 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Another game with big playoff implications in the AFC coming up tonight We got the Patriots at the Cardinals for Monday night football the Patriots trying to get back in that seven seed and keep pace With the Chargers and the Jets in the AFC We're gonna break down that game from a betting perspective with Orion Williams get his read on that one And hopefully find you some winning bets over at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and a number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire joined here as mentioned by Ryan Williams Check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan. Happy Monday to you. How you doing today? Oh happy Monday to you as well Jim It was the one of the Sundays that we'll just put we'll just put in the vault We don't talk about that anymore, but did have some good reads on the game. I believe we talked about Jacksonville Plus three and a half if Trevor Lawrence was playing Got the Buccaneers totally wrong So I will you know, right? I will ride out with with that one But there are some other good games that that I liked Philly as well a couple overs So, you know successful weekend from from the betting side of things DFS Yeah, we won't talk about it, but we got a fun Monday night one ahead of us that should That should be real interesting here. So I'm curious to pick your brain as well, too I'm actually glad I don't have a ton in this game and I'm glad about that because I finally have like a good week From a betting perspective. It's been a rough year overall. So they actually have a good week I'm like, okay, I'm gonna let this week sit and I'm not gonna add to it We're gonna like let it hang we're gonna take the profits and move on to the next week because I just like I just needed to win and we got that this week. So it was good It felt good to have a good read on you mentioned the Jags game the over and the Jags and that once that was fun The only one that didn't go well was that Seahawks game But you know, that's the if that's the lone dark spot of the day I'll definitely take it like you mentioned We're gonna break down in this Patriots at Cardinals game talk about the traditional markets at Fandall Sportsbook And also player prop markets to get you set for tonight But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We of course are an Apple podcast Spotify stitcher Google podcast wherever you get your podcast you can find us there And while you're there if you like what you hear be feel free to leave us a rating and review as well because those do help us out a bunch with only a handful of Monday night football games remaining this season Fandall and visa are coming together to make sure the excitement surrounding Monday nights is at an all-time high Introducing Monday night perfect picks presented by visa a free to play contest on Fandall That gives you a chance to win a share of $10,000 in cash prizes courtesy of visa. Here's how it works You'll be presented with 10 questions centered around on field action from Monday nights NFL game fans who answer The most questions correctly when they're share of the $10,000 prize pool. It's that easy the contest is now live So head to fandall.com slash free slash contest slash visa perfect picks and make your picks before Monday night That's fandall.com slash free slash contest slash visa perfect picks no purchase necessary age and location restrictions apply Void were prohibited see full terms of fandall.com Visa and its financial institutions have not sponsored or offered this motion in any way Let's dive in now to this game Ryan talk about the Patriots and the Cardinals will talk about where the betting markets are right now But from a top-down perspective What's to read on this game because I gotta be honest Ryan? I don't have a good read on it So I'm gonna lean on you here. What you got? Yeah, I mean, this is probably one of the biggest like a polar opposite dichotomy Jucks the position things that we could probably run into on a Monday night So let's start with the Patriots. You got the Patriots coming in here off of a loss from last Thursday So Bella check, you know, we're talking about a ton of rest You know against the spread off of a loss this dude has been absolutely Incredible when the Patriots have been favored by seven or less He's looking at like a 79% win rate in that regard and obviously he's been doing this for a long time We know how good the Patriots were Monday time Brady after a loss So a lot of that has been under that regime the Cardinals on the other hand have been absolutely awful at home One in five straight up this season. I believe Kyler Murray is one in ten In the last 11 home games With the Arizona Cardinals it so just like an ugly spot and we just don't love taking the Arizona Cardinals at home for Whatever reason they're better on the road. So and then and then you talk about just like The total on this game being 43 and a half like the Patriots cannot they haven't been able to meet this number in their past Couple of games. I mean, you know, even with when we talk about the Mac Jones versus Bailey's api saga That was early on this season since Mac Jones has been playing like the offense Just has been able to get going Remondria Stevenson in struggle and then