 The following is a presentation of TFNN Trade what you see With Larry Pezzavento All now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 Larry Pezzavento Okay, looking good Billy Ray feeling good Lewis We're going to start the show with an announcement and that is that we have Shane Smollion as our guests at the half hour We're closed Thursday and Friday here at TFN, but we'll be back on Monday and hopefully we're gonna have Tim Bost as our guest on Monday to start out the last week of November getting ready to move into Christmas time now I posted a chart the first one today folks is The chart from mr. Z when he bought coffee a few weeks ago. You can see where it is now It's just going you know ballistic to the upside You know he follows the weather and all the technical patterns and those are the kind of information that you get when you're a den Member here, but you know, it's just really a move. That's just just that's really a heck of a move And the risk there was so small the key there is you'll notice that 61% retracement how it went through it like it Didn't even exist You know, that's the main thing that you got to remember that these patterns when they fail and when they fail They're going up quite a bit I've got a few charts to cover and then I wanted a people have asked me to walk through The Euro situation and also the crude oil I'll be happy to do that But I do want to share with you a few charts sent to us by some of our friends this one happens to be from our friend over hold on one second in just a second over there and Cairo and Hold on one second. We'll get this up here. Now. This is the platinum chart. He's in the platinum business plus He's a speculative trader. This happens to be the NASDAQ. I'm sorry to say that this is the one I wanted to bring up He's a platinum trader, but he's also he does the NASDAQ also Anyway, you'll notice here what he's watching here at these parallel lines here And remember this is a daily chart. So it's broken through that line I'm going to walk through this to show you what I think is happening We went up. We made a new high as you can see and then we've had this big reversal That's dropped quite a bit now Here's all I want to do is I want to show you what I'm looking at from my perspective Looking at just only Fibonacci numbers and the simple stuff that that I that I follow because I believe that Simplicity Trump's I hate to use that word. Yeah, I guess I guess it's okay. It It overshadows What do we call it? Complexity all right here is the NASDAQ folks as the high was made we talked about this the first 382 was up there at 16600 last night boys and girls last night to the tick it hit the exact 382 again That's the third time. It's done it 16358 and then we've come down a little bit now. Why did it stop? Right where it stopped today. Well, if you did anything if any work with the floor traders handbook You would be able to know that what it was doing and remember this This is the day before the day after the holiday black Friday is the most positive Update in the stock market. It's up better than 75% of the time over a hundred and some years folks When it's not up on the day before the day after Thanksgiving look out Monday morning Because that puppy is going to come down. So it's got you're looking at Friday should be an update It's only half a day, but by golly. It has a lot of statistics behind it now if you'll look at that Chart that I just saw you notice we took out the low of the previous day now We didn't do it in the Dow all the Dow did this morning was make a 61% retracement of the low We made on Tuesday. That's all it did and all of the S&P did it came down made a 78% Retracement of that. So there was a big divergence there when the Nasdaq was making that low now Hold on just a second. Someone's asking a question. Yeah, the Monday is a down day after Thanksgiving for many years That's what the real key there, mr. Bill is if that if it's not an update on the day after Thanksgiving that half a day Then that means that Monday will probably be down But remember we're we're still in a long-term uptrend short-term downtrend So you could flip a coin on that That's why we try to rely on the patterns of what we're what we're paying attention to so let's Let's be ready Monday. I think that we're gonna have some real we're gonna have great volatility in 2022 I think it's gonna pale what we've seen in 2021 but we'll do you know one thing at a time now here's something that I did want to walk through and that is About the euro. Let me get this up here. I probably had five emails about this And I want to get this up here to bring it up to your attention here Okay, here's where we were back on the 11th of November You'll see we had a really beautiful three drive to a bottom pattern And it was it was setting right there at the 50% level on the euro Our recommendation was to buy it at 1414 61 and to get out of it in 1446 and this is a four-hour chart folks So when you're seeing that key time there that is a day and a half in other words a day and a half The reason why I bring this up to you is the fact that look at this You have a beautiful three drive to a bottom pattern and you make this really tiny quiet rally over a Two and a half day period basically and it doesn't even make any type of a ratio Look what happened folks when it broke now the reason why I'm bringing it to your attention is because several people You know drop me emails and say what do we do? What do we do and all I said hey look it's a hundred and fifty dollar risk You know I'm leaving my stop in because it could reverse at any moment And of course about a minute after I sent the email out the market collapsed and has