 Folks, welcome to the week ahead commentary podcast. This is Bob Desmond recording from our Contrarian Trading Studios in New York. What we're gonna talk about this week are our views of how we close out the week on the major averages. Then we're gonna segue over to into our positions, how we stand with those trades, will we add, will we sell? Then we'll focus in on our focus stocks, those stocks that we find most attractive going into the new trading week. And if you want the full video experience of the week ahead commentary, become a member, 14 day free trial offer. Join us in our new members slack community. And I look forward to engaging with you there. Let's get started. Okay folks, welcome to the week ahead commentary. This is Bob Desmond and it is the 28th of November. Let's begin with, as we normally do, the review of the markets on a closing basis, meaning what was the quality of the close in the bond market, in the stock market. And from there, we can divine which direction we wanna take. Do we wanna be long, short? Do we wanna stay flat? How aggressive do we wanna be in either direction? So let's begin with bonds. Had you asked me before I pulled up this chart, I would have said that the TLT closed at the lows of the week. I didn't watch the bond market all that closely yesterday. But as you can see, we saw a rally in the back half of the week off the lows. We did hold a breakout point, meaning we broke out the week of the 16th, a down week last week, sending yields up higher, yet we rallied off the lows of the week. So for all intents and purposes, bond prices are poised to move higher, unless of course we take out last week's lows and then all bets are off. But if we do press on higher above 161 spot 54 on the TLT, expect bond yields to drop and expect technology stocks, including the triple cues to rally. Taking a look at bond yields weekly basis. They ticked up last week, but failed to recapture support. They failed to hold the highs of the week. This is not a broken chart yet, so the jury's out. So a big question mark next to bond prices and bond yields going into the new trading week. And that's a problem where there is no questions when we pull up a chart of the chips, TIP, the symbol, weekly view, you could see that we had a big week last week up over a third of a percentage point. That's a big move. And I hate to repeat myself, but for those that are new, the reason why people buy TIPs, and it's not people, it's institutions, mostly that buy chips, they buy chips to protect themselves against inflation. But all we hear is that there is no inflation, yet the chips are sending a far different signal than what the narrative is out of the Federal Reserve. The US dollar weekly view. We called for a break in the US dollar last week. This week we got the break in the US dollar. This is a significant breakdown. And I think that we're only going lower. And for those out there that are thinking that the gold trade is over, the gold trade has just begun. This is a pause that refreshed. We'll go to that chart in a moment. Now when you take a look at your RSI rounding top, you never want to see this. Not below 50, you never want to see it. And when I say 50, I mean the neutral line at 50. So whenever we get this, normally it doesn't bode well for the equity, the currency, the bond, whatever. Cupcakes, it doesn't matter. This rounding action here is a signal that momentum is waning and waning dramatically. In fact, momentum when he had a countertrend rally was so weak, we couldn't even cross above the 50 line on the stochastics nor on RSI. And take a look at this now. This is the outcome of when I say it's not gonna end well. This is not gonna end well. This is just beginning. What we saw from August through to September was a countertrend rally, which is now on the verge of being taken out. You're gonna see a continuation breakdown on the US dollar. I can't be more bearish on this currency. The VIX, we called for a filling of the gap on the VIX. This is a weekly chart at the 1999 level. The low of the week last week was 1951. So we have filled that gap. Do I think that we go lower here? I'm not quite sure. There's a new support level. We did manage to close back above 20. If I had to hazard a guess, I would say odds favor VIX bears. We are seeing a higher low on an ultimate oscillator, but your stokes are still very, very weak. Let's go to a daily chart. Week, I think the next price target, if we do take out the lows of last week is 1841. I will say this, that stokes are hooking up. RSI is still weak. Moving on to equities. The Dow transports. Weekly chart. We're seeing signs of topping action. We were up last week. Yes, it was a great week, but we know that. That's the obvious. What we're looking for is the not so obvious. And we've seen three consecutive up weeks of topping action. Week one, two, last week three. Volume has dropped off consecutively. So we're losing volume. We are very long in the tooth here and we are seeing profit taking daily chart. RSI holding support, price action fairly weak, but no break holding 12,500. Volume was obviously light yesterday. The Dow Jones industrial average. Continuation breakout last week up two spot 21%. Indicators still look strong. RSI stokes going the right direction. Price good, little bit of topping action, but we negated the prior week's bearish reversal bar. Volume was obviously light this past week. The S&P 500 weekly chart, very strong week up two spot 27%. You can see that the higher lows on stokes you saw follow through, very powerful. I think that we're gonna move up higher here. I think we're moving lower on VIX, higher on S&P 500. MACD very extended, volume very light. So looking at these charts, as you proceed into Christmas, I think we're gonna get higher highs. Probably