the Cardinals on the other side They've been hitting the overs Pretty much every chance they can get with the Andre Hopkins returning back and now we got him Marquis Brown Greg Dorch all playing together. So, I mean really it really does make it tough I'm gonna say that I do like the Patriots here just from a coaching standpoint and the way that they do like to play especially on defense Even with Arizona being fully healthy like we've seen them in these spots before and just mail it in for whatever reason On the other side though, I do like the over for whatever that's worth Like Arizona just seems to still find ways to be able to put up points regardless of who they're facing And then that's really where we like, you know, Mac Jones For whatever it's worth, you know, Patricia and co. They'll let him open it up and you know Maybe we can get Devonte Parker get going Remondria Stevenson We would love to see him get going with the injuries to the Patriots backfield So that's a long-winded way of saying that there's a numerous Numerous ways that I can see this game going but I'm going to lean on the Patriots side just from what they've shown me from a historical fashion Yeah, I think that the coaching aspect is a pretty major key here because when I run my numbers for this game It has the Patriots by point eight five and the Patriots by point eight two depending which body you look at So both very similar and both very similar to the market and then when you toss in it's Cliff Kingsbury versus Bill Belichick I think that one and a half is like the perfect number. I think that that is pretty much right where it should be so that's why I feel comfortable making this just to stay away from my perspective because I Just don't want to deal with that if it is a confusing game. It is that way I don't want to deal with that now I think that the coaching aspect is also part of the reason why I'm having a hard time Getting into the card because I think that you know, I like think about it in terms of like paths You know, what's the path to the Cardinals winning this game or covering, you know, you know, effectively the same thing at this point the path to that is Using Kyler Murray as a runner because the one thing we've seen the Patriots struggle a lot with this year is Rushing quarterbacks. You saw Justin Fields. That was like his coming out party was against the Patriots Josh Allen's giving them issues with the Jets like almost called up Chris Trevler from their practice squad Just to be like a rushing quarterback in the game at one point like There are a lot of teams that have given them issues when they use their quarterback as a runner and you could say, okay Kyler can run maybe that can get some issues, but Do you trust this coaching staff to do that? Like analyze the situation properly and be like, okay, we're gonna focus on getting Kyler Involved as a rusher. Does Kyler want to be involved as a rusher? I don't know like So like even if I try to talk myself into the Cardinal side of things I can't because there's no trust from my perspective of this coaching staff to recognize Those discrepancies and take advantage Yeah Exactly, I mean, you know, Cliff's got to show us something here and the way that the NFC West has been going I mean, you know, they're probably out of it I think if they if they lose this game depending on the picture, but it's been You know, pretty much a crapshoot all season long But you know, if he if he's not able to get them, you know to the promised land and then win a game You know in the postseason with this team the way that this roster is set up like I just feel like this is pretty much the end of The road. I don't know what else he can, you know, what else he needs to do or show us to show that he You know really belongs in this in this league, you know coaching from an aspect like they they just can't get it together Him and Kyler have had their bouts on the sidelines a couple times this season already already. So Yeah, I love I just love being able to take a side that I can trust here And this New England defense has really been underrated and can cause them some fits Especially if they're not gonna make Kyler mobile, which I don't think we can trust at this point if the regime is doing it But Kyler has been able to you know, he has the Madden playbook pretty much on that risk Like he just makes his own audible. He presses the buttons and we'll see if he can get it going for him I think I think that that'd be like a live betting opportunity If you are watching this game and see okay in that opening script if they use Kyler as a weapon Then maybe you look into the cartwheels if you don't see that Stay away like that's that's kind of the way the read I would have on it So I would try to get a read on the opening couple of drives See if they're willing to use Kyler in that mark in that fashion And if they are that could push me towards Arizona But I would need to see it before I buy in because the trust factor trust level in this coaching staff is Really not existent. Now. Let's talk about the Patriots side here and talk about some props on their end You mentioned Ramon where Stevenson the efficiency has not been there But he's had a lot of volume with no Damian Harris Harris doubtful first night. She could be Myers is also