 Yeah, global connections, you know, update on the war in Ukraine, a couple of thoughts about that. I'm Jay Fidel, this is Think Factor. The fellow on the other screen is the Karl Ackerman. He's an historian, especially skilled in Eastern Europe. They're not a number of programs with Think Factor discussed that. But it's a couple of thoughts here, update on the war in Ukraine. You know, there are a lot of threads in the news lately and some people think that, you know, Ukraine is fading from the public view because there are so many other things that are discomforting happening in the news, especially domestically. But we have to keep on focusing on it because it is the thing that's going to determine the future of the liberal world order, clear enough. That's one thing. So we're going to continue to do this with Karl and others to keep current on Ukraine. And the other thing is because there's so many articles in the newspaper and the Times and the Post about Ukraine, you know, we really have to collect our thoughts and connect the dots on what's going on. And that's the intention here of, you know, updating on the war in Ukraine. And let me say what I would like to discuss and Karl can agree or disagree. I would like to have Karl catch up and understand how things are evolving in the war, including the strange and failing moves of the Russian army, Putin's troubles with the war crimes investigations, and with the oligarchs who are breaking away and protesting, and the Russians who protest by leaving. Putin's move just in the paper today to command the army by himself is very interesting. The surrender of the steel plant, that was very troubling. It was a surrender in a manner of what words were put on it by Ukrainian government, Zelensky. And the decisions by Finland and Sweden increasing in their urgency to join NATO, understandably. NATO's response to that and to find out what is happening in terms of the coalition of support in Western Europe. And I find this very interesting, Turkey's attempts to block the effort by Finland and Sweden in NATO, hardly suits him, Erdogan, I mean. Biden's $40 million package, attempts by Rand Paul and other Republicans to delay the package. It was gonna come on, I'm sure you realize, Karl, today, efforts by Mitch McConnell to get the package passed. All these things and maybe more about Ukraine. So I'm gonna turn the floor over to you, Karl and see what you can do on helping us understand. Well, let me start with Senator Paul in terms of what he's attempting to do. This is a huge mistake. I often end our shows by saying we are all Ukrainians. And what he's trying to do is to block any kind of military aid to the Ukraine. And this is as miscalculated and wrongheaded as anyone could be, but it doesn't stop this gentleman from doing things that you may remember his questions during the Supreme Court hearings for the most recent nominees. So this is on one hand, it's one of the few areas where most Republicans and Democrats are united. And this notion, and I think Rand Paul follows a lot in terms of the former President Trump, America first and not spending monies on any kind of foreign policy. And this is greatly mistaken, but let me go on from there. In terms of foreign policy, and I think this is the most important point I'll make today, Jay, is that the fact that Sweden and Finland are applying for NATO leadership means that Vladimir Putin has already lost this war. His whole attempt was to create buffer zones around Russia and to restore the former Soviet Union. And he has just created such fear in two countries that were neutral and fairly friendly towards Russia and never having problems, just like simple fences separating Finnish territory from Russian territory in cases and Finns crossing the border to buy vodka a lot. As I remember when I was there in 1969, days and days and years and years and dinosaurs ago. But this is a huge event in diplomatic history and it's a complete turn in world events. So by committing this war, and of course what's happening with the Russians on the ground is, except for one Southern city, is that they're losing the battles and they're losing the battles because I think for two reasons. One is, I don't think the Russian military knew what they were getting into and I think they were ill prepared, that's number one. But number two, what's motivating the Russian troops? I mean, that there are fascists in the Ukraine? Well, any soldier that goes into the Ukraine is gonna understand pretty quickly that there are not a lot of fascists and there's a huge upsurge against them. So I think he is in deep trouble both on a military front and as I said, on a political front, he's lost big time internationally. And of course, he's peri-op to most Western leaders and I don't think you can get something like that back. I don't think you can get your reputation back. There's no way that he may be able to, after this war concludes, be able to sell his oil in Western Europe or his natural gas. But I think he's become someone that people don't wanna affiliate with. So, and I'm gonna stop there because I've made a couple points already. Okay, well, I'll continue with some of my curiosities. I guess we know what it means when the troops don't have any understanding of why they're there and getting killed. And we probably know what it means when the Russian families at home, which are ordinary people misled by