 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now, toll free at 1-877-927-6648. Hi everyone, Basil Chapman. On this Monday, the 24th of January, just about to wrap up the month. Down's down 671 at $30,594. One of the reasons why I've been discussing this for so long, saying that the QQQ and DX100, that kind of sell-off invariably rubs off on anything that's even good. And the Dow, which was leading for a while, hit an all-time high on the 5th of January. At $36,952, it's trading some 3,000 points low, at $33,616 right now. Down 656. Most importantly, if you look at the weekly chart, there's absolutely a peak E sell mode in the weekly chart. Not an alternate count, E slash C. Let me get rid of that right now. It doesn't matter even if we turn it around today, with the VIX index the way it is. That's still a peak E. You can take it out, but that's not the point. The point is that we are looking at the kind of sell-off that has... Remember, I always talk about this. I spent a little time on Friday. Let me just do this here. This is the Chapman wave. Let me just go to it right now. INDU. This is where we talk about the dark news cloud cover. The company times you've had that rectangle formation, sometimes short, sometimes long, probably always get the same patterns. This is the first time since the low cloud was made back in June, around about the week of the 18th of June, 33,271. This is the first time this slightly rising Chapman wave inside track, mini-channel, up-channel line has been pierced. Just took it right out. I showed this to subscribers in my overview on Saturday for my weekly overview session, showing all the different patterns. So the dark news cloud cover has, as mentioned in the den, Sharky says, Bazzle markets, question mark, instead of a sold for a bit if they want. What is the news out there that will give support for the markets? We've got the Fed. We've got the Russian issue. We've got China. He says China nonsense. What the heck? So all I can say is, markets become oversold, and they get representative in that market hysteria condition by the VIX index. VIX index is made up. Oh, I went to the wrong chart right here. VIX index is made up of the futures and the legal stock exchange. It's somewhat complicated, but it really is a fear gauge. What it's saying right now, we're above the high that was made December the 3rd of 3552. Remember, that was the thing. It was on Monday, December the 3rd. I don't have the calendar. Yeah. And what we're looking at here is that that high, which had corresponded to December the 1st in the market, we've taken that out. And the judges had another big slide to the downside, 463. And the S&P is down 115. And now I have this as a leg C in a check wave. It is rare, absolutely rare, to go to these. I use this only as I put the notation because I always put notation in for any moving market. But most importantly, you could get a failure here. It's C in the daily. E in the weekly chart, leg C in the monthly. Look at that big C failure from 85-37 at the March 23rd low of last 2020, where we actually went long on the diamonds via the options. And then we switched over to keep the options for a while longer and went to the diamonds, DIA. And we still have that core position where we've had some other trading positions in between, long, short, long, short. Right now, we're still short. We took just a tad off this morning with the diamonds. The DIA went above the December the 5th. Wait, what did I say? Oh, diamonds. And not DIA, the diamonds, DOG. That's what we have. DOG is the one-to-one, short the diamonds. So we're in position 31.66 on the length of January. And then when I said, when I said we were here, so we were 33.50, I said, if we go to the high of December the 1st, which was at 33.96, take a little bit off. And we've done that. And here we have 34.32. So that's the reason why I said the Dow had held better, but we're still going short to that particular point. Now what we're looking at is the S&P. Look at this. S&P went below the 200-period moving average that it was sitting on. Now, how important is the 200-period moving average? Well, now how important it is? Look at this. Let me just show you. Give it the squeeze. Squeeze once, squeeze twice, squeeze three times, squeeze four times, squeeze five times, squeeze six times. There are six times, and it takes you down to the 200-period moving average with a low of 32. Now let me just give you exactly what I'm guessing right there. On the 28th of September, 33.32.91, and I think it even went lower. Yes, it did. It went to 30. I don't want to mess this up. Be careful. 32.98. I think I'm moving it around. There it is. 32.09.45. That was correct. Right there. 32.09.45, late September of 2020. And now look what we've done. We've run up to the 35.49 area in October. November you come down to a low of 32.93, a higher low, and then it starts a beautiful run. And that's the last time that we were even close to the Georgia period moving average. We did get fairly close back in October, the first and fourth in that area in the 42.88 area. What was the low? I think this is the low. Am I correct? 