 Welcome to GLAS at news or Dan for short. My name is Rob and today Want to just take a step back and take a look at the possibility that Maybe I'm a little bit too bearish and I could be wrong now on this channel I may know that I have been super bearish for quite some time So we're just gonna take a look at some possibilities that are out there So I just want to stress everybody to not be a thumbnail investor and look at the thumbnail and title Go whoop Rob's wrong time to go sell my kids my kidneys and my house and buy Bitcoin everything else It's not how it's gonna work So let's just break this down the first thing we do is talk about the bull case for Bitcoin and crypto Then we're gonna talk about the staking video we did yesterday and then lastly and this is gonna be the most important piece of this video and It's all about the stock deal paradox everything that we talk about is good information But the last piece is probably the most important information I could put out So stick around for that and then lastly we'll do a little Q&A. So let's just jump right in shall we so the first thing I want to talk about is this was a newsletter that came to me Yesterday and it's from Philip Philip Swift Who is the creator of a lot of the different charts you see on looking to Bitcoin? Look into Bitcoin commas a great website. It's 100% free and they have high quality Bitcoin charts I mean you really want to know and Actually, I've reached out to Philip. He's supposed to be on the show at some point whenever he's not too busy But that's a whole other video. So the newsletter that came out The first couple sentences were pretty Revealing he says I continue to believe that the market will soon switch from selling traditional risk assets such as Bitcoin and a risk off environment right now Bitcoin is seen as a risk on To instead realizing that much of the risk in fact lies with the governments and their currencies now The second part I could totally agree with but the first part or people are gonna switch off to see it as a Say as a risk off assets. I was like, I don't believe I I'm sorry I just don't see it, but I was like, maybe I'm wrong. So I took a look at a couple of charts Just to see what the price action has been so Bitcoin. I mean today is pretty flat I think it's well, it's a year one hour zero percent 24 hour up to zero point one percent Seven days it's down negative one and a half and in 14 days negative one in 30 days three percent I was like, hmm, that is interesting because that doesn't seem too regularly volatile like we've seen with The other markets and I compared this to the S&P 500 and we can see right here that again over one day S&P is down to almost two and a half percent five day negative one. All right, but one month negative seven percent and of course six months negative 18 and one year negative 20 percent, but this one month part it's like things are It's like things are slowing down for our correlation because in one month The S&P is down seven and a half percent in one month Bitcoin is only down half less than half 40% of what that is And also take a look at Nasdaq and the same thing in last month. It's down almost 10% again Bitcoin's only down negative So it's kind of odd that these things are just slowing down So maybe the part that Philip talks about is right, but I further wanted to break it down I took a look at Ben's website, you know the crypto verse Links in description. You can check it out. Now that one is not free, but it's totally worth it And I took a look at just so far October. We're sucking Let's be honest negative one percent, but not as bad as traditional markets And then September which I thought was gonna be much much worse negative two and of course august was awful july Not bad And of course june was our worst month negative 38 and 15 take away june Which was which is what people call the bottom which I don't believe and we'll get to that in a second But that's the worst month we could have had take that out. We're not doing too bad So I jump back here and I think to myself, okay, well, what's your what's your proof besides that philip? And he first he talks about we continue to hold the zone level a which I'm not a ta person But I can kind of figure this out that we're range bound, right? There's been some peaks and valleys But since that big dip in june down to 17 four 17 five some around there We're pretty much moving sideways. So i'm like, well, that sounds pretty good. What else you got? And then down here he talks about the fear and greed index, which let's be honest Everybody's still sharding their pants We're in extreme fear Depending on who you are. I'm not I I see some more downside, but it's not like Now I've been around you've been around if you're here watching this you've been around for a while So it's not like it's a big mystery about where things are going and then uh going down there's a couple of things He talked about which gives me some hope where I think to myself. Maybe I was wrong about this bear market And he talks about the nupl net unrealized profit and loss This is subtracting the realized cap by market cap You obviously the extent to which the market is holding profits or losses Right now when there's sustained periods of paper losses We see major cycle lows being formed as that happens Many participants capitulate as they feel disillusioned to quit the market at the worst possible time I get it's like if you're quitting right now I mean it's up to you, you know, I can't tell you what to do about your dad and not a financial advisor But I think this is like the one of the worst times to quit. I could be wrong. Maybe Bitcoin goes to zero. I'm just kidding. I don't think it's going to do that but The question then is Well, let's take a look at the nupl and let's also take a look at who's holding because that gives us a little greater insight So this is the nupl. First of all, let's talk about what it is It's derived from market value and realized value Realized value takes the price of each bitcoin when it was last moved So when you subtract the realized value from the market value, we get unrealized profits and loss And that can tell us when there's a