continued to go down There's nothing wrong with that now the reason why I'm trying to give you this information here right now Is because this particular pattern just like this was one of the things when I went to Chicago Back in 1982 to trade on the exchange Barry Lynn said what can I do to make your? You know stay here in Chicago more more profitable and fun I said look if I've got it if I've got a Loss at the end of the third day just take me out Don't even don't even ask me to cover the position just have the the computer You know send it down to the pit and get me out Well happened four or five times over my period of time there in Chicago those three years But they think that the river is these patterns when they work folks they flat work right away Perfect example was gold when it hit that you know 18 79 78 percent level same thing in the in the crude oil We'll cover that in just a minute when we hit $75 a barrel Yesterday in the crude oil so all of those they usually work right away So if you're in a trade and it just keeps going sideways get very nervous Because these things usually work right away. That's the key to what we're looking at now As you can see here the market's coming down here We were below the 120 level now or 112 level and so we're expecting a bottom coming in here And also around the first of the year is when these currencies have major major implications for you know highs and lows So we're looking for a lower a beautiful ABCD pattern down here I think it's down around 111 and that's all I'm looking at the other reason is is after we broke that level The dollar index just kept going up and up and up and it's it got 96 9680 I think we've hit today folks, you know We were looking at it at 382 at 96 You know you can't stand in front of these puppies, you know That's that's the bottom line and and that's what patterns are for when they don't work get out Hey, let's take a break eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life Before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts You might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices Selective stocks and commodities Subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave The Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns Finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day First time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied Let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors What's separating you from the most successful men and women on Wall Street? 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To 4 p.m.. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the World from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help You make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's YouTube channel and become the Investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors Call now toll free at 1 877-927-6648 Internationally at 727-873-7618 Okay, folks. I've been asked to walk through that trade we did this week in the crude oil The first chart I posted as you can see was a beautiful abcd pattern on the daily chart You can see it quite clearly AB does equal CD. You'll see the retracement number comes in there right around 70 right at $75 a barrel and All I did was I said, okay Let's take a look at this thing to see where we could get the best possible entry. That was a second chart Which was the 1 3 5 pattern. That's where you have higher bottoms That's the one we got from Roy Long Street in his son bill You got the first ones are your 618 the second one could either be 618 or 786 This particular time in the crude oil it was right at the 78 percent level and then of course the announcement came out They were going to release oil from the stockpile, which would ordinarily be considered as bearish But for some reason the mark considered it as being bullish and we had a strong rally now The $64 question is where to take profits that leads to question number two Stop and think folks. You bought something at 75 60 the lowest 75 32 okay, so you're out a couple hundred bucks now you're up three grand Okay, now first of all you're coming into a holiday. Alright, that's question number two question number three Is are you at any major ratios up here at that 78 60 level and the answer is yes You're at a 78 percent retracement of the previous move You're at a 1.618 expansion of the move of Monday and Tuesday and here you I have a weekend coming up So we suggested that you take the profits at that book to $3,000 and move on to that level now That that I'm just telling you like it is So I just want to give you the you know the skinny of what I think is happening now the next question Someone asked is why do I? Bring somebody I posted the YouTube thing one hour YouTube from Larry Williams on his trading Trader lion that he was on the other day the reason I'm not promoting Larry Williams He happens to be a friend and by gosh if I would promote him He's one of the people that I would promote that guy's given so much to this business with the mechanical systems that he's has and all the Information that he's that he's given us and he's in a super trader. Oh my god this guy He's for real boys and girls trust me on this one Anyway in that I did it for two reasons one There was something in that video that just he if you noticed that when some of the guy said Do you ever average losses and Larry got very emphatic and he started laughing and put his hands up in the air? He said oh my god He said that's the absolute dumbest thing you can do and that was one of the reasons why I sent the YouTube out there Is because the way he reacted to it that painting behind my my wall number two is never never