 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The TFNN Bull Bear Training Hour. Every trading day, live at 10 a.m. Eastern. Call now, toll free at 877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. The TFNN Bull Bear Training Hour. Now, Tommy and Tommy O'Brien. Welcome folks, appreciate you're growling a problem with us out here. We have the Dow industry shows up 162. Nasdaq up 49, S&P up 16.5. Gold down 13.5 dollars at 14.99 ounce. We had Silver off 30 cents, 17 dollars, 50 cents an ounce. Light Sweet Crude up 70 cents, 53 dollars, 30 cents. A barrel, notes and bonds. 10 year down 11 ticks, 130, 30 year off 31. Almost one full point, which is 32 ticks. Add 162.19 and King Dollar. King Dollar down 263 ticks, trading 98, 885. The euro is at 110. The yen is at 107.83 and the pound is at 122 to 1 US dollar. So, Musko, I heard, I heard when you did that update, that update. They sent the... The Twittersphere, it's got some action going. It's got action. Let's go over to the S&P minis. First, let's take a look at that contract and you're going to see... You get... Trump's going to meet with the vice premier tomorrow. And bottom line, we'll see what shakes out there. But what it absolutely did do to the marketplace is that it just took the S&P from 29... Well, if we take the low of 7 o'clock this morning, 7.40, 29.09 to 29.34. And as you said from last night, it's pretty intense. It is. And that tweet is only coming out, though, at 9.50. So I think it was already at 9.17, maybe? 29.17, S&P? Yeah, it was flat. The market was flat at 9.30. And then, ba-boom. Now, that's saying ba-boom, folks. Okay, this is the market that keeps giving and giving and giving. And my take is we're still on an ABC structure on the way down. So, we'll see how many traders fade this pop. There's plenty of traders that are just waiting for these pops. And, you know, we'll see how that baby shakes out. Gold. We go over to the gold contract. We take a look at that gold contract. Gold went the opposite in a flash. No two ways about that. Oh, I like it. Okay, so we've done 283,000 contracts. And what we just did here is that you just got over these prices. Okay, so that's... Under or over? Actually, over. We didn't get over to 1522, but what this has done thus far, that was pushing higher with volume. So, we have 283,000 contracts right now. Last week, you did 400,000. And we will do somewhere around that today. So, it's going to be intriguing watching the rest of this baby shake out. So, we put this intraday. And you're going to see the downdraft. No doubt about that. There's the downdraft on the tweet. And now the question is, the bulls and bears will fight it out the rest of the day. King Dala. You know what King Dala? King Dala is almost giving it up to Swann and Tom. We were down 399 ticks a little bit earlier. And then it just said, nope, I don't want to go any lower. But you can see this morning. So, your benchmark is still 98,932. Okay. High of August first. Yeah, that would get it in a lower range. The big lower range, though, is 98,371. So, watch this earlier. Because it's hard to figure out whether... I mean, the doll has just been hanging at these highs. And, you know... Yeah, it wasn't a big... Well, we don't have the volume on this anyway. So, we made a low at... What is that? It's five o'clock this morning. Yeah. And then... Yeah, as soon as you're kind of opening back up... Well, the tweet... Yeah, the tweet pushed it higher, too. The tweet was a 950. 950, okay. One bar before that, really. That was kind of sane in the market. It was pretty high. We got a 10, 12-point S&P pop on it. Nothing to dismiss. But, man, we were already 40, 45 S&P points off of that overnight low. Having to do with, you know, the news came out that they might make a currency pact. Yeah. If the rhetoric comes true, that could be true. But that's quite nifty. So, we'll see. So, the first news that sent itself was that the stocks were already falling apart and they hadn't even technically... And they were leaving the day early. Yeah. Right, right. Yeah. And I heard a great quote this morning, folks. It was someone on Bloomberg. And the guy says... He says, hey, listen, man, the way this is... And they were asking about how do you trade this mark. And he says, you know what? He was talking about fading it every time that you're going up. Okay. But he says, what we've learned, he says, no matter whether it's a positive or negative, right? One's coming out. And he says, just give it another hour or two and then there's going to be something on the other side. That's true. You know what I mean? Because none of us know what's really going on. Yeah. And the logic context, the bottom line is that, you know, my take is that once you get a war start in which we have in a huge way, it's hard to stop it. Yeah, I see what you're looking at here. So, PG and E, right? I think PG, PG, PCG. There we go. This baby here, folks, okay. It's sticking out for a long time. And, you know, I've talked about this many times for years on the year. What I kind of quite understand is, you have companies, right, that