 Hi there. I'm Anthony Chung, and I'm the head of market analysis here at Amplify Trading. Every weekday morning, I'll deliver a fundamental rundown ahead of the European Open. But if you subscribe to the channel, you'll also get content from the rest of the team. So, let's begin. Okay. Very good morning to you. It is Monday, 26th of October. I hope you had an excellent weekend. Just a quick word before I begin to remind you guys to sign up for our US election preview webinar. We're going to be hosting that at 6pm London time this Friday. Only eight days to go now to the US election, which will be covering live throughout the night via Trading Live. That platform, you can find that link as well in the description. But check that out. It's not only going to be me. I'm going to be joined by all of the team. I've also got some special guests. We're also going to be going through scenario analysis, the charts, both from an intraday trading the night perspective, but also from medium and long-term implications if you're managing a portfolio. So, definitely something not to be missed, hopefully, and thorough preparation ahead of the main event itself. But let's get straight into things and look at what is going on in markets to get the week underway. Yeah, it's a little bit of a risk off time and overall. That has meant that US and European stock futures are moving lower. The DAX is already down about 180. That's somewhat being compounded by the fact that you had a negative earnings update as well or comment, I should say, from one of the biggest DAX components SAP. Overall, though, it's the main theme of continued increases in COVID-19 across the world, mainly being then the focal points of mainland Europe, which consequently is resulting in more stringent lockdowns in the likes of Italy and Spain, as well as other nations, and also increased cases as well being observed in the US at the moment. That meant then that the dollar was a little bit firmer, kind of more of a traditional flight to quality bid into the reserve currency. We've come back up to around the highs that we were printing back in towards the recovery high into the European afternoon on Friday. So, the Dixie is up about two-tenths of 1%. Consequently, then, both major pairs are negative here in the top left in Eurodollar and Cable. Cable, just finding a bit of a near-term support area here, as you can see from what was the low point of Friday's session, that also being an area, as you can see, these charts are unaltered from what we were looking at from last week. So, quite a key technical point there. Any further breach then opens up a move in the futures back down towards 130, which roughly is around the S1 today on the daily pivots. Elsewhere, oil as well negative, as you really would imagine, when it's driven by increased COVID concerns. Typically, that tends to translate into diminishing demand expectations in at least the short term, the way the oil price tends to react. And further, more stringent lockdown certainly does impede economic activity. And as such, oil's down about a dollar here at 38.87, but there's also some supply news coming out of Libya as they continue to resume production in various different spots across the country. T-notes, then, are up. We're seeing a gain of about five ticks. So, all the asset classes would mimic then a general risk-off type morning, albeit fairly moderate, I would say at this point at least. Certainly will be interesting when the US starts to come in. But gold bucking that trend, and this continues to remain the theme for gold prices at the moment, much more responsive, not so much to the risk perspective, which classically would normally be the defining factor that would dictate price movement, but gold much more responsive to now dollar and the inverse relationship. And with the dollar grinding up overnight and up around two-tenths in the dollar index, gold is down subsequently just below the $1,900 level, trading down about six bucks as we speak. So, going to get straight into the news and let's get you up to speed of things. Again, I'm just going to talk about the market kind of fundamentals from the overnight summary of the news from the weekend. If you want the more technical-oriented setups for the intraday and the week ahead, you need to check out Trading Live on the Amplify website. The link I'll put in the video description. But first off then, kicking off with Mainland Europe, this is looking at Italy. Now, Italy introduced its strongest virus restriction since the end of the national lockdown in May at the weekend. Limiting opening hours for bars, restaurants, they've shut entertainment, gambling venues and gyms. Italians will be urged not to travel at all. The measures will come into effect today and remain in effect until pretty much this time next month, so November 24th. Spain will impose new measures, including a curfew for the virus from 11 p.m. to 6 a.m. France, they saw a surge pushing their infections to another record, just over 52,000. So, continuation really of much of what we were seeing last week, those cases continue to get worse. And as a consequence, then hospital admissions are going up and death rates are gradually ticking higher as well. Away from that, though, one of the other things that's come out in the overnight session, so in focus this morning has been from the Financial Times, they've been reporting about an update for a vaccine by Oxford University in collaboration with AstraZeneca, the pharmaceutical company. And they've produced a robust immune response in elderly people. And obviously, these are the key demographic at risk with