add to a losing position Number one is when in doubt get out and so that's that's what you know Disimple you know simple things just common sense things right out of the Reminiscences of a stock operator in the work in the work by Bernard Baruch in my own story If you don't know what the hell you're doing get out of there and believe me I'm there half the time so I'm staying there not doing very much when I see something to do Then I'm going to do it but that's it the other thing than that in that video that was very important He mentioned because it's been in the news over 50 40 years ago was during that crash of 1987 and time preceding that Larry had an account and I happened to know where it was Where it was stationed that account in fact I happened to know the broker that was involved in that account and Larry ran a hundred grand up to 2.2 million Okay, and in two days he ran the 2.2 million down to $775,000 Okay, then that the account was closed with a six hundred and seventy five thousand dollar profit The guy left twenty five grand in the account Okay, cuz cuz he was going to a start again at twenty five thousand dollars. Well what Larry didn't tell you I Don't even know if I should tell you Anyway, he ran that twenty five grand up a lot Because it was right during the time of the crash and he happened to be long bonds And it had a heck of a run and he's like Tom who guard, you know if he buys something and it goes up He doesn't even think is selling it if he's right he buys more He just keeps pyramid and pyramid until it's till it's wrong and then he'll he'll give back thirty forty fifty percent of what he's made But many times, you know, it just keeps going and that's what he does. He presses. There's nothing wrong with that I don't do that style of trading. I did it a few times in my career pretty good But frankly, it's it's a little nerve-wracking and that's not what I'm about anymore I'm about looking at really low-risk trades and you know trying to set them up so that I don't have to risk very much So that's why I send that stuff out the video. It's not to promote him even though I would You know, so I he just got some great information I would do it for for anybody. Also, he mentioned he mentioned the the painting with Steve With Steve Cohen I happened to have Steve as a guest here a few years ago We had a mutual friend and he was in the area and he came over to visit me just to say hello And he ended up spending the the whole day with me had a great time a super nice guy great personality as Humble as you can possibly get but boy is he intense when he trades for the way. He thinks it's just it's really amazing He thinks in terms of when we talk about this all the time is how much do I have to see if I'm right? And that's exactly how he thinks Anyway, let's move on to a couple of things we we should cover here. We got Shane Smollion coming up Let's look take a look here at the German Dax. You'll see here that it's also had a pretty stiff Correction here these last couple of days here. This is just an hourly chart. You see we've broken down now We did stop this morning at the 61 percent retracement of that low Back on November the 5th, but frankly it's with that strength down It pretends more of a movement to the downside as what I'm looking at right here So we'll next what we're going to look at here is the German Dax. We'll get this up here It's been stronger as you can see and it's had a little bit of a countertrend bounce today now folks I'm going to give you my two cents worth and for what it's worth. All right There have been a little under six million people have died of COVID out of seven point three billion folks That is not a pandemic That is a bad case of the flu and I know it's bad and if you've lost a family member My sympathy goes out to you, but when they're locking down these countries like this like Austria and probably Germany coming up next That's baloney and for the German Health Minister to say the only people that are going to be be around And those that have taken the the vaccine or the people that have died I mean for him to say something like that give me a break, you know, I'm sorry But you know, there's just numbers, you know 30 40 50 stop I'm off myself box boys and girls. I want to wish everybody a wonderful Thanksgiving But anyway, that's it. Yeah I just but I've just been reminded by my CIO my my CEO that no politics Okay, let's move on here to the next one here that anybody has any question here Ah Say it's about Seiros Larry large Larry large traders say it's all about seros. What is your opinion? I don't know what that means of ruby What do you mean about seros? I don't see ero. You mean euros. Is that what you're saying? No, I don't know what that word seros is euros. No, no, I don't know anything about that the euro The euro is the largest traded thing in the world folks. I mean that's got it. They traded trillion dollars I've been in these I've been in these trading rooms of these city bank and Over in it's with credit Swiss and Switzerland I've been over the London and I've been in those large trading things over the moral securities in London and believe me They they do. Oh my god, trillion dollars a year in euros. I'll I'll I'll be right back Shane small you'll be our guest Are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with Become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tigers Den trading room only at tfnn.com The Tigers Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas Join the den and surround yourself with these sharpest minds in the trading world Subscribers to the Tigers Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our Tfnn hosts live during their