 Good morning, and welcome to the Monday at market update with me David badm today's date is Monday the 28th of October 2019 and the time has just gone 1005 GMT It's been a fairly subdued session here in Europe Broadly speaking at European economic markets are a bit lower. The tax is hanging on to positive ground But buying the rise we're looking I think you're a bit lower the big news this morning has been that the the European Union has agreed to get to do to to grant the The UK as a three-month extension to for leaving the European Union So, you know, it's looking quite likely that Brexit is going to be delayed By three months until the end of January 2020 and this has been going around that This we talked with this for the last few days. So it's been no real. It's been no real surprise But politics is going to remain very much in focus for the rest of the training day and indeed the Depending on things play out later today Boris Johnson is hoping to get hoping to get approval By his fellow MPs for the hold a general election on the 12th of December now He would need to get a two-thirds majority in House of Commons to to get approval And that isn't looking too likely seeing us that senior members of the Labour Party have already come out and said They're not going to a back it unless the no deal of possibility is taken off the table and that is something that can't or won't be Or won't will be committed to by by Mr. Johnson But there's a lot away from that There's talk of a bill being put forward by the S&P and the Liberal Democrats the other smaller opposition parties Who are trying to just put a bill forward just just so actually you don't even require a simple majority in House of Commons To actually look to press press ahead for a general election and the date that they're thinking about is December 9th So let me keep an eye on that in terms of how things are going to play out in domestic politics Also, what's going on at the back end of last week? We heard from a US trade representative that there is quote-unquote headway being made between the US and China when it comes to trade and So to say that things are looking like we're not too far away from kind of phase one of the kind of trade deal being completed So that's that's that's been Something that's been going on in the country markets Not to mention of course a reporting season here in Europe and over the US is continue to continue to go along So I'll take a look now at some of the week ahead article some of the major stories The week ahead article can be found on our website if you go to cmcmarkets.com Under news under insights you'll find the news and analysis section and you can find the article here So looking head to tomorrow, we have third quarter figures from BP On Wednesday, we have the Bank of Canada industry decision on Wednesday. We have US GDP and we also have the Federal Reserve meeting Wednesday We also have the fourth quarter figures from Apple We have third quarter figures from Facebook on Thursday. We have the Bank of Japan meeting We also have a third quarter numbers from Lloyd's on Thursday morning and a Friday We have the all-important US manufacturing Apologies US job support the non-compare of support and then also we have a raft of manufacturing figures PMI reports From a number of major European economies coming out during the week as well So I've served I start off now with the books in London and And continue on as I get some of the major indices some of the major currency pairs and finally some commodities So we take a look at the price action the putsy Basically for the month of October we've seen the pretty decent move to the upside and the putsy We could see that this this this line here the water to move the average which comes to play at 73 35 It's actually it's fairly decent resistance The market is a struggle to break above it on a few occasions But the wider trend for the past month or so is to the very much in play And if you do manage to break above this level here, we could see the highs achieved in late September in around 7,440 or up to this zone here 7,470 this area being targeted as the next potential area of resistance should you move on higher from here? If the other hand the market does manage to move lower support could be found from this blue line here The fifth of the moving average which comes into play at 7,240 We can see in a few occasions that metric acted as a support and our resistance An act of resistance on a few occasions not to go so it's quite possible that all resistance could become new support Obviously there are no guarantees though start take a look now at the The Germany 30 the DAX so last week will actually even today We saw a level being achieved in the DAX that hasn't been achieved Since June last year so we're looking over over a year high so give you indication of how Strong things are over the Germany 30 The markets in a solid upper trend. We're currently training at 12,925 if the kind of wider upper trend does continue we could be looking at targeting the kind of psychology important 1313,000 number and if you go beyond that you can be looking at targeting this area here in a 13,200 But I will say is this though so price action is key price tells is by far the most important indicator But it's just it's just worth noting that if you take a look at the MACD histogram the MACD indicator We can see that momentum is still positive But it's slightly tapering off and it's a bit concerning when you see the price action moving higher and higher higher on lower momentum It would suggest that the buyers are in control, but it would seem that they're running out of steam So that might lead to the market actually Moving a bit lower and sure that that be the case support could be found from this area here in around 12,800 and the move below that could take us back down toward this zone here 12,660 down to 12,600 Take a look what's going over on the US so we're currently expecting the Dow Jones Once the trading it's underway to currently respect you to open north of the psychological important 27,000 mark So we're still very much in the kind of upper trend mark has been moving steadily higher throughout the month of October We're still in the in the upper trend and if you do much you continue in the upper trend And we could be looking at retest this area here in around 27,000 125 there they're about the mid-october highs and if you go beyond that you could be tracking this zone here In around 27,300 which would be the mid-september highs and if you take that out Then we wouldn't be too far away from the all-time highs that were up here in around 27,400 If you do have any pullbacks in the Dow Jones Support could be found for this blue line here The fifth of the movie average and that comes to play at 26,653 we can see it a few occasions that that metric actor support in the past So it makes it more likely it will act as support in the future, but obviously there are no guarantees If you do have a very sizable move to the downside In the Dow Jones support could be found in this red line here Which is the tourney movie average and that comes to play just south of 26,200 We can see that that metric actor as support back in May and October or so as possible in my next fort again We should now take a look at the S&P 500 and we're called S&P 500 a bit lower Today