absolutely are bankrupt, right? But yet the SEC still allows them to trade, right? And so you see people that really, well, you see sophisticated people buy it, but you see a lot of people that really just don't, you know, they say, okay, well, the thing's trading. It's really down from a lot. It's the biggest electric company in the world, and all of California, right? And, you know, bottom line is, you know, this thing is BK. What they, what, you see it down 30% today. And what's happening today is that, now the judge ruled they wanted exclusive right as to how to go through their bankruptcy. And the judge was, no, that's not going to happen. The debt holders are going to come in. Yeah, they have no control anymore. Yeah, they're going to fight it out. He's going to let Elliott look at it. He's going to let Pimp Go look at it. So they're all going to come in with different proposals. And if you look at this equity, what you're going to see, which is sticking out like a thumb, is this high volume low. And it's taking a long time to get there. But, you know, that's where you're going. Look at that thing. So what is it? That's last January. Yes. I believe that's, you know, not as a discuss gaining because you can see that. I'm sure the fires really started, whether it was November, I'm not sure. That was the second time. Yeah, that's right. So that's the first fire. And that's the second fire. And you can see that high volume low is at $5 and something, right? Yes, $5.07, I believe. $5.07. And so they lost... Want me to pull the article over? Yeah, they lost that. And then on top of that, the bottom line is that you get... there's a couple other analysts that are saying it's going to go to zero now. Of course it's going to go to zero. They bankrupt. But this article here is about good. So it's just the two of them. Like you were talking about bondholders, specific investment, and Elliott, that they're going to be able to pitch their own restructuring plan alongside PG&E so they can both come up with ways the utility could deal with an estimated $30 billion in the liabilities from those fires. Right. Yeah. You know what? I don't get that. Like, what's happening is that now they get big blackouts there, right? Because they don't... They're preempted backouts. Yeah. They're dropping them purposefully to avoid, hopefully, a fire, as they say. Right. There's gusts of 70 miles an hour. Right now, as I was saying this morning. What I don't get is that, okay, you have a lot... That's the utility company in California. Then you have the people saying they want your electricity. Well, somehow you've got to make a lot of protect the utility. I mean, I understand... You can't have both, right? Right. I understand they didn't do their work and yeah, that's BK now. But something has to get in place to get electricity. Sure. And they're living in the middle of, you know, plenty of trees in California. And they have very dry weather. You know? So, they're... Yeah. That's what I really don't get out of the whole thing, you know? No. As in, yeah. We'll talk about it. Stay right there, folks. Tom and I will come right back down. Now is up 136. Now is next up 14. Peace up 14. We'll come right back. There is a standalone piece of software that instantly filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks, ETFs, commodity futures, and forex. Headed by Steve Dahl, Taz understands that in today's technological world, the use of top flight software applications and technical analysis expertise is essential to successful trading in today's market. 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Details on The Tiger's Den are on the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN has launched our brand new website. You can still visit us at the same TFNN.com URL. But when you do, you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation whether you're watching Tiger TV live in high definition or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions. We even have new pricing in six months and yearly options. Check out the new TFNN.com now and experience all the upgrades. TFNN.com educating investors. 6-6-4-8 internationally at 727-873-7-6-1-8. Folks down. That was up 165. Now it's a 50 S&Ps up 17 and a half and we are going to be having natural gas coming up in 10 minutes. That's right. So we got inventories coming out. 10.30 a.m. Eastern time every Thursday. Let's jump up and pull out the contract. We're going to go to commodities, natural gas. We're looking at the November contract. Natural gas right now trading at 225. I heard Larry talking about natural gas this morning on his program, 223. I think he was talking about quite a price tag for natural gas in terms of where it's traded. So let's see. We're trading at about 225 right now and I'm going to pull this up real quick with a little reference. So we're looking at natural gas. It looks like they're checking out the whisper numbers about 100 for an increase in the inventory for the weekly number. Survey on Blueburg 98. Either way, looking for a build of some degree. Let's see. So we're coming into the