 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey everyone, good morning everybody, and welcome to another edition of the Access to Trader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is having a great, great weekend. Summer is in full bloom. 100 degrees here today in New Jersey. A lot of us in the Northeast are going to get hit with some crazy, crazy hot weather today. But again, let that be the worst of our problems in life and everything will be okay. So let's talk about the market. You'll notice a couple of things. When you go through charts this weekend or if you did, you'll notice several things. Number one, indexes are strong, right? Very, very strong. If you look at the scoreboard, you're not going to really get a good sense of kind of what happened this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Lab, you can keep this in mind, you know, 2% move. Again, there's only 30 stocks. Again, it's not really the hardest thing for the Dow Jones to put a move. But again, if you look at all the other indexes, the S&P up 1%, while the NASDAQ down 1%. Again, the 1% was clear case of number one, the index outperformed everything, okay? Over the last three, four months, five months, whatever the case may be, since the corona case. So all this was a well-deserved, healthy week of profit-taking. And if you notice what happened this week, a lot of names got pulled very, very hard and then kind of started to drift. Why that's important? On the surface, everything is fine, right? Everything is fine here. You have the cues, you know, trying to reclaim the five-day moving average, which is healthy, again, still above this rising wedge, which again is still very, very bullish. And if you look at all the other indexes, you'll kind of see the same thing, right? The Dow, again, we'll use the diamonds as a proxy here, the Dow, you know, tested its five-day moving average, held so far obviously a clear line in the sand going forward below this 266 level, which has been an incredibly important level going into this week. Okay, so we have a very, very defined level here. But from the outside looking in, everything looks fine. You look at the IWM, for example, which ironically out of all the formations on the index is actually shaping up the best. Again, needs to confirm, but shaping up the best. You had this gap up here on Wednesday in the next couple of days of consolidation so you could clearly see kind of the upwards line in the sand if you want to call it towards the next upper channel potential. So everything looks fine. The problem is, and again, we know we're not, you know, we're not in the boat of everything looks fine. Don't worry about it. Again, we're always trying to play devil's advocate. Again, I don't care what type of trader you are. Your responsibility to your money is to always try to identify, well, what possibly can go wrong? Again, you can't go into every single week thinking everything is going to be okay. Again, just as the people came Monday and Tuesday, all the investors, if everything was okay, right? Came Friday, last Friday, Tesla was like an 1800, Amazon, you know, these stocks were crazy in orbit and every day we kept on talking about a possible pull, possible pull. Now, again, the novice investor is going to turn to me and say, well, eventually if you're going to say it, eventually it's going to be right. Yeah, of course, but if you're not prepared for it, again, why give back a month worth of trading in one day? Might as well be prepared for it and have a look out and take advantage of the potential pull. And that's exactly what kind of happened on Monday and Tuesday. And I'll get to the relevance of this kind of going forward into this week. So if you look at Tuesday's, excuse me, Monday's action, again, you saw this really, really aggressive pull. Again, we were prepared for it. Okay, we took advantage of it. We were prepared for it. The next day's gap-up, which again I was praying for on the Monday night video, again, stocks got bought into supply on the gap-up. Unfortunately, a lot of novice investors, again, obviously if you didn't watch my video, you would have no idea. A lot of novice investors got caught buying stocks into supply on Tuesday. Huge reversal. Again, so you had back-to-back days of reversal. And even though they didn't create monthly or weekly technical damage, what happens is when you get a big pull off of a really aggressive levels, it kind of leaves stocks in no man's land. And when you got into Wednesday's session, you saw that something called the most dreaded word in the trade of vocabulary. You don't care what type of trader you are. That word is distribution, okay? Which basically means after the initial pull of really, really good, very good destruction rug pull, it kind of led stocks into no man's land. And going into Wednesday, and I thought Wednesday was the most important day of the week, in my opinion, was just because we knew that there was going to be an incredible AKH chop, right? Stocks are not going to have enough aggression to go down because they had two separate days of really, really aggressive selling. And they're obviously not going to have any moves to the upside because, again, a lot of traders, after you get punched in the face three, four times, you want to know what's going to happen next. Am I