 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning, Market's Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody, I'm Tommy O'Brien, company live from TFNN just after 9 a.m. Eastern time. On Wednesday morning we got some GDP numbers, we got a little bit of FedSpeak out there and we got markets accelerating to higher price levels. Almost at that high we were talking about yesterday, right? What are you talking about? 46.34, I think is the high from July. We talked about the 1 to 1.618 expansion, just about 4600, about 4607. Markets this morning, up by about half a percent in the S&Ps right now trading up 24 points at 45.87, we were just as high as 45.90. NASDAQ 100, we catch a bit, up 113 points, that's 7 tenths percent in the positive. The Dow up a similar 112 points right now, that's 3 tenths percent in the positive, 35,056 and the Russell right now, up, you talk about volatility man, up 9 tenths percent, we were just at 18.20, we're up by 16 points in the Russell. Crude was almost just up to 78 dollars, we're back a bit, still positive by 82 cents on the session at 77.23. How about that gold contract yesterday man, if you haven't signed up for the Gold Report folks, my dad's outstanding weekly newsletter, check it out, great time to sign up for it. 2072 was the number we got last night. Is it 2089? 2089 is the all time high on the futures man. We got within a stone's throw that last night, we're pushing the highs this morning and what does that have to do with? Well, it has to do with yields and it has to do with the dollar index and yet again we get the 10 year right now. Let's get the exact number, what are we sitting at right now? We're under 4.3%, absolutely remarkable man, the 10 year right now, up another 12 ticks at 110.08, we were as high as 110.14 in the overnight session, the 30 year up 21 ticks at 117.02, great day to have some Fed speak, some GDP numbers, we talked to our man Kevin Hinks after the first break, we talked to our man Teddy Kegstad at 40 past the hour, we always talk some commodities, foreign currencies and yields come into that picture as well of course at 40 past the hour with Teddy. Dollar index this morning, we jumped to 102.46, we're still basically almost flat, you're actually positive a bit to 102.88 on the dollar index and we jump over to the VIX, 12.58, do we get an 11 handle? It's very possible as this market just continues higher to say the least. All right, where do we kick things off? How about GDP? 5.2% in the third quarter and that's more than first estimated is how they surmise it there, upwardly revised, 5.2% annualized pace in the third quarter, the fastest in nearly two years, consumer spending advanced to the less robust 3.6% rate, the downward revision to household outlays reflected slower growth in services spending. Yeah, after previously reported decline, business investment was revised up to a 1.3% gain on the back of firm outlays for structures, housing also stronger than was initially reported. So quite a GDP number, you get this morning, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric, the personal consumption expenditure revised down to 2.8% annual rate, excluding food and energy, 2.3%, now we get that number on tomorrow morning for October is what we get. But nonetheless, that's feeling some of the action this morning as these markets trade higher in pretty dramatic fashion. But it would make sense like we were talking about yesterday, right? In terms of, excuse me one second, pulling up these headlines. In terms of the numbers, let's take a look at that S&P like we were talking about yesterday, because today might be the day, and it would be interesting if today's the day. You're talking about a recent high of 46.3450, July 24th, the week of. At that high, now what that also correlates to, back to a daily on the S&P, if you missed the program yesterday, that one to 1.618 expansion of the pullback you had starting in October, pretty remarkable, right? You're talking about only five or six weeks ago, five or six weeks ago, folks, and we're pushing 4,600 in change just over the period of five or six weeks. But guess what? Yields have done dramatic things since then as well. As you had the yield, where was that high? What was the date of the high you were coming in? About October 12th, yeah. Okay. And look at how it goes, right? The tenure trading basically in step with the markets with yield inverted, as in the market when it was making that 46.34, had the tenure at 108.16, you got all the way down to 105.10, that's when you had the tenure yield above 5%. That's when you had the stock market at 4100 in change. And since then, the tenure is up five full points, okay? The tenure yield has dropped from above 5% to now below 4.3% and at the same period of time, we've seen the stock market accelerate in pretty dramatic fashion, man. You're talking about some lofty numbers to put it lightly, but nonetheless, we come into the Fed's preferred inflation gauge tomorrow. So keep your eye on that one, man. Maybe we get that final push higher and we get a little bit of a relief pullback potentially on that economic number tomorrow. But we go right into it after that, man. A week from Friday, we get non-farm payrolls and two weeks from today, we have a Fed meeting. So it just keeps going, man. The money, the economic data that goes into that holiday season. Absolutely remarkable when you look at it that, yeah, December 13th is two weeks away and