 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market's kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Tuesday morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN, 9.06 a.m. Tuesday morning. We got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading and market's negative by eight, but you were lower overnight. S&Ps will kick things off yesterday. You accelerate to a price point. The lows yesterday, 3,600 on the dot at about 1 p.m. Eastern time. You accelerate even below that area last night. You were down to 3,584. So you were down about 440 S&P points at one point at the lows, and that low folks was just about 6 a.m. Eastern time this morning. So only talking about three hours ago. Markets trading up from that point. You have the NASDAQ 100. You accelerate at 3 a.m. to 10,853. You were right back at that area at about 6 a.m. You were down to low 10,858. Since then, up almost 100 points of the NASDAQ 100. The Dow, negative by 28 points right now. You are under 29,000. We got 28,946 in the Dow crude. Pulling back a bit from the highs of yesterday. Overnight, we see a drop off at about 2.30 a.m. Eastern time. You trade from 91 to 88.50. You're back right near $90 at 89.77. Gold, tough day yesterday. Action and currencies across the board. We have gold up $2 this morning. Up about $10 from where it was at about 6 a.m. Eastern time. And we jumped to notes and bonds right now. You get the 10-year. Actually trading below where you were yesterday morning. You talk about a drop off, right? Notes and bonds just volatility continuing in extreme ways. You got the 10-year right now. Up 7 ticks. You're basically right back to where you were kind of yesterday morning, right? There's 945. Now, notes and bonds not trading in the US yesterday. How's that play out when futures, I guess, are open, though, right? In some degree, but nonetheless, you're right back to that level. We trade from 110.21. I mean, look at the moves, man. From last night, 110.22, almost a full point. You trade up on the 10-year volatility continuing and speaking of volatility. We jump over to the volatility index yesterday. 33.99, 33.16 right now. We put this thing on a daily. Just looking at this calendar year, making maybe a little bit of a double top here. The prior high from September 28th, 34.88. And we're climbing right now 33.15. You see the prior highs. And that's just this year. January, about 39. February, almost 38. May, when the market was accelerating lower, 36.64. And back at the June lows of the market, 35.05 on that volatility index. All right, let's jump around some of the headlines. Tomorrow we get Fed Minutes. Thursday, we get the CPI number. All right, as I came on the air, one headline just to touch on real briefly, the IMF cutting the global growth forecast for the next year. They talked about inflation there as well. That news just out at 9 a.m. Global growth gonna slow to 2.7% in 2023. And the quote that you may hear is the worst is yet to come. And for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession. JP Morgan, CEO, Jamie Dimon out there yesterday saying that he expects a recession next year. And let's talk some, well, let's talk some CPI. And let's talk some JP Morgan as well. We have CPI expected tomorrow, excuse me, Thursday. CPI expected Thursday, Fed Minutes tomorrow. And they're expecting some volatility, man. Now, when we got the last CPI, okay. And I'm gonna jump around here for a moment. So I think it was a 4.3% decline. Okay, let's start back at the top. They're looking for potentially 5% folks. This feels like another negative 5% day. And that's the team led by Andrew Tyler, wrote in a note yesterday, noting the S&P 500. Yeah, there it is. Drop 4.3% on September 13th when August's inflation rating came in. Reading came in hotter than expected. Now, they see potentially a 4% to 5% drop if you get a hot CPI number. Okay, the number that they're looking for, anything above the prior reading of 8.3 would be big trouble for the stock market. They're looking for the number to decline to 8.1. So the average expectation on Thursday is 8.1. The Fed Minutes are gonna matter tomorrow. But to put this thing on the chart and put what should be on your radar right now, there is September 13th, folks. We came into that price point at 41.63. Now you could make the case that we are 15% below that number, okay? That the market's pricing in, that this is gonna be a hot CPI number as his last one. There's a lot of volatility in both sides priced in. But what I've been saying before is, back on June when the market was at 36.50, we got a big reprieve here because somehow people thought that the Fed was willing to pivot or not be as strong with their convictions of hiking, all misplaced as the market's accelerated lower. And if you said to market