 Now folks, let's get over to my man Mr. Tim or as we do every Tuesday and Thursday and don't forget folks You can reach Tim every trading day as a great newsletter at odd or D hyphen oracle.com or CLE That's odd hyphen oracle.com Tim or what's going on? Well, I sent you over some charts and We kind of went through them a little bit on Tuesday, but we didn't really get through them all So I thought we kind of start with what we left off on Tuesday. That'll be awesome though So you just pull you just pull the rug out from the market Tim? Yeah Yeah, I'm thinking We're we're doing what we're supposed to do. We can actually cover that first. No, no, no We don't have to but I mean I'll tell you something. We just went down 98 s and p points in two hours Yeah 98 Yeah, yeah, it's a it's a lot It's a lot it's good. Yeah trend in one point. Yes. Now. We're starting to get panicked. So yeah It's kind of looking forward. No, I trust me. I know that's why I'm bringing it up because what had happened You know, of course Tim will you know looking for that panic and inside the arms that went to 1.93. I think I think we're at 4 7 right now Uh According to Thinker swim or 1 3 1.34. Okay, cool. So Probably need to you know, 30s is not the best day A lot of times fridays are because everybody, you know Goes to the X on friday friday and the mark's gonna crash on monday. So yeah, you know Maybe the signal will line up But you know the two days not even near yet the 10 and the 5 and 10 day or not near yet So, all right, I don't know but you know, let's just go to chart one. Okay. Just stay with us folks one second Okay, tim. I have chart one All right, this This is what kind of covered back on tuesday. I'm thinking something important is close to happening here Yes, uh, and this isn't a we're talking the gold market now folks. Okay. Yeah. Yeah, we're talking the gold market I'm sorry, but anyhow the middle the middle window of this chart is a monthly xcu gold ratio Right and it goes all the way back to like 1984 And I drew some red lines on that ratio and I connected the highs going back to night's heard Uh, actually this chart goes back to 1984, but I connected the highs uh from current You know from current time all the way back to 1994 And also kind of connect the lows here, but we're basically against the upper Trend line going back to 1994. We're pushing against that trend line right now Also connected the lows That's 2016 to 2020. We're pretty much sitting on those lows right now, too So the xcu and a monthly chart kind of boxed in Yes into a support area and a resistance area. Okay, so which way is going to bust? Well You know We might have to skip around here. Well, actually no, we can skip really do whatever you want. I got them all set up, man Okay, let's get to chart two here real quick. Okay Okay, this is this is uh The weekly xcu. Yeah and The xcu gold ratio in the middle window And right above that is the rsi for that ratio And I circled in blue the times when the rsi fell below 30 Yes, and turned back above 30 and those type of signals Which is all those blue lines across the chart right last about six months So we just got a chart here or we got a bicycle here On the weekly xcu gold ratio You know in I think it was like mid-march or early March about you know Maybe a month ago or less and most of the signals last Like I said six months And the minimum rally off these xcu gold ratios when the rsi falls below 30 and turns back up is 0.07 Which then I got a trend line coming down from that dotted red trend line that goes all the way back to 1994 Okay, if we go to 0.07, which is a minimum rally previous times going back to 2014 we'll be above that red line dotted red line right so that would imply We'll be breaking that trend line going back to 1994. So that's like a 30 year trend line. That's amazing. So Yeah, it's a huge break. It's a huge line It really means something on a bigger scale Something we hadn't seen in decades and one of the things he had Tim right that folks should pay attention to Is that we got under that 30, right? So that that when you have these when you're looking at this shot folks, you can see tim did an amazing job They're all circled and so when you get under 30, then you have the shot to basically get much higher. Would that be correct? Right, you basically when the ratio goes down they're selling They're selling the gold stock compared to gold. Yes And so that that's a kind of decimation of gold stock, right? And that's how the markets work which we have they work off a panic Right, you gotta find Indicators that show where the panic rise. So yes, it's kind of a panic sell civil on the gold stocks Right when that ratio goes through the floor, right? So Uh, so, you know gold stocks over the last 2021 oh, yeah in general this ratio has been going down since 2021 and you know most gold stocks Yeah, at best went sideways You know exactly went down according to this ratio. No, there's no doubt. They've been a mess. Yeah Yeah, it's been a mess. So it's it's all like everybody hates it's a it's a it's an old man sport, you know, uh, Bitcoins where to be? You know, I I think that's all going to change here a bit Well, you know, it's so intriguing that we're talking about this because there's no doubt We'll go back six months ago. I mean the bottom line is that you know, the market is saying Hey, you know, maybe bitcoin's the new gold that people have invested in bitcoin that you know saying screw gold Um, and that's what it's and that's what it seemed like, right? I mean, I I can tell you, you know, even I was Kind of analyzing it myself when I'm saying to myself, okay Just as you said, is this the old guy's deal that I'm sitting there thinking You know, would that be right? Then I then I just that thinking I says but you know what every time Not every time