Christmas, well, what? December 1st is Friday. So we're coming into December and December 1st. Absolutely remarkable. All right, let's jump around to some of the action this morning. We jump over to Footlock of Shares. They are trading higher this morning. They come out with their numbers and they rise on earnings beat and gives a more upbeat sales outlook Let's pull it over from CNBC. So Footlocker beat third quarter earnings and sales expectations. They expect better same-store sales this year than it previously did. And yeah, they're dealing with inflation and Nike's focus on direct sales. Boy, they sell a lot of Nike's and that's they're trying to get over that hump. Same-store sales decline of 8.5 to 9%. The market was looking for 9 to 10. Pretty remarkable, right? You say, ah, sales are only going to drop by 8.5 to 9%. But it shouldn't be too surprising when you take a look at this chart. We just dropped from 45 bucks down to 15. We just dropped from 65 at the market peak in 2001. You're sitting at 23. You're going to pop to 26. But you're just coming back into this consolidation that you were basically in from May all the way into their last earnings event in August and all you've done has gotten right back into this range. So you're going to have some consolidation. You're going to have to work your way through that area. If you're looking for Footlocker, the upper boundary line, these are weekly bars. It had a $2.50 range for basically three straight months, and you're going to be back in that range. So maybe $27.50, see if it breaks above that price level for Footlocker. We jump over to GM. How about a price tag, man? The Union labor deals will increase cost by $9.3 billion and add approximately $575 in cost per vehicle during the terms of the deals. Ah, interesting in terms of the, how do I put this delicately, right? The bias that is presented. It's important to realize who you're getting this information from. You're getting it from the company. Of course, the company is going to say, hey, all these employees, they're going to make $10 billion of cost. They're going to make me add $500 to every vehicle in your car. You don't hear that said when GM is passing on the profits to their shareholders. You don't see GM saying, hey, we made $10 billion, $20 billion this year. We're just passing, you know, X amount of dollars on. So it's always a PR battle right now, especially on the heels of that historic strike. GM said, $9.3 billion in labor costing pieces are expected to occur. And that's all the way 2028 those car companies. All right, folks, stay tuned. We're 15 minutes away from the open bell. We'll come back with Kevin Hanks. Don't go away. 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At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today. TFNN, Educating Investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den. Available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Folks, we got the S&Ps up by 20 points right now. Markets catching a little bit of a lift. We got yields pulling back as well to talk about some of the action. Let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hanks. Every trading day, folks, 12 noon Eastern time, fast market from the Schwab network right here on TigerTV. Check it out. Your host, Kevin Hanks, Tom White. They're usually walking you through hypothetical trade setups using options. All of them have defined risk, quite an attribute. All of them defined risk, usually three trades a program. Kevin, I feel like it's the record player that's broken. We got higher prices in the market. We got lower yields coming at us yet again. Good morning. Good morning, Tommy. The market like the revisions to GDP and the passive lease resistance with comments from Fed Governor Waller yesterday, I think puts this market on a path. Now, tomorrow we need a year-over-year PCE to come in and a nice soft number to keep this rally going because what can stop this rally is reigniting inflation. So, with the GDP now 5.2% the revisions to personal income, disposable income and personal savings were all slightly higher. That's good, but the question is, is good news good news again? And it looks like at least to start the day, good news is good news, Tommy. Sure does, man. I got green across the board on that thinkorswim platform. We talk about many times, Kevin, that sometimes we talk about equities that you guys cover on fast market. Maybe some equities have a high bar for their earnings. Some equities have a low bar for their earnings. I find myself, Kevin, looking at this market right now saying the bar is pretty high. Man, we just traded from 4100 and change. We're pushing 4600. You just had yields go from above to 5%. We're at 4.3% right now. We're at 4.28% when I started the program 20 minutes ago. What do you think about the high bar? You said it tomorrow we got some economic data. Do you see room for this market to run? Because in my opinion, man, it's quite a percentage wise acceleration, right? You've come on the program before and said, geez, from those numbers we were at on October 27th, just gang buster numbers to the upside. Do you think this market might struggle a little bit to push higher bar being so high right now? Well, the low bar and high bar is stock specific, right? I mean, sure, the Magnificent 7 incredibly high bar. That's why you saw Nvidia come out with earnings and the stock really hasn't moved or actually slightly lower. But there's a lot of