this particular virus. According to two people familiar with the matter, the Oxford COVID vaccine trials offering some help then for the elderly. Reading the article, though, it's time to be aware of positive immunogenicity tests. Do not guarantee that the vaccine will ultimately prove safe and effective in older people, though. That will not be known until full trial data for the age group has been analysed. So, it's another one of those where I think that, generally speaking, not just the Financial Times, but media in general knows that this is the hot topic. Markets as well are very sensitive to this type of information. And so, media agencies like to get out the first little glimmer of headline because they know it's going to grab a lot of attention. That's what sells newspapers, or digitally, at least these days. The devil is always in the detail with this. As I just mentioned, actually, when you read through the article, as optimistic as this initial assessment might appear, it's still a long way from actually getting to the point of ultimately proving safe and effective in older people through much more full-scale trial data. So, to be aware of, I don't think it's particularly like the headline, though, of the morning by any means. Separately, Anthony Fauci, who's that US medical expert, he said on Sunday it will be clear whether a COVID-19 vaccine was safe and effective by early December this year, but that more widespread vaccinations would not be likely until later into 2021. So, again, quite interesting comments there coming out of the US over the weekend. Talking of the US, obviously, the stimulus talks continue to dominate things to a large degree. One thing I would say up front, though, is that I think most people in markets now have come to the consensus that there's a lot of political posturing going on here. As I said, just eight days now to the election. And therefore, the sensitivity in markets, the volatility that we were seeing just two weeks ago on every headline coming out from Pelosi and Minchin, I think that ship has sailed slightly. That's not to say that the markets might not react if they, you know, if talks completely break down or for some reason, they find some compromise in a deal gets done, neither of which I foresee this week. I'm just saying that I think there's a little bit of fatigue around this now. And that the market's kind of sharp response that we're seeing to headlines is probably going to diminish. As I think most people are looking now post-election for this type of thing. Nonetheless, though, the latest was that House Speaker Pelosi said the chamber could pass a pandemic relief plan this week. There would deal with the White House remains elusive and Republican-led Senate might not act anyway before the election on November 3rd. Still to keep an eye on, though, as headlines are probably false coming throughout every session this week, I'm sure. A quick look at the polls. This is looking at the RCP national average poll. And Biden still in the lead by eight points. So there has been some fluctuation over the prior week. On the top battleground areas, the lead has not continued to narrow ever so slightly. So it's now 3.8. You can see here, Biden not really moving. It's Trump, which has been narrowing the lead. I did see a really interesting research note actually coming out of European Bank. And they were talking about if you applied the same actual outcome for some of the top battleground states from this time in 2016, when it was Clinton, Trump, the polls, obviously, we know that a lot of them were wrong. And if you were to just translate then the amount that they were wrong to currently then the difference between Trump and Biden in 2020, Trump would pretty much win every single swing state, using the same amounts of swing, if that makes sense. Again, a lot's changed since then. A lot of the pulses have changed methodologies and so on. But overall, it's just definitely not a foregone conclusion yet in my mind that Biden's going to win the election far from it. On that note, one thing to be aware of is that from a couple of things. For one, from a commentary point of view, what can you expect from Trump this week? Well, you can see here listed those key states that will really define perhaps then the balance of power on who's going to win this election. And Trump is heading to Pennsylvania today. He's then set for multiple trips to Michigan, Pennsylvania, again, Wisconsin this week. He also visits Nebraska, Arizona, and Nevada. So he's really got a busy week ahead, trying to really zone in on some of these key states going forward. So the other thing as well that I can absolutely assure you that you're going to hear from Donald Trump again in a week. We quickly jump over to the weekly calendar just to highlight one specific piece of data, which is this. This is the advanced third quarter GDP number coming out of the US. And that comes out Thursday. And that is going to be broadcasted by Trump from the high heavens. And that's because after seeing a contraction of over 31% in US GDP and Q2, the consensus estimate on the street is for a bounce back of 32% in the first reading for Q3. So nothing like vindication that you've done all of the right moves than an economy bouncing back so aggressively. Now we know that that's not strictly binary in terms of that he is the component behind what's really created such a powerful response. It's much more complicated than that. But this simple narrative to the electorate will be will be clean. And I expect Trump to really be banging the drum later on this afternoon. And couldn't be better timing