gonna see some sector rotation. I'll talk to you about that wire in a moment. IWM weekly chart, very strong week, up nearly 4%. On the month we are up over 20%, but going back to that weekly chart, we're very extended here folks. So we're gonna be looking to add to our short position very aggressively fairly soon of the small caps. Daily chart, but prior to doing that, I think we're going higher. So no rush quite yet to go add it to shorts. But when we do, it's gonna be an aggressive short. Now, looking at the Q's, the trip Q's weekly chart, what I think is gonna happen here is that you're gonna see a pause in the cyclical names, your ExxonMobiles, your US Steals of the world. They've come a long way. They're a bit extended. Your small caps are very extended. At some point in time, they're gonna pause, correct, pull back to the right thing as it's supposed to do. But I think what's setting up here, especially if we get a move lower on yields, I think that technology is getting ready to break out. So we'll be looking to add long to technology. This is a chart of the trip Q's weekly timeframe. Take note of the breakout on RSI, higher lows on stokes. We had broken out on price two weeks ago. We retested, actually three weeks ago, retested once, twice last week. The third time was a charm. We had a follow-through. So very bullish setup here. Daily chart, continuation move up higher yesterday. Stokes look rock solid. We had a triangle formation, which had set up. We had broken out. RSI looking good. So the Q's looking good. The banks, very extended. I think it was fellow member Justin who was asking about the banks when is the time to get short? You know, I think they may take a pause. I don't know whether or not I would want to short the banks. Not quite yet anyway. Maybe drilling down to a daily chart would help change my mind, but I don't think so. We are very extended relative to the third standard deviation, Boljaban in red, daily chart. Before we leave the daily chart, take note of your RSI and your stokes moving up higher. Daily chart, very strong. Yes, it was a down day, the past couple of days, but it's consolidation. So I think they're gonna eke out another up move, but the weekly chart is very, very extended. So I would not initiate a new trade here. Far too much risk, not enough reward. Technology broke out last week. XLK on our watch list, especially moving into the holiday season. So here's your breakout on RSI, breakout on stokes, breakout on price. You have a trifecta of all good stuff. So it looks like technology is going to take the reins and lead this market up higher. The semis in Fuego, very extended on back day. Daily chart, continuation move higher. Yesterday, semis were probably going up higher. LABU, what a monster move last week. I know Franklin hopefully is still longer this. I think we were right next to that $86 per share price target. So we closed at 83.41, looking very good. Daily chart, beautiful move higher yesterday. Normally I wouldn't quote the volume on an abbreviated day, but just be careful here. There's very light volume and they moved it over 10% in a day. Energy, another monster week last week up over 8.5%. We did hit resistance. We did back off and we'll probably pull back further. We've come a long way, very, very fast. And I suspect we'll get a correction. Daily chart, 38 is support level number one on XLE. 36 bucks a share, if we get a nasty pullback that'll be a nice entry point. Oil, monster move last week up over 6.5%. And it appears as though we're gonna go higher. And if the dollar continues to break down as it is, brother look out below for the dollar and load up your gas tanks now and your home heating oil tanks. Let's take a look at home heating oil out of curiosity. Cause last I looked, it was ripping up higher. Here's a chart, nice breakout. So the trend, oh look at this. What a monster move last week. I think we're going up to let's draw a trend line. I'll throw out a number on home heating oil. We're looking at a buck 70 to a buck 80 on home heating oil. We moved through resistance last week. So load up on that home heating oil. Gold at a horrible, horrible week last week. We looked as though it was gonna hold 1850. It did not. This is a butt ugly chart. We did hit support at 1788, but it failed to hold. So let's move this support level down a bit down here. I think that's 1760 is probably where we're gonna move to. Actually we did hold 1788. I think we're probably gonna move lower anyway. But take note of the stochastic. I mean, it is really, really oversold. Let's throw the trend line down here to illustrate. You know, we've been lower in the past, but keep in mind that when you're using your stokes on a weekly timeframe, you wanna put prior periods into context. So right now, even though this is a weekly chart that's a monster ugly chart, remember what the quarterly chart looks like. Right, we're still in a major bull run. Yes, we were extended. Yes, we're pulling back. But unlike prior periods where we had extreme oversold levels on your stochastics, we were in either A, a bear market or B, a consolidation allowing for that sell off. I don't think we're gonna get the same this time. Could be wrong. To positions, GDXJ broke support last week. We did add, we added more at a good price. Have we seen the lows? I'm not sure. I think we may need to sell some covered calls in this position. We really need to hold 48 bucks a share. We don't wanna see a close down below that point. If we do, it's gonna get real, real, real fast. Daily chart. Yesterday was a very good day. They tried to take it down along with gold. GDXJ wasn't having any of that. It did open down, reverse the close up. Not only did it close up and flash an outside reversal day. So I think that will probably move up higher. And