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Really it was only the first day of the week on Monday, had a huge update and then the rest of the week was maybe a little bit slower but overall we did grind our way up, but Monday was the big day. We had spy up almost 1.5% and also QQQ up almost 2% just on that one day so crazy start to the week and hopefully this week we also have some more volatility or more range in the market but the way seasonality is looking it's not as good as last week so my expectations are lower this week on the market. But before we get into all that let's go ahead and get into the economic calendar real quick. We are going into Tuesday as our first trading day of the week. You can see January 16th we have the Empire State Manufacturing Survey and also a Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaking. I would maybe pay attention to the Empire State Survey, it just depends on how extreme the reading is. I've seen it move the market once or twice but overall this does leave the market relatively muted. And you can see Wednesday we do have retail sales, this is going to be the big one of the week along with consumer sentiment on Friday but otherwise US retail sales is really the only big one this week and then there's just a bunch of Fed speakers you can see we have, you can see we have Michael Barr, we have Michelle Bowman and also have John Williams speaking all that day as well. So really just retail sales and some Fed speakers on Wednesday and then Thursday we do have some more Fed speakers our usual initial job was claims also the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey this can move the market it just depends and another Fed speaker which is going to be Raphael Bostic. So he speaks twice actually once at 7.30 and once at noon. And then Friday our two bigger pieces of data is going to be consumer sentiment and also existing home sales. These have the potential to move the market at 10 30 minutes after the bell and more Fed speakers as well. So booked with lots of Fed speakers this week but overall the highlight of the week is going to be retail sales. It's going to be on Wednesday and then also our second biggest probably going to be consumer sentiment and existing home sales. So pay attention Wednesday and Friday especially and then the rest of the week is just booked with Fed speakers basically every single day of the week. All right not to seasonality so this week I actually just have a screenshot because I just tried to go to this website that I usually use and their website is tweaking out so we're just going to look at the screenshot. This is actually from the 12th to the 19th. So this is actually four days old but it does stretch out into the end of our trading week which is on the 19th. So you can see this is the 20 year data set. I was going to show you the 10 the 15 and the 20 year because they all kind of look a little bit different just due to the 10 year difference between the 10 and the 20 year data set but this is good enough for now. You can see that we actually do average a dip. So after Friday's trading week we do start to average that negative return towards the OPEX day which is on the 19th. But our trading week this week starts on the 16th which is tomorrow. So we're actually kind of looking at probably like in the middle of this but either way it's just overall just telling us that this could see some weakness in the market but it just depends. Like I said the 10 and 15 year data sets were a little bit different. They were showing a little bit more consolidation or chop. No big pullback like the 20 year data set. But one thing these 10, 15 and 20s all do have in common is that towards the end of January we do get a pretty big run up into February into the midpoint of the month. And then we see a really big pullback. They all look basically the same on that front. But for this week they kind of do differ. Like I said 10 and 15 is kind of consolidating and then the 20 year is just kind of a straight tread down. So we could see a little bit of downside in the market this week just based on seasonality but that's worst case scenario for downside. Best case scenario I could see is just consolidation or chop. And then obviously if the market goes up that would be good as well. And now we'll go ahead and get into the setup. So our first one here we're looking at XLE. This is a drop based rally demand zone. So it creates the big drop. It creates a base and then you have a big rally to the upside. And then you focus on the in balance area that led to the rally. So this is the in balance area that led to the rally. You can see it actually pulled into it had a nice pop into Friday. And it looks like it sold back off just a little bit. But XLE did have a pretty good gap up here. Yeah it was up almost 1.5. So once it tapped this demand zone it was able to get that upside. So I'm looking for a potential reversal off this area. Maybe a continuation. Obviously one thing you do have going against you. You do have the one day 9-21 EMAs kind of going against you here. We are trending below them as you can see. This is your 9 and your 21 pulling up into that. And that's probably why we saw resistance on Friday because of this one day EMA combo