 Hi, my name is Liam Rowe currency trader and trading coach at training 180 comm and welcome to this week's supply and demand Forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis for the week ahead starting the 1st of April And I'd like to wish you all and hope you had a very happy Easter and they're enjoying the Easter Monday break if you know your country does observe the Easter break And I hope you all had a great trading week also and looking forward to the new one We've got a short week of course because today the markets are pretty should be quiet as a lot of the major markets are closed for today so Let's get into the week ahead and it does say on from our trading economics calm That it would be a very busy week in the United States with investors focusing on the labor market report Featuring non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate other important data include jolt's job openings ISM manufacturing and services PMI factory orders and foreign trade data globally market participants will keep a close eye on the March inflation rates for Germany and the Euro area in addition manufacturing PMI readings from Canada and Switzerland Trade data from Canada and Australia will offer insights into the global trade dynamics Moreover the unemployment rate in Canada and the Euro area are set to influence market sentiment and investment decisions so again, it's all about the fundamentals and really You know what is market moving and The two main components for really prices to move over the medium to long-term or you know Interest rates inflation and GDP in a short term is really about and kind of like the liquidity side of things, but let's get into the trades of the weeks and trade analysis and some trades that I'm in and starting off on the the cad yen this weekend I mean on the cad yen and the Euro yen and really the reasons why I'm in on these trades And we can go to the the discord room As well I posted this that I was interested in this trade by the way So this isn't necessarily hindsight bias. This was posted on the 21st or the third In the group and here it is if you look at the chart and I was anticipating that there would be a stop Hunt sometimes there is sometimes there isn't but if it does show that there is likely to be a stop hunt Then I will get involved in it. Basically did and One of the reasons or the main reason really for Getting in short on the and buying the yen against the Canadian dollar is based off of again fundamental analysis so the main fundamentals being interest rates and the Bank of Japan is looking to Hike rates and continue hiking rates and the Canadian dollar is looking to cut rates So there is a big divergence there at the moment Yes, we've had over the past week or so, you know a bit of a pullback, but ultimately I'm hoping that we should roll over And of course the data needs to support the narrative now. I don't rest every necessary talk about stop hunts in the in this, you know in this Sunday video on on YouTube, but I thought I would go over this trade And so what it was was that we had a nice level a nice clear and accurate obvious high and then we got really the There was the on Monday the Bank of Japan ended up hiking rates and typically what happens with a Hike is that it's the central banks intention for The currency to appreciate but the market and I spoke about this last week Didn't Thought it was a dovish hike as there wasn't really any further market guidance if there was going to be any further rate hikes as Governor Ueda was a bit tight-lipped on that and so the market took that as a bit dovish And so you saw really a weakness in the yen and so I figured that you know that wouldn't continue on for too long and so With the Canadian dollar looking to potentially cut in June and the Bank of Japan still likely to Hike there was an opportunity to look for some short trades. And so that's what I was anticipating you know in in this In that analysis that I did around the time and then we've seen this bit pretty much play out now As we go into you know, this the stop hunt I entered at the 1 1 1 60 area and Also as well placed a pending order at the 50% area Entry as well as the 95 so I'm in on a market order, but also as well on top of that I've now just been entered today as I'm recording into another position Which you see right here at 1 1 1 9 5 So I'm in two positions now which offers me obviously a best a better risk reward And so I can kind of you know manage the trade as such So yeah, I'm in this trade to the short side and if the Canadian dollar which should the Bank of Canada should want to cut rates this at least come June and the Yen look to high crates at some point this year again Then that should want to push Prices to the downside and that's what I'm really anticipating and pretty much the same trade with the With the Euro yen, right? So the Euro yen. We had a nice level here And then we had a nice close price went above stopped everybody out came back inside I wanted to be a buyer here and Again, we've we're on our way a bit better bit more profit. We've got on the Euro yen And so and so yeah, that's really like the lower trader stop hunts one of the strategies I use in the toolbox of Strategies along with the fundamentals is obviously as well supply and demand and something called capture pain relief And if you are, you know interested in joining the mentorship and you've been waiting for a while I really only open maybe four to five times a year possibly Maybe a bit less Basically, I'm opening up the mentoring course and it's going to be on the second of April so tomorrow if you're watching this on the first and so Yeah, if you want to join pretty much I will open up tomorrow and you will get you know a lot of access to the information that I provide To the members as well as access to the fundamental analysis spreadsheet, which should keep you on the right side of the market more often than not and some other perks as well, so Yeah, we're opening up tomorrow, so and it'll be for a limited time as well, maybe a week or two