 Welcome everybody, welcome to those folks who are still coming on. I'm happy also to see people from Angola, from Buenos Aires, from Bavaria, from Vancouver, my father on the call from North Carolina and the United States. Welcome everybody, good afternoon, good evening, good morning, wherever you are. My name is Ethan Earl and I'm happy to be here with you for today's event, another season in hell French municipal election. It's an event that is hosted by the Rosa Luxembourg-Schtifton Brussels office. This event is bilingual in English and French. If you do not speak both languages, you can access simultaneous interpretation using the button at the bottom of your screen. I will now quickly give the floor to Nessie Machouche, a colleague working at the Rosa Luxembourg-Schtifton Brussels office to introduce themselves and to say a few introductory words to our French speakers on the call. Thank you Ethan. Good evening everyone, I'm very happy to be here with you tonight for this event, to talk about the elections that just took place this Sunday in France. Ethan introduced me, my name is Nessie Machouche. I work at the Brussels office of the Rosa Luxembourg-Schtifton Brussels. Just a few words about the Rosa Luxembourg-Schtifton it is not necessarily very well known yet in France, it is a foundation of political education and a think tank that is affiliated to the left-wing delinquents. It is really a pleasure for us today to re-transcribe this event which also marks the continuation of the work that came from Ethan on France and of political analysis and presentation to the public sometimes we start with the French questions. A very small word about the interpretation precisely as it is a webinar in B-Ling, you have a button at the bottom of your screen on the right which says interpretation. So you can choose the English channel or the French channel depending on whether you want to listen to the whole webinar in English or the French webinar. So just a word about the interpretation button so if you want to hear all the webinars in English you choose the English channel on the bottom of your screen under interpretation or the French channel if you want to hear it in French and if you are B-Ling of course you have nothing to do just listen to the webinar in its entirety. I pass the word to Ethan. All right so let's get started. On the Sunday most recently the 28th of June voters across France went to the polls to decide the municipal government of 4,820 communes including all of the country's largest cities. The vote took place a record breaking 100 days after the first round election in which around 35,000 communes voted in the EU's largest single municipal election. With the COVID-19 pandemic forcing a second round delay leaving those municipal governments with no first-ground winner and a sort of a strange limbo at a critical moment all eyes were on these results and what they would portend for the future of French politics. If you've seen a single headline about Sunday's result it probably alludes to a green wave having washed across France and indeed lead candidates associated with the Green Party, EELV the Greens they're known defeated right-wing incumbents in the EU capital of Strasbourg the third largest city in France Lyon and the second largest city in France Marseille and in the important port city Bordeaux which had been held by the right for more than 70 years. So today we're going to dig beneath the surface of that headline that green wave headline talk a bit more about the surrounding context and what comes next in French politics. We will touch on what to make of the Greens, the possibilities of a broader left alliance in France, the far right and where Macron is heading from here. For this event we have three great co-sponsors they are Jacob and magazine based out of the United States, Ricochet based out of Canada and Neuzdeutschland in Germany all are also partners in our fees and in hell political analysis series which is hosted by Rosa Luxemburg Stichtung Russell's office. Today we're going to hear from two great speakers, two journalists, the first Cole Stangler who's an independent journalist he contributes regularly to Jacob Ben. He has also been published in the Washington Post in the New York Times in France 24 all over the place and we're also very happy to have with us Pauline Groll who is a journalist for Mediapod the most important I think I can say safely left media in France at this moment. So without further ado I think let's go ahead and jump right in to our first question. We're going to have a series of questions and go back and forth between our two speakers and let them come into conversation with each other. I will give a final reminder to our speakers to speak slowly being interpreted and I'll also say quickly to our audience that you can ask questions in the Q&A box at the bottom of the webinar and Nesim will be taking a look at those and we'll ask a few questions to our two panelists towards the end of the session. So just starting right at the top and very simply and I would like to ask Pauline to speak first and then Cole what from your perspective is the single biggest takeaway from this election? What is the single number one takeaway from the Sunday election Pauline? In fact they did not take any city contrary to what they hoped for. I think it's the first time that a majority in power has made such a bad score in reality to municipal elections and we see what is quite impressive is the failure of the Republic in March, especially in Paris, where Agnès Buzin who was Minister of Health who presented himself as candidate for the REM against Rashida D'Ati and Annie Dalgo have not been elected at all to the municipal council, even though Cédric Villani who was here in the REM and in any case Deputy Marshal, as well as Marlène Schiappa who is Minister of Women's Rights or Gaspar Ganzer. We also see cooking failures for example at Strasbourg or Alain Fontanel who was an former socialist passed the Republic in March to fail in a triangular in front of, I don't know if we can hear well if there is the translation, it works. Well in any case for Strasbourg here is Alain Fontanel lost the city and it is an ecologist who brought it up before also Gabriel Atal who is Minister failed, to Lyon obviously, Gérard Colombe it is a historical defeat for him and in Bordeaux there was an alliance between jupéistes and macronists who failed against an ecologist candidate. So we still note that there is Edouard Philippe, the Prime Minister who brought his city from Avres but it is a bit of a success in trompe-leuil because you have to remember that Edouard Philippe is not adherent to the Republic in March and neither of the republicans in fact he does not have a map and he is still in the opinion of a political leader on the right so we see that in fact we will see maybe later but both Europe Ecology and the green and the socialist party have actually recovered a part of the electorate of 2017 of the Republic in March which is an electorate of left-wing centers which in the municipal has decided to put their voices on lists either socialist or ecologist so here it is really the failure of the republic