 Hello everyone, welcome to options with Doug streaming live daily on bookmap discord and The bookmap YouTube channel at 1 30 p.m. Eastern time. Excuse me. Good morning, JC or good afternoon here Thanks for the confirmation welcome Before I get started I need to go through the disclosure general disclosure all book map limited materials information and Presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations risk disclosure Creating futures equities and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results The focus of my presentation and the focus of the options dash Doug Chat channel and discord is options order flow The impact of options markets on stocks and futures and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action I have a two-step process for trading and first is planning and I use positional analysis I look at how traders and market makers are Positioned in the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and Volatility for the day as well as a directional bias And the second step of my process is execution and I look at real-time order flow and book map and Real-time market maker hedging flow and spot gamma hero to confirm my thesis and for setups for entries and exits And this is a new different way of looking at the market many traders Use technical analysis or fundamental analysis fundamental analysis and again. This is something new positional analysis and Finally on topic questions and comments are welcome And I will be watching the options dash Doug chat channel and discord and the chat in YouTube So again, please post your questions and comments. They're they're welcome. All right. Let's get started what I want to talk about today is Economic data and events coming up this week then we'll go through our positional analysis and Talk about a plan and then we'll look at some setups so first of all the let's just take a quick look at the economic calendar for the week and the main event is The FOMC Meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday and then the announcement. I thought I had my pen tool open so the meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday the announcement at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday and then the press conference begins at 2 30 p.m. Eastern Time the normal schedule and I will be on from 130 to 2 I Will be on from 130 to 2 so I'll be on 230 130 to 230 so I will be on for the announcement and then wrapping up as the press conference begins and and In YouTube loose Luke ask Doug will we get a 1080p stream? Yes, join us in discord. I This is all I can do in YouTube and I and I'm seeing a 720p stream on my end on YouTube but in In discord, I'm streaming at 1080p So it should look okay at 720p, but that's that's the highest setting I can I can find on YouTube All right, so that's the ones Wednesday. That's the main event of the week and then just briefly later on the week jobless claims on Thursday and then durable goods orders on Friday at 8 30 a.m. Eastern Time and then there's some PMI data out at 9 45 a.m. And While we're talking about the FOMC, let's just take a quick look at the CME Fed watch tool and this is showing the Projections for the upcoming meeting right now the current Fed target rate is 450 to 475 and the market is pricing in a 27% chance of No move by the Fed Maintaining that current rate and then a 73% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike Okay, so that is the That's the events for the week again the big event for the week and probably For the month is the FOMC Meeting and announcement on Wednesday All right, let's take a look at it. Let's go through our positional analysis now and we'll start looking at some charts and This is the S&P 500 futures the ES and bookmap and Before I dig into this chart. I want to take a look at a larger time frame And this is SPX In a 20-day one-hour chart and thinkorswim and this is showing Just price and key spot gamma levels and these levels are provided to spot gamma subscribers In a think script that you have to manually download or dump data. It just takes a couple of minutes every day and the key levels here This is the put wall at 3,800 again. This is SPX the put wall at 3,800 and that has not changed That's the strike with the largest net negative gamma and that can be expected to act as support and Then 4,000 Well, let me go actually 3950 Next level up that is the volatility trigger And that's spot gammas proprietary gamma flip level and Below that level Market makers are in a negative gamma position and they have to hedge in the direction of price To hedge their delta exposure and a negative gamma environment below that level and then above that level that's their Position on the gamma curve is positive and they have to hedge against price To hedge their delta exposure or they trade against price to hedge their delta exposure and then 4,000 level is the key gamma strike. That's the strike with the largest Absolute gamma and that can be expected to act as support or a resistance or a magnet for price and then finally the call wall at 4065 and Just a reminder that is the call strike of the JP Morgan collar That expires on March 31st at the end of the month Okay, so those