really, just going just a few days that will be then into the US election, Trump's going to have delivered a spectacular rebound in the economy in a very short period of time. And whether or not that's enough to sway voters minds, perhaps it could be because he really is going to be pressing home that point. In regards to his administration and their kind of overall perception of being pro growth and so on. Okay, elsewhere, Brexit definitely is ongoing. This is a picture of the Northern Irish Secretary Brandon Lewis. He appeared on Andrew Marshall in the UK at the weekend. But the overall summary here is the EU chief negotiator Michelle Barnier was planning to extend his stay in London till Wednesday. He was due to leave town at the end of last week. He's committed to stay now for one of the three days of talks here in London and EU sources have said that those talks will then resume and pick up from Thursday in Europe. So both sides then willing to get back at it and try and break the deadlock over one of the same sticking points, which is state aid and fishing rights. To give you a bit of context, what my thoughts are here, the next soft deadline is the end of the month. And that's what Boris was kind of insinuating that, you know, we're not going to a deal by mid October, then we'll get a deal by the end of October. I think that's absolute nonsense. And once again, political posturing. And not blaming Boris, I think he's following the right strategic approach at the moment, which is that of any negotiation, which is trying to just keep as much pressure on the conversation as possible. I don't see anything really tangible happening this week. And perhaps I don't see anything really, the deadlock being broke for another four weeks, at least. That's when you've got the EU parliamentary meetings happening on the 23rd, 26th of November. So as such, I think Sterling could get a little less responsive to these headlines now, because I think most people share that view if there's any deal force coming, it's not going to be so much this week, it's probably going to be more like mid to late November, as such, then it's probably unlikely politicians knowing these other more fixed deadlines of significance that they're going to cut deal this early, I think that's very low probability. So something to just keep in mind. As far as Sterling is concerned, same goes for Euro dollar, more kind of just looking at the dollar, as far as the morning is concerned, given the fact that, you know, a lack of stimulus, but more importantly, increasing COVID concerns resulting in actual further restrictions that happening in major economic areas in the world, that could create a flight to quality bid in the dollar. And if that does, it might overshadow anything else. And those major pairs might trade quite heavy. Talking of the lockdowns that are happening in mainland Europe, that's probably likely to dictate a lot of what we're going to hear from one of the main central banks this week, you've got the ECB, the BOJ and the BOC all coming out this week. None of them are actually expected any policy changes. But as far as the ECB is concerned, it's all about listening to Christine Lagarde and understanding is she going to kind of shoe in further extension to the pandemic emergency purchase program in December. Bloomberg Economist surveyed last week, anticipating that to be increased by 500 billion. That's gone up from the 350 billion when they previously surveyed about a month ago. I don't think there's much doubt that that's going to happen at the end of the year, the way that the virus is now impacting what was a brief economic recovery in some of these nations is likely to result in this kind of quote, double dip type recession as the second kind of wave hits. And so more commitment, let's say of emergency stimulus on offer from the ECB, I think is forthcoming. How might this be given as a hint from Lagarde? She's not going to come out, of course, in the way that central banks communicate. She's not going to be explicit. But what she probably will say is that downside risks have increased. She might draw attention to the fact that these new lockdowns and materializing that the virus continues to perform in a very uncertain way. All of these would be kind of soft nonce towards the fact that the ECB are preparing for more to come to the future. As far as the other central banks, the Bank of Japan is likely to downgrade its GDP and inflation forecasts for similar type of reasons. But there's no expectation really of it changing any of its actual policy on QQE or your curve control. As far as the Bank of Canada is concerned, no expectations unchanged for their interest rates while maintaining generally a cautious tone is probably the most likely order of the day. Their projections in their monetary policy report might well be more potentially market moving than the actual policy announcement in itself. That makes sense. Moving on, I did mention briefly SAP and the DAX was trading quite heavy. The DAX in Germany is already down about 200 points in the futures trading of its S2 at the moment. But SAP is one of the biggest cap names in the DAX. I think it's still around 10% or so of the index. They cut their guidance for 2020 on Sunday for the medium term. They said that the reimposition of coronavirus lockdown said hit its business while hard hit industries will now take longer than expected to recover. It's a worth keeping an eye on them at the open. And in fact, if I can quickly bring up Lang and Schwartz, I can get a pre-market indication. Let's have a look. Wow. SAP are called down 12.2% early open. So be mindful