companies out there like Target, like Dollar Tree that came out with earnings yesterday. It's slightly lower but kind of hanging in there this morning. There's a very low bar on some of these names. Remember, Tommy, 493 companies haven't had as good of a year as the 7 that are driving this market higher. So I think there's still room for some type of rotation into those other names. But yeah, it's a little dicey. Right now this market continues to be led by seven key stocks. We need the other 493 to show up, Tommy. Let's jump it through some of those Magnificent 7, as you were talking about it looks like Microsoft's never going down, Kevin. I don't know, I kid, but quite a chart of Microsoft. All of them pretty Magnificent. But boy, Microsoft higher yet again by almost $2 this morning going to open at an all-time high. With that in mind, we march forward, man. You laid it out. We got some important economic data tomorrow morning for inflation. But do you guys have any equities you're talking about coming up at 12 o'clock today, Kevin? More earnings coming out, Tommy. We're going to cover them all like fully. We'll do presentation on five below five. We'll do a discount off price kind of low price retailer that's doing so well. We'll cover sales force that's coming out with earnings and snowflake that's coming out with earnings. So three good earnings trades today to look at, Tommy. Three great stocks, man. You know, it's interesting. They just opened a five below. I've not been in a five below, I think myself, but they just opened one. You know what? We're probably going to make it there though, Kevin, because they just opened one in a public store. So just the presence itself, I found myself saying just the appeal of the store, maybe the curbside appeal, whatever it was. I found myself structuring. Hey, that's they got a good curbside appeal, man. They got a good location. The right next to Publix. Everybody goes to Publix in Florida. So we'll see, but we'll be watching the show today to see what you guys have to talk about. Kevin, I appreciate the time as always on a business morning and we'll be watching at 12 o'clock today. We'll talk to you tomorrow. Thanks for having me on the show. I'm not familiar. The only reason I'm really familiar is because the stock market and they're popping up in some pretty decent spots, man. You know, I'm up near Lakeland, Florida and we don't have the same type of huge malls that they have in the cities, right? We got the closest thing probably is the Brandon Mall that we really enjoy. They have the malls in Tampa, of course, International Plaza, Great Mall in Tampa, but you have a lot of smaller malls in Florida. Many strip malls in Florida and they took over this one spot at the Publix supermarket near us and boy, it's a good presence that they got in there. I can see it in a big way. Yeah, so five below and Salesforce. This one's always an interesting one, man. Salesforce on quite an acceleration from the beginning of the year, well off the highs of 311 right now. Salesforce is going to open about $3 to the upside as we got markets pushing higher price to kick things off. And yeah, Kevin laid it out well and it's a rotation of some sorts because there are plenty of stocks that he mentioned Target, right? What about Disney, right? You talk about low bars, just some that come to mind that have vastly underperformed as we have the market pushing all-time highs. Disney one that comes to mind, Target another one that comes to mind pushing 131 well off the highs of 268 for Target shares and this market just pushing higher up by 23 points as we come into the opening bell. All right, what else we got going on? So Charlie Munger passes away last night. That news hitting just before the close actually and it was interesting that even at the ripe age of 99, he was born in January of I got to recalibrate my brain to make sure I say it correctly. Yeah, 1924 January of 1924 just missed the Centennial by about a month or so. But it was interesting that no real reaction in terms of I imagine that the company Berkshire will be okay with his passing. But it is interesting that everything matters in this market man there was when the news hit the final 10 minutes in the market yesterday. You got Berkshire trading down about $2 off of that but guess what you get it back by this morning. Maybe that was the computers, right? Maybe that was trading off those headlines nonetheless interesting. All right, other news as we come into the opening bell this one's interesting just from a dollars since Mark Cuban he's selling a majority stake in the Dallas Mavericks to the Adelson family. Now here's the kicker okay maybe we'll talk a little bit about this one even afterwards. So Adelson Adelson is Las Vegas Sands okay and what he wants is he wants gambling in Texas and they want to build a huge basically development around potentially a new stadium for the Dallas Mavericks okay and he's selling $2 billion worth of us Las Vegas stock or 10% oh excuse me it's not him he's passed away right it's his wife Miriam Adelson excuse me in the family okay 10% of the stake okay and I was reading about this last night that this could be one of the biggest lobbying plays out there okay and we'll finish this one up after the break I mean Kudos to Cuban I think he bought the team for something like $285 million years ago when he cashed in and he's selling that for I think $3.5 billion is the number and we'll talk about