here. And there also could be big resistance at the one day 200 EMA. Which is going to be right here. These dots this is the one day 200 EMA. And then you also have your 50 right here which is your more medium term. And those kind of meet in the same spot. So that could be resistance at about you know 84, 85 or so. So we will need to watch that. If it can get over these short term moving averages the one day 9 and 21. I would probably buy time on XLE. Just because you do have the moving averages and kind of the trend going against you. It's been kind of struggling. Each pop it gets it does get smacked back down. So if you want to buy time go with you know maybe March minimum for calls. That's probably the best way to go about it. That's how I personally would go about it. Maybe February at minimum. It's going to be the 316 contracts for February monthlies. And that gives you about 30 days. So just got to buy time. If you feel like you want to get in at a spot but you still feel skeptical just buy time to deal with your thesis and let it go in your favor. Or at least give it a chance to you know work through the BS before you know going to the upside. So that's for XLE looking at calls. Nice little drop based reality demand zone. It's pretty simple risk off if it starts breaking under the demand zone low. Also there's this kind of this trend line support. You got test one, test two, test three, test four, test five. So you got five lines of support here. Five tests or balances off support. So if it breaks under that trend line support there'll probably be a pretty big breakdown. So that probably invalidate your thesis. But overall there's a pretty big distance between right here the price and this trend line supports. You got to be careful with that. Maybe just go with the demand zone low to be safe. Just depends on how far you buy out on the options contracts. And next we're going into DG which is Dollar General. This week we're kind of looking at more defensive longs I guess. Energy can move even if the stock marketer that you know the spy or QQQ doesn't go up. XLE or energy the sector can go up. Regardless kind of as a defensive name. And as well as Dollar General and Walmart they can go up as well despite you know market week. So I guess we're looking at these names just due to seasonality kind of being a little bit on the weaker side this week. So I like Dollar General here you can see we got a test one. You got a test two. This is actually a test three right here. We also have this really big gap that hasn't been filled yet. You can see it pretty much had resistance here and also had a big rejection right here directly off the gap resistance. But overall this probably will get filled back up at least 80% of gaps do eventually get filled. And then they kind of see resistance once it closes all the way. Obviously you don't want to shoot for the whole gap in one week. It's not going to happen unless like they announced they're getting bought out or something. Some crazy news because that's a pretty big move if it filled this whole gap in a week. I mean this is almost a 12% gap. So you want to keep your expectations low. This could feel over time but by time to deal with your thesis. Another positive it has we are finally over the one day nine, the 21 and the 50 here. So you got this whole 9, 21, 50 cluster right here kind of holding as a pretty solid base. This kind of tells me buyers keep showing up every time it drops into this general area. And people like that it's holding higher lows or trying to make some type of base because you have a higher low here. Higher high, higher low, short-term balance now trying to make a base or keep the higher low as well right here. So as long as it's you know holding this trend line it is making higher lows to keep the structure going. You will need to put in a higher high eventually but you're kind of looking at this area as a discount now that we are pulled into the MAs and also pulled into the trend line. And then you also have to think about the gap not being filled yet. Eventually people are probably going to try to pile in once it gets back up to the gap. You can see they attempted to do it right here on this bar and then pretty much just a big liquidity hunt because they took it down the very next day down almost 7% but that dropped into the MAs and now we're starting to see that solid base get made. So DG, I'm looking at calls by time because you're going to want to deal with this gap obviously and it's not just going to fill in a week or two weeks. I will keep your expectations low just because I mean these things take time. Not just going to fill right away but Dollar General looking at calls. I would consider this a more defensive type long because if the market doesn't go up this week like the indexes, Dollar General and Walmart can still move up or keep relative strength despite index weakness. So keep your eye on it, looks pretty good. Risk off is very straightforward. If it breaks under trend lines and breaks under your MAs as well, your 921 and 50 combo if it starts breaking under that, I would call it maybe 130 flat. If it breaks under 130 flat, probably start looking at something else or be a little bit more on the defensive side. And next we're going