going to get kicked in the ribs now? Or is it okay to kind of open up my eyes to see the coast is clear? So Wednesday, we kind of knew that. And the most ironic part going into Wednesday's session, I knew it was going to be a chop session. I knew the value was going to be very, very anemic. And I had a losing day on Wednesday. Nothing bad, just to the point that I couldn't get anything going because, again, there wasn't enough expansion. Again, as you can imagine, there was already too much movement to the downside and nobody wanted to buy stocks. So I gave back a little bit of money on Wednesday's session, but we kind of knew that Thursday we were going to be sell buys. Just because, again, the market couldn't rally on that Wednesday's session. And obviously that spilled into Friday as well. But again, if you take away Wednesday's session, and again, the reason why I say it was the most important session, again, we could have done incredible damage to our accounts by pressing the issue, trying to squeeze the water out of Iraq, trying to trade the market the same way we did Monday and Tuesday. And Wednesday, when you have consolidation or distribution or channels getting tight, you're not going to get anywhere. And it's very, very important. So we did the prudent thing. And this is what we always talk about, the intangibles, the little things, the stuff that doesn't show up in the box score, by the way. Can't wait for baseball to start. Yesterday I was watching Yankee's Mets, two innings, but I still watched it. But again, it's the things we do to our accounts that are going to give it value that doesn't show up on the ledger by sitting it out, by doing the prudent thing, doing the adult thing, no understanding that we don't have an advantage for that day. Because it would have been really a crime to our detriment if we would have continually pushed on Wednesday's session, gave back Monday and Tuesday and started again on Thursday. It just doesn't work that way. Again, you have to be smart enough. Longer that you start trading, you really start doing, you really start trading this as a business. I know a lot of people talk about it when you have to treat it like a business. You really don't understand what that means until you're actually five, seven, 12, 15 years in, 20 years in, and you start to realize that every single day is not an area for you to take advantage. It's more of an area for you to get separated for your money. So I thought Wednesday was a very, very important session, a very adult-like session to kind of sit it out after the initial, aka, chop. And Thursday was really good. And Friday went some pretty good action. Ironically, Beta was not in the centerpiece of Thursday and Friday. It was more Monday and Tuesday. And we'll talk about that in a second. But that kind of leads us into this week. And again, if you look at the index, you're not going to find any clues there. But if you are looking, for example, on individual names, you'll understand why, in my opinion, I think that the market is going to be a very, very important delicate area of positioning this week. And I kind of want to start out with the cues, right? So the cues we already know with our bottom of the channel is the two days that it got pulled, putting a low here on this rising long-term wedge that started all the way back here. So we already know what our downside is, okay? Any close. And again, this is not a subjective point of interest. This is technical analysis. This is the most bare bones key area to understand which way the wind is going to blow. So to the downside, we have the cues, 250 to 70, any close below 250 to 70. Again, if you believe that stocks trade from supply to supply, well, then you have to understand the stocks trade from demand to demand. And that will be the first close since, you know, going all the way back to, all the way back to, you know, all the way back to January, February, February, March, right? March closing underneath this rising wedge. So any close below 250 to 70 is super bearish, or at least super sell side, and you don't want to be, right? You definitely don't want to be long. Again, the market needs to reclaim, the cues need to reclaim at least this 260 level on a close. Obviously, any close above 263 would confirm this whole downtrend and reclaim the five-day moving average. So very, very important. If you look at the Dow components, right? Same thing here. We're kind of in a no-man's land here. And again, we're very, very close to kind of start breaking down short-term support. If you see this rising five-day moving average, again, if you're new to the broadcast, the five-day for me is the shortest-term indicator showing where the sell bias or buy-bys can't take place over the next several days. And you can see here, just, you know, just with your bare eyes, that the rising five-day held twice, right? 