fall, right? And there's still a bill. That's interesting, isn't it? I was talking to some subscribers this morning. They were saying up in Boston, they had the heat on for the first time. It was 52, 53, and their house was in the low 50s. And they said, oh, I'm going to pop on the heat. Why not? So maybe some of that natural gas. So let's start it off with the 11 a.m. So we're trading at 225. What's nice is we have exposure from 225 in 20 cents in both directions, right? So here's our bullish spread. You go from 225 to 245. We have eight ticks, essentially, of intrinsic value, because we're trading at 225. Eight. This contract cost us $16. Not bad. Eight bucks of premium, eight bucks of value, you could call it, on the bullish side. Now, this expires at 11 a.m., so you only have 40 minutes of exposure. You're going to get the inventory numbers at 10.30, though, which is what you might only be trading. And on the bear side, you're out of the money. So a similar level of premium to snow value, right? 25, 25 bucks for both sides of it, 16 plus nine. Oh, yes, yeah. And even as this is ticking around a bit, even 17, nine. So 25, 26, 27 bucks, a buck on each side of commission. Not bad if you really get a pop in either direction, because we're kind of sitting right there. But let's see how the noons line up and if we're going to get the same price point. I think we may. So the noons, the bullish side, the 11 a.m. was 17 bucks. For the extra hour until noon, we're only looking at 18. Now this is ticking around a bit. I'm going to reset this market. So 15 to 18, here's your 11 a.m. You can buy it at 226.6 now. Really? Nothing? I want to say nothing, right? I know. But two ticks, you can see the difference of what you're, you know, you can buy it at the offer. Here's your 11 a.m. You're buying it at 226.5. And it almost looks like when you look at the bid not for just if you're looking at these screens, folks, is that like you get retail traders in the middle, baby. You know, we get five on each side and 20. They may be market makers. I think they're two different market makers is what it is. But it is nice that, you know, you get a tighter spread. Right. Because you can see that they, each market maker has a seven bid offer spread, but they're pricing it differently by a penny. Whereas this market maker is 226 by 226.7. Whereas this market maker is probably one tick higher. 226.1 by 226.8. Each of them having a seven penny spread. They want that business. But combined, you're getting the six penny spread, right? Right. So here's your noon. You'd be buying because you're at 225. And it's what's nice is this is even ticking back closer and closer to 225. We're at 225.8 to start. We're now almost at 225.4. So you'd be buying the bullish spread. 225 down to 205 on the bear side. And we'll pull it up. We're going to put in a... Yeah, we got to get that whispered. I guess. 12. So you're looking at under $30. Call it $30, $31 with commission. So you'd be looking at 30 cents of movement. Basically from right... Excuse me. 3 cents. Yeah. From 225. And let's just see where the deal is. You want to jump around? Okay. I see you. I see you. We see you getting antsy. Okay. You got two minutes and 40 seconds. Well, I just want to get that active contract. Yep. No, we're dealing with November's, right? We are. Yeah. Okay. So let's see. So we are at 225. Yep. Interesting. So it's rejected lower price out here this morning. And man, quite a run from that 275 high of mid-September. Yeah, 275. So you're down yesterday. Hasn't tested it. Okay, 220. Okay. Go ahead. I think I'm still in a little bearish situation there. Okay. So if you're bearish, right? Theoretically, you'd look for a bigger build, right? Yeah. If we have a ton of supply, people are going to be paying cheaper prices for the same amount. So you'd be looking for even a bigger. What do you think? How about 103? Want to go bigger than that? Whatever you want. Good. 103. Let's see. Okay, good. The number's 100. Whoops. Are we entering it? Not letting us for some reason. There it is. Oh, you know what? The number lock button, folks. You know it. Okay, cool. All right. We're good. And interesting, we don't go over it as much because they don't trade us heavily, but we get corn and stocks and soybean and stocks. I wonder if those will pop up in the same 10.30 a.m. eastern time. It looks like coming up on that number. And it's 10.23 right now. Now, let's just see out of curiosity if a trade's possible for the dailies because we went over the 11 a.m. expirations. Yeah. We went over the noons, right? You're looking at between 2.6 pennies to 3 pennies, depending on how much time you want, but I think the dailies may line up. Nope. Okay. So right away, the first dailies, you only have 220. And I wonder if the 2.30s are going to be any different now. So the 11 a.m. Expiration and noons, they both have 225. And we'll see what happens. We're six minutes away from that number. You're going to love it. Yeah? Our phone number is 877-927-6648. Right now, let's see. Once you got that pop, we'll see the bulls and bears are fighting it out right