 There's the last set of news to get top stories in crypto and bring it on to bite-sized pieces today. We can see that the market is not cooperating and doing what we'd like it to do. So we need to take a look at a deep dive and what is going on. So we're going to take a look at some odd data, some on-chain analysis of what's going on behind the scenes. We're going to take a look at what's oversold and who is actually buying during this whole time. Then we're going to take a look at hedge funds and their four trillion assets in our management and what's happening with that. And finally, we're going to take a look at a report. It was from May of 2021 from Price Waterhouse Coopers. And they're going to talk to us about what works with hedge funds, not what they are doing, but what actually has worked with hedge funds to give them so much over the hump as opposed to just investing into like buy and hold S&P 500. So let's just break into it and see what exactly is happening today. It is Saturday, it is January 8th, and we are below two trillion in a market cap. Who to thunk it, right? We thought that December is going to be fireworks, didn't happen. We thought, okay, maybe January would be a little bit of recovery, hasn't happened quite yet. And we're actually going down. So the question is, what do we do? Well, I can't tell you exactly what to do, but if we take a look at data, things might actually make a little more sense. So Bitcoin price, we're looking at $40,800. And then if we take a look at Ethereum, I think Ethereum is around $3,000. Yeah, $3,040. It'll probably breach below $3K. Tether's not number three spot because everybody's getting tethered up. Binance coin is down. USDC is up a 0.03 percent. Just kidding, it's a stable coin. Solana is down 23 percent for seven days. Cardano, 14 percent for seven days. Terra Luna is down 30 percent roughly in seven days. Avalanche 30, Polygon 25 percent. Chainlink is up 17 percent. That's pretty good. Well, we'll see why in a second. And then on down the road, except for internet, ICP, Internet Computer Protocol, 24 percent up. So that's what's going on in the market. But what we want to take a look at is, first of all, we know this. We know this because as the price goes down, people get extremely fearful. And they do what I consider irrational things because you're not thinking straight and you have to kind of really just sit back and let your emotions go and control them before you do something you might regret later. So we take a look at some data points. And what we're taking a look here is taking a look at CryptoQuant. We're taking a look at six of my favorite charts that they have given us as far as on chain analysis. And like I said in the beginning, this is odd data because we're taking a look at what's going on in the prices and it just really isn't things just aren't matching up. So first of all, here's the minor outflow, meaning who is selling? Our minor is selling because we can see like in the black, here's the price and the green is what miners are selling. We saw back here when there was that big Chinese migration as all the miners had to get booted out and they relocated to mostly Texas and then went to Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan. I always say that wrong. And of course, they're going to get booted out of there now. So they're selling over here. But right now they're not really selling too much. I would have thought that a lot of these Bitcoin players would start to sell off so they could go and move over to well probably Texas. And then also if we take a look here, here's the Bitcoin exchange reserve, meaning all the Bitcoin that is being taken off of the exchanges. And when that goes down, usually we see a little bit of a price fluctuation as far as price goes up because if people are taking Bitcoin off of the exchanges, I guess they're putting it, they're putting in the cold storage, not doing anything with it and they are not going to sell it. But as we've seen it here, we're at an all-time low. I mean, in the last two years or so and we're still going down. Then we take a look at Ethereum exchange reserve. It's even more pronounced. Look at this. Look at how much Ethereum has been taken off of the exchanges and look how the price is going just down, down, down. And then if we over here, take our buy volume just for what is being expressed as far as like who wants to sell? There's a lot of takers out there going, yeah, yeah, you want to sell? I'll buy a selling, selling, selling, and they're just, they're propping the price up. Then this is also strange. Estimated leverage ratio. We saw almost a billion dollars worth of crypto being liquidated just two days ago when we had, I mean, as everything starts to go down. So I would have thought that we would have flushed out all the leverage plays. But we take a look here. Well, this is the six, but still, I mean, this should have gone a little bit down because anything above 0.2 is extremely high. Now we're at 0.22 as far as the 6th of January and doesn't seem to be going down too much. Then here's another one. The MVR ratio, ratio of coins as to its realized cap, which indicates whether the price is overvalued or not. Historically values over 3.7 indicate a price top and values below 1 indicate a price bottom, which is actually pretty good here. So this is the MVRV in purple. See, as it came down here, this was in, whoops, you can't see that. Sorry, you bring it up here. There we are. So see down here as it drops down. This was in March 2020 when we have that big issue with that thing called coronavirus and we dropped below 1. That was pretty much the bottom and started to come back up and then we see it over here and above 3.7 indicated would indicate a top and right around here 3.64 3.8 and it came back down came over here and we had 3.9 and then it came back down, but it doesn't always it's nothing is perfect and we see it kind of break down a little bit here because right over here when it actually hit a very, very low part at 1.6 then it just skyrocketed and now here we are at 1.70 and we keep going down. So it's just to me. It just looks like some very odd data. Then we'll also take a look at longs for shorts because I would have thought that the shorts would have been like, okay, well, we've