42.78. And then it ran very sharp. Of course, to more time high. And now we're looking at, let me open this up again. How important is the 200 period moving average? First time we've been below it since, I wonder if I can keep squeezing. Yep. Oh boy, since we fractionally went under it back in June of 2020, but basically, yeah, there were three tests in the whole June area below the 200 period moving average after going above at 32.33. And now this is really important because it's saying that that moving average, 200 period moving average at 40.400, and we're at 42.88, I could become a resistance level and a support. We could start a bounce around that. We could in fact have a pretty decent reversal in the next couple of days, especially with the Fed coming up with their acknowledgement of what's going on in the market and probably saying something about the effect, just leaning to the effect of there could be an economic slow down. We don't want to aggravate an economic slow down. We also want to look at this as what should the Fed do? What is the Fed state that it was its aim and how are we going to ameliorate the negativity with what we think it could be the positivity? So I think there'll be enough in the Fed statement to say, hmm, well maybe, maybe enough to have a decent bounce but then come back and do a retest. So whatever we're looking at, the S&P's down 107, at 42.80 and the QQQ, that's down 2.43, the QQQ's down 2... Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. 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I said on Friday that if the market actually closed down quite sharply and it was rallying and it actually ran up huge, it ran up, what was it, I can't remember now, it ran up very sharply and then we closed down very sharply and what I'd say is if we closed down very sharply between Sunday night if the Sunday night futures were down sharply, we could see a Monday turnaround later in the day but actually what happened is you served some of that potential strength by seeing the futures and I had a chapter of Tringage reading which said there should be at least a 9 to 11 point rally in the futures within two days but we got that Sunday night it ran up really sharply and the futures were up over 30 and the S&P over 30 points that was up over 200 points and then what happened is I wake up this morning and I see it about 6 o'clock we've reversed we've down we're down almost 30 points in the S&P then there was a rally and now there's another sharp sell-off so we're getting to the point where it is becoming extremely emotionally oversold and every time that you see a rally like this and then it fails and it has this one of the things I look for when we're getting close to some climactic reversal is that the percentage loss in key indices, key stocks in the last couple of days now remember I always talk about the left side, right side price the arch formation you can go up in a certain number of bars and then you can come down in a certain number of bars and funnily enough you can get right to that left side low but going to that low you'll see an acceleration in the size of the red candles when it takes it out the left side low then you start to see big percentages so the percentage loss and say let me just go to this I'm coming back in a moment to the QQQ it's something like look shop shop shopify look at today's loss 7% today huge percent on Friday Thursday and it's already down from the 1762.92 all-time high from late November and it's trading at 817 over 50% decline all I can say is that that acceleration into the low says that let's just say on Friday you thought oh even if it goes down a little more I'm close to the low let's face it from 1,000 and say 60 down to 820 look what has to happen now now you have to have a reversal that has so much power to the upside in the V-shaped pattern that within days you want to get back just to get back to even a 1060 you've got almost 200 points to rally on an $800 stock that 25-28% you're asking a lot so all I can say this is where you've got to be the most careful and probably this is where options come in the best of all in the den someone said I'm looking at adding the 345 call on the QQQ so the QQQ at 341 right now it's down 10 points to get back your money it's better to have a very small position with a chance of having a really significant pullback but what if it goes down to 335 335 before it has that big turnaround that's the reason why options summed up best you've got an exact amount of dollars that you've put to work and you can know you're throwing that away or there could be a huge upside move it's a lottery ticket and that's the better way to play it rather than say buying the QQQ right now at 341 saying at the end of the day we could be up to 348 what if you down it 338 328 this is a dangerous phase this is the phase where we're close to getting some kind of reversal but the points lost or made it's really critical that you use a very high level of discipline okay now let's go to the IWM IWM the Russell 2000 down sharply down 2.20% down 432 at 192 62 and in a leg G slash B to the bottom and we're looking at it in the rectangle formation look how far away we've gone from the middle point of 222 we're now at 192 30 points lower it's about 16-17% these are big numbers I'm just saying yes I think every one of us is looking at this and saying this is a really good day to have some kind of a sharp reversal to the upside maybe one day early because I really think the Fed I don't think they want to add any fuel to the fire right now I was talking about fuel look at crude oil crude oil is now down 2.31 at 82.84 and I call that at 87.10 I said I'm calling it at least for now leg F then a peak F and even though we had MRO which is marathon oil I said everything about this peak C looks like it's a D we're raising our stops and we've now got out of our position one really good gain one okay I don't want to play games and you know when I was looking at CVX CVX the other day I said this is also a peak C I don't have room yet to go to an alternate count maybe I do 100 and 19.26 100 and 19.34 nope that has to be an A and that has to be a C you could get to a D profit is a profit you just got to be really careful now because crude oil is pulling back this is often what I coincidence in the den I was just asked about that I was asked about NG in fact NG was one of those that I see today there's a chance that it starts to move higher this is natural gas natural gas trading