participants in June that these are the numbers we're gonna be dealing with, these are the CPIs are gonna be persisting. This is the jobs number. We're gonna have unemployment dropping to 3.5%, right? And the only hope almost at this point is that all of the lag and all of the delay of those rate hikes, which they're mattering. I mean, you have JPMorgan, you have Jamie Dimon yesterday coming out and saying, you know, he expects a recession in the second quarter of next year. There's the lag, right? There it is. So maybe the market's priced in some of that. But boy, that was quite a reversal folks on that CPI number for the last month. And if we see anything resembling it this month, watch out. And crude is not, you know, we're, to take a look at crude, okay? We came into the month of September because this is energy prices at about $92. There's August 31st, we come in actually at 88, okay? Final day of August, we trade lower. We kick off September with crude at about $89. And you traded lower almost the whole month, right? Till September 27th. So energy prices should be beneficial in the month of September for the CPI numbers, okay? But just fast forwarding a little bit. I mean, you started off October at $80 on crude. Energy is gonna be helpful for the current CPI number we're getting right now, even though that one still may be a tough one. What happens for the October CPI print, folks? When we have energy prices going from 80 bucks to 93.64 to 89, and we're 11 days into the month rising prices yet again. It's gonna be a persistent problem. I'm not sure how we get out of the realm of even 3, 4, 5% next year. Very difficult to imagine with crude prices. I've talked about shelter many times. So we get that number on Thursday and they're looking for 8.1%. They said anything below 7.9 or above 8.3 is gonna be some big numbers. You could see a quote unquote buyer strike. Yeah, who's gonna be buying the market, right? If you get a CPI print of 8.1 and 8.3 even higher. Are you gonna step in on that day? I would not advise it. Now, unsurprisingly, this is the data point I really want to get to, which is pretty cool to start. Data on inflation are exerting a huge influence on the stock market plotting the S&P 500 performance against top 10 economic indicators such as payrolls, GDP. All the different, the 10 most valuable economic numbers that you get on a monthly basis, okay? Over the past decade, never have stocks been so negatively reactive to one economic indicator as they are now to the CPI. I would say stick with that trend until it changes, folks, okay? I would love to see some surprises where CPI is not as hot as they expected, but until I see them, probably gonna say that even at 3,600, folks, remember, we were at 3,600 in June. Things have not played out as the market had probably hoped over that time. Doesn't mean it's gonna happen on Thursday as well, but we're gonna ask our man, Kevin Hicks, when we come back, we'll talk to him coming up after the break. Stay tuned, folks. Vista Gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia, the Mount Todd Gold Project. Vista Gold just completed their feasibility study, resulting in a seven million ounce gold reserve. Vista Gold has all major permits approved and has retained CIBC capital market assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing an accreted transaction. Vista Gold trades on the NYSE American and TSX under the ticker symbol VGZ. Vista Gold executing a strategy to create shareholder value. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at tfnn.com. 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There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Back folks, we get the S&P futures down 13 points right now, trading at 36.12. Remember overnight, you have markets trading down to about 35.84, so still about 28 points above those overnight lows, market negative by about 1.3%. Let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hinks. Every trading day folks, 12 noon Eastern time, right here on Tiger TV, fast market with your host, Kevin Hinks, Tom White, the team at TD Ameritrade Network. They have some great guests, folks. Every single day, they line up three trades, hypothetical, walk you through the option trades so you can understand how you can deploy those same exact strategies that they're using in this market. Kevin Hinks, good morning. Good morning, Tommy and Brian. You know, a lot going on this morning already and we're not even to the busiest part of the week, so big news out there going around. Comments from Jamie Diamond. You've got the IMF lowering global economic growth. Again, I think it's coming out right as a few minutes go as we speak. So that's going down. You've got more China COVID problems. You've got the NFIB small business report coming out. Jamie Diamond