this when we get back because they are trying to create and it would make sense man he owns Las Vegas Sands okay they're trying to bring that to can you imagine Dallas right the Dallas Mavericks building a brand new stadium and the hook is going to be they'll pay for the brand new stadium they'll do all that they legalize gambling and they build a resort where you have literally the stadium contained within a casino think about those dollars stay tuned folks we're coming back for the open currencies commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report Teddy Kegstad breaks down the forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures forex stocks and options Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs including the dollar index the euro dollar pound dollar dollar Swiss dollar yen as well as many more and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market in the 30 year T bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously when you sign up for the Tiger Forex 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experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's youtube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN Educating Investors and hit watch Tiger TV Welcome back folks we get the market open you get the S&Ps up by 21 points apologize I'm a little stuffed up man we got kids in the house and seems like they're always catching a cold for the last month or two the cease message circles around the house I'm feeling good just a little stuffed up or the markets feeling good this morning man up by 22 we open with the S&Ps up half a percent so finishing that conversation right and this was a cool Twitter thread X thread whatever you're gonna call it so interesting I mean I guess it's eventually gonna be called X but I feel like people are always gonna call it Twitter at some point so think about this for a second right the Adelson family is buying the Mavs the most expensive and clever lobby lobbying play in history okay now what they could and this is all speculation okay but boy it makes a lot of sense when you think about the business they're in they're selling Las Vegas sand stock to secure ownership in the Mavericks okay so eventually they could dangle a fully private funded new arena in a top 5 US city in exchange for the legalization of casino gaming in Texas and build an integrated casino resort within the same complex can you imagine it man now we've seen how Las Vegas has taken off he's probably seen how Las Vegas has taken off in terms of hockey football they have baseball come and I believe right it makes sense with the gambling we have seen some of the gambling houses the sports books they have out there now but you go over some of the facts that line up with this and it does make sense okay and then you look at the fact that Cuban is still running it that could make a lot of sense in the context of everything too okay in January the Dallas Morning News said Las Vegas sands brought on 63 lobbyists for the 2023 session with a mandate to spend up to almost six million dollars of trying to legalize commercial casino gaming okay Cuban has made comments in the past about wanting an integrated casino resort to house a future arena for the team in Dallas who wouldn't want right to be part of a development that where the sports team plays is where the gambling takes place okay the Mavs were the only major sports team in Texas not to strike a sports betting partnership now this gentleman not familiar with who he is okay and he is no authority but it makes sense alright they were the only major sports team in Texas not to strike a sports spending partnership when there were legalization efforts it was odd for them to sit on the sidelines and not take free money from sports book sponsorships but if the goal and focus was casino gaming in Texas and they were aligned with Adelson it makes sense that they could not but this is probably tied to casino gaming and it's tied to potentially cut out what's going on I lose you Mike I just lose my batter you bummer oh it's back okay not sure what happened there let me make sure we're coming through we coming through folks yeah something's going on here well we back okay you got me it would make sense that gaming is involved it would make sense when you get the Adelson family involved that they're looking towards gaming it would make sense that a city like Dallas right you see the amount of money that some of these cities and states have to pay to help a new stadium come about and they would need none of that all they're going to say hey listen we're going to build a $2 billion development we're going to build a new stadium you're going to have the Mavericks you're going to have a huge concede casino enterprise that's going to create jobs it's going to create create tax revenue and you don't have to pay for any of it all you got to do is legalize gambling not a lot of money man when you think about it and and let's put it this way they're not dumping $2 billion or 3.5 okay that money doesn't lose value they could theoretically own this team keep that value and let that value pay for itself without it's you know you pay for lobbyists that value is gone you have to make that value up later you buy the Mavericks for $3.5 billion to use that as clout in your lobbying that money doesn't go away you can probably still sell that if you wanted to different scenario but I found it very interesting now we segue because