at 3.973 down 0.02 but I looked at the chart closely over the weekend and I said you know this chart moved down it should never have happened I don't know why there was a sharp move up in the first place a big candle of the 12th of January but wait a minute if you're looking at gold didn't it also have this huge move up was that the 12th of January that was why is it not showing oh busy busy there on the 19th you had the same thing in gold on the 19th and that's the reason why I'm saying that these single legs to the upside you've got to have follow-through so let me just go back to the question now before I do that I just want to go I'm looking at this and saying I go to feeding today we're going to see the attempts at reversals so yes we've got a real nice reversal the low of the day so far is at 4263 and we're trading a 4296 points higher and I think there's going to be an attempt here maybe it's still early in the day normally this type of thing this reversal is best when it's after a horrible Friday and anticipation Monday that they could be around you but oh my god it failed even worse and then people just throw in the towel and it's kind of later in the day that you actually get the successful turnaround otherwise abbreviated and it usurps some of that upside energy it uses some of the negativity as well so I prefer to have just a complete set up maybe we get a yet another a sharp slide doesn't even have to be to the low of the day but from the rally that we're having there's a deep slide just as the daynars have even the people that thought this is a good time to start going along and then we get a turnaround into Tuesday and Wednesday when the Fed has its fed we'll see what happens but we're getting close in emotion and in the volatility index I'll be back to the UNG in a moment are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex predator in the 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down I'm just gonna say I'm not sure that this is working right now this is the season that you should start to see it moving I didn't like that sudden spike over the 200 period moving average and then just about as sharp into the downside all I'm saying is yes keep natural gas if you're looking at the UNG trade that's United States natural gas fund trading at 30.40 probably you give up some but I'd rather see push into the 13 68 13 73 level just to know that it's not going to want to retest 1300 right at this moment and that's the better way to look at it but something's not right with this chart so let's just get that out their way kudos I am calling this a peak F it could have recycled with the Chapman Winston restart doesn't matter I said I just love these left side right side double top formations doesn't matter how long or how short the double tops just incredible 85 65 was lying October of 2018 promise to $7.61 April of 2020 runs all the way to this 80 87 10 level three days ago now it's just it's bumping into resistance that's number one I mean I just I wrote this down over yesterday and today just look at this double tops you've got alcoa down 74 cents right now it goes to 64 37 on the eighth I think what was that right there on the I mean this is something going on yet a lot of people are doing buying and selling in the market on the 12th of January pulls back to the 58 level and then it has a test of the time at 64 25 six sessions later and then it starts away a proof to downside look builder you remember we were talking about this stock unbelievable stock called builders first source ink what does it do it goes to an all-time high of 86.48 and two days later retest is where 86.45 three cents away I mean how many times look at BLD also in the building area BLD BLD is top build corporation is still distribution installation building materials goes to a high back in the 22nd of November of 20 to 84.01 plumbers down to 250 249 actually and runs back to 84.07 for another PD high at 28th of December leg E in the weekly chart and then as a tumble illustrating right now at 227 50 I mean 50 points lower so what I'm saying is that this is the patterns have been repeated over and over we've seen that I said keep the VIX index separate from the VIX separate from bondy bonds separate from Goldie that's gold and separate from Dolly the dollar they all are doing their own little thing it's the market that we've got to look at and we've got to look at these double tops in different areas now what we're looking at is within the slide to the bottom we're absolutely certainly and I haven't discussed the XLK I want you to do the XLK XLK broke under the 200 moving average of 154 this is the S&P select spider fund went to a low this morning of 149.54 trying to rebound a little bit but look at that doji beautiful doji candle in the weekly chart peak G at 177.04 peak D in the daily I was asked about back in January I was asked about do I still talk about the Groucho Marks V shape patterns yes I absolutely do but I wanted to give get a little more respect for my techniques without giving them nicknames so I called them the double top for motion just for a little bit just you know it's kind of nice to have your patterns that you spend your lifetime your adult life studying and writing about so in this particular instance those Groucho Marks eyebrows the V shape pattern they still in existence a couple of things now I also yeah let me just show you this CT I was asked about cotton over the weekend I thought they were asking about cotton to trade cotton where would they go these are overseas person wanting to use a broker here or maybe they're American I'm not sure but I said I'm just I'm getting a topping aspect of the CTD and cotton it's trading at 120.77 down up two cents but it made a high a double top high of one was the continuous contract 124.78 and then 