 Hi, my name is Leon Roe, currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com. Welcome to this week's supply and demand for us in gold fundamental and technical Analysis, hope you're doing well and had a great week trading. I Just wanted to say that I will be releasing the recorded Web and I had on the 3rd of November talking about forecasting forex trends that last for months But there was a condition to it. I wasn't really going to release until next year at some point but I thought that because that I'd been getting a lot of Emails basically asking me to release it. I thought all right then. Well, you have to do something for it, right? So for the you know for the regular viewers in the new viewers I Will be releasing the forecasting forex trends that last for months Webinar using fundamental analysis that are recorded on the 3rd of November But definitely have to have at least 25 you percent of YouTube likes likes in comparison to the view So at least just a quarter of you one in four people We've got a like this video and also I've got to have a thousand views as well very very small You know a small channel not asking for much right you can share with your other trading colleagues Watch it a few times. I don't know if you're gonna get multiple likes if you've got multiple channels But yeah, I'll start I'll release it when I get at least a thousand views and at least 25 percent of you like the The channel and so once I get that then I'll release it and by the way You know, it's this is this is really breaking down. This is kind of like a cheat code as I call it Really breaking down the fundamentals in the most simple way to predicts and forecast I guess the You know trends that will last for months and and even years many of you know that I've been you know For example short on the euro dollar for no, you know, nearly 80 months and I continue to go short on the euro dollar Over 80 months nearly two years now, right and that's just through fundamental analysis. So Yeah, if you like guys can complete this challenge Then I will release the views and basically show you the things that I've been looking at and doing and give you an Example on the euro dollar, you know the trend this year and the guys in a discord group, you know I've been taking advantage of that as well as the dollar yen as well and talking about the discord group If you guys want to join a mentorship just Last chance this year will open on Monday the 28th of November and closes Friday the second of December And it's the final opening of 2022. I do like to keep my classes on the smaller side of an open often Mentoring takes a lot. By the way, if you do want to join be prepared to work, you know hard This isn't something that you can learn in like, you know a couple of days. There was a lot to it and Yeah, so the next enrollment after this is gonna be in January, you know early February. I haven't decided yet 2023 so Go to trading 180.com on those dates and become a Basically enroll if you want to enroll if you don't I wish you all the best, of course So getting into this week's fundamental analysis in a week ahead on trading economics.com In the US the most important economic releases include retail sales producer prices and housing data So investors will be keeping an iron earnings report, of course and yeah, I was reading up about the FTX exchange far for bankruptcy crazy Although I do buy crypto. I don't definitely though keep my my money on Exchanges as they say not your keys. Not your crypto, right? Elsewhere in the spotlight will be inflation rates from Japan UK and Canada or and budget statement from the UK as well. That's going to be very important It because it really sets the tone for the UK as we'll get into Also, it will be interesting to follow the ZEW economic sentiment for Germany third quarter GDP growth rates from Japan Of course and industrial production retail sales and fixed investment data from China. So There's some more in-depth Reading to be done Let me just zoom in a little bit if you want to do that again go to trading economics.com and if you click on the First page front page if you see week ahead should be the first Box that has been updated 25 hours ago. So have a read more in-depth Anyways getting on to the technicals as well as some more fundamentals of what happened last week and my thoughts and biases For the week ahead We're starting off from the dollar index and the dollar index is just a measure of dollar strength against the major currencies and we had a sharp sell-off right and this is due to inflation inflation was right so say woes, but in fact The Federal Reserve do want inflation to come down right and inflation expectations and what inflation expectations When they were released basically it meant that the The expectation for interest rate hikes has kind of been paired back right and so but The Wall Street managers right are pushing back on easing inflation hopes so the job of a central bank is to try to get inflation back down to you know the 2% target but You know Wall Street managers are basically saying that the We're going to be living with inflation for longer So euphoria is sweeping every corner of Wall Street in the wake of the latest data that suggests inflation is peaking From a four decade high yet big money managers are in no mood to celebrate betting that the world will have to contend with Elevated prices for years to come and in a game changer for investing strategies of all stripes the JP Morgan Asset management is clinging on to a record allocation in cash In at least one of its strategies while hedge fund solutions team at UBS group AG is staying defensive man group Quants expect the great inflation trade to endure with all signs suggesting price pressures will stay strong for a while Yet, so I think you know the price in the dollar. I'm saying to the guys in the private group I'm still long dollars regardless of what's happening in the short term I mean if you actually just look at you know the year to date You know a pullback Does not you know end the trend for example does not end the trend at all I think the price is just pulling back to bargain levels and I will