in March which is to be noted even if I still specify that some ministers have been elected but it is especially people who come from the right for example Gérald Darmanin in the first round in Turquoise, nevertheless he was elected with very very few electors so it is a success the same in 2010. Okay great thanks for that yeah I do think that we're having a problem with the interpretation to to to English from French I'm not sure if it's happening in the two channels but it seems to be coming from the interpreter's side I'm not sure about that but I would ask the interpreter just to check we hear that the French original is fine the translation is inaudible so please do try to check it might be a question of putting on headphones or it might be feedback from your speaker in the meantime we're going to switch back to English so this won't be a problem for our next question thanks for that Pauline and go back to Cole with the same question your biggest takeaway do you agree with Pauline would you reiterate our point do you have anything else to add yeah I'm going to try to speak slowly first I have a tendency to speak very fast I'm going to force myself to go slowly here for the you even you even said that kind of quickly Cole actually all right I think I think Pauline brings up a good point I agree that's a that's a really important takeaway and one also that that hasn't been highlighted enough kind of getting submerged under under this this narrative of a green wave a very poor score for Emmanuel Macron's party but I think I think another point that's really at least one that really sticks out to me is the low turnout telling me I you know I come from the United States we talk about turnout when we talk about elections in France people tend to talk about extension i.e. the the portion of those who don't go out to vote and we saw a really historic number here for the for the municipal elections obviously they're taking place in a very particular context with the COVID crisis the fact that you have this unheard of delay between the first and the second round so I think the the COVID crisis clearly is is responsible to at least for some to some degree but there also is something else that's that's going on here and I think most political scientists observers of French politics would recognize that just to give you some numbers that's really underline how how weak the turnout was here so going from the French method which is the you measure abstention so those who did not show up to vote the second round of this municipal election so the round that was held on Sunday we saw almost 60 percent of those registered to vote not show up for that second round so 60 percent compared to if you look at the figures from 2014 the second round of the 2014 municipal elections 38 percent so you have a huge spike around 20 percent of people between 2014 and 2020 not showing up and if you go back to to 2001 we had a 30 percent abstention rate so essentially you have low turnout in the municipal elections doubling from over the last over the last two decades and it's not just the municipal elections this is a phenomenon that's really been taking taking place across France in different electoral scenarios if you look at the parliamentary elections the legislative elections that elect the national assembly that elected Macron's majority in 2017 that was the highest the lowest turnout ever in the history of the Fifth Republic I should say as well I forgot that the the big punchline at the beginning this municipal turnout was the lowest second round turnout in the in the French Fifth Republic so parliamentary elections historic historic levels of historically low levels of turnout was 57 percent in 2017 of those not showing up I mean even even if you look at the presidential election the most recent presidential election between Macron and Le Pen one with huge stakes one in which the far right candidate was was had had probably the strongest shot ever despite being a heavy underdog still with a very heavy a lot of stakes in that election you still had 25 percent of people not showing up to that vote that was the highest level since the late 60s so I think obviously we're in a very particular context here with the with the health crisis in these elections but if we look at these elections in the context of a broader electoral participation in France it's part of a it's part of a larger trend and I think that's something that that really stuck with me looking at these results so Cole has immediately anticipated my next question and Pauline in fact anticipated a further question a question further down the line I'm going to let Pauline say a few more words about this issue of abstentionism but I do just to add a comment of my own it was notable on election evenings that Jean-Luc Mélenchon the head of France and Soumy is referred to a civic strike so would you go this far certainly I think that we do need to keep in mind to play the other side the the the situation with the pandemic I saw a poll where 43 percent of respondents who did not attend who did not participate in the election that's the reason was fear of the pandemic if that's 43 percent we might assume that for some other percentage it was a mixture of factors at the same time we've seen in the last year or two in France a yellow vest protests we've seen people who feel left out of the political process more recently as well and and and protests against police violence and against racism people that do not feel that the current party structure represents them how do we how do we place all of this also in a broader context where we see declining faith in in liberal democratic institutions not just in France but elsewhere so I'd intended to ask this first of Cole but maybe since Cole already gives something something of an answer there we'll turn to Pauline and then see if Cole has any final follow-up on this on this issue and Pauline we're also going to check with our our interpreters again if we continue to have problems I would ask our two interpreters to switch if the problems continue so go ahead and and tell us what you think and I'll pause you if we need to switch our two interpreters no Cole has very well described what is happening it's true that in the 80s there were about 80 percent participation in the municipal elections so we really see that it is a fall at the same time and that the slope is strong so what Dimelanchon I think there is a little bit of a bit of a bit of a bit of a bit of a bit of a bit of what Dimelanchon since la France insoumise a enjambé en quelque sorte ses élections municipale et qu'il voit que en fait les les écologistes bah on un petit peu une longueur d'avance sur ce coula et il y a donc peut-être peut-être une tentation de sous-estimer un petit peu ce scrutin qui ne l'arrange pas politiquement mais pour revenir sur sur sur la tension c'est vrai que c'est assez paradoxal à la fois on comprend et en même temps c'est paradoxal ce qui est paradoxal c'est que par exemple il y avait beaucoup de listes citoyennes cette année plus que d'habitude des listes de citoyens du nom de la gauche bon voilà donc ça ça peut sembler paradoxal avec un forte d'abstention