 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network You more games in the NBA playoffs for tonight. They keep on pumping out three game slates. I am very into that We got three more fun ones coming up on the docket for tonight a couple or three game threes all here And we're gonna break them down with Austin Swain We're gonna get his thoughts on all three of those games And if we've got Austin here might as well talk some UFC for this weekend as well We'll break it all down with Austin right now This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire com My name is Jim Saunders. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire Joined here as mentioned by Austin swain checking out on twitter at a swain 3 you can find his work Over at number fire com often the NBA playoffs are chugging along ufc this weekend as well. How you doing today? I'm doing phenomenal because you didn't even mention. We've also got stanley cup playoffs right now We got nascar talladega this weekend. It is one of those sneaky loaded times of the year on the sports calendar It's weird This has always been my favorite part of the year because when I was growing up I was a huge like nfl draft nerd. I still like it. I just don't like publicly like talk about it as much But like I love the draft. You got the Kentucky Derby. It's kind of like a fun event for the day You've got just kind of everything cooking all at once so Underrated part of the calendar. I would say like this might be a bad take and that's okay I like this more than March Madness this time of year. Is that bad? No, I don't think that's a bad take. I think that's an acceptable take like I have equal joy in my hearts I have more attachment to this from when I was a child because it meant school was almost over So that's that was my reasoning. We got the Indy 500 coming up coke 600 monaco coming up part of the reason I don't care as much about march is because of school alignments Wasn't a huge factor for me in that range, but still fun time of year So we'll talk about the nba and the usc side of things for today with austin getting his read on all three mba games before we break down the usc this weekend But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast If you like what you hear me was a five star rating But also check us out over on the fan dual youtube page if you want to watch And uh, check out over there just search for the faddle youtube page Subscribe over there and if you like it hit the thumbs up button there as well The nba playoffs are here and you can get in on the action right from first tip with faddle Right now all customers can get a no sweat same game parlay every weekend when you bet the nba playoffs That's right. Just place a three plus leg same game parlay or same game parlay plus on any nba playoff game You'll get bonus bets back if you don't win There's no better place to bet all the playoff action than america's number one sports book Head to the faddle app and get a no sweat same game parlay every weekend of the nba playoffs faddle official sports betting partner of the nba Must be 21 plus and president select states faddle is offering online sports waging in kansas under an agreement With the kansas star casino llc Bonus issued is not with probable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook dot faddle dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Over the faddle dot com slash rg in massachusetts. Hope is here gambling help lie down a dot org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support In new york 1 8 7 7 8 hope and wire text open lie in arizona 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in connecticut 1 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 over the cc pg dot org slash chat in indiana 1 809 with it in wyoming in kansas 1 805 2 2 40 700 or in kansas ks gambling help dot com louisiana is 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop In maryland md gambling health dot org and in west virginia go to 1 800 gambler dot net Let's dig in now to the mba 4 2 night awesome Let's start things off with the first game that is the 76ers at the net 76ers here 4 and a half point favorites total is 2 10 right now philadelphia is up 2 0 in the series looking at game for 3 austin anything you like on the board at faddle right now uh So you know this line weirds me out it's one of those lines and you can get these where they kind of smell a little bit fishy When you look at brooklyn they have just been destroyed in two games in philadelphia and they're only getting four and a half points at home here It's one of those things that doesn't sit right But we see this anecdotally in sports every year in the seven game playoff series I'm gung ho effort in game three or game four just you know to avoid the sweep a team that is overmatched Just like brooklyn is in brooklyn if they had a whole season with this group They probably would not have been a playoff team that a negative net rating when you look at Post deadline after they traded kevindor and kairi erving and brought in the new pieces With no official action I do kind of have a lead toward that net spread for that reason that they put together a good effort in brooklyn until it happens I I do think they've significantly underperformed at least defensively in this series 114.7 defensive rating in the regular season It's 119.9 in the playoffs and you know playoff basketball