shows interact with other Tigers and Tigers's as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day Subscribe to the Tigers Den risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee and become part of the tfnn trading community tfnn educating investors You could be making money off the stock market and if you're already making money off the stock market You could be making a lot more Check out tfnn and Tiger TV and get expert investing advice to give you the power to control your financial future Go to tfnn.com and find the newsletter for you whether you're into trading gold metals futures Currencies or options you'll get advice and analysis to help you seriously get ahead tfnn also features trading services with a 30-day money-back guarantee for new subscribers as well as tfnn's Tiger Den trading room trading software and educational webinars for all trading levels and make sure you check out Tiger TV for free on tfnn.com or tfnn's YouTube channel for live financial content from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern on market days stop watching on the sidelines while other people get rich and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors tfnn is excited about our new software charting program the art of timing the trade charts in Collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any traders methodology Using this first-of-its-kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci Formation setups including Gartley's ABC's Butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when Scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months Searching to find and right now. 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I'm still living the dream, baby on the green side of the grass keeping that dream alive That's way to be well first of all happy Thanksgiving to you and everybody I hope everybody's having safe travels today, and we've got this light volume shortened holiday week so I'm gonna talk today about the about few a few markets, but I want to start out talking about The concept of the portfolio so one of the things that I think is important with with Markets is to diversify your positions, but on not only diversify your positions have different trading systems diversified So we have multiple trading systems that we use here at Wolf trader Ranging from Fed juice to dollar juice to double lunar cycles So what I've done in the recent weeks is we have enough data now published data That we can actually put this together now and create what I call portfolios of trading systems now Most of the time when you think of a portfolio you think of hey, I'm gonna be long You know XYZ stock broadcom Tesla Caterpillar whatever most of the time it's long positions, but what this is this is gonna be a Look at a portfolio of a trading systems, which is always going to be long and short positions Much like a portfolio. This is not gonna have targets or stops But you're going to smooth out the profit curve and reduce your risk by having multiple positions trading small and diversifying so this is the core of of a portfolio and So I want everybody to think of a portfolio as as a unit like one thing and when you get a portfolio Many times the whole is greater than the parts So instead of just looking at one trade or one symbol We're gonna look at how they all do together and because it's it's always in These positions can hedge against each other. So this is gonna be an example. I talked about this in the web on our last Saturday But this is gonna be if we looked at all of the Fed juices on a portfolio What would it look like if you took every trade long and short? On the the Fed uses so the first one that I'm gonna look at here. This is gonna be copper This is this is the performance of copper across time going back to about almost two years ago I doesn't look that impressive. There's a first part here where it falls low and then it spikes up here later on But it in of itself. It doesn't look that impressive, but when we start to look at other symbols When we start to look at silver, this is the silver Fed use silver Fed used did a very different for a profit profile This one shoots up in the beginning and then kind of runs flat So the interesting thing about this is they're making money at different times. So this is what we want to see with a portfolio We want to see them Performing different at different times when you look at gold the Fed use of gold is the best Fed use performing If you took every long and short trade, this is how it has done Based upon all of our published data now I'm gonna take all of these together and create what I call a portfolio And if you look at this across a quarterly view here This is what you get you get a much more smooth curve If we look at this across a monthly, this is what you see if you look at this across a weekly This is what you see and if you look at this across a daily chart, this is what you get So by combining these different trading systems together You get a much smoother looking profit graph and and then we can actually analyze the statistics of the portfolio So this is really the end game of where I've been going with all of this Why we have all these different trading systems because now we're going to be able to talk about portfolios Like if you combine these trading systems, this is what they've done and we can we can give You know very detailed statistics about how they did Different ratios. I mean everything you would want to see We'll be able to be here. So this is a very interesting Step that we're moving towards now with these trading systems And what this does is this allows people to combine them together to say hey If I put these three