néanmoins le mouvement des gilets jaunes en réalité c'était à la fois une demande de participation politique accrue et c'était en même temps une critique de la démocratie représentative donc en fait on c'est dans une certaine logique entre les gilets jaunes et les municipales voilà il y a un peu un continuum même si c'est vrai que c'est étonnant alors qu'il y avait quand même une offre politique qui était assez large que les gens ne se soient pas déplacés faut dire que donc il y a le le premier tour il y a eu énormément d'abstention aussi mais c'était quand même pas le même climat le premier tour il fin d'or philippe n'est juste de dire qu'en fait on allait se confiner donc il y avait quand même une ambiance un peu inquiétante ce qui selon moi n'a pas eu lieu cette fois si donc peut-être que les gens le les trois mois d'intervalle entre les deux tours n'ont pas aidé non plus à une mobilisation forte et par ailleurs les candidats ont peut-être fait ils ont fait quand même souvent campagne ils ont fait des réunions publics etc avec des masques ou sans masques mais peut-être que c'était un petit peu il y a eu un petit peu moins de mobilisation de leur part okay yeah thanks for that cold do you want to follow up quickly do you agree with pauline yeah just just just to to bounce off one one important thing i think that that pauline mentioned among others i assume we'll we'll talk a little bit later about the maybe analyze the supposed green wave but when we talk about the yellow vests i think one of the other i mean one of the one of the key issues at least highlighted by the yellow vests movement among others i don't want to reduce it to just this one phenomenon but i think it was it was clearly part of the movement was a sort of divide between the metropolitan areas in France big cities and then rural or peripheral areas in France this concept of the perry urbain which is sort of the kind of outer bounds of the suburbs feeling like their interests aren't being taken into account and i think we see this divide also manifests itself in these municipal elections again i don't think this is the most important divide in France i don't think it's necessarily the most important salient issue of the yellow vests but i think it the movement highlighted this among other things um i think we see this sort of cleavage this metropolitan um rural or perry urban cleavage um in these election results so when we talk about that the good results that the that the that the greens had um along with other parties of the left namely the the socialists um we're talking about some of the biggest cities uh in France um and it matters a lot and we can talk about why um but if you go if you look at the list of of all cities in France above 30 000 inhabitants um you know the greens did not do particularly well they won um according to to Le Mans 10 cities out of 236 cities with over 30 000 inhabitants so some important cities in France large cities in France um so uh in those in those smaller cities we often saw the right wing do do better um and again in a in a climate marked by uh a low turnout overall so i assume we'll get to the greens i just wanted to highlight um that that one aspect yeah let's let's go right to the the greens right now and and actually let's go let's go to the broader left um as we might call it um progressive coalitions often led by greens as we've mentioned one in in marseille the first time in 20 some years um in leon and we i already mentioned Strasbourg Bordeaux uh meanwhile the center left socialists held together the coalitions and retained control over paris uh notably as well as the new annon the john uh the list goes on um as i mentioned in my introduction and the top line headlines uh that we have seen internationally have been green waves um in france was what's this a green wave was it a red green wave a red green pink wave um what um in all of these results do you find the most meaningful um the most interesting or the most relevant to uh the national political situation in france right now and for that we'll turn back to to pauline uh well first the question is is it a wave uh since uh we've seen the numbers of the abstention uh there are still quite a few voters in fact so i think it's relativized after is it a green wave uh yes and no uh indeed the green ones win have passed from a city of more than 100,000 inhabitants who were noble in 1914 to seven so uh there's a kind of focus on these big cities uh that gives the impression uh that there is a slow defilement but it's true uh on the one hand in fact uh the implementation of the green at the same time it's not quite new because already uh in the city of 2001 the green had joined the local executives uh but they were at the time uh the subsidies uh of the ps so in fact there it's especially that they are more visible because in a lot of the most of the cities they won it was them who were at the head of the union on the left uh and so behind them indeed it's a kind of plural left but indeed there may be a green wave in any case in the big cities but it is undoubtedly not distributed in a totally homogeneous manner on the rest of the territory and we see for example in Parisian suburbs which are territories uh uh with a lot uh well a lot of poverty uh often uh there is no absolute loss of green except for his coming abroad in 1991 and in columbia uh but uh in fact we stay on a cleavage either on the left or Communist Party PS and uh indeed uh in fact the socialist party is a bit a dig at the green wave since uh we see that uh he maintained his positions uh with a few baronis who resist like Alile with Martin Aubry but who really resists justice uh or Dijon with François Rebsamen and the PS also wins Nancy on the right and he had never had a left in Nancy so it's still interesting and he wins Saint Denis uh on the Communist Party to give examples on the other hand maybe uh there's a little electoral wave but on the other hand what is in my opinion uh very brilliant uh is that there is an ecologization uh of the left uh and we saw a lot of communists for example starting in the first round with uh ecologists which is still a novelty for example to Saint Denis uh or Arran uh I think uh and by the way we saw that uh the PS when he won it was on an ecologist line to the point that for example anidalgo in Paris all his campaign material was green we saw the LV logo which was bigger than the PS logo and wait and uh and Arrena, yes or Anante, in fact they are PS mothers but who are of a new generation uh much more ecologists so in a certain way uh the uh the green ones didn't win that much but what they won is very visible and very spectacular and especially uh their software to infuse in fact uh on the left and so they brought back a little a cultural battle on the left because all the cities that were won on the left were on ecologists lines and even Martin Aubry uh who found himself very difficult in front of ecologist Stéphane Balli at the island the evening of his victory but which was a victory still to the dawn of defeats his first word was to say I'm going to do ecology I heard you that's it so I think that the green wave is going to relativize but at the same