is different The stars on philadelphia do shine through But I expect them to put together one of these lockdown efforts. We've got a low gritty total here at 209 and a half So I have a lean to the net spread. I don't have any official action on this game And just because all my stuff is pointing toward philadelphia, but it just does not smell right When you look at the first two games, is it match up problems? What has led to the the 76ers handling things so well and what makes you think that will change here in game three Well, so well, so really brooklyn is just having a tremendous amount of time scoring outside of mckell bridges And we saw more double teams in game two. They don't really have a guy that can reliably put them all in the basket They're offensive ratings sitting around a hundred. So They that the role players typically shoot better at home. So that could help guys like joe harris like seth curry They've they've really underperformed on open three point shots as well in the series um Like I don't think that they have the offensive talent to regularly threaten the sixers because they are very quality defense as well But one of these games i'm expecting brooklyn's defense to shine back through probably at home with that home crowd energy Um, and then just make a few more shots to keep it close with philadelphia I don't I don't know if they take this one, but I do like the points given that we're over that magic number three So it sounds like to you the thought process is they're getting open shots They just haven't nailed them and over a longer term you expect open shots to go down And they haven't yet So that could imply there's value on the nets here at plus four and a half Get 96ers as you said not a full bet for you not one you have bet yourself But uh lean towards the nets in that first game between them and the 76ers Second game for tonight is the kings and the warriors spread is six total creeping up here It's 240 of course the big headline here is no draymond green democracy bonus will be good to go for this one What's the impact to you of no draymond and are there any Value bets to you in this game whether it be because of his absence or otherwise So I I got this over at 239 and a half. I still love it at 240 That is the biggest effect without draymond is that the warriors really they don't play much defense without them They have a 118.8 defensive rating which would have been the second worst League mark in the league this year and you had half of the league actively tanking toward the end of the season So the warriors are definitely trying they've been trying to get into this play And they just aren't very good without draymond on the floor. He's one of the best defenders ever, of course I'm not Breaking news there, but I have a lean toward warriors minus five and a half here It's just really tough to overcome the metrics that you look without green They have a plus 6.9 net rating with him. Everything is great minus 5.6 net rating without him So I'm a little scared of the top side, but I do love the total given that this is the fastest pace in the playoff so far Um, great golden states defense as I mentioned is awful without draymond And the kings have the worst defense adjusted defensive efficiency in the playoffs of anybody to begin with So this is as close as you can get to a kind of a regular season defensive environment in the playoffs That that is trending up and there's a big difference between the warriors on the road and at home We've seen that they won 11 road games all year. They won 33 at home I don't know where to draw the line about how draymond's absence Affects that part and I think this line is pretty efficient. I only have kind of a lean toward thinking the warriors get it done Convincingly, but I love the over here Yeah, the total again 240 minus 110 on me over there Warriors money line minus 250 the spread is minus six there for golden state now. We talked earlier in the year I think it was around the trade deadline and you were skeptical at that time of the king So are you surprised to see what they've done so far through two games? No, because um, I I saw that more as sacramento potentially pulling back in the regular season and then falling into a playout play-in scenario They got the ideal matchup in my opinion for them in round one with golden state because of golden states issues Especially defensively on the road. I would have expected two games in sacramento's building We've seen the environment there through two games to be look exactly like this I think golden state at a track meet is exactly what sacramento could have hoped for because golden state doesn't bring a Lot of size to the table. Uh, they don't play a lot of big big guys and that's kind of sacramento's main issue I see for them moving forward But this series is fun and we've all benefited as basketball fans because like these teams are perfect matchups for each other Um, I won't be surprised at all if the warriors punch back and this series might be headed toward six or seven games And I hope it does because they're two fun teams to watch if we can get a high total in the playoffs I'll take that as well. So uh, like in the over here at 240 for the kings and the warriors Final game for tonight is the suns and the clippers your clippers tied one one across the first couple of games spread here Is three points in favor of the suns total is 226 