 Hi, my name is Leon Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand forest and gold fundamental and technical analysis If you're new a warm welcome to you and if you're returning an equally warm welcome to you And please don't forget to like subscribe and share with your fellow colleagues this video If you find the information I provide every week Useful as it's a free way to support the channel and get to the quality content Out there on the YouTube algorithm. So starting off on the week ahead and There's a raft of upcoming data in the US Including consumer confidence and personal consumption expenditures And it should show how the US economy is responding to the feds aggressive tightening aggressive tightening meaning that they are on the Interest rate hiking cycle. So and they're doing it quite aggressively to try to fight inflation Also, the stock market is set to record its worst first half of the year In a decade in the Europe Attention will be given to the ECB's forum on central banking with speeches from Fed Chair Jerome power ECB president Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Also key reports on inflation and unemployment will be released for the eurozone including Germany, Italy and France and There's some details below. You can go to trading economics. I definitely highly advise you do that Anyways getting into some of the technicals and more in-depth fundamental analysis starting off on a dollar index and the dollar index is just a measure of dollar strength against the currencies like the euro the pound and the yen and With the fundamentals on the Of the dollar we have power Jerome power Fed chair Jerome power says soft landing very challenging and the recession is possible to chair says chances of recession are not particularly elevated and Policy makers must be nimble if conditions surprise. He says so I'll read this and then I'll explain so federal chair Federal reserve chair Jerome power gave his most explicit acknowledgement to date that steep interest rate hikes could tip the US Economy into a recession saying one is possible and calling a soft landing very challenging the other risk though is that we would not manage to restore price stability and That we would allow this high inflation to get entrenched in the economy power told lawmakers on Wednesday We can't fail on that task. We have to get back to 2% inflation, which is basically their mandate so they've got a challenge between hiking interest rates and Interest rates while it does appreciate a currency it has it can have the effect of slowing down the economy reducing demand but That I think they're their first thought really is to kind of fight inflation to get inflation to come down So they have no choice, but to continue to hike rates until in place I guess rising inflation so start show signs of abating right so They have to hike continue to hike aggressively. It's gonna potentially Cause a recession or a contraction in the economy sooner So they don't really like to hike rates, but they're gonna have to to try and find places So there is a soft landing Is is very challenging a soft landing meaning that they just want to balance inflation and the economy So they don't want to tip too far either way anyways So with the but the you know regardless of what was happening in the short term a recession is definitely Probably next year so analysts do say some bank analysts Maybe second quarter of of 2023 if it is a tool possible They may not even enter into a recession or they might contract members to negative quarters Oh, you know consider the recession so they may contract going to negative, but maybe they might find their way out So but for me for now the dollar is still one of the better currencies And my bias is still to buy so Again, the financial advice, but if I'm looking to buy them looking for more dollar upside now We'll let the rock side continue this week. Who knows but if prices do come down to Any, you know demand zone on the dollar index? I'll look for that confluence on some other dollar crosses If you are looking to sell the dollar Then you would look for price to come up into that supply zone and then go on to something like the dollar yen Potentially to try and short the dollar there. So The dollar index is just used as I guess some some Confluence with or any kind of dollar Forex pair crosses looking at the dollar yen and the dollar yen Again, we've made higher highs higher lows And this is really due to monetary policy divergence to the Bank of Japan I'm pretty one of the last central banks. I say probably but the last central bank in the G-10 to really look to hike any rates In fact, they are being very dovish meaning that Prices are probably likely to go to the upside. They have Threatened I will say threatened I will say jaw-boning right jaw-boning or moral suasion Which is try to influence the market that they may intervene to stop the yen appreciating too rapidly Which is the problem really they don't mind the yen Devaluing but when it devalues in the way that it has in such a short space of time Thousands of pips since the beginning of the year say thousands but over a thousand pips since the beginning of the year It is a problem for their economy. So Although devaluation is is okay To a certain degree. It's it's the the amount of devaluation that happens over a certain time span. So There is talk of obviously the 140s being an absolute ceiling before the Bank of Japan do start to enact intervention to try to stop it from Weakening too much. So you might see prices continue to go higher before the central bank then starts to say well, we're gonna have to implement monetary policies to try and bring the To