making comments overnight. Bank of England buying more bonds. There's a lot going on for a Tuesday, Tommy. And it's not gonna stop, right, Kevin? We've got Fed Minutes tomorrow and we get a big number for CPI on Thursday, man. I was reading, speaking of Diamond, JP Morgan. I was reading on Bloomberg, they had a JP Morgan analyst just talking about, maybe it could be a 5% day on the downside. If you really get a hot CPI print, if you get a low CPI print on Thursday, maybe you're talking about a two to 3% lift. But they made the point, Kevin, and I'll ask you, because I think it's a pretty reasonable point. I think you'd probably agree. But if we get a hot CPI print, I mean, who are the buyers in this market? Because you just talked about Jamie Diamond, right? Saying, you know, next year feels rough. I was reading just before I came on the air, I think that IMF came out, revised growth across the board for all the normal reasons that we're used to. Where does the ability to, you know, become a buyer, Kevin, in the longer term, man, we're gonna get CPI. And I guess we can just wait for those numbers to align. But I was talking about even now we have crude that's gonna weigh on things potentially back to 90, $93. We were in the 78th range. Where do you see this playing out? I guess with Mr. Diamond's call next year, seems pretty reasonable. These calls must start lining up as we come into 2023. Yeah, here's what I've learned, Tommy, over a long career of trading. Looking too far out in the future is a bad idea. Because no one knows what the future is. No one, not even someone like Jamie Diamond with access to a lot of information. That's just his opinion that could easily change. And so what I would do is pay attention to this week's data and trade that data. Now you can have an overall idea of a future three and six months from now, but it better be awfully flexible and dynamic and moving because the data is moving. Trade the data that you see right in front of you and what happens. And remember something, look what happened overnight, Tommy. Markets were lower, things were getting a little unstable and the Bank of England stepped in. Remember that when things get crazy, you're gonna see the Fed, Bank of England, stepped in to stabilize markets. So just when you think there's no one that can buy it, there will be someone to buy it. And so I'm a big believer in trading the data now, looking too far in the distance or what the economy is gonna do is a full variant. So stay, you know how you eat an elephant, Tommy? One bite at a time. It's great advice, man. It makes me think it's great advice. And even, you know, I was looking at just even like fixed income retirement wise, right? And now this is my own personal opinion, staying current, man, not going out too close, right? Everyone's talking about shorter duration. For me personally, Kevin, it just makes me think, well, you're talking, I'm staying real close, man. So I can change things potentially because things could just move so rapidly even in that fixed income, folks, in my opinion, even where yields are where they are. Kevin, you don't know, as you just said, man, nobody knows where we're gonna go, especially when you start going out years. So great point. So we'll stay current with- Tommy, you just never know what can come. I mean, let's face it, where we are right now in the war in Ukraine with Russia, it could break significantly in either direction, frankly, you could see a severe escalation or you could see something break in Russia and a tone change there. So there are so many, I've learned that when you set your expectation, do you think you have it figured out? Careful there. Yeah, anyone that tells you they got it all figured out, folks, spikes up big time because nobody's got it all figured out. You might have an educated, reasonable opinion, right, Kevin? Anyway, I'm saying that's, it's great points, man. So we'll stay current. We'll go to Thursday, Kevin. They're looking for 8.1%, right? The last number was 8.3%. We got a VIX right now, hovering around 32. The rule is 16. If the VIX folks is 16, it's one out of three days. You're expecting a 1% move at 32. That'd be one out of three days. You're looking for about a 2% move. I bring it up, Kevin, because we have the CPI in three days and a 2% move. What's your take on the volatility as we come into Thursday with the VIX trading about 33 right now? You know, it's often that I say this, but a 32 or now 33 VIX is justified. Based on everything going on in the world and where we are in this market, this elevated level of VIX is completely justified. So yeah, that's pretty cool. I see higher VIX in my career. So a lot of traders haven't, but I have, Tommy. It's, you know, I bring up the rule of 16, Kevin, because I was going through it and I read