into WMT which is kind of like Dollar General but this is actually inside of the gap. So this setup is actually a little bit more straightforward but we need to determine some type of price target. Obviously you don't want to shoot through the whole gap within a week. I mean eventually this could fill up but you'll probably want to start going with whole numbers like 164. Maybe you could watch 165 flat as well as a potential price target because we are in the middle of a gap and there's really no like support or resistance here. There's a pretty nice 165, 85 level right here. Eventually that could probably hit as well. I would probably think of that as the overall price target just because I mean that's pretty close to the whole gap being filled and that probably wouldn't be too greedy to go for that. If you start aiming for the whole gap plus this little peak right here, that's probably when things start to get a little bit more on the greedy side. So the peak is basically at 170 flat but I would definitely just look for this as a maximum, the 165, 85. Then you obviously have it holding this little upturn here as well. You got to test one, only test two. Eventually it'll probably come back down for a test three whether that's all the way down here, whether it's right here. I have no idea but eventually this trend line probably will get tested but I really like how this is starting to base out or flag. You got a big bullish structure right here. Two days of consolidation, two days of Wix, two days of flagging basically. You also have a flag on the four hour kind of right here as well. Maybe even day trade because I feel like one day you probably will get a big impulse move. Just one really big push up and one type of one day bar. Well I don't know what day it will be but you probably will get one of those since we are in the middle of the gap because that's people chasing and knowing that the rest of the gap is going to fill and that kind of invites buyers and it invites FOMO. So look out for that and then obviously in validation it starts going back under 160 or 159, 45. You could probably use the one day moving averages as well. You got your 9, 21, 50 all right here. If it starts breaking under that you can start looking at something else. And then that 159, 45 is also the start of this gap point and also a resistance point right here and also the breakout point of this bar. So definitely watch this 159, 45 if it gets back down there. Could be a pretty good level to watch as support as well. So if it pulls into that for some reason you could look for a potential balance of that area as well. But definitely just watch this whole area because we are now inside the middle of the gap. So we could see a nice big impulse move to start trying to fill the rest. Whether it gets up to 165, 85 or not I have no clue but definitely keep in watch in this big gap area. And next we're going into Amazon. This is our last individual ticker for the week and this is actually going to be a short setup. Just in case the market does see that weakness and we start seeing large caps kind of pulling back just due to the seasonality that we looked at. Maybe just re-balancing into OPEX. Maybe just some profit-taking markets at local resistance on both indexes so I wouldn't be surprised. This is a setup just in case we do get that weakness in the market. You do want a backup plan if these longs for some reason aren't working and you need some hedge or exposure or something to the downside. This Amazon resistance looks pretty good to start heading down. One thing you will want to be careful of we do have the MACD starting to go positive. You just got the cross on Friday to the upside so you want to be careful of that. And then you're also trending over your 1-day 9 and 21 EMA combo which is right here. You got your 9 and your 21 right under it. Ideal price targets or just a general take profit area or just completely get out area. If it starts tapping the 1-day 9 and 21 EMA this will change after each 1-day close your 9 and your 21. So just pay attention to how it updates and that will be your price target because if it taps the 1-day 9 EMA it can act as the higher low and bounce upward. So just keep it simple. Use your 1-day EMAs that will give you some type of price target if you're trending over it to the downside. So if you're trading for a meme regression back down to the EMAs it's probably the smartest way to go about shorts if you're going over or if you're trending over your 1-day 9 and 21 EMA that meme regression back down is your best price target. Just to be safe because let's say you did it up here you're trying to short at this little was that 147s. Look how I just pulled into the 1-day 9 and 21 EMA combo also did was consolidate for a couple days almost a week and it ended up breaking out. So you got to be careful trying to short while it's above the 1-day 9 and 21 EMA combo because these 1-day 9 and 21 EMA combos that act as really good support as you can see act as higher lows and general structure for the market. So 1-day EMAs at least your 9 and 21s definitely use that as a price target if you're shorting above that. But this 155.63 is a pretty big resistance. It's a rejection point from this bar right here and it took