at that level. Yeah, hanging tough. And I think I even have the tweet, why don't we pull it up just for reference and time? So that's the one that popped in the most recent. Big day of negotiations with China. They want to make a deal. But do I? I meet with the vice premier tomorrow at the White House. That tweeted, that's probably Pacific, I'm guessing, because it was 9.49 a.m. Yeah, interesting, right? Yeah, I'm not sure. Right. That's the first time I saw it with that time stamp. Because even if you back it up, it shows 35 minutes ago on that correlation, his most recent tweet. Right. Yeah. Maybe you just, maybe you wrote it then and you decided to do it at the open on the market. You already bought some coal. I think it's time. You bought some calls on the S&P. Yeah. Okay. Hey. Hey. Let's go take a look at the 30-year bond out here. So these have been hanging tough. You know, yesterday it came down with light volume. Today, oh, that's going to be interesting. So we get some volume. There's 200,000. It's a good volume out here, I think, today. It's just been to what we're going into. That's a lot of volume. Well, I see what we're going into though. And I was still going into 489. Trigging. Okay. So the time would have been October 1. Low is 160. The high is 163. And we'll see whether they get in at 289,000. You could. This is still, that's absolutely early in the morning to have 200,000 contracts in the 30. Yeah. In the 30. Especially when it seems like it could be a day of speculative headlines that could spur some more pops in either direction. It's only 10-25 in the morning. That's right. You know, as a man, Mr. Basil Chatman would say, the day is young. That's true. He would say that at three o'clock also. Yeah. Which he's absolutely right. That's right. That's right. There's no doubt about that. So let's go take a look at some of the higher volume equities. I know there's a biotech that got bought out at double the amount of money. Good for them. I hope I'm Mr. Bud Robs had it. Kudos. Where is it? Here it is right here. Let's see. RA Pharmaceuticals, huh? Yeah. So let's see what these guys do. Let's see. We'll operate a clinical stage biopharmacompany to accompany office drugs to treatment of cancer, inflammation, autoimmune diseases. Diabetes, cardiovascular, and quite a plethora. Cambridge. Look at that. Cambridge Mass. One million in revenue. And they might slightly believe it. Oh, that's not even in yet. They, right? It's not. It's the 600,000. Yes. It would be the $2 billion market cap, I believe, at that price tag. So maybe they're buying it at about 221. It looked like. There you go. 2.144, probably just over that level. It's phenomenal. Stay right there, folks. Come right back. Hi, folks. Tom O'Brien here. If you'd like to get my daily newsletter and market insights, then now is a great time to sign up for a 30-day free trial. Every morning by 9.30, I send out my morning letter to subscribers with market commentary on a variety of markets, currencies, and commodities to keep investors up-to-date on the day's trading action. 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We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of the Art of Timing the Trade Chart today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Folks, EIA. Natural gas stock piles rose 98 BCF. That's what they were looking for. That was the median estimate. Pretty much exactly. Median estimate, 98. Bloomberg number was the bigger number at 100. We came in at 103. But let's see how it's hitting the market. We'll jump back to the charts. And the contract? No real movement. 226.64 right now. You're looking at the active contract, November. As we're talking, we're getting a little volatility. But that number, I mean, you can see the 10.25 bar. We had already inched up a bit prior to that number. So yeah, you could say you got a brief spike, maybe the 227. We're sitting at 226. That's really where those trades are lining up prior to the number. And it doesn't mean you won't get some volatility. But anytime you're looking for volatility, it'd be nice if you could get a miss, right? One way or the other on that inventory number. Because you need three pennies. I believe the 12. Yeah, you know. The 12, you needed three, 3.1, 3.2 pennies. Even the 11 a.m., you needed 2.5 pennies, 2.6 to cover your cost, a buck on each side of that. That's away from the 225. Yeah, so about three pennies. So you'd be looking for either 222 or 228. You start to break even, slash grab some profits, and you'd have exposure for 20 cents. So as we speak though, we're now almost two pennies off the high. So we'll check back in on that number, but neither way. Still a build, right? Still a build. 