 gyda'r Ffree, ac mae'n gyntaf. Mae'n holl iddyn nhw'n gweithio'r panell ar gynnwys ar y dyfodol, a'r dylunio'r ddau, mae'n ddegwydiau ar gyfer y dyfodol. Felly, mae'n gweithio. Mae'n ddegwydau gyda'r panell ar y dyfodol. Ysgrifennid Ynno'r Frederick Agar, yng nghyrch ar gyfer y dyfodol. Ysgrifennid yma'r gweithio? A'r wird-degwyd, ymwyloedd y sefydliadol, ynchydgyrchu'r ysgrifennid y Brith. Fatima Haram Asil, cofisiwner for trade and industry at the Africa Union, Jean-Louis Ekra, president and chair of the Board of Directors at Africa Export-Import Bank and Bob Diamond, founder and CEO of Atlas Merchant Capital. So, an all-star cast assembled from throughout Africa and further afield as well. If I could just set out some of the context of this conversation, it might be useful. The Africa, the World Economic Forum has shown me that 12% of African exports go to African markets right now, and this is a way of introducing the idea of intra-Africa trade, and perhaps that's an area that we need to focus our conversation on today. African goods and services, they say, account for only 3% of value added in global trade. The WTO in 2014 said that this was the third straight year of below-average trade growth, and they didn't see that changing in 2015. So, all of those three statistics, just a way of illustrating the opportunity that exists for Africa to punch more strongly in the global trade agenda. So, how can Africa share in that global trade pie a little more aggressively? So, let's put that question to our panellists. I'll ask everybody to sort of set out their stalls just for a minute or so at the start of our conversation. And, Jonov, perhaps we'll start with you. Thank you, Anna. I think, in general, trade performance for all countries and regions is a combination of external and international domestic factors. You have to take into account access to foreign markets, the international global environment, as well as the behaviour of your trading partners. Then, when you come to your domestic situation, the kinds of trade policies that you put in place will define your performance in terms of exports and imports, the infrastructure that you need to support trade, and even the trade policy governance structure that you have in place that takes into account the interests of the business and private sector which you try to serve. Then, you have to look at your macroeconomic environment, which makes you more competitive. You need to address infrastructure challenges, including issues relating to trade finance. So, at the end of the day, is how a country, a region like Africa, manages the interaction of these external and domestic factors that would provide the frame as to how you benefit from the international trading system. So, that's the broad set-up. So, Mike, your thoughts? I think it's important to first look at this in the global context. If we look at the financial crisis of 2007, what happened immediately was a great reduction in trade, a huge increase in youth unemployment, a mistrust of institutions, whatever they might be, political or otherwise, and I think, you know, the development of protectionism, concern about immigration and people taking jobs, concerns about globalization. And all of this, I think we saw the Doha round, you know, not complete. And I think all of that has been very damaging potentially for the future. What's encouraging is we're now seeing an environment with regional agreements coming into place. The TPA has been given to the US government. We're seeing the TPP coming through, discussions in Japan, discussions in existence with Canada, the T-Tip. So, I think this is a real opportunity to move global trade forward and to understand that globalization can bring people out of poverty. So, I think for South Africa, to your point, it's very, very important to have much more intra-African trade. So, I think the tripartite trade agreement that's coming up, free trade agreement, is really important as a first step for Africa, you know, for the Cairo, to Cape Town, Corridor, to really be part of development for Africa as a whole, which then can engage with the EU, with others in a global basis. I think it's a first step that will really help Africa move forward. Yeah, no doubt we'll come back to that conversation about what Egypt is doing at the moment. Fatimae, your thoughts? Yes, I think that one of the things that African countries are really small to justify huge investment. For example, we all need roads, we need trade facilitation, we need the supply chain, we need to create, actually produce and diversification, and continental free trade area is a very, very important aspect whereby we can have big market to justify huge amount of investment on the continent. We can have any firm from anywhere in this world can come and set up in Africa and the market is there so that we can produce. So, I think that basically we need to address the challenges which is infrastructure, the trade finance, the productive capacities and so forth, and I think that we are very encouraged also with the free trade area of the three partite, which is 26 countries and is going to be launched in June, 10 of June 2015. So, I think that we can move forward. Jean-Louis? I would like to take it from a slightly different angle. When you look at total African trade, it has indeed grown tremendously over the past 20 to 50 years. To give you an order of idea, in 1993, that is when our African symbol was being created, total African trade was in the tune of $256 billion. As of last year, it was $1.4 trillion. It means that it has been growing. But the unfortunate thing is that it's still largely dominated by commodities. So, very limited value addition locally, very limited retention of value of this export. That's why total African trade remain at about 3% of global trade. That's one of the factors. The other factor is that Africa is a continent that still trades less with itself. Although we've made giant strides in it, because it was about 7% before, it's now between 12% and 13%, the steel is quite low compared to Asia, which is like 55%, or even Europe, which is about 70%. So, there are really effort to do in that area. Another fact, which I would like also to bring, is that there's been a diversification in the partnership now. China has now overcome America as the single largest trader with Africa. And you have a great increase in trade with countries like India. Those are new elements which we believe are positive, but we need to be a necessary value addition of African exports. Well, thank you, Anna. I think it starts, you touched on this a bit with, is there a problem? And you mentioned that 10% to 12% of trade in Africa is kind of intra-Africa. 