 Hello, this is Tom Pazzutti with Trading in the Mark and today I thought we would get caught up on crude oil like how it's been working out since we last talked, so let's get caught up again. Let's start with the weekly chart first. On the weekly chart, as we spoke last time, I think the overall pattern here from these highs back early in 2022 is that we're setting up a large corrective pattern for a wave 2 and that so far we've had a wave A print, and I'm calling that print to say one degree labels are somewhat subjective. Doesn't matter. Looking for a overall of very large three wave move declined for a two. So far, we've had the move down in A, had a three wave bounce in a B, and we're sort of early into this next pattern, whatever that may look like. Now, for right now, I am making a guess that the end of this pattern here, this C wave will be an ending diagonal. We don't know, it's too early to know for sure if it's going to look like that. In fact, the next, I don't know, a few weeks should clear that up for us. If it's going to be an ending diagonal, an ending diagonal will allow this third wave bounce to be higher than what it would normally would be if we were expecting a sort of a conventional impulse wave here. If we are getting a conventional impulse wave, this bounce is a wave four, and that wave four wouldn't overlap very much, if at all, with this initial move down, and that'll be easier to see on the daily chart when I move on to that. But anyway, right now, my idea is that crude is already kind of sensing the worldwide sort of recession. I do think that the oil producers are trying to get out in front of that. In fact, we'll talk about that a little bit later. And you know, the rest of the markets will get caught up on that fact later, but definitely, I think oil is already starting to anticipate a slowdown. However, I've seen some people talk about under the 30 handle for even lower for crude next year or the year after that. I just think that that's probably going to be very unrealistic. I think that getting down into this 3940 area would be a gift. I doubt that it gets that far, but we'll see. And I think it's much more likely that we would get somewhere in the, say this 53 to 4590 area kind of a test of the prior lower degree fourth. So something back in here, I think, is realistic really anywhere between the mid 40s to the you know, low to mid 50s is a realistic price for a pullback. But you know, I suppose everything could crater and it could go lower, but I again, I I wouldn't look forward to that. We'll see what happens in six months where we are. But anyway, moving on, let's take a look at the daily chart. On a daily chart, you could see that we've had this initial decline, a bounce up and a decline with five waves. That's pretty easy to see, you know, one down kind of essentially a sideways move in two, a drop in three, a quick little bounce in four didn't have any overlap with one and a drop down to a new low. And that this whole move right here I'm again using the primary hypothesis of a ending diagonal and an ending diagonal is a special kind of weight of five wave moves, so to speak, but the five moves inside of it are all going to be made of three. So an A, B, C, a three, and that is one of the ending diagonal. There'll be a three wave bounce in wave two, and then after that would be a three wave move down in three. So you end up with a pattern that's all made out of threes as opposed to being made out of five, three, five, three, five as an example for a conventional impulse. But as I was saying earlier, we don't know for sure if it's going to be an ending diagonal at this point. Again, that's just a hypothesis that I have that kind of lets the one would let this current bounce, bounce up above this initial impulse here, this first low here would be able to go up over 7941 without breaking any kind of rules and then how far up it gets, we don't know yet. In fact, I don't think it has to go very high could stall out in this 79 kind of area to 8130 and on reverse lower. And that would be, I would start counting that initially as the early part of a wave three. Again, we won't know for sure, but that could be construed as being a wave four and then the move down being a wave five. This is somewhat academic at this point. All that will end up telling us as to what future movement will look like later on in the upcoming months in the relatively short term of the moves whether we count this as working on an initial five wave down or as an ending diagonal is not going to make that much difference. So I probably have already spent too much time on it, so we'll move on. On the intraday chart, we could see that this is it was interesting here on Wednesday in that crude started initially stalled out just above the 7760 resistance level and then dropped pretty sharply. We had the EIA numbers on Wednesday morning had a quick drop tested and old resistance at 7565 that old resistance becomes supports and then launch back and recovered by the end of the day that recovered 7760. And here we are in the very early hours of Thursday. It's starting to poke over that. So definitely an interesting day in crude started off week and then had a very sharp recovery. And this is all I think positioning and some a little bit of news starting to leak out about this new OPEC plus meeting that is taking place today. There's people talk about that you're certainly the Saudis would like to see cutbacks pretty much trying to get ahead of any kind of recession and whether or not the whole group will be able to approve that or not. We don't know yet. I'm going to guess that there are going to that they will end up agreeing on some production cutbacks and that will allow WTI here the CL to probably pop above 7760 as it is and either push for 7865 or 7950 here in the very short term. And if at some point you see a reversal today certainly if it were to follow under 767760 but the real important number is 7670 if at some point it drops underneath 7670 then I would say this wave two correction up is over with and that we are starting some type of impulse down. Again whether that is the beginning of wave three as I postulate here or if this is a fourth wave and it's moving down in a wave five and wave one will end up being moved over to the right you know we'll see but from someone playing crude on a short term you know day trading basis really doesn't matter. What matters is that while you're above 7760 probably play for higher and you know how high it all depends on what the news looks like but you know any kind of spikes it could definitely follow through all the way up into the 8035 or even 8120 depending on the news but if you start to see it start to fall apart after testing one of these levels then keep an eye on 7670 afterwards as your principal support and if that breaks then the bullish trade is over with and we're going to start a bearish trade after that. All right that's all I had to say I hope you all have a good rest of the week and I'll see you next time.