state TV, when they get body bags that notices that their young sons have been, and I say young because a lot of the military from Russia is very young, when their young sons and to some extent daughters have been killed, for what? This has gotta be permeating through. And one of the questions that I would current to me is that, you know, there's no protest permitted. And if you call it a war, you know, theoretically go to jail for 15 years and all that. But there's got to be an underlying protest and underground protest, if you will, just as Putin uses the state TV and he clamps down on social media and all that, there's ways for people who disagree with this war in Russia to pass the word. You know, just as technology can seize on one side of an issue, it can also affect the other side of the issue. That's the world in which we live. Dictators love the technology they can use for propaganda. But there's a growing group of people, you can read about them every day, who are using the technology back against them. And my question to you is, how do we know about this and how is it working? And is it limited to the protest in Russia or is it expanding worldwide? Well, let me take the last quarter question first. It is expanding worldwide. And especially in all the NATO countries, you know, there have been massive demonstrations and people have been on the streets. So I mean, that's pretty clear. What's unclear to me is how big the sentiment is. Now, when the Russians were in Afghanistan, again, under Putin, you know, before they got out, what happened was that there became a clandestine operation by Russian mothers and they banded together in an organization, I'm forgetting the name of this organization, to remove Russia from Afghanistan because too many Russian soldiers were being killed and also in Chechnya now, the same thing happened. And so, you know, I think that your comments were really the most astute ones, Jay, in terms of when it becomes apparent to a lot of Russian that, you know, there are lots of body bags coming back and there are lots of body bags already coming back. But you know, when it becomes, you know, 100,000 as opposed to 30 or 40,000, I think Vladimir Putin is gonna be in deep trouble. I'm not that he isn't already. But one of the things that's propping up as government is even though oil has been shut off in certain areas in Western Europe, where he's selling to abroad in other places, the price of oil has gone up. So as it has in the United States. And so the oil economy is still operable in Russia. One avenue has been shut off. But other avenues, you know, whether he's selling to China or to India or, you know, African states, I'm sure he's doing all of the above. He's still got Nord Stream one working. Yeah. At 200 million, 200 million euros a day, he gets paid on that from Germany. Right, so that's one thing. Now, you know, he is hurting and the economy is hurting. I mean, just yesterday we heard about McDonald's, you know, retreating from Russia. And I have kind of an interesting story about that is when in August of 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, you know, during Glasnost and Perestroika under Mikhail Gorbachev McDonald's come in. And, you know, they were selling, Big Macs were selling like hotcakes as expression goes. So, my metaphors a bit there. But anyway, you get the general gist of what I'm saying. And so, you know, the fact that these McDonald's are leaving and a lot of international companies are leaving and stores are being boarded up, this is a real sign of economic problems in Russia. And they're, you know, the one car that is decent, Lada is, you know, Renault and other companies from the West are pulling back. And so, you know, without this Western infusion of goods and enterprises, banking, et cetera, you know, things are gonna be coming more and more difficult for the average Russian. No, he nationalized Renault. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, and so that's what I'm talking about is that of course this puts everything under Russian operation. And as I said in the last two of our shows, you know, you don't necessarily hear about a Russian car ever, you know, when they're partnering with Renault or Renault or Fiat, you know, they generally produce good cars, but that's because they have good engineers outside of Russia. Not that they don't have good engineers, but they just don't have good quality control about almost anything in Russia. So that's why, you know, people are always afraid in Russia in terms of nuclear waste. Of course, my everlasting concern, even though there aren't too many places that Russia now has control of Ukrainian nuclear power are the missiles, the aircraft, you know, that are going into Russia. And the most curious thing, Jay, that I really am puzzled about is the notion of no aircraft, you know, during that celebration of World War II in Russia, in Red Square, that's a strange one. And I'm not sure why that took place. There's a theory that, you know, Vladimir Putin needed to use that one of the aircrafts which would carry him aloft in case there was nuclear war. And it didn't want to expose that aircraft. But the other theory is that, you know, that there's some problem with the Russian Air Force. And if that's the case, then all bets are off because the Ukraine- It could be. That's a theory that does resonate that the Russian Air Force generals