 The NASCAR Cup Series Championship coming up this Sunday at Phoenix, which is kind of sad because it does mean it's the end of this year, our final fantasy NASCAR podcast of the season. But a lot of things to be jazzed about this week are pretty tight. I would say championship four where I could realistically see any of the four guys winning the championship on Sunday. Practice is back this week. We've got qualifying as well. So a lot of fun things, but also a lot to break down from a DFS perspective. What we'll do today is break down the schedule for this week. We'll talk about the championship for what that means from a DFS perspective and my favorite drivers in each salary tier prior to practice and qualifying. Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com here to break down this NASCAR Cup Series Championship in Phoenix. Lock is at 3 p.m. Eastern on Sunday. So that is when your lineups must be it. Usually you can fill them out as we go because there's no practice in qualifying. That is not the case for this week. We'll break down what that means in the track breakdown. But first a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast. We're available wherever you get your podcasts. We have our week nine NFL DFS preview podcast already posted with myself and Brandon Godula breaking down this weekend's main slate impact Jordan Love talking about some running backs we like game stacks and much more. We also have a UFC podcast of the Austin Swain for I believe it's a pay-per-view maybe this weekend. Either way that is posted as well upon the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Tom Vecchio has NBA and NHL podcasts every weekday. Of course PGA is every Tuesday twice weekly NFL podcast. So despite this being the final NASCAR podcast of the year still plenty of incentive to make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. And if you've enjoyed these NASCAR podcasts this year, make sure you leave us a rating and review because that does help us out a bunch. Thank you to those of you who have done so already. Speaking of racing, another kind of racing coming up this weekend. The Breeders Cup is set to begin and FanDuel is celebrating by giving you a chance to get in on the action with some enhanced odds. Starting now, it's already started. New players are signed up on FanDuel Racing. We'll get 20 to 1 odds on any horse to win a Del Mar race on Friday or Saturday. That is any horse to win, even the favorites. The Breeders Cup will be here before you know it. So bet horse racing right from your phone with the super easy to use FanDuel Racing app. $5 max bet. Download the FanDuel Racing app or visit racing.fanduel.com for details. Eligibility restrictions apply. Let's take a look at the track breakdown for this week, which does include a look at the schedule. It's the final race of this year. It's the final race of this car before they go to the next gen car next year. So it's a unique format because we do a practice this weekend practice. There will be one session that'll be at on Friday at 4pm. I'm going to care a bit more about practice than usual. Practice always matters, but I think this weekend matters a bit more because I have a firm lean on what I think of the championship for drivers. But I want to get confirmation of that. And I think that that is something to keep an eye on here because when we saw the Cup series here back in March, it was pretty early in the year and a lot of things have changed since then. We've seen the Hendrick cars and a lot of time to focus on Phoenix. That's a positive as well. So I have a lean where I want to go, but I want to see how things shake out in practice and see what we can learn from that session. That's one difference. Other difference that there is qualifying, that's Saturday at 7pm. So you'll be able to fill out lineups from 7pm Saturday through 3pm Sunday. So two hours post NFL lock to fill out your NASCAR lineups on Sunday. The other implication here is that the championship for may not necessarily be starting at the front of the pack. All throughout the playoffs, we've known the key contenders would be at the front of the pack. That is not true this time. It might be, but it's not guaranteed. And the championship for are the focus here because there have been seven previous championship races. A driver in the championship four has won all seven. Another driver in the championship four has finished second in all but one of those races. Now six of those were in homestead. Last year was the first race in Phoenix, which kind of thought might lead to more variance heading into last year. It did not. The championship four drivers finished inside the top four spots. Now it's not a stone cold lock, but I do think our baseline assumption for this week and our baseline bill for DFS should be focusing on those playoff drivers and getting two in each lineup. And I think we can do that no matter where they start because there are 312 laps scheduled for this race. That is