 Hey everyone, welcome to this week's video update exclusively for pro members today's Friday, January 24th Hope you all had a great week shortened week. Obviously Monday was the Martin Luther King holiday, so no trading on Monday, but fairly active the rest of the week Before we jump into the alerts and our current positions In the community who got caught being hot this week goes to Timothy Wilson, so Timothy's new to the community, but jumped in started answering questions And then this week also posted a question via a little quick video So really like that, you know, if you all have any questions that you just Would rather not sit there and type out it'd be easier to explain with a quick video Loom.com is a is a great little resource. It's free All you got to do is download it and then you can just literally click a button record your screen and post the link into the community and You don't have to show your face if you don't want to Timothy chose to which is cool but anyway a quick little Video that was a great question And I'm gonna address it a little bit more here on this update as we as we go through some of the different trades, so Good work, Timothy. Congrats. You got caught being hot The other thing I want to reference in the community here is if you go to events We've got our upcoming new strategy class the portfolio bunker strategy class. You just go to events You can click on that. There's a quick little kind of overview video and then scroll down and click here to register that'll bring you to the registration page and And that's where you can save your spot. So make sure you attend It's gonna be a good one You're gonna want to attend for all you pro members which everybody listening to this is a pro member This will be recorded and we will you know, cut it up into sections and into sections for you And it will become one of the classes So if you cannot attend live it will be available But try to be there if you can because it's good stuff and the timing I think is critical too. So Look forward to that and that's on Tuesday next week January 28th at 4 p.m Central time so look forward to seeing you then Let's jump into the alerts starting with Tuesday the 21st so the first alert was a an opening adjusting trade in Ford slash ZW which is wheat and We just closed out. Excuse me. This is when we added the iron condor in ZW so we had a short call vertical left from a previous iron condor and then we just added this one So go to the analyze tab here. You see we closed that piece out That was an alert today, but this is the one that we opened from that alert You see price is still dead-centered. So nothing to do but wait on that piece next trade opening trade in Netflix. So we put on a earnings reverse iron duck in Netflix this one with just three days to expiration That's what we'd like to do when they're announcing that day So we put that on and then we ended up taking it off the next day right here and just close that out and Booked a beak profit on that trade. So quick quick winner in Netflix. I Did a closing trade in BA Boeing. So we had a pre earnings long straddle in Boeing and Let me let me go to the chart of Boeing and take a look at that That was quite a move in Boeing and what happened as they came out and said basically hey You know, we're gonna be delaying the release of the max flight airplane and so that kind of Sent the world into a little bit of a tiff and and they they announced the news was coming And so trading actually halted at one point in Boeing and so But you can see this is the big day that we got out So we put this on right here on this day right near the open when prices trading right here the first day It it traded down We were profitable held it over the weekend and then this was Tuesday had that big move down So we booked a really nice profit on that. It's a good good time to take winners because it did rebound the next couple days so Next trade was a closing trade in Netflix. I already mentioned that one Rolling adjusting trade in QQQ. So we had one at one set of our short call verticals That was in February still had 30 days to expiration, but with price extending higher It was it was to a position where you know pretty small chance of getting back into range so we just rolled it out got it back to a positive theta position and Adjusted the strikes accordingly so and move that out to March with at that point 58 days to expiration So let's take a look at the cues. We've still got those two sets of short call verticals This is the one in Feb that we still have prices hanging out right here trying to get back into range And then the one that we rolled from that alert you can see is is in range and has come down a little bit since we put that on so holding those for that short Delta exposure and So that is the QQQ Next trade opening adjusting trade in gold. So we had an iron condor in gold We had a little bit of a pop-up and implied volatility got up the IV percentile got up to over 50 So we went ahead and added a an iron condor in gold So if we take a look we've still got two pieces on here. We've got the The short call vertical That was from our previous iron condor So we're holding this hoping to get that back into range and I get a little bit of down movement there And then the piece that we added is this new iron condor Where you can see prices pretty close to where we put it on so just waiting on that one Both of these are in the March cycle with 32 days to expiration So even on that short call