bucket mind on Friday The interday high of the S&P 500 managed to take out The the record close high so give indication to sell bulletings there We're not a million miles away from the all-time interday high on the S&P 500 So things are looking quite positive and three months you're going to press on higher from here. We could be looking at our getting 3028 3030 and then if you go beyond that, you know, we're an alternative We would be in on charter territory So we could be looking at numbers like 3040 3050 so on and so forth And he moves to the downside could finance his support from this region here The kind of cycle launch important 3000 mark if you move below that below that this blue line here My doctor support and that is the fifth of the movie average and that comes to the play Well 2957 Take a look now. What's going on with the currency markets? So we saw here that at the beginning of the month in October. We saw a very Decent rebound in the at the Europe versus the US dollar It's still in the kind of wider upper trend of the past month or so, although we have seen a bit of a pullback I Said she if you can hold above the fifth of the movie average this blue line here And that comes to the play in her inner one 1035 if you could hold above that metric It's like you at the kind of the more recent say for four week old upper trend could continue I would go lucky every test in this area here this red line Which comes to play and in at one spot 12 and if you go beyond that We could be looking at targeting the early on August highs of in at one spot 12 49 If on the other hand the market does balance your press on lower I would and we do drop on the break below the 50 movie average It could be heading back down towards the one spot 10 zone down around here and a move below that I could be a sign that they get a wider negative mood is Make a move is still a still intact and we could looking at a heavy back down towards some 109 retesting the early on October lows I'll take a look now. What's going on on the British pound versus the US dollar? It's slightly higher today Like I said, there's no talk about the EU granting an extension to the UK to leave the European Union in late January 2020 and that has been confirmed So take a look at the price actions since September better very impressive move to the upside in the British Pound versus the US dollar and only last only recently we fit levels that were basically set based There were that were five months high and pound versus the dollar So the upper trend is left very much in play But I'm just ever so slightly concerned at which the rate of which particularly from mid-October on was the rate of which the British Pound shot up When you see it move a gradient this steep You know, it's can be followed by a bit of a correction and then a continuation of the of the of the train put in a at a slower pace We have seen the lows of today are still off the lows of the past couple of days So that does both well for the rally and if you continue to kind of hold above the last week you know the the low on Thursday in just Sub once about 28 if you can hold above the kind of 128 metric We could be looking at our retesting the kind of 130 area and if you go beyond that We could they'd be looking at testing the early may high in at one spot 31 78 If you do have a fairly size of break to the downside We could really can get a retesting this this red line here in at one spot 27 14 And a move below that could take us back down towards one spot 26 Take a look at what's going on on the commodities market starting off with the gold market So go that a massive rally for quite a few months. It is six year high in September So clearly quite bullish and then we had it the lower low a lower high a lower low a lower high So for a while their goal was looking that we could be looking at that moving lower yet again but notice how the lows of it bid October or Firmly above the lows of early October And we actually were managed to actually trade back above the 50 will be average So it looks like at the because the lower low the lower high the lower low and the lower high It looks at that that potential kind of negative move Has come to an end and we could look to continue the wider upward trend that's in play So if you do look the prep you can hold Continue to hold both the fifth it will be average in around one 15 or five if you could hold above that We could look at retesting this area here at 15 20 and if you go beyond that you can be a targetting The late September high at around 15 35 and then if you go beyond that you can make your targeting High the high September in around 15 57 If in the other hand the market does drop drop back below 1500 We can look at testing this zone here in around 14 75 14 80 And we'd really need to be taken out the this low here the low it around kind of 14 59 15 60 in early October to then become more confident at the market actually You know is going to be heading lower and if you do take out the early October low We could really get it back down toward this zone here in around 14 53 14 30 and last you know I turn my attention to the oil market starting off with Brent crude So obviously after had a move short move to the upside in mid September in the wake of the Saudi drone attack attacks Followed by Saudi Arabia pledging and then filling on the place of getting back to production So we saw a major move in the downside in the oil market But since then we've been pushing higher While we hold above this trend line here and actually around back above the fifth any moving average this blue line here in a 60 spot 95 While we hold above that it's likely we could see further probably been made in the oil market And we could be like you're heading back up toward this red line here They fit the movie average which comes to play at 64 spots 79 a movie on that good to get this area here at 65 spots 79 It's only really if you have a kind of a slice of break back below this trend line We'll come to the play in around say 59 spot 50 because they would be there with it They would think oh wait, maybe the negative trend For the last number of months is actually kicking back in again And if that is the case we could be like you then retesting the early October lows in around 56 spots 71 I'll take a look at what's going on on WTI for about things up WTI as you can see a fairly similar move the rock has been pushing higher Basically since early October. It's also holding comfortably above its 50 moving average this blue line here in a 55 spot 42 And if you could press on higher from here We could be looking at retesting this zone here in around 58 dollars a barrel And then if you go beyond that we could get testing the kind of big psychological number of 60 bucks per barrel If in the other hand though the market does drop back below the 50 moving average We could be like you're trying this zone here in around 54 or down toward this back toward this trend line here in around 5260 and similar to my setup WTI on Brent It's only really if you have a size of break below this trend line Because then we think maybe kind of wider bearish trend is in play back in play But that is the case we can look at our getting the early October low in around In around 51 dollars per barrel Well, that's all for me this week Please tune in next week. Thank you very much