are the SPX levels and a larger time frame And what spot gamma was calling for today was for SPX did Most likely stay within a narrow range here between this 3,900 support double and the 3950 Resistance level and that was in the AM founders note. All right, so that is a 20-day chart. Let's take a look at another thinkorswim chart and We'll take a look at a Smaller time frame. This is this is just today a one-day one-minute chart and showing the 3900 level and the 3950 Resistance volatility trigger resistance level and it looks like that has acted as Resistance a couple times and when we look at spy, we'll see that spy the three three ninety four volatility trigger Was actually the resistance Up here. All right, let's go take a look at book map now And the reason I look at those thinkorswim charts is they're just showing price and levels again for SPX What I Have the same levels on this chart. They're just shown a little bit differently. This is the spot gamma Cloud notes provided to spot gamma subscribers. They provide these levels to spot gamma subscribers for a number of different platforms and for book map they are Provided in the form of cloud notes, which are updated automatically And this is showing the There's the 3950 level Spy gamma right now today is using a 40 point difference between ES and SPX and I calculated about a 32 point difference So I'm showing my SPX 3950 level a little bit lower So that is the 3950 resistance level and that I'm showing that in my cloud notes columns And also I'm showing the spy key spy gamma levels And this is the spy 394 volatility trigger and then Down here is the spy 390 key gamma strike so those are the levels are that are in play for today and We will take a look at We'll take a look at setups in a few minutes, so Overall the S&P 500 ES SPX spy has been has been bullish today and Still so far confined within that You know approximately 3900 to 3950 spy 394 level right, let me take a look at questions in In YouTube All right, so Luke. I don't understand your question Overall Delta looking right? I don't understand your question and JC JT and YouTube says he got has 32 point 32.5 difference. I just I round it typically to the closest round number You know, I'm not showing it exact exactly And Luke we will look at hero charts in just a few minutes Okay, so that is the S&P 500 Showing the levels in play and let's talk about shifts in levels And remember last Friday was the March expiration. So Now we're looking for traders to build positions into the next Monthly expiration, which is April 21st. That is the third Friday of the month so a lot of the gamma that Came off on Friday and then we're looking again looking be looking for traders to Rebuild positions Now shifts and levels as far as SPX there were no shifts and levels and Then for spy the pull put wall shifted lower from 390 to 380 And then the call wall shifted higher From 397 to 402 and then the key gamma strike shifted down from 400 to 390 So shifts up and down I would Generally interpret that as slightly bearish for the for spy and Then for QQQ The volatility trigger shifted up one point from 301 to 3 to 302 put wall shifted down from See 290 to 285 and Then the key gamma strike shifted lower from 305 to 300 so somewhat bearish for QQQ as well and Alejandro asked hello, what is your configuration for stops and icebergs? Okay, so Luke and again, we'll look at hero in just a minute When we get to our we through with our positional analysis so question about stops and icebergs, so I have to There are two forms of stops and icebergs Indicators and I'm using both the sub chart and the on chart so on chart I I'm just using the automatic levels For icebergs and stops, so I just set this to automatic individual threshold and Then for sub chart, I'm actually using the sum mode for both stops and icebergs So that is why and the sub chart I have these Continuous lines like that. They're just showing cumulative stop orders Cumulative icebergs so icebergs and blue and stops in yellow And I would this set up I think I have the best of both worlds and the sub chart I can see the sum mode the accumulation and then I can see the events With the on chart indicators Okay, so those are the shifts and levels and let's take a look at the gamma charts now And we'll see where those levels come from so this is the Absolute gamma levels will start with spx and Again, we're going to show where those levels come from This is showing absolute gamma levels Market makers position at these strikes and above the zero line That is showing positive gamma or call gamma and below the line zero line That's negative gamma or put gamma shown with the teal bars below and the black bars above so The key gamma strike or the absolute gamma strike for spx remains at 4,000 And again, that's the strike with the largest Absolute gamma that can be expected to act as support or resistance or a magnet for price And there's the 3,800 put wall the strike with the largest net negative gamma That can be expected to act as support and then there's the 40 65 strike the call wall the strike with the largest net positive gamma That can be expected to act as resistance and again, that's the call strike of the JP