vertical, we've got a lot of time To to see if that one can come back into range on gold So gold just being kind of giving us a little smiley face right here, but we will We'll be keeping our eye on that one Next trade opening trade in CL so oil moving around implied volatility Popping up and so we took a position in oil sold some premium in our good buddy CL You can see ever since the Iran thing where you know at first oil spiked up and then and then immediately Went down and has continued to slide down in dramatic fashion So we sold some premium with implied volatility price is pretty close to where we put it on So just just gonna wait and get some more theta to decay in oil Next trade opening trade in Netflix, so we put on another reverse iron duck in Netflix So Netflix was moving up pretty significantly on that day that we put it up put it on Which is this big green bar right here? So we put it on when price was was up quite a bit about right here And it just continued to escalate the next day today, which is Friday it popped up higher now It's come down so if we take a look at our duck You can see price is hanging out right in the middle of our duckhead now after One thing to comment. I there's a comment in the community about you know after we put it on and price moved higher There's a comment like you know, what are we gonna do with this? You know prices moving higher But price was hanging out right in the middle of the duckhead, which is exactly where we want it So when we put these trades on if it moves against us that doesn't mean we get out real quick We we have our specific criteria for a reason, you know We're gonna let these play out you got to let the probabilities play out You can't bail early or bail late just because you have a gut feeling about something You've got to let the probabilities play out and obviously price is kind of retracted back to that back to the middle And you know who knows I mean this thing could skyrocket and we'll have to you know get out But we don't do that until it happens and we've set these criteria of exiting at a hundred percent of Kind of the initial credit for a reason because that's the maximum that maximizes our profitability over time We don't trade based on gut feel or you know anything like that If you want to if you want to trade directly on Netflix be my guest go ahead You know take a you know sell a put spread or buy a call spread or buy some calls or whatever But if you're trading these strategies, you got to you got to use the criteria that we teach Let those probabilities play out, you know, you're not not all of them are gonna be winners You know we there is that there is the Small number of losers as well But you got to let the problem probabilities play out taking losses is part of the game And you and you got to be able to do that as well. You got to take the winners with the losers Okay next trade Okay, so this was the one today this morning in Intel now I mentioned this in the trade hacker update yesterday that they had announced earnings They were above the expected move and that's why we that's where we like to take these post earnings short put verticals So I announced it then About 15 or 20 minutes before the market opened. I announced. Hey, we're gonna be looking at short puts and short put verticals in Intel so With though with these types of trades these things can move very quickly So, you know, trying to wait for the alert and wait for the fill and get you know, then place it yourself You know at that point. I know a lot of people didn't get into this trade And and that and if we take a look at the charts INTC You know this thing opened up and just Boom shot higher. So, you know, we got in pretty close to after the market opened and And and got filled and sent the alert out. I mean within seconds And so that's just that's just part of you know, the markets being open the market's being moving if we look at the Intraday, you know, here's here's what happened. This is a five-minute chart. So I mean boom I mean it just shot up within 10 minutes. It was it was up here. So You've got to be ready for those, you know, if you're gonna take those You know, it's almost like can't wait for the alert You know, we give that we give a heads up of what we're looking at but we can't you know, we don't you know When the market opened I looked at short puts short put verticals I looked at different expiration cycles And so I don't know which strikes I'm going to trade until the market opens And so, you know, that's why I say you gotta you got to kind of be on top of that one And keep in mind. I mean, this is exactly why we teach the courses, you know We teach you step by step by step exactly when to place this trade And so, you know, this is one that you know, if you're waiting for the alert sometimes it's gonna run away now again Sometimes it's not right. I mean sometimes it's going to You know, it's gonna open up and it's gonna fade back down And so you'd actually get a better fill price and then it takes off, you know So it just you just don't know but you've got to learn the strategies And I think that's so critical and and you know, sometimes we get comments and going back to Timothy Wilson who posted the the video on the on you know, sometimes I will you know, put the trade on to analyze it And and it's not trading at the same price. Well, remember on Netflix as the as the other example You know this thing we put on Right here and then it just continued higher pretty quickly the next