together these Fed uses together, this is how it does Now Larry, you know that we've been looking at the double lunar cycle This is a relatively new system. We have about eight or nine months of data on it But I just want to kind of go through this just to show Another example if you combine these different systems together, what does it look like when you get a portfolio? So the first one here, this is the s&p 500 this is the double lunar cycle here This is a long short trading system And you can see there is a pretty big drawdown here going back into this like early september But then it makes it back up. So when you look at just one system You can get this volatility, but if we look at bitcoin We see a much cleaner curve, but the drawdown comes at a different time It actually comes early in the system here, which is what we want to see We don't want to see them having drawdowns at the same time The 10-year bond is also similar to bitcoin a little bit. We had a drawdown here But keep in mind these are all published signals. This is what we publish in the newsletter This is what comes in the newsletter. So this is not a hypothetical You know scenario or back test. This is what we published and so this is why I want to focus on this So if you put these together, this is what it looks like on the quarterly. This is what it looks like on the monthly Weekly and then the daily so you can see that when you combine the different systems together You get a much smoother looking curve here And so to me, this is the ultimate ideal situation by taking multiple systems combining them together creating a portfolio So you get a smoother situation. So this is more for Just kind of a longer term outlook not so much short term trades where you're trying to find support and resistance But it just creating to taking these systems together and saying hey Well, what would this look like if I put all these together and I took every single position? That's that's what it would look like. So I just wanted to start out with that because we're moving in this direction My vision is to have multiple portfolios So there could be 20 different portfolio combinations that you could look at on the site Say if I combine these systems, how did they do across time? This is the actual history the published history of these systems So this is something that I think is really important It's a different way to look at the market from just doing small small trades We're you know buying from support resistance, but nonetheless I think this is a powerful tool Uh, and these trades last anywhere from three to five days. So this these are longer term swing trades These are not very short in and out type of trades. So Anyway, I just wanted to start out with that just to kind of share that with the viewers That that's something that's going on and I think that's really the future in terms of reducing volatility and coming up with Situations where if you're not sure about what particular trade to take on what day if you just took all the trades This is how it would look. So Hopefully that's clear with how I put that up there. So Yeah, it's a very good very good portfolio analysis I think you're spot on there and not only that but when you're doing that You're diverse is diversifying your risk over a whole lot of different things and that's the whole key to being successful So I think that's a no-brainer for you Yeah, and there's there's different ways to control risk. You can have tight stops. You can trade smaller positions You can trade options or you can diversify and trade small, which is what this is This is why I like this. You could also apply this to ETFs Um, for example, this is s and s and p bitcoin and z in this could be the spy This could be the new bitcoin etf and this could also be the tlt. So the beautiful thing about Etfs and stocks is that you could trade one share or five shares or 10 shares or whatever it is Because they don't have there's no more commissions if you look at a lot of these big brokers now They don't even charge you commissions for for the small etf So this is why I think it's exciting and you can really start small with this and just kind of follow it across time But so far they're doing very well and and and they should average out. That's the whole point of this You can't expect any one trading system to be Perfect all the time but by diversifying this is this is the basic idea here Okay, folks, we take a break here. We'll be back with Shane Smollion the wolf trader calm. We'll be right back folks Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area? Including the surrounding st. 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If you trade china a shares now may be time to take a closer look trade chau or chad Directions daily csi 300 china a share bull and bear etf's china a shares in either direction Visit direction investments.com today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus Please contact direction shares at eight six six four seven six seven five two three The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk Including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four-side fund services LLC Don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day Go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv That's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv Okay, we're back folks. We're talking with shane smoking the wolf trader dot com shane We have a question from one of our listeners in georgia And the question is how long do the effects of this big eclipse a lunar eclipse that we had on the 19th How long does that effect last? We will get there larry. We're gonna get there in the next in the next few