 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White. And welcome all to another excellent edition of the Power Trading Hour. Today, what do we have? Well, it's a tale of two cities. Rich man, poor man. Got a little bit of everything. We're up 58 points on the S&P cash. Finally got the bounce. And it's basically bad news is good news. The EU said everything's going to hell on hand basket. So everybody thinks that means that they won't raise interest rates anymore. And it's the manic depressive cycle continues in the market. But we shall see earnings out after the bell tonight. You know, one of the things you probably would have liked to see was some decent volume today. And so far, pretty crappy. 6.3 billion shares. So a light volume pop. I've been hoping for one. I thought it would take over a couple of days, maybe in the Friday to get all the way up to resistance. But we rocketed it right there. It's kind of an all or nothing market. So the question is probably you don't want to short instantly. But the question is, do you get anything more out of this the next day? The volume is pathetic comparatively to previous rallies and previous dives in the market. So this is not a sign of strength yet. But it is what it is. Light volume pop at least so far. Right to resistance. But that's it. 877-927-6648. We'll start looking for some stuff. Crude oil off fairly significantly. Gold, I think if there was a church that gold had, it would be called the perpetual whining of the sisters of the poor of the market. Why didn't it stay up there? Well, it's just a little bit of a search. Down $29 today. But just a little bit of everything is there. But this is just the way I suspect, or at least I don't see any change, bear markets work. And that is you'll get two, three, four days higher, although a bet very small percentage-wise holler, higher. And that is in those stocks that are short. And then when the shorts give up shorting, the market heads back down again. So I'll be very interested to see if anybody actually shorts us tonight when I start looking at the FINRA data. So far looks fairly benign. Probably the easiest way to watch how many people are going short and track it is the UVXY. It's down 6% today. So on a fan, what are we going to call it? One and a quarter percent pop so far today. Light volume. Yeah, not a lot of shorts. That's giving it up fairly strongly today. And the opposite thing is, does everybody decide to dive in on top of that grenade and go short? If it does, then maybe we have a little bit more. If it doesn't, then that is quite our lady of perpetual hope or perpetual slaps are head on the ruler. Yeah, I don't know. I wasn't a Catholic. I had a friend that was. And the nuns used to beat him senseless. And he didn't. He was a very smart guy, but man, did he not like school. But very smart, just the same. 877-927-6648. You can email me at PATH. That's P-A-T-H. If you're in Lute. P-A-T-H at T-F-N-N dot com. And of course, you could always put messages in the den. A lot of questions about the TLT was go to the charts on that. Pretty amazing that we're not getting, if I can find it, where's my chart thing here? Pretty amazing that we didn't stop at 122 and just kept on going. That is going to be probably a pretty good extension of this move. Energy was stronger. Now, this does set up a bounce. If you do get one to 125-128, but it may be a lot farther down before you get that bounce. I don't see anything out here that really says anything other than a doji. That may be your saving grace is a light volume doji and maybe some kind of folding like a $5 suitcase by the Fed. So I don't see that. They know that their credibility is worse than dog do-do. So I don't know if there's a whole lot 125-ish. That would be awful proud on a move on this. But hard to see. Anyway, bounce on bad news because they're thinking bad news means lower interest rates longer. The last of the folks that had thought about buying houses with interest rates are crowding in. So you've got a little bit better housing starts, that kind of stuff this morning, better than thought anyway. But probably the last hurrah and, of course, energy and things like that starting to roll over, which is in gold, which I think is... I don't think it's a sign that inflation is going away. It may just be a sign that people are running for anywhere they think is safe. But the big problem with the XLE out here is you had a 98 million share high on March 8th. That was at $80.22. You went into it yesterday with 30 million shares. So what is that? Gold? That's not anything that you want to see. Today, all you have is a doji out here. So is there something else going on? This gold? Maybe just the end of a really extended movement. And people thinking that they're going to try to find a faster horse than equities today. Yeah, there's just a lot of stuff going on. I am not persuaded yet to be in the bull camp. That means I probably will be in the market a little less and make a little more money. But that is just I... 877-927-6648. But hey, I do digress. Let's go to a little bit of history and then we'll move on. And it's all just a little bit of history repeating. On this day in 1965, Electronics Magazine publishes an article by Gordon Moore, head of research and development for Fairchild Semiconductor and future co-founder of Intel. He writes an article that says that the density on integrated circuits will double every 18 months for at least the next 10 years. That was 55 years ago. Anyway, this theory will eventually come known as Moore's Law and it still pretty much holds through today. We'll be back in a minute. Are you grinding in the market? 