on the front page of Bloomberg this morning, just talking about JPMorgan analysts and saying, you know, maybe we could get a huge down day like we saw on the last CPI print September 13th when we got the August numbers of four to 5%. You know, if we get a soft CPI number, maybe we'll get a rise of 2%. And I said, well, geez, you're getting 5% or you're getting 2% and the VIX is only factor into 2%, that seems like it might be a bargain deal. With that in mind, Kevin, we got some earnings going on this week as we come into the bank earnings on Friday, but everything else going on. What are you guys talking about at 12 today on fast market? So we're going to talk about consumer staples with Pepsi coming out before the open tomorrow morning. So the feature name will be PepsiCo. We're deciding whether we should go all liquids like Coke and Monster Beverage or should we go Procter and Gamble and Clorox. So we're definitely going to talk about consumer staples. Pepsi will be the focus today. It's just a matter of what, which one's the other two that we choose. We're really basing it on like folios data. If they beverage, then we'll do beverages. If they go consumer staples more broader, then we'll go the bigger names, consumer staples, but it's definitely consumer staples day that we're looking at, Tommy. And boy, it's quite a pullback across the board, man. Pepsi solid company from 181 down to 161, this one chopping around this year. And folks, you want to check this out because Kevin, you are familiar with Pepsi. For those not familiar, were you a market maker in the pit with Pepsi? Were we? I was a market maker and the specialist in PepsiCo. I traded it. Basically from 1986 to 2005, I traded PepsiCo. That is a lesson of experience that you and I, and you can't get without the time. I'm going to be watching, Kevin. Thank you so much for taking the time. As always, this morning, man, and we look forward to the program at 12 today and we'll talk to you tomorrow. Thanks for having me out, Tommy, have a great day. Always a pleasure. Folks, check it out every trading day. I've learned so much from the program. If you want to get into options, if you just want to understand options, to understand how they're priced, how the premium is priced into it, how they move, check out the program at 12, and you heard it, and I've heard Kevin talk about it many times, folks. Like I said, like you understand, that type of history, that type of experience, being in the pit, being a specialist in that one equity, you want to check out that program. I'm going to do my best to check it out at 12. And with that, folks, we got the S&Ps down about 18 right now, trading 3,607 off the lows, but trailing a bit. We got about three minutes to go until the opening bell. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be right back. With booming inflation, we are purchasing powers eroded. There's no better place to protect your harder and money-thinning gold. VISTA Gold's flagship asset is the Monk Todd Gold Project in the Northern Territory of Australia. This is Australia's largest undeveloped gold project. 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Dow off 93 points, all the markets well off the lows you had last night. Bitcoin, 19,055 right now, crude. Down to buck 89 from where you were yesterday putting crude back on a daily. As I was mentioning, right? We make a low basically coming right into the month of October. In terms of you come into October at the price of $80, folks, remember that because that's gonna matter, man. Once you get the October numbers, energy prices should be an easing number compared to where we were in August. Now remember you're getting September numbers for, excuse me, yes, September numbers is what we get on Thursday for CPI, okay? And we came into September at a price point of about $90. And you traded down to $76 throughout the month. So you're gonna see some easing crude prices, energy prices from the month of September already fast-forwarding to the next print. We'll see, but guess what? As Kevin Hicks said, stay current folks, stay in the near term, because if you start trying to go out, especially in this market, very difficult because the numbers are just so off where even the best analysts have been. Even somebody like Jamie Dimon, doesn't necessarily mean it's gonna happen in the second quarter of next year. Interesting to hear that already the talk of the Fed coming back in from Kevin Hicks, but that is how quickly it would be, right? As in, if things really get that bad, folks, right? You saw the Bank of England, if things really do get that bad, at least to the Fed's credit, at least, okay? We should have gotten off zero a long time ago, folks. We couldn't fight the bullet. You're not supposed to be running a 0% interest rate as you have