80% of the exports of African companies are overseas. The financial crisis has exacerbated the situation. About 50%, a little over than 50% of the trade finance that you mentioned, came from European financial institutions prior to 2008. Because of Basel III, balkanisation, capital needed in the home market, today it's very close to zero. So, about 50% of trade finance that was coming from outside of Africa needs to be replaced. So, what can we do as institutions in our institution in Atlus Mara, we based our whole business proposition on breaking down the model of taking a deposit and buying a T-bill, getting funds to banks, sorry, getting funds to the small businesses in the SMEs. And so, we think strongly that intra-regional trade is what will pave the way for intra-Africa trade. And when I'm trying to think more positively, the progress that's being made now in the trade blocs, the four key trade blocs, in Francophone, West Africa, there's now one set of banking rules, there's a single currency. The East African community is probably the furthest ahead where the heads of state in Rwanda, in Uganda, and in Kenya are really paving the way around immigration, around transportation, around the potential for a single currency. So, we're beginning to see some real focus on fostering intra-regional trade, and I think that's what will pave the way, truly, for intra-Africa trade. Let's pick up there. We've had a number of really important topics sort of picked up in that first setting out of stalls, if you like. One of them is the global picture, the global context, the fact that we've had the WTO Doha round that that's stalled and that's on the negative side, on the positive side, other trade agreements are being signed in Africa. The importance of intra-African trade has come through clearly there. The importance of getting the financing right. The importance of addressing what is traded, John-Louis was talking about this, so maybe we'll pick up on some of those things. If we look at the subject of intra-Africa trade and just how much of an issue is it at the moment and what is driving a lack of intra-Africa trade at the moment. The Africa Union, you've been pushing for a long time for more intra-African trade. Just set out for us why it's been so difficult to push forward intra-Africa trade. I think, as I said, in order for us to understand why the intra-African trade is so low, we have to understand what are the challenges. And some of these challenges are really some of the trade facilitation. Now we signed the Bali agreement, of course, and we're implementing the Bali agreement, so we're, as part of the Bali package, the trade facilitation, and I'm happy to say that at least our member states are really working very hard to ensure that this is implemented. But actually, trade facilitation was also part of the decision of the head of state and government when they took that decision about boosting intra-African trade. It was felt that we really need to address this issue of trade facilitation because if we don't address it, it's going to be very difficult. Sometime we're talking about how do we connect Africa. And even if we connect Africa with trains or rail, if we have to stop at every border just to make sure that we spend so much time to get a visa, it's going to be basically useless. So it's very important that way we address this thing. I think the other thing is really the production factor is very important. And I think that it's important. Sometime you will see in country A, a surplus of, for example, food. And in country B, there is a shortage. So I think that it's very important that we also open our border, we communicate. And it will also help us too with the food security and so forth. It will help us with our diversification, the value chain approach. I mean, a country in Africa cannot come and say, okay, I want to really create, I don't know, produce a car. How do we ensure that some part is produced in country A, B and C? And therefore we go and we have a product car made in Africa. So I think it's very important that we look at these issues. Again, as I said, the infrastructures, most of our countries, the biggest one you can take Nigeria. But I think that most of our countries, our economies are very, very small to justify a huge number of investments. So I think that the infrastructure challenge is real. But how do we do this? So I think that it's very important that we look at the infrastructure. Oh, is there a problem? I think it's just your hair was interfering with the microphone, but that's fine. So please, thank you. So I think that it's very important that we look at this context about how do we address all these challenges so that we can go forward. The other thing that is very important also, our people are migrating. You see people are dying on the seas and so forth. Yes, the root causes are various. Some of them may be political challenges, but most of them are actually economic opportunities. So I think that if we have a continental free trade area, if we really can move within the continent of Africa, it will also promote movement of talent from one country to another. Countries such as Rwanda, the Ecoas region, which is the West African region, they have free movement of people. And I think that they have really positive experiences. So when you look at the advantages and disadvantages of having free movement of people within the region, I think that the advantages outweigh what's bad. So I think that it's very important that we look at these things on a more holistic way. And that's why we think that it's very important that we move forward. And we have actually a head of state and a head of state which are sharing the regional economy communities looking at this issue every summit, which is mean every six months, and seeing how are we progressing on all of this aspect. OK. Jean-Louis, this