had our fun. We made a ton of money, but we take a look over. Let's just brag this up in the last five minutes. Where are things going? Well, it looks like the green is in the green of the longs in the red of the shorts. You've got a lot of people. Preach even a bit next going extremely long as opposed to shorts, but if we take a look at like the one hour usually starts to equal out there a bit. You got a bunch of shorts there 12 hours and then 24 little bit more long than there are shorts. So it's just interesting to see where things are going. So like I said, when we take a look at this data, it just just seems odd that we have a lot of people taking Bitcoin off, Ethereum off, crypto off the exchanges yet the market tends to just go down and down and down. So what is happening? Well, to put it simply, there's more buyers or there's more sellers than there are buyers and there's a bunch of people selling like crazy and that's what's going on. I think people like we talked about the greed and fear index, they're pretty scared. So then that brings me to our next point then. So if everybody is this odd data, then how much is being sold and how at what kind of level? Well, if we take a look, there's a little quick little article from you today. Ethereum is now the most oversold. It has been in almost two years, almost two years. Ethereum's most ever been as far as sold as far and taking a look at the RSI. So the index is currently staying or RSI at a value below 30. The last time Ethereum's technical indicator reached the same levels was March 2020. During the crisis on financial markets caused by the pandemic or the coronavirus. And you can see right here over time, we are at an all time low over the last two years. So that is super oversold. Ethereum is being oversold like crazy. Just very odd, especially with how it's been responsive to DeFi, but everything's been been sold pretty high. So the next question is, well, who's buying? What are they buying? Well, if we take a look at, there's a nice little one called whale stats. You got one called ETH whale. Satzema just bought 723,000 worth of Matic or 1.5 million. Just scoop it up like nobody's business. Then another ETH whale. This was just 15 hours ago, but almost two points over 2.6 million dollars worth of Chainlink. And then also you've got another ETH whale just bought another Matic at almost $5 million worth. Wow. And ETH whale just bought WBTC 2.5 million. So if we take a look at things that are going on behind the scenes, there's a lot of people that are selling, but there's the few that have this powder on the side that are just buying like crazy, which is why it's so important that when I talk about these things like dollar cost average and dollar cost average out, you gotta take profits. You can't just keep going. I'm going to hold forever. I mean, you can do that. I mean, I'm not, I'm not a financial advisor. I can't tell you what to do. This is a financial opinion, a financial advice, but I hear and I see a lot of these things in the comments section where people go, you know what? I wish I had the opportunity to buy more, but I don't because I never took any profits. So let that be a warning. If you are in that position, if you're not, I feel like, you know what? I'm holding forever. Then great. Hold forever. It's all up to you what you want to do. My goals are not your goals. So then we take a look at that about what's going on. Then what are we going to, what are we taking a look as far as long term? Well, if we take a look at where things are going where the hockey puck is moving, check this out. Now we know that hedge funds, only four hedge funds have actually beat a basic buy and hold strategy as far as the S&P 500, four out of all of them. And this one just shows you where the winners actually were. This was a great little story or a little snippet that came up just an hour ago from Reuters hedge funds and challenging 2020 with 10.3% gain. This is all over over the entire year. This is from HFR hedge fund report states hedge funds bounce back in December to end a challenging year on a strong note and deliver broad base returns of 10.3%. The third best performance since 2009 industry figures showed the annual gain was weaker than the previous year is almost 18% increase and fell even further short of the S&P 500 indexes rise of 27%. So again, if you just put money into the S&P 500 you would have just been fine just just buying and holding and doing absolutely nothing. As opposed to hedge funds like we have all this quantitative data and we can show you how it does. You only four of you beat them. This is the big thing. It's going to lead me to my next point. The hedge fund industry data provider all said that total hedge fund assets in 2021 topped 4 trillion for the first time. So here's the thing. We've got these hedge funds and they're tying up a bunch of money and a bunch of this money is let's be honest. It's not me and you because we know where we can go and actually invest our are our hard earned dollars into usually in crypto and usually in a plethora of different places. But there's a lot of people who have a lot of money usually older that they want to use a hedge fund because if you're a multi-millionaire and a hedge fund can get you 10 percent returns what's better than what you're going to put in the bank. I know it sounds weird but that's the mentality of some of these people like wow you give me 10 percent. Great. I put in 10 million and I got another million. Well fantastic. Thanks so much. I really don't mind paying that 1% fee or whatever it is our 2% probably. So if we take a look at that here's the thing this money that's just sloshing around out there and a lot of people think the money's with Gen X and Millennials and whatever else not with baby boomers with older people. That's that's who has a ton of money but they've been doing the same thing for so long that they don't really see an issue with it. But as time goes on that's going to flip because of people like us who realize that 10% yearly return is not that great and this leads me to my last point which is there was a report and it came out in May of 2021 by Price Waterhouse Coopers and it's it's eerie how accurate this report actually is and it's going to lead us into what's going to