100 billion cubic feet almost, 98, but still a build. Lots of natural gas, folks. That's for sure. Lots of natural gas. Some of the, we'll get over to Bed Beth and beyond. They got a new target executive over there. Yeah, I heard. Yeah, let's bring it up right now. The market's excited to bring some of that targe over there. And what the executive folks is known for, he brought, I think it said 40 brands, he made 40 target brands. Okay. You know, so I don't know how many Bed Beth and beyond brands they actually have, but that's what this guy does. Let's see. So Bed Beth and beyond sold Thursday, questionable, but they are up good. 25%. Analysts were encouraged by the announcement that given, what's the guy's name? So it's E.E.E.E. It was the first one. The head merchant, Mark Triton, or Triton as the new CEO. Yeah. So an analyst broadly encouraged by the announcement, given his successful tenured target and he cited the new CEO, an analyst citing the new CEO's retail slash consumer pedigree and merchandising and private label development expertise and experience. Yeah, I'd be interested to know myself. I mean, Target has some good brands. They do. I know I probably have some target, whether it's lamps, whether it's small stools, right? You could buy tables, desks, that type of, I'm sure, you know, on top of just normal, towels, glasses, and the so forth. It's almost like every time that you go into Publix, folks, they have more and more of Publix brands. I'm a huge fan of the GreenWise products in there. Yeah, there's no doubt. Whether the chicken, they have a GreenWise, you know, a lot of stuff, veggies, et cetera. Yeah. Yeah, and they just talk about their only hang-up is he's never been a CEO before, but if that's your only knock on somebody, man, you know, executives at these multinational companies, they might as well be CEOs when you're in an executive, you know, position right under any type of manager when you're talking about a company like Target. They have plenty of money to bring in more advisors. Yeah. No doubt about that. And we take a look at the equity. Boy, oh boy, quite a run from that August low. Yeah, so. And quite a run from that. Yeah. Can we put it even further back when you're not because I bet that's not all the pain. Even further back maybe. Wow, I just put a three years back. We haven't found an end to the trend. But it's been going on for a month. There we go. Man, that's probably one. 80 bucks. Look at that. 2015. They got all the way up to 79. Oh, I got to bring this all the way back. Keep going. All right, let's see. You know why this is testing on testing the high volume low somewhere, man? That's blew it by. Look at that. Actually blew right by it. Well, let me bring it back further. I'm back to 25, 20 years now. Retour actively. You could probably always find if a company's going to go bankrupt where it's running all your pride. I mean, so quite a run from that. And it's really remarkable from the crisis of 2008. That's from 2011 bucks. And they actually went lower than that. Yeah, it was down below eight, I think, or nine. Yeah, 731. Yeah. Look at that poor thing, man. One of those stories, I think, as it even kicked in, right? Even 2012, look how it hung tough from late 2012 all the way through 2015, where they were everybody kept saying, you know, even in our program, I believe, you know, how do you compete there? How do you do it? And it seems like eventually the market got the best of them in terms of the market being Amazon and Walmart and Target. Right, because they changed their business plan. They had brought so much more electronics inside the stores. Okay. They would make a lot of money in the phones then. Apple was running. Bed Bath & Beyond? Oh, Bed Bath & Beyond. No, that's best spot. Oh, no, I was just saying, you know, there's no help for Bed Bath & Beyond. Oh, my God. Yeah. Well, we'll see how many stores you can get closed. You know, I mean, the space that they have in there, that's very true. That space is like pretty intense, man. No doubt about that. Yes. The, let's go look at Amazon, you know. Speaking of that, the holidays are coming. They are. Christmas decorations are out in force already. We got to get past, we got to get past Halloween and Thanksgiving, and Halloween, you know, Halloween folks, it's a mind blow. Even just Google it. The amount that is spent on Halloween is just amazing. Okay. I mean, it's a monster. Kids are everywhere. They all need costumes. They all need candy. It's a monster number. Yeah. And not to mention decorations and all that fun. Right. But it's fun getting dressed up. Oh, sure. Yeah. I enjoy the Trick-or-Treaters coming to my house. You know, the good ones. Some good Reese's, some good Snickers in there. I know. Reese's, man. Reese's. Whoever made Reese's, folks, I mean, they just, that's just the ultimate. Oh, look at that. Look at that natural gas. Give it a moment and it'll catch up, man. So just checking back in. We were trained about 226 coming into the inventory number. It came in pretty much in line. Quick spike to 227 and boom. We're going 223 just like that. And again, though, we need about three pennies. Now the thing to keep in mind is if you really thought, you know, you were going to decide this trade and the other one's going to remain active until whether it's 11 a.m. or noon, the noon's kind of nice because you have some more time to go higher or lower. But if you were bullish somehow and you traded both sides of it, let's just see what you could get