is interesting in the context of your point. How do you boost intra-Africa trade? You were saying earlier, we need to move up the value chain. Africa needs to move up the value chain and produce not just commodities. And it seems that in order to export to the neighbours, that might be necessary, but I guess which comes first. Well, I believe right now what should come first is to have manufactured products that you can sell to your neighbours. Because take a simple example. West Africa, you have about four countries that produce about 80% of the cocoa of the world. Clearly Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, which are the largest cocoa producers, cannot trade cocoa with each other. There won't be any need, except if this cocoa is turned into chocolate. Then you can sell to your neighbour. The other thing that seems not always well captured is the bulk of informal trade that is still happening among African countries. There is quite a lot that is happening. If you go to any border of countries, you will see vibrancy, people moving back and forth. Clearly they are moving because they are doing some trade. But that trade is still not captured. So one of these initiatives that we have in the bank is to create a platform, an electronic base on mobile telephony platform where payments could be made. That way you will be able to capture part of that informal trade that is still happening among African countries. Bob, I was reading the African Development Bank says that there is an unmet demand for bank-intermediated trade finance between $110 billion and $120 billion. There is clearly a need out there for more trade finance that is not being met. What are the considerations around that? What are the ways that we try and fix that? You were referring to how some in the international banking community have moved away from Africa. Particularly with the impact of Basel III and the financial crisis, how do we fill the void? Frankly, I don't think we can start by looking at the government. We have to start by looking at the industry, at the finance industry, at banks. I think small businesses in most African countries would say that access to reasonable priced lending or finance is the single biggest issue that they face, and I certainly agree with that. So it starts with how do banks get out of T-bills into lending? How do we get money to small businesses, to entrepreneurs, to cross-border businesses? How do we take a sector like agriculture, which can be one of the greatest economic sectors in sub-Saharan Africa, over 50% of the unused arable land in the world is right here in sub-Saharan Africa? And we need to have more specialized lending units. We need to have our banks capable of helping the agricultural sector hedge next year's crop price with more sophisticated financing and risk management tools. There are a whole host of things available in banking that are not particularly innovative, but for here in Africa, for the smaller banks, they are. So one of the things is to try and bring in more tools that have been used in sectors like agriculture to get the lending. If we can get that lending, I think that there are real challenges on the government side as well. And you think of some of the challenges they're facing in the East African community. It really comes down to more free flow of people and of services. And you think of harmonizing immigration and making it easier for people to cross-border and transport easier for goods to cross-border. But I do think it comes with a big burden on the financial services sector to get lending going, particularly to small businesses. And what changes in that? Why has that not happened already? You know, it's for some good reason, it's an interesting perspective. This is a bit of a generalization, so it doesn't apply to all. But too often banks in sub-Saharan Africa, when they take deposits, they can take that money and put them in a domestic Treasury bill that yields 13, 14 or 15 percent, and there's no interest or there's no currency risk. And it's pretty hard to find the incentive to lend to small businesses where there's credit risk and more work, quite frankly, when you can earn 1,100, 1,200, 1,300 basis points in lending. It's why we've begun to see in Nigeria and in other countries capital charges put on banks holding domestic T-bills. And I think it's the right public policy, as we have to use both the bankers' recognition of our responsibility to get lending to small businesses, as well as public policy in line to produce greater incentives to lend. Maybe it means some form of credit guarantee as well to reduce that spread between the T-bill level and the lending level. But I think, unsurprisingly, part of the burden is on the banks and part of the burden is on the governments. I mean, Michael, this seems like there's a big role for getting... There's a big part of this is getting Africa in more fully involved in the international capital markets then and allowing some of the things that Bob has talked about to happen. Absolutely. When you listen to the comments made by colleagues here on the panel, you see that some of these issues, in varying degrees, exactly the same issues in the European Union. So, for example, I think it's interesting to reflect that we've already seen some of the benefits. We were talking yesterday, someone's telling me, making the comparison, that with the sort of free movement that you have in one single market, a truck goes from Frankfurt to Nice in one day. In Africa, that would take eight to nine days because we have to get across some of the practical issues. Similarly, because the free movement of labour, I'm really encouraged to hear what you say about West Africa. Clearly, free movement of labour has been a massive benefit to the European Union and yet people are really politically disturbed by it at the moment because they feel that immigration is causing damage to their standard of living and their jobs. As you know, in the UK, we pretty much have an entirely fact-free debate about immigration. So somewhere in about this is, I think, trying to link and I'm coming to the capital markets point that bringing people together and understanding why free trade lifts people out of poverty and creates jobs and creates investment and that free