time there is something deep that is changing uh on the left Cole what would you like to add to that and I would um add also to the question uh something coming from our audience about where France unbowed or France and Sumi stands and all of this yeah um I'll try to address that as well um I think it's a polling pointed to a very a very good point uh which kind of gets lost in the discussion about the the green's performance which is that they did very well um um in large part with alliances that they had with with the socialist party um and she she listed off some of those cities in France um Rennes uh for example um they did there were some a few situations where the greens opposed the socialist but the greens were also um in in large part allied uh with the socialists and that's a big part of their their victory um and so I know we've sort of been uh relativizing uh the green success and the success of the left but I do think it is worth stressing um you know that there were some significant victories here uh for the left uh if you we mentioned Leon we've mentioned Bordeaux uh Ethan mentioned Bordeaux which is a city that has been governed by the right uh it was sort of the bastion for Anand Junpei who was a very who was a former prime minister uh one time presidential candidate who was widely expected to be the successor to François Hollande in 2017 so a really right-leaning city uh uh and the right ended up losing control of that city and not only did that happen but you also had a list of uh a rare a rare alliance between the François Insoumise, François Ambaoud, Jean-Luc Mélenchon's party and uh the NPA uh the Nouveau Parti Anti-Capitaliste having an alliance and getting elected to city council there I wanted to talk about um um Marseille maybe we'll talk we'll talk about François Insoumise in that context um again there were some victories here another big victory was was Marseille this is the country's second biggest city uh it had been governed somewhat like Bordeaux but it had been a right-wing bastion for a while although in this case it was 25 years not 70 years but 25 years still a considerable length of time uh led by Mayor Goudin who is just turned 80 years old Jean-Claude Goudin who was sort of at the top of this right-wing power structure in Marseille and in the in the surrounding area in the south uh and uh this was a city that flipped to the left um because of a lot of work that was done uh on the ground by by citizen activists um and also by a lot of tough choices made by parties on the left that tend to be divided um in which they said you know the only way we have a chance of of winning this city is if we is if we join forces and that's an alliance that um uh spend all the way from the Socialist Party which was small by itself um through the Communist Party uh through a large part a large portion of François Soumy's activists um to Ensemble which is another small party uh that that was used to be part of the of the left front um the Front Bush in any case a really broad coalition um basically rallying under the the idea that the states were too high to let this right-wing power structure continue to rule the city which has uh high levels of unemployment uh compared to the national average high levels uh a high level of poverty especially in certain neighborhoods um and in inequalities uh and so you have this alliance that was able to to ultimately um was really underdog alliance at the beginning um and ultimately was able to be brokered by uh having an ex-green party candidate be the head of this at the head of this coalition I think that Marseille case is interesting we don't want to extrapolate too much but it shows the potential here for you know what can happen when the left is in left-wing parties are facing a very unfavorable situation overall um in which the path to victory appears slim um uh nevertheless uh you know what can happen if you decide to work together um and you know there's there's still uncertainty around that situation in Marseille despite winning 38 percent of the vote uh compared to 30 percent for the right having having an overall um the highest score uh the election is determined by sectors of the city of Marseille geographical sectors somewhat like the you might say the American uh electoral college or something like that um so it means that uh they don't yet have a majority in the city council and we'll see on saturday when the city council elects uh elects their mayor what happens there but I think nevertheless the score that that that the print on marseille that left coalition in marseille did is I think really impressive and I think that's something to to look at uh for uh for the the rest of the left and I don't want I don't want to talk too much here but just to address that one question about la france insoumise uh or someone someone asked about la france insoumise um and maybe poline has has covered this has followed this more more than I have uh but I'll just say at least one one word on it um which is that there is a sense among the leadership of la france insoumise that they didn't want to be um running their their uh getting into the old political game um so to speak and trying to run in order to control cities and that they saw themselves uh in a relative position of weakness and therefore decided to be part of these broader coalitions rather than uh go it uh alone which is a way of simplifying things maybe poline can can add more um on that on that topic in marseille activists were part of that coalition um but but yes france insoumise overall um um sort of erased uh or or or or you know or erased by this by this uh but what happened in the elections well we're going to come back to uh france insoumise I'm gonna sort of pause pause us there on that poline you'll have a chance to speak to that uh in a few minutes um as a good left foundation uh we will close this uh meeting talking a little bit about the future of the left in france um but before we do that I want to um turn elsewhere um starting with the far right um and then transitioning to talk a little bit more about macro and a bit more about what poline already began to discuss with us um so I would propose uh that we we spend a few minutes on the far right um hear a few more words from from coal and then turn back to to poline for anything that that coal might have missed on the far right um and also to to talk to us a bit more about macro and and his political party and the republican march uh so starting with uh the far right um it was the campaign strategy of marina pens rassemblement national uh more commonly known as the formerly known as the front national or the national front uh to strengthen its hold in a few city cities opting for depth over breadth so to speak uh we see that they did manage to win the southern city of perpignol which is the first city that the far right has won with more than 100 000 inhabitants it's an important uh local city in the southwest part of france uh coal has written uh extensively in the nation and elsewhere about the dangers of the perpignolization the perpignolization uh of france in the context of rising inequality and and ongoing discontent uh does the victory