the markets doing what they did. Basically, since when? 2000, 2008, you know, that of their abouts, that whole area. You don't wanna have that happen so that you have the ammunition to go the other way as in you have the ammunition to cut when you need it. Well, we're gonna have some ammunition to cut because we're probably gonna get rates near 4.5% at least before, given the Fed ample room to cut if they need to to bring things down. Maybe we're gonna get even higher, right? That is the possibility for sure. Okay, let's jump around and see what else we have going on. It is Prime Day. So interesting headlines, always headlines, man. Amazon, there's no such thing as bad press, right? I guess when they're out there talking about Prime Day, they're talking about a warning. Guess what? I said, oh yeah, that's right, it's Prime Day. Maybe I'll have to check out if they have anything good. Meanwhile, it's a Prime Day warning. Some discounts, maybe price hike. Study shows, pretty good, right? You call the sale, you increase the price and people say I have to buy it now so I don't miss out on the offer. And yeah, I'm not sure how I feel about this one, man. This is obviously pertinent to the times that we're in excess inventory, slow down to the economy. You're gonna see the sales going into the holiday season as they're worried about the holidays. They're gonna try and front load that, worried about the holiday season. What are they gonna do? Get ahead of your competition, man. It does make sense. Get ahead of the competition because people are only gonna have X amount of dollars to spend, especially right now with inflation rising. Get those sales early before people realize they get late in the holiday season and they potentially wanna tighten up their purses and their wallets for whatever reason it may be necessary or not. So today, they're hosting the second big sale exclusively for Prime numbers. This is a Prime early access sale. It's almost like a SNL skit, right? As in you have a sale once or twice a year. Every once, every one or two months you have a sale and somehow you just name it something different. We had Prime Day, then we have early access sale. Then what are you getting early access to? You're getting early access to the next Prime sale. But some of the deals advertised on the site may not be what they appear. So here's a cool tip, folks, when you're on there. This site, camelcamelcamel.com. I've used it forever, folks. It's a great URL. I'll enter it into the Tiger's Den so you can check it out, okay? camelcamelcamel.com. And what you do is any Amazon product you go to. Let's just go to amazon.com and we'll search for a kid's bike, all right? Oh, no, we'll just pull up anything. We'll pull up, all right, let's, no, I don't want to pull up a Peloton. They don't deserve the free press. Let's see what this hat is pushing. Okay, you got a Vineyard Vines classic whale logo cap. What do you do? You copy the URL, folks. You bring it over to camelcamelcamel. You enter that URL right in there. You search it and it's going to show you the entire price history for that cap. Now they're probably not priced. So it's been $28 has not budged since April 7th to October 11th and what are they offering today? 24 bucks. So it is a legitimate sale marked down from 28. It's never been on sale before. It's a great tool to understand the entire pricing history of a product on Amazon. So for context, even better than that, let me see if I can find a product. Cause most products are going to have a dip when it's last primed at Nordic track. Let's see if this thing has some good sales. Let's see. Now this is where you really want to pay attention. You're buying something for $551. We'll copy the URL. We'll enter it in up here. That's all you do. You search it. Yeah. So there's some history for you. So you see the dips, right? This thing has dipped down on certain days to as low as about 447. Looks like the price, 447. What are they offering for it today? 551. Oh, that's not too good of a deal. See that folks? Nordic track. You got a timing. It's 551. But look at this. There's been many instances that this thing has somehow shot down to the area of 447 for various reasons. All right, I'm not going to click there. But you get the point. It's a great tool and interesting. This is the press that Amazon's getting right now. And the research they're talking about, they track prices for nearly 15,000 products. And this is going so far back though, which is right. I would just bring up that camel, camel, camel. It was an easy segue. And yeah, not surprising, right? That all sales are not the same. Not sales at all. Camel, camel, camel. It shows you. I just look up everything that I'm doing, you know? Whether, you know, if you're buying something for 12, 13 bucks, but you're ever