and a half We saw the suns bounce back after a kind of lethargic game one with a winning game two How do you see things playing out in game three? So there the clippers mindset is probably the same mindset I have as a fan Which is you know, if we can get this to two two and prolong things We already see paul george moving pretty considerably with basketball activities and warm-ups Like if he can come back before the end of this series Even though it said it was unlikely according to like woge and shams Then the clippers have a very different chance to win this series But I I do kind of like the clippers here is in a short money line spot But my most annoying pet peeve in sports betting is like people that have a favorite team and tell you that They're like the sharp side of the game like I know that you think your team is going to win So nobody should care what I have thoughts on the clippers money line in a pretty close game But I do love the under here. Uh, it's exactly the exact same number We got in game two and that was just another worldly shooting performance from phoenix They went 60.6 from the field on pull-up two-point jumpers 40 on pull-up three-point jumpers and jim pull-up jumpers are the most difficult shots in the mba Just cats shoot fire Obviously the suns have kevin durant and devin booker so they can do some of that But those are still godlike numbers that they put up in game two toward craig made five threes chris paul barely missed, you know They will naturally pull back as this series progresses and the clippers should not have a total of this high If you look at them in a vacuum 24th in pace in the regular season That's even slowed down as koai lender does more of his isolation stuff And 19th and adjusted offensive rating per dunks and threes So these totals should absolutely drop moving forward So I will still target the under here and hope fewer those difficult shots go in the basket Yeah, that under is 226 and a half minus 112 on that one if you try to take your clippers fandom out of it What do you think the money line is plus 124? It's tough to analyze things objectively and I totally get that But if you're looking at it like from that perspective, um, what's your read on plus 124 in the money line there? So I I think that the clippers are actually doing well with some of the match-ups in this series Like russell westbrook has actually had a tremendous time attacking downhill against either chris paul Or or debon booker and he's just he's actually had some Poor shot luck as far as like he's taking efficient shots that just aren't going in the back in the basket You see some of that stuff around the rim So I do think the clippers can offensively have a little bit of positive regression in that direction Yeah, um the shot quality is very even these teams are actually very evenly matched as far as the types of looks that they're generating So, you know the clippers coming home. It's game three I think this line is a little bit shorter than any would have would have expected And you see a heavy amount of tickets and money coming in on the sun's it looks like on faddle sports books So, um, I I think the clippers are still kind of getting a little bit written off I heard a lot of predictions about four or five six games Without paul george, but they've matched up very well in the series so far I think it's a very close team if I got the suns plus two and a half at home I'd slam them of course. I think it's a very I think it's a very tight series And I'm excited to see what happens tonight in la well. Good luck Hope it goes well and enjoying the game there for tonight. Let's shift focus now and talk about some ufc It's not the biggest card by any means not the most exciting card, but hey, I've got you here I can't not talk ufc because I don't want to deprive myself personally. This is a very selfish segment on my end We got uh, surga popovich against kurtis blades as the headliner for this weekend Let's start things off with talking about some money lines awesome when you look at the fights here Who do you think wins who is undervalued right now on the money line at faddle sports book? So I I think one of the biggest things that you can learn if you're if you're new to sports betting is you Should not shy away from juice if you are showing value on a specific bet Then you can still make that bet. So if you flip over the prelims gem I'm looking at donna back row the very first fight on the card here a sitting in minus 150 And I just look at this line and I can't make heads or tails I've got a closer to like minus 250 because there's a massive gulf here in pre fight competition And long-term expectation between baccalaurel and brady. He stand In that fight and donna baccalaurel's lost two in a row But there are a pair of ufc guys with seven wins apiece that baccalaurel has been fighting Brady he stand just squeaked out his first ufc win over a guy that hasn't won in ufc himself So you're talking about a massive gulfing competition and it really comes down to Whether or not baccalaurel can defend takedowns in this fight and I think he can he's defended six of nine so far Including a couple from kyeong-ho kang in his last fight and kang is a more efficient wrestler on paper against better competition Then he stands so I really like the way this profiles for baccalaurel brady's a good wrestler, but he's really struggled to defend strikes