any time that I want I can walk down To anywhere I give an ounce of gold and they're gonna give me 2,300 bucks in my pocket. Right So it's like, okay, man. Stay right there folks. Tim and I are coming right back Welcome back folks. Tim or Tom O'Brien. We do appreciate you go ral and I'm proud of what I saw there We have the Dow industrials trading down for 85 Nasdaq's off 185 s and peas are off 61 And that's a downdraft in the s and peas folks of 105 s and pea points We're talking about man. Mr. Tim wood and right now we are talking the gold market We're also going to talk to the s and peas before we're done, but uh bottom line right now. We're talking gold Yes, so this trend line that the tim is going to be a huge deal, man Yeah, it is actually let's go back to chart one again. Okay This is you know This is just a line charts not as messy as they're like a counted chart Yes, but anyhow, you know the the wise cop stuff, you know Was popular for a while and really to get through a trend line You need a sign of strength. Yes, and on that chart I said, yeah, yeah to break that trend line. You're gonna have to see a sign of strength If you notice that trading range Over the last you know six months a year. It's been extremely tight It has you know, I circled in red there. Yeah, so normally you get tight moves You get expansion you get expansion to get back to tight moves market kind of just breathe In and out as you might say so I'm thinking you're going to see a spike On the x a u gold ratio probably through that line And probably sooner than later, so I don't know when it's going to happen But so far we're not through it that line Is around 0.06 Okay, and we're and we're 0.058 Oh interesting Okay, and when Tim's talking about a sign of strength folks, that's going to be wide price spread accelerated volume You get a really you when you look at a chart You're going to say wow, that's a big move if you have to think about is that a big move or not? That's not a sign of strength signs of strength You can see from a mile away after they take place of course. Yeah Yeah, so I'm thinking that's what's going to happen So you see some of these gold stocks start to pop. I don't know what you know This is all monthly charts does mean this is going to happen today or tomorrow or even next week, you know, but I'm thinking I don't know. I mean probably the next couple of months. I would think Well, we've certainly got we've certainly got Tim plenty of gold equities That have shown huge strength in the past two weeks I mean the volumes exploded top side the prices exploded top side And that it would make sense because the lows that were established inside the gold equities, you know Where I mean devastating lows man. There's no doubt about it, you know Gold gold kept moving and yet the gold equities did not move And now what just happened yesterday was that yesterday or the day before You actually had silver moving, you know So silver was lagging and then all of a sudden, you know, we know that silver Is highly volatile a lot more volatile than gold and all of a sudden, you know, silver has two days of monster moves and The volume is still there. We did 130,000 contracts yesterday in the silver market And that's a market that normally does about 30 or 35 000 folks and we're doing 90 000 today So, you know, little by little you're getting buyers in here. Um, and the cool thing Tim is that You know, I was listening to when I was coming into work this morning and One of the analysts on there her name is Gina I think it's Gina. No, it's Abigail. Abigail do little And she's she's a great analyst. I mean, she's a technical analyst But you know what she said which is just music to our is She said man, she says, you know This gold move she says I haven't been paying attention to it But man, that the thing just took off and broke out and now that was the first time That you actually hear something like that. Well that I heard something like that. Let's put it that way And that was cool, man, because you know, we know that gold's been moving for a long period of time right now You know, and you know, people are just starting to pay attention to it Which that's what you need folks for a bull market. You need non believers Non believers are totally where it's at Yeah, I totally agree with you. So You know Go to chart two again. Look at the bottom window there. Okay And uh, it's the weekly XAU and I drew that line across there And uh, this chart's current today, you know, I did a couple hours ago or whatever And it looks like a head and shoulders bottom and we're breaking it through that neckline That neckline can be off a little bit depends how you draw it But you know, it's in this vicinity and it looked like we're passing through it right now on the XAU Golds are actually my pains already broke out. Yes. And the gold stocks are just starting now to perform So, uh, I think this performance still early in the stage. I think we still got time Because I don't think this rally is going to be over anytime soon. I think I think on a bigger time frame, we're going to see something Really really big actually it's a start to look at the bigger trend. Okay Uh, it just Let's go to Let's go to chart four. Okay Yeah, no, listen to him. I I I agree with you man. What has happened folks some of these gold stocks Let's say if a stock's trading at seven well, the high itself is probably 24 25 But that's only saying that the last high that was established in 2011 and that's when Gold was like 1900 versus the 2300 we have right now. So Yeah, I can I can see this difference and I have chat number four up now tim All right, but this is this is a weekly chart and this is uh, Any out of the bottom window is the advanced decline Uh, with the bologna band on it the next one up is the up-down volume Both of them are