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At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis, and it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN, educating investors. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. Yes, in the first segment, I did cover bonds, the TLT ad nauseam already, but they're extending and maybe 125 in a pop, but that's it. Not a whole lot to say about that. I did have a request to be a little positive, so we'll do that. Don't you knock it off with a negative wave! Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change? Always put the negative wave, Moriarity. Always put the negative wave! Okay, I'll be positive one day. I'm positive or headed lower. Anyway, the issue is, is there anything good going on is the question from Robert. You got a little bit of a bounce in Tesla. I'd say the only good news that I've seen today that really moved much of anything, we'll talk about it. Well, I guess that and the mask thing, which I'll look at next for Brian. But anyway, Tesla bounced a little bit. They're reopening their factories. Unclear weather apples assembly lines, because they really don't manufacture much there in China. It's mostly assembled parts. But anyway, Tesla did bounce a little bit on that, but the volume's pretty poor so far today. I don't think it matters a great deal. Certainly for automobiles, it's going to be harder to sell them going forward at higher interest rates. And it's not like housing. They are not really going to drive the interest rates lower that much. They're probably just going to go up higher and much faster on autos, because that tends to be the first thing that people don't pay on. So we shall look at that. And like I said, I'm positive. We're going lower. Anyway, other than that, I don't think there's much to say in Tesla. A Tampa federal judge did give a very good forecast of what's going forward if we do have any more moves by the federal government to impose its edicts on us through some of its federal branches. And if you want that stuff, I guess the thing to do is call your congressman and get him to pass the bill. But at the moment, like a lot of things we found out, the government did a lot of things. It didn't have the power to actually do. And hopefully they'll figure out the next time that emergencies don't last two years. They last a month, maybe two months, and get together and actually come up with something instead of just running around and having edicts. But on Boeing, you got a nice move here today. But again, I think it's more about fuel prices now. Boeing had it kind of covered. But after everybody, you know, probably the best thing that Boeing has going forward is everybody being cooped up for the last couple of years. It's bouncing today, maybe on lighter volume. I would have loved to see one more retest of 167. And as I said, I'm fairly bearish. It doesn't mean that I'm going to be short every day. And probably it means I can be short every week or two and make a lot more money than probably being long and getting caught out if I am right on that path. But not much going on there. Just you got a great deal going on. And that's it. No soup either. On Apple, not that many components actually come from China, although there are a few. Almost all the components now Apple over the last two years has done a great deal to decentralize themselves off of assembly and manufacturing in China. A great deal has much been moved to Vietnam, Malaysia, a lot of the other countries. And not only that, but the big assembly lines, they told Foxconn to move and they did over a year ago down to India. So why China is still a big and important part in shutting down the assembly line was for Apple and Tesla, shutting the factories for Tesla. Apple is only about half as linked to China as it was maybe a year, a year and a half ago. So there is some pretty good silver lighting there if you're talking about not being dependent on a single manufacturer or a single country for getting everything you need done. R-O-K-U, off the bottom supposedly. We'll take a look and we will decide. The one nice thing you had was the super high volume low at 102. 