rid of the bearish one right now, right? There's your bearish spread. There's your noon. You could buy it back and you could take 16 bucks off the table and then you'd basically be in the bullish trade for $14, right? So you need this to be a penny out above 225 where you start to break even. Just different ways you can manage it depending on if you think, you know, you might have been looking for a bigger miss and you say, you know what, I'm going to take 50, 60% of what I put up off the table because already I've kind of missed my expectation which was you were open for a miss on the number which didn't come in. Right. Now this is delayed. Yes. So we haven't seen the number come in yet. That's why it's so strange right now. A low of the last swing is 220. Yeah. A low of yesterday is 222. 222. 229. Yeah. So we're very close to that as well. Man. Energy, you know, when you look at these numbers just gasoline, oil, gas in general. And how about just you make me think we'll talk about let's take a look at Tesla when we come back because Tesla had to send an update to Tesla and planned outages. What do you do if you're at Tesla and they're actually planning to cut out your electricity in the area? And look at it still not down. Not down. That's pretty wild. It is. Yeah. And GenRack. GenRack was up 13% yesterday. That would make sense if they're cutting the cord to the electric company in the biggest state of the union. Right. Stay right there folks. Come right back. If you're in the CD market and looking for a way to make it cheaper, you can go to Florida. The tax act of 2018 set up tax-free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits which makes these lots valuable. The investment is anywhere from 30,000 to 75,000. The interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis. According to bankrate.com, the best rate for a four-year CD in the country as of today. That's the same $50,000 investment in the Tiger First Mortgage Program where you give you 3500 per year of 14,000 over the four years. What should you prefer? 6200 or 14,000 of interest on your investment? If you'd like more information about the Tiger First Mortgage Program, you can call me at 877- 518- 9190. That's 877- 518- 9190. 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An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor Four Side Fund Services, LLC. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV for the latest market information. All right, folks, I doubt. That was up 160 Nasdaqs, up 48, S&Ps are up 18. Let's just go to the financials for a second. The XLF, because what we had out here is that they've had a high-time holding price. I'm just curious, you know, you get rates going up today. Okay, so they get a little pop. The XL is up $0.37. I think we're at like 1.64 on the 10-year right now. From like a 1.57, 1.58 in the beginning of today. Fast move, yeah. There's no doubt. 10-year, let's pull this baby up. These bonds, man. I was reading an article just somewhere on the internet today talking about, you know, the 60-40 split of bonds to, excuse me, from stocks to bonds, diversification, talking about retirement allocation type. That might not be a strategy that you should be employing, and I would be very serious. My mom retired, I've been talking to her, and my biggest fear is, you know, you can't just buy bonds right now and think that it's this stable, stable return of income in a somewhat really volatile stock market because we're in a different... Now, you're talking about bond funds. Yes, the price of bonds they're trading. That's correct. Not off the treasury. Yep, if you plan on holding them to expiration and you're only looking for a coupon and you know what you're locking in and you're okay with that, but if you're... Treasury direct, that's where we're gonna go. Yep, but if you're buying bond funds, as most people are, when you're with a Fidelity, Schwal, TD Ameritrade, you're paying for any type of money management, whether it's a percent a year or a management fee, percent and a half, they're not getting managed to put you into treasuries most of the time. They're getting managed to put you, if you're with a Fidelity, into a Fidelity bond fund, into a Fidelity stock fund. So be very aware. And they're all trading over the principal in a huge way. Yeah, as in you're gonna have principal risk that is gonna come with that bond funds yield and man, oh man, you better watch out as today, like today, you know, where you have those bonds the 10 year, if you're trading the 10 year, right, you know, you're out at minus 14 ticks, if you trade the 30 year, you're off a full point. Well, good luck getting yield when you have that type of volatility on your, the principal. Right, and if we go to the TLT, so this is the 20 year plus and, you know. I mean, it's a perfect example, you know, there's a, I don't wanna say a million bond funds. There's a lot of bond funds out there and they're not all gonna be as volatile, probably as the TLT, even just recently, depending on how they're diversified. But the TLT is, should be pretty, pretty stable as in it should