Morgan collar That expires at the end of the month So that's spx and note the I'd say the slight dominance of put gamma below the 4,000 level Let's take a look at spy So for spy Now the key gamma strike and still words still have the zero line put gamma or negative gamma below Call gamma or positive gamma above and black And here is the 390 the new 390 key gamma strike And here's 380 the new put wall And now remember the call wall has increased up to 402 and there's a More prominent Dominance of put gamma for spy below the 400 level and while we're on this page. Let's take a look at the combo strikes and this is combining Gamma levels for spx and spy showing those levels in one chart and Converted to an equivalent spx price And note here the recall the volatility triggers at 3950 and There's this that level is about right here and you can see the put gamma below Below the zero line and the call gamma above and that's in a that you know That's showing the the volatility trigger spot gammas proprietary gamma flip level Negative gamma below and positive gamma above Let's take a look at Nasdaq and for Nasdaq. We just look at QQQ and for QQQ 300 is the key gamma strike down from 305 last week 285 is the put wall down from 290 the previous week and then 310 Remains the call wall and note the dominance of put gamma Below the 300 level and call gamma Above that level and then finally it won't actually let no that's it. Well, that's well We'll move on from there. All right, so let's take a look at the data now And the thing that I always like to focus on is The gamma notional this is market makers position on the gamma curve and This is showing spx in the left column spy in the middle column and QQQ in the far right column and this is from the spot gamma am founder's note and Notice for all these indices the the number is negative again This is market makers position on the gamma curve Indicating that market makers position is Negative for all these indices and that means that traders are long puts market makers are short puts and As price falls they have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure and as price increases and implied volatility drops they can buy back their short futures and The changes in gamma notional from last week last Friday were actually mixed so for spx The gamma notional market makers position on the gamma curve became slightly less negative Last Friday it was minus 548 and today. It's minus 518 so slightly less negative But still negative and then spy went the other way last Friday Gamma notional was minus 1430 and today. It's minus 1836 so it became more negative and then last Friday Gamma notional for QQQ was slightly positive at 20 and today it has shifted back to negative at minus 66 So again market makers position on the gamma curve is negative For all these indices indicating that market makers will need to hedge in the direction of price to hedge their delta exposure And that can tend to increase volatility Okay, let's take a look at the vantage charts now that illustrate this concept and What this chart is showing is market makers delta notional and the vertical axis and The price strike price on the horizontal axis so this is showing how market makers delta notional changes with changes in price and Implied volatility that's shown by this green curve here And this is showing that market makers delta notional will increase as price decreases This is typical of a negative gamma environment indicating that market makers will need to Sell futures as price drops again, and they can buy back their short futures as price increases And again the green line is showing that how that changes with implied volatility That's the van effect the change in delta with the change Change in Delta with a change in implied volatility and then the black line is showing how that Delta notional changes time passes and that's the charm effect The change in Delta again is with a change in time as time passes So that's SBX. Let's take a look at spy and this is kind of interesting But anyway, this is a much deeper curve recall that The gamma notional for spy is quite a bit larger than for SPX minus 1836 minus compared with minus 518 for SPX and then finally for QQ Q much more neutral Just a slight slight tilt to the upward tilt to the left All right, then finally in our positional analysis. Let's take a look at the This watch list. This is my key gamma strike list. These are all the stocks on my watch list and I Track the key gamma strike every day the far right column the e column is showing the previous key gamma strike From last Friday from the previous day and then the D column current key gamma strike is showing the key Gamma strike for today at the beginning of the at the beginning of the day and I color code these red or green red indicates that the number Decreased from the previous day and green indicates that it increased from the previous day And I interpret a Decrease in the key gamma strike as bearish traders are looking for lower prices They're accepting lower prices and they're positioning themselves in the options market based on that and then just the opposite for the For a green for an increase. I interpret that as As bullish