be looking for you know buying opportunities not necessarily on the dollar index but on the You know dollar dollar crosses right especially like for example the euro and the the pound and so To kind of back that up as well You always want big money with you on your trade So the dollar is still king for strategies looking beyond to the route And so the dollar has not stopped its worst week since the early days of the COVID pandemic But analysts think a long-running stampede for the greenback might not be over just yet So Bloomberg dollar spot index lumped about 3.5 percent this week It's biggest loss since March 2020 investors had been trimming bets on the dollar ahead of Thursday's US inflation data With a down with a slow down in prices leading to it getting pummeled in the indexes worst one-day performance since 2009 and what that does is that that psychologically gets you thinking that you know to most people to kind of short the dollar And again, this is not financial advice. It's just you know my thoughts But what I think is that the market is just pricing in really a 50 basis point Hike rather than a 75 basis point hike, of course, you know There's gonna be a pullback that the the scare of the pullback in terms of you know Is it would it be a gradual one or would it be a sharp one? Obviously, it's been a sharp one But it invokes emotion to for people who don't know any better to now start to want to get short But but smart money if you know, we're right about this trade idea still Are actually, you know buying in you know with with the dollar Buying the dollar as it starts to come down regardless of how sharp it starts to come down And I do believe that the dollar is still the dog with the least fleas right in terms of when you look around on you know, for example economic growth and Monetary policy that the the US is still the best regardless of it, you know looking at the Europe and and the pound for example, so You know again just to continue on, you know, basically traders dive back bets on how much policy tightening They expect the Federal Reserve to implement and that's really the reason why right because they were Pricing in a terminal rate of I think was it 5.25% but now they are maybe just scaling back But the market is just pricing that in but once it prices it in then I think the dollar will now be a buy And I still think it's a buy so a lot of traders say don't you know catch a falling knife But if you understand value or potential value, then you can't right you can catch falling eyes all the time So for me I'm our bias is still to the upside will prices, you know bounce from here. No idea. No idea No one knows, you know, I mean exactly where it's going to bounce and it might not right again We've got to look at price action what it does there the reaction, you know and and so on and so forth But there is a demand zone there and there is also a couple of demand zones just underneath that level So for me, I'm looking at you know price at all these levels Come the market open and seeing how price reacts to that what the market sentiment is etc And I'm looking at this is just buying the dollar for a you know bargain price regardless of what happened You know over the sell-off because eventually value will will come to the fore and You know, this is how you know traders get caught going the wrong side, right? There's a lot of traders going long For example lots of stop losses below levels You know big institutional stop losses. This was known as a bit bit of a short squeeze You know the pain trade The traders are now, you know in a bit of pain because they've been going long not trading with any stop losses And now they're in a bit of pain But eventually they'll get out of their trades or just add in and then I think that the dollar for me is still a buy In over them over the medium to long term at least for the rest of this year unless You know data comes out not supporting that narrative But as long as the data supports the narrative of a strong dollar or a decent dollar Then I will be continue to be a buyer of the dollar anyways So that's a dollar index. Let's move on to the Dollar yen so again pullbacks All around Here we go. Yep. So big pullbacks on the dollar not surprising the next Buyers are around here. I think that the yen is is looking at being a buy at some point soon going into 2023 But again, that's data dependent But if you are, you know short on the dollar yen, then you will need You know, you'd have to wait for pretty much a big pullback up to these areas here So just looking for either a move back up to here if you want to be short on the dollar Or if you want to get long on the dollar then The other 136 is looking quite nice and with you know, the yen gdp coming out Japan Japanese gdp coming out if it disappoints then that in fact this could be a decent buy in fact for the for the dollar so So let's see what happens there Dollar swiss dollar swiss again. Look at that massive sell-off I was saying last week or week before that this technical area up here was was actually a really nice buy Up at the top for the swiss frank if you believed, you know as far as a short That you believe that the swiss frank was a buy against the dollar But yeah, you can see if you took that trade that would have been very nice Looking at where we are now. I think here is going to be the You know a decent buy technically But again, I think there's some levels just below that not really interested in trading this pair I think the swiss national bank is still quite hawkish Especially we were in a risk-off environment as well. You don't really want to you know buy two risk-off currencies But uh, but yeah, I think where we are now any pullbacks into these zones here I think a decent for buying opportunities technically But it just really depends on where you think, you know, the value is But again, it's not really the best pair. I want to see, you know, bigger divergences in terms of monetary policy and fundamentals Dollar cad so again every every pair against the dollar really is pulling back So um and again just to give it perspective look at where we were at the beginning of 2022 Yeah, and