buying something for the Nordic track, right? You see that? Oh, what a bargain. It's less than a hundred bucks off. Well, guess what, man? You know, it's been 612 too. Check that out. So they're calling it list price of 649, right? This thing ain't 649. This thing is 612 all day last year into January. All right, inflation got you up to 649. This thing was priced at 612 for the better part of the year. Not sure who's paying the spikes up there, but nonetheless, you see the dips on big sales. All right, what else do we have pulled up? We talked about the rule of 16. So I was Googling it. What pops up? A nice informational URL from who? TD Ameritrade, thinkorswim. Here's the rule of 16, folks. If you have not heard it, we'll check in on the mix. Okay, we get the market down to about 55 right now. You get the volatility index, CBOE volatility index based off S&P premium for puts and calls, 33.54. And the way that you wanna understand how this is pricing and what type of moves is when the VIX is at 16, as I stated with Kevin, it's expecting a 1% move about one out of three days. When you go to 32, you double the VIX, you double the percentage move you're expecting every one out of three days. So right now we're right near about 32. It's expecting a 2% move every one out of three days. If you're at 24, 1.5% move. Now it's interesting because as I stated with Kevin, I don't think that's that bad right now. With the volatility that potentially comes down the line on CPI on Thursday, but here's the mental calisthenics you gotta go through folks, okay? If it was that easy, everybody would be doing it. All right, volatility is fairly high. You put this thing on a daily basis, okay? You go back to the beginning of the calendar year when we begin getting all the volatility. Haven't seen the VIX much higher than this, okay? 35, 36, 37 and 38, we made it to a high recently 34, 88 on September 28th for what it's worth. At least you understand it folks and that's when you get to make the opinion, right? Do you think the market might trade more than that? Well, you can pay for the premium then because the premium is only priced in a 2% move one out of three days and CPI is on Thursday. You think that's too much? You can be the one selling the premium if you want to or vice versa. Market sliding a bit, S&P at 3600. Stay tuned folks, we'll be right back. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities. Subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. 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An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor for side fund services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold. Traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Welcome back, folks. We get the S&P's negative by 27, just under 3,600 night. Right now, I'm gonna take this Fibonacci off there because that's not needed anymore. Basically a full retrace of the acceleration you had higher back in this thing out again. Excuse me, pretty critical area, right? We come down on October 3rd to 3,571. You're looking at five red days. Take us from 3,800 to 3,597. We come into the CPI print on Thursday morning and hold on to your hats, man. And we got Fed minutes tomorrow as well and then we get some earnings this week as well. Other news out there? Google selects Coinbase, so Coinbase. We'll jump over to them in a moment. To take cloud payments with cryptocurrencies and we'll use its custody tool over there for Coinbase, I would be very careful in this one, folks, even though you have Coinbase up today when you get the S&P's down about 28 points, Coinbase, up $1, 152, but folks, take a look at this chart, which is why I bring it up, right? That's a three-year weekly. It goes public at 429. When does it go public, folks? April of 2021, okay? Do you remember where Bitcoin was trading at? In April of 2021? Yeah, that's when it first got to 65,000. God bless him for getting it back above that price point to 69,000 after trading down to 30,000 and then the air comes out, folks. And where does this bar we're talking about? You got to go back almost five years, folks. A five-year weekly, futures start trading in December of 2017, Bitcoin under that price point. Almost five years later, Coinbase goes public right near all-time highs in April of last year and then we put it back to Coinbase, folks. Yeah, I would be very careful even on deals like that for Coinbase profiting. Coinbase was making a lot of money, folks, in trading. The trading in crypto has just dried up dramatically. Just take a look at Robinhood for a similar chart from 85 bucks on the IPO. That's a weekly, all right? You were up there for some time, man, but yeah, you've been trading at basically 10 bucks since January of this year, 10.16 for Robinhood off the lows of 681. But both those