movement of labour is not a threat if handled properly is something we need to share. Similarly, I think it's fantastic that Johannesburg here in South Africa does have a strong capital market. It links closely to London. London is part of the European Union. Hopefully, we'll remain so. I think those issues are exactly, Bob, the same problem in the European Union about getting lending to SMEs. For different reasons, because we're not getting the 30% returns on people, some of their negative. Actually, because of regulatory and capital and other requirements and risk issues and lack of confidence, we've got exactly the same issues. How do we get SMEs who really create jobs to get the financing they need to expand? And we haven't cracked that, even in terms of a single financial market. I mean, you referenced there some of the political tensions that are caused by opening borders and that's evidenced here in South Africa as well, isn't it? Most recently with levels of violence routine. Michael was referring there, going off to the case that needs to be made for the benefits of trade, the WTO, this is your bread and butter, selling the benefits of trade. Where do you see in Africa resistance to trade? Where are there still groups of people perhaps who don't see the benefits that you see? Well, I think the benefits are there. And I think all African countries are active in trade. And we know that over the past two or three decades, trade has been able to lift a lot of the population of the world out of poverty. For Africa, I think the challenge remains recognition of what needs to be done. If you listen to the discussion so far, we seem to be touching on bits and bits of sectorial policies. But trade policy is not about one sector. It's a microeconomic policies across sectors woven into one whole. So trade can't just sit on its own in a silo. It's got to influence every other bit of government policy. So that is why, for instance, for Africa, as we stand now, first, you need to be sure you integrate into the multilateral trading system. You are part of the global economy. If you look at our past, most of African exports were under preferential trade regimes. Those regimes are going. So there will be preference erosion. There will be competing with exports from other countries. In the EU, we now have the EPAs. Even for the US, where their goal has been extended, you cannot be sure of another extension. So the future for Africa is making sure that institutions like the WTO work. It's making sure that you create also the domestic environment. Trade today is no longer about your border measures. Trade has moved to behind the border measures. I will bring my capital into your country if I look at your investment regime. It's favorable. I will bring my capital into your country if intellectual property regime is the right framework. So bankruptcy. In some of our countries, people cannot even redeem contracts easily. So when you look at your overall domestic environment and reform it, targeted at specific sectors, you could get to what is now called exchanging domestic reform for factories. Then you cannot get the diversification you need. You cannot become more competitive. So concluding the Doha run, for instance, for Africa, is very key in providing a stable environment. Implementing the current trade facilitation agreement, which is now backed in capitals for ratification, is key. And you know that Africa is going to host the next ministerial conference in December. So how does Africa now project itself to the international community that it has come to accept those domestic reforms that will enable it to benefit from the international trading system? Can I take us on to talk about harmonising free trade agreements? And we've touched on this with some of the deals that are going to be coming through soon. And Fatima, you are mentioning the continental free trade area and there are things in the works. Things are happening. Things are moving in Africa. But maybe, Yonof, I could ask you. I mean, what is, from the WTO's perspective, what is the optimal size of a trade area these days? Because we're sitting here on this panel talking about free trade across Africa at a time when Europe and the US are busy negotiating, you know, halfway around the world on TTIP or TTP, big global trade deals. And then we bring things more local and we say in Africa, look, Egypt is signing deals with this part of Africa and that part of Africa. And it's held up as a good thing because it's bringing down borders. But where should the focus be right now? There seem to be lots of actors at lots of different levels. I think that is not a question for the WTO to answer. It is based on the priorities of the members. But from a conceptual point of view, any improvement or increase in trade whether between two countries or whether at the regional level or at the multilateral level is important. So if South Africa and Nigeria can take a bilateral trade agreement that improves trade between them, it's good for the world. It's good for the common good. If Africa can successfully implement a continental free trade area, it's good. And that is why in the WTO, we have recognition for all these regional trade agreements, although they need to meet certain minimum conditions to at least ensure that there is no trade diversion, there is no impairment of the trade rights of other countries. So the priority as to how you adopt an approach is dependent on the member. I think for Africa, most of our industries are not really competitive. So as we try to reform, the African market can serve like a testing ground where you now grow and then you can go out into the rest of the global markets. But I think the key is beginning to look at those domestic reforms. We are talking of labour, mobility and talent. I was at an event in Abidjan last week and somebody was saying it's very easy for an African diplomat with his diplomatic passport to get easy access into any African country. But it's very difficult for an African businessman. So you need to make everybody a diplomat? No, you can't. The member states, for instance, may consider giving business passports an African business passport. For instance, in a co-ass now, you could have your normal national private passport, but it's deemed