 Hello and welcome to the weekly run of video with me Dave Madden today's date is Tuesday the 29th of May 2018 At the time has just gone 11 20 per the summer time Ordinarily the week the weekly update video is done on Monday, but yesterday was a bank holiday in the UK So taking a look at what's been going on in European markets as we can see this major sell-off Europe and in terms of equity markets today Essentially, this is all down to political uncertainty in both Italy and Spain I've taken a look at Italy first of all Carlo Cattarelli has been enough is going to be inserted as a caretaker Prime Minister in Italy. It's the aim of the move It's actually just bring about a small bit of political stability in Italy But we are essentially looking at new general elections within the next months or as towards the back end or towards the beginning of 2019 if there could be general elections And if the as early as August or so we're talking about the the beginning of next year Essentially the rise of the five-term movement and the legal party anti-establishment anti-euro anti-EU anti-establishment parties has really worried traders Especially as that there's talk that Italy is looking as kind of looking some of these politicians are looking to take Italy Out of the euro this is really rattled the Italian government bond market would put major pressure on Italian banks and also Italian stocks as a whole Over in Spain. There's also political certainty over there Prime Minister Rahoy is on thin ice He's facing if all in all confidence on Friday, and obviously we could be looking at a snap general action in Spain in the near term as well Combination of both has really just I can have really ignited the euros on debt crisis And it's really highlighted the divisions between southern Europe and northern Europe. So even though predominantly The problem of selling is in Italy in Spain We're also seeing the likes of the CAC and the DAX and also the FUTI being dragged lower as well Just because sentiment in Europe as a whole is is quite negative So they're the kind of major stories in terms of macro issues over the past few days Taking a look now at the week ahead and the week ahead can be found on our on our website Under the news and analysis section here It is week ahead and then click along here to find the this article here week ahead us done from payrolls manufacturing PMI and first group results So a quickly scan through the major events of the week So looking head to tomorrow over in the US on Wednesday. We have Dix Sporting Goods Group have for first First quarter numbers coming out on Thursday We have a full year figures from first group here in the UK the travel operator On Thursday morning, we have the Eurozone CPI numbers out This is going to be a pick a particular importance CPI the inflation rate in the Eurozone is nearly at a one-year low It's being it's been a decline and it's obviously going in the opposite direction to where the European Central Bank wanted So if the price so if the if prices continue to fall It would suggest demand is quite weak and that is precisely the direct opposite of what the European Central Bank wanted Obviously, the euro itself is at a major pressure given what's going on in Italy and Spain On Friday, we've manufactured PMIs from the basically all the major European countries This will also be an indicator of how well the region is doing. We have to see a bit of a slowdown It's something economic indicators in the Eurozone This could be we could see further proof that the that the the region is going through a bit of an economic soft patch And obviously the entire block as a whole is in focus given what's going on in relation to politics in both Spain and Italy First quarter numbers are from upper company in Fitch and Friday And obviously we also have the US done from Peril's figures coming out on Friday as well Which would probably be one of the major events of the week So turning now to taking a quick look at a number the markets Basically essentially we're a sea of red as far as the European equity markets are going are also looking For a lower start to both the two eurozone markets as well to US markets as well So the FTSE 100 obviously had a terrific run for a couple of months But as you can see the back end of last week and the last couple of sessions are being very much Very much in the red. So after actually going out to hit a record high Only only this day last week We're actually giving it giving back consider about to grown but seeing as we had effectively had a rally for about two months a Bit of a pullback isn't going to be a surprise and especially what's going on in the eurozone It was always gonna it was also going to actually drag non eurozone countries into the vein too So take a look here on the on the FTSE 100 We could be looking at finance financing support potentially in around the 7,600 area at this level here I think I'll stop it here We can find some support coming into play in around the 7,400 and 82 The market's been coming off quite sharply the last few sessions What we've seen here clearly is a swing from positive momentum to negative momentum on the MACD histogram the back to indicator So as the market's moving lower, we are seeing a steady increase in negative momentum. So We could see the downward move continue in the near term It's only when the the political Uncertainty in the likes of it in spain looks to clear up But then we actually see a potential resumption of the wider upward trend and if you do look to continue to Continue the wider upward trend. We could be looking heading back up towards 7,800 or up towards 7,900 The DAX also is very much in the red today given the General uncertainty in the entire block as a whole DAX like the FTSE and enjoy a very positive run for about eight weeks As you can see here very impressive upward movie at multi-week high multi-month highs We saw only this day last week on the Germany 30 on the DAX But as we can see it's been coming off quite aggressively ever since you actually traded itself of the tour They moving average this red line here But I still managed to hold above it for the time being similar to the FTSE We've seen a sell-off in the in the last few sessions and that is to be confirmed by the steady increase in negative momentum here So how's the markets moving lower the negative momentum momentum with the bears Momentum with the sellers is increasing so we could see market to continue to push lower from here I should we continue to push lower from here We could be heading back down towards 12,600 or perhaps this blue line here the fifth and moving average comes to the play at 12,547 Move to the upside cover run into resistance in around the 12,900 or 13,000 mark and if you go north of the 13,000 We could be