track my trades on the exchanges I put in it can even like track wallet movements I do it's more important that you keep track of it. It doesn't really matter the method But it's important that you keep track of it because if you don't know your cost basis You can't know if you're in profit or if you're in a loss and that's like people skip over a lot I think that that's actually something that should be driven home more is keeping accurate accounts is very important to creating a plan Yeah, and I gotta agree with you. So I'm gonna show everybody coin tracking that info me and tom did not get paid for this There is no affiliate link. I'm not even gonna put the link in there. You got to find it yourself Yeah, you got to find it I'm kind of tracking that info and you know there you go. That's what it looks like So you don't get uh go to the wrong place But so that that was my first one. Thank you that makes a lot of sense The second one is this with the things that are going on with the exchanges I get this question a lot which is rob I'm scared to leave anything on the exchanges But I have to because I have to execute these orders Is there a way to get around this or is it just like I got to leave it on there Or do you to say well? I leave a little bit to get an alert and then I kind of transfer over and do something else Or how do you how can you do it tom? Absolutely Yeah, this is gonna be different for everyone But right for myself about once a year. I will do like a grand recalling of all of my assets from exchange Uh crap. I can't remember the name of it. The Vatican does something similar. I think every seven years I just did it. I can't remember the name of it. I wish I did because that'd be really smart comment I bring everything back to my wall. Yeah So that is a problem and anytime you have assets on on an exchange You have to be aware of the risk and you have to factor that in Right now specifically today. My risk tolerance is way down If I had to have any kind of assets on exchange, which I do have some like trading bags Um, I would definitely though steer away really from like holding ever on on an exchange Um, but from things that aren't really kyc'd like I would you know, I'd go with kraken queen base I would go with the us regulated ones, but don't be fooled. Those are not immune to this either I don't think that they're directly involved in any way. I I think they are likely very solvent But the thing is is you should never have a feeling of oh, I'm completely safe. I'm comfortable because the fact is you're not Um, and so to run into the trading thing, how do I keep these orders active? Well, that's going to be how much risk you're willing to take on Um, whatever you have on exchange again is at risk. And so you're going to have to make that choice Are you willing to lose it? Is this trade you're looking for? Worth it And I can't tell you the answer that's going to come down to each individual But right now I think I have 97 or 98 of all my crypto assets in cold storage. There you go Yeah, there you go. And I think it's it's a good point. We have these rules And the first rule we have is right underneath tom. It's uh, it's all gone meaning that You can't invest more than you can afford to lose So if you're okay with two percent three percent five percent or whatever percentage it is That is up to you and we can't tell you what to do. Uh, we are not uh investment advisors I don't think me or tom or your dad. So we cannot do these things. We cannot help you out It's up to you to make that decision excellent points tom. Thank you. That makes a lot of sense The last one let's come out of this. I think this is the bigger play The mental aspect because I've seen your videos. I've watched you and even you who have done a lot of trading You've even said I know I should do this thing But I can't pull the trigger right now because I'm going to let this ride You don't say all the time but you but but I I've caught you saying and even I have said that going You know what? I have a plan in place. I just need to follow this plan But then I either get too greedy or too fearful. I execute some things but not like I should so the mental aspect Tom, how do we deal with that? It's the number one thing in trading and I think you could even say that almost nothing else matters It's a not a satisfying answer either But almost nothing else matters all the indicators all the numbers and lines like These things have relevance because they can help us identify some probability some edges where we might be able to profit But at the end of the day Dan, this is what I said before we started is we have a lot in common is It's all about making a plan Setting that plan up and executing it and then not messing with it in between And I have years and years of experience trading and dan you have years and years of experience investing I'm sure you do a little trading too And even we we sometimes can't follow through it's it's not easy It is almost a super human feat to be able to control your emotions um The sentiment and I said that about doge kind of putting myself in a win-win position I like that because it really takes the pressure off of the Mental or the mindset you have because you're thinking oh, I'm winning in either direction So I don't need to worry and the more often you can do that. Absolutely the more successfully you'll be Um, but even I live streaming. I remember the video. I was like, oh man, I shouldn't I know I should just close this but I'm not going to and then like a day later. I was like, well, you told yourself you should have done it Really anything you can do anything you can do to get yourself Calm and in a rational mindset because trading does Kind of reflect in our body the same way physical motions do like if we're confronted by a bear You're not really thinking logically you're thinking. Oh, oh crap. There's a bear. I should run, right? Right. Um, and in that case you should run But in trading there's no there's no physical bear there to eat you And so I've found almost any time I've made a decision in that fight or flight state It's been the wrong one and it has to be like intentional from markets To trap us into these mindsets where we have to make a decision right now has to be a big one And if I don't do it something really bad is going to happen. Well, guess what if you just stand up Walk away. I say go take a run go outside go just do anything to disconnect with that emotion Come back sit down and if you feel the same way in that logical calm mindset, then go ahead and go through with it very It almost never does that our time frame totally change what's happening No matter how much it feels like it in the moment. Usually things are right about where they were an hour later Um, that's kind of my rule that I I propose to people I'm using limit orders is a great way to do it in that little video set it and forget it It's a great way uh to literally forget about it And if you're not remembering it, it's really hard to stress over it. So That's a good way to combat it as well Yeah, I gotta tell you well, there's a couple of things first of all Uh, how many times have you who are watching this video done that you've you've seen some kind of news event You've taken a look at the charts and you've done a little bit too of a hasty decision It just it happens more often than not and then the next thing is I mean if you really think about it Um, these things that that we have as far as emotions we can control them but it just takes a lot of practice and uh, right now I think it's important that you have a plan whether that that plan be something like uh, like we talked about here In this exit strategy or the things that uh, tom had talked about in in his videos Either way, there's a way for you to do things and maybe it's a hybrid of both of it But the big thing is is just to find a plan find something that works for you And set it and forget it and before we take off tom, let me ask you this real quick How sweet is it to have those order limits set and then just wake up and haven't have already had it done and you're like Wow and profit. How does that feel? Oh, it's amazing. It really is an amazing feeling. Uh, it's the delayed gratification, right? That's it's that's the The opposite of what I think people instinctively want they want that instant gratification And I just I've never really it just doesn't work The more you can delay it for some reason in crypto. It's just the more successful. It seems uh, kind of an anecdotal story. I think it was like early 2020 I had layered buys on bitcoin every 500 dollars down all the way to Zero basically at something like a hundred and I thought it's a little never fill. We're we're flying up We're going to the moon again because everybody thought that at the time. Yeah, sure Come march 2020 I woke up and I had all these limit orders filled at really low prices and everyone was like, what? Like you're so you're such a good trader tom and I was like these have sat for Two years. I'm not like thank you You're saying I'm a great trader, but in reality I just was patient and I just set these orders and I waited what I did is and maybe this will be really value add to your audience is What price will what price would make you uncomfortable? What would make you really? Really kind of scared, right? Yeah, throw a limit order there because guess what if price crashes to that number Now all of a sudden you may just bought it really really cheap cheaper than you ever thought you'd buy it And you're putting yourself then in a position of well This crash maybe is actually good because I was able to accumulate so much of an asset so cheap that I didn't even think it Would ever happen It's really turning the tables on that mentality doing that that is perfect And with that that is a perfect segue to get out of here. Tom. You've said you've said it all today Thank you so much for coming on the show and everybody if you're looking for uh, tom crown and his channel There's a link in the description You can check them out and final the great information, but that is it for today. So tom. Thanks for stopping by We appreciate it. Thank you man. Thanks for having me dan. All right, everybody. That's it for today. Adios