negative 1.2 striking success rate 43 striking defense is poor baccalaurel just has too much positive experience with power for me to think that he'll take a set back here against brady he stand The money line there is minus 150 on baccalaurel. How do you handle these pronunciations? I know like Like for baseball, it's pretty easy because it's not like a ton of different But like you got like portuguese pronunciations. You got everything here. Um, I would swim and I would be in a bad place Is it like a ufc like media guide or what goes on here? So I a lot of times I get pronunciations from previous fight appearances It helps in ufc because these guys the broadcasters get to specifically interview the fighters in the past I have gotten pronunciations wrong based on regional footage before so It happens. It definitely happens been there. Believe me watching youtube videos trying to get pronunciations We've all been there for sure. Okay, uh, baccalaurel minus 150 to one money line You like any other money lines or are we talking props now? Yeah, no So also on the prelims here it is basically a pick-up and we love pick-up ufc fights because that means it's usually going to be competitive I really like matthew semmelsberger semi the jedi here taking on jeremiah wells It isn't really another instance where we got a significant competition gap Might actually be on the main card. I might have fumbled that for you jim, but um The big gap in competition even though wells is six years older It's actually semmelsberger that has significantly more high level experience He's got upwards of 75 minutes of octagon wells at just 10 and a half And you see this in ufc with guys that make their debut They just kind of hit the peak the pinnacle like 95th percentile or better outcomes in their first few fights We don't really know a lot about of them. Uh, you know wells came from behind with a knockout of warley all these Submitted my guy blood diamond who can't grapple at all and then a quick knockout of corp McGee who is at 38 years old at this point? And and certainly on the tail end of his career. He's got major questions Including he's only defended 32 of strikes so far Which is fine against guys that don't have as much power that have aged But semmelsberger hits like a truck he had three knockdowns in his last fight And he defends 56 of his incoming strikes So he is the far more sensible guy in these exchanges about minding his weapons Um, and he's really got a second quality second pitch with his wrestling if he needs it 50 Takedown accuracy wells struggled a little bit like with that in the all these fight I am trusting high-level experience and talent here with uh, semi the jedi the former marist college football star as well Semi the jedi. Yes, sir Where do they come up with these? This is nuts I have no idea one of my favorite regional promotions the alaskan fight league matthew semmelsberger came up through got the nickname from there So, uh, some good some good fights in the afl gym. You should check them out I love it. Uh, matthew semmelsberger minus 113 in the money line against jeremiah Jeremiah wells lost another that is on the main card for saturday. Okay Props just went up this morning for most so you might not have had a ton of time to look at those But looking at props beyond the money lines. What do you see in there for this weekend? So let's talk about the main event, right? The only fight on this card that truly matters when you're talking about tidal stakes That's surgey palovich and Curtis blades And people have asked me what's what's gonna happen in this fight The thing is is that this money line is decently close blades is a moderate favorite But it's not because they're expecting this fight to be competitive We really just don't know which one of these guys is going to win out because Curtis blades is this aggressive wrestler Has ragdolled almost everybody short of francis and ghanu and and one lucky luck knock out by Derek Lewis in a fight that he was losing handily, but Surgey palovich is this guy that now has this fearsome label Just went in has knocked out his last two opponents in like less than a minute. So He really has this terrifying combination of speed and power palovich more of a striker blades more of a grappler And it just depends which side wins out I i'm looking at a prop for blades when I look at his method of victory Curtis blades by submission at nine to one And this line has a lot of nuances that doesn't sound very Odd considering I just said blades is a grappler, but it's actually not something if this is the lowest this prop has ever been for him in his career and it's because This isn't really in his range of outcomes. He doesn't have any career ufc submission temps He doesn't have any professional wins or losses via submission I had to force my stuff to like this range of outcomes because he is going to have such a grappling advantage over Pavlovich here in It really has to do with Pavlovich being a one-dimensional striker in ufc thus far Blades averages north of six takedowns for 15 minutes So if he's having his way this fight is going to take place on the mat and this is a small dart If blade survives gets this fight to the ground that I think he can close it quickly because These wrestlers they train defensive and offensive grappling just to avoid getting submitted themselves So I know Curtis knows how to do it. He trains 20 