266 on the diamonds held twice. So any close below 266 on the diamonds is, again, I'm not saying it's going to be the, you know, the arm again. Again, we're not talking about, we're not trying to put fear-mongering or any unrealistic situations on the table. We're just trying to win our interval day-to-day. So any, you know, any build below 266 on the diamonds, we'll start a selling effect and going all the way back down to this 263, and if it extends down to the 50-day moving average of roughly the 259, 260 area, so it's very, very important. IWM, again, for all you guys who are trading the smaller capitalization names, I don't want to confuse the word small caps, I don't want to confuse anybody. But if you are trading, especially in your process, is affected by the rustle, you really have to pay attention to these levels. Twice, they did a great job reclaiming this daily supply, which is great. But now it needs to reclaim this, you know, this, you know, 148 level on the close. Any close above 148 will start a buy signal, okay? And a buy signal, if you believe, again, stocks trade from supply to supply can have a measured potential all the way up to this 252 area. So these areas are very, very important. And again, you kind of need to set your game plan around those levels. Again, you can't be arrogant enough to think that, well, if the Dow cracks that, you know, that level on the rising five-day support, you can't turn around and say, ah, it doesn't apply to me, my stock will be strong. Why? Because you want it to be strong. Again, don't, you know, don't piss into the wind, okay? That's the nicest way I can say it. Do not piss into the wind. It's very, very important to go with momentum, not against it. And that's how, again, a macro view of your portfolio, a macro view of your trading environment is so important to understand early, not when it gets late. So these are the levels that are very, very important. And the second reason why I say they're very, very important, again, if you look at the leaders that had big runs, and again, you can make an argument to say that, you know what, Amazon's just putting in a really deserved rest. Yes, Tesla's putting in a really, really deserved rest. Then Apple. And the reason why I want to say that is, here's kind of a little bit of a red flag and this is why we want to pay attention what happens early Monday and especially, Monday and Tuesday. Look at all these names, right? So Amazon had this really, really big run, but now it's four days under, right? The five-day moving average, again, that short-term sentiment. If you look at four days in a row, right? Four days in a row, you're putting in lower highs and it keeps on getting rejected off this orange line, which is the five-day. Now, Amazon starts losing macro, right? This rising support. Everybody see this? Every single time it hits this rising support, it keeps on bouncing. If we close below this rising support, Amazon, you know, Amazon has 150 points down, okay? If you look at Tesla's chart, again, I love Tesla, I trade it long, I trade it short, it's all good, right? But he noticed now, it's like a couple days in a row it's gotten rejected off the five-day. It starts losing this 10-day moving average and again, then you have, you're talking about 150 points of downside. Again, these are not, you know, again, I love Tesla, I trade it long, I trade it short, so I'm not in the camp and say, well, everything's going to be all right. It's not going to be all right. If you don't look at the technical levels, you know, I don't care how much I love Tesla as a company, I don't care how much the car is beautiful, but again, I have no problems. This thing starts losing the 10-day only, especially on the close. This thing has 150 points of downside. This is a tremendous amount of downside value coming up if these stocks start losing support. If you start going one by one, you'll start seeing the same thing. Apple, the same thing, second day in a row below the five-day moving average. You look at NVIDIA, for example, same thing on NVIDIA. Five-day moving average is very, very important. If you look at, for example, Microsoft, you can pretty much go down the whole list. You have one, two, three days in a row and it's almost confirming, right? Just sneak back above this rising wedge. So if you go through a lot of charts, again, we don't need to go through every single chart in NASDAQ 100, but if you do go through every single chart, you'll start seeing a lot of similarities. And again, if these similarities turn into confirmation, then we're going to have a very, very strong value to the downside. We're going to be talking to you guys who are trading on the option side. If you think you did well to the upside with measure potential a week and a half ago with the Teslas, with the Amazons in the world, with the Roku's of the world, just wait until these things lose, right, the downside channels. You're going to have equal, okay? Equal and more aggression to the downside. So if you caught the upside, the value trade is definitely to the downside. But again, the bulls are going to need to do a lot of work to kind of reclaim the upward bias. And again, if you look at the, you know, the daily chart on the Qs, you're not going to get a sense of that. You really have to do some digging and really put in the work to kind of really see where these stocks are. But again, everything becomes moot. If the Qs reclaim the 5-day moving average on a close then we're going to start going back to the, you know, to the rising, rising Volinger band. So again, Monday, Tuesday, a very important level. So a good week overall on Monday and Tuesday was super aggressive, incredible rug pulls. On Wednesday, I chopped myself a little bit. But again, at least I stopped it