there wasn't an assassination of a nuclear scientist. The Iranian nuclear scientist, he was their lead guy. And you're gonna see tensions ratchet up over in the Persian Gulf. And that could keep a bid under gold prices along with the US dollar for that matter when you have geopolitical risk. But GDXJ looking good price target about 51 bucks a share. Short term. Gold money, eat out of gain last week, bullish reversal bar, I'm not liking these stokes. Rounding top, that wouldn't be a buyer here. Cal main foods, eat out of gain last week, spinning top formation. You know, these are just not sexy stocks right now. Nobody wants gold, nobody wants food stocks. They want cyclical names. They want these EV stocks. So no reason to go adding more here right now. You're just parking cash and non-performing asset. I think it goes higher, but wait for a breakout before we go adding anymore. Silver, horrible week last week. Stopped at support, 37.50. I think we're going lower here. Probably the 35 bucks a share. Think about it, silver has been halved. So if you liked it back in, if you liked it back in July, you gotta love it right now. So we'll wait for that big reversal day and we'll go adding more. Ideally a reversal week. This is a daily chart. Gapped down yesterday along with gold. No reason to go buying it right here right now. Uranium, a very good week last week. We're up over four and a third percent. Stopped at resistance. I think we're going to press higher here. Daily chart, we attempted a breakout Thursday, excuse me, Friday. Keep forgetting what stocks are given. And we were rejected. Indicators still look good. We'll remain low. Facebook weekly chart. I'm torn here. Good price action, horrible stoke action. Take note, rounding top. Not good, but good price action. That trumps the stokes. Volume, well it's a abbreviated week again. So we're not going to read too much into volume. Daily chart, I think we're breaking out. We had broken out a few days ago. Retest one, retest two. I think we're breaking out higher on Facebook. US Steel, of which we are short. We did not go adding more yesterday. I wanted to see 15 to 1550, it wasn't to be. Maybe we'll get it on Monday. Last week, US Steel was up 33%. Talk about a love affair with cyclicals. But they can correct just as hard as they crash up. They can crash down. Now I'm not predicting a crash here. I'm just predicting a correction. We closed out the week last week, well above the third standard deviation ball in your band. We did close above resistance of 1443 at 1455. There's that 1550 mark up here. Volume was very good, especially for an abbreviated week, daily chart. So yesterday we eked out a game, but this is topping action. This is spinning top formation, filled candlestick. Last time we had one of these was back here. The following day was no bueno. Prior to that, here, this is just off the top of my head there maybe more. Here, back on June the 16th. Next day, no bueno, not good stuff. So I'm expecting a pullback here and we'll have to put profits and move to the sidelines. And maybe we can even get long. I like US Steel longer term. Emerging markets, the EDC, up nearly 6% on the week last week. A bit extended, but the dollar's breaking. China's doing quite well despite the supply chain shift. We're gonna talk more about that in a moment. But EDC looking very good here. 30% of the EDC is China. So be forewarned. So we'll remain long. Look to add, let's check out a daily chart. Little bit of resistance, but I think emerging markets, they're gonna be a place to be in 2021. BRZU, we closed at 97.50. We're up nearly 11.5% on the week. Very good price action. I think we're going higher here, especially with oil prices rising. Brazil being a major oil producer and that is it for positions. Let's move on to our watch stocks. The first chart up as our watch stocks, or ETF in this case, the EPI Wisdom Tree India Earnings Fund, we've spoken about this one as recently as yesterday. So far in the month, this is a monthly chart. We're up nearly 14%. I think that this is just the beginning. We're very close to breaking out above all-time highs. Let's drill down, let's go to a daily chart. They keep gapping it up day after day after day. Solid, solid rally here. So this is one where it's not a swing trade. It's an investment along with VNM. That's the Vietnam ETF. Another chart that we're watching is Twilio weekly chart. Very close to a breakout here on a weekly timeframe. We had a nice pause. Stokes looking really good. RSI looking really good. We hooked up last week on Ultimate Oscillator. Higher lows that we're breaking out on Twilio. Daily chart, really nice setup here. Little cup action. I don't think we're gonna get a downward sloping handle. I think we're just gonna move up higher. We've already broken out. Really solid chart. Nothing not to like here. Twilio is probably one of my favorites going into the week as a swing trade. Into continental exchange. We're no strangers to ICE. We have traded this in the past and treated it as well. And it appears as though we are about to break out. The commodity trade is back on. No breakout yet, but I think that a breakout in the close above 105, spot 04. It's game on to the long side. Daily chart. Very strong week last week. Stokes looking good. RSI looking good. Very strong. The Venecht video gaining and eSports ETF. ESPO, ESPO, the symbol, weekly chart. Very close to a breakout here. We flashed a bullish Q-reversal bar last week. Daily chart. Clean breakout. I would love to see a retest of the breakout point on ESPO. I think it goes up higher. And that folks is it for this week. I hope to catch you tomorrow night on Southern Eye Futures Live. Don't forget to enter your symbols on the stock chart request page. And I will talk to you soon. Be well.