bottom and we've again Been pretty darn rage amount. That's why I like looking looking at bitcoin. They're charts. They're very simple Like I'm a simple tin. I'm not very smart and I like I like colors Like things are simple and this is very simple, right? I mean, we talk about what it is and we can see that in this euphoria green zone Or green zone. This one. I've been a pretty good time to sell around 19,000 326 in 2017 also uh, january 14th at 40,000 be a pretty pretty good time and then of course to accumulate It's almost the same thing. We see it just going on sideways. So there is that part that made me think Again, like well, who's holding who's propping this up? Who's keeping us going? There's a great website. It's called into the block It's very cheap. I don't have a link. I have a I don't even have affiliate link or a link but it's just into into the block.com And there's a couple of things to make mention of which is this The holders who are making money who are in the money and out of the money Well in the money is still almost 50 percent Which is pretty amazing and then out is 49 percent, which is a good good amount So I thought to myself. Well, who's holding all this stuff? And then if we drill it down By time held there's two there's two ways do it Addresses by time mail for bitcoin and the balance by time mail. Did you know we talked about this on dca show on friday? That coming over here Probably can't see that that well Okay People who have held bitcoin for a year or more. That's 30 million addresses Those are called holders. They call them cruisers between 1 and 12 months 14.79 traders Are less than one month So what is the percentage of that? Check this out People who have held bitcoin a year or more are 63 percent That's a lot and they're just not selling and reason why I know they're not selling is because look over here holders one year plus They've actually are the only group that's increased They're up almost 2% cruisers 1 and 12 traders down I mean 10 across the board if you really look at like that way and then also balance by time held Holders 13 millions percentage wise same thing 61 33 and 5 and again Well holders are up cruisers are up a little bit but traders are down So these are the ones that are propping it up and if they haven't sold in this amount of time My question is what's going to cause them to sell? So there is that piece And then there's also one more piece as far as a forecast tool because this is going to kind of tell us where we are As far as a bottom indicator now don't put all your money into any chart any one chart look across the board Try to get a little bit more depth. So this one here There's two there's two portions of it There's the the balance price and the cvdd real quick the balance price. It's an on-chain indicator It's trying to identify the lowest price that bitcoin may drop in the future It's calculated by subtracting transfer price from realized price And then the cvdd is the cumulative value coin days destroyed again You can look at all these these charts for free. I look on a bitcoin. There's a link in the description It's not an affiliate link They identify a value of sort to the utxos Uh, they can be thought of as coins moving between wallets. That's really all it is when coins are sent between wallets The transaction has a value of in dollars plus it also destroys a time value in terms of how long So the coin the value is coin days destroyed cvdd tracks the cumulative sum As coins move from old hands into new hands or really wallets And the result is that it has historically correctly forecast the major lows of bitcoin price with good accuracy again I don't believe it but As we take a look at it, I need to break this down for you So we need to know one of the lows for the cycles Thankfully, I created that you can find this to a link in the description Here's the the the time lows for each cycle remember Cycle everything starts with the bitcoin having bitcoin happened in 2012 2013 was an all-time high 2014 was a dip 2015 was a reset then we went into the next cycle 16 7 and 18 19 and 20 so the The high of the first cycle was 29th november 2013 with a price of around 11 27 depending on where you look And then on january 2015th that was the low at 172, which was an 85 percent reduction Okay, got that so just remember this january 2015 remember december 2018. It's like I remember january 2015 december 2018 So if we come over here, oops See these two charts. This is cvdd And this is the balance price So you see where they kind of touch everything So what is that? January 2015 is where they touched And again, can you see another part where it touched again right over here? And that was in december 2018. It's amazing I was able to to not predict But kind of forecast a little bit of where it's going and now If we look over here We are so close We're so close to it just Just on the on the precipice of where it should be. So when we take a look at the balance price And the cvdd it's around 15 900 and the price today is around 19 000. So 15 900 remember that That's important so Again, I don't know where things are going but Maybe I was wrong when I thought that we were going to drop to below 15 Maybe, you know, everybody's calling for like bitcoin to go up. Well, some people are I think those people are a little off But whatever And then a lot of people are calling for bitcoin to go to 12k or 8k or some Some people said 3k gareth salloway. I think just said it's going to go to 3 000 at some point. Well, maybe But maybe we're all wrong Maybe instead of going up a little bit or down a lot a bit Maybe it's just somewhere around 15 9 15 16 000 i'm not for sure But I can tell you this. I think it is going to go a certain way This is also in the block talks about volatility, which we just talked about how not volatile bitcoin actually is It's actually less than 40 percent annualized volatility This is based on the last 30 days of price action has fallen below a key level the last six times bitcoin's volatility fell to 40 percent or below bitcoin's price moved over 20 percent In either direction within two to four weeks Okay, so I know you're like well that doesn't help me Because