more than enough to target two guys at the front of the pack. Last year's perfect lineup had the drivers to start at one, two in the perfect lineup. They were championship drivers. That's more than enough to target guys at the front. You could squeeze in a third lap leader. That's unlikely to be a playoff driver just because their salaries are super high. So I seriously doubt you can jam in three, but I think getting to two is the optimal here. And I would expect the championship contenders streak to continue because those four drivers are all in the top seven in my models projected average running position. They are for the five most likely winners based on my sins, which don't really account for the fact that there's a championship four because I wanted to see what the baseline was here. And also if you look at the drivers who have led the most laps on tracks 1.1 miles or shorter, it is Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott who happened to be the four championship drivers. Shocker that good drivers are good. And I think that we should expect things to skew that way once again. So that's what I want with the studs. I want to get two championship drivers or at least two who can lead laps and try to get in a third with top five upside if you can. It might be tough given the salaries and the championship guys, but I think it's worth at least giving it a shot. For the value plays, really depends on how qualifying shakes out because if you can find place differential guys, someone who slips in qualifying, that's awesome. You can lean on it because you can make passes at Phoenix if your car is fast enough. And we could get guys who just slip up in qualifying and don't qualify well. We also might not. Looking back to last year, in the championship race where there was no qualifying, there were three drivers who started outside the top 20 who made the perfect lineup. When there was qualifying at Phoenix in 2012, every driver inside the perfect line had started inside the top 18. So we can go either way. It just depends on if we get guys who are fast enough to make up ground starting further back. If we get them sick, I will happily go there and feel good about them, but I'm not going to force it if I don't find fast drivers starting further back. I'll get preference to those starting further back at the speed is equal, but I'm not going to force it. I'm going to sell out to get good finishes instead. The way to determine speed is a combo of practice and other data because practice is great. I'm happy it's here, but we also have a long sample of drivers this year on short, flat tracks. It is a six-ray sample. It's four if you want to lop off Martins, though, which is very fair. We totally understand that, but we kind of know who will be fast here. If things deviate heavily in practice, that's where you dig in more. See if drivers have progressed as the season has gone along or maybe they've had fluky results due to penalties due to wrecks, stuff like that, and see if there's a fluke in there. If it's not fluky, I'd lean on the data and view practice as being the outlier. So practice does matter. Just don't ignore everything else in favor of leaning on practice. Current form still matters on these short, flat tracks. Track history still matters, but we should factor them all in together, is what I'm saying. So to recap here, for this weekend, practice is at 4 p.m. Friday, qualifying 7 p.m. Saturday, and we want two lap leaders per lineup. Likely going to be playoff drivers. There's certainly a way to wiggle if you want to, but to me it's mostly about those four playoff guys. If you don't go playoff drivers, you might be able to fit in a third lap leader, but I will be skewing heavily toward the playoff drivers. For the value plays, you can accept place differential if you get it, but we might not, and I would not force it if it's not there. We should value practice data. We should get five lap averages from NASCAR.com. I will put those in the data sheet up on numberfire.com after practice is done, but we should still put weight in history on short flat tracks and at Phoenix as well, in addition to practice data. So the list there are the short flat tracks is two at Martinsville, two at Richmond, one at New Hampshire, and one at Phoenix earlier on this year. So that's how we're playing things. Let's go tier by tier now and talk about the drivers in the salary pool for this week. Again, prior to practice and qualifying, recording here on Friday morning, no practice yet. So this will change. I'll try to discuss how practice could alter things throughout the tier by tier breakdown, but for now, let's go through and talk about my favorite drivers in each tier based on the salaries over at fandual.com. Starting off with the elite tier that is Kyle Larson at 14-5 to Martin Truex Jr. at 13,000. This is the championship four, and I view this differently than the betting odds and the salaries for this tier. I actually think Denny Hamlin is