where we were of course, you had to expect a pullback, right? Look at that almost parabolic in terms So, you know, you know, we're just getting a getting a decent pullback and the markets are going to find value somewhere Again a pullback into some decent demand zones demand there demand there and demand around here And so again, just looking for any kind of uh long trades at those areas If you're looking for short trades and buying the canadian dollar against the us dollar, then you're looking at these areas Right here um Moving on to the new zealand dollar us dollar new zealand dollar You know grinding hire who've come to quite an interesting Area, I think in terms of potential short trade to buy the us dollar if risk remains more often on Then I think this is a decent area to look for any kind of Short trades in fact this whole zone would be a supply And then you've got an area of supply here hidden supply and then you've got an area there But I think commodity currencies like the australian dollar and the new zealand dollar may benefit from a trade idea I discussed in the group regarding China's zero coveted lift restrictions and so if that starts to come to fruition I do think that the new zealand dollar will be a buy But it's slightly too early to get involved. I think in that trade yet or you know that i'm getting involved in that trade Of course traders can you know get into um any trades they want In terms of you know trade idea, but um i'm waiting for more evidence really to to come out But I think if the china trade um coveted restriction idea does come to um fruition then I think any pullback especially into that 59 area we're going to be a very nice zone um if the dollar starts to find you know some um some more Some value as well as maybe potential more risk off sentiment Then I think this area here is going to be decent for a um for a short trade You also have obviously some uh of your support and resistance uh within that Area there and support resistance is drawn as a zone not necessarily just a line, right? So I think that area there is decent. You also have a bit of uh support and resistance right there So within that wide zone you've got these two areas to look for um short trades And uh pound dollar pound dollar And a pound really is just rallying based off of um dollar weakness and um, let's go to what was the uh charting the Uh, no actually wasn't this one. It was uh, this is it So the uk economy contracted by 0.2 percent in the quarter three putting it on the brink of recession pretty much You need two negative quarters of growth To be classified as a technical recession The uk economy shrank by 0.2 percent in the last quarter putting it on the brink of recession the office of national statistics reports That that gdp fell in july september quarter following a 0.2 rise in eight Is sorry in april to june. Uh, that's less Bad than feared but still shows the uk economy is weakening as the cost of living crisis and rising interest rates hit the economy And uh, yeah, so you know, there was there were some reasons for that and you know The queen's funeral added to september's gdp hit um and further weakness is coming according to ing And a winter recession looks highly likely and um and also as well from the guardian blog uk lags behind other g7 countries So the uk fell behind other major advanced economies in the last quarter So the uk is the only member of the g7 whose economy shrank by july september Although japan is yet to report its third quarter data in contrast, germany France kept expanding the part despite the energy crisis while the us returned to growth. So when you look at in in comparison To you know, what the united kingdom and you know, when you're buying a currency one of the Things you want to do is look towards, you know, how the economy is performing and the uk is obviously Not doing so well, right? So why would you buy, you know, the the the the pound? That's just my you know, my thinking So it says we should remember that the uk's economy was pulled bound by the bank holiday for the queen's state funeral Which caused around half of the zero point six percent drop in gdp during september, but still pantheon macros sam tombs says uk is a global outlier the only g7 country to have not seen gdp recover fully to its pre-covid fourth quarter 29 19 peak, right? So there are reasons to to not really For me, anyway, when I buy the the pound and also as well if I go back to I think it was here a tiny the global uk sorry trying to global economy Prospects darken for uk and the euro area. So you've also got as well. You got the um the budget as well. So jeremy hunt um Is releasing uh chancellor is releasing the uh the budget and that's going to have a big effect on You know fiscal policy and how you know, they try to um help the economy fiscally. So um That's pretty going to be a market mover, but I don't think there's anything they can really do to be fair. Um, they got to try something but um, it depends on how the market takes it, but i'm still personally of a shorter of the uh of the uk and and the pound And so for me technically I think right here Supply there was talks about it could run up to the 120s. So if it does run up to the 120s one 2050 Area, I do think actually this area is going to be very nice and a decent bargain long way to go Not too sure whether the forecast is still forecasting um 103s But because of what happened obviously with inflation in the us But I do think that there is a good few 100 good more than a few hundred pips You know five to a thousand pip move to the downside the higher it goes. So um, yeah, let's see what happens here So any short trades around here or here? I think are very nice for Um to buy the dollar against the pound and if you want to buy the pound Against the dollar, then you're really looking at this area here quite a wide zone of demand um Demand, okay. It's not changing. All right. That should be demand What's going on there? Anyways, um That's a demand zone. Um, even though it's in red. So, um But we have my biases to the downside. So I'm looking for any kind of short trades and around these zones I'm coming next week Euro