it goes in either direction. Well, it could go up or it could go down like everybody talks about however Four out of six times four out of six It went down And then two out of six times Or a third it went up So there's more of a chance of it going down Then going up after the volatility becomes what it is and then lastly Our almost last Is This little chart. This is the days since each cycle is bitcoin having the cycle bottom And if you can see that let me blow this up a little bit So this red was the 2013 cycle like we talked about 2012 13 40 15, right So the bitcoin having was 2012 like we talked about from the bitcoin having to the cycle low It was 779 days in 2017 from the bitcoin having in 2016 To the low in 2018. It was 891 days So far We have hit 886 days And who knows if it was the low I will say this If you subtract The time that we have right now. What is it october 16th 17th 16th To first week of june second week of june some around there That's around that's a minus 120 days that would keep us To around 760 days or somewhere around there, which would be the same thing over here So imagine if that was the low if june was the low that would match up almost perfectly with the first cycle I just don't see it. I see how it's like And correct me or i'm wrong here. Maybe it's like this looks like those those times are increasing a little bit So we've got 779 days in the first one 891 days roughly 100 more days, right? Well, what if Another 100 days on top of 891 now we're around a We're specifically 991 days around a thousand days And when that kind of corresponds To the downside But wouldn't also kind of correspond to maybe where we're going here again I don't know exactly where things are going but This is the things that I see and there's just a couple of things that that concern me remember that the things we talk about here Everything's in a bubble I mean, I can't predict everything I mean god knows I did a price prediction video and those are way off Although I did get cardano, right and theta and chain link But I did screw up on the bitcoin ethereum vgx token. Let's be honest So when I talk about these things It's all if everything kind of stays the same even with the with the things that are going on the world if there's a black swan event if I don't know tactical nuclear warheads are used in the crane if the bank of england's Collapses if the bond market collapses if we see another potential outbreak of Of some pandemic or who knows what it is the black swan event happens all that stuff We just talked about the window, right if there's a nuclear war no one's holding on a bitcoin I don't think well, maybe they will but They probably sell a little bit just to make sure they're okay, right? But on the flip side of that And this goes right back to what philip said in this very first paragraph I continue to believe the market will soon switch from selling traditional risk assets as a bitcoin and a risk off environment as people realize That there's so much risk in governments and their currencies There are so many people are getting into the space. I mean these are not like small people Like the black rocks like the mass mutuals, you know those those big n y of melon the oldest bank in the in the us Is providing custody with their trillions of assets under management. I mean add them all up That's over 20 trillion assets under management right there. So we're all in here How long is it before these organizations say, you know what there's an asymmetrical upside? We've got a market cap of under a trillion for Pete sakes apple is at 2.2 trillion one company So maybe like maybe that's the reason for the slowdown. I I can't tell you But it always makes it comes back to this this chart Every one of these squares is a hundred billion dollars And this was in 2020 mind you so it's a little bit outdated wish they'd updated But the feds balance sheet back then was seven trillion now it's nine trillion or eight point nine trillion Billionaires all these guys they got eight trillion Which is ridiculous eight trillion dollars Gold has a market cap of 12 trillion now Stock markets is over a hundred trillion the money supply is 35 trillion global debt 253 trillion global real estate 280 trillion Well, 360 trillion derivatives, you know a quadrillion So just a couple of these squares and stick them into crypto and digital assets. I always look at this and go this is I can understand why the bigger Institutions are getting in But I just don't understand The thought process of traditional markets probably just safer, but again, I could be wrong I think the big thing that's preventing them is regulation so they don't get rug pulled Like mark Cuban keeps doing or keeps getting down to him. Don't sue me and that's what's going on So, uh, let me just think about that in the comment section now. Let's move on just real quick To staking we did a video yesterday It's up right now. It's it was I think one of the most one requested for staking, which was polkadot a little bit longer one But I show you how to use the ledger how to take things off of the exchanges And now you can use polkadot to stake it for I mean a good amount 12 11.9 or 12.9 Percent APY. It's pretty good. I mean pretty good for if you own polkadot. Just let you know also Just so you know, I want to thank I trust for sponsoring the videos. That's right and they are doing polkadot staking So as you all know, I am super biased when I talk about the things that I use and and all that stuff So I've been using I trust for two years and the reason why is because I don't want to pay a lot of taxes in In the us and for Roth IRAs. This is how Peter teal This is how he turned 2000 bucks into five billion dollars with the Roth IRA. You want to know what I'm talking about? There's a link in the description looks just like this And I'd go over that story and why I use Roth IRAs through I trust and that's it So hope that makes sense and then lastly like I wanted to I told you in the beginning All the stuff we just talked about was it was nice. It was good to know a lot of theories but this part right here is The mental aspect I need you to understand And it's called the stock del paradox