depending on On on on the intake because I do want to keep the group quite small As it allows me to kind of focus on those traders that actually can get involved rather than having massive You know Classes where people are a bit all over the place so with that being said we can move on to the weekly analysis and Looking at the dollar index and I use the equally weighted dollar index, which again if you aren't familiar with that, I'll leave a On the top right-hand side, there should be a little pop-up and you can click on that and that basically explains why I am looking at the equally weighted dollar index rather than an index like the The usual dollar index the DXY or the USDX As I think this is a lot more accurate Anyways the dollar at the moment Fundamentally, I do think the dollar is coming to a bit of an end as far as the upside Potential for the dollar one of the main reasons although The headline is is talking about power reiterates that the Fed doesn't need to be in a hurry to cut rates and that the Fed Chief says PCE inflation data in line with expectations and says inflation will continue to ease on some on sometimes bumpy path Investors are still Betting that the US central bank will make that first cut in June and the overall message really hasn't changed too much Said for an o'clock an economist to sit group Inc It seems like February inflation data came in line with how they are expecting and that's in line with more Prince That they would be okay with so Inflation still coming down as expected although slowly and there will be you know potentially Bumpy path meaning that you could get you know, maybe some inflation readings that are You know, maybe a bit higher But ultimately the Federal Reserve are still the market is thinking that the Federal Reserve is still going to be cutting in June and that is kind of backed up by The CME the Fed watch tool if we look at go to June Look at the probabilities. It does look like they're still is a 63% chance of an ease in June So That does look still promising the odds are in your favor if you're looking for a cut and also as well the bond market is is Thinking that there could be some cuts right and inflation to stay higher, but They're you know, basically based off of federal Chairman Jerome Powell's comments There could be cuts coming based on Jobs right and so the headline is power juices bond market bet on inflation with tilt to jobs. So Although the bond market are thinking that inflation is likely to remain high It says here that where is it now? Sorry? I thought I had it here. Right. So it was right in front of me It was right here. So it says here that the Fed chief made clear last week that He's now no longer singularly focused on crushing inflation. He's signaled enough Progress has been made on that front. The annual core rate is down 2.8% from five point six two years ago to allow policy makers to accelerate the move toward interest rate cuts if the unemployment rate were to suddenly spike and so again the focus now He's basically saying is that if unemployment now starts to rise Then that could also now be the trigger. So before it was really kind of in he was really inflation focused but now he is Unemployment focus is adding labor into the mix. So very interesting So that's definitely something to watch when you're looking at the charts And so at the moment the dollar is on a bit on the on the high side in terms of it's an expensive Area, can it go higher? Of course it can if you are looking to buy the dollar continue to buy the dollar Then you're really looking for You know demand a pullback to at least a decent demands and before looking at going long or right now we are at a really nice area of Supply we do have FOMC Sorry, a non-farm payrolls this week And so if for example that comes out disappointing then we could actually Start to roll over as we are at this nice supply zone with the confluence of support and resistance. So Yeah, it's very interesting. My bias at the moment is still to go long dollars, but I Will change my mind once Employment data starts to go, you know starts to look like or unemployment data goes higher Employment data goes lower as well as inflation starts to come down So I do think that the really risk is more to the tilted to the downside Potentially, but I want the data to kind of confirm that that bias before I look for any kind of short dollars So looking at the The dollar yen and I guess the analysis from last week We can see that prices really hadn't moved anywhere and we are in a low volatile environment I know a lot of traders will be You know a bit frustrated at the moment with the way that price is moving We go from high to low volatile environments. It's just the nature of the markets So there's nothing we can do about it. So if you are in You know, you are swing trading and you're seeing that price has gone sideways for the past You know to two weeks It is what it is so Eventually we will either price will you go higher or lower? So My guess is that we are obviously a definitely an inflection point and so this nice decision point and Depending on what happens this week with the dollar if it's weaker data Then you're likely to see prices go to the downside of your stronger data You might see prices go to the upside but again, I still think towards the rest of the year We should see prices move to the downside overall as the yen I think the Bank of Japan are going to continue to high crates. So if I was looking at taking this pair Then I'm looking for more shorts than longs. He's in the short-term anyway Dollar CAD the Canadian dollar had some decent news this week with regards to their GDP and They came in better than expected So there is the potential for some downside But again, I do think that this level here is really susceptible to being stop-hunted as it levels been touched several times So if you are looking for shorts on the Canadian dollar I would wait for you for a stop-hunt if you know how to trade stop-hunts If not, then you're looking for a level Supply zone above that to get involved in a