in perpignol uh coal qualify their strategy as a success and how concerned should we should the broader public be about the position of the far right the position of marina pen coming out of this election and heading towards the 2022 national and legislative election uh just just a a couple of uh quick things uh so perpignol is now the biggest city in france governed by the far right they actually in the in the mid 90s also won another city in the south toulon uh which ended up being a disaster and and uh the the coalition fell apart but they they did they did govern a city back in the in the 90s uh that was that was even larger than perpignol but this one obviously uh important because the the party is rising um uh i also i also have to say as much as i would like to to claim credit for the for the term uh the idea of uh perpignolization uh comes from dominique sistaq who is a sociologist sociologist of law who i spoke with in perpignol who knows the city very well is from the area um when sort of we were asking we were talking about you know how much does this really matter for for the rest of france because when you go to perpignol it's a very particular city uh it's um uh well before before i get to that i think you know talking with talking with dominique sistaq talking with with other people and from what what i've observed um you know the the national rally uh one of the preconditions for the national rally really to to succeed to get support um is the economy uh is is is is struggling a difficult economic context uh you know there's there's many many graphs that have that have shown this you might have even seen them the people that are on this call of really support for the national rally tracking with with unemployment um and that's something that you see across the board um so in general rich cities better better off cities do not vote for the national rally or don't have strong support for the national rally it tends to be in poorer places um uh it's not guaranteed but poorer places in very specific contexts um and perpignol is a city that is extremely um extremely poor when compared to the rest of france uh it's a city with high high levels of poverty 32 percent uh poverty rate uh high levels of unemployment 23 percent um uh it's also a city that's that's very uh ethnically diverse uh uh different communities uh you have a large north african population um people of north african descent um you have a large pinoir population so europeans uh who uh came from north africa returned to france um you also have a large gypsy population the legiton community in perpignol which uh claimed to be distinct from from the roma so you have this situation where you have a very difficult economic context you have a very diverse city um and you also have tremendous political disillusionment uh with the the governing mayor so perpignol has had i think three mayors since the 50s i think two of them were father and son the current mayor has just lost uh louis allio of the national rally will be the fourth mayor since since the 1950s um so to the extent that you have uh a situation of a very difficult economic situation high levels of poverty high levels of unemployment um to the extent that you have this diverse population all living in the same city although not necessarily of the same city um or excuse me of the same city but not necessarily living in the same city they're keeping to themselves um um in large part and to the extent that you have political disillusionment um you know these these these are factors that that help explain uh the success of of the national rally and so at the same time as they had this big victory in perpignol but if you look at the rest of the country uh they didn't get any major victories like this um you know so i think that's also where we're we're pointing out you know i think uh what they have to have three cities right now uh with over 30 000 inhabitants um which really isn't isn't that much so you know it's uh it's uh it's it's a danger um and especially if you look at the economic situation right now uh you know it's something to to to worry about and certainly the presidential and and other elections you know speak to their speak to their support but in terms of taking over cities uh you know we'll see what happens in in in in six years from now yeah i just um saw a very early poll a very very early poll ahead of the 2022 presidential elections that has um again uh macro and really neck and neck with uh marina penn which was the case for those of you who did not follow it in the first round of the last presidential election um so turning back to polin um first if you have anything to add uh with regard to the resumblable nacional uh and to coals comments any points of agreement or disagreement and then i would ask you to sort of take us from the the right back into the center of the political discourse um and comment just a little bit more on how meaningful you think these elections were for macron um you wrote a very good article in december of last year already uh four rows of luxembourg schriftung where you argued that uh the greens and macron's party republic on march are fighting over a substantially overlapping electorate to just sunday's green winds and big cities auger a shift in the urban upper middle class electorate uh to what extent is macron's political star damaged and how scared should should he be right now of the far right or if not then of whom so just to come back a little bit on the arena and the extreme right uh i think we still have to say that uh the perp victory is a little bit the tree that hides in the forest because in fact the national assembly even if it is re-elected uh largely in fact all all the mothers of 2014 have been re-elected so it is so famous the city but it is an exception they have been re-elected largely so it proves that there has been an adhesion to their politics for six years uh enabomon aboker frejus uh in the city of well in any case there is that but nevertheless uh in fact the arena uh loses half of its voters uh since 2014 and in fact it did not manage to present a lot of lists they have presented 300 lists uh so which is very little so in fact uh there is a victory of louis alio but uh it's uh it's a little more complicated than that i think that the very high abstention in fact did not favorize the national assembly at all and it's maybe a little sad to say but in fact when there are a lot of participation it takes advantage of the national assembly because it was a vote of anger uh in any case uh that's what i wanted to say i wanted to say something else uh oh yes and in fact that the uh with the louis alio's victory there is a kind of continuum in oxytanie between uh perp and bezier and in fact as much as the arena of the north did not win as much as he hoped as much as the arena uh was replanted in the south necessarily strongly and we are on a line in fact uh which is not the line the same line as the north but on the line of the union of the right and the extreme right and at the same time louis alio and the mayor of bezier are on this line so it may be uh announced maybe what will happen uh for the next one then to come back to