So bullish for Apple and AMD and bearish for Microsoft Nvidia QQQ Snowflake and spy and then also note the increase in the key gamma strike for VIX indicating traders that were traders were building call positions Above the previous level at 22. All right, so that is That's my positional analysis actually that So we'll talk about the S&P 500 first so Based on this that there's so much going on in the news especially with with financials that My plan really was leaning slightly bearish, but certainly to look at Look at a couple things during the day and the first was VIX and This is for today Actually, let's zoom out and this is the starting overnight So this is starting overnight VIX steadily falling Up until about 1130. It looks like it's made kind of a double bottom at around Just over 24 So that was the first thing and I was looking at so seeing a falling VIX that is a bullish signal and Then also, let's take a look at the financial ETF and notice that it was rising in pre-market trading and Up on the day. I know you you can't see it up here, but up on the day a little bit over 1% And let's just take a look at one other thing what I was so what I was looking for today Was watching these Sector ETFs the spy select sector ETFs and the this morning the XLK Was actually negative on the day and now it's just slightly positive at point one one percent That's the technology sector spider and then notice the financial ETF Right here is up About a little over 1% 1.14% right now So what I was looking for this morning really was a rotation out of technology stocks tech tech was so strong last week That I expected traders to Potentially want to take profits out of those tech stocks and rotate into financials which were somewhat beat up last week and So that lines up with what I saw again on my key gamma strike list here and let's take a look at a Another chart from Microsoft last week and here let's go to Actually, let's take a look at This is the expected move. Let's go to Microsoft so this is This is last week right here. This is the This is Friday, yeah, that's 317. So this is last week starting Here this is a daily chart one-day chart. So this is the These levels right here this that was the upper edge of the expected move lower edge of the expected move so notice how far Microsoft went treated up above the upper edge of the expected move just a crazy move in Microsoft so I was Given this this crazy increase in Microsoft Then notice the decrease in the key gamma strike Then finally, let's take a look at Here we go. This is the this is equity hub for Microsoft and Note here. This is showing the The decrease in the key gamma strike. This is Friday to today even though Microsoft was really strong on Friday So that was what I was looking at and I was looking for Looking for a short in some of these large cap tech stocks Microsoft AMD the stocks that were Really strong last week now AMD did actually have an increase in the key gamma strike but Microsoft had a decrease in the key gamma strike and then I So what I did is I was looking for again looking for a short Looking for rotation out of technology stocks and to financial stocks and I posted my watch list in discord Just before 10 a.m. Brank from the weakest to the strongest I usually post that in alphabetical order, but You know, this is my plan for today And Microsoft was at the top of that list And for those of you who are not Don't have access to Are not not joining us in in discord. I'll first of all, I Invite you to join. It's free and open to everyone Whether you have whether you subscribe to bookmap or not. So anyway, this is what I saw On the morning Microsoft and I'm ranking this by hero signal and what this is showing is the Strength of the hero signal compared to the last 30 days and that's shown by the entire Linked of this slider here and then the colored portion is shown showing the last five days So Microsoft was in the Not at the very lowest but in the low end of the range For the last five days and the last 30 days. So a weak hero signal So that lined up with my thesis and my plan as well So the the crazy move higher last week The drop in the key gamma strike even though Microsoft made that move up and let's zoom in on the morning And this is what I saw In the morning session A very strong confirmation between hedging flow and price action For those of you who may not be familiar with this chart. This is spot gamma hero The white line is price Microsoft price And the purple line is showing Options trades and market maker hedging flow Hero is hero Hedging impact of real-time options And this is showing that traders are taking negative delta positions All right, let's go take a look at book map now Let's go to Microsoft So here is here's Microsoft. I'll zoom in on the morning So recall the Weaker tech stocks today that was my thesis that was my plan looking for Stocks with the weakest hero signal that's I ranked my stocks Like that saw the weak hero signal for Microsoft Again the following key gamma strike Down to 270 here And just looking for bearish setups So that was the plan that was Great setup this morning great short setup All right, let's take a look at some others and note the target at