124.78 the following day ups yes double top at exactly the same price so it says it could pull back it could retest that high because the techniques are still not breaking down a little topic I thought the person wanted to go long I'd be a little careful about going long cotton right now but they only want to know which broker well I think trade station does ever I've never done trade cotton futures anything so I do the futures but not cotton futures so I think most brokerage companies would be able to handle that very well whatever they were doing so that's there now I wanted to do this look dust wheat this is wheat is continuous wheat contract it's down at the lower end it's come off the 200-period moving average that's how important these 200-period moving averages are it's come off it it's had a nice bit of a rally but it's still at the lower end on the other side of it soybeans at the upper end and the daily and the weekly chart is still in the middle of a big rectangle formation so in 1402 you really want to see it trading at 1445 or higher this is a continuous contract so it's getting a little top here and corn corn is trading very nicely it's up one at 117 it's broken out of the smaller rectangle it's going for the bigger rectangle which has a high way back in July of last year of 629 630 the continuous contract in Australia right now 617 I think it will make a leg C in the monthly chart above that level so we've got a lot of conflicting things now let's go back I almost hit the buy button but I said during the show just be a little careful we're right there the 642 82 level when we flipped over to green now it's in 6308 actually if there's a slow grind to the upside then it accelerates into the close I would consider once again that's one of those aftershocks we haven't made the low yet but we are getting really close to a very tradeable low and I suspect that that's important so a bunch of questions came in and Nvidia I think Paul says I think when it's over this stock will be a satire in business schools let's just look at first the SMH oh didn't mean to put it there the SMH is right here the SMH is the SMH is the semiconductor index it's gone all the way down from the 318 double top how many times have we seen this is a groucho mark in the weekly and then it plummets down to today's level of 261 I would say that if a sector has that kind of a decline you've got to think that there's some structural damage at least in the short term maybe not long term but in the short term so we'll look at Nvidia question about Nvidia Nvidia went under the 200 period moving averages down like 221 is down 12 346 was the all time I I would say 346 to 212 being cut by a third not fun and this is one of the great companies in the semiconductor business with that weekly chart suggesting this is a lot more serious I want you to look at Nvidia I want you to look at MRVL Marvel is trading down 2.5 Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets 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so this is really important because look Rob Lacks Rob Lacks is it was I mean when you hear people talk about this this together with unity unity trading down seven points at 99.86 to 10 round number high back in the 18th of November gaming creating so all of these in the gaming area and you would think I mean especially in this particular environment right now that the gaming would be just really doing fantastically but no they're not and that's why this is a very broad mark itself you've got to respect that so it's now under the 200 period moving air which is just to go to Rob Lacks for one moment 87 is the 200 period moving air which is at 63 there's 24 points below is it about to form a v-shape pattern if it's a v-shape it has to be an incredible v-shape pattern at 1.9 percent in the stochastic now it's going to 2 now it's 1.98 changing as we talk that is so oversold it should have at least a balance to 5 percent and maybe even 10 percent and then it should do some retesting so that I'm just saying to you don't get too carried away thinking these things can't go down look from $80 on Thursday to 62.53 low today I would say 20 20 points in just three days please be careful now as far as the upside is concerned let's go you remember semiconductors I always use this as a benchmark so we're looking at MRVL Marvell great company $90.85 high on the 8th of December trading now on the left side 69.30 was the left side low back I think about the 1st of December today's low 69.08 talk about double tops this is what you want to look for the bottom but is this the bottom hard to say but it has all the ingredients to say it's held up a little better than some that have just broken sharply below the 200-bit moving averages if it has a balance it has to balance sharply from 69 to Friday's high in the 76th area I mean that's 7 points it's 11% bounce it can do that but I'm just saying even if they bounce even if you're using options think of it more as a bounce rather this is the big turn in the semis because it's just going to go alphabetically let's just go to Apple because Apple uses semis but it's kind of a benchmark as well for how they use and where they use so 182.94 just a few weeks ago now at 158 held up much better than many of the others but it's in a sell mode in the daily sell signal in the weekly with a really strong chance of there was a peak G high and now we're going to AMD AMD is trading below the 200-period moving average at 112 from 164 all-time high this is almost got a 1 to look at A to B equal C to D in extension probably even looks a little like a Godly pattern so just be careful that's all I'm saying down 6 at 112.75 you want to see this by Wednesday often into Thursday it has to have tackled at least attempted to tackle the higher Friday which is 125.02 if it