have. Can we just push it back up before? I wanna see what, cause they really talked about the 2000s, you know, they talked about, I don't know how far back the TLT was actually created. That'll be the test. You mean when last time it got smoked was 1994. No, no, I was just saying, and no, no, I was just even saying, you know, in the 2000s and the two, excuse me, in the 90s, no, in the 2000s and 2010s, basically the last 20 years, right? I mean, and you can see that even in the, from 2002, when you go through the crisis, you had some volatility, but all in all pretty stable. Yes. But man, oh man, you just went from 110 to 150. Right. If you don't think this is a range that if you bought in right now. Right. You could go back to 110, 115, even if the consensus is always rising, okay? Even if you created, you know, now how do we, I mean, you know, talk about, you could have a huge trading range here from even if you call that the upper end. Yep. Whoops, not track. We want one more bar and you know where it's gonna be, right? I mean, we're just trying to use the linear regression of correlating those lows. Look at that. You're under 120. And speaking of, we'll give Bud Ross two Bud Ross mentions today with the channel. Exactly, exactly. Because man, oh man, you know, you don't have to be a genius to see this thing bouncing, bouncing, bouncing, bouncing, bouncing, bouncing, bouncing. Well, folks, where's the next bounce, right? Even if you extrapolate in time and raise your bit, 120, 122, 121. In a normal uptrend. Yes. So be aware of that volatility. That was a good article, a good point. Oh, it's a huge point. Yes. Particularly because, you know, people equate bonds, not all bonds, but definitely trophies with safety, you know what I mean? Oh, and I would say, I wouldn't even go that far. People, as in people, smart, intelligent, in the, you know, retired or something where they have money in the market, they equate, oh, but I'm in 60% stocks, 40% bonds, I'm protected. And it's like, well, you know, do you realize that your capital, if you want to retire tomorrow and take your money out, that no, you just lost price appreciation of a leg, you know, dramatic effect. One of the biggest downdraps, I don't know if we can bring them up, but 1994, folks, it was a slaughter inside the bond market. And it was a slaughter, like, within about six months. Okay. Man, you know. I wonder if the 10-year can somehow get it generic. Yeah, let's see. There's our yield. Yeah. Let's see how back we're gonna go. We'll pop it up, GPO first. Yeah, we shouldn't be able to go back 50 years. I think we should, depending on how these generics line up. And we're gonna go a monthly 30-year? Well, no, maybe not even. We'll go quarterly 50-year and see how far back they pop us. So where, the slaughter, what were you? It's from 1994. Oh, okay. Okay, this is the yield, excuse me, yeah. So you would have had, yep, there's the beginning of 94. You had the yield pop all the way from, let me get the number. 6.2. 5.1. Yeah. To 7.6. Right. My goodness. The price had to be devastating. Right, exactly. And that was, well, since I've been in the business, that was one of the first times that people didn't know what happened to them. Yeah, I imagine. That was that dramatic, do you know what I mean? I mean, just a huge from a yield from it's almost a 50% rise, right? Particularly, let's see how far I had gone down for so many years. Yeah. You know. You had the yield, I mean, come on. Is that even a misprint? 15.8%. Well, that's right. And your yield, I know. That's 81. I mean, remarkable, man. And you went from 15.8 and to 86, you were, I'm 6.9%. You know what's so cool about this chart, folks, is that, see, the bond market has been in a bull market since 1981. The price of it, as in the years. It's not over. I mean, until you can see this chart, we've been consolidating now for a long period of time, almost like 2013, right? Yeah, yeah. I mean, you could even call it from here to here. Yeah, that's what I'm looking at, right? Excuse me. And if you break that, that's, we break that consolidation, that's when you go negative. Sure. And the other way you could look at it too, in terms of the downward though, let me just get down and draw the same lines because they would somewhat set up these lows. I mean, that's a scary in terms of you there. Now you're consolidating, but you're still getting the lower highs, is what I'm. Yeah. Whoops, we're gonna, this guy. And that's what you do with trends, folks. Right? It's the bottom line. I mean, something like that, you could probably move this. Oh, I can't. See, now that. You gotta move that line down maybe a little bit. But what does happen, if you happen to watch and tag a TV, even if you take it off this one. That red line is a dangerous line for the bond market. Yeah. You know? Because it's like, okay, we've been in that channel, and if you can have the bottom of that channel as time goes out, well, guess what? Guess where it goes, man? Zero. Yeah. That's a yield, zero. Right. Yeah. And when you do that, just the break of the consolidation we're in, it's 