it's interesting I found out this morning rolling through Instagram as I woke up practically that sports gambling is coming to Tampa did not know this did not know it not a huge sports gambler folks very difficult to make money in sports gambling and to beat the big that's the tough part right there people who can pick more games winners than losers but you have to beat the big you have to be better than the big to be profitable very few people can do that and there are some that can do it for sure but some not a huge sports fan for gambling but yeah the hard rock launches a limited roll out of sports betting app in Florida so this one's going to be interesting it's going to play out the courts they tried to do it two years ago it got shut down originally it looks like it may head back to the Florida Supreme Court first all indications are DeSantis has put in five of the seven members of the Florida Supreme Court seems like they feel like that that Supreme Court will side with DeSantis to go forward here when it makes it to the Supreme Court little bit of a different deal as they talk about the potential where this gambling could be taking place off of tribal lands and that's the different part this is it gets into the Indian reservations right and all that stuff and you they have a quote in here from Brett Kavanaugh previously said in a Penn statement that if the compact authorized gambling off tribal lands it would likely violate what does that stand for they got it up here the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act and post serious constitutional questions not sure how that plays out but nonetheless they're going to let it play out and the Florida Supreme Court probably won't get there until the first quarter of 2024 so legal gambling in sports is coming to Florida man and it's coming in like a week if you got the app already you can use it you can get on the waiting list for the app in a certain ways and you can gamble at Kiosk they have set up at the hard rock in Tampa the next one is when's online poker coming because it's really unfortunate that people can just lose all their money sports gambling online poker still is a black mark that is not brought but hopefully that brings it to the next level and the kicker there is folks because in online poker there are actually a lot of people that can play to a level that they beat the big sports gambling very few people win you went in the short term poker very very very few people win as well okay but it's a much easier game to beat the big in because you're playing against other opponents as opposed to playing against the house and that's why in a casino folks if you ever see like the hard rock in Tampa they bury the poker room in the back of the casino they don't want you to find the poker room they make very little money off the poker room folks you play a you play a cash game you buy in for two hundred dollars let's say you're playing nine handed everyone buys in for two hundred dollars okay that game is raking three to five dollars per hand usually they take money out of the rake per a hand on a percentage basis and you're doing maybe thirty hands an hour something like that okay fails nothing compared to if you have those nine people sitting down at a blackjack table the last thing you want is somebody who's looking for action stumbles upon the poker room and plays poker instead of that person looking for action sits down at blackjack roulette craps back or at whatever it be so maybe that's part of the reason as well nonetheless gambling it's coming and we're seeing a play out with the mavericks getting sold to the adolescent adolescent family and stay tuned for that one as you're going to see that development get pushed forward I imagine because that just makes too much sense when you got a family that's entrenched in gambling right buying a sports team to probably combine the two of them all right in the markets push a little bit higher on the open we just made it to forty five ninety three we're back a bit nasdaq pushing higher check it out up a full percent sixteen thousand two oh three nasdaq what do we three or four percent from all time highs in the nasdaq man sixteen thousand seven sixty seven is that number now up by ninety five we jump over to yields this morning the ten year yeah about thirteen ticks right now and that is going to correlate I think to a number that we're under four point three percent right now four point two seven percent stay tuned folks we'll be talking yields we'll be talking currencies we'll be talking commodities we're coming back with our man teddy keg stat don't go away TFNN has just launched their new trading room the Tiger's Den hosted at Discord TFNN has been educating traders for more than twenty years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours and now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just one dollar for the year there's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders in the Tiger's Den you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members 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this program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ welcome back folks we have the S&Ps up by 29 points right now pushing 45-92 we might see that 4600 number before the end of the program we got yields pulling back a bit to 7 just like that man to talk about some of the action let's jump over to our man Teddy Kegstad folks you can read Teddy's