stem I guess the the weakness of the yen, but until that happens I am a buyer of the of the end. I'm sorry of the dollar of the US dollar Pull backs into the 1 3 2 1 3 1s is definitely desirable for me and then that would be a really nice up and I think potential buy moving on to the dollar cad And the dollar sorry dollar Swiss apologies dollar Swiss the Swiss Frank Swiss National Bank hiking rates surprising a surprise hiking rates plus a larger Rate hike of 50 basis points or 0.5 percent the market is now revaluing the The Swiss Frank against obviously Every other currency for me the Swiss Frank is a buyer, but just not against the dollar But if you are interested in buying the the dollar against the Swiss Frank then decent This is a decent that was come down to maybe a bit more than 95 round number before getting looking at getting long If you've missed that entry already if you are looking to buy the Swiss Frank then any pullbacks into our What would say the higher end this supply zone would be a nice Technical trade, but not really a pair that I'm interested in as they're to compete in currencies Moving on to the dollar cad dollar cad and The dollar cad was reading of a poor of several reports matter of fact from some banks in the trading 180 group and Several banks were saying that in fact they think that the dollar cad could start to move higher Reason being is because although both central banks are on a hiking cycle due to global growth concerns The the dollar typically does well and and commodity currencies don't do well So we could see prices start to move a lot higher And I say a lot higher, but at least up to retest these these hires So decent pullback intraday So if you obviously when prices come down into this so What you want to do what you can do if you're if you're around during a day is obviously look to the lower time frames You know, whether it's the four hour to two hour the one hour And look for cement trees down at these within these daily demand zones so But again, not really a pair that I'm interested in more and more concerned of looking at strong currencies versus weak currencies or Bit more of a divergence between or convergence between the dollar and the cad But if you are looking at buying the US dollar, then this is a decent level to look for any kind of buy trades If you're looking at sell trades then looking at the zone above Moving on to the New Zealand dollar US dollar and the New Zealand dollar US dollar similar to the dollar cad where you have commodity currencies don't typically do well in the risk-off environment. So you would expect any pullbacks really To be shorted and buying the US dollar Prices could obviously come up to these to this zone here and then it would probably be another sell there if there is Risk on does come back into play in the global Growth fears inflation starts to come down The war in Ukraine, you know starts to subside all days. There's a conflict agreement Then this I think this area here any pullbacks is going to be a very nice buy but until that really happens For me the path for these resistances to the downside for the US dollar moving on to the pound dollar that this is a currency pair that I am interested in and Reason being is because I do think that the pound is In the UK economy isn't doing great. So UK consumers are buckling under the cost of living crisis People are spending less at British supermarkets. OMS says consumer Confidence is at a record low and mid inflation squeeze So UK consumers are starting to crumple in the face of soaring prices according to a series of reports that paints a grim picture On the nace of the nation's cost of living crisis the office of national statistics says Friday The volume of goods sold in stores and online fell 0.5% in May as soaring food prices Forced consumers to cut back on spending and supermarkets more than nine in ten adults Say their cost of living has gone up in the past month with price of food the most cited factor separate reports showed so Cost of living if consumers are not spending it hurts you know the economy businesses the UK is a service-driven economy and so I do think that Unfortunately living in the UK, you know, we're seeing I'm definitely, you know seeing the cost of living crisis rise and From a trading perspective I think the US is better placed to To whether the storm in the UK really is probably more on the edge as far as Stagflation and potential recession. So for me, it's any, you know pullbacks to zones Before getting short. There is actually an intraday zone around these highs that I like the one-two-four round number But that's beyond the scope of this Beyond the scope of this video. So you're looking at either pullbacks if prices You know go to the downside and the pullback into a supply zone or you're looking at a pullback to the one-two-five Two-nines at the earliest if you're looking at daily Supply zones to get long. Of course, you could get so it gets long the US dollar, of course If you're looking to get long on the British pound, there might be a change in fortunes changing fundamentals Then any pullbacks to I think around that one twenty one nineteen fifty is going to be very very nice for a potential buy But let's see what happens moving on to the euro dollar and the euro dollar Again, I think the the dollar is a buy over the euro the euro similar to the UK really German business confidence unexpectedly falls on Russia gas fears So a cost-living crisis not only for the UK, but for Europeans, right? So LFO expectations index declined to eight or eighty five point eight in June and it was estimated to eighty seven point four fewest says likelihood of a recession is clearly