to be an a co-ass passport. So it's respected by each a co-ass member state. So this is one region of Africa where you can travel freely? Exactly. So you can take that example and say, OK, for all Africa at the AU level, take a decision, all business people should have a business passport. So I don't need a visa to come into South Africa and say, business man, I can jump on the plane, go and do my deal and get out at the next minute. So these are things we need to begin to look at. We need to also, you know part of the challenges now is also standards. Standards are not just the ones that the governments are putting in place. Some of them are becoming private standards. So when you look at some of the big retail chains, they have their standards. So African countries also should begin to see how they can build centres of excellence across sectors, across production lines to begin to benefit or at least understand how these standards work and how they can perform in those markets. I mean, Fatima, it seems there's no shortage of ambition trying to set up the continental free trade area is a huge undertaking. Is it possible to deliver this by 2017? I think it's possible. The reason for it is that, yes, it is an ambitious continental free trade area and we're also looking for something ambitious now. We're not just looking for trading goods, we're looking for trading services, we're looking for later on procurement and so forth because, but it's possible because one is the head of state and government decision. That's the first one. So it's not an African union. I mean, all the African union decision are head of state decision. Two is there is, as I said, there is a high level trade committee which is composed of eight head of state chairing the regional economy communities that will come every six months, will review the progress, will advise on the next step forward. Three is we're launching the continental free trade area here in South Africa from 14 to 15 on the summit. So we're launching the negotiation of the continental free trade area. But all these things are built on what is existing already on the regional economy communities. As I said, the three parties are going to launch their free trade area 10 of June in Shamar Sheikh in Egypt. So I think this is very, very important. It's 26 countries that represent about 57% of GDP of Africa. So I think that it's very, very important. It's a very encouraging news. Mr Aga talked about the ECOWAS region, like the West African region, it's 15 countries. They have a common external tariff. They have free movement of people. They have an ECOWAS passport. Now they're talking about a common identity. I think that it's also very important for the EU to learn from best practices. How do we learn and make sure that we move forward? The East African communities have good trade facilitation. They also have the passport. So I think it's very important. So for us, we want to make sure that we build on best practices, not copying everything from the wreck, of course, but copying best practices. How do we ensure that we move and propagate? The other thing that is very important also, I think there is no free trade area today of a region that is 54 countries. The closest thing is the WTO. So that's why actually we're working very closely with the WTO to understand the challenges and also see how we can be advised. But if you look at the EU, the EU is 27 countries, but they didn't get up in one day and all the 27 countries were ready and then they went further. I think the EU is still on a steep learning curve. Right. So what I'm saying is I think that it's important to see, you know, what are the coalition of the champions that are ready, that they want to move and go and then later on the other can join. I think that's also an option and we should also look at for this option. And I want to give a very, very example, which is very crucial. The head of state and government in 2000, in Yamatsukuru in Ghana, they decided about a single aviation market for Africa. At that time, the market share for Africa was 60%. Now, because of non-implementation, today our market share declined to 20%. But why was that not implemented then? So there's an agreement between all of these responsible parties that there's going to be free movement in air travel, but then it didn't happen. Why does it not happen? I think there are a lot of, maybe that, you know, actually some of the debate that we have is we take a lot of decisions at the African Union level and maybe that by the time our head of state reached the airport, I mean, they forget most of them. So actually we're really, sorry about that. We're actually trying to think about do we need to do really, you know, one summit that is about decision and one summit about implementation. And implementation happened also at all the levels. I mean, from national to regional and also, you know, continental. So people need to be held to account. Yes, I think it's very important. And I know for the aviation market what I was saying is that now head of state, I mean 15 countries, they signed a will to say that we're moving. Now, when the rest of you are ready, you can join us. So I think this is also an example you can use for the CFT. I think I would like to add that in financial services, there are big successes which people are not talking about. You take UBA, EcoBank, BGFI, EquityBank, those banks are banking around, you know, they are banking cross-border. They are opening branches, opening subsidiaries in other countries and it works. So they are just leading the integration. You also see some big African corporate conglomerate that are also expanding in the continent. Dangoite is a name that comes all the time, but it's not the only one. There are several. You see from Morocco many companies going down in West Africa. So what do we learn from that? What is it about the banking sector or about businesses like Dangoite that mean that those businesses are able to go across border so much more easily than others? I think if you just unleash the business community, they will do it. Right now what is really slowing down in my view, the business community to do business across the continent are really authorities, government. The business people, they don't have any problem of