0.08. Okay. If you take what we're at for the opera. Yeah, exactly. So even at conservative, the higher range we were at was about 3.03. That high was 3.25. And then to take the low, yeah. Right, we're trading 1.6. I mean, that brings it, you know, we're about 1.6 off of the high. Right. Just from where we were trading at at the beginning of this year, 3.0, excuse me, 3.25, down to 1.64, but basically cut in half. Right now. Yeah. And you know, the bottom line, you know, you get Powell on the Fed claiming it's not QE. Well, they're gonna buy the bonds, you know? So you can call it if you want to call it, but they're buying those bonds, man. I agree, capital on the market. Right. Yeah. 55 Nasdaq up 47, S&P's up 17. Stay right there folks. Tell me that I come right back. If you're a trader in the market looking for exposure to gold or gold mining equities, then now is a perfect time to sign up for Tom O'Brien's gold report. The summer is over, gold is trading back above $1,500 and the 10-year treasury is hovering at around 1.5%. Tom O'Brien has been writing his weekly gold report for almost 18 years. There's no one that knows more about how the gold market trades and how gold mining equities react. New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose. Every Monday morning, Tom publishes his weekly gold report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds, the XAU, HUI, GDX, the dollar, as well as more than 30 different mining equities. As of September 3rd, gold report subscribers have five active open positions with an average unrealized profit of almost 38% for each position. To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report, sign up today by visiting tfnn.com. Since 1984, Basel Chapman has been using the Chapman Wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion. While originally hand drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s, Basel noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply. Later, Basel found that computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhanced the degree of accuracy in calling price turns as well as market trend calls. Thus was born the Chapman Wave sequence. Using the Chapman Wave methodology along with other indicators, Basel Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter. Right now, you can get a two week free trial to the opening call, Basel's daily trading newsletter by visiting the front page of tfnn.com. Cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing. Get your two week free trial to Basel's newsletter, the opening call today by visiting tfnn.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. Folks, I doubt, dial up 170 and has a cup 55, S&Ps up 20, and folks, man, Mr. Larry Pezzavento next Wednesday is gonna be coming up. He's gonna be doing a live webinar for his subscribers. You can be a subscriber to Fibonacci 24x7 right here, right now. The way to do it, come over to our website at tfnn. You're gonna go right into featured content. You're gonna see on the right hand side. Fibonacci 24x7, he's got that subscriber webinar one week from yesterday, so sign up for that. He's always got great reports coming out over the weekend as well, so it's a great time to sign up. He's got updates almost every day, whether in chart or video form. And then he has, man, I go through and look at it every weekend, and it's just so much information, man. He is just sitting at that computer putting out charts. He's usually got at least two videos he makes talking about the markets, yeah. And then he's even got the longer-term futures charts talking about monthly, sometimes even quarterly charts going back for everything, kind of a week summation. But Wednesday night, welcome to the Halloween party in the stock market. He sent me over a couple of titles. He chose- Spooky. That's right, he chose that one, and I liked it, and becoming a Halloween party on Wall Street, do the end of this month. Well, that works out in Halloween, October 31st, right? And he's gonna be talking the use of application of artificial intelligence in trading volatile markets. Do we have some volatile markets? That should be applicable. He's talking about how to use harmonic numbers when trading the volatile markets. A brief history of the last three tops in the stock market over the last 25 years. It will include a daily outline of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and E-mini through the month of October and also a trade of the day, which is the best setup we see in the 16 markets that Larry follows. As always, new subscribers, 30-day money-back guarantee. I encourage you to come over here. You can sign up, whether it's a month, whether it's six months, whether it's a year. All of those come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you can add some savings. Maybe jump into the six months. You're saving 22%. The yearly saving 32%, a full 379. But either way, great service, man. Check it out. Should be great on a week from Wednesday. Stay right there, folks. I think there's some coming up next. Thanks, pal. Thanks, man. That was quick. Yeah, go get them, folks.