about four or five days to see follow through from that level right here in this little structure. And this is all by imbalance. I mean you really don't have any base or really anything. This is just a straight vertical move to the upside. So eventually this will probably try to fill back up to the downside but like I said just use your 1-day EMAs as price targets. Keep it simple because short term they can bounce pretty hard off these 1-day EMAs and you actually see that on spy next and we'll go into that right now. So Amazon we're looking at puts just you know as a backup plan in case the market gets weak it might need a little bit more confirmation like seeing some type of 1-day structure break to the downside that probably be like Friday's low or something if it can break under Friday's low that will be a pretty good flush down to the EMAs. So use that Friday low actually at 154 flat and keep it simple. All right next we're going into the spy. So last week we were looking at this little channel on the one hour actually. So we needed to see a breakout of this overall the price target on the short term was up to this upper channel line and we did get that the first day. So even if you bought Monday morning right at open you'd have a nice trade up to little trend line resistance right here and an even better trade once it broke out of the channel once it broke out of the channel is basically just straight up from there. So overall last week we were looking for a bounce in the market seasonality was telling us it was due. One thing I didn't really have on Friday though what we're looking at is some type of reversal bar right. This is Friday's close. We didn't really get that big push up until Monday but that first day Monday I mean it was huge very bullish. So you really didn't have any other signal that a big reversal was coming until we broke out of that little channel we looked at. We did have the one day demand holding so it was a rally based rally zone. This is your base. This was holding into Friday it was Friday's close so overall structures were holding good but you did have these two kind of ugly one day bars so you really didn't have a big kind of projection or you know push up candle showing you that some type of reversal was coming just yet. You kind of just had to assume just because structure was holding and we had you know the channel kind of bottoming out that you were able to see some type of push up and as well as seasonality so we did get that. Max upside I was looking for was probably 472 which is this little supply candle right here and we exceeded that and then overall you just kind of used 477.55 which is that 52 week high needed to use that as the overall PT and you see exactly why I pulled up into 477.55 two big kind of rejection candles well one big rejection candle we'll try to and here's what I mean about using the one day nine and 21 EMA combo like we were looking at on Amazon if you shorted that 477.55 you wanted to be taking profit down here because look at this huge wick off of it and we just ended up pushing up even more and as well as kind of pulled into it right here on Tuesday continued off of it as well so you want to be using these one day movie averages as price targets if you're going to short above it obviously if you pulled into it right here we only had one day of a wick kind of pushing off of it and then multiple days pushing down into the 21 what you can do you can take profit on the puts once it gets down to it and then wait to re-enter once it breaks under your nine and then you trade under the nine down to the 21 and that's one way to go about it if you want to be safe of course obviously you could just you know short up here then try to hold through it all but if you want to be really careful and you're more of a short-term trader you take profit once it gets to the nine and then you wait for it to break under the nine close under the nine and then your next PT is going to be the 21 and that's kind of how you short while it's still above the moving averages or while it's still kind of in the general area this week on spy is kind of similar to the amazon setup they're both at local resistance points the only thing is spy doesn't have a positive macd crossover amazon does from friday so momentum is still technically negative on this indicator but you still have your one-day moving averages holding and a whole way more merit over the one-day ma's than any macd or really any oscillator so obviously i can't really project any higher on the spot until we start seeing a break and close over 477.55 we need to see a one-day close over that level to project higher if it closes over that means bulls were able to close in a strong position above the 52 eight kite resistance point so we need to see some type of close over that and if it does do that that takes you up into the all-time high at 479.98 currently you just call it 480 flat and then obviously needs to break over 480 flat and close over 480 flat to go any higher than that so we are at a stall-out point here definitely doesn't look as good as last week so i don't feel great about you know dip buys really at this area at the moment maybe if it pulls back into the ma's you can look for dip buys around there just