 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the access to the trader.com nightly wrap up show. Everybody is doing well. It is Tuesday. It is August the 8th. We are down the stretch run for summer. We're obviously going to miss it. We're holding on to it every last bit of it as all of us that live in the Northeast really appreciate the summer. If you guys don't live here, you obviously don't know, but hopefully everybody is doing well. If you are brand new to the channel, like, you know, like, subscribe, share, come with us on this journey. Thank you very much for tuning in. We really do appreciate your viewership. So let's talk about, you know, let's talk about the day, right? Some facts for the day on the Nasdaq 100. This is day five below the 20 day moving average. If you would just been watching this broadcast for the last five days, you know, we keep on reiterating the point. How important that 20 day moving average is above demand. The market goes higher above supply or excuse me, below supply. The market starts going lower and that's exactly what we did. If you go back to yesterday's video, I even gave you guys the specific number on the queues. 371.50. All you got to do is go back to last night's video. 371.50 was kind of a very, very aggressive area. It held three times in a row in the last several days. It finally got hit today and the queues traded all the way down below 69 and we'll get into the ramification of what happens next because, well, here's the 50 day moving average and we all know what happened in 2022 when we lose the 50 day moving average. So it's very, very important. Moody's, right? Moody's today downgraded a whole bunch of regional banks. The market obviously did not like to hear that news. So far, Fitch has downgraded the credit rating of the United States. Moody's now has downgraded the credit rating for several regional banks. The market has a very, very long memory. If you guys remember last year with the whole regional bank crisis, shoot first, ask questions later. That definitely was a catalyst today for the selling in the markets. SPX, right? We'll use the SPY as a proxy. The S&P, ever since it's lost the 20 day moving average as well, has been down five out of the last six days. And the only reason why it didn't continue going further down is because it hit this rising Bollinger Band as well. After the close, some pretty big multiples, right? Got hit with the market. UPST, there's been a really big high flyer. If you guys remember on yesterday's broadcast, it lost a big area here on this pivot below $59.50. And today, after hours reported, down another 17%, market not liking its quarter. SMCI as well, big, big move down, down another 14%. After hours, so again, the market is treating the earnings. Sometimes it treats its earnings based on market overall sentiment than individual value. Because if you look at Rivian's earnings tonight, so far none of it, right? And they actually did come out with, I guess, okay numbers of losing less money is a good quarter. But Rivian was expected to lose $1.37. They came in only losing $1.08. Only Wall Street is the only place on the planet that still commends you for losing less. But that's what happened. But instead of rallying the stock, so far, a muted reaction after the close down about $0.50. So not really that big of a deal yet. CEOs saying he's looking for sequential growth. We'll see what happens. But in case it doesn't, I want to watch the bottom of the range here. As you can see where the Bollinger Band here, this 2360 area. I want to watch this thing because if you look at the last couple of days where it stopped, it's been the same level here. So just in case for tomorrow, I want to keep an eye on this thing. Maybe even tonight, as I'm recording this video, I'm keeping one eye on the earnings. So you have so far and not a great earnings quarter today. Tomorrow you got roadblocks coming out with earnings. Let me see what else is coming out with earnings tomorrow. You got roadblocks coming out with tomorrow. You got Disney. You got Disney roadblocks. Las Vegas win. You have win resorts coming out. Penn National Gaming is coming out earnings tomorrow after the close. They are selling barstools back to Dave Fortnoy. Congratulations, Pizza Guy. Let's see what else, what else, what else. I think that's it for tomorrow's as far as earnings. There are really big numbers tomorrow. There are going to be roadblocks, Disney, and win resorts. So going into today, again, you have to be sell biased. I liked going into today's session on Amazon. If we were going to rally, I always try to make a game plan from both sides. I liked Google going into today. It didn't confirm yesterday's channel, but it did not sell off. And that's a very, very important thing. If we do have kind of a dead cat bounce rally in the next couple of