increasing so That isn't great for the euro and German business confidence Unexpectedly deteriorated on mounting fears over energy supplies from Russia that are raising the prospect of a recession in Europe's biggest economy a gauge of Expectations by the Munich based LFO Institute Is it L? Is it I? IFO? Institute fell Eighty five point eight percent in June from eighty six point nine in May defying analysts Predictions that two months of gains would continue an index of current conditions edged lower so not great for the euro and again is another report from the Guardian it says that German gas prices could triple as Russia reduces supply Experts says of fears consumers may have to pay up to three times as much after Nord Stream one pipeline flow cut by 40% German consumers could face a tripling of gas prices in the coming months after Russia's throttling of deliveries to Europe a Senior energy official has said so not looking great for Europe at the moment If they do manage to you know sort out that energy their energy crisis as well I think the Europe probably might be a buyer But for now where the data is going I think it's probably more likely that you're going to continue to see more downside Of course, you could see a pullback This week or in the next coming weeks, but it doesn't mean that I'm you know I'm gonna go long just means that this is a better price to short the euro if prices do come up here in their situation Economically is still the same. It's still those fears right because prices is not you know Never confuse price with value prices can go higher doesn't mean that You know, that's that's the actual value. That's the reason why you have bargain prices and expensive prices, right? So Otherwise if price and value were the same thing then you would all you know price would always be fair value Which is not the case so Again, my bias is really to the downside until Anything changes fundamentally or risk sentiment wise Australian dollar US dollar again like the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar. I think Parfait resistance is probably still to the downside in if risk of fears Persistent the Australian dollar is something I'm looking to buy but just not Against the US dollar so any pullbacks into that zone. I think a decent or into the higher zone Technically if that's what you want to do if you are looking to buy the US I'm sorry the Australian dollar then you're looking at a pullback I would say definitely deeper into the zone a fresher area of demand and even down to that 0.683 area before looking at getting long The Aussie yen is something that I am interested in buying You can see my previous analysis so I'm looking at a level around the one sorry the six sorry 92 50s and just below that to the 92s for me to get involved in that trade there if prices can pull back that deep Hopefully they do and if it presents itself in the lower time frame that's where I'm looking to get you know long on that But again, we could see prices can't and then start to Pull back right as far as if risk of sentiment really does start to take over but If it does then that's pretty much the trade and you want to be a buyer of the Japanese yen Or if the Bank of Japan do change their monetary policy, you could also see prices come up into this technical zone, which I do like Technically but I don't like it fundamentally, so I'm not taking this short And then you're looking at a short trade from here with technically that is a very nice zone and Yeah, any short trades there Moving towards and lost currency or currency, but gold gold is a currency, I guess Yeah gold against the dollar so we've got Really gold has been in this this auction And some people would describe it as a range, but ultimately this is a fair value auction Right because buyers and sellers have agreed that the this area here Right so this height this price is the 18 the highest what 1879 is considered an expensive price for the gold and That the 1786 areas considered the bargain right so This is what is known as an auction of fair value auction. So Looking at where we are I do think that any pullbacks in into anywhere around that 1800 just below the 1792s 86 areas. I think that's going to be a very nice buy Opportunity for for gold again if it presents itself because no one can predict the future and prices could just collapse straight through But we've everything that's going on in the world risk sentiment inflation worries Cost of living crisis You've got supply chain problems Global economic slowdown. I do think that the gold is you know continuing to be a buy also as well We did have Switzerland imports Russian gold for the first time since the war so more than three tons of gold was shipped To refining hub in May and Russian gold became taboo Following invasion of the Ukraine's the Switzerland imported gold from Russia for the first time since the Invasion of Ukraine showing the industry stance towards the nation's precious metal may be softening. So the fact that the Swiss national, you know, Swiss Against the government are looking to you know import Russian gold even though it's seen as taboo is It's something obviously going on there right and looking to hold gold so decent I think by an opportunity decent price of prices can get down to these These the low area and let's see what what happens there Anyways guys that bring us to the end of the video. Don't forget to like subscribe And share the video on all social media platforms to support trading 180 freeway to support trading 180 And I hope you have a great trading week. Thank you for all the comments and and kind words and support and take care. I hope you have a blessed and safe trading week