60 was 66 million shares. You're going to get a really nice bounce and I should have taken it. I did not. The March 15th low was 7 million shares compared to 66 million shares. A blind man could have seen it. If you looked at the power law vector indicator on the art of timing the trade charts, you went up on a 15, you came back on a 7. If the market hadn't just been horrible, I probably would have taken the trade. But even then I was thinking short and I made money on it. But you don't get many of these out here and I should have bought it anyway and it may have been my hedge on the rest. I did not. You're back into kind of into those candles now with about 3 million shares. Again, this was a company I got chastised for when it was $350 and I said I had no idea how it made any kind of money to make it worth that. Now at a third of the price, it is a third, isn't it? Let's go back and look in the way back machine. Oh, not a third. A fifth. Or darn near a fifth. Anyway, you even had a high volume high up there which was one of the reasons I didn't short it. But I was picking up some tasty quesadillas yesterday at spending some of my ill-gotten cash from short positions last week. And the guy in there was talking about how Roku and Fubi had all been charging the hell out of his credit cards even though he hadn't approved that. I wonder how much of that goes on when they're in tough positions. They want to make the stock look a little bit better and they'll give the money back later if at all. If people don't complain. I think they went a little far. He said 700 bucks between Roku and Fubi which is another kind of thing just like it. So I figure you're probably, if you're trying to go that far, how much stuff do you have to watch to get that $700 bill? I'm not exactly sure. That's got to be a mistake this time. But maybe not just the old honest mistake. Maybe they're trying to put some lipstick on this cake, count the lows when it's like 20% of its highs. We'll be back in a minute. Fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den Trading Room only at tfnn.com. The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas. Join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world. Subscribers to the Tiger's Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our tfnn and hosts live during their shows. Interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas, analyze analysis and discuss the market action all trading day. 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Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting tfnn.com If you go back a few days you had almost 3 million shares you're up on about 720,000 shares today. Now, I could be wrong but my guess is if I am wrong we are going to get a retest at least of previous lows like on this one back on April 7th $44.84 but I think everybody knows this is the last raw of the Art of Timing the Trade Chart. The Art of Timing the Trade Chart is probably the biggest bubble but I think everybody knows this is the last raw and a lot of people are going to be selling their houses some of the bigger areas of the country and I want to say it's Boise, Idaho was probably the biggest bubble only second to Tampa and Miami for bubbles and housing as of late anyway but the Boise one is kind of blown up I haven't seen much change down here in Florida and I think it's still people moving down here but everything has a peak but certainly issues with that but now I think you're going to go back lower again I'm still thinking that without any information to change my mind my mind is pliable kind of like a baby so you can kind of mold that skull a little bit still most people are stuck I would change my mind if the market does something different but I still suspect that 4110 4115 level on the S&P cash is going to get tested and it's probably going to get tested when the market does turn down the next time very tough we went through a lot of stocks that started to give us signals or patterns for the double repo pattern that's 10-15 days straight up above the 3x3 couple days below, couple days above and then the next move below is the one where you get the kind of destruction that people only think and read about from 1929 at least they think it is it's generally not that bad but any lower is always the end of the world for people that are permables but now I wouldn't be pulling Richard to ask would I be going short right now no, as we said yesterday today and tomorrow or today and yesterday are options rollovers and just tends to be a lot of options written through most of the summer so there's a lot more going on than usual and because of that sometimes maybe a couple hours tomorrow morning of that extension then the market generally presents itself with its true direction it takes its mask off and lets everybody know who's underneath there so I'm not a big fan of making a big hill of beans over today's bounce and tonight when I actually look at what people did in shorts and how the volume came in at the close because we still have a lot of time left to go maybe everybody decides to buy in the last few minutes of the day but as I said so far volume pretty poor and of course we've got some amount of earnings out after the bell too we had some earlier and we're going to go through some of those real quick that were either in the news or had some earnings to retest of the top on very light volume for Lockheed Martin the energy off this March 16th low was not all that exciting for my power law vector indicator that measures the energy between the highs and the lows lets us know it's in that juicy middle anyway didn't quite even get to the previous high that had 5 million shares on March 7th but keep an eye on that to ACC American campus communities is a buyout at 65 bucks people believe that that one not so much the twitter buyout to to JBHT is that it HT is it yeah HT HT as we go through yes okay not a whole lot on this one and just kind of sideways action on it although it had some more earlier in the day J&J out with some news pre-market up a little higher and making a new high but not