of that. That's a severe headwind given their large market capitalization for the index overall in Germany. So going into already headwinds on the back of negative stock pricing on the COVID developments that we continue to be seeing. Oil as well as I'm talking is just broken through Friday's loan. Just so you're aware. Talking of oil, not just the kind of demand being impeded or the perception of it with COVID at the forefront of investors' attention. Libya lifted the force-missue on Rasslanouf and Esyder ports. What it expects then production to reach 800,000 brows per day within two weeks and surpassed 1 million brows per day in four weeks. This is according to the NOC, the state-run company. So, I mean, Libyan oil production then has gone from kind of low 100 to 150 up to potentially 1 million now that the civil war is kind of at a ceasefire at the moment, at least for the time being. That is an incredible increase in rapid pace for the country in this production. It really does jeopardize then the validity of the ongoing OPEC plus deal, which in total isn't that much larger in terms of total output taken off the market overall. So, something to be to be mindful of here. Further deterioration in the COVID situation, I think it's super difficult for the US to go into any degree of type of lockdown at the moment and that's irrespective of the fact that in America at the weekend they reached a record number of coronavirus infections for a second day in a row. Over 85,000 cases. Florida reported several recent days of elevated infections. Texas is working to contain a hot spot in El Paso and hospitalizations in the US Midwest. The focus of recent weeks is already exceeding what we saw in the initial kind of waves that we had. I think that's a little bit the latter one. I wouldn't call it waves in that case. It's more tri-state, southwestern states and Midwest all hitting and experiencing their first waves. But the point being is that they've never been higher at this point in those areas and so yeah oil might find tough time ahead if these things continue to deteriorate in combination with Libya continuing to really fire up the facilities at the moment. Talking about earnings then, this week is super busy actually. US earnings wise we've got 183 S&P 500 companies reporting 10 of the 30 down components. Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, you know your big mega cap tech names are all reporting on Thursday after the close so that's definitely one to put in the calendar there to watch for sure. Other highlights as you can see here before the market opens tomorrow you've got Pfizer, 3M, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, got Boeing, GE, Pre-Market, UPS on Wednesday, Exxon, Chevron, Pre-Market on Friday so yeah big earnings week ahead in store particularly Thursday night for those big tech names. Then just summarizing the overall calendar for this week. This morning you've got the German iPhone numbers for October, always worth just keeping an eye on but it might well just be overshadowed by the COVID developments that we continue to be seeing particularly manifesting in those increased restrictions in Europe at the weekend. New home sales coming out the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index this afternoon. Don't forget as well the clocks in the UK changed this weekend, they do not change in the US until this weekend so this week alone then US data if you're based in London is going to be coming out an hour earlier than normal so you're 130s at 1230s you're 3 p.m. is coming out at 2 o'clock of course and your open on Wall Street will be at 130 for this week so do not get caught in a tricky spot just forgetting that specific point. Tuesday US Durable Goods probably one of the highlights to get the Richmond Fed National Activity Index and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Reading as well. Wednesday you get the Bank of Canada rate decision but overall pretty quiet the advanced goods trade balance number out in the US. Going into then overnight and Thursday morning got the BoJ you don't also get that US GDP Advanced Q3 reading with the ECB rate decision and that's all coming on Thursday so quite a busy day there in combination with all those earnings that I mentioned as well as US pending home sales then Friday you get German GDP Q3 preliminary reading you also get then the advanced Q3 reading for the Eurozone with growth and core CPI and if in the US you get your PCE your core PCE deflator numbers and that's pretty much the whole week so locked in store as I've said a number of times though the main things people looking at here is really the deterioration that's happening in what the markets are very sensitive to which is the Western developed world and covid cases increase restrictions which will impede economic activity and reshaping people's perception about the future that is this morning causing a bid into the US dollar is creating then weakness in equities which in turn is fueling fixed income and an oil decreasing on the back of the more gloomy perception about the economic future going forward so that's the kind of how things are shaping up at this present point in time alright guys that is it I'm going to let you get on with things but don't forget to check out the registration link for the US election preview one not to be missed again I'm going to go through my full kind of break down of what everything you need to know for training that event and then the rest of the team will be joining me as well so hopefully I'll see you then alright have a good day have a good week and I'll see you same time tomorrow