borders. They will just go where they can make money. So we need just to unleash the area and people will go and do business around. So it seems that maybe Bob, there are particularly in the banking sector examples of where cross-border business is being done very successfully in Africa? Yes, there's absolutely some success stories, but I would also say there are more examples of banks in Sub-Saharan Africa in multiple countries that run them as silos, just a series of separate banks. And our ambition is very bold. It's to be one of the leading financial institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa. So as we acquire banks in different countries, the plan is to integrate them into a single brand over time and a single technology. And I think, Anna, that's the key technology. And if banking in Africa can apply the kind of technology, not mobile phone technology, which is critically important for banking the unbanked, for reaching people that can't reach branches, but for the small business community and use the example of Dan Godi. A bank has to understand how much exposure they have to Dan Godi's cement, not just in Nigeria, but in the 17 other countries he operates in as well. My partner Ashish Dakar has businesses in 19 countries. And one of his stories about being banked is he was banked in each country separately, rather than as an integrated group. There is technology available now, intelligent layer of technology that can help us understand how much credit exposure we have to clients in different countries, how much interest rate exposure we have, but most importantly, how much currency exposure we have because of the cross-border business, how much is in dollars, how much is in domestic. And most importantly, what is that doing to the risk profile of our clients and our customers, the businesses that are doing business, sometimes doing it in dollars, sometimes doing it in local currency. In the agricultural sector, we're going to have to help our customers hedge not just their interest rate exposure, their crop exposure, but also their currency exposure. So it gets quite complex. And one of the things we're beginning to see, and I think it's very positive, is that banks that are in multiple countries are beginning to integrate and operate more as one bank in sub-Saharan Africa rather than a series of separate retail and commercial banks. And I do think it's positive, I do think there's success, but I think we're at the very, very early stages and the truth is, it's hard work. Mike mentioned the situation in Europe which has nothing to do with higher interest rates. We need to have the incentives to create the work that's required to understand more about sectors like agriculture, but also the types of companies, the small businesses that are going to become our big businesses are going to be. But that's what truly gets at creating jobs and creating economic growth. So I think the, is we put effort into this, we're going to see the rewards in the financial services industry but across businesses in Africa as well. One of the things we haven't talked much about, Mike, is about infrastructure and the need for that. I don't just mean, there's the obvious infrastructure, there's power infrastructure, electricity being reliable, there's roads and rail, there's also telecoms infrastructure, all of that will certainly the latter one of those close to your heart. I mean, absolutely, and I think infrastructure, it is brought in senses, a huge challenge for Africa and important as you were saying, Fatima. And I think that telecommunications technology is absolutely critical to doing the things that Bob's talking about. And if you look at the need for corporates and others and individuals to have access now to superfast broadband and fibre optics and resilient secure systems to bank across a region or across a country, this is something that really, how you have to create the environment. And as was being said earlier, and I think by Fatima, it's interesting that, where government and business have the same problem, strategy relatively speaking is easy, execution is difficult. More companies fail on execution than strategy. But if then you can free up the environment for business to operate, as you said, they will go and do it if that environment is there because then you will get the investment coming across a bigger marketplace to accelerate the need to use different technologies to have the communications you need that are critical to many things, trade, banking, where you want to do it. They're critical actually to education, which is a huge issue. They're critical to medicine, to healthcare, just about everything is where it can be made more efficient and done more effectively. And here, of course, because it's a huge size of this continent, there are particular challenges as to how you do that and how fast you can do that in addition to the road system, the aviation and so on and so forth. Fatima is funding the infrastructure development. What are your thoughts on that? Because obviously the Chinese have been very instrumental of late, no accident that the Chinese broadcasters are here running a panel discussion on funding for infrastructure projects. They've been very instrumental on that, but now the Chinese economy is slowing a bit. Does that show up as one of the concerns of the African Union that great, we need all this infrastructure, but where's the funding going to come from? Who's going to have the appetite to invest in these projects? Well, the African Union is not looking particularly for the Chinese to come and help them with infrastructure. I think the African Union is trying to look at all the partnership that we have and really understand what is strategic for us, what is a win-win partnership that we should have. Some of the projects, these are bankable projects. How do we ensure that we have the public-private to come and invest? I think that is very important. I think that Africa understands that no country in the world come and industrialize or transform their infrastructure because a country came in and helped them. So I think that this is a realization that we are very well aware of. We're looking at this banking sector to understand how do we collaborate also with the banking to ensure that we're