slides. It's it's probably for a couple more days I'll I'll get into that and that's a very good question. I think everybody wants to know that It was very impressive that the market declined on a holiday week I mean usually that doesn't happen, but the fed taper. I just want to go into this very quickly There is a taper coming. It's actually started already They're reducing the bond purchases and the mortgage back securities This is going to be continuing probably until late June so the thing about this is that this is taking the fuel away from the fed Uh, this is causing the fed internals to already start to plunge I'm going to show you that in another chart And each month that this occurs the chokehold is going to become more and more on this s and p This is a cumulative effect And um, like I said, they they're doing about 10 10 billion of treasury cutback five billion of mortgage back security So as they start to choke back on this the market's going to really start to feel the headwinds Uh, your question your call are called in about the lunar eclipse. I talked earlier on your show about this This was the longest lasting eclipse in over in centuries Uh, and it occurred on your descendant on my ascendant But eclipses tend to be attractors before and a negative after and that's exactly what happened The market rally is almost exactly up. Uh, there's no fed overnight When the market when we hit this eclipse and then the market plummets right after of course There was all all these different types of oscillations that occurred but To answer the question of the caller, this is what it should look like now I I held this information back on your show because this was for subscribers But we're pretty much done with this path now The eclipse was on the 19th and pretty much for about five days or so after five to six days it declines So the the the low is projected to be probably around tomorrow, which is a market holiday But uh, you know that it did it was pretty impressive that it actually played out this week Because this is usually a light volume week. It's usually positive And the fed has a very strong hand on light volume days and light volume weeks They can really have a very powerful influence Now when we talk about the smp 500, I'm going to give you a summary here This is just how I see the market everybody has a different vantage point, but this is just how I see it So just keep that in mind. This is my perspective. I'm following data and evidence This is not just a feeling that I have or or whatever. This is I follow the data And through a very scientific process So based upon the data the fed internals the s&p's in a bear market And I'm going to explain to you what that means Uh, some people might say how can you say that the s&p rallied? I'm going to show you why because What I like to focus on here is the evidence not what I think is going to happen not what could happen The short term bluff that we saw from the october lows is over I talked about that in a An update video or a seminar that this was a bluff They the fed just slammed this back up on the short term. Okay. Now the fed taper is here And it's a cumulative chokehold. It's going to be cumulative each month It's going to continue to cut down each more and more each month and the fed internals are of course sinking That's the biggest thing that we have to look at with the s&p. That's what I look at. That's how I determine This is a bear market. So the s&p is now facing headwinds And the selling in bear markets is swift and decisive. So understand that that The selling can come very quickly. We saw that in the last couple of days We saw some really strong intraday spikes, but that's I think that's really just the the warm-up here Because price is making such a strong negative diversions with the sinking internals I think the selling will appear to come out of quote-unquote nowhere, but in reality, it's been eroding under the surface. So What i'm going to do here is i'm going to show you the chart of the internals here Now this is the key data that we follow for what I consider to be the bear market I think the bear market starts back here and I talked about this and I know Look, everybody's got different opinions and definitions But my definition is based upon what is going on here with the fed and the internals And this is when they really start to pull back now. You can see there's a channel here. There's an upper channel There's a lower channel and the fed internals are staying within this channel now. We start to get this first sell-off here Then the fed responds very quickly here And then we come into this next low and they keep responding There's a market holiday here where there's no fed use the market starts to fall Then they slam it back up. We have Record intraday highs into here You can't see it because there's a zero right because they had to come back from nothing But then they start to decline again here and my my theory here was look If this is really declining as it should be with the taper coming This upper channel is going to hold and they're going to start to pull back And I and that's what they did. So they pull back here. There's another banking holiday Um notice the market comes down it pauses again And then they shoot it back up again one more time But notice they're staying within the constraints of this channel because there's a taper coming now So their playbook is shrinking. I'm not the playbook is shrinking But the ammunition is shrinking because that the fuel which is uh, you know the the these bond purchases and all of all of this Stimulus is decreasing now with the taper. Uh, so we're starting to see this divergence form now Where you're