keep writing the one-day nine and 21 EMA combo but last week we had a huge discount the first day of market open on monday it proved that the market was discounted because people wanted in and then we had that huge impulse candle and then we also had a you know kind of back testing the 21 EMAs right here as well so we had a way better discount last week much more structure down here as well we're kind of just in higher lows and also at a stall-out point at the same time so not as good of a setup this week obviously you know naturally i kind of do expect you could see a little bit of resistance here because we have two confirmed closes under 477.55 but at the same time we are still trending over your one-day nine and 21 EMA combo so you got to be careful so if it does decide to pull in max would be looking for is your nine EMA first if it starts closing under the nine then you shoot for the 21 next if it you know starts breaking under the 21 that just takes you into the same 470s lower 468s demand and you could be looking for dip buys down there the 470 to 467.40s which is the demand zone low this is always the best area to buy the dip and i mentioned this a couple weeks ago as well i wasn't looking to buy up here i was looking for it to pull into 470s or hopefully pull into 470s and be able to buy down there and we finally got that so hopefully we can see that again obviously i am willing to buy the dip at the one-day nine and 21 EMAs like i said as well but otherwise need to see some type of breakout 478s if we can break over 478s that takes you up on 2480s so you got about two points from 478 to 480 flat which is all-time highs so that's pretty much it level of focus 477.55 keep it simple your one-day nine and 21 EMA combos overall best buy the dip zone is going to be at the 470s to lower 468s or you know 467.50 or so and to touch on some more S&P or SPY we're going to go over the S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average indicator and it's only available in one day and one week and one month time frames so this is showing how many S&P stocks are above their 50-day moving average otherwise known as some type of breadth indicator breadth is basically just measuring strength or weakness in the market when breadth is positive you have it trending higher moving with the market as well when breadth is shit trending lower likewise trending under your MAs going lower lower highs lower lows same thing as you would see with some type of stock you want to see some type of trend in breadth same thing with the S&P 500 or the SPY QQQ NASDAQ anything you're looking at so that's all it is breadth is just measuring strength or weakness and what we were looking at two weeks ago was these local tops so you had multi tops you had a top here a top here and a top here in breadth and that's why we're looking for some type of pullback right there I think a couple weeks ago when we did get that pullback and it aligned perfectly short term with the breadth indicator but now we kind of have breadth diverging right you got stocks above their 50 day moving average going lower while you have the SPY pushing up higher so we have a divergence so this could mean that's just the top weighted index names like Microsoft, Apple you know all those big names pushing higher while you have the lower bottom half kind of pushing lower because you have most S&P stocks heading back under their 50 day moving average so you do have a divergence from breadth and the actual index so one of them is lying and personally this breadth indicator can be a leader in terms of where the market is heading so if breadth is trending lower while the market is kind of getting to a stall out point that could be pointing to some type of short term pullback I mean I don't have a crystal ball and I can't really tell you exactly what's going to happen but that is one way to look at it another thing we do have is this indicator now under the 1 day 9 and 21 EMA combo I think last week I said we wanted to see breadth under this before you know expecting any more downside in the market and then we are now under these 1 day moving averages as well the MACD continues to stay negative go lower so once this MACD went negative this is kind of when breadth stalled out as well as reach those tipping points this whole area pretty much a local top for breadth as well as a potential local top for the market and that's why we saw that a couple weeks ago right here so now we do have that divergence and we have to think maybe this could bring the market down because we have overall stocks about their 50 day moving average going lower as well as spy kind of hitting that local resistance so there is a divergence and you kind of have to figure out which one is the leading is it going to be the top weighted index names like Apple, Microsoft, all those big names taking us higher or is it going to be the whole broad market telling the truth here that it is going lower or seeing some type of resistance and a lot of times I like to believe the broad market because when everything moves in tandem things are going good but everything goes lower in tandem things go to shit and there's only so long to where the top weighted names are going to carry the whole market on their shoulders