said we're not participating. Yeah. I mean, that's just as odd. It could be a rebellion by the military. Yeah, that could be. I think that's probably an outlier. But you could be right. You know, I was talking to someone today about, you know, the strange things that are happening in our world today and the Russian invasion of Ukraine is right up there. And the big lie, which supports it, you know, is really quite awful. But, you know, what we talked about, Jay, and we've talked about privately and also on the show is, you know, what is Vladimir Putin going to do in that area between Moldova and Ukraine? And what is Vladimir Putin? Transnestria. Yeah, Transnestria. Yeah, Transnestria or, you know, Kalinkan grad. And, you know, it's in those two areas that I worry about also in addition to, you know, nuclear reactors being somewhat damaged. But if anyone's watching that wants to know about something to read about the current state of Russia, the last New Yorker has a pictorial section with David Remnick, you know, the editor of the New Yorker leading with a page passage. And then following that is a wonderful article about the hospitalers. I think that's the way to pronounce it. And it's all the people who are going in to try to help. You know, Joe, normally, former Ukrainian nationals who are living abroad, they're going back and they're working in hospitals. And, you know, there's a wonderful story about that traces from the beginning of the war, what really happens to people that are in the war and, you know, what happens to, you know, to the civilians. Well, that brings me to what happens to the 600 army that were surrendered. Zelensky decided it'd be better to surrender them in the steel plant. And he ordered them to surrender. And they were taken away in a bunch of Russian buses into Russia, or into Russian-held Ukraine. And ostensibly for medical care, but also possibly to retire them from the war in Siberia. And, I mean, what do you make of that? I guess from a prudence point of view, from a practical point of view, Zelensky was right in surrendering them, who was going nowhere. But what implication does it have? What effect does it have? What consequence? Well, you know, I mean, it's interesting. One can see this, you know, on face value, it has to be a loss for the Ukraine. I mean, in other words, there's no ways around it. But if you look at it from a longer-term perspective, like the Winter War, the Fin spot against the Soviet Union, you know, people don't remember this war as the great victory of the Soviet Union over the Fin's. They remember it as the Fin stopping a much larger army, much better equipped, you know, for months at a time. So I think that's the, you know, I mean, you know, even though I don't often refer to this historical event often, because I think there are many, it's a multi-sided event. But I mean, this is like the Alamo. I mean, you know, for Americans, it wasn't the fact that, you know, that the Americans were defeated or the Texans were defeated. It was the heroic stand of the Americans that's gone down in American folklore. So, you know, I think this is the way it's gonna be remembered is this is a heroic stand by a, you know, a poorly, I shouldn't say poorly, but under-equipped military personnel and things like this. And this goes to one of your earlier questions, Jay, is I don't think this is gonna fall out of the eyes of most Americans, because, you know, it's too central to our ethos about democracy and democratic traditions. And I think also you have, you know, a president of Ukraine who is very good about keeping it on the front pages. You know, you have a, you really do have, I mean, you know, people have compared him to Churchill and things like that, and maybe, but he is definitely someone who, President Zelensky, who is gonna keep this war forefront and center, and as well it should be, because this is really the democratic fight of our times and the Ukrainians are heroic. And this is not to do as, you know, people often do is to make everything Ukrainian perfect and lovely and wonderful. We're not saying that. And this particular fight, much like World War II, there are good guys and there are bad guys. And, you know, I mean, it's a pretty much black and white situation. Well, I mean, when you start talking about war crimes and clearly the raw war crimes and atrocities, a major magnitude weapons of mass destruction, of killing civilians with no good reason at all, five of thousands, of forcing a population to leave by 10 million people. This is, you know, this is unprecedented. Even in the 30s, this is unprecedented. And I think this is going to Spain, him and Russia for the next few generations. It is one great big war crime. It redefines sovereignty. It redefines the propaganda. It redefines, you know, it redefines all these breaches that he's done, including war crimes. And I think, you know, there are 5,000 investigators in Ukraine now, probably increasing daily, who are investigating and documenting the war crime. And they are going to take these cases. They are already taking these cases to international courts and national courts in Europe, not in the US right now, but maybe. The point is that it's very hard to prevent that those prosecutions and those cases, and ultimately the outcomes of those cases, from getting back to the Russian people and the world. And he and Russia will be stained by the huge amounts