for gdx and anyhow in a nutshell You don't catch the bottom what I designed this chart to do is catch the trend Yes, how long can you stay on this? So Now when both of them are above the mid bologna band, which they are and they were our Started last week. So it didn't catch the low But a lot of times when you get above the mid bologna band it stays above the mid bologna band Now it didn't happen in the october november december It went up went down went up went back down with you back and forth And the weekly charts are a little bit Uh finicky that way but at least on the weekly we're back on a moment This is a momentum chart. So a major is a momentum of advanced clients and I see volume. So okay It really it catches it. It's meant to design to catch the trend uh, so, um If you look back in uh, 2022 You know, uh, it gave up a cell signal back in Looks like about april april time frame stayed on a cell signal all the way in october Yes Then it gave a bi signal that lasted two three months And then went kind of garbage by cell by cell then gave a cell signal And it looks like about april last year and it kept on a cell signal until october Uh, then it got mushy again. Now it's back on a bi signal. So it's it's not On a weekly time. It's not ideal. So let's flip to chart four. Okay Or chart chart five rather chat five. Okay. I have it Okay, this is the one that really catches the trend and again, it's not designed to catch the bottom Okay, designed to catch the trend and actually we got a break coming here So stay right stay right there. Tim and I are going to be coming right back folks Uh, and we get a call on the line tim. We'll take that call when we're coming back to this is, uh, Tim would tell my brand we do appreciate your growling a problem with this stay right there folks to come right back Welcome back folks. Uh, now that's down 558 magics of 206 s and p's are down 70 And uh, tim, uh, or tom or brian, we are going to go to our man. Jose and lakeland Jose has a question for us tim. Jose. What's going on, brother? Yeah, hi tom. Hi, tim. Great show fellas. Uh, thank you. Hey, um, i'm just curious, uh Yep, uh fed governor cash and carry is it cash and carry? Yes. I'm just curious if the sec is as curious as I am Uh, does this guy make a phone call the family members and say hey Honey buy a buy a hundred put so i'm gonna make a statement in five minutes It's gonna flip this market around. I mean, do they even care? I'm just amazed at these fed governors I mean, I have a question for you isn't your own Powell's decision the final say on whether how many cuts comes Or how much input that these fed governors actually have because i'm real cynical about uh, you know fed governor cash and carry so with with folks and tim what what um We're talking about here is this is that it was cash carry, okay Who came out and cash carry is normally a um dove dove Excuse me and he came out and he said Specifically that he thought that it may be possible that there's no rate cuts For 2024 and that's when you saw the s&p's while right now the s&p's from the highs to the lows are down over 115 points Yeah, so What what does happen hosé is that it's a consensus. It's not just powell It is a consensus But what powell tries to do of course is that talk to the fed governors individually And collectively and come to a conclusion, you know my my my take on this You know is i think we're gonna get at least a couple rate cuts anyway, you know, we'll we'll see where it shakes out um You know, but there's no doubt I mean that was quite a statement that he made particularly and the way the reason the market's paying such attention to it folks Is because he is a dove, you know, but guess what? Okay, so so you have friday jobs number it'll be more than 200 000 jobs created You'll be down another two percent two and a half percent tomorrow Bottom line is look at microsoft down to dollar thirty or something right, you know They're gonna give but they're gonna give the benefit of the doubt to tech stocks You got earnings coming out in two weeks. So blah blah blah to their flip around the market I Yeah, I I agree with you and I think tim does too the bottom line tim has been looking for fear to come in the marketplace We finally have it You know if we get a couple days of it, it's great, you know inside the target's then You know z's bringing up the point and it's so true that you know and tim had brought this up actually last time you were on with Is that we're coming into a new moon and we're coming into the eclipse on the eighth Yeah, so Monday this could really work out really good to you know get us a nice Um, you know entry into the marketplace man. So yeah, I don't I don't know if basil's on the tennis court right now But if he's listening he made a nice call a few days ago He said he's taking off long positions right now. So yes. Yes. No doubt very nice Okay, listen man. We appreciate it. Jose. You have a great one a safe one Okay, thanks for calling Thank you. Absolutely Pretty cool, huh tim? I know yeah Yeah, I'm not a fundamentalist. So I I don't really keep track of that stuff, but you know It you know news is expected by the market. So the market is expected pretty out Let's get back to the uh, technical analysis here. Yep And uh, I have a chart So actually put chart four Was the weekly up-down volume advanced decline indicators Which right now both of them above the mid-bolinger bands. So on the weekly time frame, it's on a bicycle Okay, the one you really want To flip to a bicycle which doesn't catch the bottoms But does catch the trend And it's been on a cell signal, you know, we saw this chart before back in 2021 And it's been basically in a downtrend ever since So I got the middle chart there, which is the gdx monthly gdx And I got a point there it says so you need a science drink