the 270 key gamma strike And the high liquidity at that level A couple of tests of that level All right, let's take a look at AMD. So here's AMD. Let's take a look at hero Look at the morning session This is normally one eye trade. So there's a strong confirmation just like Microsoft not not quite as clean as Microsoft more up and down But traders taking negative delta positions and price responding Let's go back to book map and nice Nice drop this morning nice short setup We'll zoom in on this Okay, so here's Here's AMD Again great short setup and notice that it goes down to the Lower edge of the expected move. That's what this is LEM lower edge of the expected move for the week That's from the options market and also the liquidity Down at 93. So there's your target for AMD good for a Three and a half point move All right, let's take a look at Nvidia and in video not There was a good short setup this morning, but it looks like the The play was to go long Looks like the dip buyers couldn't resist Nvidia All right, so there's Nvidia short setup in the morning Let's take a look at hero to Nvidia. So there's the There's the short setup in uh in the morning and notice how price Increases hero levels off starts to increase So this was uh for me a little bit this long setup was a little bit difficult to interpret You know, I'd want to see more of that confirmation Of hero a stronger rise in hero Before I took along there Let's just zoom out So overall this Delta Is still negative Is just about 90 negative 93.95 Still so hedging flow overall is negative delta The notional value Let's just see what traders are doing So they're buying puts and selling calls and Nvidia Let's take a look at Amazon And different story here Divergence long All right, so RJ ask is Nvidia being driven by zero DTE? And no for monday. There is no zero DTE For Nvidia now it could be driven by next expiration Which is friday, but uh Stocks like Nvidia Have weekly expirations only so QQQ SPI and SPX are the only instruments that have zero DTE options As far as I know All right, so this is a divergence long setup Notice price falling Traders are taking positive delta positions Let's go take a look at At book map take a look at amazon And they're toned down the absorptions and sweeps Seeing too many Small dots So there's the reversal setup Microsoft AMD were much better setups And we'll see tesla was a much the best long By far All right, let's take a look next at meta Go take a look at hero It meta was up and down confirmation law short in the morning And then a divergence long here as hero starts to increase And then price follows About 10 minutes later Let's go take a look at book map So there's the long setup Let's zoom in on this And note there is a somewhat of shift in order flow here Notice all the green dots coming in And a double kind of a triple test of the 194 level All right, so RJ asked you find CVD tells you tells you much information single stocks and not consistently. No You know if it's going in the direction of price that gives me another Another confirmation, but I would not Make a trading decision solely based on CVD One thing that I have been looking at Is And I'm not showing it now. It's it's just too cluttered for For this presentation Is this market pulse Indicator, this is something new I'm there are several different algorithms here. I don't have a one up for meta, but I was watching this this morning There's price change spread change volume pressure I normally look at volume pressure for the Futures es and enqueue and that I've been looking at price change For stocks and you can look at Several of these at the same time. So this morning I was looking at Microsoft Tesla and Nvidia And I could look at one chart and book map and see Give me it's that would give me some kind of indication of what other charts we're doing and anyway, I as soon as I Have a better feel for this. I'll I'll show it and talk about it All right, so that is meta And let's take a look at qqq back to hero So again meta confirmation short and long Look at qqq Take a look in the morning And this is confirming a short At the open Then long after that Let's go take a look at book map So kind of a choppy choppy morning and In qqq before finally moving higher I found the single stocks that I talked about much easier trades All right, let's take a look at the s and p 500 now We've already looked at The es let's take a look at spy So the thing that I saw this morning Actually, let's just leave that let's take a look at Let's go take a look at hero now and I posted this in discord All right, so when In youtube Jec says amazon was a great setup And he's also a huge fan of marketpulse He has a few setups. He's really liking Great, I I'll look for them in discord Okay, so This is the s and p 500 combined signal This is combining options trades for spx spy And xsp Which is insignificant compared to the other other two Into one to combine signal. This is what I look at whether I'm trading es futures or spy shares or spy options or spx options This is the signal that I look at for the s and p 500 So Let's zoom in on this Let's just go So this is showing from the open And what I saw Let's just zoom in about 9 30 