 Okay, very good morning. It's Wednesday 20th of November. I hope everything is going well with you Gonna talk about from my side two things The ongoing US-China trade war and an impact it's having on market sentiment at the European Open this morning And then also we're gonna have a talk about my feelings after the first televised debate between the two party leaders of Labour and Conservatives on ITV last night and any implication that might have on polls And thoughts about the general election going forward. So that's what's on the agenda for me Then I'll hand you over to Sam and he will go over the charts in more details But starting off just a quick overview. We've got a distinct Air of risk off going on this morning gold and the US Treasury's Bunns have been moving higher in somewhat of a flight to quality move equities a touch softer as well You can see the Dax and Euro stocks already on the back foot this morning Just following a slight down tick that was seen in the overnight Asia-Pacific session in global index futures the main Gist of this is coming on the back of two real things one a US Senate Hearing and development that happened yesterday and then a comment out of China both overnight and from that kind of talking Well, let's call it a talking head It's kind of a journalist at the Global Times which is very much associated with the Chinese government Who's communicated on Twitter this morning and we'll have a look at those comments So as you can see here bottom right T notes up about 12 and a half ticks, which is a fairly decent sized move Given the time of day. It's only just gone 8 a.m. Here in London this morning WTI crewed also a little lower and we've also got obviously the The olive and trees which came out last night the headline reading was a build of about six million Which was far larger than anticipated build of one and a half million as well That coming with the negative development and the trade dialogue has put crewed just slightly on the back foot You can see some of the movement just continuing from what we had from yesterday Threatening down at those lows from when or Tuesday's session. So let's get straight into the headlines Going to start with this. This was the first piece the US Senate unanimously passed a bill Tuesday aimed at supporting protesters in Hong Kong and Warning China against violent suppression of the demonstrations again. This is coming after months and months now of Escalation that we've had of more violent protesting in Hong Kong now as we know Any time that the US has spoken out on this specific and very sensitive issue China have all always Responded quite forcefully and once again overnight China reiterated a threat to impose unspecified Retaliation if the bill became law and urged the US to stop meddling in the Hong Kong affairs So that Continues down that line and more so this is the head of the global times, which is very much seen as the kind of the government's Western messaging tool to counteract Trump on Twitter So this is that journalist who tweeted only about 20 minutes ago that few Chinese people believe that China and US Can reach a deal soon given current poor China policy of the US People tend to believe the significance of a trade deal if reach will be limited China wants a deal, but it's prepared for worst-case scenario being a prolonged trade war So once again, it seems like we're arriving at this juncture of the the endless trade war cycle when it was all looking so positive Equities are kind of ripe for a little bit of a pullback given the extension to all-time record highs in recent sessions And seemingly things are still Stumbling right at the far final hurdle. It seems so definitely as we go through the session at the moment You can see already the DAX has just taken another leg lower as I've been talking I'll be interested to see as well when the US come into market How they interpret these latest things and do we get a bit of a secondary phase move to this risk-off Developing so far this morning. So definitely that's to look out for Given the Commentary from both China fishly overnight and this journalist this morning I certainly would be mindful of any tweets coming the way of Donald Trump as we get into the North American trading hours later today Moving on then let's talk about the debate I'm not sure how many of you caught the debate on ITV between Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson last night Gonna run you through basically a series of graphics from you gov Because you gov did an immediate almost like an exit poll of people's interpretation I think it was a survey of about 1600 people in a you gov commissioned by Sky News poll about how did they feel who performed the best on the night and Viewers were split on who performed best. It was actually Boris Johnson at 51 Jeremy Corbyn for 49 Rather than give my opinion I'm just gonna run you through a series of other questions of which this same sample of People were asked and I think it really says it all so this was the overall top-level figure Basically, they were neck and neck. There was no real outright catastrophe. There was no domination of one candidate over the other It almost fell like who's the better of two bad candidates to be quite frank But here's some other questions Viewers think both leaders did well in the debate, but Corbyn edged out Johnson Now I would agree with that I think that overall it's kind of one of those situations where it's kind of Boris's to lose at this point And it's it's only upside for Jeremy Corbyn And I actually did think that Corbyn did come across perhaps a touch more witty than what otherwise Johnson is normally known for even though I still feel that as per all of the polls would suggest that there's many elements of which Corbyn falls drastically short of the measure of really acting as prime minister But I think in terms of their own personal benchmark performance. I thought Corbyn did better than expected I thought Johnson was pretty much as expected But that if anything if you think about the polls Johnson is miles ahead of Corbyn and last night They came out absolutely even so if you were gonna say who actually performed better I would say and I agree Corbyn was probably a touch better on the night the other questions though Johnson seen as the most or seen as more prime ministerial and likable Corbyn as more in touch and trustworthy Boris was asked a number of questions About obviously a lot of the things that he's done in the past a lot of the things that he's been promising And so what's quite interesting is if you look at these four areas of which this poll was asking questions upon Both these guys are seen as incredibly untrustworthy. I mean what a state of affairs. We're in Both those figures under 50 Jeremy perhaps just a touch more trustworthy than Boris, but both