heading back for is the recent high in around this area here of 13,200 Take a look not at the market that I suffer the most we take a look at the Italian market first of all I don't follow up idea the Spanish market as you can see here It gives you a magnitude of the sell-off that we've seen here in the Italian market So the marketing market has been has been declined Pretty much since the beginning of May And as you can see here as the markets been pushing lower There's been a steady increase in negative momentum We've seen no signs that the at this sell-off is actually is coming to an end the markets pushing here The the move on today's session here actually has managed to take out the lows of March So we're not created fresh 2018 lows, but also levels not seen Since since July and August in 2017 So we are talking about you know 10 months lows 9 10 month lows on the on the Italian 40 The the footsie maybe so if you need to push on south from here We could really get it back down towards 21,000 I think I saw the 21,000 the next big level to watch out for Well, we this this price that area here of 21,500 21,000. Sorry 20,000 532 quite a bit of both resistance and support in around the 20,000 500 mark If I'll March last year and also April and May last year to We really want to be moving back say north of say 22,000 At the very least taking off the two or two moving average, which comes to play at 22,700 This red line here before we can become confident that this recent negative move has come to an end Just take a look now. What's going on the Spanish market? So the Spanish market as you can see has also had a bit of a bit of a sell-off in the last few sessions Positive it's still just about in positive momentum as you can see positive momentum is actually in decline So as the market is moving lower, we are seeing positive I could fade away so we could look at retesting the recent lows the The we couldn't be looking at be at a testing the the recent The recent lows that we saw in March of which come into play in at 9,327 and if you go south of there, we could really get any back down towards 9,235 So as you can see here been a fairly example a good example of a downward trend on the on the spain 35 Essentially while we hold south of the journey moving average which comes to play Just north of 10,100 the outlook for the market is likely to be to be negative And if you take out this level here, you must reach the the march lows about 9,327 You could be like heading back down towards the February low of 9,235 Take a look now at what's going on the oil markets First up first to look at is a Brent crude oil So obviously we saw fresh 42 bottom highs hit on the oil market last week There's a lot of talk that both Saudi Arabia and Russia are actually going to look to kind of ease up On the production freeze that they've had in place for some time now So that's a lot of speculation. There's got to be increased production in the near term The OPEC OPEC of the meeting next month on this talk, we're going to see an increase in production So that was the perfect excuse for a bit of profit taken because the oil market has been essentially in a strong upper trend for about 11 months The markets come off here off as off as multi multi multi year highs. It's been a steady increase in negative negative A negative momentum. So this this this downtrend that has been in the last couple of sessions We could see a drift a bit further We could see a drift down to the recent lows of 7310 But given that's been in such a strong upper trend if we if that upper trend does look to resume We're going to look at heading back up towards the 80 dollar mark for Brent fruit Take a look now what's going on on WTI. It's a fairly similar looking chart for WTI In that it recently hit 42 month highs, but we have seen a fairly sizable sell-off given that given There is so much speculation about we're going to see increased production from OPEC next month from the likes of us from the likes of Saudi Arabia and Russia So as you can see here, actually on WTI That she meant to drop back below the 50 moving average is this blue line here And one remains south of the 50 moving average at 67 64 The likelihood we could see a bit of further downside pressure in the near term And if you do meant to drift a bit lower We could be like heading back down towards this yellow line here the 180 moving average Which comes into play at 65 20 And if you go south of there It could dig us back down towards the April low of 61 78 But given that's been an upper trend for about a year or so if we do see the upper if the wider upper trend Look to uh Look to fall back at the place We could be looking any back up towards $70 a barrel or the recent high of 72 79 Take a look now what's going on on the euro versus the u.s. Dollar So the euro has been losing ground against the the u.s. Dollar for about five or six weeks now It's been a solid downward trend since mid to late april been driving lower here We're not seeing any signs of the of this a lot letting up so far We've even taken out the november low With which uh, which came into play um 116 sorry 115 to 54. So we are talking, you know multi multi lows levels last seen Really since july last year on the euro versus the u.s. Dollar The next area to keep on that forward to the downside will be 115 and south of that coming into play potentially at one This area this area here at 114 79 and if you go south of 114 79 We could be looking at heading back down towards 114 the figure We'd in order for us to and if any and if you do see any pullbacks in the euro versus the u.s. Dollar We currently support coming to play in around the 116 area or the 117 area We'd really need to be taken out the um the late may high of 118 29 before we get any kind of confidence that the euro is actually looking to Do kind of have a have a full and sizable correction I take a look now at the british pound versus the u.s. Dollar Same restoration that's been losing losing ground steadily for the last five or six weeks versus the um versus the pounds We lose the ground for the last five or six weeks versus the u.s. Dollar has been in a steady downward trend here As you can see we've been traded low nearly as far low as 132 If you continue on in this downward trend the next year to keep an eye for we've won 31 and south of that In around 130 27 we see a lot of a few a few occasions in october november last year in around in around the kind of 130 27 130 130 30 area we didn't see it supportive into play another occasion. So keep an eye on for that levels to the downside Should we continue to push out should we see any any kind of bounce back? We may fight to support in around the 133 area or perhaps up as high as 134 50 Well, that's all for me this week. Thank you very much