dollar Right and the euro dollar, um, again, my bias is still to the short side Although we've obviously seen this massive massive pullback, right? Um Sharp pullback, but I still think the dollar is a buy over europe Um short term, obviously, it's a bit difficult to to trade in terms of, um, you know understanding the sentiment And it's not to say that you don't understand the sentiment because sentiment is against the dollar at the moment But I do think, um You know, I'm looking for just opportunities to look for any short trades in these areas Of course, this is not financial advice. If you do want to be a buyer of the, um, the the euro Then you're really looking for a pullback into that demand zone there Um, why is it not turning? I wonder why it's not To demand supply demand All right. Okay. It's a bit, um It's a bit frustrating, but yeah, there's, um Let me just turn this green a bit. Turn green. Okay. All right. So it's turning green then anyways It's a demand zone there, right? You have to wait for a pullback, but you end up having to wait for at least a 200 Nearly 300 pit pullback, you know for in order for you to try and get along at that demand zone um Aussie dollar Yeah, Aussie dollar and we've got, um, again similar to, um A lot of the other currencies in terms of buying, uh the dollar You're going to have to I'm not sure what's happening guys with my, uh My supply and demand zones have to do it manually. It looks like, um anyways These are where the supply zones are I don't even think my supply zone is working now. Um I'm having a technical meltdown. Anyways, uh, this is where the supply zone is Let's see if I can draw in here now. I still can't draw in here one second guys Right, I am back. There's something to do with my internet connection. I think I know what was going on. Anyways, um, so Any short trades if you're looking to buy the u.s. Dollar? Um Coming up I think around here in fact that extends up here. Um Again, I think I'd probably be a buyer of the australian dollar if the covids zero, um, Chinese You know the chinese, um Produce the covids zero policy or end it and I think that is going to be a really nice buy for the australian dollar against the um, the u.s. Dollar, but um until really there's a bit more evidence to support that trade idea Um, I think my bias is probably more to the uh to the short side, but I'm not really interested in trading this pair. Um Until until I think the covids zero, um starts to you know, have an impact Aussie yen and Let's see what happens here, but I think we've got Quite a wide demand zone And demand zone has been touched several times. So for me if I was going to be a buyer I would really want to be a buyer down at these. Um Down at these lows right here. So, um any kind of pullback Right into here because it's been touched here been touched here For me, this doesn't this becomes less of a bargain. So I'd really wait for prices to put back into the 90, um The 90s and look for any kind of buy trades if you're looking to short the oz yen, then your first area has to be Uh the supply zone right there There and There is where we are. Um You do have actually a really Quite a nice Obvious area of support as well. So uh for those of you who know about potential stop hunting That's a decent area for a potential stop hunt as well. Um So those are your options and then gold gold is uh taken off this week Um Again, I've been saying this for the past few months, you know the smart money The the central banks have really been buying Gold and buying gold and let's uh Show you one second. It says one of the World's top gold buying central banks is far from satid sated. I guess, um Uzbekistan is growing share of bullion in 32 billion reserves And central banker says Uzbekistan has reversed plans to buy debt in the world's Second biggest buyer of gold among central banks last quarter believes there's hardly such thing As as too much bullion, right? So you might be thinking well Uzbekistan, you know, they're not the biggest country in the world But ultimately, um, if they're buying, you know, gold and they're starting to buy gold Believe me and this is the I guess more the more of the developed nation, right? So developing. Sorry Gold bugs in the developing world, right? Um, so the developed world which is, you know, the the u.k The u.s. Japan Europe if you know, these guys are buying and increasing their their their gold reserves then imagine what the developed Banks are doing and you know, that's um You know, it makes all the sense in the world and so, um Really buying gold is just you know, if you're you know, short dollars I guess a way to kind of short dollars is to really kind of buy gold and you're looking for really any pull backs Especially if it's a gold um dollars does start to kind of just weaken a bit and start to auction Then these areas here are going to be really really nice for a potential, you know, buy on gold If you believe in, you know, continued dollar strength up into, you know, the highs and beyond which I actually don't anymore because of the uh shift really in The terminal rate on the dollar, um Then you can obviously look for short trades here if you believe that the dollar is still going to strengthen Then there is an argument just you know for that to happen, um You know to the short side, but I think for me going into 2023 My bias now is going to be on buying um the obviously now, but it's been on that that way for a for a while But um, it's buying uh more gold on pull backs. I think So uh, so yeah, that's really where we are So hope you enjoyed the uh technical analysis again, don't forget Trading 180 membership opens up on monday the 28th of november for um a few days And it's going to be the last one this year also as well um If you want to you want me to release the forecasting forex trends this year that lasts for months webinar You know one in four people have got to like this video and I've got to have a thousand views So I need to get 250 likes in a thousand views and if you can do that I will release it ASAP It will go on as soon as I see that we've got a 25 percent. So guys have a great week and I will speak to you all soon