around lunchtime. So really not a lot of harm done. Thursday was good and Friday was solid as well. So let's talk about Friday's session. And again, you could see where the value was, right? Again, and it just kind of a key note. This is something more clues we definitely want to watch. So Netflix came out with earnings, right? Subscriptions surged, income, net income, disappointed a little bit. Obviously, their guidance wasn't stellar. And again, the market pulled it down. And again, before you turn around and say wow, the market really pulled it down, if you look at Netflix chart, I mean, again, it's one of those scenarios. You know, the stock was at 300. Under 300, you know, talking about January, March 17th, okay, the stock is still nearly doubled since March. So the idea that, you know, it got hit, okay, right. But the point is, guidance wasn't great, okay. We're kind of in one of those scenarios. Well, everything is even good earnings baked in to the stock, to all these companies that had big runs. And we're going to get a lot more answers this week. You know, you have all the McGilligarillas, right? You have all the monsters reporting this week. The Amazons, the Googles, the Facebooks, the Teslas, you know, the Microsoft, the Apple. So this week isn't important in that. Obviously, we'll definitely get kind of a more clues of what's going to happen for the rest of the summer, based on the reporting of these companies. There's something to kind of watch out. But again, if you look at Friday's session, you'll see kind of the value was in other areas, even with the beta pivots. You know, you got some good moves, some decent moves, but you didn't get that expansion. And that's kind of the whole point. Ironically, I started the day with NIO. And again, it's usually not a stock that I would trade. But I was sitting here and I was watching, you know, I was kind of watching the news and you know, Goldman Sachs comes out with a sell rating, right? Sell rating of a $7 price target. And here's where you know, you know, here's where you really know that you've been trading too long. I thought NIO, and maybe it's my dyslexia kicking in, I thought NIO was the biotech because I just don't trade these stocks. So I thought NIO was N-O. I literally thought I was shorting NIO. And the reason I started shorting the stock, number one, I saw the Goldman Catalyst, right? And if you look at this area, if you look at this area pre-market, $1240 was the low on $1240 was the low on July the 14th and the previous days low was $1245. So I knew this $1240 was the line in the sand and the stock got downgraded. It was trading $1250s, $1250s, $1260s. So I shorted it on the $1240 and $1240 low. I tweeted this out very, very early. I think I tweeted this thing out like I think it's $730, $730 in the morning. So $1240 I shorted it and the stock I killed. I mean, I knew there was a measure potential at least to the $1090s. $1095 was my lowest cover, which I was very, very happy about. Again, considering I don't trade these things. But again, this is when you know you're completely burnt out mentally. I thought I was shorting the biotech I-N-O. So N-I-O, N-I-O, I-N-O Again, a chart is a chart is a chart. It doesn't make a difference what happens. So I'm pretty happy with the move here. Tesla never gave a second entry. And again, this is where it keeps on failing off the top of the level. $1533, $1535 only got to $1538. And this is where again, guys, I can't emphasize enough, especially for all you guys who are trading pivots, you have to take the second entry. So basically, let it go through the pivot. Let it go through the pivot. Put in a new high. Let it retrace. And once it goes through, that is the second entry. Again, you can't have FOMO, especially not with a Tesla, not with an Amazon. You're going to get killed if you have FOMO. If you're going to go in the first time, you're going to get murdered. Because again, these spreads are super wide. And if there is an exaggerated seller there, you need to crush. So again, that's the whole point. You can't cheat the process. You have to go in second entry. Or else what's the point of trading it? 495, nice little trade here. 495 rejection twice pre-market needs to build. Can get to 500 supply experience traders only. So this is actually a pretty decent risk reward. Second entry, one point max stop. 495 here is Netflix pre-market. Again, this is where we talk about sneaky channels. So here is the sneaky channel right here. If you see here, pre-market right here. Let me just get this out of the way. So 495, 489, 494, 74. So this is kind of the area, the cheat area here. Not cheat, but the sneaky pivot. And the reason why I said 500, right? Here's the supply here. So it took this out. It went to almost 504. So good job for all you guys who took the move. Again, you got a $9 candle on an area of interest that nobody's looking at. That's very, very important. Facebook never confirmed this area. BYND, I'm still looking for this whole macro area. I have a feeling if this thing confirms, this is going to be a really good trade to the downside. So I'm still watching these levels here. Zoom was a nice little move. Macro, it still hasn't confirmed, but it's a nice little move here at 243.30, 243 if it builds below Conflush. Here was ZM, right? So here is the 243. Here is