holding it 85-94 and again kind of a little bit of a siren song out there luring you to buy the high but not holding it previous high on the 11th of this month it was at 6 million shares you already have 10 million and you're not holding that high so probably wouldn't short that one but just keep an eye on it also stocks that tend to get seasonally weak at this period are up a bit Hasbro tends to be kind of weak across the summer and then depending on what kind of games they get can do well into the Christmas season you have a huge bar out here that is engulfing all these folks from going sideways back since really the fourth you had kind of almost some tweezers railroad track bottoms and it just kind of went sideways today and then you had a nice bounce 88-40 was the high we're not much off that now Halliburton also a lot of people talking about that in the den today and and had a little bit of everything for people but a higher high did not hold it volume is going to be okay but not that great and again my conversation on the excel I think gold and energy are telling us something and that is that everybody kind of thought that they've topped out so they've run to the equities for the day but my guess is out of the frying pan and into the fire with those folks but it may take another couple of days again as I said many times before the problem with being short is you have to be willing to be wrong three or four out of five days to make the giant payout and a lot of times if you just wait a little while those three or four days will go by you can be short you don't have to be short all the time but sometimes you will miss those giant surprises to the downside as they said in the den tomorrow is a big day for those folks and yes I will I've already got a request to play it we will play the reefer madness bumper but that will be tomorrow but we'll see what people are all front running it today take a look here not so much I guess they're all down getting some Doritos and munchies instead of at the counter buying more shares of MJ but what can you say looks like this is actually going to go retest 840 but not a lot of volume that's the best thing you can say is this is on extremely light volume as you go back in there you want something less than 1.4 billion shares in here about 900,000 see how the next couple of days bring that's it we'll be back in a minute we'll be back 8322 call us today it stops to set for each trade Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every Friday with updates throughout the week you can get the technology insider at TFNN.com for only $37.50 sign up for Dave's newsletter the technology insider and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer try it risk free today with our 30 day money back guarantee TFNN educating investors now may be time to take a closer look trade C-H-A-U or C-H-A-D directions daily C-S-I 300 China A-Share Bull and Bear ETFs China A-Share's in either direction visit Direction Investments.com today an investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares please contact Direction Shares at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principle the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV that's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV we've come back several requests for a very special 420 edition tomorrow so uh yeah I'll go through them tomorrow Dave's not here okay uh what else do we have okay so that'll be how are we gonna call her I'm looking in here huh yep David, John from Philly hey John I'm looking in the wrong room here I think hang on just a second is that, no? uh I wasn't there uh I'm looking bluish okay go right ahead John I think I'm all caught David I wanted to call and ask you about oil now as you know I trade fairly aggressively the NIMEX crude oil futures and I know you don't look at the futures prices per se but I share an observation I wanted to ask your thoughts um I observed this back on Sunday uh March 7 spot crude oil futures made a panic high up at 130 uh came back down and then bounced up and made a lower high down to 116 and came back down and now bounced again now both times we've come back down bottomed around the $93 barrel level 130 then 116 upon those declines and bounces David I you know I've done my Fibonacci retracement calculations and have observed level based upon 116 and 113 is approximately 108 and it's extremely tight David and you know you and I have talked over the years about paying attention to retracement whether corrective declines are corrective particularly when they're tight so 108 very tight yesterday on crude oil futures got to 109 you're right in that area and we pulled back to 102103 that what what we will but that is as I see it and having said all that I wanted to just ask you to share with us what your view is on the oil price and you know the big oil equities if you could well let's go to the OIH to begin with when you're talking about confluence levels for those people new to the show if you take two Fibonacci ratios from two different long term movements not short term you can get them and I think this is probably the same thing you're seeing in the futures but on this on the OIH I've got 219 to 217 which is a fairly decent retracement back here I'm not predicting that comes back but that's where