does that that is nice because that's a v-shaped pattern that you're looking for I had a whole bunch that I want to look at oh in the den, no in the tiger AVGO, yep AVGO Vagio trading and this is the old Broadcom it made a peak F all-time high not all-time that was much recent high right there 6.78 ish and it was an F and now it's trading at 5.27 right on the 200-period moving average having dropped this far says yep it could bounce again but watch out that 5.25 area is like a magnet now especially with the weekly in a sell mode so just be real careful this is Broadcom I don't want to go through them all you get the message here about the IYT surely the strength in United Parcel and Federal Express and the rails the CSXs what was the question I just I'm remembering by memory here should help the the transports well look at this the 287.40 was the all-time high back in May of this of last year and what does it do drops all the way to the 240s and then screams back up to where 281.45 and then as if it's not good enough that it's almost double top there it goes to 280.87 on the about the 21st of December I mean that's amazing triple top at almost the exact same price and now it's down to just you've got to be careful here anticipating is one thing putting your hard-earned money to work do it selectively be very careful Q-com might be a good one to buy at some point yes I think that's a great company but let's just be patient and see what everything I don't want to get too carry away looking at buys looking at buys because in fact just it's we've only just turned down sharply for the cells there are a lot of stocks that only now are turning down so maybe we need more room and more time that volatility index it's just saying to me how much time do you want are you kidding we hit 37.95 today we're now trading at 34.72 down two points from that high well that's a start we made a new recovery high is this going to be an alternative yeah this could be an alternative count E slash C this is chapter 1 which the only time I ever say I kind of ignore it is when we're doing the notation in the what happened there the VIX is the only one that has its own always because it's an emotional response it's not just a purely technical response emotional responses can surge and diminish very quickly so what I am looking at here let's see I want to go back here to the questions in did that oh yeah there are a couple of stocks for subscribers I mentioned this morning that they're holding very well it turns out that all three of the ones that I mentioned are in fact holding in fact one is up on a day like this so that's what I'm looking for I'm not looking for the sexiest stocks that just plummeted and they were on everybody's buy list we'll get to those you know that I've got a list of those and those I'm including the docuSigns you know what I said about the last few days of a major sell-off the percentage decline is huge look at this docuSigns just a couple of days ago is a 126 yeah it is with a low today of 109 I would say that's big percentages and we don't know if we've made a look it is trusty but you've got to be careful so I might avoid some of these and go for ones that might not have the biggest kickoff as we turn around so that kickoff folks why don't you kickoff Tommy O'Brien at 9 o'clock every morning please get it, thank you if you haven't had a chance to listen listen to fairies or put them to vegetables together with fundies I'll be back in a moment down to 585 hope you like it sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell 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mortgage program pays 7% per year paid monthly for more information you can call 877-518-9190 that's 877-518-9190 that's 877-518-9190 this segment is brought to you by thinkorswim for more information just click the thinkorswim banner on the front page of tfnn.com so let me just show you something this is what I'm talking about look, Microsoft four sessions ago was trading in the 313 area great company getting close to the 200 period moving average and then all of a sudden in three days it goes from 313 to today's low so far of 284 that's a 10% just like that that's what I'm talking about so you've got to be careful I do believe we're really close to some kind of a reversal the big difference is going to be a major reversal that really screams into the options expiration on Friday regardless of what the Fed does or is it going to be a process and if it's a process you've got to be careful because every time you think just too many people thinking here that we've got the low in place and the market tends to fool some of you know very well that sometimes in these v-shaped patterns as everybody's getting out they're getting out here and sometimes the chart and as they're getting out within three days the price is way above way above the exit level and then they feel so stupid and they don't get back in they don't know what to do and that's what markets tend to do they tend to do so viciously that when the core of the the plethora of participants are moving on the Titanic one way thinking it's all over the life post suddenly on the other side just suddenly kick in and everybody's okay on that side so just be real careful so I'll show you the IYT now let me glance because I don't want to forget anything that I'd written all about a whole bunch of things I'd written about I want you to do so this is what I'm looking at within the jets within the US airline industry let's keep an eye on that because if you're going to get the public coming back and things turning back to normal this is probably an area you want to be looking at you want to be looking at this you want to be looking at say at Disney which is oh my god look at Disney 150's on Thursday and now at 131 this is what I mean that last