to 11 That's what I posted. It's all Kind of I'll zoom in to what I was posting What I posted But still too much Sorry about all the scrolling All right, so anyway, what I'm What this is indicating to me is that Traders are taking negative delta positions As price was increasing toward the spx 3950 level and the spy 394 volatility trigger level and It took a while for this to set up And the thing to do is when you see this, you know, if you're looking for a short You see hero falling like this and it's kind of choppy See hero falling The thing to do is go into book map and just watch order flow on your levels To look for short So let's go to book map now and we'll go to spy And sometimes spy is just a little bit simpler to look at And I have My cloud notes and spy for every stock I have cloud notes And this is showing I showed the key gamma strikes and Or the key daily levels from spot gamma with a white White background red text and a white line Just the basic ground numbers with a yellow line and yellow background So here's the 390 key gamma strike There's the 394 volatility trigger Which did act as resistance So there is the You know, if you were looking for short setup There it is There's the sweep that all those small green dots are a buy sweep into the 394 level and i'm also showing the SPX 3950 level there So a sweep into the 394 and notice i'm showing spy and spx levels. It's important to Keep track of both So a sweep into the 394 level then a break of the trend Trend line at the 3950 level then a short down to Spy 391 And notice the green dots coming in there and all these So that's a buy sweep at that level and then all the blue dots or passive orders Uh absorbing those Sellers So let's go take a look at Let's go back and take a look at hero. So there was a short setup in the s&p 500 and there was a So there's a question earlier about spy and spx looking on the hero chart. Let's go back We'll take a look at hero again. So again, i'm looking at the combined signal. Let's zoom out I'm going to zoom out for the regular trading hours here So there's from about nine o'clock and so far Has been Trending down negative delta positions up until about uh 130 when uh 130 145 eastern time where it seems to be trick uh to uh moving up So this is a combined signal spx and spy. It's combining this signal Which is bullish This is spx So this is pretty typical Uh traders are buying calls and buying puts But the call buyers are winning here. This is one Positive 1.14 billion. That's the notional value versus minus uh 604 million So the call buyers are winning Let's take a look at what spy traders are doing and overall the Hedging flow is negative. That's uh Minus 982. Let's see what traders are doing So for spy the put buyers are winning So their spy and the Overall chart looks a little bit more like spy than spx All right, so rj asks could you see the put call for The s and p 500. All right, so I showed that for spy and spx. We'll take a we'll take a quick look at Here's the s and p 500 Again, we'll take a look at Put some calls So this is showing that in this case put buyers are winning minus 2.7 billion versus 2 billion So put buyers are winning. All right, let's take a look at the rj wants to take a look at zero dte So there it is alone pretty insignificant Compared to the numbers that we just saw and pretty choppy as well There's all trades so In this case zero dte is not having I would say not having as much impact as the overall signal minus 176 million versus minus 963 million So I look at that occasionally But it it generally does not provide Any tradeable information Unless there's just a strong correlation All right, so let's wrap it up. Let's take a look at tesla And as usual tesla, there's a an extremely strong correlation between hedging flow and price action Traders were selling puts and buying calls in the morning And it looks like they've continued Come back from launch and starting to buy calls and sell puts again Let's take a look at book map and we'll wrap it up there So here's tesla And tesla the order flow is In my mind typically pretty easy to read And here's a case There's a question about CVD before from rj and and for rj for tesla. I typically do look at CVD It does provide valuable information And you can see that hero is rising And look at the all these green dots coming in Market buy orders So tesla was very bullish this morning And a quick rise up to the liquidity at 185 and 186 And now it looks like traders are coming in again And in this case the order flow is still Looking bearish. So the trade was long Tesla in the morning shortly after the open With the rising CVD rising hero Okay, that is uh, that's all I had for today. I think I've answered all your questions and Oh, excuse me, uh, so just keep in mind again the f1c meeting starts tomorrow And the announcement On wednesday at 2 p.m And then also wednesday is the vix exploration. There was a Discussion in the spot gamma am founders note About behavior around the vix exploration Sometime last year could lead to a rally But anyway, we'll we'll keep an eye out for that So again, thank you very much for your for watching for your questions and comments And I will see you tomorrow