Scoring particularly low in that area Johnson steals seen as more likable overall In terms of being in touch, I don't think that's a surprise Corbyn obviously way more Hiring that factor and then as to be expected Boris seen as much more prime ministerial qualities, let's say more than Jeremy Corbyn The next one though, I think is the most important one And that is Boris came across better on Brexit Corbyn on the NHS Now if you look at this on Brexit Boris scored at 63 against Corbyn at 27 now I did do a count last night It's kind of sad guy that I am and I counted that Boris said Brexit 19 times Comparative to Corbyn saying it just five times now for me This is a this is a big deal because for me This is not an election about so much the NHS or police or education This is a very unique and unprecedented general election We're heading into and as per the evidence from what we've seen before That what's going to win this election is really this is a polarized Specific and simple decision between what is your thoughts on Brexit? Do you want to leave or remain and it's as simple as that and so that's why I think These Strategists would have been or the masterminds behind Boris Johnson's a Dominic Cummins would have been saying look Anytime you get questioned on anything Boris just talk about Brexit and that is exactly what he was doing last night. It was actually a little bit Grating because he was he's not exactly that tacked about it But I think that's the important message. He just banged on about Brexit getting it done and as much as we know that He was saying getting it done by January 31st. I mean may I remind Everyone that that's not getting Brexit done We still need to implement the thing and we haven't even even discussed the line by line trade tariffs Which is going to take several years, but we'll leave that aside for the moment The whole point is I don't think that last night changes the game personally at all So if you're looking for shifts in opinion polls, I think that's not going to happen. I think last night moves the needle Not one iota. I think that it remains the case even though Corbyn might have done a little bit better on the NHS front Brexits the main story And Johnson really dominated that the final graphic I think is the best one And really summarized the state of affairs for me and this is this What feeling did most viewers come away from having watched the debate number one? frustrated Couldn't agree more. I would have I would have absolutely have ticked that box number one as well Just absolutely. It's just mind blowing watching the two discussing Yesterday, I mean no wonder Nigel Farage is so popular at least the guy is charismatic and has some purpose about him but obviously that's easy to do when you're a party which is going to have potentially could play a kingmaker role, but ultimately It's easy to talk the other side when you have little credibility of having a position of influence truly at a top ministerial cabinet level in the future Because therefore you can say the world, but you'll have to deliver nothing In future so overall as I said, I would say last night's tv debate although I did watch it I'm never going to be able to reclaim that one hour of my life back. I'm afraid But you didn't really miss a lot if you if you didn't see it more of those to come I'm sure over the coming weeks. So we're going to have to put up with it for longer The other thing I wanted to mention and the final thing before I look at the calendar Is really looking at the fmc minutes. They are coming out later today. So what are we expecting? Well, these are a little bit dated Don't forget this came after the fed delivered their third rate cut of 2019 back at the end Of october october the 30th So it's a little bit dated and since then we've had powell address congress And so you've really got his latest insight as to his thinking there He did maintain his view last week that rates are in a good place Following that third rate cut and provided the outlook does not suffer a material reassessment Now they were his words and now those words I think are particularly important for what we're looking out for in the minutes tonight and in particular then it's What is it? How do they quantify what would Entail a material reassessment? That's what traders will be looking at as they're queued to potentially trade if there is any opportunity for later on tonight More recently the new york fed president john williams He spoke yesterday stressed That judgment on any particular Policy maneuver wouldn't be done Easily he said on this question of materiality You would have to make sure we're not overreacting to one individual data point and really thinking about where is the economy of the next one to two years so really This idea of trying to dispel Markets being so sensitive to one piece of data causing these flash movements in markets that they're looking about the whole sum of its Parts of an economy and not thinking about the here and now the next meeting managing in let's say december the 11th They're thinking about the next one two year period ahead Now since then as well since they decided to cut interest rates for a third time. Don't forget actually We've had some actually positive data surprises The u.s. Non-farm payroll reading came out better than expected that was even with a substantial amount of workers From the gm strike that would have influenced the numbers in a negative way Household spending has also been supportive of growth. So all things being equal I'd say I'm not expecting too much from the minutes tonight. The one thing I am Looking out for with some interest though is that specific Detailing if any around what would entail a material reassessment and therefore that would give us a hint to what to watch in future Um Before we look at the calendar, we do have the oil infantry's coming out of the doe later on this afternoon Uh, this is the current state of play of what how the markets are positioned So we had a much larger than expected headline build in crude of just shy of six million Anticipated on the street was for a bill of one and a half million cushing though was a draw 1.35 million gasoline build 3.35 million distillates a draw of 2.2 million Overall combination really of that headline print with the chinese numbers this morning You can see here down on my bottom chart wti cruise has already been Moving lower this morning if I put this on the 30 minute You can see we've just broken the lower bound of price activity Which acted as some support late in the us session yesterday and first thing this morning So a breakthrough the 55 17 in the futures has seen us run through 55 this morning as people fret over The situation of completion of that phase one trade deal between the us and china and with the infantry build that we saw last night