days, look at Google. It's just not selling off here. And they did come from 132, 133 weekly calls. Amazon, who's been strong, you know, not really is that strong today. I kind of liked it going into today's session above yesterday's range. Obviously never got to it. But the stocks that continue to get sold off are the ones that we continue to focus on. Tesla yesterday, well, not just yesterday. Well, yesterday lost his 50-day moving average. Today is day two, below the 50-day moving average. I don't expect a lot of movement in the stock, a lot of herky jerky probably action in the next couple of days. But if it can, if this is the most important part, if it cannot get back above the 50-day moving average, I have to assume Thursday, Thursday into Friday, we're going to see a challenge of yesterday's channel. And boy, boy, if this thing starts losing yesterday's channel in the next couple of days, look at which room you have all the way to the bottom. So that's not going to be something great if Tesla can't rally for the next couple of days. Names, for example, like Square continue to kind of bleed. We talked about Square. There's a lot of names right now that are not participating on the video. And the video had, I guess it was some sort of conference. The CEO was speaking to the AI supercomputer, superconductor, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. We'll get to the pivots in a second. Again, this is day three below the 10-day, now day three below the five-day. I want to watch this thing. They were coming for the 430 and the 435 weekly puts into this, I guess, presentation by the CEO. We also saw a good handful of September 420 puts going into September as well as far as the indexes go. Again, the same thing, guys. We are keep on building below the 20-day moving average. Watch the spies in the next couple of days. It doesn't have to happen tomorrow. But if the spies start losing 445, then we're going to have a date with the 50-day moving average. And we'll get to the importance of the 50-day when it gets closer. Again, if you're a macro bull, you don't want to have that conversation. Again, all you have to do is revert to 2022 what happens if you lose the 50-day moving average. Matter of fact, all you have to do is look to see what happened to Tesla when he lost the 50-day moving average. So that's a conversation. Hopefully, if you are a permable bull, we won't be having, but we always have to be prepared. And again, for me, it doesn't make a difference long, short, or indifferent. I'm looking for value. I don't fall in love with the stock. I fall in love with technical analysis and the ranges. If you look at the cues, again, stopped at the Bollinger Band today. Again, the same conversation as the spies. We might be having soon on the cues if they don't start balancing back. If they don't start reclaiming at least this 376 area. It's going to be super-duper important that they do. Or else, again, that 50-day is not that far off. They didn't quite test it there today, but it's not far off. The most important part, and I'm seeing this a lot from a lot of new traders, a lot of new options traders. I'm not an options trader, but I'm probably the biggest novice when it comes to options. But the one thing I do know, right? I do know as clear as day, when you are under-supplying, right now the cues and the S&P are under-supplied, the last thing you want to do is buy, call, premium. We're under-supplied. That's the whole point. There's no movement. There's no room to proceed with higher prices. You want to sell premium. I'm seeing a lot of newer traders talking about, well, I bought calls on this. There's no reason to buy calls right now, guys. Unless you're taking some random lottery ticket into earnings, which is gambling in itself, which is a, you know, do not do anyway, you know, go on Draftkins, go on Fandle, bet on a sporting event. At least I'll have some fun watching the game. But unless you're taking some sort of yellow calls into earnings, you're meeting every single day with supply. That's why every single rally for the last three, four days, even yesterday, we talked about in yesterday's video, despite the market rallying, we're still putting in lower highs into supply. So if you're a brand new trader, always keep this in mind. Above supply, you can buy calls. Below supply, you want to sell them, because again, there is no movement and technical sellers are coming in during emotional buyers uptakes throughout the day. It's very, very important you understand that now until it's too late until you burn out your mental and your equity. It's very, very important to understand that. So again, bulls need some work. They need to get back above supply. I don't know where the catalyst is going to be. It just feels like more and more negative news is coming out here on the day today. You know, you