you know if you wanted some decent risk reward you'd look for it the only things that I really see was the last couple of days of last week was you had about 67 senators all getting ready to sign on drill baby drill I think a lot of them looking at reelection that kind of stuff wanted to get on the right side of that election cycle the downside is the house hasn't moved at all they're doubling down if there's anything else so I don't know if there's a anything other than advancing production in North America that's going to really change that do you see anything in the political wins that says that's going to happen I know David I observed the same thing that particularly your discussion about the house of representatives so I see that I don't see anything dramatically changing so the answer is no well I do see I don't know if this would line up with yours in the futures but it does say that you know you could have a pullback to 219 on the OIH and that 312 yesterday that's a pretty big haircut just off the top now you know maybe peace breaks out maybe the Arabs and Israelis all decide to hug but I don't it hadn't happened in 2000 years so I'm not highly optimistic on that side but you know maybe something does happen that we do not know if you do get some bearish news like better news maybe coming out of war other things more production maybe even the Canadians want to ship us a million barrels a day and all we're getting is a lot of yet from the administration on that you know if that actually would happen I think we could see a massive pullback but you know it looks to me like everybody just keeps doubling down on we'll teach them a lesson by making fuel prices as high as we can right right well very good on that thank you for sharing your thoughts I will just be very interested or in fact oil rallies back here from today's level 102-103 and surpasses yesterday's high 109 and that 108 confluence mark that will be a signal to me eventually the decent rally extension occurring thereafter so I guess those are my parameters so I appreciate your discussion I don't see a whole lot less than 100 bucks here but peace and good news break out maybe everybody just thinks the economy is going to get so horrible no one's going to be buying it you know I don't know the reverse psychology on this stuff but I just don't see a great deal fundamentally that underpins what I'm saying with the crude oil being down 50 or 560 today I don't know why it is maybe there's something going on in the futures that a lot more than I do yes other than that IMF forecast come out today about economic weakness seemingly spreading combined with having just failed right there at that confluence mark to me that accounts for the selling pressure and lack of buying today so well David thanks so much for your time do appreciate it sir you bet 9276648 you can be like John who lives in Philly not near Philly like other folks and you can go back and look at that we got some more emails here why we waited you talked about apple a little bit do you see much going on not right now we got one more segment but yeah this is we'll talk about this because this is what I think a great deal is happening and it's already started in these bigger stops we'll talk about that when we wrap up the show and the next segment sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the 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Tiger's Den risk-free with our 30 day money back guarantee and become part of the TFNN trading community TFNN educating investors Joe next on TFNN as we return I wanted to go back to this double-reco pattern you can use a nine-day I like the three by three displaced moving average that's taking basically it's a six day pattern where you take three days average and you put that average out three days into the future that's why this line actually goes out into the future not back to the future but into the future so anyway the pattern on this is you get a close above the nine-day or three by three and you then you just start counting and if they're all on one side and they don't kind of go back and forth a pretty good indication that you're going to have some kind of significant top on the other side of these when they stop you started on the 16th of March that's the first one that's one two three four five six seven eight nine ten eleven let's call it twelve days and generally in a bear market they're ten to fifteen days in a bull market they can be fifteen to twenty-five days but this pattern which is more of a bearish one in a bear market you get a huge rally you get that move you get a day or two underneath it in this case you had one day underneath it one day back above it and then the next pull back is when you want to go short and that's where we ended up on the fifth of April which was the confirmation and you just keep on moving down and occasionally you get a little move higher there are so many of these stocks that are kind of setting up and you along this way of this double repo pattern and you have to look at them going all the way back where it started in this case you'd be looking at to close one fifty nine fifty nine it's not that much farther for Apple a lot of these come back where they start so when you can not what you have to we'll see you tomorrow see you back there