companies are making so much money off trading. I saw something today about an NFT and non-fungible token. That one of the Paul brothers, Logan Paul, I think, bought or one of them that's into crypto and it said something and it was pretty much a clickbait article. I think I didn't click on it, but it makes sense in the times, man, that they bought an NFT for like 685,000 bucks and now it's worth $10. Yeah, NFTs are making a lot of money on those as well. So I would stay away from Coinbase even though they're making some deals. All right, we talked about earnings. American Airlines, they're out with their numbers. Jumps after raising third quarter revenue forecast. Revenue in the three months ended September 30th up 13% from the same period in 2019. So that's the interesting one, right? Compare it to 2019 in terms of where you were. We'll jump over to the airlines. They're getting a lift. American up 1% as the markets are down, but there's your volatility, man. It gives it back on the open. Ouch, let's jump over to some of the others. Delta, so much for that short-lived joy. Delta back actually now in the red after getting some positive news in the airline industry. We'll go to United, similar deal in the red by a third percent United as they drop out. Look at that. United industry down almost $2 on the open. Let's see, domestically, Southwest. They trade lower as well. Man, these airlines. JetBlue down about half a percent. We jump over to Cruises. This'll be a good segue. One argument you could make for carnival is that it's shopping around at the lower portion of the trend line that it's been in. And that trend line folks goes back. Let's back it up. Yeah, to basically the highs this thing was in where it was at 25 to 30 bucks about a year and a half ago. June of last year, you've been trading lower, bouncing around near the lows. Would not be buying this thing for the long-term, but if you are looking for a little bit of a trade potentially, and Norwegian, had an upturn channel breaks out of it, Norwegian, a little bit closer to the top of the portion of its channel line versus carnival. Now that's a good segue into one ship that is not on the carnival fleet of vehicles, I believe. And that is the Ritz Carlton Super Yacht. So check this out. A first look, this thing is three years delayed, but it's coming live now. And yeah, it would make sense that you have some elite yachts. Why not, right? They have plenty of elite hotels. It's gonna set sail for the first time this month. Who's the biggest investor? Oak tree capital, all right? Big Wall Street money, of course, or something like this. It was stalled construction, the pandemic, exacerbated supply chains, et cetera. It holds 298 passengers and it's gonna cruise from Barcelona to Nice on October 15th. Later this week, they can watch your kids. Read down here for 45 bucks. There you go. Supervised Ritz Kids Program in its own playroom, 45 bucks for a three-hour session. You want a non-surgical facelift? No problem, they'll take care of that for $395. Can't make this stuff up, folks. But nonetheless, interesting, as premier yachting takes place. And I wonder what the cost would be, right? Not gonna be cheap. That would be my, yeah, they don't have the price in here. Of course they don't. But nonetheless, it comes. All right, what else do we have pulled up here? Yeah, talking about J.P. Morgan back to this article real quick. This was the part of the article I was talking about to kick off the program. If you weren't listening, I was talking about the CPI. J.P. Morgan's talking about big volatility coming down the line on Thursday. Could even be a negative 5% day if things are hot on the inflation trend. If we get a low number, okay, you could see the S&P potentially rise one to two is what they talk about. But the data point that I like they're looking at is against the top 10 economic indicators. Okay, you're talking about GDP, you're talking about payroll, CPI, one of them of course, retail sales, right? Jobless claims, CPI year over year. Look at the decline we're talking about folks. That's correlation of economic surprises versus consensus and S&P returns for the top 10 economic indicators. And that's over a 10 year period. And CPI by far the economic surprise to the downside bigger than any other of the 10 economic indicators. And I would not buck that trend until the data proves it. Kevin made some great points saying, what do you do, man? What do you do? How do you look forward? You look forward and you stay current because if you can just figure out what's happening in the next two or three months folks, boy, you will be so far ahead of the game and that one is as difficult as ever right now. All right, let's jump around to some of the fang stocks as this market just continues to melt. Amazon on