day was even higher And so the question that Tim posted in that video was Should I still get in and he's looking at it from this standpoint where price is right here in the middle of the duckhead? You know, so this would we put it on and in center price at that point? Absolutely not That's not the criteria that we teach for putting on these trades Is it still a Vella trade? Yeah. Heck yeah, I would I would look to even put on another one of these You know, but but with the criteria that we teach in the class, we're not gonna put it on at the same strikes You're not gonna get the same fill. That's not how trading works So you've got to be able to learn the strategies. You cannot blindly follow these alerts That is just that's not part of the game So I know some newer traders kind of come in and they you know trading options is not easy, right? There's you actually have to learn it you have to put in some work you have to put in the effort to make this happen and You know when we send out an alert The fill price that we get we don't we don't we typically don't unless we're gonna close a trade Sometimes we got in closing trades. We'll put it in order and let it sit for a while But on on opening trades. We don't we don't put in orders and let them sit for hours Okay, we we look at them. We adjust the strikes. We adjust the The you know the prices the expiration cycles all the different things and we're we're trying to get filled right away and so our fill price is only relevant to The time that we are placing the trade because our alerts go out within 30 60 90 seconds at the latest and So but still when the markets are open the markets are moving and so you're you know If you're trying to get the fill price sometimes you're gonna get filled better prices than us Sometimes you're gonna get filled it not as good prices as us Sometimes you're gonna have to adjust your strikes, but you've got to take ownership of that. You cannot you cannot chase other people's fills I don't know how else to say this you you if you're chasing somebody else's fills You're you're either going to get filled at better prices or worse prices or not at all Or you're gonna adjust your strikes and make it your own My suggestion is you've got to use these alerts as trade ideas any time somebody posts a Trade in the community. I don't even pay attention to the fill price that they got that is irrelevant That was relevant to the time that they put it on could have been five minutes ago Could have been two minutes ago could have been two hours ago It doesn't matter but the but the reality is you have to look at the trade alerts as trade ideas and And and tweak them and massage them to a fit into your portfolio You know you shouldn't be doing necessarily the same size as us You shouldn't be doing the same Anything is us. You should look at that as a trade idea and see if it fits in your portfolio Put it in if it fits great if you need to adjust the strikes because prices moved great do that and Make it happen. There's nothing magical about the prices that we get filled at It's simply the time that we put the trade in so I hope that's helpful because There you know, I get I get comments sometimes about you know, it's hard to get the same fill price as us Well, yeah, I know markets move there. They're open. Sometimes you get filled it better. Sometimes it worse, but anyway that that's That's the that's what you got to do and and guys keep in mind. I get so many emails a day I get from newer traders. I get it from our experienced traders The and and traders send me their P&L's and the Traders who are doing the best and are beating our alerts portfolio We have so many members that are beating the performance of our alerts portfolio And the only reason why is because they are taking ownership of their trading They're using the alerts as trade ideas, but they're making it their own their own size their own strikes They're own everything so please make sure that that's what you're doing if you're blindly trying to Follow the alerts with our fill. It's just it's a losing battle. And so you don't want to do that So hopefully that helps that's that's my rant for the day So please take it to heart because I want you guys to succeed more than anything. They're you know, I had one I Had won somebody email me and say something about how we get favorable fills And I'm just like what are you talking about? We we get the same fills everybody else does I mean we don't we don't get any we don't have any inside information from TD Ameritrade or TD Ameritrade or any inside Track or fill source. I mean, we're putting the trades in just like you guys and so That's what you got to do guys just take ownership of your trades and don't try to chase somebody else's fills That is a losing battle All right So next trade what else we got here Intel wheat that was the closing trade. So we closed out that short call vertical Closing trade in Intel. So yeah, so the other thing is we got in this trade and Just just literally an hour later. We got out of the trade book to profit by the way I think when the alert went out it said 50 per we booked 50% of max profit. That's what I was Initially wanting we ended up just getting 25% pretty quick. So I just closed it out So I went in and adjusted that so we booked 25% of max profit not 50 as it said in the email that you got The other thing I mentioned is, you know, we almost never get in a trade and out of the trade the same day But in this case, obviously we did because