of evidence of war crimes in this war. And that he cannot escape that. Well, you know, as in this case that this Russian soldier captured and, you know, submitted to Ukrainian justice, I think that more of this is gonna happen. And as these people get convicted, I think what the message here is that even if you're a Russian soldier and you're going into a Ukrainian town, you are the aggressor. And so, you know, it's a difficult, it's difficult to swallow, any of the Putin lies, you know, about Nazis being in the Ukraine. And once, as I said before, you know, once the Russian soldiers on the ground and doing things, I mean, there have been places where Russian soldiers have been, where they've said, I'm sorry, you know, I didn't know what was going on. And some of those captured have said that, not because they've been forced by the Ukrainian soldiers to do something, you know, under torture or something like this, but just because they realized what they were fighting for was completely wrong. And you know, we've had this experience with the Vietnam War in the United States. And the Russians, just to repeat a story that I love, because it deals with a place that I spent many a year at Putno, when President Medvedev, I'd taken over from Putin and was sitting at dinner at the headmaster's house. And someone asked him about advice for Afghanistan. He didn't hesitate, didn't go through his interpreter and said, get out. And you know, I mean, I'm not quite clear why leaders across the world have not gotten the message that, you know, when you invade, as the British did in our colonies, when you invade an area that and you're fighting against the indigenous people or people that are perhaps not indigenous, but people who have been there before you or and basically know the territory, you know, unless you completely wipe out everybody, this is going to be a war of attrition and you're going to lose eventually, you're going to have to pull out. Either the Russians did it in Afghanistan, they eventually did it in Chechnya, they did it in Georgia. And you know, this is Vladimir Putin's last gas. But you know, I mean, you know, I don't know what, you know, when he looks in the mirror and he says to himself, oh my God, I've just lost Finland and Sweden. And they're going to join the organization and he thinks is the biggest threat. And going back to Russian history into the 19th century, and I mentioned this slightly before, but I'm going to go into it again because I think it's so important. You've always had, since Peter the Great, people who were great Russian nationalists versus people who looked to the West. Gorbachev looked to the West. Yeltsin during the last part of his reign looked to the West. And Vladimir Putin is an intense Russian nationalist. And besides that, he felt, you know, he has this intrinsic notion of terrible, I would think, hurt. You know, this kind of thing is covered in Timothy Snyder's book, Bloodlands. And it's a cultural point, you know, you have these leaders in Russia who like killing and it seems to be happening over and over again, especially in Western Russia, you know, between Russia and Eastern Europe, wherever Eastern Europe may be at a given point in time. And it's been very bloody over the years. And I mean, you can say that Putin is a bad guy and he is certainly a horrible guy, a war criminal. But at the same time, Russia has permitted this sort of thing. It's in the culture. It's in the culture of this area, according to Timothy Snyder's historical reference on it. But let me ask you one question before we run out of time because it's gonna take a little time to address this question. Okay. You know, war of attrition. I mean, there's a lot of things happening that could give you optimism. You know, Zelensky is good. The many protests you see in Russia and the maxi protests you see in Western Europe, the existence and continuation of the coalition, hopefully the $40 billion aid package passes, Finland, Sweden, all that stuff. And the world is taking notice and you're right. I mean, a lot of it is what gets out in the press. The press is more powerful than the guns, actually. However, there is the wild card. There's Trump. And if I am Putin, I am playing that part. I gotta keep this thing going until we see how Trump does. Because if Trump gets back in power, Trump, this is my expectation, Trump will cool it from Putin. He'll give Putin a break and Putin will see that as a huge opportunity to continue his mischievous. So what do you think about that? I mean, Trump is trying hard. There isn't a day that goes by that we don't hear about Trump making outrageous statements and sometimes winning outrageous events of one kind or another politically. And it seems clear that he's gonna be a candidate for 2024. There are yard signs out already in a number of dates for him in 2024. If he wins and gets back in power, I mean, this country has a lot to worry about. Our civil liberties are at great risk. Our government, our democracy is at great risk. But one thing also that's at great risk is Ukraine, is Eastern Europe, is Putin. It would encourage Putin and Trump would give him a pass. What do you think? I think, well, there are two things. First of all, I think the likelihood if there's an election, Joe Biden phases off against Donald Trump again, despite the economy, I don't think that Donald Trump was gonna win. I look at the past elections