your question itan on uh on the question of macron uh and green who are arguing uh in part the same electorate uh so in fact uh we have seen in fact that there is undoubtedly a part of the electorate of macron in 2017 who reported himself on the green who returned to the p.s. so it's a bit normal because macron uh uh he made himself read on the and at the same time and when he arrived at the power he made a very right-wing policy so it's a bit normal that there are disappointments uh uh of macronism and in fact uh yannick jadeau so which is the figure uh an important figure uh at the media level of the green their deputies uh from a long time uh especially try not to uh uh uh in any case to not refute in fact the macronist electors who would be tempted uh to go to the green and he has a whole speech uh around for example the fact that he is not in the opposition or in any case he left a little doubt on uh uh the fact that he could join the government uh so in fact they are in a in a position a little uh welcome uh and in fact we we have seen in paris for example that that worked uh in paris and arenas i'm going to take a little example so in paris or in fact uh that's what i was saying at the beginning of uh of the seminar uh in fact uh anise busin has not even been read and in fact it's annie dalgo who made the meeting on both left and who suddenly revitalized uh uh annie busin who also had some personal problems since the covid uh without talking about the grimoire you have to say that annie dalgo still had a little chance with his his his opponents and uh it re-polarized the debate actually between rashi dadati uh who was on the right side caricatural pro car anti-bike uh a line on the left side and in fact annie busin did not manage to position himself and we can see that at the local level the macronist at the same time uh well it's complicated to understand what it means uh what we also see arenas is that arenas in 2017 and in britain there was a lot of socialist departure towards the republic in march uh and in fact uh no doubt that uh these people uh so the elected people stayed at the republic in march but for example uh the orian who the city of the orian uh where uh the candidate alarem was supported by johyve leudriant uh apart from the south so uh so it's a failure in britain and natalia pérée in fact uh to recover so the renaissance mother i don't know if i'll show you well uh to recover uh necessarily a part of the electora in march and carol gordon who was uh who is by the way the wife of a deputy who was very very very how to say very in the in the game at the level of the dream made a very bad score so in fact we can we can see that uh a little bit the paris of yannick jadot to recover a part of the center without a doubt that it happened and it also it was carried out uh on the eps and for example in sydeny uh matthew anottin so the socialist candidate uh in march had made a relatively good score uh to european and we see that uh the candidate alarem was shaken and it's anotin who recovered the center and by the way a part of the right right thanks um i think that uh we've been going for about 45 minutes now and it would be great to turn uh turn things over to our audience to ask a couple of questions i know that nef diem has been uh also looking on facebook live and and i see that we have a few questions in the q and a box so nef diem uh why don't you take the floor and ask a uh a couple of questions from our public to to our speakers is that and so um uh uh uh uh uh uh uh uh uh i'm gonna turn now to to call um and um and continue a bit around this question of the the alliance on between the the greens and the pink red uh groups do you think that this is something that could be envisioned for other elections and i'm and i'm especially thinking about the the presidential election do you think that the somehow success of the left in in a way could push um could push certain certain groups of of uh following these roads uh this is this is this has come up twice of three times in the question so it's it's important to to somehow but maybe also this is also for for a bit for the end so just just very briefly just very briefly say word about that i think it's good to go ahead and answer it now here we are i would say to to to have have at it col yeah you know i mean there there's certainly uh people within within the greens uh and the socialists who are thinking that this is the alliance that is going to be able to give them a chance to to compete in the 2022 presidential race i was talking with olivia fall who's the the general who's the first secretary of the of the socialist party just before the election on sunday uh and the results ended up going the way that uh in many ways they thought um you know and and his olivia falls line uh is is essentially that uh you know these elections are illustrating that there's this what they call a social ecological block um which is sort of a third force that could uh potentially rival the force of of malhen le pen and the far right uh and then also immanuel mcclellan has sort of uh i don't know what you call it a pro-business uh centrism essentially macronism um so this is the way that the the socialist party or at least parts of the socialist party and especially olivia fall are thinking um is at the elections um if you look at the score that the the greens and socialists had again this is their perspective uh if you look at the score that they had um you know this shows that there's a mandate for something else to offer up other than uh other than le pen and mcclellan um you know and we saw uh julien bayou who's a prominent figure in the greens the national secretary for the party comparing these elections to the 1977 municipal elections which helped pave the way for france amitellant to get elected in 1981 uh you know i think that the setting is is very very different from from uh from the 1970s but in any case what matters is that there are people who are starting to sort of take up this uh this discourse of of left unity uh you know we saw even before the elections in may uh there was a petition that was put out calling for a common initiative uh on the left that was signed by a number of prominent um prominent left-wing politicians that include uh yannick jadow of the green party uh other other greens i think piola the mayor of cologne who we talked about um it included uh important communists included the head of the socialist party olivia falc um so there is some momentum here to to create this sort of force uh a potential third force um you know we're so far out from 2022 that it's you know i don't want to give into too much idle speculation because it's so so early but i think one of the questions um it's safe to say that's going to be looming over this the sort of um recomposition on the left is is where if if there is going to be a third force if people can set aside the differences and come up with with some common plan where is where is the center of gravity going to lie in that in that third force is it going to be something that's that's reflective of basically uh an accord between the leadership of the greens and socialists in which it's you know we'll