my favorite driver this week, even with his ranking third in both salary and winners. Hamlin leads the sport in laps led on shorter tracks this year. He's at 885. Chase Elliott is second at 529. That's a pretty big gap. Hamlin hasn't won any of those races, but he has constantly been in contention on this track type. Hamlin has the best aggregate average running position on short flat tracks this year. He was fast in Phoenix during the spring as well. So I've got him first. I'm going to put Truex second. Hamlin has led the laps on these tracks, but Truex has the wins. He won at Phoenix, the same track back in the spring. He won at Martinsville in the spring. Then he won Richmond during the playoffs. If we look at, again, aggregate average running position on these tracks, Truex is second behind Hamlin. So weirdly, I think the two lower salary guys are my favorites up here. And that does help because it increases the odds I can get back into that mid-range. But I just think that Joe Gibbs Racing has had this track type nailed this year and I'm willing to trust that data and lean on that. I am very okay with Larson and Elliott. I will be in on them for sure. Larson passed like 50 bajillion cars here back in the spring. And it was 146 if I were to be more exact, but it was a lot of cars, either way. He came to the pack three separate times. His floor is really high even if he has issues. He can work his way back and that's awesome. I just like the speed in the Gibbs cars a bit more. So I am very, very open to changing my tune. If Larson is fast in practice on Friday, so same thing with Elliott. Before practice, I'm going to rank this tier Hamlin 1, Truex 2, Larson 3, Elliott number 4. The second tier, so going to the non-playoff drivers, is William Byron at $12,000 through Brad Keselowski at $9,800. There are guys in this range who have been really, really good on the short flat tracks this year. And the ones I pinpoint are the three Penske Drivers and Christopher Bell. All of the Penske Drivers, I think I might rank Ryan Blaney the highest. He's $1,500, so a $500 discount from Legano. But he's been, he's shown more upside than Keselowski on these shorter tracks. So that kind of helps make up for the sour gap between those two guys. Blaney has led 301 laps on the shorter tracks this year, whereas Keselowski is at 107. I'm not writing off Keselowski, to be clear. He was very good in Martinsville last week. He was awesome in New Hampshire. That matters a lot for this week. And he was in contention in Phoenix back in the spring too, but I would give the sledge to Blaney here over Keselowski. All three very much in play. It's harder for me to get to Legano's salary than with those two guys. As for Bell, he's $10,000 and he's very well worth that. He ranks seventh in aggregate average running position on the short flat tracks. He's right behind the three Penske guys. Didn't finish well in Martinsville, but he was up front all day in the three previous races at short flat tracks. Bell finished third, second, and fourth. He's a beast here. And he has been that dating back to his time in the Xfinity series. So I am very open to putting Bell near the top of this tier, depending on how practice and qualifying break. For now, I will rank this Blaney one, Keselowski two, Bell three, Legano four. Legano's salary is the key detractor for me. If we see big value open up and you can get to him with two championship drivers, I will be in. I'm just not overly optimistic that happens. So it's a salary thing for Legano. He has the best data based on my numbers at this track type. So I would love to get there. I'm just not sure realistically I can do so. The mid-range is Kevin Harvick at $9,500. Your Matthew Benedetto at $7,700. Of the non-championship drivers, I do think Kevin Harvick has potentially the biggest motivation to win. He hasn't done so yet this year. He's won a race every year, dating back to 2009. That could help motivation. I just don't like his upside as much as the guys like Bell and the Penske drivers who are in the same range as Harvick. So I'd rank Harvick below them all, but he's still very much a legit threat for a top five run. So it's still okay with Harvick, depending on how stuff goes this weekend. But I do think his upside's lower than that of Bell, Keselowski, Blaney and Legano. I need the salary savings, sure, but I do think that they have higher upside than him. One guy I like in terms of savings and salary is Harvick's teammate, Eric Amarola. Obviously, you know, he won New Hampshire. That's great for this track. But he was also 11th in Phoenix, despite being mired and trafficked that entire race. He was better than the numbers say there. I think that it was a really encouraging race for Amarola. He also had good runs last week in Martinsville, the first Richmond race as well. $8,500? That's really nice. I can get behind that all day. So Amarola to me, it's been this range, probably going to be a core play. I think that he grades out