short if you are looking for any kind of long trades Then you can likely look for some sort of demand zone demand from down here And then look for some long trades into demand But it's not really a pair that I'm looking at at all and neither am I looking at the pound dollar I think the pound at the moment. There was some news out with regards to Traders betting that the Bank of England is more likely to start rate cuts than the Fed or the ECB So the odds of a quarter point cut in May are Doubled to those peers and see group favours betting on a rate cut at the next meeting So there is rumors buying the rumor said in the fact So the rumor is that the Bank of England could cut in May, although I don't think that is going to happen Traders are definitely positioning themselves for that but there has been some pushback on that and that was from Bank of England's man says markets pricing too many UK rate cuts this year So she is a hawk and so She's basically saying that the markets are wrong. So the UK central bank's most hawkish official has become a bit more dovish Man says the UK is unlikely to lead a global shift towards lower rates So It does look like it's a close race in terms of who is looking to cut first whether it's the Fed Whether it's the Bank of England or the European Central Bank I think it's going to be the European Central Bank are going to go first And the Bank of England may actually go last but it really depends on what happens with inflation But if inflation starts to come down more than expected Then I think the British pound and the Bank of England may actually start to and the market may start to price in Rate cut sooner, which would then lead to The pound dollar looking at going short. So let's see what happens here If you are looking for long trades, then I think any moves down into this zone Maybe even lower may be decent for a long trade But again, that would really be dependent upon the Federal reserve really maybe cutting first and the Bank of England cutting later Pound yen I think the pound yen is a short as well basically just for the fact that the Bank of Japan are really the The the the currency that are the only currency that are hiking In this environment and everyone else is looking to hold or cut rates and so Again, I would expect over the medium to long term prices to move to the downside Whether they do something like that or whether they do something like this They pull back a little bit and then go to the downside. I do think we've reached a bit of a high in terms of the The fundamentals, but again, nobody knows if if if inflation comes, you know down and inflation doesn't remain stubborn for the Japanese yen Then in fact the yen may hold for longer, which will then make it a lot weaker But the data has to support, you know the narrative of the Bank of Japan hiking rates But I do think that that is the path of these resistance If you're still looking to buy the pound against the yen then really prices coming down to this demand zone should be What you're looking for and then look for a buy trade within this zone And you've got a really nice area of support and resistance as confidence within that demand zone looking at the euro dollar And the euro dollar has come down and kind of broke through slightly the That zone there from last week I mean my bias would be to short the euro against the Against the dollar and we've really kind of seen that, you know play out And we're actually in this really wide zone of supply I'm not going to basically draw it all on. I'll just leave it there for now But I think if we do pull back to this zone or anywhere within this area here, I think that's going to be really nice for a short trade To the downsides Again, I don't really think that the The euro and again it does depend on the data But my bias would be to short the the euro versus the dollar now There is an opportunity to go long on the euro if this week data shows that the The power sorry the dollar is You know is a bit weak on the weak side and and unemployment Is looking to go Is is higher so Yeah, there is an opportunity to look for some some long trades, but again That I would probably wait for maybe the data to come out before looking at going long I've run when that has confirmation to go long on the Well short really the dollar I would say against the euro Euro yen again covered this already I do think that prices should be on its way down But if it does pull back a little bit that would offer a better price to get short And if you are looking for long trades, then you're really looking at a move to the upside From this demand zone here or slightly lower around there Euro pounds Euro pounds again, we did You know come down and I expect to put it out this week, but with the likes of the pound You know, there's a buy the rumors or sell the rumor A situation happening with the pound in terms of the fact that they could start to Cut in May then this could you know make the Euro pound move to the upside, but not really a pair. I'm interested in anymore There was actually a really nice stop hunt above This level here, which actually worked out as well I know one of the traders in the group ended up getting involved in this So there was a nice trade there Stop hunt and then to the downside now there could be A move to the upside, but If I'm looking to take this trade, it would have to be either up at these highs here Top of that supply zone or really down at these lows before looking at long trades. So Where we are now not interested, but I may be a little bit more interested Technically if this if these two scenarios start to play out But not for now, but those are really your options and the Aussie dollar I do think as the US dollar starts to Look like it's cutting rates in June I think the beneficiary of that is going to be the Australian dollar as they are one of the last central banks to cut rates. So I think a pullback You know a move Like this or like these should be decent for Long trades just based off of the dollar Looking to cut sooner And so there is an opportunity to