give you some seats for the legislative elections um you can run your candid to the presidential elections we're you know we're we're on board together um is it going to be a kind of classic uh a political uh marriage like that or is it going to be something that's that's potentially different which i think is is more unlikely but you know when i talk to critics of of this uh of this discourse we're hearing from the greens and socialists about you know and it's not everyone in the parties i should say but it is it is a significant enough of a part to be to be mentioned um one of the criticisms i hear of this of this discourse is that you know this is still sort of the old way of of thinking politically and if you look at the level of turnout in elections if you look at the image of the socialist party you know that this sort of alliance isn't going to work you need to have something else that takes in to account concerns from people that don't go out and vote that takes into some of the concerns that were expressed in the yellow vest movement um you know i'm not a politician i don't know how you how you put that together but i think that that's an important discussion and i think it's going to be continuing over the next two years um you know if there's going to be left unity who's going to be at the heart of it um who who's going to have the the power uh in in that you know recomposition and there's millions of you know thousands of different iterations uh it could take but i think that's going to be hanging over the next next two years international international european and that we are a foundation in the world we talked about phenomena uh especially the rise of ecologists uh the extreme right present that may have a social tendency to ally sometimes with uh where there are wills with with the classic right of some alliance uh and we find that these same phenomena uh some of these phenomena in germany too uh at what point do you think that this this election and these results are clean at the at the at the situation at the french conjoncture or are we not also seeing france is it not also uh in order to be uh an example of a wave a little more uh a little more european too so of this of this of this place also on the left that would be that would be restrained between the ecologists on one side and the extreme right that goes on the other side and that threatens to to to make alliances um it will be interesting to hear you quickly very quickly both on this on this question well uh i i'm going to answer quickly because i i don't know much but after what i understood it's uh what's interesting is that i think it's actually the price of ecologist consciousness it is it is it is mondial and with the covid without doubt that it touched everyone uh maybe it will rise even more uh but after we come back to the subject of the ecologists and what is in fact the line of the ecologists uh which is maybe not the same in france maybe they are more on the left in this way but maybe i'm wrong uh than the german grunnen and uh by the way what is interesting is that actually uh maybe what we are going to do in any case is what the ecologists hope is to do in france in any case is to do a a a match uh in any case to to sign up in the duel with the extreme right and to say in fact we are the uh the uh the rampart in fact uh at the extreme right to the destructor because he he sees this at a global level with bolsonaro uh with trump uh here are those who are anti-ecologists who are revisionists on the question of climate uh and so it's possible uh that uh there is a new cleavage in any case that's what it is to impose on the ecologists not between the right and left but between ecologists and extreme right or between destructors and uh and people defending the nature cool maybe a word as well yeah it's i'm not sure how much i can i can answer that i think it's an interesting point that that polly makes i mean you know speaking uh about the left uh i know the the the socialists how i've always spent time with probably too much time with recently um you know when they look at the european context uh you know i certainly i think they certainly would like to have a sort of see themselves in and this the spanish scenario where you have a situation of this turbulence on the left you have the this emerging the seeming emergence of a new hegemonic force um the podemos in spain in france uh villa france insoumise um but in the end uh you know look look what happens when uh the the socialists can kind of get their their act together um and apologize for the mistakes of the past um and show that they can govern and you know i think that's the way that the the french socialists certainly that that's one example that we can look to um is the success of the spanner socialists party thank you very much for for answering those all those questions and sorry if they were not all uh posed that answered but i will now turn to to even to to to conclude yeah i i think um we've had a lot of of really good content uh here in this last hour plus and certainly in this new age of of of zoom and webinar and online seminar fatigue i i think it's get better to end earlier and leave people with with more inquiries and more questions than to go on for too too long until everybody is exhausted and they're can barely sit at their computer any longer um so i will really just close things down here with one uh final question uh to each of Pauline and Cole um and as i said earlier in the today's webinar it uh has to do with the situation on the broader left um you know what are the possibilities for this renewed left unity in France melon shown in his comment on sunday did not seem overly enthusiastic and he has certainly been the kingmaker and the deal breaker of recent left unity projects at the national level and France they have run through melon shown um and i would i would be interested also particularly since we have a generally progressive audience to hear um where he and his movement uh from some to me stand in the days after the election what is the likelihood that he will see increased cooperation between them and other segments of the broader left and the lead up to 2022 um and if there's any use at this point in time in differentiating between the presidential elections in 2022 and the legislative elections that come right after um so why don't we uh start with uh Cole and then we can end with with with Pauline and and also if you have any other for both of you if you have final thoughts as well uh that haven't been covered or that have just occurred to you that you would like to sort of fit into your last answer please feel free to do so Cole i mean i think i think uh poteen has mentioned it i think we've discussed it i think uh you know whether it's whether it's merited uh or not if you look at the levels and turn out if you can look at a whole other host of factors whether it's deserved or not i think the the sort of kingmaker right now so to speak uh on on the left is is the greens and the green party um and it really isn't melanchon uh at this moment who if you look at uh you know overall his his his approval ratings are not very high um you know if you