out So there's volume to be had in this Patriots offense. Does that open up any value on their side of things for you? From a value standpoint not really these wide receivers have been tough to trust all year I mean Devante Parker hasn't really done anything in the past couple weeks since week 12 But you know without Jacobi Myers, I'm sure he'll be leaned on Could probably see a little bit more from Kendrick born a little bit more from Nelson Aguilore and then you know Tycoon Thornton has pretty much been an afterthought since he kind of broke onto the scene earlier in the year But he's still always just hanging out there The real pieces that are interesting for me and we can touch on later from an anytime touchdown standpoint But the Titan or the Titans the Titans the tight ends For New England it in both Hunter Henry and John New Smith to a certain extent like these guys You know We look at a couple years back when they both were coming on the team like paid in contracts Like these are the spots that these guys were brought in for because this is pretty much the supreme matchup That a tight end can experience all season long going against this Arizona defense There's no Byron Murphy, which just they're secondary even more thin So I really love getting over on the props For the tight end specifically Hunter Henry who's really shown that he's had a rapport with Mac Jones at points in this season The yardage prop for him is one that I think you know He could probably hit in the first half if things are breaking their way and especially if this game does reach the Over as I'm expecting it to I really do like the tight ends here And you know John who to a certain extent and like I said, we'll touch on that later But yeah, love Hunter Henry Could probably talk myself into some props in the wide receiver market But really just gonna look at the the passing options for or the passing props for Mac Jones in this one It's mostly with the over two. You're looking at him over one and a half touchdowns being plus 146 I believe was the last time I checked on the Fandalsports book Like that's a supreme number in a game that you can that I'm expecting to go over. So, you know, I think for me It's Mac Jones with the past catchers Is where I start Remundry Stevenson, he's really even though the backfield is all to himself He's just struggled as of late for whatever reason. He hasn't hit like over 75 yards, which you know with no Damien Harris and Games pass to the beginning of the season and in the last season like we would be smashing this All over the place You can see that Fandals still has some respect on him when it comes to the touchdown prop Is he's right around there with James Connor is one of the favorites But from a yardage standpoint, it really makes me worried to to get behind them here But would not surprise me. I didn't see if we had a line here for the receiving prop That could be an interesting one to get Remundry Stevenson going as he's you know Been known to be the past catching back when James White was not gonna be on this roster here in the off-season going into the season They really told us that this was gonna be James White 2.0 So let's see if we can see that on primetime with him catching some passes The receiving prop for a Andre is 34 and a half receiving yards He's over four and a half receptions at like minus 150, which is a lot. So that's that's tough I think that though with Stevenson you mentioned how he's been the primary pass catcher I agree with that and that's why I think I initially like I pulled up the Rushing tab and looked at the rushing plus receiving. I was like, okay, you know, I know he's got this good role Maybe I can snag it over on her mind right here. It was 113 and a half. That's a massive massive number And I was like, okay So do I take the under on this instead and the past catching aspect kept coming into my head of like, okay He's probably gonna get seven targets seven targets gives you a pretty obvious path to it over there But then you get the rushing prop it's a 75 and a half I think that's a pretty good value to go under on that number because they're not a good running team right now Their offensive line has had some injuries. He has not gone over 75 and over 75 rushing yards since week six He has done it twice all year now granted those were in games where Damian Harris is out So, you know, those are the more relevant samples, but recently here They lost him early in the Minnesota game Minnesota very good rush defense Buffalo's a pretty good rush defense, too It's understandable. He didn't get there in those games, but 75 and a half is still a big number for the rushing specifically So I think I take a look at both those numbers the rushing yards for a modern Stevenson the rushing plus receiving consider unders on those because Justifiably, they're very high But also they're very high So I think that that's where I'd be there as far as the past catchers go The one guy who did catch my attention was Nelson Aguilar at the 29 and a half He has had a better role than he's had recently the past three games and he's only gone over this number once in that span But we should come Myers was playing and for the majority of those games not Thanksgiving Aguilar did go for 65 receiving yards. So he has the ability to