happen in 2022. So let me bring that up right now. Let's go over there's just a couple of things. It's very long. It's like I want to say 63 pages but here's the highlights. So the size of the market as far as crypto hedge funds are only talking about crypto hedge funds not the traditional ones we're going to get to that at the very bottom and this is what it sets states there's four parts the size of the market total assets under management of crypto hedge funds increased to nearly check this out 3.8 billion in 2020 from 2 billion the previous year 3.8 billion they are as far as asset management you're looking at 4 trillion total the medium AUM at fund launch is a million dollars indicating that funds have generally seen impressive 15 x increase and asset management this is the good part performance and fees the median best performance strategy in 2020 was discretionary long only meaning buy and hold discretionary long only plus 294% fall by discretionary long shorts plus 120% and a multi strategy of 114% so this brings me to the crux before we get into some other stuff one of the basic strategies is buying and holding so right now you're probably in that index fear green greed some of you are mostly you're probably aren't you prevent by been here but the buy and hold strategy statistically is one that beats everything else out there and we're going to go into a little more detail so investor type the vast majority of investors in crypto are either hiding out with individuals boomers or some of the people younger people have money to 54% or family offices 30% the median ticket size is about $400,000 while the average ticket size in the US is one million so millionaires just come in and go here's my money make me 10% because the banks only give me 0.02% the fund strategies and this is there's a difference the performance and fees for the fund or the fund performance versus the fund strategy I need you to key on this the most common crypto hedge fund strategy is quantitative where they take a look at all this data and they go you know based on this and based on our analysis we're going to put in this this this this that's 37% of funds but if we take a look at the performance of fees that's not in there there wasn't really that much if you take a look at this discretionary longs and shorts discretionary that's 28% of what they do and discretionary long only is only 20% so one out of five of what the fund strategy actually is is actually the one that they should all do because it's the one that works the best buying holding discretionary longs and then let's move forward the rest of this puts you to sleep and this now so here's another one 2020 versus 2019 crypto hedge fund and median performance comparison discretionary long only in 2019 was only 10% which I mean in all honesty if every hedge fund out there got this they probably be doing pretty well and their clients would be happy but in 2020 it was 294% what do you think they did in 2021 probably a lot better overall the crypto hedge fund in our sample had a median performance of 184% last year vastly higher than 2019 and different strategies have yielded different levels of performance neither was able to outperform Bitcoin itself which went up 305% during 2020 management fees are to 2% she's that's crazy and then to finish this up there's two things to go over distribution of Bitcoin price predictions for the end of 2021 this was all the different crypto hedge funds they nailed it they thought it would be between 50 and $100,000 by the end of 2021 I guess that's pretty much it and then distribution of crypto market cap prediction and they thought it'd be between 2-5 trillion they nailed that too and actually they were pretty close one or two and two to five they actually nailed it pretty well so it's not like it's all bad it's just that's just that's what that's what they saw and they were at 100% correct and then lastly and this is the this was the one that concerned me the most because it just shows a lack of not gonna how do I say this effectively this is just a lack of courage that's what it comes down to because this right here in this last part is all about traditional hedge funds and they asked him this question what are your main challenges when it comes to investing in digital assets and the number one reason the number one reason they gave was this client reaction and reputational risk 67% said that was their main challenge the other one was regulatory and certainty okay I can get that I got you and 50% next one current service provider available availability lack of infrastructure they have that right now there's plenty of places that can help you with custody lack of deep and liquid traditional synthetic indirect products ETFs futures options you got a futures right now and volatility of asset prices will sure it's volatile but that's where all the magic is so again if we can summarize all this stuff buying and holding works out pretty well I think hedge funds if we there was a data point that I talked about a couple of days ago even Georgia where crypts are as talked about it in depth he says you know for these hedge fund managers out of all the different hedge funds only four out of all of them beat S&P 500 I talked about this like I think it was like three or four days ago as well and it just to me if you're a hedge fund and you want to be on top why wouldn't you just go into crypto and digital assets especially the 2021 year that we had we didn't have a blow off top it didn't raise up artificially or just some some massive amount it went up pretty slowly and then we went down if I was a hedge fund manager and I own a company and I was you know pretty much on the French the first thing I would do is look at crypto because over the last two years it's done pretty damn well and I think if they can get into it and bring those for that $420,000 and then we can get the whole narrative going I think it could be a home run anyhow that's what I have for today so I hope that puts some of your fears at ease I know it's a turbulent time but that's what's going on so look like today's video give it thumbs up I'll consider subscribing a lot of things to talk about are very time sensitive that's it for today so thanks so much for watching I appreciate it see you in the next one