well enough to be in that consideration. So it's a complicated tier and it will depend on practice and qualifying, but just based on salaries now, I would go Amarola 1, Harvick 2, Alex Bowman 3, Kurt Busch 4, Tyler Redick 5, and Matt DiBenedetto. Number 6, weird vibes around DiBenedetto this week. So I don't know if you're, maybe it's just a weird anecdotal thing to avoid him, but like he's been a, he's been kind of a weirdo. So we're going to lower our thoughts on Matt DiBenedetto this week. The value tier is Ross Chastain at $7,500, Ricky Senhouse Jr. at $6,200. I think Chastain is pretty under-salaryed here. He had top 10 average running positions and top 10 finishes in Nashville, New Hampshire, and Richmond, all of which are flatter tracks. He had issues last week in Martinsville, but that's a very different track than this one. He ranked 17th in my models projected average running position, but I'd probably take the under on that. I think that it might be underestimating him just a bit. I'd prefer Chastain if he doesn't qualify super well, but like if he's starting like 15th, yeah, I'm in on that for sure. Two others who grade out well by my numbers are Austin Dillon and Ricky Senhouse Jr. Dillon is $7,300. Senhouse is 62. Dillon has been solid on the short flat tracks. He has been top 15 in four out of six races, and he was 17th in the two others. He had a 10th place average running position in the first Richmond race. So Dillon can get the job done. Stenhouse's finishes on this track type are 12th, 15th, 17th, 15th, 23rd, and 19th. So it's not great, but that's also pretty good for $6,200. And he's not as volatile on a less chaotic track, which is what this is. Senhouse, one spot behind Chastain in terms of projected average running position, I'm likely to be high on him again as long as he doesn't qualify too well. And I think the drop off after Stenhouse is pretty big. So we're going to go back and see what happens. Please don't kill me, Ricky. Let's just stay on the track this time. I'm going to rank this here. Chastain, one. Stenhouse, two. Dillon, three. Eric Jones, four. Bubba Wallace, number five. The punting tier is kind of gross. It's cool Custer at $6,000 on down. Custer has at least shown some life on the short flat tracks, good in Phoenix last year. He was 14th in New Hampshire this year, which isn't too bad, but that's also his best finish in this split. Chase Brisco tends to be better on the higher bank tracks, but he was 16th in Richmond. So I think this tier is pretty grim on this track type. That's part of why I like Stenhouse, because again, I think the fall off after him is pretty big. I would rank Custer and Brisco highest, but I'd need them starting decently far back to be tempted. And I would like to see some speed in practice. So if someone in here pops up in practice, cool. I can be receptive to that, but overall, it's not great down below us at $6,000 and lower. Okay, moment of truth. Let's do our win picks for the Cup Series Championship in Phoenix. I am going to trust the numbers here, trust my simulations today. And my simulations today, Denny Hamlin is the most likely winner in this race. So I will trust that. Go with Hamlin, 18.3% win odds, my simulations. I'll take that. I think that that is a very fair number for him. So Denny Hamlin, my win pick, above 10,000. Among the guys below $10,000, my simulations have Kevin Harvick being the most likely winner above Brad Keselowski. I mentioned that Keselowski's upside was higher. Might need to revise that statement because Harvick has been pretty good on this track type. So we'll go with Kevin Harvick as the guys below $10,000, most likely to win for this week. So official win picks for the Cup Series Championship race, Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick among the guys below 10,000. That is all that we have here for today and this year on the NASCAR heat check. We appreciate all of you for tuning in throughout this season back once again for I guess the clash in the Coliseum coming up in February. That should be a lot of fun. So we'll talk about that later on. But once again, as mentioned, a lot of good stuff here on the Number of Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Make sure you are subscribed to get PGA, NFL, NHL, NBA, UFC podcasts each and every day in your podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts. And again, if you like what you heard this year, leave a rating and review. If you've got questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fandwill Podcast Network at Fandwill Podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in throughout this entire year. It's been fun talking to you throughout this year and talking to all of you on Twitter. I appreciate the interaction. Appreciate the listening. Have a good race in Phoenix on Sunday. Enjoy the off season. We'll talk to you once again for the clash coming up in the spring. This has been the Heat Check Fantasy Podcast powered by Number Fire.