get down there Mack Jones, you know, he can chuck it down field. Should he don't know but he can And occasionally will so I do have interest in Aguilar there I think that if I were picking out a prop based on the ones we've discussed my Favorite would be the Stevenson rushing under 75 and a half because you know, you need him to go off in that regard Specifically, but I do think that the Patriots side is the one that brings more value for this this game Yeah, and just to let the people know so Hunter Henry 30 and a half yards there minus 113 like absolutely love that Yeah, and even I mean to a certain extent to I do love Devante Parker at 39 and a half He has not been getting there, but again without Jacoby Myers there like Mack Jones is gonna find some security blankets somewhere and Devante Parker has shown us that he does have the propensity to get things going You know when given the chance. So just hoping that the opportunity kind of goes his way I'd be willing to get on that number as well, too And again downfield targets to those can get you there in a hurry now Let's talk about the other side which is kind of the opposite where the Patriots are losing key players the Cardinals are gaining them no Rondell Moore here. He's still out with a groin injury, but this is the first time we've seen them I believe with Deandre Hopkins Marquise Brown and Greg d'Orch all active now that means What's Brown's role gonna be he played a lot of slots asked before their bye week and now d'Orch is back Which means d'Orch will probably be in the slot and we've seen Kyler go that direction quite a bit this year But it's also Greg d'Orch who I adore, you know full respect to him But it's him versus Marquise Brown and Deandre Hopkins, right? So I don't know how to read the past catching situation here So my inclination is to say just no, thanks and I'll avoid do you a different read? What's your read on the Cardinal side of things here? Yeah, I mean they You know, well the Marquise Brown thing is just frustrating because last week They told us that he was gonna be on a pitch count and then this guy goes out there in place 97% of the snaps So, um, yeah, I mean I think they could use all the firepower that they can get We you know the the cat is not out of the bag with the way that you beat this Patriots team I mean you cannot run on this team the best runner in the past couple weeks was Justin Fields when he put up 82 yards And then outside of that they've been stopping some of the best running backs in the game and Nick Chubb and Dalvin Cook and things that nature from even getting you know to 60 Yards, which I think is right around the prop before they have James Conner at 59 and a half So they got a lean on the past catchers here In this game and especially like I said in the over like I'm willing to get on some of these guys the Andre Hopkins He comes in at 75 and a half yards, which kind of feels a little bit lofty But when you know that that's the best chance that they have to move the ball downfield I think that there there's some merit to that We have no Marquise Brown line at this current juncture on the Fandalsworth I'll be curious to see what his number comes in at but I am interested also in the Deandre Hopkins Reception profit over six and a half is plus money Like they he could just get peppered with targets like in in this situation Especially the way that the Patriots been don't break defense kind of kind of plays between the 20s So I think that that does have some merit to it. And then while James Conner I don't really love him from a rushing standpoint and not really going to look at his rushing and receiving Because of that look but his receiving profit over 18 and a half like that we could see some dump-offs there The Patriots loved the pressure on the quarterback And if Kyler like you mentioned earlier is not going to take off and run in a way that could be a path to success for them I expect him to kind of dump it off to To Conner here there has been a couple games here Where he's seen around three catches Just last week against the the Chargers And then against the Rams as well too and kind of hitting around that number like 20 yards 17 yards 19 yards So he does have the propensity to kind of take one there. I think there is some interest in His over is three and a half at plus 150. He's had two five reception games Both of those coming at home here in deep tough defensive matchup. So I think there's some merit there But yeah, I'm looking at the pass cutters When it comes to the Arizona Cardinals because that's your best bet to kind of get over on this Doing good Patriots defense. Yeah, I'm curious where Dorch will come in once his props are posted. They're not up yet Um, but I'm curious where he settles in because of the role. We've seen this guys have, you know I think this is one where it's really going to depend on what the market says This this is true of every single bet depends on what the market says But if the market comes in is like, okay, Kyler loves targeting a slot guys We're going to juice Dorch all the way up to like, you know So put put his prop at a respectable range then I'd be looking for unders because like, okay They sure he targeted the slot a lot, but it wasn't with deandre hopkins and marquis brown being healthy But I could