look for some entries right here or look for trade at if prices do pull back A bit further and I like the Australian dollar at the moment And yeah, it's one of the trades one of the currencies that I'm bullish on this year Also, there was some actual news out of China. Let me see if I can Find it. I did have it Somewhere here Or maybe I closed it. Maybe I did close it anyways. It was talking about I think China PMIs Came in actually better than expected and any positive news that comes out of China should Help the Australian dollar to appreciate as The Australian economy or Australia is One of China's biggest trade partners So if China are growing then that would mean that the Australian economy also should grow as a beneficiary Therefore the Australian currency should Should strengthen and should appreciate And so my bias would be more upside than downside at the moment I do and it's going to start to position myself once I start to see the u.s. Dollar look to Cut rates sooner and then finally gold and gold making new highs, right We're looking for this pool works if we were looking for a pullback But I'll say in last week that there's the possibility of a pullback into that demand zone, which it, you know, it basically went from But again being confident on buying gold would be Have a definitely have a short bias on the On the on gold, but also as well gold There is some news gold jumps to record as favored fed inflation Gauge stokes rally to bullion Open second quarter with climb towards $2,270 an ounce and jp Morgan chase says the metal is its number one pick among among commodities And so he says here gold grows to a record as indications that the Federal Reserve is getting closer to cutting interest rates added impetus To a rally that is also being driven by geopolitical tensions and robust robust Chinese demand And so gold Just keeps making higher highs. There was an opportunity to get involved and a pullback there I think the next Area to look for any kind of buy trades is going to have to be again another pullback into that 2160s as I said, that's now looking like a nice bargain price. And that's really what demand zones are also to add to that Is that commodities will rally when the fed cut rates says in Vesco, so again The fundamentals are really telling us right, um, you know, what is likely to happen And I posted even though this article came out on the 26th of March In the group if you're going to be a part of this group, you'll get this information a lot sooner so if you scroll down to the Commodities channel, right and then go to the news. I posted basically an article From uh, it's from the Goldman Sachs basically says commodities to benefit essential banks cut rates, right? So pretty much in Vesco was saying that Goldman Sachs have been saying is copper aluminium and oil products forecast to see best returns and banks view echoes upbeat Outlook as a quiet kyle group. So again Commodities will advance this year essential banks in the us and europe move to reduce interest rates helping to support industrial and consumer demand According to Goldman Sachs So you've got in Vesco on one hand and you've got Goldman Sachs all talking about the rate cuts Helping commodity prices and this is you know, what you really need to understand when it comes to fundamental analysis is that You know, there's no price chart. That's going to tell you this, right? It don't care what, you know, you You you say it was just a 50 50 guess if you get it, right? But ultimately you want The banks and the smart money And the smartest minds, you know As as compliance with your trade idea, right and with your technicals And if they're saying this of course, they could be wrong But ultimately, you know, you want a better than 50 50 chance And if these guys are saying this and it makes all the sense in the world Then why wouldn't you then just look for Long commodity prices as it starts to you know play out. So yeah, that's basically what's happening and um Yeah, really nice and that area actually was a decent area of support and resistance as well. So Nice area, but again, it had to kind of create this demand zone before, you know, entering in and around his zone. So Really nice Play to the upside. There was the potential for a stop hunt Above the area, but the stop hunt just didn't play out So I did say that into the group that there could be the potential for prices to stop hunt around here But again, there wasn't an entry which means there was no trade, which means that no one would have lost any trades Or which means any any money. Um, but that would have been a play based off of really, um, you know You thinking that the the dollar was really going to rally but again going back to the dollar index You would have had to have been really buying the dollar at highs Which you don't really want to do right you want to buy the the dollar when it's low buy low and sell high So, um, in order for you to buy gold It's important for at least the dollar index to be, you know, to have pulled back to some degree and then You know, if the dollar's cheap and gold is expensive, that's a better setup. You know when you have the dollar is expensive Right, uh, and gold is expensive. It's it's a harder trade or a harder It's harder to kind of predict or forecast, um, which one is going to win out in the end, right? So ultimately you want them to both diverge you want one to be cheap or one to be expensive And then that's a better trade or that is a better setup. Anyway, but um, but yeah, I think, um, it does look like as The central banks are being cutting or will be cutting in june into, you know, the rest of the year commodity prices should rise so pretty much any pullbacks into demand zones should be Buying opportunities not financial advice, of course anyways, guys, hope you enjoyed the analysis and Again, if you want to join the trading 180 Mentoring group and really take your trading to the next level. Um, we are open on the second of april So, uh, yep, that's it. Hope you have a great trading week. Take care and speak to you soon