Otherwise on a calendar. It is pretty quiet today. There's no real Major economic data coming out of europe this morning. Nothing really out of 130s in the us You've got the oil data this afternoon 3 30 in the fmc minutes, of course, not until later on this evening 7 p.m If you're looking London time two o'clock in the afternoon if you're in new york So with that i'm going to hand you over to sam let him talk over some of the charts And i'll catch up with you guys later on. Thanks very much Hi guys, good morning. I hope we're all doing well even toppenham fans that have been blessed with jose marinho I'm here for you. Just give me a message if you want to talk it over I'm More than happy to have that conversation to have a look over at gold and it's coming to a Probably the most interesting point of any chart today I would say in just pushing high and that 1480 is is just such a massive massive area It was so key and obviously you can go a couple of couple of dollars either way It was 1482 for a long time that we were looking at and you can see just going back to beginning of october and then quite a few days there as well before we finally broke down on the 7th of november And we're just coming back the first real test or retest. I should say of that level so keeping a close watch on what happens here Fundamentally makes sense why we pushed higher this morning But technically that is just such a big big level To keep an eye on so we'll we'll have that marked up and be looking I think if you're looking to get short there You almost want that false break to happen before getting in because While the first test you would yes expect a bit of a reaction You probably want a bit more than that before getting short this market, which has as you see from the 12th being pushing higher On the perhaps stalling of trade talks, whether that is the case or not We'll see when when trump awakens and what the US decide to do But yeah, just above where we're trading here 1480 and any of these lows here from the 5th And then the 7th of that morning are all going to be significant All the way up to really r2 today So quite a lot of resistance there and then below where we're trading support wise any of those previous highs from yesterday Um afternoon and morning and then the higher the 14th Perhaps creates now a uh a new mini zone that i'll be focusing on as well S&P and as that dale jones dax equities in general under pressure as you would expect And relatively, you know small move this had been in the Uh the afternoon. I reckon we've had a bit more to it. So it will be interesting to see what happens As we get into that latter part of the day 3100 remains key along with the low that we had from the 15th Uh, it was also the previous high that we had on the 12th So a really key place to keep an eye on that about eight points below where we're trading So we'd have that marked up Just as a level of interest where we're trading now just testing the the s1 Trying to confirm a break below there at the moment We didn't have that on the 15 minute and just given the time of the day I would have wanted a bit more confirmation before maybe looking to see another leg lower Also to the upside perhaps now we are in that little mini range like gold But the other way around the previous lows that we had in the back end of the session Yesterday are the highs from this morning And you can see now looking up there around 31 17 and then to the downside 0 8 as well Understandably markets moving the way they are will be One to watch on as we go into the back end of the day euro coming under a bit of pressure here as well But not to get too carried away as we are just on Exactly yesterday's low now. So again, given the time of the day, you probably want just a bit more Confirmation for looking to get short here Having said that s1 s2 sorry looks like a good level of support perhaps for an opportunity to get long You've got the lows there from the week as well And of course some resistance from Friday for that market Also, if we were to at some point push higher, you can see we have just been trending lower So worth getting on one of those trend lines and then potentially looking for that break above there later on The pound similar to euro and just drifting down towards that low with the s1 Just be wary of that really good support point from What the end of friday and it was a shame this this move here Happened on the s1 late last night because it was such a a technically good place You had the the gap from the the weekend as a level support. You also had A trend line. I think it was from the start of the 31st that came through and you can just see how good that was and just what an opportunity it was to then Target the previous low of the day was that 37 16 pips. I mean you take it, wouldn't you? However, that trend line now not want to focus on and keeping an eye on that s1 that low for a potential move lower 129 And changed just a bit above as a potential target for that. Have a look over at oil Let's have a quick look just pushing to the lowest and said and that trend channel we had on yesterday had broken the range Also had broken. Let's just have a quick Put of that trend channel on decent move lower break out of that range and we're now down at 55 And when we look back here and see how we just could not get above those highs from the middle part of october And we're now well almost four dollars down, which is pretty incredible to think Below where we're trading you can see perhaps looking at some of these previous lows that we had on the the first of the month All previous highs before they broke through 54 76 and 61 will be points. I've been looking at on On oil as well. Just to keep a watch on on that. Have a quick look over at the Dax, let me just move this chart out the way just to see how We are moving and with along with us equities. We are on those lows of the day But more importantly, I mean I said gold is at the most important level this one for the Dax is massive as well You've got the really key level of support going back to the fifth of november remember remember One two three four five big tests on this level. Can it hold? Well, we'll soon find out and if not We wouldn't be surprised to see a push down towards 13 000 or even the high that we had on the 28 so equities At interesting levels 30 100 the one I'll be keeping an eye on on the s&p gold at 1480 is massive absolutely massive And the pound euro not doing too much. I'll just be a bit wary about getting too involved In that two notes and burned up as well oil under pressure So we're having clear risk off in the market here How long it will continue might have to wait till to donald trump in america wake up. Hope you all have a Good trading day. Any questions? Let me know and as mentioned if you do want to talk about marino I'm here for you