also see a situation where They don't you know, give him a lot of interest and maybe then you're looking at a situation where you could potentially bend over so I want to look at a Wherever we see the Dorch numbers come in and kind of get a read on that I don't like You kind of have to judge it for yourself Because it's gonna I think this is a very volatile market But I would look towards the Dorch numbers and see if there's any value there that can't be had once those are posted later on I think he'll be involved. I don't think he'll be as involved as he was But that could still be enough within this offense now. You mentioned hunter henry You talked about some johnny smith for touchdown numbers right now hunter henry is plus 330 pretty good number You also have johnny smith at plus 550 greg dorch is plus 430 as well. That is one The one dorch prop that is posted. What touchdown props you seeing right now that you like if any Yeah, I mean the hunter henry run is the one that sticks out to me there at plus 330 We've seen him, you know, but be able to find a groove here as far as red zone targets go on the team Um, especially again, no jacoby meyers there. I do think johnny smith is interesting just because of the way that he's utilized You know close to the line of scrimmage Maybe without damien harris being there They try and get him some some runs As they get closer to the end zone, which I think would be an interesting way to scheme him an east plus 550 They're still having the favorable tied in match up when they can use him if they choose to go with that personnel so They have a little interest there, but really my favorite would be hunter henry. I do also think that uh When we're getting gendry hopkins at plus money here at plus 140 like when they get close to the red zone there I expect him to have that big body Be able to utilize that and then keller murray as well at plus 290 Um, you know, if there's a broken play, I don't think you know, they're going to be stacking the box when it comes Uh anywhere close to the red zone there from the new england side of things So maybe they try and get him out on a boot um and can sneak him in there at plus, you know At three to one yards. I'm willing to take a quarterback on that run Uh murray one is interesting plus 290, especially because like it kind of gets you access to the Thought process of the patron's struggle to stop running quarterbacks without having to bet on the cardinals Which is great. You know, I don't really want that stress in my life He did a rush to touchdown last week and he has been decently willing to run Since he came back from that injury, I guess only one game But seven rush attempts there before the injury he was running a bit more too So maybe that one is kind of interesting plus 290 for any time touchdown on keller murray going back to hunter henry Do you have a preference? You had we have the receiving yardage over 30 and a half the any time touchdown plus 330 If you were picking one of those, which one do you think is the better route for getting exposure to hunter henry? I think the I think the henry run Henry receiving yards bet is going to be my favorite one of his You know just when you're getting plus 330 there I'm always willing to kind of dabble at three to one and above on these touchdown props, especially when I like a player You know to to really hit the over on their line because I just think the involvement kind of lends itself to that But but yeah the receiving prop for him to just get over 31 yards is one that I'm willing to take for sure Okay, so we are all in on hunter henry. We'll see if keller murray can Get this offense chugging along and we'll see if I Regrette rooting against remander stevensson because I adore him and don't want to do that But hey bedding can make us do some regrettable things for sure in that regard That is all that we got here for today for this Monday night football preview But we got shows coming up all this entire week all my first look week number 15 That feels weird coming up tomorrow breaking down what my numbers are saying there and also recapping this past week Also, I think I'm going to take a look at my power rankings and rank out those talk about those in the show I haven't been doing that. I think that might be a good thing that we'll talk about power rankings Games I like for week 15 and much more tomorrow. We've got some more world cup discussion coming up this week So plenty of good stuff coming here on covering the spread including ryan back with us on thursday To talk about week number 15 ryan I want to thank you for swinging by for today Enjoy tonight's game and I'll talk to you once again thursday to break down the full slate Sounds good my friend. You enjoy it as well. And yeah, we'll gear up for week 15 We're winding down to the season there and it's uh, it's coming at us fast, but uh, appreciate it. Jim. Good luck, man Yeah, it's a convergence of being sad about that but also being excited for the playoffs It's uh, it's always that that time of year for me for sure That is ryan williams checking out on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w i'm on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a Nnes good luck to all you tonight. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network