minutes from my house here at elevation fight team And I can promise you he knows how to grapple He just hasn't necessarily had a match up We had to go through with that but kind of an anecdotal reason why I love a submission John jones just won this title via submission and he made it look easy Like like zero gun didn't know how to do it at all If Curtis blades can go here grab a submission in this fight. He says I can grapple too I need a date with john bones jones because I can give him problems So it sounds like this is a spot where the eye test is playing a big factor for you Which is good because I know that like a lot of Betting markets are going to be set by numbers. I run mine by numbers too So like there's nothing wrong with numbers, but if you have More in-depth knowledge of the sport that can factor in and kind kind of get you some value And it sounds like that's the bigger factor for you with this one Yeah, so think of it this way uh one against cursed caucus in columbus last year Curtis blades one dimensional wrestler that everyone thought that would be the path to victory right Submission north of 20 to 1 so it sits here at 9 to 1 So odds makers they've even made a manual adjustment like I have like oh If the grappling advantage is going to be this big in this fight It really doesn't matter that blades doesn't have a submission record that he doesn't have a submission attempt because He absolutely has the advantage here in this particular fight So I actually it's one of those situations where I don't like to miss out on value I would rather have this number 12 15 to 1 for my own personal sake But seeing it this low makes me know that odds makers are on the same track than I am And the fact that you know is 20 to 1 for that one is hilarious to me and I love it I love that recall that memory. That's very impressive. Okay. What about other props across the card for this weekend? Well, I bet it and lost it. It's however, remember But uh another prop that I'm looking at the main card I as min lucindo one of the kind of budding prospects in UFC one of the youngest fighters at just 21 years old Anywhere on the roster here. I'm looking at her if you look at her double chance odds Which by the way, if you're new to faddle better UFC on faddle This is how you quantify kind of an inside the distance bet I don't know if it'll be a knockout or a submission But you're gonna encompass both of those results with plus 220 behind lucindo this weekend I just have a very low baseline assumption of brogan walker. Um, she comes in off the ultimate fighter Which is UFC's reality show in the finale against juliana miller Which is the first of those fights that has tracked data. It did not go well Okay, and she didn't defend any of the four takedowns from miller 36 striking defense She was finished inside the distance. Here's the problem juliana miller in her next fight got ragdolled like that as well So it's not voting well for brogan walker to take on a bona fide UFC contender like I think lucindo is because lucindo in her debut Kind of a fight of the night type of battle with yasmin gyargy Uh 60 striking defense. So she did very well of keeping herself safe on the feet Um women's straw weight is not a division where you typically see finishes It's not like a knockout and submission heavy division But lucindo is one of those fighters that bucks that trends 10 of her 13 pro wins Via finish eight knockouts two submissions. I feel more confident My stuff also feels more confident in a knockout here But I am encompassing that submission element because of how badly walker struggled in that domain in her debut You know, I've got this inside the distance number closer to like plus 150 So plus 220 is an excellent number for lucindo Yeah, that's in the double chance market over at vandal sportsbook Lucindo by knockout or submission is plus 220 her moneyline odds are minus 370 So just kind of different way of betting that it sounds like basically what they're saying is This one is gonna go the distance, but lucindo will win and what you're saying is no I think she takes care of business pretty pretty quickly I I think a lot of that distance number has to do with women's straw weights historical trends Like this is a division that regularly does seed decisions This one bucks that though. In fact, you know, when I lined my stuff up I would have thought walker was less likely to be finished in the distance in her debut than in this fight So that is that's great value for me when I look at it Alrighty, well that is nba and usc via awesomeswame for this weekend awesomes. I appreciate it as always Good luck to your bets, but also thanks for joining us and enjoy the clippers game for tonight If you can I'm not sure I tend to get too stressed in the situation So hopefully you can enjoy that game tonight I feel like I'm playing with house money with paul george down. So, you know, I'm just having a great time I love the nba playoffs. So and thanks for having me on today, jim Appreciate it as always check out awesome on twitter at a swing three I am on twitter at jim sonnis make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And don't forget to check us out over on the fandal youtube page as well back once again tomorrow talking some soccer MLB and nascar all at the same time in the same place. We'll talk to you then This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network