and I need you to balance between the reality or the brutal reality We're going through right now to the crazy optimism. I see so much in other youtube channels There's nothing wrong with hopeium but it's when there's uncorrelated hopeium that it's just it's Just exhausting and um, I'm just going to show you what I'm talking about. There is a book by jim collins good to great And he took a look at Jim stockdale And I'm going to have him explain you this is about two minutes long and I think this is going to make perfect sense When you hear it As far as like investing and the hopeium and the brutal realities And just to where you want to be so just take a listen Hold on There we go I would like to give you a way of thinking that has been enormously helpful to me That came from the good to great research for dealing with great difficulty And it was what we came to call the stockdale paradox The stockdale paradox Was taught to us by when we were doing the good to great research or trying to make sense of the ceo'sman And in doing that I just by chance happened to get to know admiral jim stockdale who was the highest ranking military officer In the hanoi hilton shot down in 1967 was there till 1974 They could pull him out at any time and torture him and they did It tortured over 20 times And I had the privilege to get to know admiral stockdale And uh We were going to the faculty club one day and I had uh read his book in love and war Which was written in alternating chapters by himself and his wife about their years when he was in the camp And I got depressed reading the book because it seems so bleak. It seems so difficult It seemed you know, it's like we can all endure anything if we know it's going to come to an end and we know when But what if you don't know if it's ever going to come to an end? And you certainly don't know when So I asked admiral stockdale how he dealt with that and he said you have to realize I never got depressed because I never ever wavered In my faith that not only I would get out But I would turn being in the camp into the defining event of my life That in retrospect I would not trade Later when we were up the hill I asked him I said admiral stockdale who didn't make it out as strong as you and he said easy It was the optimists I said the optimists you sounded optimistic. He said no, I was not optimistic I never wavered in my faith that I would prevail in the end, but I was not optimistic. I said, what's the difference? Oh, the optimists always thought we'd be out by Christmas Of course Christmas would come and it would go And then we were going to be out by Easter and Thanksgiving and then Christmas would come again And they died of a broken heart And that's when admiral stockdale grabbed me by the shoulders and said this is what I learned when you're facing You're imprisoned by great calamity by great difficulty by great uncertainty. You have to on the one hand never confuse The need for unwavering faith that you will find a way to prevail in the end With on the other hand the discipline to confront the most brutal facts we actually face And we're not getting out of here by Christmas We are not getting out of here by Christmas everybody. I need to tell you that but that's just the truth And doesn't that sound a lot like some of the things that we go through especially with Constant hopeium out there that big ones going to blah blah blah and there's a mark cap and da da da That's the ones that's crushing that's the one that crushed me in 2018 When I was like, well, I know it's going down, but it'll go back up Everybody's like it's going to come back up it's going to come back up and they were right But they were given like time frames that were like ridiculous That's the big thing I can't tell you the time frames I can't tell you exactly where things are going. I can't tell you You know, I don't have a crystal ball but I can take a look at and go Bull markets don't last forever. We saw that and either do bear markets So when I take a look at these things, I just think to myself It's not a time frame. I don't know the time frames but I can tell you that I can kind of give an assumption of where things might potentially go Again things like this these charts or anything I just showed you they sound good But I don't know exactly when So like 2012 2015 having your time. I did reset same thing in the 16 19 I think this is what's going to happen But what if it doesn't What if the next bull run is 2023 and I miss it and I I keep waiting and waiting and waiting I don't think that's the right option for me Uh, I did a video you can go to dan teaches crypto 100 free and I talked about exactly what I'm going to get out Most of it's dealt with Charts bicycle tops and upls and things like that But what if it doesn't what if we go to 2025 2026 2027 And we have to go that route in my mind And this is gonna be very popular, but it's the truth just like what I talked about with gym stock deal And there's a big difference between investing and worrying about investing as opposed to getting tortured in an imprisonment camp The hanai hotel So I kind of take it as a perspective like things aren't that bad But if I take a look at I go, I don't know when things are going to happen Good things will happen. It just takes time and I can't tell you when But that's why dca and just stick around And yeah, so that's it for today So look if you like today's video and give it a thumbs up consider subscribing And that concludes today for the news if you got to get out of here. It's been 26 minutes It was a long one today. So uh, but I think it was some decent information If you want to stick around we're going to do q&a We're going to do that right now And I'll answer all your burning questions the best of my abilities as we go over q&a And last thing to note is that we did the polka dot video on staking. We've done cardano. We've done Avalanche the next ones will be Cosmos or adam and near protocol and I've been using the ledger for all of those staking opportunities And it's by far the best experience. All right, so that's it for right now So we gotta get our get out of here thumbs up subscribe all good stuff now. Let's get into q&a