through that trend line. Yes, I see it to me This looks like it. Yeah, it looks like a head and shoulders bottom And while I've been saying kind of over the last week or two Said mark is probably going to get stronger Only reason why you're up against these trend lines all over the place I know and to get through a trend line you need to sign his strength Well, that means the market's going to get stronger And I'm saying and it has that the gold market has got stronger Even in the context folks that you've had more price spread and the volume has got explosive man I mean on every one of these equities, you know, so that's happening man The momentum's getting heavier, which is really cool. Yeah, right So so anyhow both those charts as the monthly Top one, which is a cumulative down volume and the bottom one chart advanced decline If both those to get up right now both of them The bottom one's right at that trend line If not on it and the top one is a little bit short yet But once they get above those trend lines Usually doesn't whip like back and forth like the weeklies or dailies do Once they get in the trend they say in their trend. I say most of the signals Yeah, most of the signals, you know The last signal was back to 2021. So that's been a three-year signal Wow one before that looks like about a year and a half the one before that looks like about a year and a half And you know So I'm saying once this gets above the mid-Bowlinger band, you're looking probably at a minimum a year and a half of rally so a lot a lot of Up not every month is going to be an up month But the trend probably over the next my I'm thinking at least a year and a half It's going to be up. But but we need to get up. We need to get above the mid-Bowlinger band So I think the bottom was in back in october or uh, august of 2022 um, if you flip back to uh Switching around here a little bit. No, that's good. But But if you go back to chart three, okay And this is momentum chart momentum actually works extremely well. It does you know, the Uh, the bottom window is this monthly slow stochastics Of the xa u this chart goes all the way back to 1985 And shows all the bicycles and if they gave a bicycle back in august 2022 You brought that is probably That the head of a head and shoulders bottom Then we went up for a couple three months four months Whatever and we kind of went sideways for the last couple of years creating a right shoulder And so now we're going to break through the neckline And uh, probably the uh Slow stochastics Will get back above the plus 80 area which in the previous signs when I got back above plus 80 It was a multi Month if not a multi-year decline. So but we're early in the stages here. So I think the most Bread or the most better going beyond the bread is probably in the next year and a half And you know folks really my opinion. We're early in this this uh bull market. No, listen man I I agree with you and in order to just realize tim when you're going through these shots I wish I'm going to actually hunt out on the internet and see if these interviews are there because they might be um When tim and I folks were on And I'm going all the way back now into the 90s, okay And when gold was basically well, it was 250 250 that we caught on to it I bought it at 280 250 Um, and I remember you specifically tim because what was going on there is that the 20 year bear market It had been going sideways right at at lows, right? And I remember you specifically saying that when this line breaks Forget it and of course the line broke And the key here folks is to understand as tim's going through this with us Set it up set your stocks up, man Because the bottom line if it breaks you have really often erases stay right there tim and I are coming right back Welcome back folks tim or tom are brown. We do appreciate your growling a problem with us. We are what Number child would you like tim? all right, so uh how we can flip to uh The actually the last jar we don't have a lot of time okay And I this is that um the middle or the top windows the rsi for the The ratio right below which is spx tilt ratio. Yes, and I printed this chart 1240 Uh, I think 12 1246 looks like uh today Your time. Yes, and I want what I wanted to point out is I got a circled up there In the left hand corner is 70.35 And every time this is just a short term chart. Okay, uh, so just it doesn't It picks up maybe multi-day declines, but not multi-week or anything You'll maybe get three four or five day decline whatever And uh over the last couple of days you only got like two three day decline, but today at uh 1246 uh eastern time rsi for this ratio was uh 70.35 And that was pretty much high for the day. So every time this ratio gets rsi gets above plus 70 You're at a short term high my point is that picked the high today Wow, okay, that's reason that's reason why I pointed it out. Yeah, so you get above plus 70 You know made michael 71, but you're in the ballpark of where the high is So right now it's all the way back down to uh 50 51 or so So I thought that was kind of cool. No, that is why I really don't panic with the market's rallying If this ratio is anywhere near 70 No, I'm you're closer to a high than a low. Okay, so Uh, if it gets down to below minus 30, which I don't know for all or not It's usually a bottom and that's those red trend lines. So Uh, anyhow, and so hey listen, I mean the bottom line is that if we look at this s&p We just might be on the way to that gap Down the spine Yeah, we might take a shot at it. You gotta love it Tim, it's always a pleasure, man. You have a great weekend a safe weekend. We look forward to speaking you on tuesday All right, sounds good. Take care, man Folks have a great night a safe night come back and visit tommy tomorrow morning kicks us off 9 a.m. Great show folks We'll get them folks