moving forward and so forth. I think this is very important. We're going to have a big event this year about especially SMEs and women because the issue of credit, the issue of collateral, some women don't have land, all these things, how do we move with these things? And yes, as a Chinese, we did sign a memorandum of agreement with the Chinese about especially railway and highway and so forth, but really we wanted to do it our way. And this is really not something that the Chinese are coming to finance us. We're really looking for banking with some type of, how do we learn best practices? And we don't want to copy also the model of Chinese. We want to look at the model of the China, how China came to that point and how order came and come up with our own model that is feasible to our own situation. We're talking about high-speed train, for example. Why we're saying high-speed train? Because we're saying that when Europe had their train, we know the technology is not where it is today. China, when they have it, it was not where it is today. So how do we ensure that we move forward and we learn, again, best practices from others? So for us, I think that it's very, very clear that we're not looking for China to come in and transform our continent on infrastructure-wise. It's very important that we look at all the partnership. What is strategic, how do we also ensure that we negotiate good contracts that can take also care of this on the mining sector? For example, we're on dough with natural resources. How do we ensure and move? So I think that these are some of the things that we're really looking for and ensuring that we really involve the private sector is very key. Involving the private sector on the continental free trade area, we have to create an Africa business council whereby we hear the private sector voice to ensure that, you know, how do we move forward and work together, Bob? The China issue, or the China example you used, is very appropriate in banking as well. The Chinese banks that are active day-to-day in Africa are very helpful, and they're doing exactly what I would expect them to do, and I think anyone would advise them to do, is they expand outside of their country. They follow their customers and clients. They don't get involved in areas that they don't know. The result of that is that they're financing projects and they're financing the Chinese companies that they're familiar with. They're not really developing SME lending. So we can't count on that, and that's appropriate. That's as it should be. So I think it puts more pressure on the African banks to develop lending to African companies. One of the great things, and there's a wonderful saying coined by an economist a long time ago, the competitive advantage of being behind. And one of the competitive advantages today is there's very little in terms of tools that we need for SME lending that don't exist in banking. They're just incredibly innovative here, in this market, but they do exist, and I think this is truly an example where we can take the best of international and the best of local and create something. And no banking system has ever had to face the challenge of 46 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. That is a big challenge, but the tools are there to accomplish it. We haven't talked so much about the West and the West's role in involving Africa more in global trade. Jonov, is there something here about the way that the West and that covers many places, but the way that the West deals with Africa and making sure that free trade agreements are as free as they could be? Where would you like to see emphasis placed? Well, I think we need to recognize where we are coming from. I mean, we all know most of African economies are built on colonial structures, which did not quite affect, were not quite affected at the time of our independence. So if you look at the preference arrangements that were put in place, they were not really the type that you would say would grow the domestic economy. They were the type that would facilitate or not assure that the trade that was there before was not disrupted. So I think many of our countries, when even the GATT regime was established, were not at the table. We only joined the GATT at independence. But the situation now is Africa has become a big voice in the World Trade Organization. So we should now begin to strategically look at those areas in the agreements that give us the best, what you call, special and differential treatment provisions that take into account our specific economic circumstances. And I think this is where the challenge is. Across Africa, you have different kinds of economies at different levels of development with different challenges. Some of them, like the LGCs in Africa, they're not required to make any obligations. So how do they relate when they belong to maybe a regional economy community with some developing countries like you have in Sadeg? And then they are being required to make what you call it, commitments. So I think it's not a matter of looking up to the West or to the developed countries. We have come a long way now. If you look at what the EU is doing, the EU is signing bilateral or RTAs with many of the Latin America or Asian countries. This automatically means the competitiveness that African countries had. Whether you are talking of bananas, the sugar regime, it's gone. So where do you go? The idea then should be for us to begin to look at what could make us more competitive. And what makes us more competitive goes back to how we do our domestic trade policy reforms, which are the hierarchy of issues we are talking about here. How do we harness our domestic situation at the continental level? I think again, this is where I differ with a lot of what is going on in the EU. We still continue to think of the old classical model where you think that these things will fall in place. You look at convergence criteria and convergence criteria that nobody knew there would be an Ebola problem that would disrupt the economies of some of the West African countries. Nobody knew that there was going to be a decline in oil prices or commodity prices in general. So if you are looking at GDP, debt ratio and deficit, you will never converge. So you need, African countries need to