outstanding newsletter the Tiger Forex report every Monday morning he puts out updates throughout the week when warranted you can check that out right under the newsletter tab at TFNN you try it out it's $97 it comes with a 30 day money back guarantee you got a couple webinars you get in there as well so try that out folks and don't forget he's got a couple of great webinars under the services tab Teddy's written an outstanding book on candlesticks he did a webinar for us Japanese candlestick pattern stock and option strategies and he's also got one on calendar stock option spreads in the services section check those out but boy we're going to talk some action today Teddy Kegstad good morning good morning Tommy boy where do you want to kick things off it seems like the trend is intact from the last time we talked we got yields dropping we got the market trading higher and we got a little bit of a break well you know everything you just said is actually happening right now in the marketplace that's for sure you know I think right now you got to look at these markets in the corrective phase still and I think that the levels that we hit yesterday and today especially we had some key areas so I think where we really would you have to look at now is what happens after today so I think that the points that we've trended either up into or down into and the various I think you can see either some stability or on their critical levels that if we take those out then we're starting to look at these what is I think a corrective phase it may not necessarily be a corrective phase anymore so we're kind of at a very good inflection point right now you mentioned some of those pairings which ones you want to jump to I mean I was jumping around as you were doing it for the euro so I'm quite a trend right now even a little bit of a rollover on the dollar yen although that parents are you looking at the most I know you say that you know the dollar index is a basket but sometimes that basket is behaving a little bit differently within it which ones are you really looking at there well I like the high in the pound today I think that's a critical area I think also the euro US dollar it's just shy of a very good price target and these are key areas where I think that it wouldn't surprise me to see a little bit of a pullback and see a little strength in the dollar we had a cell signal in the yield curve on Friday that was negated yesterday so but not by much it's hovering so the yields aren't exactly retreating you know they're kind of just buffering up against resistance so they're not like piercing through that area trying to push the trend and I think you really have to be observant of that like normally you know yields are a good indicator of especially FX movement and right now they're kind of stalling so I think that in this where we're at now we're kind of at a junction point where the currencies are breaking away from the yield function but the thing is you can't break away that much so if the yields just stay where they're at if they're not going to continue to be in retreat it's going to be very hard for the US dollar to be under pressure you know so I'd be very cautious right now especially if you see any type of uptick in yields it's going to be very likely that you'll see a snap back in the various currency pairs versus the dollar pretty dramatic man we're under 4.3% right now on the 10 year we started at over 5% and so is that part of the discussion there just in terms of the dramatic move we've had 7 tenths percent on a 10 year man quite the pullback and we are just pulled up the 10 year as you were talking about I know you look at the 30 year as well a lot but pretty interesting on a price basis the 10 year basically back to that low in March almost to like the tick I got a low there of one 10 12 and we're at one 10 12 so we're running into some resistance on a couple levels but is that really part of that conversation just the size of the move so quickly in yields from above 5 to 4.3% absolutely you are nailing it on the head right there and especially like when you look at the 10 year in the shorter term rates you know they drive interest rates in the short run and they're pretty stretched you know I mean is the market are people happy with yields in retreat of course they are you know especially with you know the uptick that we've had over the last year and a half but if you really look at it on a proportionate basis you know it's just a minor pullback right now you know and also you still have to look at it like you said if you're at March levels and you think about what's happened since then unless we truly go to a pausing or dovish stance odds are that we're pretty much at the cap of where we're going to be you know as far as the retreat on the yields right now you know so it's just the fundamentals and the technicals don't add up for any type of extended rally you know I'm sure that anyone that if they're looking to buy a home or something like that or refinance it finance if they haven't you know they're hoping for a Christmas gift and you know if having lower yields trend into the year which very way may happen but we have to really watch those numbers if we have any inflationary numbers that you know stick out you're going to see I think the yields really rally very quickly you know so I think it's very sensitive right now in as far as where we are at right now you know I mean everybody wants you know or thinks