it moved so quickly Just remember if you get in and out of a trade if your counts under 25k You only have us, you know, you only have three day trades per week. So you got to be aware of that Closing trade in rut. So this one I was hoping we'd get a little bit of a bounce higher in the morning in rut And we could close this out But we did not the market is going down for once which I'm gonna get to here in a minute But rut we ended up Taking a loss on this one price never gave us that bounce that we needed today to book a profit It just kind of fell apart. So good stuff for a lot of our portfolio But was hoping to book a little profit on that rut trade, but we today was the last trading day So we needed to get out of that one Opening trade in FXI so Chinese large cap. So IV spiked in FXI today and With a little bit of down movement. So up in the 90 plus level on the IV percentile So we sold some premium sold a strangle now. I mentioned this in the alert, but we if you get the trade tab You've got to we did this with 56 days, you know, we did this at the you know at this point It's about the 30 delta 27 delta So this is a little bit closer to the money that we like but FX FXI is such a low-price symbol It's only 42 bucks that you've got to get closer We like to collect at least that buck when we're trading these short strangles And so that's what we had to do we had to go closer to the money So it's not going to give you as high of a probability of profit But the max profit is a little bit bigger by squeezing these strikes in so that's what we did And as I also mentioned, we are going to close this a little Sooner so 30 to 40 percent as opposed to we probably won't wait till 50 percent of max profit We'll close it close it a little quicker So those are all the alerts before we go to the current positions I just want to I want to talk about the market a little bit in general. So if we look at the S&P Obviously a sweet down day today down 37 now We've still got a couple hours before the market closes I'm recording this a couple hours before the market closes S&P's down 37 and What I want to point out is a couple things one if we look at the weekly expected move You know this thing has just been staying inside the expected move until last week And I don't think I mentioned this on last week's video, but it actually broke out and closed well above the expected move This week kind of trading trading trading and then right now. It's basically tagging the lower lower end of the expected move This will be set more when once the market closes. So it's still adjusting but You know with the down move with them in plaid volatility spike You can see we have a little bit bigger of a range that we're expecting next week And so we'll see what happens there, but that is all good stuff from an implied volatility Opportunity gives us more opportunity to sell some premium open some new positions. So we'll definitely be Doing that next week. The other thing I want to point out is I've mentioned a couple times And this is relevant specifically to our upcoming strategy class the bunker strategy Where we we want to pay attention to the relationship between the movement in spx or the s&p's which today is down almost exactly 1% and the VIX so on average the VIX is going to move You know if the s&p's down 1% the VIX is going to move up about 9% Well today it's up over 18% on a 1% down move in the spx now part of that is Has to do with the level of the VIX, right? So let me just go to a one-year chart The the level of the VIX matters, right? So if it's if it's lower One-year daily if the if the VIX is lower and we have a down move in the s&p You're gonna get a larger quicker move up in the VIX So if the VIX was already up here at 22 and the s&p moved down 1% it probably wouldn't move up 18% Right, it would be closer to the average so the average move is about 9% per 1% move in spx But that's that's relevant because when what we'll be talking about in the bunker class and and you know just the fact that there's so much complacency in the market and You know everything you know unemployment is at all-time lows You know we've got the you know potential president impeachment the market's shaking that off. We've got the Trade Wars markets shaking that off. We've got missiles from Iran market shakes that off like it's nothing We've got all these different geopolitical issues and the market is just shaking those off now my my thought my thesis is The next correction that we see like major market correction like like more than a 20% decline in the market that we see I think it's going to be something that we're not necessarily even aware of you know I don't think it's going to be a war with the Middle East. I don't think it's going to be You know the trade war, you know, all these different things that are going on I think it's going to be something that we're not necessarily aware of if if any of you were trading or at least investing in 2008 during the financial crisis Now everybody knew that the mortgage market was and the real estate market was a little crazy, right? I mean, I think everybody knew hey You know people are getting loans that they probably shouldn't blah blah blah Was that going to do but there's all these, you know, huge investment banks backing backing these papers What we didn't know was the credit default swaps and the leverage that was happening behind the scenes unless you were in that space Very few people knew of that whole situation and that's what really