their early access pride and day sale down 2.3% to kick things off. Microsoft shares down 1.4%. You look at Microsoft, man. We're coming back to the 618 of the entire move higher from COVID 132 up to 350. You're back to almost 215 from Microsoft. Google, they're under the 50% as well. You're down a little bit today for Google at 98.54. We jump over to Tesla. Not sure what that Fibonacci number is. We'll take that one off but Tesla down to 222 bucks. And yeah, my dad was talking about this yesterday. Basically lost what 90 bucks in the period of a few weeks, right? Yeah, from 90, yeah, even let's go back 20 days. Yeah, there it was. From September 21st, three weeks, this thing loses 30%. I don't know how he gets away with it, folks. Any other CEO playing games with Twitter and taking the attention up that you have on that level, I don't think that they would deal with that one. It's a tough one. All right, jumping around. S&P right now, negative by 27. And we do, we got to call it. We got to call on Michael from Orman Beach. Michael, good morning. Thanks for hanging on the line. What can I do for you, man? Tommy, I've heard you and your dad talk about a number of times the, is it US Treasury Direct.org where they have the I-Bond, that's 12 months. Could you possibly give us the correct contact information for them? Sure, we'll pull it up. We'll pull it up after the great folks and we'll take a look at it. So you're talking about I-Bonds, I think it's 9.62% folks. That rate guaranteed through this month, TreasuryDirect.gov is what it is, Michael. We'll talk about it right when we get back. Stay with us, stay tuned, folks. I'll pull it up. You should check this out as well. We'll be right back. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tigers Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other Tigers and Tigresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tigers Den and Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well. So it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. 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For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We've got the S&P's down 31 points. That's almost nine-tenths percent of the red right now, trading at 35.94 and NASDAQ 100. You're up 1.1 percent. The Dow off one-quarter percent right now at 29,178. We're talking to Michael from Orman Beach and he had a great question, folks, about series I bonds. So Michael, the website to kick things off most importantly is treasurydirect.gov. Now you can just search for these. They're series I like inflation, okay? I bonds, folks. And I'm just at the website right now, treasurydirect.gov. If you scroll down, it's right on their homepage, okay, series I savings bonds. You jump over to this. Now to understand it, this rate is locked in for six months when you purchase those I bonds, okay? They reset the rate on November 1st. So you have, and they do it twice a year, okay? So you have until October 31st, folks, if you want to purchase these, you can purchase up to $10,000 per person, per calendar year, okay? So you could do one for you, one for your wife if you wanted to, up to 10,000, whatever it is, people in the house, children as well, I believe. And then a new calendar year, you can send another. You need to hold them for at least a year, okay? There's no penalty after five years, but the only penalty if you take them out after a year. So let's say, Michael, you buy them right now, you take them out after a year. You give back three months of interest, okay? So you give back about a quarter of the year's interest. Well, at almost 10% right now, folks, 9.62. Not even a bad deal. If you take it back out in 12 months, you give back a quarter of that, you're still talking about, what, 7%, something like that. So it's a great deal. I bring it up, and I'm sure you've heard about it, Michael, this month, because they do reset that rate. It's based off some form of the CPI, folks. The inflation part of it on changes in the non-seasonally adjusted consumer price index for all urban consumers is how that's done, but it's locked in for six months as a fixed rate, and you get that rate for six months. So even if you buy it sometime this month, you get that rate for six months, and then they compound it. And I'm not sure for each minor child. It might be $10,000 though, Johnny, so check it out, man. There are ways to do that. And these have always been around, folks, but these numbers have never been this high. And you can keep it in there for 30 years, if you want to, as that rate gets reset. Michael, thanks so much for calling, man. You have a great one. Folks, thanks so much for tuning in. Stay tuned. We got our man Basil Chapman. We got volatility, S&Ps down 33, Basil's up next, folks. Stay tuned. Have a great Tuesday.