so that's where we're at with breadth closing under your one day nine and 21 e-mail combos you got three days of closing under the MAs and a total divergence from the spy you got spy going up S&P stocks about their 50 day going lower so got that divergence definitely pay attention to it and consider it a potential warning signal on the short term and last but not least we're going into the QQQ so last week we were focused on this little 394 14 back test area which is this resistance point I'll pull this up with the four hour timeframe with extended hours on and you can see this 394 it's back tested right here Friday morning also back tested Monday morning basically and we did get that push up so a really nice back test and I did mention this looked better in terms of discount area or value compared to the spy so spy was not as pulled back it didn't have as big of a red week NASDAQ looked a little bit more oversold etc I think a lot of people saw that because first thing Monday we had a plus 2% day actually more than that plus 2.07% so over 2% day on Monday and then we had some more follow through the rest of the week but Monday was the big day and I actually alerted my QQQ calls for a profit taking point on the Xtrades app go to app.xtrades.net we had some QQQ calls I think at the what was it? 396's or so from Friday and then sold on Monday it definitely sold a little bit early because I made about $200 a piece they ran almost $500 a piece big day for the QQQ and those were February expiration so even those moved big and they had 30 plus days to expiration usually those move a little bit slower but not these contracts they burst it up because of this big green day on Monday so now that we've already balanced off the back test area we've already left your value area your oversold conditions we're already out of that in one week arguably we were out of it in one day we also filled up all this selling balance and we also had a gap right here we were looking at filled that up already and now we're back at local resistance also right at the previous all-time high at 408.71 so we're just briefly above that so it looks pretty similar to SPY SPY is also at a local top sort of obviously it actually touched the local top QQQ hasn't touched this 412.92 yet but you know it's pretty close and that's probably why we started to see that resistance because we got up so fast in three days but it's overall very similar I mean they both almost look the same in terms of how it ran this week going I'm sorry how it ran last week they both look very similar big green days on Monday kind of consolidation light green on Tuesday continuation Wednesday and two days of consolidation on Thursday and Friday so they both look the same on that front and they're also both very close to resistance so you kind of got to look at them the same way be cautious about this level I definitely wouldn't just buy calls directly at this level and also be wary of potential resistance back down to the one-day 9 to 21 EMA combo you can see QQQ pulled into the one-day MAs right here big week off the one-day 9 pushed back up and overall still holding higher lows trying to and then overall obviously you know you know my discount area is going to be you know back at the 396s or so or something around that if I could pull into that I'd definitely be willing to buy the dip because it's a big buy in Bailance area from previous so if I can get back down there great but right now I'm guessing it's not going to get down there this week that'd be a big retrace back down in you know three four days just not seeing it this week so I don't really see anything I like too much only if it pulls into your one-day 9 to 21 EMA combo if it pulls back into there I'd probably be looking to you know buy the dip rip it back up and then you know max upside I could see is just a 41292 very conservative this week because I mean that's all I can go off is this local top right here that's going to be about three points from where we're at now so definitely not a big move at all but if we break over that 41292 you could try to trade the impulse move break out higher but you got to wait for that to come or wait for some type of dip into the one-day MAs and you know you can buy the dip there nothing really special for seasonality nothing special for the indexes I definitely feel like some of these individual names look a little bit better especially exily definitely more at a discount at that drop base really demand zone yeah Walmart inside a big gap that could fill Amazon at local resistance potential resistance could see some puts there definitely like these a little bit better the individuals but you know spy and QQQ could see you know maybe a little bit of downside maybe you could scalp some puts but just depends and then for longs like I said you definitely want to wait for the indexes to pull into the one-day MAs or you know some type of dip before buying because we're so close to local tops so kind of boring for the indexes a little bit more better setups on the individuals but I'm gonna go ahead and get this chopped up sent out all that good stuff hope you guys enjoyed this video make sure you like comment and subscribe to our extra youtube channel I love you guys and I'm out