Created that massive collapse of Bear Stearns Lehman Brothers and and and some of the major issues that that we had and so I think if we see Another you know black swan type event or a market crash or correction It's gonna be something that we're not it's not in plain daylight You know, it's not it's not in plain sight of all the things that are going on right now It's gonna be something that's kind of unknown and and and so that that's that's just kind of my take but This bunker class that we're talking about, you know, we're gonna be utilizing strategies You know on VIX and some of these different ways that we can help protect our accounts Not only is it gonna allow us to protect our Account but it's gonna allow us to be more aggressive and go for better returns with the rest of our portfolio. So It's really good stuff. So again, make sure you're there Tuesday on the 28th Okay, so let's go over some of our other positions. We've got oil. I mentioned Yes, we've got this long put vertical that we're holding for short Delta our short Delta loves days like today This one price is still just outside range Need a little bit more to get back in on that. I mentioned gold and add a gas moving down a little bit today We've got two different pieces here. We've got our Regular short strangle that's not adjusted prices hanging out right here if it moves much lower We are going to roll our calls down. There's not too much premium left in those calls But there's a little bit of juice. So we'll give it a little bit more time. Obviously if it bounces higher We'll be good to go. If not, we will roll our calls down And then we've got our adjusted our inverted strangle, which is kind of outside of our range But it's the same story if we look at just the calls Just the calls here You can see, you know, we've got a tiny bit of juice left in those So if price continues lower, we're gonna roll down those calls collect another credit and continue to manage that one Bonds okay, so bonds have come back really nicely I was I was almost going to when price was hanging out right here. I was almost gonna add a couple times I tried to add a Centered short strangle around where price was but price is really shot up And so it's pretty dead centered here. Now. We're only about a couple hundred dollars away from booking Getting back to break even on this trade that we've been kind of rolling in adjusting for the last couple months and so We're just holding this for now We have what is it 28? Yeah 28 days to expiration And so next week we will look to either close this or we will potentially roll it out to the next cycle Collect another credit and give it a little bit more time to to get back to profitability. So bonds doing some good stuff and You know, all we need is a little bit of a contraction in implied volatility So if we look at tlt, which is the corresponding etf, you know, obviously with the market going down bonds going up today implied volatility spiking You know things just kind of settle down next week and and just kind of trade sideways for a couple days and implied volatility contracts We'll probably just get out of this book a winner and then look to potentially You know re-enter if implied volatility pops back up. So That is the plan in bonds I mentioned wheat apple. So I mean look at this Apple's crazy. So the market's down, you know 40 points the sp is down 40 apple It's down just not even a quarter of a percent. So it was up a lot more and it's come down off of its highs But apple is just unbelievably strong. Now. We do have earnings coming up next week on the 28th, so that's Tuesday after the market closes So right when we're presenting our bunker strategy apple will be announcing earnings And uh, and so we'll see what happens. We're gonna hold our trade obviously through that We're just we're holding this for that short delta exposure at some point. This has got to get a little bit of a A downside relief. So We will see what happens in apple John Deere same thing. We're holding this for a downside exposure and we got a little bit of that today You can see prices hanging out right here If this continues lower, we'll to keep this short delta We'll just kind of move these strikes closer and then we'll roll out to march But right now we're just kind of holding DIA we've got these two sets of short call verticals one in feb where price is just outside the range And then this one in march where price is right here just inside the range FXI I mentioned IWM we've got a long put vertical with this down move Getting that's a little profit on that one just holding that for the short delta exposure as well By the way, our short delta exposure right now kind of our range, you know And I haven't talked about this much in a couple weeks But our range of short delta versus our theta if we beta weight it to spy We like to have between one to one and five to one Of short delta versus our theta and right now we're at about one and a half to one so Surprisingly even and that's after today's big down move obviously, but um with the market grinding higher We have not accumulated as much short delta and that's due to Doing a lot of iron ducks as as opposed to You know some other more delta neutral type strategies that we would you know Manage and roll so that's a good thing Um, I wouldn't mind having more short delta on a day like this of course, but that's uh, that's hindsight So we can't we can't play that way So that's IWM Netflix I mentioned that one QQQ mentioned that one