 the Oklahoma gubernatorial race is really fascinating because it is unusually competitive and Something just happened a viral moment that I think is going to Assist the Democrat here even further Joy Hofmeister now she during a debate is going to drop a fact on Governor Kevin Stitt and as you're going to see he's gonna be completely incredulous and refused to believe it But as you're going to see when we come back here what she's saying is completely factual. That's why So let's talk about the facts. The fact is The rates of violent crime are higher in Oklahoma on your watch than in New York and California. That's a fact Well, we'll have that fact checked by the frontier superintendent It's also a fact that Do you believe we have higher crime than New York or California? That's what she just said Safety and security is my top priority and it will be as governor The look on his face there was sheer panic because he didn't know how to respond. He just had to say that's not true Do you believe that? Well, I mean whether or not people believe it that doesn't necessarily mean that it's not true and unfortunately for him It is true what she said was absolutely factual as Yahoo News reports John Roman a senior fellow at NORC at the University of Chicago told Yahoo News that Hofmeister's numbers were accurate citing FBI data Roman said that Oklahoma is 12th in violence per 100,000 residents and 7th in property crime per 100,000 residents California is similar but lower for each and New York is much safer and below the national averages in both property and Violence overall putting violent crime rates and property rates together Oklahoma is on the list of the top 10 highest crime rate states Roman noted that the national incident-based reporting system Now being used by the FBI is new and that California and New York only provided estimates for 2021 which were factored in the data However, Roman added that the old system prior to 2021 shows the same general trend in recent years California and Oklahoma are similar with Oklahoma a little higher on property crimes and New York much lower on Both now that last paragraph there is important because that is the basis for Stitz team to reject this data saying oh well You know, these are just Estimates and the data is incomplete. Yeah, but the trend was the same before 2021. So you still are Wrong, so you've got to take the L But they won't take the L and that's because this makes Kevin Stitt look very bad So if you look at some of his campaign ads and we're not gonna get to them But overall his campaign ads are Oklahoma was in a really bad place Then I became the governor and everything is so much better. We no longer have this budget crisis I increased the pay of cops and teachers, which is something that he brags about which is pretty Surprising for a Republican and so he wants to make it seem as if everything is copacetic in the state right now So this doesn't bode well for that narrative. Now in the event Hofmeister were the incumbent and Stitt was the challenger here. Would he be bringing up this statistic? Absolutely, he'd be running as this tough-on-crime Republican because this is what they do The problem is that whether or not they promote a tough-on-crime message is going to hinge on Their position and whether or not it politically benefits them regardless of the actual data within their state, right? Now in that video, it seems like Hofmeister was more tough on crime than Stitt But she doesn't really have a platform that leads me to believe that she is going to be one of these tough-on-crime Sort of centrist Democrats, but if you go to Stitt's page, what's really interesting is that he isn't running on being tough-on-crime Rather, he's claiming that he is smart-on-crime He actually brags about commuting the sentences of nonviolent drug offenders and increased funding for treatment to decrease the recidivism rate for low-level drug offenders too and he's done other things with regard to criminal justice reform that are objectively good that I think that he should brag about but if you were to flip this if a Democrat listed those things on Their platform saying that they're smart-on-crime rather than being tough-on-crime and they're Commuting the sentences of low-level drug offenses then we all know what the narrative would be You want to let criminals out yada yada yada, but because it's a Republican here even if crime rates are high Well, that's not the narrative So Republicans will only run as being tough-on-crime and fear-monger about the crime rate if they can get some political points for it And they do that because like it or not it is a smart strategy because it works hysteria and fear-mongering over crime has been a consistent galvanizer for Independence in particular, but especially Republicans and even you know It helps win over some normie Democrats more suburban Democratic voters So that's why they do it but just understand that if a Republican is talking about being tough-on-crime You know, you should really look at the data because odds are they're not telling you the full story, right? They're showing you some anecdotes, but that doesn't necessarily represent the macro of what's happening in that said state now I don't want to give you this picture that state is some sort of a moderate because he is by no means a moderate despite bragging about teacher pay and some criminal justice reform this individual is a far-right extremist in fact He signed one of the most harshest if not the harshest Abortion bans into law with absolutely no exceptions for rape or incest But there are apparently exceptions for the life of the mother or if a fetus is not viable Then they can apparently remove that via abortion. Although There's a lot of legal gray area there and as we've seen with other states That doesn't necessarily make doctors feel any safer about doing the procedure needed to you know Evacuate a fetus if it's not viable because they don't want to be prosecuted Either way, this is a really fascinating race because it's competitive as I mentioned at the start of this video And if you look at public opinion polls on average, they are neck and neck So stitt is leading by an average of just one point and Hofmeister is leading according to some polls, but on average They are statistically tied and this could go either way in the state of Oklahoma So really fascinating dynamic here Oklahoma wasn't necessarily a state that I thought would be interesting to watch But either way here. What's unfolding is unusual and it just goes to show you that when it comes to these tough on crime Republicans, they're only going to trot out that message if it is politically beneficial But if their state that they're in control of is particularly high when it comes to crime They're not gonna bring that up. They're just gonna talk about different issues. So you kind of know When they're going to use this if it works for them and in this instance, it doesn't work for Kevin stitt In fact, it'd be horrible for him to bring up the crime rates in the state of Oklahoma because he's the one in charge Right, but if he were the challenger again, he would absolutely be putting that front and center So either way pretty interesting Republicans are fake who knew