recognize that they have to build. It's good you cannot say me and poor can go and open an account with dangote, joint account with dangote. But you can learn from the European Union by opening that common currency framework and then saying you can participate in this framework subject to these conditions. Then each member can join at the time it feels it's ready. But when you go through the classical route, if you look at West Africa, I think we've been struggling to integrate the humor and the echo for how many years now. It's not working. And even if we go back in Africa's trade history and start looking at the elements of the Lagos plan of action, the Abuja Treaty establishing the African economy, they are the same things that we are talking about today. So you can't just wait forever for these economies to converge and to look similar? We need to say everybody is different. Everybody, there's no one size fits all, there's no silver bullet. But there could be common good. So what is the common good? And then everybody latches onto that common good as it assesses its abilities and capacity to participate. Just in concluding then with the panel, I wonder if everybody could think of one final message that they really would like people who are watching, who are listening to this to take away with them. I mean, Bob, maybe we'll start with you listening to what you've said already. It seems that incentivising the banking sector to go out and lend money to small and medium-sized businesses. And I can think of other parts of the world where we've had these conversations recently as well. But in this case, Africa, that seems to be for you a big focus. Yeah, very much. I think it's a key, and I come back to the point I made earlier, that intra-regional trade will pave the way for intra-Africa trade. I think we should be cognizant that some of the most important developments are happening within the East African community, within the Sada community, within ECOWAS, within Francophone West Africa. I also think there's a lot of work being done. I think Donald Kabaruki at the African Development Bank has been very, very supportive of fostering lending to small businesses, Afroxym as well. So I think this is truly a partnership between the private sector and the development finance institutions and the government. I think there's a lot for everyone to do here. But the goal, everyone should say, is what's good for creating jobs and what's good for curting economic growth. Jean-Louis. Yes. The key word that I would like us to retain here is transformation. We need really to transform African economies. We can't continue with this model of exporting raw commodities. It's unsustainable. So to transform, the environment is now conducive for that. However, those economic communities that have been set up, we should make them work. It's not for government to go and sign something and re-nage on it when they come back home. They should be accountable for that. Fatima. I think Africa will surprise the world. We're going to have our continental free trade area, which is ambitious, good services people. I think it's very important. This upcoming summit will discuss, actually, at the closed session with the head of state and government, the movement of people, because I think that this migration issue is very, very important. The structural transformation of Africa is imperative. We need to create jobs in Africa, as he said. The commodity export is not good for us because our populations are growing and we need to make sure that we create jobs for our people. Lastly, I think that education is very, very important for our people because this continent has a lot of youth. I think that if we don't treat them, they will be a threat to us and also to the world. But if we treat them, I think that they will truly develop this continent. So I think that this is what we're going to be working on and the deadline of 2017 will be respected. Thank you. No, I think that Africa is at a crossroads. I think it's an enormous content with enormous resources, great demographics, big challenges. At a practical level, I would say that all the things you're talking about, free movement and labour, currency union, regulatory convergence, learn from the good things the European Union did and learn from their mistakes in these areas. Remember that success leads to further problems on immigration as you complete that market. That would be my suggestion. Well, I think Anna, I have to... See, Fatima is confident 2017 she'll get the continental free trade area. You're not so... I have to go back to my initial proposition. Africa's future has to respond to the current global economic environment. So we need to begin to think of going into processes that help us. And I'm not doing a commercial for the WTO, but I would want to believe that the multilateral trading system provides the best environment for small economies like in Africa or the national governments to get good trade deals rather than the current approach to have some bilateral and regional trade agreements with developed countries. Secondly, based on these prevailing international environment, you need to begin to strategically reform, not reform for its sake, reforms that give priority to those... What do you call it? The drivers of growth. Reforms that are sequenced, reforms that are properly timed and monitored to ensure that both national governments and the continent as a region benefits from its participation in international trade instances. OK. Thank you all very much for some fascinating ideas there to take away with us. So the need, small economies in particular, the need to band together to get better trade deals, the importance of learning from other unions around the world such as the EU, the good and the bad that have been done there, the importance of maybe the free trade area, the continental free trade area and the importance of migration in there for both Africa and also from what you said, Fatima for Europe too. The importance of diversifying the African economy away from commodities and the importance of lending to business, all of those themes coming out very strongly in the conversation. So thank you all very much for participating today here at the World Economic Forum for Africa. Thank you. Thank you.