SPX we've got two ducks So I've actually been trying to get out of this one all week Uh, and this is the one that expires next week Uh, you know it was at a point now the markets move down We're in a different situation so it might end up coming back to benefit us But um, you know this one when price was way up here We had less than a 10 chance of getting back into the duck head And so I was trying to close that out for big profit and I wasn't going to pay more than five bucks Which is the width of our call spread But I was trying to get out for five bucks or or less and just never got filled and and so now price is coming back down So we'll see if it can continue down for us, but uh, so we'll just hold onto that until expiration at this point Then the other one that we have expires on feb five So prices hanging out right here just starting to potentially enter the duck head area So if we take off, um, this one next week, we'll add another Um spx iron duck to kind of ladder into this at a longer time frame probably with anywhere from 14 to 21 days If we get another big down move in the market and we get this implied volatility really popping We can start doing some shorter term ducks kind of in that, you know seven 14 day range So that's always a lot of fun SPY we've got this short call vertical prices hanging out right here Need a little bit more down movement to get back into range there Tesla big move down today. Well actually compared to what tesla has been doing not not much of a not much of a move But down two and a half percent. So price is hanging out kind of the mid-range It's come all the way back down starting to enter the beak area now So remember, uh, they announce on the 29th after the market closes So we'll have to see where we're at. I mean if price if price is hanging out, you know down here That's just like putting on a duck right before earnings, which we might do anyway So in that case, we would just hold on to it if price is way up here You know, I don't I don't necessarily know if I want to run the risk of a huge gap higher overnight with earnings And then we take a big loss So it depends on where price is before they announce if we're up in this beak area We'll leave it on if we are you know way up here. We'll probably take it off if we're somewhere right here It's kind of gray area. I'd probably I'd probably leave it on but uh, but I'll make a I'll make sure I post something to kind of remind you and you can you can make the choice on on what you think's best Lastly xlk. We've got a long put vertical here for that short delta. I need some more downside to get that one back into range a couple other things that I'm looking at For next week xbi has got some good juice to it now as well Let me xbi Uh, I was looking at some some premium selling some premium in here as well we added fxb or fxi And uh, you know, I don't I don't want to just load the boat and start selling premium on the first down day that we've seen in What feels like three months, but um getting a good spike in implied volatility here So if that stays high into next week, we'll be selling some premium in xbi Um, what else do I got, you know some of these interestingly enough some of these other You know xrt the retail etf. I mean implied volatility is coming up a little bit, but not too much xlf is another one that's starting to get near that 50 level with a big move down today the banks fall The market, uh, the banks go down the market's gonna follow. So that's that's good to see Uh, but some of these international like ewz Barely barely popping and it's barely down. I was down over a percent, but implied volatility is barely moving eww mexico implied volatility is coming up But still it's only at that 29 level on the percentile Uh, eem, you know, it's starting to come up. So that's another one that we'll look at Uh, fxb the british pound and the, uh, euro applied volatility is still super low in those Uh, and the gld, you know, we've got that iron condor and gold TLT bonds we've got a position in bonds and so Definitely some opportunity coming our way and then of course a lot of earnings. Oh, that was the last thing I wanted to go Last thing I wanted to do if we go to the market watch tab and the calendar We can look at the different earnings coming up. So Let's start with monday. I don't think what there was anything. I'll make sure I post this in the morning update, but nothing I don't think there was any Stocks that I was really excited about trading But then on as I mentioned on tuesday, we've got apple Uh, and then let's see what else amd another one's not a high price stock, but it's a very liquid stock Let's see what else here Cree, Cree's a decent one to trade eBay another smaller price lower price stock, but a decent one to trade And I'll put again. I'll post these on our kind of the current position and outlook post that we do in the community Pfizer pfe it's another one so Earnings are starting next week start getting into high gear You can see there's 151 earnings announced on wednesday now You know, we only trade the the big most liquid one. So Uh, definitely not anything you need to be aware of as far as that many stocks But you know, you've got bowing you've got alibaba on wednesday So we will uh, we'll post about those in the community and I know I know you trade hackers will be sharing some earnings trade ideas Which is awesome. So look forward to that everybody. Have a great weekend Look forward to talking to you next week. Have a good one