looked at even the strategy that other uh uh candidates took in order to to try to fight left coalitions and in in local elections they were saying that you know this was this is in my say for example it was you know melanchon his friends are going to take over the city um and to lose ultimately was successful for the right you know they were also sort of waving the banner of of la france insoumise coming to to take over the the town um you know and the right does that but it that it also is reflected the fact that that that melanchon is seen as uh uh you know a a controversial figure and not necessarily always in in a good way um and i think that um you know regardless of that uh and maybe polin can can tell me if i'm wrong uh here uh signs seem to be pointing to the fact that you know uh melanchon wants to run again uh in 2022 um and it'll be very interesting to say because i i i generally don't know i don't think anyone knows what's going to happen we didn't know you know what happened in 2017 was so different from what had been projected i don't think we can say with any certainty what's going to happen in 2022 um but uh uh you know i sort of lost my strength i think i think you know melanchon uh it'll be yes it'll be interesting to see what happens with um melanchon seemingly leaning towards running and then also this sort of uh alliances that seem to be at least being floated between the greens and socialists um is there going to be some sort of convergence are parts of france ensoumise more interested in in cultivating those national ties um there are elements of the party that are kemonte notan um you know launched an initiative with the communist party uh parliamentarian last year they had to held an event together calling for left unity so there are parts of the france ensoumise you know and i don't think we know what's going to happen i'll leave it on that because i don't want to i don't want to project things but there's a lot of uncertainty and yet at the same time i think uh you know a big space that that isn't filled right now and in french politics heading into the 2022 race great poline for l'instant en tout cas il y a deux blocs qui sont formés un bloc conduit par genoux melanchon mais qui qui a beaucoup déco dans les quartiers populaires qui essaient d'incarnation forte et est populaire auprès d'un d'un certain electoral mais il va y avoir en fait ça risque d'être un peu la reddit de 2017 avec deux candidats à gauche avec melanchon d'un côté et un candidat qui pourrait être yannick jadot ou eric piole le maire de grenoble qui serait plus sur une alliance sociale démocrate écologisée voilà alors on voit bien que melanchon il est un peu embêté parce que il a quand même perdu beaucoup de son aura depuis les perquisitions c'était il y a deux ans donc en fait est-ce qu'il est toujours capable d'arriver à 20% à 19% comme ça a été le cas en 2017 c'est vraiment pas sûr et par ailleurs c'est possible que s'il y a une union et une candidature plus collective qui joue le collectif face à lui qui serait plus dans une incarnation personnelle ça puisse bah en fait on sait pas comment ça va se passer est-ce que ça va se régler au sondage est-ce qu'il pourrait y avoir une primaire je ne pense pas donc je ne sais pas comment il peut se se débrouiller je sais pas s'il le ça veut même en tout cas ce qui est assez drôle c'est que melanchon on voit fait un peu la danse du ventre au parti communiste il a publié récemment un blog en disant que voilà les guerres anciennes c'était oublié sachant que les les les les confrontations étaient très dures entre entre Jean-Luc Mélenchon lpc mais on a vu aussi au municipal qu'il y a eu des alliances sur une partie de la sainte-Saint-Denis sur la circonscription du député Alexis Corbière dès le premier tour entre le pcf et la france insoumise donc peut-être pour recoller les morceaux et c'est de refaire une force euh moins enfin moins solitaire qu'attendu et c'est de de récupérer le pc après faut dire que tout ce qui est accord d'appareil les insoumis en tout cas la base insoumise déteste ça et a été élevée politiquement dans la haine de la soupe au logo etc donc c'est compliqué pour Jean-Luc Mélenchon de devenir enfin devenir à la tête d'un rassemblement pour cette raison-là et par ailleurs je pense que les verts et le ps ne veulent surtout pas de Jean-Luc Mélenchon donc en fait je pense qu'ils vont essayer de de prendre non pas Mélenchon qui en fait ne pourrait venir qu'au-dessus d'eux mais peut-être essayer de de tirer d'aller chercher son electoral et il est voilà c'est pour ça que par exemple le le rôle de François Ruffin pourrait être assez important dans le sens où en fait il n'arrête pas d'appeler à une alliance entre les rouges et les verts est-ce que ça irait jusqu'à lâcher Mélenchon pour aller par exemple sur une candidature de Piole moi je pense que du coup il peut être un peu il peut créer comme une dynamique même si il n'est pas candidat mais c'est possible qu'il y ait quand même deux candidats en 2022 qui ne seront pas sur la même ligne comme disait Cole tout à l'heure c'est vrai que c'est la gauche radicale une gauche plus anti-liberal et une gauche peut-être plus sociétal mais enfin je pense c'est plus compliqué que ce que je dis mais il y aura peut-être deux gauche et deux incarnations de style avec au fond peut-être des programmes qui seront pas si différents que ça ok thanks very much so we're ending things on a a certain note of uncertainty which is only fair but it's still a very fluid and unstable situation in french politics it really has been since since 2017 at the very least and as always clarity will come through struggle and I would add that we will see struggle in this next period also between the two wings of the the greens between the greens and their new coalition partners with their various shades of red and also between these ostensibly now left governed cities and the neoliberal right duality that still controls the discourse at the at the national level but what is already clear at least from my perspective is that there now exists a political space to wage that struggle in France which is something that has eluded the broader electoral left since 2017 and from my perspective again represents a chance that shouldn't be squandered so on that note you'll note that in the chat I have shared with all of you our dossier season in hell there are articles from coal from Pauline from many other young writers from France and beyond on french politics for those who want to find out more I would recommend you to go there I would also really highly recommend all of you to check out Pauline's work and Cole's work there are two of the best journalists around Pauline mostly in Mediapart nowadays Cole publishing in various places and on that note thanks to all of you in the public for being here thanks also to our interpreters and to Alexandra for all of the help with comms and outreach thanks also to our media partners jacobin and ricochet and also nice to each land and of course to rose a lot from Berkshiftung for how to sing else on that night note good afternoon good evening good morning wherever you are in the world take care and we'll see you all next time bye bye