the 243.40, which is the previous days low and went right to the Bollinger Band at 241 and changed. So a couple of bugs there. Here's the macro view that we are watching for this week. If you have any clothes below this candle here, you have, man, you got like $20 worth of downside. A lot of these companies have exactly the same view. That's why, again, in a weird way, I'm kind of cheering for the downside this week just because there's just so much more value. Baba never gave a second entry to the upside. Again, bingo, you have a $6, $7 move, NIO $10.40 to the upside. Here is the biggest move. And first of all, congratulations for all you guys who are still holding a runner on NKLA. We've been watching this level now for a pretty long time, okay? Pretty long time here and 51 huge macro support if it builds bloke and flush. So the first move, the first move, it just literally went straight down. The first move on this 51 level, forget about all of this, I'll talk about that in a second. But here is the 51, right? Here is the 51 area. And the first move went down to like 47 and changed. So that was a great move and I know a lot of you guys are holding runners and after the close, they obviously came out with news. They're registering stock. Again, that's a no-no. So for all you guys who are holding 45 puts, and again, if you guys remember in the beginning of the week, somebody came in with those end of July, August 45 puts. They knew, man. Somebody always knows. And again, a lot of you guys would be very, very happy. It traded that under 40. It traded under 40 to close on this, on this news. So, you know, good job, guys. Good job. Your runners are definitely be, definitely be good. Microsoft, not a big move, only put up a 50 cent move 50 cent move and then snap right back. ZM take on the way down again, 240. This is the big number going forward. NIO, perfect, perfect move there. And KLA, obviously a really good move there. This name I still really, really like. Docu, we saw a big, big buyer come in, right? Really, really big buyer come in on the July end of July 90 was it 95 calls and that really, really sprung the stock up. DOCU 194 needs to build, right? So, here was 194. Stock closed almost in 197. So, very, very strong move. I still like Docu, okay? I still think it just needs to take out this whole area here. And what else we saw we had a bunch of bounce plays as well. And again, for all you guys, just kind of as a little tip I don't trade small caps anymore unless they have order flow, okay? Unless they have options order flow. And I've been kind of talking about this now for quite a while, okay? And they're incredibly high probability trades because what happens is when there's option flow especially in the stock that's like on the bottom of the channel, okay? It's going to give a move, okay? It's going to give a very, very big move here. And we started seeing Friday IDEX, right? If you look at IDX and again, it's not one of those oh my god, I can't believe this happened. But the stock was trading 127, right? 127, 128. And we started seeing in the excuse me, the stock was trading 127, 128 and we just started seeing one after another call buying come in in the money. Like literally one, it was like an AK-47 spring. Like it was like seven, eight orders in a row. And they just spiked up they spiked up the stock from like 127 to like 143 in like two minutes, like very, very quickly. So if you do like trading small cap stocks instead of like chasing some random avatars alert and stuff like that, again if you're patient enough and you just sit there for the option order flow, you could do very, very well. I mean we've, you know, we've been hitting these small cap order flow trades for a while now. So they're been pretty good. Just kind of a tip there. They just, you're going into institutional order flow. So I think it's a much better risk reward scenario than just buying some stock up 250% for the day to try to make 10 cents, right? Just doesn't make sense. So just a kind of tip of advice. If you do trade small cap names, I think it's a really, really good way, organic way to kind of build up your account. We kind of use this as like supplemental, right? I guess supplemental income. It's actually pretty cool way to get your account going in the right way. So again, kind of a review. Pretty important week going into this week. Again, the corona cases are spiking again. You know, we'll see what happens. You know, we'll see what happens. But macro wise I think the bulls really need to, really need to kind of get their footing down because again, if levels start to confirm, short-term levels start to confirm, you're going to see very, very aggressive moves to the bottom. So in a weird way, I'm kind of hoping that we have confirmation to the downside just because how big these run-ups were and how much measure potential distance we possibly have. So if you guys are joining us this week in the live webinar, please arrive at 9am eastern time. That's when morning strategy kicks in. And for all you guys who are joining us on the private twitter feed welcome aboard and we will see you all on the field on Monday. Guys, God bless. Love you all and I'll talk to you tomorrow. Bye-bye. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. 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