getting this divergence and the internals down and you're starting to see the market now start to come down Now it is a market holiday. It's like volume This thing moves all over the board on a light holiday But the main thing that I focus on by keeping my eye on the ball here is this this is this is the big story right now Because this chokehold is going to continue to get deeper and deeper as the uh taper begins So, you know this to me, this is a serious thing. I mean, I I don't I don't see the fed internals continuing to go higher Uh, I said that back here. I said this was temporary short term strength They did a good job of getting this off the lows Congratulations to them But the the point is the market can't do anything without the fed and this has been my thesis since 2009 I follow this stuff. I track it going back It's there's never been a time where the fed internals pull back and the market keeps going up That just doesn't happen since 2009 and so this is why I'm I'm just urging caution to everybody that this is a time to be careful Just be careful Okay, don't assume that this is the same situation that we saw back in the summer because it's not You know or before before they start pulling back This is a totally different situation right here and I think people need to be careful I mean and that's my my biggest thing I'm just trying to get the word out the people that things are not always as they seem Things are not always as good as they seem and we need to be extra careful now With this s and p. Here's another look at this on a different chart Showing the channel again, but again this the fed internals are starting They've been declining and on the short term. They are starting to roll over I do think we're in a bear market and I think the selling is going to come very quickly when it's does start to come And it's going to take people by surprise. And so I just want everybody to be careful out there That's my my biggest word. You don't have to be short, but you don't have to be overexposed to the long side either So that that's my basic word here about the s and p Well, that's certainly concise and right on the point as near as I can tell because uh I'm seeing things that absolutely scare me and I'm fearless. So Well, we'll see but you know, we look at these stocks are so far up in the air The thing is if there's really nobody out there on the tubes warning anybody I mean, usually there's two or three Seuss sayers out there. I guess they've given up and nobody's watching it anymore But this is where you can see Volatility lists literally explode and I don't mean to the upside. We've already seen the explosion on the upside There could be some pockets of uh illiquidity coming and I don't know if that's what you're seeing here But that's what I'm seeing. I I think that's possibly having and especially in the cryptocurrencies You know, I look at these charts don't know anything about the cryptocurrencies, but I do know charts Can you stay with us for another minute or so? Mr. Shane? We'll be right back folks. Shane Smolian wolf trader dot com Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis And it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv Live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts to help You make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor You were born to be tfnn educating investors You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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I do feel though that the s and p is There's look Let me just let me just summarize it like this. Let me simplify it for everybody. We don't need Cycles, we don't need any of this astro stuff All we need is for the fed to pull back on the market will fall and the feds pulling back So I'll just leave it at that. I mean that that it is going to happen the taper like this is the thing I feel these are facts. This is evidence the fed is the taper is here It is pulling back internals are falling that bluff that we saw in october is over So there's not one time when the market has gone against the fed since 2009. So I'll just leave it at that But I I feel very strongly that we are in a bear market. So I don't want to ruin people's holidays with with such strong No, no, you can't you can't ruin the holidays my friend the other question we have from the same listener Is with the fact that the young lady is now going to be a vice chairman bernard It will that affect any of the policies that are going on is pal running the show And she came in they put her in as the vice chair and they took her out of a regulatory position I think the mark the banks like that because she's more she she's more into banking regulation Her she's not so much a slam dunk pal was a slam dunk. I think that was the right choice from the beginning I don't know why it took them so long to do that. He was the right choice Uh, but bernard is she's a little more controversial. She's donated. She's donated to political campaigns I believe it was hillary clinton. She's so a lot of times senators. They don't like to see that So she you know her her nomination is not a lock But they took her off of the regulatory committee, which is I think what the banks wanted to see That's why there was a sigh of relief about that But um, you know, she she is more into banking regulation and the banks don't like that I mean, so I think it's kind of the best compromise between between both of them to put her in as the vice chair But she's she's a little more controversial Hey Shane, happy Thanksgiving to you and your family and my friend and we'll see you next time on TFNN live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may god bless. Goodbye folks