you know consensus wise is that the Fed is done I would be very careful calling that you know that shot you know never try and pick a top or a bottom and I don't know about you how things are in Florida but I go to the store too like everyone else and I don't know where this down taken inflation is because prices at the store aren't going down they're going up you know prices relatively stable but I don't know anything out there that doesn't cost at least 50 to 100 or more percent more than it did just two years ago nothing's coming down you know so unless we see a retraction in pricing you know and I'm not saying necessarily deflation but just some sort of retraction where is this illusion that inflation has disappeared you know so I think it's just not we don't have that force of inflation like we had in 2021 in 2022 you know so but just because the velocity isn't there doesn't mean that inflation has disappeared it's just a shock value I think is gone you know and I think you really have to be mindful of that. Yeah it's going to be interesting to see how people try and get over that hump in the same way that you know you hear inflation is falling and that's really not the case they just wanted to get back to where it's just going up by 2% off the numbers we're dealing with and so people are going to be facing some higher prices going forward man it'll be interesting to see how the Fed may you know meanders that as well you talked about crude you talked about gas what do you think of the price of crude man little volatility we're stuck in the 70s right now but crude up a bit off of the recent lows pushing in 76.94 on my chart. Yes well right now especially the people who read the Tiger Forex report know that crude is right on our directional pivot level so we fell below that that's basically $77 and a quarter level and I think that above that that's a very good support line you know if we can hold below that I wouldn't say it's bearish but I think you could bobble in the $77 to $70 range but above $77 I like it going back up to like $85-$90 if we can sustain that trade you know I mean I think that because we've had you know the what they're calling a prisoner exchange which is really more of a ransom exchange going on in the Middle East I think that's kind of put a pause on oil you know because of that but the tensions haven't stopped what's going on in the Middle East let alone globally so I'd be very mindful of that when it comes to oil and I would be looking for more of an uptick in oil than a down tick. And we will see man I definitely appreciate that price of the pump I'm sure we all do in the face of some pretty lofty as you said that's the one thing right now that sticks out for sure. Teddy I appreciate the time as always man it's always a quick nine minutes folks check out the Tiger Forks report check out those outstanding webinars Teddy has under the services tab and we'll talk to you next week man that was a quick nine minutes I appreciate it as always. Thanks Tommy. Thanks Teddy folks check it out we'll be back to finish up the program don't go away. 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the dollar index right dollar index at 102.82 and it is interesting right Kenny Teddy laid out the case saying you know they're big moves but in the context of things they're not that big of moves I mean look at the move we have right as in yes we have higher price and lower yield okay let's just take this off for a second for some clarity but can you can you even see higher price and lower yield on this chart not quite man if things really get going so me interesting to see you jump over the dollar index quite a pullback in the dollar index but again well off some of the levels that we've seen we even came into the pandemic trading at 97 on the dollar we're still at 102 at a time when we may see yields dropping and weakening the dollar index as we go forward S&P is going to finish this thing up basically at session highs remarkable all right what else we got going on yeah that was pretty much it we talked some black Friday sales yesterday this one was out this morning we'll sum it up with this one is that best buy they got in there it sure is it's best buy they got in there retellers and brands that rely on black Friday the most the day was it done yeah median decline in black Friday sales was 4% median decline for a group of 40 companies that generate a higher percentage of unidate sales from the shopping holiday then their peers and there's some of them so some big winners some big losers in there but overall a little bit of a dip but guess what the markets not worrying man and keep those two numbers on your radar that I've been talking about folks we're talking about 4607 on the S&P's 4634 the recent high and the Nasdaq 100 within a stone's throw of all time highs pretty remarkable all right folks stay tuned we got our man Basil Chapman he's coming up next he did his program live at 8 o'clock tomorrow that's coming up right now we got our man Steve Rohans live at 11 o'clock fast market coming up at 12 you've heard it they're talking three great stocks right they're talking five below they're talking sales force they got a third one in there as well and yeah our man Larry Pincimento live at one my dad Tom O'Brien live from three till four have a great Wednesday folks and we'll see you tomorrow we get inflation data tomorrow morning stay tuned for Basil coming up right now have a great one folks