and if you're an independent, do you vote for Donald Trump? I don't think so. So I don't think that's a great possibility. However, let's say it was, let's say it happened. But you have to remember there's, that's two years away, that election. And in two years, the kind of attrition, I mean, if the attrition occurs at the same level that it's happening now, Russia's gonna be suffering severe losses. And if God forbid, Vladimir Putin decides to use weapons of mass destruction, then I think game is off. And I think, I'm hoping that he realized how good the American military is, because our targets, our military capacity is huge. And we're not gonna be fighting on the ground. We're gonna be fighting in the air. And the American military is second to none. And I just think that it's a losing proposition for Vladimir Putin. And if he launches any kind of weapon of mass destruction, I think then Biden frees himself up and says, okay, that's it. And he goes to his military and says, let's take out some cities. And you're the border, maybe in Russia or something. But then it becomes a bigger war. And I think Biden has been good about that. But I don't think Russia can survive two years of this. I just think that Putin can survive two years of this. If he's forced to do so, his economy is gonna be in shambles. I don't think the Russian people for the next two years are gonna be willing to sacrifice their children. And as you mentioned, the guys that are coming into Ukrainian villages are 18 or 19 years old. But you began with a question, Jay, that I thought was really a droid. And you said, okay, yeah, Vladimir Putin's gonna take over now. Well, we remember what happened when Nicholas II, those of us who study history, decided to take over the reigns of the army in 1916 and 1917. He couldn't get back to his capital. He was deposed. The Bolsheviks took over. And he was shot with his family and he kept to Rinneburg. So not a good idea of Vladimir Putin, not a good idea at all. Unfortunately, these guys lose their historical perspective. And I just, I think, I really do think, Jay, the turning point has occurred already with Sweden and Finland. Because that's a major blow to the geopolitics of Russia. And I think for us in the West, it's a great thing because I'm sure that the Chinese are looking and the Koreans are looking and saying, uh-oh, the West is becoming united and all because we blundered. So I think it makes things safer for Taiwan. It makes the president in North Korea a little bit less hostile, even though he's still pursuing nuclear weapons. So I think all of this is, I think there are good signs. But as I said, in sort of concluding, the New Yorker article, or I should say two articles in the past New Yorker, were really quite fine. And the fact that Ukrainians from abroad are still coming back to their country and defending it and people, especially the men of the country are saying we're not leaving, is really a profound comment about the patriotism and about the spirit of democracy in the Ukraine. Let me leave you with this, Jay, is that I was at, you know, this, it was a Zoom discussion today by the American Jewish University. And there was a discussion of Bob Dylan and the sacredness of Bob Dylan's words. They were comparing Bob Dylan's songs to prayers. And I think blowing in the wind is important for today and the Ukraine. Dylan wants the cannonball to stop firing and he wants people in the last dance of that song to stop dying for God's sake. Much less, of course, to his comments about integration and civil rights. But I think we should all be thinking about blowing in the wind and applying it to the Ukraine and applying it to the Russians in the Ukraine because the Ukrainians are not doing anything to the Russians. It's purely a Vladimir Putin war. An invasion. Well, I have two remarks to make. Thank you for that. Number one is today's a big day because somehow the vote in the Senate on the $40 billion package is another turning point. And it has huge impact, not only in terms of the weapons and support and the aid in general, because it gives Vladimir Putin a handle on what is happening politically in this country with a politicized Senate, which helped him before. The other thing, I think it's always important to say this and I would say it in response to your comments and our discussion in general, Carl, is while we are doing this, we meaning the planet, global warming is increasing and not being handled. COVID for that matter is increasing and not being handled from a collaborative, organized point of view. And I think when you get into this kind of contention, perhaps the greatest crime of all is that as Putin has distracted us from the business of saving the planet and humanity, that's the greatest crime of all. And I would leave you with those thoughts. Carl Ackerman, professor of history, teacher of history, especially in the Eastern European area. Thank you so much for joining us, Carl. And there'll be more news. We'll do this again. Thank you so much. Jay, it's always a pleasure and you were the king of mench. So for those of the audience that don't understand, that just means Jay's a really good person. You too, Carl. Thanks. Thank you so much for watching Think Tech Hawaii. If you like what we do, please like us and click the subscribe button on YouTube and the follow button on Vimeo. 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