have Moody's with the downgrids and banks, then you have earning season coming, kind of winding down. Again, we understand we have Nvidia coming up soon. But again, I have very, very highly doubt that Nvidia is going to save the market if all these other bohemus couldn't do so. But again, you never know, right? You never know. Again, we live by day to day. We trade by day to day, one day at a time, one trade at a time. Again, we're not trying to predict what's going to happen in 2096, right? That's not exactly what we do. So let's talk about the pivots today. Again, this was a really good one. This was a pretty good pivot towards the end of the day, excuse me, towards the end of the morning. So CEO of Nvidia was giving a keynote speech in Los Angeles, some sort of conference. And he started talking AI, superconductor, macroconductor, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And the whole thing was, again, we weren't prepared for one side of the market. We were prepared for both. So we had 25650 to the upside, 444 to the downside. There was a mixed bag of options activity into this conference. The 465 weeklies were coming out. And also the 435 weeklies puts. And we traded the downside, right? That was the whole point, the 444 breakdown. We actually started shorting this thing through the lows of the day of 445. But once it got below 445, went all the way down into the 440 area. Really good move, really, really good move to seal the morning session. Square, not that big of a move yet. Square, 6250 pre-market lows. It closed about, you know, it closed about 6230s. Not a big move yet, but again, still looks lower. DOCN never confirmed 3430. Actually, DOCN actually, I'm very, very surprised that it actually bouncing. We're still watching that 3430s level for the next couple of weeks. Amazon obviously never got close to 5254. Google, even though it did not confirm, it's holding on, guys. I'm telling you, this is the only stock that really interests me if we do have a dead cab balance in the next couple of days. This thing is actually holding on fairly well. And look at the last four days as the NASDAQ is putting in lower highs and lower lows. The funny thing is Google is actually putting in higher lows and just hugging this five and 10-day moving average. So again, this is the only one I'm really interested in, just in case there's a dead cab balance tomorrow. But again, it looks ready if we do bounce. So that was fine. Microsoft got hit. I believe we talked about Microsoft on the video. 327 held twice with builds below can flush. Microsoft got hit. Congratulations, all you guys. It took Microsoft again. This is what happens when you lose the 50-day. You see, guys, once Microsoft lost the 50-day, all the predominant actions happened to the bottom of the move. So here was 327. It lost 327. It went all the way down to 323. Great job. Great job for you guys. It took that. Netflix, you know, not a big move. 442 meets the build, went up like $1.50. And then, as you can imagine, it died like everything else. Meta never got up to 318.41. But this is the one that we talked about yesterday. Again, I always try to give you guys, I always try to give you guys a specific price point in the ETFs. Again, not for every other stock, obviously, just because, you know, for office reasons. But for all you guys who are tuning in, thank you very much. That's kind of my way of saying thank you for your viewership, for all your years of watching the channel. We talked about this 371.50. And last night's video held three times if it builds below can flush. Q's got hit. Congratulations for all you guys who took it. It took out this 371.50. This whole range here is 7150 and went down to 6880s. Great move, great, great move on that as well. So that's it. The stage is set for tomorrow. Tesla was looking for a dead cat bounce here who never came. Oh, yeah, there was one last pivot. I forgot about this thing. It took this thing for a little bit of cash flow. Boeing 239 needs to build. They were coming for the 245 and 260 calls. It spiked initially up 50 cents and then it ran up another $1.5. But yeah, little cash flow. Something is better than nothing. And that's it. That's it, guys. So again, we continue to build below the 20-day moving average. And if the bulls do not get their act together, we will soon be having this conversation and once again, the importance of who has control of the 50-day. And again, I don't want to put the cart in front of the horse, but if you are a permable, you don't want to have that conversation. Because again, all you need to do is look at 2022 what happens when the Q's lost the 50-day. Guys, God bless everybody. I hope everybody's doing really, really well. I hope everybody's healthy, happy, and more important, live to see another day. Guys, have a great day. I'll see you all tomorrow. Take care.